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ROOKIE DYNASTY 21 - Rnd 1 - Top 3 and a cliff?


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7 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Not true at all, I openly said as much in my first responses that I understood not all one QB leagues are equal.

K

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11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

You'd have to do specific ones for each of - Superflex, TE heavy, ppr/non, FFPC, Zealots...and whatever else. Not that you couldn't.

Yeah it can be done. Not sure I want to but participation is probably the biggest question mark.

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I think the “qb is devalued” idea is pretty dumb. I’ve flipped qbs a number of times when there’s an injury, simply because I had them rostered over some long shot. Someone gets injured and you make an offer. It seems every year there’s someone in one of my leagues who rosters 2 qbs, and they both get injured and they need a qb, and I swoop in and take advantage. 

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7 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I think the “qb is devalued” idea is pretty dumb. I’ve flipped qbs a number of times when there’s an injury, simply because I had them rostered over some long shot. Someone gets injured and you make an offer. It seems every year there’s someone in one of my leagues who rosters 2 qbs, and they both get injured and they need a qb, and I swoop in and take advantage. 

Conversely I hoard QBs and this guy just won a league with only one QB. He even sat his QBs on bye week. 😪

I have now four QBs in this league. And three owners have one QB. I sent them offers. No takes. 
 

I will naturally continue to take a QB if it comes to me, because they are depleted. 🙂

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Conversely I hoard QBs and this guy just won a league with only one QB. He even sat his QBs on bye week. 😪

I have now four QBs in this league. And three owners have one QB. I sent them offers. No takes. 
 

I will naturally continue to take a QB if it comes to me, because they are depleted. 🙂

You have to know who has whom so when there’s an injury (or possible injury) you can take advantage, but you have to be quick to make the offer when the bad news hits.

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Just now, Snorkelson said:

You have to know who has whom so when there’s an injury (or possible injury) you can take advantage, but you have to be quick to make the offer when the bad news hits.

It is a SF and I’m carrying looking at carrying another QB. But maybe they get desperate. Emailed all owners. Hear nothing. I need find higher pay in leagues now due to inactivity. Just a 25 dollar league. 

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6 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The Lindsay snap count is there for him. Maybe he takes more. But like you said he’s more a year 2 play with maybe Flex value this season.

This doesn't work in every format, but generally speaking draft rookies with year two in mind. Not year one. 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

You are confusing value with price.

For Lawrence, sure there’s a price to pay. But one of Wilson lance or fields will be there at the start of rd 3, and I’ll usually take the starter over some teams wr4. Go look at the adp of qbs in rd 3 over the years and the hit rate vs other positions. 

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9 hours ago, menobrown said:

Thanks and I said something to Andy last night but let me be more blunt that if in my leagues you put Trevor was top 8 you are falling victim to dumb rookie love. I say that because before Watson's legal issues I could not get a late first for him so if people did not want to pay a late first for Watson but view Trevor as a big 8 then they are not playing this game correctly. As I said to Andy all one start QB leagues are not equal. The smaller roster FFPC vs larger roster leagues were QB's are not sitting on the market all over does make a difference so I'm not saying it's wrong to have Trevor in that class in your leagues, but I'm calling it dumb rookie love in mine.

And I certainly don't see that second tier like you got but I'm now at time of the year I must keep that to myself.

I get what you're saying here but it's not necessarily the same people that wouldn't pay a late 1st for pre-lawsuit Watson that are drafting Trevor in that spot, right?

It's entirely plausible that the people drafting Trevor there would also have paid that pick for a pre-lawsuit Watson.  Additionally I think some of the luster has worn off the late 1st round picks with the way the draft worked out this year so it's also plausible that people who wouldn't have paid a late 1st for a Watson quality QB two months ago would do so now.

If I recall Andrew Luck typically went around 1.05 in 1qb leagues the year he came out.  I didn't play FFPC at the time (I'm not even sure if FFPC dynasty existed then) and obviously FFPC de-values QBs more than most leagues, but I don't think Trevor being in the 1.08-1.10 range is at all out of line with past QB prospects of his caliber, especially given the general disappointment people have for the RBs/WRs available in the late 1st this year.

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7 hours ago, Blackbear said:

Conversely I hoard QBs and this guy just won a league with only one QB. He even sat his QBs on bye week. 😪

I have now four QBs in this league. And three owners have one QB. I sent them offers. No takes. 
 

I will naturally continue to take a QB if it comes to me, because they are depleted. 🙂

This is a super crucial piece and in FFPC I can tell you this isn't the case. But if QBs *are* depleted then I think the script flips and I would agree.

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11 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I get what you're saying here but it's not necessarily the same people that wouldn't pay a late 1st for pre-lawsuit Watson that are drafting Trevor in that spot, right?

It's entirely plausible that the people drafting Trevor there would also have paid that pick for a pre-lawsuit Watson.  Additionally I think some of the luster has worn off the late 1st round picks with the way the draft worked out this year so it's also plausible that people who wouldn't have paid a late 1st for a Watson quality QB two months ago would do so now.

If I recall Andrew Luck typically went around 1.05 in 1qb leagues the year he came out.  I didn't play FFPC at the time (I'm not even sure if FFPC dynasty existed then) and obviously FFPC de-values QBs more than most leagues, but I don't think Trevor being in the 1.08-1.10 range is at all out of line with past QB prospects of his caliber, especially given the general disappointment people have for the RBs/WRs available in the late 1st this year.

I think your mixing up a point about no one would give me a first for Watson with Trevor being part of the the top 8 tier. It's not the same discussion, not to me. For me I don't think Trevor is worth a first round pick but I expect he will be in some leagues but I don't see his ADP being 8 or in any league of mine being drafted over one of the top 7.

I do think some of the luster wore off the last first round but as we discussed earlier the top 7 did not change and that's what this discussion emanated from, at least for me, that Trevor was a part of that big 7 and thus made it a big 8. But yes you are correct that a non-legally bound Watson likely for sure and possibly  Trevor will be first round picks now based on two things, the thinning out of the first round quality as you stated AND we are past cutdown dates. But again, the discussion was centered on Trevor being part of tier 7 and he's not and he won't be in my leagues, not for the people who passed on Watson or anyone.

On your point on Luck and RG3 they were the last QB's to go in round one of an FFPC league of mine and while that's partly due not having a fantasy grade as high on an incoming QB as those two had it's more about the landscape of the QB market drastically changing in the last 10 years.

Last season QB12 averaged 24 a game. You can go all the way down to QB23 and get 20 PPG.

In 2011, the year before Luck and RG3 game out which would have been the data we were looking at, QB12 averaged 18.6 fantasy points a game. 

It's a numbers game. 12 teams, 14 man roster spots and the guy who was QB23 last year would have been a top 10 QB in 2011. This is why QB's can be had way cheaper then when those two came out, demand used to exceed supply and now it's reversed.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

For Lawrence, sure there’s a price to pay. But one of Wilson lance or fields will be there at the start of rd 3, and I’ll usually take the starter over some teams wr4. Go look at the adp of qbs in rd 3 over the years and the hit rate vs other positions. 

Yes, that's kind of the point I've been trying to make.

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