SSOG
Moderator
I see you're aaaaaaaaaalmost ready to put Ronnie Brown above Michael Turner. Give it another week, I suppose.
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Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I definitely considered it. Turner is still getting the edge for reliability.I see you're aaaaaaaaaalmost ready to put Ronnie Brown above Michael Turner. Give it another week, I suppose.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
EthnicFury
Footballguy
i was very pleasantly surprised by what Brown did against the Jets. Just traded for him in my main dyno and was expecting a down month (what with 2 jets matchups and a bye) before rounding into form for the late season (especially the ff playoffs)apparently I was criminally underrating him. this guy is a studI definitely considered it. Turner is still getting the edge for reliability.I see you're aaaaaaaaaalmost ready to put Ronnie Brown above Michael Turner. Give it another week, I suppose.
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road warrior
Footballguy
Hey guys! I'm new here and this was the thread I've been looking for.My first year playing Dynasty. Taking some lumps with underachievers and mega-injuries. But, I still believe I have a good team (if and when healthy).We started a 10-team; 25 man active roster; 5 taxi squad league. Looking forward to bouncing some thoughts off of ya.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Welcome!
SSOG
Moderator
What do you mean by reliability? Are we talking about game-to-game consistency, season-to-season consistency, or some perceived difference in durability/injury risk?
It's actually kind of funny, just a day or two ago I was tempted to ask if I was crazy for thinking Ben was a top 5 dynasty QB going forward, and now you've updated your rankings and have Roofles 6th. The only difference between ours is I've got Roethlisberger 5th and Brady 6th (and I've got Ryan down in the Brady/Ben tier with Schaub and Rivers).Speaking of Schaub... why no love? He's pretty much a Philip Rivers clone. Both QBs were the same age/experience. Both QBs sat on the bench behind pro bowlers for two years before finally getting their shot in 2007. Both QBs have put up essentially identical numbers in their last 16 starts. The only real difference is that Schaub got cheap shotted last year and Rivers didn't. Schaub's plenty good enough to hold onto his job for years to come, he's got great weapons and he knows how to use them, and I really think he's got room to grow as the Houston offense gets more dangerous.Actually, the parallels between the two are really eerie and extend to the rest of the offense. Both offensive lines are mediocre in pass protection and among the league worst in run blocking. They've both got a disappointing young RB who is a worse runner than advertised. I think Johnson/Daniels is pretty comparable to Jackson/Gates in the weapons department. Both play for teams with abysmal run defenses. Is it just me, or is this year's Texans and Chargers the same exact team?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
All of the above plus Ricky Williams.
I'm docking Schaub just a little bit for the following reasons: 1. FragilityIt's actually kind of funny, just a day or two ago I was tempted to ask if I was crazy for thinking Ben was a top 5 dynasty QB going forward, and now you've updated your rankings and have Roofles 6th. The only difference between ours is I've got Roethlisberger 5th and Brady 6th (and I've got Ryan down in the Brady/Ben tier with Schaub and Rivers).Speaking of Schaub... why no love? He's pretty much a Philip Rivers clone. Both QBs were the same age/experience. Both QBs sat on the bench behind pro bowlers for two years before finally getting their shot in 2007. Both QBs have put up essentially identical numbers in their last 16 starts. The only real difference is that Schaub got cheap shotted last year and Rivers didn't. Schaub's plenty good enough to hold onto his job for years to come, he's got great weapons and he knows how to use them, and I really think he's got room to grow as the Houston offense gets more dangerous.Watch what he does his next two games.How about
Falling:
Tom Brady?
Just saying
Actually, the parallels between the two are really eerie and extend to the rest of the offense. Both offensive lines are mediocre in pass protection and among the league worst in run blocking. They've both got a disappointing young RB who is a worse runner than advertised. I think Johnson/Daniels is pretty comparable to Jackson/Gates in the weapons department. Both play for teams with abysmal run defenses. Is it just me, or is this year's Texans and Chargers the same exact team?
2. Not a good red-zone QB
3. A better fantasy QB than NFL QB, which is fine for re-draft but leaves a bit to be desired in Dynasty.
Edit to add: I'm not seeing Philip Rivers. I think Marc Bulger is a much better comp for Schaub.
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SSOG
Moderator
I put the "perceived" because we really can't know the truth of any injury concerns. Brown might be more injury prone. Turner might be more injury prone. We can't know one way or another, and I really don't think there's anywhere NEAR enough evidence to slap Ronnie with the label. He was the picture of health in college. He was perfectly healthy in 2005. He missed time in 2006 with a broken hand. He missed time in 2007 with a knee injury. He was the picture of health in 2008. His two injuries are both entirely unrelated and hold absolutely no predictive value going forward. Michael Turner was the picture of health last year, but so was Ronnie Brown. If anything, Ronnie Brown has a longer track record of being able to handle a workload than Turner has.Really, I always thought you were good about recognizing the difference between someone who has had unlucky injuries (like a broken hand) and someone who is legitimately injury prone. I really think you're way off base on this. Ronnie Brown has far too long of a history of durability to knock him based on a broken hand and a torn ligament (which he's fully recovered and 2 years removed from).
As for the rest of it... his game-to-game consistency is perfectly in line with what you'd expect from a player with his year-end totals (i.e. RB25 is less consistent than RB2, because he simply scores fewer points). His season-to-season consistency is fine, too. He was an elite RB in 2007, he was a solid RB in 2008 when he was 1 year removed from a 2-year injury. He's an elite RB again in 2009. That's a perfectly expected career arc. You want to talk about no year-to-year consistency, Turner's the back to knock- his ypc has dropped from 4.5 to 3.7, and he has no real history to set my mind at ease.
And as for Ricky Williams... Miami knows who their best player is. Ricky gets his after Ronnie's already rolling. Plus, Ricky's 32. Not much of a threat going forward. Certainly much less of a threat than, say, Jonathan Stewart.
I agree with #3, but only because Schaub is an elite fantasy QB (think: Philip Rivers) and only an above average NFL QB (think: Matt Hasselbeck). Above average is plenty good enough in the NFL where you don't have to worry about competition, at least at the QB position.I don't really agree with #2. He's no Ben Roethlisberger, but he gets the job done. And as bad as the running game has been, he's going to be getting a ton of chances.
As for #1... I've discussed my thoughts on it. If a guy injures his knee because he gets cheap-shotted repeatedly, I give him a pass.
F&L, thanks for the updated RB tiers.
This is only my 2nd year managing a 20-player dynasty team.
In a 12-team non-ppr dynasty team would you ultimately rather have:
1RB from Tier 1 + 3 RB's from Tier 3
or
1RB from Tier 1 + 1 RB from Tier 2 + 1RB from Tier 3
When building a dynasty do you trade 2 from the depth at Tier 3 (PT, Lynch, Mendenhall) to try to land a Tier 2 RB (ex: Moreno)?
My other RB's are Tier 6&7 (Washington/Hightower).
I'm thinking since we start 2RB and 1 Flex that I would rather have the higher tier RB's (CJ/Moreno) for my starters and then choose from whatever's left in my Tier 3 (ex: Mendehall) or my best available WR matchup for my Flex.
Or is it better to have the depth at Tier 3 and play the strongest matchups?
Thanks again for all that you do.
This is only my 2nd year managing a 20-player dynasty team.
In a 12-team non-ppr dynasty team would you ultimately rather have:
1RB from Tier 1 + 3 RB's from Tier 3
or
1RB from Tier 1 + 1 RB from Tier 2 + 1RB from Tier 3
When building a dynasty do you trade 2 from the depth at Tier 3 (PT, Lynch, Mendenhall) to try to land a Tier 2 RB (ex: Moreno)?
My other RB's are Tier 6&7 (Washington/Hightower).
I'm thinking since we start 2RB and 1 Flex that I would rather have the higher tier RB's (CJ/Moreno) for my starters and then choose from whatever's left in my Tier 3 (ex: Mendehall) or my best available WR matchup for my Flex.
Or is it better to have the depth at Tier 3 and play the strongest matchups?
Thanks again for all that you do.
editor47
Footballguy
All right. I've finagled my roster to the point where I can roster a 2nd QB in my keeper league.
I did this with the intention of getting Chad Henne. Josh Johnson is also available. My other QB is Schaub.
Am I overthinking adding Henne? I prefer to have a QB on a more fantasy friendly offense. I like th guys who throw 40 times a game and have no running game. Miami is the opposite. And he doesn't have a true No. 1 WR.
I did this with the intention of getting Chad Henne. Josh Johnson is also available. My other QB is Schaub.
Am I overthinking adding Henne? I prefer to have a QB on a more fantasy friendly offense. I like th guys who throw 40 times a game and have no running game. Miami is the opposite. And he doesn't have a true No. 1 WR.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
without knowing who else is available for the roster spot, he's definitely more rosterworthy than josh johnson
SSOG
Moderator
Chad Pennington was the #10 fantasy QB in this offense last year, so the potential is there. In the end, it depends on what you think of Henne as a talent. If you think he's a quality QB (which I do), then you have to believe that the team will build around him going forward. He might not have great WRs right now, but the team will get him some. The team might be run-oriented right now, but in three years Ronnie will be 30 and Ricky will be 35 (!!!). Things change fast in the NFL (remember that Buffalo example I gave regarding Lee Evans a few posts up?). The only constant is that if a guy is a top-25% talent, the front office will do whatever it takes to feature him... and I think that Henne has all the potential to be a top 25% talent. Will he live up to that potential? Who knows, but at least he's off to a good start.The other relevant piece of information is what kind of keeper league? How many players are kept, and how deep are the rosters? If you had to fight just to fit a second QB on your roster, you probably aren't going to have the roster space to hold Henne for two more years while you patiently await his development.
editor47
Footballguy
we have 15 man rosters. we can protect 10 each season. i have a core of:schaubpetersoncjohnsonpierreturnercolstonboldini have mike sims-walker, but if it came down to it it would be an easy decision to keep henne. the top RB/WR in our league scoring system is 23rd. i have some very good defensive players:kirk morrsondj williamsjared mayowe start 13 of 15 guys on a weekly basis so the LBs have definite value. but, again, its very QB driven. i had bulger and hasselbeck as recently as 2 years ago, but i knew they were closing in on being done. so i decided to start looking to the future. eventually, i got schaub. i've toyed around looking for that other QB ... i've drafted too late to get sanchez, stafford and ryan the last 2 years. i missed the boat on flacco. i honestly don't think i know enough about henne ... so i came here. he looked good monday. he outperformed brees against the jets defense.i guess i'll pick up henne ... thanks to everyone on here.
Easy question here.
Because of Preseason Hype, i rostered James Davis with a 3.0 Million Contract for 2 Years in a Salary Cap & Contract Years Dynasty League.
Is it better to put him on IR keeping him for next year or is it better to cut him? Does he have any chances of being the next Year Cleveland N°1 Back?
Because of Preseason Hype, i rostered James Davis with a 3.0 Million Contract for 2 Years in a Salary Cap & Contract Years Dynasty League.
Is it better to put him on IR keeping him for next year or is it better to cut him? Does he have any chances of being the next Year Cleveland N°1 Back?
Portis and Westbrook are nearly at the end of their Fantasy Football careers. Unless you are a contender, you should keep Harvin and Avoid at all costs both of them.
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fsufan
Footballguy
i do feel my team is a contender. do i trade harvin for a one week play?QBs Cutler, J Edwards, T Flacco, J Freeman, J Sanchez, M Vick, M RBsBarber, M Gore, F Jackson, S Maroney, L Moore, M Ringer, J Sproles, D Tomlinson, LWR/TEs Bowe, D Harvin, P Jones, J Moss, R Naanee, L Wayne, R Gates, A
NOOOOO Way do I trade Harvin for Portis or Westy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They both look finished this year from the couple of games I've seen each. "Finished" may be too harsh a word but neither are nearly as dynamic as they once were. Portis in particular looks sluggish and has fared poorly against a string of horrible run defenses: St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Carolina (he did score two TDs but didn't look good).Westbrook started to decline last season and seems to be at the end of his rope - McCoy is starting to be worked into the offense.
I don't think either will help you out that much but if you really need a back I would suggest not "overpaying". I'd see if their owner would take more of a prospect type WR, not one that has already showed the league what he's capable of.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Depends on starters and PPR, but I would def. keep Harvin. You can't get enough RB starters out of Gore, Jackson, Barber, and Tomlinson/Sproles? Your WR depth is weak for the long-term.
Don't do this trade. Westbrook shares the load with McCoy, Portis has been awful since the beginning of the Season: according to FOL they aren't even Top 30 RBs, and i agree with him.Harvin is a Future WR Stud, keep him on your Roster. Play with S.Jax & LT this week. One loss today is better than losing a Future Star in A Dynasty League.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't even see why you need either. You have Barber and Gore's bye week covered by Jackon and Tomlinson this week.
fsufan
Footballguy
non PPR start1-QB-2-RBs- 3-WR/TE(sameposition),1-Flex
munchkin
Footballguy
I traded Westy and D Keller for Roddy White before he blew up last week. I needed a good young WR and was able to trade with a contending team that had great WR depth and needed to shore up their RB depth.I don't know about MSW's long term value but I might feel better about having Westy over Portis and Stewart in the short run.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I haven't read a lot about Joe Flacco's dynasty value on these boards. What's the consensus?
I have Romo in my dynasty league, and I have a great corps of WRs in Fitzgerald, Burleson, Vincent Jackson, and Desean Jackson. Another owner (he's a Cal fan with bad WRs) offered to give me Flacco for Desean Jackson and Jermichael Finley. No way am I giving up Finley and Jackson. So I turned him down. But he's desperate, and I am considering offering him Desean for Flacco straight up.
Thoughts on Flacco?
I have Romo in my dynasty league, and I have a great corps of WRs in Fitzgerald, Burleson, Vincent Jackson, and Desean Jackson. Another owner (he's a Cal fan with bad WRs) offered to give me Flacco for Desean Jackson and Jermichael Finley. No way am I giving up Finley and Jackson. So I turned him down. But he's desperate, and I am considering offering him Desean for Flacco straight up.
Thoughts on Flacco?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
What's there to be high about? Every time Choice plays, he outproduces Barber. As we've seen in the past (and as should be self-evident), when the backup can produce just as well as the starter it's bad news for the starter's long-term value. Then there's Felix Jones to work into the mix too.There have always been concerns about MBIII's kamikaze style leading to injuries, and he's now suffered a nagging injury for the second straight season. The Cowboys RBs coach expects Barber to be hampered by the quad injury for the next 10 weeks.
BradtheAg
Footballguy
healthy choice outperforms injured barber. when both are healthy choice can't touch him. i'm really pleased with choice but he's not anywhere near as talented as barber. felix is a huge threat, but he seems even more injury prone than barber so far.
the injuries are a concern i guess. i hadn't heard the "10 weeks" comment, where did you hear that?
the injuries are a concern i guess. i hadn't heard the "10 weeks" comment, where did you hear that?
FUBAR
Footballguy
:tapsfoot:They're equal RBs IMO. Both have a bright future. Rice's upside may be higher.IRay Rice in PPR leagues. I just received an offer in our startup Footballguys Dynasty Thread league (where I have Rice as my RB3). It was essentially Kevin Smith for Rice straight up. I didn't come close to accepting. There's no question I'd rather have Rice than Brandon Marshall.
SSOG
Moderator
Start Harvin at your flex instead of Westy or Portis. I wouldn't be surprised to see him outscore them both.
MSW is a promising young WR. Westy is a guy who has barely any dynasty value at all, and what little value he does have is quickly falling. If you want to get anything for him, now's the time to move him. Otherwise, you're basically stuck holding him until he retires.
Only one: he's not worth DeSean Jackson.Flacco's got a bright future, but there are so many good young dynasty QBs in the league right now that his upside is limited. Clearly Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Schaub, Ryan, and Roethlisberger are better QBs to own right now without even getting into the gray area. That makes Flacco's upside the #9 dynasty QB... and I wouldn't trade a top 20 dynasty WR for a borderline top 10 dynasty QB.It's actually something of a golden age for dynasty QBs, to be quite honest. When someone could potentially rank Jay Freaking Cutler outside of his top 10 without really raising any eyebrows, you know that the league is positively filthy with quality young signal callers.
SSOG
Moderator
I'm not that high on Kevin Smith. He just screams "filler" to me. He's a good enough RB to take on a huge workload and get some production out of it, but I don't think he's a special enough talent to hold off all comers for years to come.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Good points. I agree with everything you said. But do you worry at all about Jackson's small frame? Does his small size make him an injury risk and therefore likely to miss more time with injury? I may pass on Flacco and make a bid for Henne - who's available as a free agent.
FUBAR
Footballguy
That's a fair point, I just don't know that Rice will be a top RB for years to come either. In some ways, Smith reminds me of a better Rudi Johnson. Worse team but better talent. I don't see the Lions replacing him for at least 3 years and I tend to not look too far past that.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
The 10 weeks comment is on Rotoworld ... and also the Dallas Morning News.I'm not saying Choice is a better running back than Barber. I'm saying that when choice plays, he produces just as well as (or possibly even better) than Barber would produce if healthy. Check that string of performances against the top defenses in the NFL last December. I do firmly believe that it puts a dent in a RBs value when his backup can produce just as well as he can (Joseph Addai / Kenton Keith comes to mind). Marion Barber simply isn't as integral to the Cowboys offense now as he was two years ago.
SSOG
Moderator
Not really. NFL players come in all shapes and sizes. There are a bunch of talented NFL WRs who are 5'10" and 180 lbs (Santana Moss, Eddie Royal, Santonio Holmes, etc). Granted, Jackson is 2 inches taller and the same weight, which means he's definitely smaller than those guys, but not by a ton.
I think the biggest con for Kevin Smith is that the Lions are an absolute mess. They can't open rushing lanes, they get behind early and abandon the run, etc.I think the biggest pro for Kevin Smith is that the Lions are an absolute mess. A team that bad has much more pressing issues than replacing an average player.Kind of a catch-22, if you will.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No offense intended, FUBAR.
SSOG
Moderator
By the way, given the unending injury woes of Felix and Marion, Tashard's nickname needs to be "Healthy Choice". We have to make this happen.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Sure, that makes sense. I've read that the biggest knock on Jackson is he sometimes cannot get off the jam at the line of scrimmage.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
IIRC, when Choice was playing last year coincided with the cowboys' collapse late in the season. Not saying he's responsible, but again this year--barber is hampered, Choice is putting up just as good stats, but suddenly (well not that suddenly, but problems that could be blamed on poor coaching or Romo being a choke artist seem to have extended to the rest of the team) the cowboys are playing like crap. Choice puts up the same numbers, and it's a small sample size, but Choice putting up the same stats has not translated to the team's continued success. I dunno if he's worse in pass protection (likely as barber is all-league in pass pro for an RB) or what the deal is, but I'd have to think they're looking at that when they decide if barber is replaceable or not.EDIT: full disclosure: I am a barber owner and don't have choice or f. jones in any leagues. am i wrong here?
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
[snark]I didn't realize dynasty leagues were scheduled to dismantle in 10 weeks.[/snark]. I don't see a RB at the cliff, like I do with BJacobs. MBIII looked downright dominant against the NYG in wk 2, and it's not like he blew out a knee.
Tau837
Footballguy
Saying the Lions abandon the run implies an impact to Smith's opportunity.But the Lions are #10 in the NFL in rushing attempts right now, despite (a) having played a tough run schedule (@NO, MIN, WAS, CHI, @PIT) and (b) being 1-4 and having spent plenty of time trailing big (their season point differential is -59 points in 5 games).SSOG said:
Smith has 94 carries and 19 receptions in 5 games, despite missing most of the second half in the Washington game due to injury. Accounting for his missed time, that's roughly 25 touches per game. He may have negatives, but opportunity is definitely not one of them.
Banger
Footballguy
I'm trying to buy him as we speak....offering Bowe and L. Washington. Probably not enough to get it done but worth a shot.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
So if your RB1 or RB2 was going to lose his burst for 10 weeks while his two talented backups handled more of the workload, that wouldn't bother you?thriftyrocker said:
I don't see a RB at the cliff. I see a RB with a physical style continuing to get banged up while his backup outplays him.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yes. It's nonsensical to believe that Choice, torching the absolute best run defenses in the league late last season, had a deleterious effect on the team's chances of winning. That team was falling apart at the seams with the soap opera in the locker room: T.O., Romo-Witten, Romo-Jessica, Tank Johnson acting like an idiot, Jason Garrett, soft Wade Phillips, etc.EthnicFury said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Coughlin still seems to be in Jacob's corner which is a good thing and at the very least you know that you're getting a goal-line back in a better than average offense - so there's no need to think Jacobs will become obsolete any time soon.However, if you've watched Giant games, Ahmad Bradshaw is clearly the better overall back this season. I've actually thought this since his rookie season (but Couglin who likely knows a lot more about football than me seemed to disagree). Bradshaw is a lot more explosive and runs with plenty of power in his "small" package.The possibility certainly exists that Bradshaw starts getting more and more carries at Jacob's expense, considering he has 20 more yards rushing on 42 less carries.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I agree. I've never been huge on the guy because he doesn't catch passes and appears a bit injury-prone, but there's way too much over-reaction going on.
