I get what you're saying here but it's not necessarily the same people that wouldn't pay a late 1st for pre-lawsuit Watson that are drafting Trevor in that spot, right?
It's entirely plausible that the people drafting Trevor there would also have paid that pick for a pre-lawsuit Watson. Additionally I think some of the luster has worn off the late 1st round picks with the way the draft worked out this year so it's also plausible that people who wouldn't have paid a late 1st for a Watson quality QB two months ago would do so now.
If I recall Andrew Luck typically went around 1.05 in 1qb leagues the year he came out. I didn't play FFPC at the time (I'm not even sure if FFPC dynasty existed then) and obviously FFPC de-values QBs more than most leagues, but I don't think Trevor being in the 1.08-1.10 range is at all out of line with past QB prospects of his caliber, especially given the general disappointment people have for the RBs/WRs available in the late 1st this year.
I think your mixing up a point about no one would give me a first for Watson with Trevor being part of the the top 8 tier. It's not the same discussion, not to me. For me I don't think Trevor is worth a first round pick but I expect he will be in some leagues but I don't see his ADP being 8 or in any league of mine being drafted over one of the top 7.
I do think some of the luster wore off the last first round but as we discussed earlier the top 7 did not change and that's what this discussion emanated from, at least for me, that Trevor was a part of that big 7 and thus made it a big 8. But yes you are correct that a non-legally bound Watson likely for sure and possibly Trevor will be first round picks now based on two things, the thinning out of the first round quality as you stated AND we are past cutdown dates. But again, the discussion was centered on Trevor being part of tier 7 and he's not and he won't be in my leagues, not for the people who passed on Watson or anyone.
On your point on Luck and RG3 they were the last QB's to go in round one of an FFPC league of mine and while that's partly due not having a fantasy grade as high on an incoming QB as those two had it's more about the landscape of the QB market drastically changing in the last 10 years.
Last season QB12 averaged 24 a game. You can go all the way down to QB23 and get 20 PPG.
In 2011, the year before Luck and RG3 game out which would have been the data we were looking at, QB12 averaged 18.6 fantasy points a game.
It's a numbers game. 12 teams, 14 man roster spots and the guy who was QB23 last year would have been a top 10 QB in 2011. This is why QB's can be had way cheaper then when those two came out, demand used to exceed supply and now it's reversed.