Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

If Moreno's so elite, then why's he getting outperformed by Correll Buckhalter? I always think one of the best measures of an RB is how his teammates perform in the same situation. I think Moreno is better than Buckhalter, but the fact that we even have to have this conversation is pretty damning, imo.

Because Buckhalter was being used much differently than Moreno. Buck has been getting all of the outside carries, pitches, and passing-game work where he has more space to operate. Moreno has been getting all of the between-the-tackles carries and very few touches in the open field.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Ray Rice is a Top 5 [at worst] PPR dynasty back. Would not sell.Talent. Situation. Great O-line. What more do you want?

Ray Rice is a monster.

 

[EBF]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

LT? No way. In his prime he had long speed and quickness that Moreno can only dream of. He's probably the best back of the last decade. I don't think Moreno is near that level. He doesn't have that kind of freakish athleticism. I'll stand by my Lynch/T. Jones comparisons. Both are solid backs who don't make enough big plays to be elite. That's exactly how I see Moreno. We have a tendency to become infatuated with the next big thing, but Jones and Lynch were top 15 draft picks in their own right. They're starting caliber backs at the NFL level. If that's how Moreno ends up then I think his owners will be pretty pleased.

 

[EthnicFury]

Ray Rice is a Top 5 [at worst] PPR dynasty back. Would not sell.Talent. Situation. Great O-line. What more do you want?

Ray Rice is a monster.

traded him for stewart awhile back and felt like I was getting a steal. Now I'm not so sure. He looked like a beast today (although he didn't have to do much on his second TD)

 

[EthnicFury]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

LT? No way. In his prime he had long speed and quickness that Moreno can only dream of. He's probably the best back of the last decade. I don't think Moreno is near that level. I'll stand by my Lynch/T. Jones comparisons. Both are solid backs who don't make enough big plays to be elite. That's exactly how I see Moreno. We have a tendency to become infatuated with the next big thing, but Jones and Lynch were top 15 draft picks in their own right. They're starting caliber backs at the NFL level. If that's how Moreno ends up then I think his owners will be pretty pleased.

Additionally, LT was a physical freak. I remember an article awhile back where his coaches were describing how he could cut off his inside foot without having to plant his outside foot. They saw him shake a couple guys that way and tried to teach their other RBs to do it, and the other RBs just fell down.

 

[EBF]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

LT? No way. In his prime he had long speed and quickness that Moreno can only dream of. He's probably the best back of the last decade. I don't think Moreno is near that level. I'll stand by my Lynch/T. Jones comparisons. Both are solid backs who don't make enough big plays to be elite. That's exactly how I see Moreno. We have a tendency to become infatuated with the next big thing, but Jones and Lynch were top 15 draft picks in their own right. They're starting caliber backs at the NFL level. If that's how Moreno ends up then I think his owners will be pretty pleased.

Additionally, LT was a physical freak. I remember an article awhile back where his coaches were describing how he could cut off his inside foot without having to plant his outside foot. They saw him shake a couple guys that way and tried to teach their other RBs to do it, and the other RBs just fell down.

Yea, there are some silly clips of his younger days on YouTube. If you could build the perfect RB from scratch it would look much like the 2002-2004 version of LT. He's one of the best to ever play the position.

 

[EthnicFury]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

LT? No way. In his prime he had long speed and quickness that Moreno can only dream of. He's probably the best back of the last decade. I don't think Moreno is near that level. I'll stand by my Lynch/T. Jones comparisons. Both are solid backs who don't make enough big plays to be elite. That's exactly how I see Moreno. We have a tendency to become infatuated with the next big thing, but Jones and Lynch were top 15 draft picks in their own right. They're starting caliber backs at the NFL level. If that's how Moreno ends up then I think his owners will be pretty pleased.

Additionally, LT was a physical freak. I remember an article awhile back where his coaches were describing how he could cut off his inside foot without having to plant his outside foot. They saw him shake a couple guys that way and tried to teach their other RBs to do it, and the other RBs just fell down.

Yea, there are some silly clips of his younger days on YouTube. If you could build the perfect RB from scratch it would look much like the 2002-2004 version of LT. He's one of the best to ever play the position.

here's the linkhttp://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=jc-t...o&type=lgns

 

[thatguy]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

LT? No way. In his prime he had long speed and quickness that Moreno can only dream of. He's probably the best back of the last decade. I don't think Moreno is near that level. He doesn't have that kind of freakish athleticism. I'll stand by my Lynch/T. Jones comparisons. Both are solid backs who don't make enough big plays to be elite. That's exactly how I see Moreno. We have a tendency to become infatuated with the next big thing, but Jones and Lynch were top 15 draft picks in their own right. They're starting caliber backs at the NFL level. If that's how Moreno ends up then I think his owners will be pretty pleased.

I used LT as a type comparison. I'm not suggesting he's on LT's level.But I do believe he will be much more successful, and is simply a better talent than either Jones or Lynch. Time will tell.

 

[az_prof]

Ray Rice is a Top 5 [at worst] PPR dynasty back. Would not sell.Talent. Situation. Great O-line. What more do you want?

Ray Rice is a monster.

He is. He does everything well. He reminds me a bit of a slightly smaller version of Emmit Smith.

 

[thatguy]

Ray Rice is a Top 5 [at worst] PPR dynasty back. Would not sell.Talent. Situation. Great O-line. What more do you want?

Ray Rice is a monster.

He is. He does everything well. He reminds me a bit of a slightly smaller version of Emmit Smith.

I love watching him play. He's very quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He's so fundamentally sound in every aspect of the game. Case in point, in each of the last two weeks he has put his hand down on the ground to keep his balance and used it almost as a pivot to change direction. I remember doing drills in high school where we would have to run and keep putting our hand down to keep our balance, but then we get into games, and you never see anyone do it. It's little things like this that make good players great.

 

[SSOG]

Buck has the higher average, but he netted most of his yardage against Oakland and Cleveland. The past 2 weeks, Moreno has played well. There is no doubt that Moreno gets the bigger load moving forward and Buck isn't close.I don't think Moreno is an all-world talent, but I agree with F&L, he's a complete back.

So? I'm comparing Buckhalter vs. Oak/Cle to Moreno vs. Oak/Cle. Moreno's looked good in the last two weeks, but he hasn't looked great or anything. Buck has produced better across the board so far this year. Not saying that Buck's a better talent, but you have to be wary of an RB who struggles to outperform his backups. Buckhalter is a legit NFL talent, but if Moreno was really so elite, this wouldn't even be a discussion right now.

Because Buckhalter was being used much differently than Moreno. Buck has been getting all of the outside carries, pitches, and passing-game work where he has more space to operate. Moreno has been getting all of the between-the-tackles carries and very few touches in the open field.

That's more a condemnation of Moreno's skillset than anything. Besides, CBuck has been getting plenty of trash in traffic. In fact, most of his big runs have been between the tackles plays.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Buck has the higher average, but he netted most of his yardage against Oakland and Cleveland. The past 2 weeks, Moreno has played well. There is no doubt that Moreno gets the bigger load moving forward and Buck isn't close.I don't think Moreno is an all-world talent, but I agree with F&L, he's a complete back.

So? I'm comparing Buckhalter vs. Oak/Cle to Moreno vs. Oak/Cle. Moreno's looked good in the last two weeks, but he hasn't looked great or anything. Buck has produced better across the board so far this year. Not saying that Buck's a better talent, but you have to be wary of an RB who struggles to outperform his backups. Buckhalter is a legit NFL talent, but if Moreno was really so elite, this wouldn't even be a discussion right now.

Because Buckhalter was being used much differently than Moreno. Buck has been getting all of the outside carries, pitches, and passing-game work where he has more space to operate. Moreno has been getting all of the between-the-tackles carries and very few touches in the open field.

That's more a condemnation of Moreno's skillset than anything. Besides, CBuck has been getting plenty of trash in traffic. In fact, most of his big runs have been between the tackles plays.

I've covered the Broncos three times this year, and most of Buckhalter's big plays have come on outside runs in space. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Moreno's skillset. The Broncos know that Buck won't hold up to steady carries inside.

 

[Chumpson]

Are there any rankings on this site for Dynasty that change throughout the season? I know they have their off-season rankings for dynasty, but haven't seen any that have adjusted after actually seeing the games this year. Like the Top-250 or something?

 

[SSOG]

Are there any rankings on this site for Dynasty that change throughout the season? I know they have their off-season rankings for dynasty, but haven't seen any that have adjusted after actually seeing the games this year. Like the Top-250 or something?

Pasquino, Tefertiller, and Bloom all update their rankings during the season. The latest aggregate rankings are available here, but those are rarely as up to date as the positional rankings (click the drop-down box and select a position to view them).

 

[SSOG]

It has nothing whatsoever to do with Moreno's skillset. The Broncos know that Buck won't hold up to steady carries inside.

The second part is definitely true, but the first part isn't. Moreno doesn't have the speed to consistently hit the corner at the NFL. The Broncos could get him a lot more involved in the passing game to get him the ball in space, but in terms of running he's really best suited to staying between the tackles.

 

[MountainMan0726]

Can I get some collected thoughts on Josh Freeman in a Dynasty League? Long term view only, not for this season. My current number 3 Dynasty QB is Trent Edwards, and I've seen about enough. I figure I might as well add Freeman and hold.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

It has nothing whatsoever to do with Moreno's skillset. The Broncos know that Buck won't hold up to steady carries inside.

The second part is definitely true, but the first part isn't. Moreno doesn't have the speed to consistently hit the corner at the NFL. The Broncos could get him a lot more involved in the passing game to get him the ball in space, but in terms of running he's really best suited to staying between the tackles.

OK, we'll just agree to disagree.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Would Ryan Fitzpatrick actually be good news for Lee Evans?

 

[SSOG]

Can I get some collected thoughts on Josh Freeman in a Dynasty League? Long term view only, not for this season. My current number 3 Dynasty QB is Trent Edwards, and I've seen about enough. I figure I might as well add Freeman and hold.

He went undrafted in my dynasty league (10 teams, 3 rounds), so I added him after the draft. Not because I liked Freeman, but because any QB picked in the first round has to be rostered. Just has to be. I also took the opportunity to trade him the first chance I could get (Schaub/Freeman/Garcon for Hasselbeck/Seneca/VJax), because I just don't believe in him *OR* in the Bucs. I really only added him in the first place because I've been wrong before, and he was drafted in the first round, after all. There are few young players in the league I'm less excited about, to be honest.

 

[SSOG]

It has nothing whatsoever to do with Moreno's skillset. The Broncos know that Buck won't hold up to steady carries inside.

The second part is definitely true, but the first part isn't. Moreno doesn't have the speed to consistently hit the corner at the NFL. The Broncos could get him a lot more involved in the passing game to get him the ball in space, but in terms of running he's really best suited to staying between the tackles.

OK, we'll just agree to disagree.

We agreed on that a long time ago. Now we're agreeing to continue disagreeing. Like I said the last time we discussed Moreno... here's to hoping I'm an idiot.

Would Ryan Fitzpatrick actually be good news for Lee Evans?

I'm convinced that it's not a case of certain quarterbacks being good for Evans, it's just a case of Edwards being bad for Evans. So, insofar as Fitzpatrick is not Trent Edwards, then Fitzpatrick is good for Evans.I already posted in the game thread, but I'm betting Ryan Fitzpatrick wears Lee Evans pajamas to bed. Which really just goes to show that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very smart guy (he did graduate from Harvard, after all); Lee Evans is the best offensive player on the team, so doing what it takes to put the ball in his hands is a winning strategy.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Would Ryan Fitzpatrick actually be good news for Lee Evans?

I'm convinced that it's not a case of certain quarterbacks being good for Evans, it's just a case of Edwards being bad for Evans. So, insofar as Fitzpatrick is not Trent Edwards, then Fitzpatrick is good for Evans.I already posted in the game thread, but I'm betting Ryan Fitzpatrick wears Lee Evans pajamas to bed. Which really just goes to show that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very smart guy (he did graduate from Harvard, after all); Lee Evans is the best offensive player on the team, so doing what it takes to put the ball in his hands is a winning strategy.

Yeah, Fitz has a noodle-arm, but at least he doesn't ignore Evans. I tend to agree. Unfortunately, Edwards will probably miss only one game -- if any.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Let's all say it together: Ben Roethlisberger = fantasy football stud.

 

[SSOG]

Let's all say it together: Ben Roethlisberger = fantasy football stud.

Alright, I have to admit it... I benched Roofles this week. Classic overthinking. I figured he'd be a victim of his own success, and that Pittsburgh would be so far up on Cleveland that he'd only attempt a handful of passes after halftime (especially given how terrible Cleveland's run defense has looked to date). I was thinking more along the lines of 280 yards and 1.5 scores.

 

[SSOG]

I was doing a little "light reading" (looking back 2 years and seeing what the discussions in this thread looked like), and I noticed two main things.

#1- It's really depressing just how futile all of this time and effort we spend really is. I mean, we talked about Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson and Ben Roethlisberger, but do you know who we spent most of our time talking about two years ago? Reggie Williams. Reggie Bush. Reggie Brown. Jason Campbell. Marcades Lewis. Chris Perry. Joseph Addai. It gives a healthy dose of perspective when you realize that 90% of the guys we're discussing so passionately today are going to be completely irrelevant two years from now.

#2- I found a great post by F&L that needs to see the light of day again. I'm quoting it in its entirety:

Please forgive this aside because it's certainly not meant to be a venomous screed against anybody in particular.

Has anybody else noticed that nothing emboldens an owner quite like a hot streak by one of "his guys"? SSOG can speak to this statement better than I can because he's more conversant with metrics, but there's a reason why analysts don't take a player's evaluation seriously when he's coming off his best game of the season. The player is not going to stay at that superlative level every week, so the stats are skewed after an unusually big game. Without trying to single out any specific posters, let's just take a sampling of some recent debates:

I had Jason Campbell as low as 7 value points -- down with Chad Pennington and J.P. Losman -- a few weeks ago while he wasn't looking so hot. Did we hear from anybody who had faith in him at the time? Nope. Was anybody so sold on Campbell's ability that they were willing to stick up for him while he was on a cold streak? Did anybody show anticipation and challenge the ranking before he reeled off a few good games?

Greg Jennings is 20 catches and 200 yards behind Donald Driver, but he has a huge edge in TDs at this stage of the season. I don't remember too many guys pimping him two months ago when he was coming off an injury and about 40 points lower in the rankings -- down in Ronald Curry territory. Where were the Jennings believers when he was injury-prone and struggling to get his job back from James Jones?

Where was the Westbrook over Tomlinson love back when Westbrook was watching from sidelines for the Eagles' Week Four game? Where was the Marques Colston stud talk when the Saints started the season at the bottom of the league in scoring?

The lowest I've ranked Joseph Addai was the week he shared carries with Kenton Keith. I lowered him to 75 points and dropped him to ~10th amongst RBs that week, and I didn't hear a peep from the Addai camp until reeled off a couple good games thereafter.

Where are the "Eli is a Top 10 Franchise QB" backers this week? Where was the love for Philip Rivers a couple of weeks ago? Why did nobody scold me for dropping Frank Gore a couple of weeks ago? Ditto on Larry Fitzgerald when I dropped him for a week or two coming off a disappointing start. Where were the Ronnie Brown faithful back in Week 2? Why won't anybody volunteer that Vince Young is too low right now? Laurence Maroney? Lee Evans? Stick to your guns. Have faith in your evaluations.

I realize, in a way, it's only human nature. We wonder who is going to take us seriously if we argue that a guy in the crapper is worth more than a guy playing over his ahead. You're running the risk of putting yourself out there to be mocked by the rest of the board. I understand that. And yet -- this may seem counterintuitive -- I have a lot more respect for someone who anticipates a return to full value while "his guys" are slumping. Better yet, it's the one anticipating a player jumping to the next level in-season who is showing off some real fantasy football enlightenment. I appreciate a guy like EBF for throwing in a Mark Clayton or Reggie Williams while they're down. Is he going to be right most of the time? Maybe, maybe not. But he's better than most at evaluating fantasy football talent, and he's at least trying to stay ahead of the curve rather than chasing points. That's where the real acumen lies.

/offsoapbox

I'm as guilty of it as anyone. I'm sure F&L will say exactly the same thing. It's human nature. We'll post noncommittal endorsements of "our guys" that run ever so slightly against conventional thought, and then when our guy gets hot we'll remind everyone how we totally knew it was coming. Case in point... if you blinked this offseason, you might have missed it when I called Ronnie Brown a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner... but there's no way you could have missed my relentless reminders of it once Brown started partying like it was 2007. What can I say- I'm a fantasy owner, and I think a huge requirement for that has to be a fear of looking silly and a conviction that you're the greatest thing since bread (sliced or otherwise).So, with those two points in mind, here is my attempt to make some statements that will be bold, against the grain, unsupported by recent performance, and (if I'm lucky) still relevant two years from now. I'll focus on RBs in this post, and maybe in the next few days I'll throw up some posts about WRs and QBs.

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

#2- Trade for Darren McFadden. Now. Yes, the Raiders are a mess, and he's been a huge disappointment so far this year. I don't care. McFadden was solid running the ball as a rookie, he was the #4 overall draft pick, and he's 22 years old. Not to pick on F&L, but he's got McFadden ranked behind Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall, and Pierre Thomas- two guys who can't outperform their own backups, a guy who was considered a colossal bust just 3 weeks ago (but who reminded us how important pedigree is, and whose pedigree is far worse than McFadden's), and a guy whose own owners freely admit is not a special talent. McFadden's looked bad so far this year, but every single Oakland Raider RB has looked significantly worse this year than they did last year (Bush's ypc dropped by .7, and Fargas's dropped by 1.7). His value is unnaturally repressed by the sheer monument to suck that is the 2009 Oakland Raiders (as well as his current injury), and he will likely never be this cheap again.

#3- When can we finally call Felix Jones a CoP back? His talent is undeniable, but all that means is that he's going to be the most talented role player in the NFL. Would I really take Felix Jones over, say, a Shonn Greene? Right now, I'm leaning towards "no", and it's not because I think Felix will be dinged for his entire NFL career (although that's a distinct possibility at this point). It's because I seriously can't ever see Felix averaging more than 10 carries a game. And I definitely can't see him averaging 10 yards per carry, either. People say that if Dallas really believed Barber was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 1st rounder on Felix. I agree to some extent, but at the same time... if Dallas really believed Felix was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 4th rounder on Tashard Choice in the same draft.

#4- Fun game. Everyone, guess how old Laurence Maroney is. Now raise your hand if you guessed higher than 24 and a half. I expect there are a lot of hands in the air right now (or, at least, there would be if you all didn't feel so silly about browsing a message board with your hand in the air ). Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones... we've had a lot of reminders recently about the importance of pedigree, but we haven't seemed to take them to heart in Maroney's case. I'm not saying that he's going to someday be good just because he has great pedigree... but I do think he deserves a lot more of the benefit of the doubt than he gets.

#5- Dear Leon Washington and Darren Sproles owners: make friends with the Jerious Norwood and Mewelde Moore owners, because they're going to be the only sympathetic ears in your fantasy leagues when you start whining about how your team refuses to utilize such a clear talent.

#6- Should we perhaps be questioning this repeated assertion that we all sort of accept as fact that Jonathan Stewart is secretly one of the five most talented RBs in the entire NFL?

... nah.

 

[editor47]

Curious if Matt Schaub moves up into Tier 2 in the next rankings. Or is the overused 'injury prone' label going to prevent him from getting there?

 

[editor47]

I was doing a little "light reading" (looking back 2 years and seeing what the discussions in this thread looked like), and I noticed two main things.

#1- It's really depressing just how futile all of this time and effort we spend really is. I mean, we talked about Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson and Ben Roethlisberger, but do you know who we spent most of our time talking about two years ago? Reggie Williams. Reggie Bush. Reggie Brown. Jason Campbell. Marcades Lewis. Chris Perry. Joseph Addai. It gives a healthy dose of perspective when you realize that 90% of the guys we're discussing so passionately today are going to be completely irrelevant two years from now.

#2- I found a great post by F&L that needs to see the light of day again. I'm quoting it in its entirety:

Please forgive this aside because it's certainly not meant to be a venomous screed against anybody in particular.

Has anybody else noticed that nothing emboldens an owner quite like a hot streak by one of "his guys"? SSOG can speak to this statement better than I can because he's more conversant with metrics, but there's a reason why analysts don't take a player's evaluation seriously when he's coming off his best game of the season. The player is not going to stay at that superlative level every week, so the stats are skewed after an unusually big game. Without trying to single out any specific posters, let's just take a sampling of some recent debates:

I had Jason Campbell as low as 7 value points -- down with Chad Pennington and J.P. Losman -- a few weeks ago while he wasn't looking so hot. Did we hear from anybody who had faith in him at the time? Nope. Was anybody so sold on Campbell's ability that they were willing to stick up for him while he was on a cold streak? Did anybody show anticipation and challenge the ranking before he reeled off a few good games?

Greg Jennings is 20 catches and 200 yards behind Donald Driver, but he has a huge edge in TDs at this stage of the season. I don't remember too many guys pimping him two months ago when he was coming off an injury and about 40 points lower in the rankings -- down in Ronald Curry territory. Where were the Jennings believers when he was injury-prone and struggling to get his job back from James Jones?

Where was the Westbrook over Tomlinson love back when Westbrook was watching from sidelines for the Eagles' Week Four game? Where was the Marques Colston stud talk when the Saints started the season at the bottom of the league in scoring?

The lowest I've ranked Joseph Addai was the week he shared carries with Kenton Keith. I lowered him to 75 points and dropped him to ~10th amongst RBs that week, and I didn't hear a peep from the Addai camp until reeled off a couple good games thereafter.

Where are the "Eli is a Top 10 Franchise QB" backers this week? Where was the love for Philip Rivers a couple of weeks ago? Why did nobody scold me for dropping Frank Gore a couple of weeks ago? Ditto on Larry Fitzgerald when I dropped him for a week or two coming off a disappointing start. Where were the Ronnie Brown faithful back in Week 2? Why won't anybody volunteer that Vince Young is too low right now? Laurence Maroney? Lee Evans? Stick to your guns. Have faith in your evaluations.

I realize, in a way, it's only human nature. We wonder who is going to take us seriously if we argue that a guy in the crapper is worth more than a guy playing over his ahead. You're running the risk of putting yourself out there to be mocked by the rest of the board. I understand that. And yet -- this may seem counterintuitive -- I have a lot more respect for someone who anticipates a return to full value while "his guys" are slumping. Better yet, it's the one anticipating a player jumping to the next level in-season who is showing off some real fantasy football enlightenment. I appreciate a guy like EBF for throwing in a Mark Clayton or Reggie Williams while they're down. Is he going to be right most of the time? Maybe, maybe not. But he's better than most at evaluating fantasy football talent, and he's at least trying to stay ahead of the curve rather than chasing points. That's where the real acumen lies.

/offsoapbox

I'm as guilty of it as anyone. I'm sure F&L will say exactly the same thing. It's human nature. We'll post noncommittal endorsements of "our guys" that run ever so slightly against conventional thought, and then when our guy gets hot we'll remind everyone how we totally knew it was coming. Case in point... if you blinked this offseason, you might have missed it when I called Ronnie Brown a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner... but there's no way you could have missed my relentless reminders of it once Brown started partying like it was 2007. What can I say- I'm a fantasy owner, and I think a huge requirement for that has to be a fear of looking silly and a conviction that you're the greatest thing since bread (sliced or otherwise).So, with those two points in mind, here is my attempt to make some statements that will be bold, against the grain, unsupported by recent performance, and (if I'm lucky) still relevant two years from now. I'll focus on RBs in this post, and maybe in the next few days I'll throw up some posts about WRs and QBs.

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

#2- Trade for Darren McFadden. Now. Yes, the Raiders are a mess, and he's been a huge disappointment so far this year. I don't care. McFadden was solid running the ball as a rookie, he was the #4 overall draft pick, and he's 22 years old. Not to pick on F&L, but he's got McFadden ranked behind Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall, and Pierre Thomas- two guys who can't outperform their own backups, a guy who was considered a colossal bust just 3 weeks ago (but who reminded us how important pedigree is, and whose pedigree is far worse than McFadden's), and a guy whose own owners freely admit is not a special talent. McFadden's looked bad so far this year, but every single Oakland Raider RB has looked significantly worse this year than they did last year (Bush's ypc dropped by .7, and Fargas's dropped by 1.7). His value is unnaturally repressed by the sheer monument to suck that is the 2009 Oakland Raiders (as well as his current injury), and he will likely never be this cheap again.

#3- When can we finally call Felix Jones a CoP back? His talent is undeniable, but all that means is that he's going to be the most talented role player in the NFL. Would I really take Felix Jones over, say, a Shonn Greene? Right now, I'm leaning towards "no", and it's not because I think Felix will be dinged for his entire NFL career (although that's a distinct possibility at this point). It's because I seriously can't ever see Felix averaging more than 10 carries a game. And I definitely can't see him averaging 10 yards per carry, either. People say that if Dallas really believed Barber was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 1st rounder on Felix. I agree to some extent, but at the same time... if Dallas really believed Felix was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 4th rounder on Tashard Choice in the same draft.

#4- Fun game. Everyone, guess how old Laurence Maroney is. Now raise your hand if you guessed higher than 24 and a half. I expect there are a lot of hands in the air right now (or, at least, there would be if you all didn't feel so silly about browsing a message board with your hand in the air ). Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones... we've had a lot of reminders recently about the importance of pedigree, but we haven't seemed to take them to heart in Maroney's case. I'm not saying that he's going to someday be good just because he has great pedigree... but I do think he deserves a lot more of the benefit of the doubt than he gets.

#5- Dear Leon Washington and Darren Sproles owners: make friends with the Jerious Norwood and Mewelde Moore owners, because they're going to be the only sympathetic ears in your fantasy leagues when you start whining about how your team refuses to utilize such a clear talent.

#6- Should we perhaps be questioning this repeated assertion that we all sort of accept as fact that Jonathan Stewart is secretly one of the five most talented RBs in the entire NFL?

... nah.

thanks to this post, i now feel like i should trade michael turner. so i looked at the rankings, then i looked at rosters in my league. i decided i would offer turner and boldin for ray rice. and then i realized it would get shot down faster than i could type it. so i probably won't offer it.

 

[SSOG]

thanks to this post, i now feel like i should trade michael turner. so i looked at the rankings, then i looked at rosters in my league. i decided i would offer turner and boldin for ray rice. and then i realized it would get shot down faster than i could type it. so i probably won't offer it.

I wouldn't shoot that down; on the contrary, I'd be all over that in a heartbeat. I don't think Michael Turner is a top 10 RB, but I think Ray Rice's grip on his top 10 position is rather tenuous. I'd take that trade without hesitation, and you know I'm down on Turner. In a non-PPR league, that's essentially ~RB12 + ~WR12 in exchange for ~RB10. Yes please. In a PPR league, Rice's value goes up and Turner's goes down... but Boldin's value goes up, too, since he's a PPR monster (he averages 6.25 catches a game for his career, which means an AVERAGE season for Boldin is 100 grabs). There you're talking about something like RB14 + WR10 for RB8 (note: these are just off-the-cuff approximations and not necessarily exactly how I'd rank the players in question). Anquan Boldin is far too high a price to pay for a slight upgrade at RB.

 

[editor47]

thanks to this post, i now feel like i should trade michael turner. so i looked at the rankings, then i looked at rosters in my league. i decided i would offer turner and boldin for ray rice. and then i realized it would get shot down faster than i could type it. so i probably won't offer it.

I wouldn't shoot that down; on the contrary, I'd be all over that in a heartbeat. I don't think Michael Turner is a top 10 RB, but I think Ray Rice's grip on his top 10 position is rather tenuous. I'd take that trade without hesitation, and you know I'm down on Turner. In a non-PPR league, that's essentially ~RB12 + ~WR12 in exchange for ~RB10. Yes please. In a PPR league, Rice's value goes up and Turner's goes down... but Boldin's value goes up, too, since he's a PPR monster (he averages 6.25 catches a game for his career, which means an AVERAGE season for Boldin is 100 grabs). There you're talking about something like RB14 + WR10 for RB8 (note: these are just off-the-cuff approximations and not necessarily exactly how I'd rank the players in question). Anquan Boldin is far too high a price to pay for a slight upgrade at RB.

i am in a league with crazy people. i'm telling you: after sunday's game there's no way his owner makes that deal. our league is sort of PPR ... you have to get to 5 REC before you start getting points. you get 1 point for every REC starting at 5.

 

[munchkin]

thanks to this post, i now feel like i should trade michael turner. so i looked at the rankings, then i looked at rosters in my league.

i decided i would offer turner and boldin for ray rice. and then i realized it would get shot down faster than i could type it. so i probably won't offer it.

I wouldn't shoot that down; on the contrary, I'd be all over that in a heartbeat. I don't think Michael Turner is a top 10 RB, but I think Ray Rice's grip on his top 10 position is rather tenuous. I'd take that trade without hesitation, and you know I'm down on Turner. In a non-PPR league, that's essentially ~RB12 + ~WR12 in exchange for ~RB10. Yes please. In a PPR league, Rice's value goes up and Turner's goes down... but Boldin's value goes up, too, since he's a PPR monster (he averages 6.25 catches a game for his career, which means an AVERAGE season for Boldin is 100 grabs). There you're talking about something like RB14 + WR10 for RB8 (note: these are just off-the-cuff approximations and not necessarily exactly how I'd rank the players in question). Anquan Boldin is far too high a price to pay for a slight upgrade at RB.

i am in a league with crazy people. i'm telling you: after sunday's game there's no way his owner makes that deal. our league is sort of PPR ... you have to get to 5 REC before you start getting points. you get 1 point for every REC starting at 5.

When I read that first sentence I looked back to see if I recognized who you were. My League Mates often remind me of the cast from One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

 

[Horses Mouth]

I saw Flacco for the first time yesterday and thought he looked terrific. With Rice as a rec outlet and a firm pocket presence with excellent throwing, what are your thoughts about him moving forward. Does he continue to get bumped up in your rankings?

 

[BradtheAg]

Let's all say it together: Ben Roethlisberger = fantasy football stud.

amen. i traded for him 2 off-seasons ago because you were so high on him on sons of the tundra and he had an incredibly low "salary." i'm paying him $500 a year for 3 more years in a league where the cap is $75,000. feels like stealing at this point. thanks for seeing this one when most didn't.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I don't know what SSOG and EBF are seeing, but everything Moreno does leads to believe he IS a special talent. He's not a once in a decade talent ala Peterson, Faulk and Tomlinson, but he is a special player. F & L already mentioned his burst, but outside of that he has tremendous vision and patience (ala Edge in his prime), which are things you simply can't teach. He has a knack for finding a small crease and wiggling through it to get to the second level (ala Portis). He's deceptively powerful and very slippery. He has tremendous hands and route running ability as well. The only knock on him as F & L said is so-so straight line speed, but his quickness and burst more than make up for that. His football speed is actually very fast. I think he's far more talented than Thomas Jones, and also more talented than Lynch. He has great football smarts and elite instinct which I think puts him head and shoulders above those guys. I do think Stewart is more talented, but agree with F & L that few RB's in football have that kind talent. I think Tomlinson is a good comp. Moreno is not quite as shifty and not as fast in the open field, but the rest of his skillset is very comparable to LT. He has the burst and quickness and slipperiness to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings, and though not on Tomlinson's level, he is fairly elusive (few are as elusive or shifty as Tomlinson was in his prime).

LT? No way. In his prime he had long speed and quickness that Moreno can only dream of. He's probably the best back of the last decade. I don't think Moreno is near that level. I'll stand by my Lynch/T. Jones comparisons. Both are solid backs who don't make enough big plays to be elite. That's exactly how I see Moreno. We have a tendency to become infatuated with the next big thing, but Jones and Lynch were top 15 draft picks in their own right. They're starting caliber backs at the NFL level. If that's how Moreno ends up then I think his owners will be pretty pleased.

Additionally, LT was a physical freak. I remember an article awhile back where his coaches were describing how he could cut off his inside foot without having to plant his outside foot. They saw him shake a couple guys that way and tried to teach their other RBs to do it, and the other RBs just fell down.

The announcer for the Chargers was talking about LT last year. He said that what LT has accomplished behind what has been at times a really bad offensive line is nothing short of phenomenal.

 

[thatguy]

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.#3- When can we finally call Felix Jones a CoP back? His talent is undeniable, but all that means is that he's going to be the most talented role player in the NFL. Would I really take Felix Jones over, say, a Shonn Greene? Right now, I'm leaning towards "no", and it's not because I think Felix will be dinged for his entire NFL career (although that's a distinct possibility at this point). It's because I seriously can't ever see Felix averaging more than 10 carries a game. And I definitely can't see him averaging 10 yards per carry, either. People say that if Dallas really believed Barber was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 1st rounder on Felix. I agree to some extent, but at the same time... if Dallas really believed Felix was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 4th rounder on Tashard Choice in the same draft.

What makes you think Turner won't continue to get TD's in bunches going forward? He's been doing it for 21 games now, I see no reason that trend won't continue. Also, Turner looked every bit the part of a special player last season. Sure, he hasn't looked that great through five games this season, but his numbers are still solid and I'll trust what I saw last season rather than rush to a rash judgment based on a much smaller sample size this season. Yes, he's 27 years old, and yes his bruising style may lead to him breaking down sooner than other RB's, but he has had a very light workload to this point in his career, and Thomas Jones has shown the past few seasons that not all RB's are created equal with regards to when they hit the proverbial wall. Besides, the RB landscape changes so quickly, it's foolish to look beyond 3 years out when evaluating this position - it's far different than the WR and QB position.As for taking Green over Felix, aren't you the one always saying for dynasty purposes to always go with the most talented players, and that talent eventually wins out? Jones is an immensely talented RB. Green is a nice player but quite frankly he is not special in any way. I fully believe that Jones' talent will win out and he will prove to be far more valuable than Green over the course of their respective careers.

 

[EthnicFury]

#2- Trade for Darren McFadden. Now. Yes, the Raiders are a mess, and he's been a huge disappointment so far this year. I don't care. McFadden was solid running the ball as a rookie, he was the #4 overall draft pick, and he's 22 years old. Not to pick on F&L, but he's got McFadden ranked behind Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall, and Pierre Thomas- two guys who can't outperform their own backups, a guy who was considered a colossal bust just 3 weeks ago (but who reminded us how important pedigree is, and whose pedigree is far worse than McFadden's), and a guy whose own owners freely admit is not a special talent. McFadden's looked bad so far this year, but every single Oakland Raider RB has looked significantly worse this year than they did last year (Bush's ypc dropped by .7, and Fargas's dropped by 1.7). His value is unnaturally repressed by the sheer monument to suck that is the 2009 Oakland Raiders (as well as his current injury), and he will likely never be this cheap again.#3- When can we finally call Felix Jones a CoP back? His talent is undeniable, but all that means is that he's going to be the most talented role player in the NFL. Would I really take Felix Jones over, say, a Shonn Greene? Right now, I'm leaning towards "no", and it's not because I think Felix will be dinged for his entire NFL career (although that's a distinct possibility at this point). It's because I seriously can't ever see Felix averaging more than 10 carries a game. And I definitely can't see him averaging 10 yards per carry, either. People say that if Dallas really believed Barber was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 1st rounder on Felix. I agree to some extent, but at the same time... if Dallas really believed Felix was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 4th rounder on Tashard Choice in the same draft.#6- Should we perhaps be questioning this repeated assertion that we all sort of accept as fact that Jonathan Stewart is secretly one of the five most talented RBs in the entire NFL?... nah.

2-I think what Jamarcus and DHB are showing us (not to mention robert gallery) is that pedigree matters unless you're drafted by the raiders3-agree with you on this one. I really can't imagine him getting feature carries, or holding up under them if he does (and I've been on that train for awhile now. I read a lot of people in the offseason projecting him to get 200 touches because barber broke down with 250 touches, all the while discounting that he broke down with 30-40 touches).6-I really hope we've been right about him...i sold ray rice for him and am feeling like an idiot at the moment

 

[Knobs]

As for taking Green over Felix, aren't you the one always saying for dynasty purposes to always go with the most talented players, and that talent eventually wins out? Jones is an immensely talented RB. Green is a nice player but quite frankly he is not special in any way. I fully believe that Jones' talent will win out and he will prove to be far more valuable than Green over the course of their respective careers.

I'd much rather have Felix. I'm skeptical he'll become anything more than a Leon Washington but I do think his talent is so much more than what someone like Greene has to offer.

 

[EBF]

I've always thought McFadden was a massively overhyped bust and that's exactly what he has looked like thus far in the NFL. I don't pin the blame entirely on Oakland's poor supporting cast and management. Elite backs can put up decent stats on bad offenses. We saw Jamal Lewis and LaDainian Tomlinson do it early in their careers. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Chris Johnson have excelled on weak teams recently. Why can't McFadden do the same?

Because he's not very good. It's Occam's razor. McFadden is a niche player who was falsely touted as a franchise back. The Raiders made a typical bad pick by selecting him where they did. He may some day become a good change of pace back, but I disagree that anyone should rush out to buy low. He's probably never going to be a reliable starter in the NFL.

 

[Keeper I dont even know her]

Please forgive this aside because it's certainly not meant to be a venomous screed against anybody in particular.Has anybody else noticed that nothing emboldens an owner quite like a hot streak by one of "his guys"? SSOG can speak to this statement better than I can because he's more conversant with metrics, but there's a reason why analysts don't take a player's evaluation seriously when he's coming off his best game of the season. The player is not going to stay at that superlative level every week, so the stats are skewed after an unusually big game. Without trying to single out any specific posters, let's just take a sampling of some recent debates:...

to this point, what is Sidney Rice's dynasty value? is he the product of a couple of hot games of single coverage? Or a 22-year old about to break out? Would you trade him for a late 1st for example?

 

[SSOG]

I saw Flacco for the first time yesterday and thought he looked terrific. With Rice as a rec outlet and a firm pocket presence with excellent throwing, what are your thoughts about him moving forward. Does he continue to get bumped up in your rankings?

I think Flacco, through no fault of his own, will find it nearly impossible to move up the rankings. Seriously, who does he jump? Manning? Brady? Brees? Ryan? Rodgers? Roethlisberger? Rivers? Heck, he's going to have a hard enough time holding off guys like Cutler, Romo, and Schaub behind him.This really is a golden age of QBs for dynasty leagues. There are legitimately 11 guys in the league right now who I would be perfectly content to roll out as my QB1 in every game for the next 3 years. And even the guys who don't make that cut are still quality signal-callers- McNabb, Hasselbeck, Eli, Palmer, Warner, hell, even Kyle Orton won't get you killed on a weekly basis. And that's not even counting potential up-and-comers like Henne, Freeman, Leinart, Sanchez, or Stafford.

What makes you think Turner won't continue to get TD's in bunches going forward? He's been doing it for 21 games now, I see no reason that trend won't continue. Also, Turner looked every bit the part of a special player last season. Sure, he hasn't looked that great through five games this season, but his numbers are still solid and I'll trust what I saw last season rather than rush to a rash judgment based on a much smaller sample size this season. Yes, he's 27 years old, and yes his bruising style may lead to him breaking down sooner than other RB's, but he has had a very light workload to this point in his career, and Thomas Jones has shown the past few seasons that not all RB's are created equal with regards to when they hit the proverbial wall. Besides, the RB landscape changes so quickly, it's foolish to look beyond 3 years out when evaluating this position - it's far different than the WR and QB position.

First off, TDs follow yards, and yards follow talent, and I'm not that high on Turner's talent. You disagree, and you point out that he's been lighting things up recently. To that, I say "Good!". The whole point was to post an opinion I held that went against popular thought and which wasn't reactionary based on recent performances. It's not a "rash judgment based on a much smaller sample size this season"- as I said, I formed this opinion during last season, and I even posted it before this season kicked off.Also, while it's silly to project more than 3 years out, it is *NOT* impossible to account for value more than 3 years out. I base my rankings off of an "exit value" system. I try and predict what a player will score over some predetermined window... and I predict what he will be worth at the end of the window. I alter my window based on what kind of timetable I'm most interested in for that player. I don't think it's rocket surgery to suggest that Ray Rice will hold more value 3 years from now than Michael Turner. It's not like that's a very out on a limb projection. Even if Rice disappoints, the fact that he'll be 25 and Turner will be 30 means Rice will have more value. If I decide I want to trade these players after this year, Turner's value takes a bigger age related hit than Rice's. If I decide I want to trade them after next year, Turner's value takes a bigger hit, still. I'm not predicting that Turner will break down at 30, I'm predicting that he'll have no fantasy value at 30- and that's a pretty safe prediction based on the current values of guys like Tomlinson, Westbrook, Thomas Jones, and Ricky Williams, regardless of what happens between now and then.Combine the fact that I'm lukewarm towards his talent with the fact that he's the second oldest RB currently in F&L's top 28 and he's a no-brainer sell high for me. Like I said, that's not consensus thinking... and that's the point.

As for taking Green over Felix, aren't you the one always saying for dynasty purposes to always go with the most talented players, and that talent eventually wins out? Jones is an immensely talented RB. Green is a nice player but quite frankly he is not special in any way. I fully believe that Jones' talent will win out and he will prove to be far more valuable than Green over the course of their respective careers.

Mewelde Moore is the most talented RB in Pittsburgh. Leon Washington is the most talented back on the Jets. I think Jerious Norwood is arguably the most talented RB in Atlanta. Lots of people are convinced that Darren Sproles is the most talented back in San Diego. All four of those guys are great, great NFL talents... but nobody bats an eyelash at the fact that none of them ranks higher than 35th. Why? Because, at the end of the day, the ability to handle an NFL workload is ALSO a talent- perhaps the most important talent of all, despite the fact that no one ever discusses it as such. At what point do we begin questioning whether Felix Jones is just another Leon Washington- an incredibly, incredibly value complementary runner at the NFL level who is never going to get the workload to make him much of anything at the fantasy level?

2-I think what Jamarcus and DHB are showing us (not to mention robert gallery) is that pedigree matters unless you're drafted by the raiders3-agree with you on this one. I really can't imagine him getting feature carries, or holding up under them if he does (and I've been on that train for awhile now. I read a lot of people in the offseason projecting him to get 200 touches because barber broke down with 250 touches, all the while discounting that he broke down with 30-40 touches).6-I really hope we've been right about him...i sold ray rice for him and am feeling like an idiot at the moment

If the Raiders hadn't drafted McFadden at #4, some other team would have taken him in the top 10, or the top 16, and he'd still have quality pedigree without the Raiders stigma. That's way different from a guy like DHB (who probably wouldn't have even gone in the first round if not for the Raiders). And while it's true that JaMarcus was also universally hailed, I already said that pedigree doesn't really matter for WRs and QBs like it does for RBs, because so much more of their game is mental (whereas an RB with elite physical tools is always a threat to succeed).

I've always thought McFadden was a massively overhyped bust and that's exactly what he has looked like thus far in the NFL. I don't pin the blame entirely on Oakland's poor supporting cast and management. Elite backs can put up decent stats on bad offenses. We saw Jamal Lewis and LaDainian Tomlinson do it early in their careers. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Chris Johnson have excelled on weak teams recently. Why can't McFadden do the same? Because he's not very good. It's Occam's razor. McFadden is a niche player who was falsely touted as a franchise back. The Raiders made a typical bad pick by selecting him where they did. He may some day become a good change of pace back, but I disagree that anyone should rush out to buy low. He's probably never going to be a reliable starter in the NFL.

I thought he looked fine last year. I also never said he was a Tomlinson/SJax/Gore/CJ-level talent, either. I'm just saying that a lot of McFadden owners are giving up on him WAY too early. I understand that you were never high on him to begin with, so it's a lot more understandable for you to have given up on him already... but lots of people thought he was a seriously legit talent once upon a time, and people shouldn't change their mind about that based solely on 160 career carries for a terrible team, especially when the RB had such an amazing pedigree in the first place.

 

[Knobs]

I don't think much of McFadden, but I do believe his value is currently lower than it should be. No reason to not buy. I can't imagine Oakland will give up on him next year so worst case you can flip him after a big game or two.

 

[editor47]

As I thought SSOG, my offer of Turner and Boldin for R. Rice was rebuffed quickly.

 

[Steed]

#2- Trade for Darren McFadden. Now. Yes, the Raiders are a mess, and he's been a huge disappointment so far this year. I don't care. McFadden was solid running the ball as a rookie, he was the #4 overall draft pick, and he's 22 years old. Not to pick on F&L, but he's got McFadden ranked behind Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall, and Pierre Thomas- two guys who can't outperform their own backups, a guy who was considered a colossal bust just 3 weeks ago (but who reminded us how important pedigree is, and whose pedigree is far worse than McFadden's), and a guy whose own owners freely admit is not a special talent. McFadden's looked bad so far this year, but every single Oakland Raider RB has looked significantly worse this year than they did last year (Bush's ypc dropped by .7, and Fargas's dropped by 1.7). His value is unnaturally repressed by the sheer monument to suck that is the 2009 Oakland Raiders (as well as his current injury), and he will likely never be this cheap again.#3- When can we finally call Felix Jones a CoP back? His talent is undeniable, but all that means is that he's going to be the most talented role player in the NFL. Would I really take Felix Jones over, say, a Shonn Greene? Right now, I'm leaning towards "no", and it's not because I think Felix will be dinged for his entire NFL career (although that's a distinct possibility at this point). It's because I seriously can't ever see Felix averaging more than 10 carries a game. And I definitely can't see him averaging 10 yards per carry, either. People say that if Dallas really believed Barber was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 1st rounder on Felix. I agree to some extent, but at the same time... if Dallas really believed Felix was a featured back, they wouldn't have spent a 4th rounder on Tashard Choice in the same draft.

So buy DMC because he's a workhorse and sell Felix because he's a CoP back. You truly are going against the grain here. Is that what you are drinking? Pure grain?

 

[Knobs]

As I thought SSOG, my offer of Turner and Boldin for R. Rice was rebuffed quickly.

Wow, tough deal. I'd be tempted to take Boldin for Rice, nevermind Boldin AND Turner.

 

[SSOG]

So buy DMC because he's a workhorse and sell Felix because he's a CoP back. You truly are going against the grain here. Is that what you are drinking? Pure grain?

No, sir. White Russians.

 

[road warrior]

What to do with Anthony Gonzalez?

In my 1st year Dynasty league, I drafted (base on value) both Reggie Wayne and Gonzo. As everyone knows, Gonzo's been down since week 1 and expected to return within the next few weeks.

That said, I have another owner who's down on Boldin. He's also been after Eli Manning who's been on my bench all year since I have Brady. I'm feeling that for me to pull the trigger on this, I'd need a little extra. He has Jermichael Finley who's caught my eye.

Others I'd consider that he has are Justin Forsett, Jordy Nelson and Mike Wallace.

Or, am I completely insane and I should just keep him? Reggie Wayne is no spring chicken.

Thoughts?

 

[Knobs]

What to do with Anthony Gonzalez?In my 1st year Dynasty league, I drafted (base on value) both Reggie Wayne and Gonzo. As everyone knows, Gonzo's been down since week 1 and expected to return within the next few weeks.That said, I have another owner who's down on Boldin. He's also been after Eli Manning who's been on my bench all year since I have Brady. I'm feeling that for me to pull the trigger on this, I'd need a little extra. He has Jermichael Finley who's caught my eye.Others I'd consider that he has are Justin Forsett, Jordy Nelson and Mike Wallace.Or, am I completely insane and I should just keep him? Reggie Wayne is no spring chicken.Thoughts?

If you can move Eli and Gonzalez for Boldin I'm not sure why you're hesitating...I like Nelson the best.

 

[road warrior]

My thought is that he's been sniffing around Eli for a couple of weeks. And with Gonzo, getting any part of that Colts passing attack is worth having. And trust me, I love Boldin (high ankle sprain and all).

I'm just trying to maximize the trade from an anxious owner.

Thanks for the response tho. Maybe I'm being greedy.

 

[Casting Couch]

As for taking Green over Felix, aren't you the one always saying for dynasty purposes to always go with the most talented players, and that talent eventually wins out? Jones is an immensely talented RB. Green is a nice player but quite frankly he is not special in any way. I fully believe that Jones' talent will win out and he will prove to be far more valuable than Green over the course of their respective careers.

I'd much rather have Felix. I'm skeptical he'll become anything more than a Leon Washington but I do think his talent is so much more than what someone like Greene has to offer.

I'll also take Felix over Greene. But injuries are piling up with this guy,and Tashard Choice may be the heir apparent in Dallas. Choice is someone you want to own.The secret is starting to leak out on this guy.

 

[jdoggydogg]

As I thought SSOG, my offer of Turner and Boldin for R. Rice was rebuffed quickly.

Wow, tough deal. I'd be tempted to take Boldin for Rice, nevermind Boldin AND Turner.

Ray Rice is excellent, but I'd absolutely trade him for Turner and Boldin.

 

[EthnicFury]

2-I think what Jamarcus and DHB are showing us (not to mention robert gallery) is that pedigree matters unless you're drafted by the raiders3-agree with you on this one. I really can't imagine him getting feature carries, or holding up under them if he does (and I've been on that train for awhile now. I read a lot of people in the offseason projecting him to get 200 touches because barber broke down with 250 touches, all the while discounting that he broke down with 30-40 touches).6-I really hope we've been right about him...i sold ray rice for him and am feeling like an idiot at the moment

If the Raiders hadn't drafted McFadden at #4, some other team would have taken him in the top 10, or the top 16, and he'd still have quality pedigree without the Raiders stigma. That's way different from a guy like DHB (who probably wouldn't have even gone in the first round if not for the Raiders). And while it's true that JaMarcus was also universally hailed, I already said that pedigree doesn't really matter for WRs and QBs like it does for RBs, because so much more of their game is mental (whereas an RB with elite physical tools is always a threat to succeed).

Fair enough. I always thought he was overhyped, so maybe I'm a bit biased (thin legs in an RB scare me). I hear you on the difference between QBs and WRs, although that does leave gallery (and while I was never big on mcfadden or jamarcus, I thought Gallery was gonna be a BEAST...but my skill as an OL talent evaluator admittedly isn't on the level I am with WRs.)

 

[Cookiemonster]

As I thought SSOG, my offer of Turner and Boldin for R. Rice was rebuffed quickly.

Wow, tough deal. I'd be tempted to take Boldin for Rice, nevermind Boldin AND Turner.

Ray Rice is excellent, but I'd absolutely trade him for Turner and Boldin.

I've always thought Rice looked like Emmit on the field, and recently offered MJD and an early 2nd round rookie pick for Rice and Mendenhall and was shot down immediately.