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Antonio Gates (1 Viewer)

J

Jack Ham & Eggs

Footballguy
Dynasty question for you sharks:

Assuming everything else is equal, how good of a RB would you be willing to trade for Antonio Gates? About how many RBs would you rank ahead of him in dynasty value?

We all know RBs are the life blood of most FF leagues, but Gates definitely has some attraction as the clear-cut #1 TE and a guy that figures to hold pretty steady value for the next 5-6 years.

Plus for Gates: RB value is somewhat volatile and he should be rock solid in the 150 range for the foreseeable future.

Minus for Gates: He probably won't provide the "home run" value that the right RB prospect could yield (think 1,500 yards, 12-15 TDs).

What about the switch to Philip Rivers? Is that a possible red flag?

Do you think Gates has already reached his upside or can he go even higher?

 
Gates tends to get late 2nd round-early 3rd in dynasty league start up drafts.

That's the same place as the 2nd tier of RBs are going. So not LT2, Shaun Alexander or even Rudi Johnson. But in the same ballpark as Reuben Droughs, Willie Parker etc.

 
Gates tends to get late 2nd round-early 3rd in dynasty league start up drafts.

That's the same place as the 2nd tier of RBs are going. So not LT2, Shaun Alexander or even Rudi Johnson. But in the same ballpark as Reuben Droughs, Willie Parker etc.
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In a dynasty league, start a TE, there's no way you trade him for FWP/Droughns. Yes that's where he'd end up in an initial draft. But if they league has been running a few years, you're not going to grab Gates for a questionable RB2.

If the guy is loaded at RB, and has very little by the way of TE, he will pay more then the average person. But you should be able to get KJ/JJ/Westbrook/DD range.

Dynasty Rankings

Gates is about 21. Depending on your league, he might be worth more or less. Do you have a flex RB? Are you starting Gates as a WR? Both can have huge effects on his value.

 
I'm especially interested in how people compare him to the RB10 to RB20 crowd.
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In dynasty, you don't trade away the #1 TE in the league for a questionable RB. There's 8-10 questionable RBs every year. Gates should be a solid performer for years. Which is why it's hard to get good value. You really need someone who has a hardon for gates.Pencil gates in for the next 6 years.

Or trade him for an unproven RB who might not even be a good RB2 for THIS year, let alone the next 6.

There's lots of hidden benefits. Don't have to draft TEs, could just keep 2 TEs on the roster. Gates will give you a 1-2-3 pt edge each week. I'd keep him and enjoy it.

Unless someone has a huge man crush on Gates, I would not move him.

 
I'm probably going to catch a *LOT* of flak over this, but here goes anyway...

I'm using the FBG dynasty rankings as a starting point, just to get an idea. I'm also dealing with THEORETICALS here- obviously, I would trade the least I could possibly trade to get him, so if someone would ship him to be for Reuben Droughns, I'd do that instead. With that said... looking at that list, I would trade anyone on it up to and including Ronnie Brown for Antonio Gates without hesitating for a second. I would probably trade Cadillac for him, too, but I'd have to think about that one for a bit. Yes, this means that I would rank Antonio Gates as the #5 player in the entire NFL. Seriously. Just hear me out, first, and then throw all the stones you want.

Point #1- He's a proven commodity. Let's look at RBs #6-10 on that list. We've got Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Lamont Jordan, and Rudi Johnson. These 5 RBs have combined to produce four 1,000 yard seasons. They've combined to produce TWO 1,050+ yard seasons (both by Johnson). In fact, outside of Rudi Johnson, Antonio Gates has produced about as much as the other 4 combined. He produced a fantastic, record-setting season... and then he went out and improved upon it. There's pretty much no chance of Gates busting right now, outside of injury. Which brings us to point #2.

Point #2- Injuries. RBs incur injuries at a much higher rate than TEs. If I'm going to be spending a first-round pick on someone, I want it to be someone who will be around, playing, scoring me points. I want my stud guy to be on the field, every single game, for years on end. Which brings us to point #3.

Point #3- Career lengths. Tight Ends are productive for longer than RBs. Simple fact of life.

Point #4- Production compared to peers. An elite TE will be worth a lot in VBD formats, because there are so few. Every team heavily utilizes its RBs. Not every team heavily utilizes its TEs. To use Gonzalez as a basis for comparison- there was a 6 year span where, if after the season was over you went and ranked every player in the league based on their final VBD number, Gonzo was one of the top 36 players every single time. Which means anything you got him in the third round, he performed up to his draft status. How many RBs have performed like a 3rd-round pick or better every year for 6 straight seasons, VBD-wise? Not many. How many of the current crop of RBs do I think are capable of accomplishing such a feat? 5 of them. Alexander, Tomlinson, Johnson, Portis, and maybe Caddy Williams. Maybe. And I'm not even sure if I'm that confident about Alexander (age), Tomlinson (workload), or Cadillac (unproven), either.

Show me an RB who might be worth 2 points a game more than every other RB in the entire league for the next 6 seasons, and I'll show you an RB who I'd rather have than Antonio Gates for dynasty.

 
Are we talking redraft value or dynasty value?

Also, if you want him compared to a position, you'd have to give specific players for an accurate response IMHO.

 
I'm probably going to catch a *LOT* of flak over this, but here goes anyway...

I'm using the FBG dynasty rankings as a starting point, just to get an idea. I'm also dealing with THEORETICALS here- obviously, I would trade the least I could possibly trade to get him, so if someone would ship him to be for Reuben Droughns, I'd do that instead. With that said... looking at that list, I would trade anyone on it up to and including Ronnie Brown for Antonio Gates without hesitating for a second. I would probably trade Cadillac for him, too, but I'd have to think about that one for a bit. Yes, this means that I would rank Antonio Gates as the #5 player in the entire NFL. Seriously. Just hear me out, first, and then throw all the stones you want.

Point #1- He's a proven commodity. Let's look at RBs #6-10 on that list. We've got Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Lamont Jordan, and Rudi Johnson. These 5 RBs have combined to produce four 1,000 yard seasons. They've combined to produce TWO 1,050+ yard seasons (both by Johnson). In fact, outside of Rudi Johnson, Antonio Gates has produced about as much as the other 4 combined. He produced a fantastic, record-setting season... and then he went out and improved upon it. There's pretty much no chance of Gates busting right now, outside of injury. Which brings us to point #2.

Point #2- Injuries. RBs incur injuries at a much higher rate than TEs. If I'm going to be spending a first-round pick on someone, I want it to be someone who will be around, playing, scoring me points. I want my stud guy to be on the field, every single game, for years on end. Which brings us to point #3.

Point #3- Career lengths. Tight Ends are productive for longer than RBs. Simple fact of life.

Point #4- Production compared to peers. An elite TE will be worth a lot in VBD formats, because there are so few. Every team heavily utilizes its RBs. Not every team heavily utilizes its TEs. To use Gonzalez as a basis for comparison- there was a 6 year span where, if after the season was over you went and ranked every player in the league based on their final VBD number, Gonzo was one of the top 36 players every single time. Which means anything you got him in the third round, he performed up to his draft status. How many RBs have performed like a 3rd-round pick or better every year for 6 straight seasons, VBD-wise? Not many. How many of the current crop of RBs do I think are capable of accomplishing such a feat? 5 of them. Alexander, Tomlinson, Johnson, Portis, and maybe Caddy Williams. Maybe. And I'm not even sure if I'm that confident about Alexander (age), Tomlinson (workload), or Cadillac (unproven), either.

Show me an RB who might be worth 2 points a game more than every other RB in the entire league for the next 6 seasons, and I'll show you an RB who I'd rather have than Antonio Gates for dynasty.
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Very good post and I agree with all of your points. I think some people have a hard time switching from redraft to initial dynasty draft thinking. I took Antonio Gates at 2.01 of a 12 team league (Hyperactive) a few weeks ago. This is a 1 ppr league by the way, and I was ridiculed by a few that I reached. I just don't see it that way. After the first handful of RBs, you're just taking too much of a chance on unproven guys who have short careers.
 
I can see your point but than you better bring in the WR's because there is alot more I would rather have than Gates. TE seems to be a very deep position now. Kind of getting to be like the QB spot. In most leagues you need one TE but could use a combo of 5 RB/WR and there is 96 starters available. In 12 team league you need 60, so just under 2/3 compared to 28 TE's and needing 12(take out some that are basically useless) and 32 QB's and need 12. Supply and demand in the end. I am pretty happy with Clark/Troupe as my TE if I dont have to briing some clunker on the field at other positions.

 
I don't own Gates in any league, but I'd rank right below McGahee, above Kevin Jones / Julius Jones / Benson, etc. Around #12 overall.

As for WR, after Fitz/CJ/SS I'd consider Gates.

I agree with the depth of the position being stronger, but I'm assuming I could trade my other TEs for lesser WRs. Also, a key is whether you're allowed to start more than 1 TE. If not, you have to balance the lineup reqirements.

 
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I can see your point but than you better bring in the WR's because there is alot more I would rather have than Gates. TE seems to be a very deep position now. Kind of getting to be like the QB spot. In most leagues you need one TE but could use a combo of 5 RB/WR and there is 96 starters available. In 12 team league you need 60, so just under 2/3 compared to 28 TE's and needing 12(take out some that are basically useless) and 32 QB's and need 12. Supply and demand in the end. I am pretty happy with Clark/Troupe as my TE if I dont have to briing some clunker on the field at other positions.
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I wouldn't rank any WRs above Gates. Too volatile. History says that there are going to be a couple of WRs that will be top-12 for the next 5 or 6 years, but I'm not as certain who those are going to be, whereas with Gates I'm pretty certain that he'll be a top-2 TE for the next 5 or 6 years.I would rank Chad Johnson and Steve Smith pretty close behind Gates. I'd also have Fitz and Boldin in the discussion, although I'm concerned because I don't know who will develop into the #1 option, or if they'll stay 1a/1b. 1a/1b is fine when they both get 100+ catches, but I wouldn't bank on that every year.

 
16 Team Dynasty League --this offseason deal after Brees went to NO

I gave: KJones (sick of him after last year), CMart and LJSmith

I got: Gates, Ward, Rookie 1.09

 
16 Team Dynasty League --this offseason deal after Brees went to NO

I gave: KJones (sick of him after last year), CMart and LJSmith

I got: Gates, Ward, Rookie 1.09
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:jawdrop: :ph34r:
 
I'm especially interested in how people compare him to the RB10 to RB20 crowd.
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I'd trade RB10 on my dynasty team for Gates right now without thinking about it. You can find another RB10 in a year...you can't find another Gates.
 
There are certain difference makers, and Gates is one. Tomlinson and Larry Johnson at RB are two more. Manning at QB is a difference maker.

Difference makers are the players that take you over the top. Steve Smith was one last year.

Gates seems to be a player that will elevate a roster. Take you over the top while saving you roster space.

In an initial Dynasty draft I would look at Gates around the early to mid 2nd round, in a 12 team league.

 
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Yeah I agree pretty much with everyone else -- a RB2 is about his worth. You may even be able to weasel a rookie pick or a QB or WR out of it, too, depending on how badly the owner wanting Gates needs a TE, and how badly he's pushing for him.

Also depends on the scoring system. If it's PPR or even 2PPR, Gates is worth a TON, and ranks right up there with the top WRs, and could definitely command a RB2 + more...

 
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I'm impressed! Twenty posts on Gates without anyone saying he was worthless because of Rivers. That sets this thread apart from all others this offseason regarding Gates.

 
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