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Player Spotlight: Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Larry Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Not a big fan of L.J. this year due to seeing him breakdown. I know you can't predict injuries but...well...I am.

252 carries 896 yards

4 td's

12 catches 48 yards.

I giving him the exact year Alexander had last year.

 
Blackjacks said:
Not a big fan of L.J. this year due to seeing him breakdown. I know you can't predict injuries but...well...I am.252 carries 896 yards4 td's12 catches 48 yards.I giving him the exact year Alexander had last year.
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I agree. I called the Alexander injury in advance last year and I think that LJ faces a similar situation this year. 425+ carries last year, I think he misses at least 4 games this year and is hobbled for 4+ more. LJ's situation mirrors SA's in another way that they are losing another staple of the O-Line in shields, like SEA lost Hutch. A guy just can't take 400+ carries a year like that with 8 in the box and lose o-line pieces without getting injured.
 
I'd like to say the large # of carries and OL losses are being overblown but they can't be ignored. Huge boom/bust pick right here.

 
I don't think the Oline is bad. And I don't predict injuries. LJ is a superstar.

350 carries

1500 yards

15 TDs

35 catches

310 yards

2 TDs

 
Kevin Ashcraft said:
David Yudkin said:
Kevin Ashcraft said:
305 carries1202 Yds11 TDs25 Rec260 yds1 TD
Click to expand...
This would make LJ barely Top 10 . . .
Click to expand...
I am sandbagging a little in that projection David, but I do not see LJ holding top 5 value this season. That does not mean I think KC will be horrible BTW....I see Smith and Bennett getting a combined 175 carries.
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I'm not saying your projection (or anyone elses) is right or wrong, only that yours in particular would be a 35% drop off from last year production wise.
 
I think he has another year or two of good production. Like him in redraft, but time to get rid of him in dynasty.

365 carries

1620 yards

14 td's

38 catches

304 yards

2 TD's

 
PahtyTom said:
I don't think the Oline is bad. And I don't predict injuries. LJ is a superstar.350 carries 1500 yards15 TDs35 catches310 yards2 TDs
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:shrug: So many people let their personal feelings for the guy's personality sway judgement. Barring an unforseen injury, which can not be predicted from a guy who has had limited injuries throughout his career, he will again be a monster for fantasy purposes as Herm Edwards will again run him to death. Except for last season, he has had limited carries his whole career. Low mileage and a coach who rides his horses equals another big season.
 
citydawg said:
Except for last season, he has had limited carries his whole career. Low mileage and a coach who rides his horses equals another big season.
Click to expand...
IIRC, LJ has averaged 30 touches a game since talking over for Holmes two years ago. I believe LT is next at around 25 touches a game in that time. I'm not sure Johnson can continue to get 20% more touches than any other back for very long without either a) seeing a workload reduction, b) running out of gas, or c) starting to get a lot of bumps, bruises, or abraisions. If we know anything, it's that the odds of him seeing the ball more is remote.
 
He will get a lot of carries but because KC will struggle moving the ball and be playing from behind..

320 carries

1,200 yds rushing

10TD

50 receptions...he could have a big year catching the ball

440 yds...and he is good in space coming out of the backfield

3 TD

1,600 yds and 12-15 TD seems reasonable...he might make a run at 2,000 yds total again if he catches a lot of balls.

 
he may, or may not get hurt, can't predict those things. he also may hold out, can't tell on that either. i do know the o-line has gone south, and the QB situation is unsettled. they are an aging team, and i question the ability of the coaching staff.

299 1225 4.1 9 and 32 275 8.6 2

 
Blackjacks said:
Not a big fan of L.J. this year due to seeing him breakdown. I know you can't predict injuries but...well...I am.252 carries 896 yards4 td's12 catches 48 yards.I giving him the exact year Alexander had last year.
Click to expand...
:shrug: why bother if you're just gonna throw something against the wall. same exact as alexander? give me a break. at least put something into it.lj is the very definition of a stud rb. everyone's scared of last season's workload but it was his first full season. he's got plenty more left in the tank. i saw enough of him creating something out of nothing last year that i'm not too worried about too much of a drop off (although i do expect a small drop off due to the record setting carry total).356/1530/1755/550/3
 
I don't really understand all these people projecting 375 or fewer carries for LJ.

- Herm talks every summer about giving the #2 RB more carries but he's an ultraconservitive coach that won't take the rock out of LJ's hands if the games are close

- The defense is improving(at least it will be when Allen comes back) and the games are going to be close grind-it-out games that only helps LJ

- LJ is going to be playing for a new contact and will take every carry he can to chase LT-type-$.

- It's not like anything is really improving in the passing game so why shouldn't Herm run?

It's funny, last year I was labled an "LJ-hater" because I wouldn't just chaulk him up for 2000+/20+ and this year I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.

404 carries

1652 yards

14 TD

39 receptions

341 yards

1 TD

I think he'll get plenty of looks but it wouldn't surprise me if his YPC continues to go down and I think he'll be a marked man in the redzone. But those stats will put him in the probowl and land him the big bucks for some poor saps in '08.

 
I am really down on LJ this year. Playing on IMO the worst team in football with a declining Oline, no passing game, a bad QB, and a bad defense I dont see Johnson putting up close to the #s he put up last year. Plus playing in the AFC West means facing the Broncos and SD 2 times. All that being said Johnson is too talented to let slip to far. I have him ranked as my 5th RB while his attempts will still be high his YPC and TD opportunities will be down.

320 att, 1300 yds, 12 tds, 45 rec, 380 yds, 2 tds

 
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can someone link to the rule change put in place this offseason that says Kansas City is no longer allowed to field an offensive line? Do they have to play with just 6 on offense? TIA

 
The sky is not falling but the deteriorating surrounding cast cannot be overlooked. LJ is an elite talent and we saw what he could do with an elite line/offense. Those were the good old days and he'll never see those again IMO. He's still a top 5 back though.

355 - 1455 - 13

40 - 400 - 1

Should be good for a 3-5 finish.

 
325 - 1250 - 14

65 - 575 - 4

I think he'll have another good year and that Herm will put the ball in his hands more with passes out of the backfield to give him some space and help out whatever lameduck QB is under center.

I, however, agree with earlier posts that suggest that he is ripe for being traded in keeper and dynasty leagues. I'm hoping to move him for 9-15 range RB and early (top3-4) pick. Losing Shields makes me nervous along with his workload of late and questionable talent surrounding him on "O"

 
A very solid but not spectacular year for Larry Johnson. There are a lot of question marks surrounding him but people know about them, they aren't catching people by surprise which could lead to some small value here.

1450 yards rushing and 14 td's

450 yards receiving and 4 td's

 
Ned said:
lj is the very definition of a stud rb.
Click to expand...
So SA being drafted #1 in many leagues last year did not make him "the very definition of a stud rb"?I just do not trust a guy coming off a year where he broke a record for number of carries. I don't care if it was his first full year. He is old for it being his first full year (28 yrs old or so).
 
Herm Edwards with C-Mart:

Carries per season:

2001: 333

2002: 261

2003: 323

2004: 371

2005: 220 (12 games)

Last year Larry Johnson carried the ball 416 times. Clearly, Herm likes to rush the ball but the number of attempts LJ had seems a bit higher than Herm's average.

 
spec1alk said:
Ned said:
lj is the very definition of a stud rb.
Click to expand...
So SA being drafted #1 in many leagues last year did not make him "the very definition of a stud rb"?I just do not trust a guy coming off a year where he broke a record for number of carries. I don't care if it was his first full year. He is old for it being his first full year (28 yrs old or so).
Click to expand...
alexander turning 30 and having a lot more wear and tear is not the same situation.
He is old for it being his first full year (28 yrs old or so).
Click to expand...
that's a good thing. he's got the mileage of a 25-26yr old rb.
 
Ned said:
that's a good thing. he's got the mileage of a 25-26yr old rb.
Click to expand...
If he were 30 and this were his first year starting would he still have the mileage and durability of a 25 year old? What if he never started a game in his life until he turned 35? 42? At what point do you realize the human body has a tendency to age-regardless of the number of carries?
 
AnonymousBob said:
Ned said:
that's a good thing. he's got the mileage of a 25-26yr old rb.
Click to expand...
If he were 30 and this were his first year starting would he still have the mileage and durability of a 25 year old? What if he never started a game in his life until he turned 35? 42? At what point do you realize the human body has a tendency to age-regardless of the number of carries?
Click to expand...
there's no magical number. each player is different.it's laughable to see the excuses that come out to knock this guy down. he's in the prime of his life and people still come up with excuses.
 
Ned said:
AnonymousBob said:
Ned said:
that's a good thing. he's got the mileage of a 25-26yr old rb.
Click to expand...
If he were 30 and this were his first year starting would he still have the mileage and durability of a 25 year old? What if he never started a game in his life until he turned 35? 42? At what point do you realize the human body has a tendency to age-regardless of the number of carries?
Click to expand...
there's no magical number. each player is different.it's laughable to see the excuses that come out to knock this guy down. he's in the prime of his life and people still come up with excuses.
Click to expand...
Who will be their starting qb next season? Who did the Chiefs lose on their o-line?How many carries did LJ have last season?His ypc dropped nearly a full yard from '05 to '06. I am not aware of any moves KC has made that would lead me to think their offense has improved. While LJ should still receive a LOT of carries, to think he'll get 400+ is a bit much. People are bringing up very valid questions about this guy and the team around him. If you would like to dismiss everything as people simply "knocking" him then that's your prerogative.
 
AnonymousBob said:
Ned said:
AnonymousBob said:
Ned said:
that's a good thing. he's got the mileage of a 25-26yr old rb.
Click to expand...
If he were 30 and this were his first year starting would he still have the mileage and durability of a 25 year old? What if he never started a game in his life until he turned 35? 42? At what point do you realize the human body has a tendency to age-regardless of the number of carries?
Click to expand...
there's no magical number. each player is different.it's laughable to see the excuses that come out to knock this guy down. he's in the prime of his life and people still come up with excuses.
Click to expand...
Who will be their starting qb next season? Who did the Chiefs lose on their o-line?How many carries did LJ have last season?His ypc dropped nearly a full yard from '05 to '06. I am not aware of any moves KC has made that would lead me to think their offense has improved. While LJ should still receive a LOT of carries, to think he'll get 400+ is a bit much. People are bringing up very valid questions about this guy and the team around him. If you would like to dismiss everything as people simply "knocking" him then that's your prerogative.
Click to expand...
In 2005 Droughns was 14th but scored only 2 td's with Dilfer and Frye as his qb's. If KC's qb's are no better than them, Johnson will still score many more td's than 2 and finish WAY higher than 14th.
 
Rushing

375-1800-18

Recieving

40-450-4

They have lost some key pieces on the o-line, but I think he still will dominate. I think that the Broncos D is overrated, and that SD and Oakland both played better last year than they actually are. It is amazing to me that so many people are going to write off a guy who is only a few years into his pro career.

 
Ned said:
it's laughable to see the excuses that come out to knock this guy down. he's in the prime of his life and people still come up with excuses.
Click to expand...
We are not saying LJ is going to turn into a caddilac williams, but I just don't feel he is deserving of a top 3 selection. He is about the 5th or 6th RB I would take. And there is usually a huge drop from the top 1-3 RBs and the 4-6 guys. Last year in zealots the RB4 (Gore) on scored %80 of the points that the RB3 (SJax) scored. I feel pretty strongly that while LJ will still be a fantastic "stud" RB, his ranking is too high. He will be in that same grouping of 250pt RBs.
 
Domination said:
Rushing375-1800-18Recieving40-450-4They have lost some key pieces on the o-line, but I think he still will dominate. I think that the Broncos D is overrated, and that SD and Oakland both played better last year than they actually are. It is amazing to me that so many people are going to write off a guy who is only a few years into his pro career.
Click to expand...
I don't think many are writing him off as much as they are down on the surrounding cast. Not sure about the Bronc's but the Chargers should actually be better on defense this year.
 
Banger said:
Domination said:
Rushing375-1800-18Recieving40-450-4They have lost some key pieces on the o-line, but I think he still will dominate. I think that the Broncos D is overrated, and that SD and Oakland both played better last year than they actually are. It is amazing to me that so many people are going to write off a guy who is only a few years into his pro career.
Click to expand...
I don't think many are writing him off as much as they are down on the surrounding cast. Not sure about the Bronc's but the Chargers should actually be better on defense this year.
Click to expand...
Oakland actually isn't horrible either.His playoff schedule is nice but he also has some really tough matchups this year.Chicago, Minn., SD twice, Den. twice, Oakland twice, Jax, GB and the Jets.He does get teh Lions and Tenn is my leagues playoffs though....if he makes it that long in the season?
 
Blackjacks said:
Banger said:
Domination said:
Rushing375-1800-18Recieving40-450-4They have lost some key pieces on the o-line, but I think he still will dominate. I think that the Broncos D is overrated, and that SD and Oakland both played better last year than they actually are. It is amazing to me that so many people are going to write off a guy who is only a few years into his pro career.
Click to expand...
I don't think many are writing him off as much as they are down on the surrounding cast. Not sure about the Bronc's but the Chargers should actually be better on defense this year.
Click to expand...
Oakland actually isn't horrible either.His playoff schedule is nice but he also has some really tough matchups this year.Chicago, Minn., SD twice, Den. twice, Oakland twice, Jax, GB and the Jets.He does get teh Lions and Tenn is my leagues playoffs though....if he makes it that long in the season?
Click to expand...
I was just thinking about how tough his schedule is for the first half of the season. So, I would like to incorporate that with the following issues:1) They may be playing from behind alot and may be forced to pass more to catch up 2) Deteriorating o-line 3) Not the most threatening group of WR's4) Herm has already mentioned he would like to get Michael Bennett more carries (what about Kolby Smith?)With that said, I can see the following out of LJ this year:328 - 1260 - 12 TD's44 - 380 - 2Still solid numbers indeed, but a far cry from what he's been known to do.
 
there's no way to predict injury so I'll leave that to you psychics. However, based on the fact that the offense will be led by the less-than-threatening Huard and also considering the 2nd All-Pro OL that will be lost to retirement, it's definitely within reason to expect LJ to dissappoint this season. Oh, BTW ... Herm Edwards has a history of being an offense killer. too many obstacles for LJ to overcome. I stilll predict atleast 1200 yrds .. but it'll be a hard-earned 1200 yrd season for him.

 
I don't believe most naysayers are predicting him to fall off a cliff. However, I think most people will agree he won't get as many carries as last year.

Will he be more productive this year than he was last season? If the offense is worse than last year will LJ receive as many goal line opportunities?

 
burd said:
there's no way to predict injury so I'll leave that to you psychics. However, based on the fact that the offense will be led by the less-than-threatening Huard and also considering the 2nd All-Pro OL that will be lost to retirement, it's definitely within reason to expect LJ to dissappoint this season. Oh, BTW ... Herm Edwards has a history of being an offense killer. too many obstacles for LJ to overcome. I stilll predict atleast 1200 yrds .. but it'll be a hard-earned 1200 yrd season for him.
Click to expand...
Let me ask you a ?. When Fred Taylor was getting hurt every year did you draft him the following year since you can't predict an injury? Alot of people stayed away due to the prior year. People will ask how is this the same? This is the same because Johnson follows in the tradition of rb's that following a high carry attempt year with injury just like Fred would follow each year with an injury. Could you guarantee Fred would get hurt, no but he always dropped a round or 2 due to the threat.Anyone that says they didn't think about injury history with Fred about 5 years ago is lying. And while this isn't the same situation it is still predicting injury.

 
Blackjacks said:
burd said:
there's no way to predict injury so I'll leave that to you psychics. However, based on the fact that the offense will be led by the less-than-threatening Huard and also considering the 2nd All-Pro OL that will be lost to retirement, it's definitely within reason to expect LJ to dissappoint this season. Oh, BTW ... Herm Edwards has a history of being an offense killer. too many obstacles for LJ to overcome. I stilll predict atleast 1200 yrds .. but it'll be a hard-earned 1200 yrd season for him.
Click to expand...
Let me ask you a ?. When Fred Taylor was getting hurt every year did you draft him the following year since you can't predict an injury? Alot of people stayed away due to the prior year. People will ask how is this the same? This is the same because Johnson follows in the tradition of rb's that following a high carry attempt year with injury just like Fred would follow each year with an injury. Could you guarantee Fred would get hurt, no but he always dropped a round or 2 due to the threat.Anyone that says they didn't think about injury history with Fred about 5 years ago is lying. And while this isn't the same situation it is still predicting injury.
Click to expand...
Taylor had a history of getting hurt. I'm not aware of LJ having a history of getting hurt. He had a lot of touches last year. Should we predict a higher chance of injuries for him simply because of that? How much are you dropping LT? He's touched the ball a LOT over the course of his career.

I feel there are legitimate reasons to question how well LJ will do this year but I'm not sure an injury concern should be one of them.

 
AnonymousBob said:
Blackjacks said:
burd said:
there's no way to predict injury so I'll leave that to you psychics. However, based on the fact that the offense will be led by the less-than-threatening Huard and also considering the 2nd All-Pro OL that will be lost to retirement, it's definitely within reason to expect LJ to dissappoint this season. Oh, BTW ... Herm Edwards has a history of being an offense killer. too many obstacles for LJ to overcome. I stilll predict atleast 1200 yrds .. but it'll be a hard-earned 1200 yrd season for him.
Click to expand...
Let me ask you a ?. When Fred Taylor was getting hurt every year did you draft him the following year since you can't predict an injury? Alot of people stayed away due to the prior year. People will ask how is this the same? This is the same because Johnson follows in the tradition of rb's that following a high carry attempt year with injury just like Fred would follow each year with an injury. Could you guarantee Fred would get hurt, no but he always dropped a round or 2 due to the threat.Anyone that says they didn't think about injury history with Fred about 5 years ago is lying. And while this isn't the same situation it is still predicting injury.
Click to expand...
Taylor had a history of getting hurt. I'm not aware of LJ having a history of getting hurt. He had a lot of touches last year. Should we predict a higher chance of injuries for him simply because of that? How much are you dropping LT? He's touched the ball a LOT over the course of his career.

I feel there are legitimate reasons to question how well LJ will do this year but I'm not sure an injury concern should be one of them.
Click to expand...
70% of the rb's at the top of the list of carries in a year in NFL history have had a significant hit the following year with missing games due to injury.All 10 rb's that top that list have atleast 500 yards missing in the following year. If you want to call that a coincidence (sp) than that's fine but 10 out of 10 is a pretty :rolleyes: #'s to me

 
LJ- 2006 KC 16 416 1789 4.3 17 66 41 410 10.0 2 (456 tuouches)

LT- 2006 SD 16 348 1815 5.2 28 80 56 508 9.1 3 (404 touches)

SJax-2006 STL 16 346 1528 4.4 13 111 90 806 9.0 3 (436 touches)

These are the only RB to touch the ball 400 times last year, and the #'s are all quite close. I think that if you are going to downgrade LJ, then you should be downgrading the Top 3.

In 2005 only 2 RB topped 400 touches (Tiki and Edge)

2004 only 1 (CMart)

2003 there were 5 (A Green, LT, J Lewis, Duece, R Williams) both Priest and Fragile Fred had over 390.

2002 there were only 2 (LT and R Williams)

Over the last 5 years there have been multiple RB to go over the 400 touches mark, and LT has done it 3 times. You can argue that it is touches and not carries, but your body still takes a pounding. I would think that it would be LT that everyone should be worried about and not LJ, especially considering this one last fact, which is the most telling stat to me.

LT career carries-2050

LJ career carries-892

 
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spec1alk said:
Blackjacks said:
Not a big fan of L.J. this year due to seeing him breakdown. I know you can't predict injuries but...well...I am.252 carries 896 yards4 td's12 catches 48 yards.I giving him the exact year Alexander had last year.
Click to expand...
I agree. I called the Alexander injury in advance last year and I think that LJ faces a similar situation this year. 425+ carries last year, I think he misses at least 4 games this year and is hobbled for 4+ more. LJ's situation mirrors SA's in another way that they are losing another staple of the O-Line in shields, like SEA lost Hutch. A guy just can't take 400+ carries a year like that with 8 in the box and lose o-line pieces without getting injured.
Click to expand...
predicting an injury for a guy who's just completed his first full season as a starter?!?!? wow.what have things come too when we're predicting injuries for guys with NO history of getting hurt, or missing games! so what if he carried the ball 400+ times. I would agree with you if LJ was 29, or 30,but he's still a young wipper-snapper with plenty left in the tank! I don't think there is such a thing as overusing a guy of his size this early in his career.. I love all the ambulance-chasing people on this site, who think that 400+ carries in one season is a death sentence, no matter what a guy's age is.. :mellow: I wish you were in my fantasy league, that's for sure! :yes: so, whats your take on Gore,then, if you're so down on LJ? if you are higher on Gore than LJ, that's hypocrisy! a guy with twice-blown knees, shoulder problems and a new OC, should NOT be ranked ahead of LJ..370 carries, 1702 yards, 4.6 per carry...20 total TDs.45 catches/315
 
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Domination said:
LJ- 2006 KC 16 416 1789 4.3 17 66 41 410 10.0 2 (456 tuouches)

LT- 2006 SD 16 348 1815 5.2 28 80 56 508 9.1 3 (404 touches)

SJax-2006 STL 16 346 1528 4.4 13 111 90 806 9.0 3 (436 touches)

These are the only RB to touch the ball 400 times last year, and the #'s are all quite close. I think that if you are going to downgrade LJ, then you should be downgrading the Top 3.

In 2005 only 2 RB topped 400 touches (Tiki and Edge)

2004 only 1 (CMart)

2003 there were 5 (A Green, LT, J Lewis, Duece, R Williams) both Priest and Fragile Fred had over 390.

2002 there were only 2 (LT and R Williams)

Over the last 5 years there have been multiple RB to go over the 400 touches mark, and LT has done it 3 times. You can argue that it is touches and not carries, but your body still takes a pounding. I would think that it would be LT that everyone should be worried about and not LJ, especially considering this one last fact, which is the most telling stat to me.

LT career carries-2050

LJ career carries-892
Click to expand...
Carries are the key here. LJ had about 70 more carries than LT or SJax. Thats over 4 more carries per game. Carries is where you get hurt with a 300lb defender falling on your leg, not a 190lb corner pushing you out of bounds.I'm not sure career carries has as much to do with it as carries in a season. I would like to see some data on that.

If carries and receptions were just as hard on the body, then WRs would not be able to play well into their 30s (Marvin at 35 still producing WR1 numbers, Galloway, TO, etc).

 
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