Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Im in total agreement with Ashcrofts post.A 35% drop would not surprise me at all. In fact, I think its conservative.
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Player Spotlight: Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
Ok, so its a little bold predicting an injury. But on the same token how can guys predict LJ as the next coming of emit smith after just 1 full season.Personally, I think Gore and LJ are about even value wise but I would rather have Gore in a dynasty because LJ is on a declining team while Gore is on an improving team. Buy low, sell high.predicting an injury for a guy who's just completed his first full season as a starter?!?!? wow.what have things come too when we're predicting injuries for guys with NO history of getting hurt, or missing games! so what if he carried the ball 400+ times. I would agree with you if LJ was 29, or 30,but he's still a young wipper-snapper with plenty left in the tank! I don't think there is such a thing as overusing a guy of his size this early in his career.. I love all the ambulance-chasing people on this site, who think that 400+ carries in one season is a death sentence, no matter what a guy's age is..I wish you were in my fantasy league, that's for sure! :X so, whats your take on Gore,then, if you're so down on LJ? if you are higher on Gore than LJ, that's hypocrisy! a guy with twice-blown knees, shoulder problems and a new OC, should NOT be ranked ahead of LJ..370 carries, 1702 yards, 4.6 per carry...20 total TDs.45 catches/315
Domination
Footballguy
LT has averaged 342 carries a year for his career, whereas LJ has averaged 223. LJ has never had any injury issues and although I understand your theory on the carries being rougher than recieving, he is still getting hit. If you consider that all teh RB being drafted around him have all had injury issues (LT, SJax, Gore, Westy, SA), I have a hard time thinking that a RB that is just coming into the prime of his career and has never had a major injury should be thought of as an injury riskk over the RBs stated previously.
The real shame is that if Roaf would have come back last year, the we might be talking about a 2000 yd rusher, which was the talk last offseason. Amazing that the guy went out and performed at the level that was expected of him and he is being downgraded because of it.
The real shame is that if Roaf would have come back last year, the we might be talking about a 2000 yd rusher, which was the talk last offseason. Amazing that the guy went out and performed at the level that was expected of him and he is being downgraded because of it.
joffer
Footballguy
i can't believe i'm getting sucked into this again, but what???? How is predicting Larry Johnson will get hurt similar to predicting Fred Taylor would get hurt?one had a history of injury, one didn'tone had over 400 carries, one didn'tBlackjacks said:
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Predicting someone getting hurt is like trying to predict the lottery numbers next week. Come on guys LJ is a stud period. Even with the O line declining he will still get his numbers. Also I am guessing that quite a few guys are predicting things without really watching LJ run. He rarely takes a straight ahead hit and often chooses to run out if bounds instead of turning upfieled with a shoulder into the tackler. This will result in fewer yards but many more cariies in his liftime as a RB.
Draft LJ any time after LT and me happy..
Draft LJ any time after LT and me happy..
he will be 28 in november. last time i checked, thats pretty close to 29.predicting an injury for a guy who's just completed his first full season as a starter?!?!? wow.what have things come too when we're predicting injuries for guys with NO history of getting hurt, or missing games! so what if he carried the ball 400+ times. I would agree with you if LJ was 29, or 30,
but he's still a young wipper-snapper with plenty left in the tank! I don't think there is such a thing as overusing a guy of his size this early in his career.. I love all the ambulance-chasing people on this site, who think that 400+ carries in one season is a death sentence, no matter what a guy's age is..
I wish you were in my fantasy league, that's for sure!
so, whats your take on Gore,then, if you're so down on LJ? if you are higher on Gore than LJ, that's hypocrisy! a guy with twice-blown knees, shoulder problems and a new OC, should NOT be ranked ahead of LJ..
370 carries, 1702 yards, 4.6 per carry...
20 total TDs.
45 catches/315
LJ's running style coupled with all those carries is what have people worried. a straight up runner, that runs like every carry will be his last. i applaud that kind of desire, but he's taking a great deal of punishment in doing so. add to the fact that the chiefs are literally falling apart around him, and it's a potential bad situation.
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
Are we incorporating the "800 yards, 5 TD cause i think he get hurt" into the final roundups? I don't think this is a good way to go about it if we are. I could go into the McNabb spotlight when it comes up and say "450 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT cause he'll get hurt in week 2"... I don't think it's right to predict injurys in threads where we are trying to get a concensous for rankings.
Phlash
Footballguy
he will be 28 in november. last time i checked, thats pretty close to 29.predicting an injury for a guy who's just completed his first full season as a starter?!?!? wow.what have things come too when we're predicting injuries for guys with NO history of getting hurt, or missing games! so what if he carried the ball 400+ times. I would agree with you if LJ was 29, or 30,
but he's still a young wipper-snapper with plenty left in the tank! I don't think there is such a thing as overusing a guy of his size this early in his career.. I love all the ambulance-chasing people on this site, who think that 400+ carries in one season is a death sentence, no matter what a guy's age is..
I wish you were in my fantasy league, that's for sure!
so, whats your take on Gore,then, if you're so down on LJ? if you are higher on Gore than LJ, that's hypocrisy! a guy with twice-blown knees, shoulder problems and a new OC, should NOT be ranked ahead of LJ..
370 carries, 1702 yards, 4.6 per carry...
20 total TDs.
45 catches/315
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I don't know if I've ever seen LJ run out of bounds instead of punish a defender. I'm sure it has happened but I would say it isn't the norm. I really do like LJ as a rb and I hate to predict injuries but I think a big part of FF is following trends and I see a trend here to be worried about. I can't predict good #'s for a guy I think will get hurt, sorry.
Reservoir Dog
Footballguy
400 carries, 1600 yards, 13 TD's
35 catches, 300 yards, 3 TD's
total = 1900 yards, 16 TD's
35 catches, 300 yards, 3 TD's
total = 1900 yards, 16 TD's
Ned
Footballguy
didn't you know? he's the next chris brown...
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lord_helmet
Footballguy
Some people here sure makes you wonder about that sometimes don't they ?
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Nobody is disputing the fact he will "get his numbers". What we're trying to figure out is what those numbers will be. As you pointed out, his o-line is declining. From '05 to '06 his ypc dropped nearly a full yard. You don't think losing another pro-bowler on the line will affect his stats? A BIG part of what made LJ so studly the past two seasons were his touchdowns. He had 19 last year and 21 the year before. If the team suddenly had a harder time getting to the goal line shouldn't this be a MAJOR concern?
He had a record number of carriest last season. I think we all agree he will get less work than last season. Will he:
A) Be more productive
B) Be equally productive
C) Be less productive
So, here is a running back who is going to get fewer carries than last year and his offensive line will be worse than last year as well. The quarterback situation may or may not be better than last year but at this point we'll be generous and say it's equal to last season.
Routilla
Footballguy
All I can say is if you are afraid then don't draft LJ. I am more concerned about most every other RB outside of LT2, SJAX, and LJ.1800 total yards and 18 TDs as I think KC will be improved on both sides of the ball.
nice try
Reservoir Dog
Footballguy
For you guys with the crystal balls and ouija boards predicting injuries, can you give me the Power Ball numbers for this coming Friday?
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Routilla
Footballguy
Yes and I need some stock quotes as well. LOL!!!
Domination
Footballguy
Yes and I need some stock quotes as well. LOL!!!
On both of the above postings.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Actually if you look at the numbers Huard was a better QB than Trent Green both as an NFL QB and a fantasy one.Plus, here are LJs numbers with the two QBs:
With Trent Green
Rushing: 216-966-7
YPR: 4.47
Rec: 17-147-0
Touches: 233
Total yards: 1113
TDs: 7
FPPG (non PPR): 19.16
FPPG (PPR): 21.28
With Damon Huard
Rushing: 200-823-10
YPR: 4.12
Rec: 24-263-2
Touches: 224
Total yards: 1086
TDs: 12
FPPG (non PPR): 22.58
FPPG (PPR): 25.56
Huard in at QB will be better for LJ. He is doing more per touch than with Green.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Re-read my post. I said let's assume the quarterback does no better but no worse than last year. Let's say the qb repeats last year's performance.He's still going to get fewer carries than last season and he's still going to be running behind an inferior offensive line.Snotbubbles said:
If you believe offensive lines play little to no role in how well a fantasy running back performs then best of luck to you. I can't imagine LJ simply falling off the face of the fantasy world, I'm simply hesitant to think he's as valuable as many are thinking.
B. Nugget
Footballguy
That is the thing most are missing...Green was horrible last year. If Croyle beats out Huard, that is a good thing because it means he has stepped up his game.LJ did what he did in spite of the team not having any threat of the pass last year, and I can't even count the times Green missed him out of the backfield. Also, it will hurt to lose Shields from a leadership standpoint, but there is talent on the OL, so the dropoff in LJs production will be minimal if everyone stays healthy.Snotbubbles said:
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Inferior offensive line? Inferior to who? I seem to remember a couple of years ago LT had probably one of the worst offensive lines going into a season. It certainly didn't effect his performance. If you believe Will Shields blocked everyone by himself best of luck to you. Replacing Shields will be 10x easier then trying to replace Roaf last year was and LJ still put up some impressive numbers. Plus, why should we assume that the QB play stays the same. I just showed you that Huard was better than Trent Green last year. Why not assume that the QB play will be better? The only way it stays the same is if Trent Green comes back.
Banger
Footballguy
Inferior to their prior lines. What's being masked by LJ's record setting # of carries is the fact that his ypc dropped almost a complete yard per carry last year. That's a lot. If LJ's carries are reduced to 350 (which still would have been the most in the league last year) from his record setting 416 carries and assume the line gets no worse than last year and he still averages 4.3 ypc, he'd end up with 300 yards less than last year (from 1800 to 1500). The only RB in the top 10 with a worse ypc was Rudi. Bad lines did effect LT's performance, he's just the best player in the league and didn't effect him as much as it would other backs. Look at what he did last year with his 1st real good line, he broke a dozen records. Look what Priest did when they had a great line, he broke records.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Snotbubbles said:
Trent Green started 8 games last year. Huard also started eight games. Look at your own stats-LJ had a higher ypc when Green was starting. As Banger already said, this year's offensive line will be inferior to last year's. His yards per carry dropped nearly a full yard without Roaf. Will his ypc drop even further without Shields? Maybe. Maybe not. Do you really expect it to INCREASE? That seems foolish. Let's say his yards per carry does not drop at all despite the fact they will be missing a pro bowl offensive lineman. He had 416 carries last year. I find his chances of hitting that number again to be beyond remote. C-Mart never carried the ball more than 371 times during Herm's tenure with the Jets. Let's say LJ gets 380 carries. Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan combined averaged 367 carries each season so I don't think that's an unreasonable number of carries to expect out of LJ.
4.12 ypc (what he did last year with Huard) x 380 carries = 1565 yards. In yardage alone that is enough to rank him amongst the best at seasons end. I understand why you think so highly of him. I'm not as confident as you are in the team around him. Nor am I sure they'll be able to get into the red zone as often to give him another 17 td's.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Chester Taylor had a worse ypc as well, though he only finished top ten in yardage.
az_prof
Footballguy
I don't get into exact numeric predictions, but I expect LJ to have a signficant drop-off this year, but to still be a top 10 RB. First, as others have noted the OL is getting worse, not better, and I am a firm believer that a lot of the success of RBs in KC in the past has been the OL. Isn't it interesting how Blaylock looked like a world beater, and maybe even better than LJ, when he was in KC; then he goes to NY and he can't even crack the starting lineup?
Second, coach has indicated that he is going to use other RBs more to keep LJ fresher. How many carries will he lose? No one knows; but when healthy Bennett can be at least effective as LJ.
Third, I am worried about his contract situation and the possibility he may hold out during camp. How well will he perform if he misses most of camp? Will he be even more likely to get injured.
All of these reasons make me put a little less value on LJ.
Second, coach has indicated that he is going to use other RBs more to keep LJ fresher. How many carries will he lose? No one knows; but when healthy Bennett can be at least effective as LJ.
Third, I am worried about his contract situation and the possibility he may hold out during camp. How well will he perform if he misses most of camp? Will he be even more likely to get injured.
All of these reasons make me put a little less value on LJ.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I love how you pick and choose things to fit your argument. First:
OK so if we're using the ypc catch for Green, shouldn't you also look at the TDs. Which you fail to do here:
Because in 8 games he scored 12TDs with Huard. Yet only 7 with Green.KC as a team scored 22.3 points per game with Huard and only 18.5 with Green.Plus you're ignoring the fact the with Huard at QB LJ becomes a more dangerous reciever. So while his rushing totals might not be as high, his recieving totals will go up.You continue to fail to see that the offense ran better when Trent Green wasn't in there. So the entire offense is returning with the exception of Will Shields and because of that we are supposed to deduce that Larry Johnson will be worse this year. If I'm gonna do the projections using Huards stats (and your rushing attempt projections) I come up with this:380-1565-2048-526-4This is bad how?
Banger
Footballguy
I should have been more specific, I meant top 10 in fantasy points.
Futeki
Footballguy
Even better. In the first four games when teams didn't respect Huard and stacked the line, LJ went for:88 carries, 289 yards (3.28 ypc)
However, he was still productive in fantasy because he is a stud. Huard got him the ball in the passing game.
When teams started playing them normally in Huard's next four games at QB, LJ went for:
112 carries, 534 yards (4.77 ypc)
LJ was more productive with Huard at QB, period. Green was terrible last year. I think everyone can agree that LJ will get fewer carries. Fewer carries almost always coincides with an increase in ypc (excluding injury)! They naysayers want the lower ypc when defenses were stacked for LJ, but wish to ignore the receiving threat he became. The naysayers want to reduce his carries, yet give him the same ypc at best, and then claim generosity. He'll get his yardage whether it be on the ground or through the air. The Chiefs O should be about the same as last year. LJ will still command the same lion's share of those TDs even with reduced carries.
If LJ gets hurt, or Croyle gets rushed into the starting lineup although he doesn't deserve it, then this entire exercise is pointless.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Why? you have the winning numbers to the Power Ball.Yes and I need some stock quotes as well. LOL!!!
Routilla
Footballguy
I want to buy Great Hans Lollik & Little Hans Lollik and build a dream home on it.Why? you have the winning numbers to the Power Ball.
http://www.privateislandsonline.com/great-...hans-lollik.htm
CA_7
Footballguy
Edwards wants LJ to have 60 catches....
For Johnson, there’s a catch
Edwards plans for Chiefs’ tailback to have more balls thrown to him next season.
By JASON KING ~ The Kansas City Star
One year after setting an NFL record with 416 carries, Chiefs All-Pro Larry Johnson will likely become an ever bigger part of Kansas City’s offense in 2007.
So says head coach Herm Edwards, who on Wednesday expressed his intentions to get Johnson more touches not as a tailback — but as a receiver.
“That’s the next step in his development as a running back in this league: His ability to come out of the backfield running routes,” Edwards said. “We need to get the ball to our backs a little more than we did last year.”
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/129877.html
For Johnson, there’s a catch
Edwards plans for Chiefs’ tailback to have more balls thrown to him next season.
By JASON KING ~ The Kansas City Star
One year after setting an NFL record with 416 carries, Chiefs All-Pro Larry Johnson will likely become an ever bigger part of Kansas City’s offense in 2007.
So says head coach Herm Edwards, who on Wednesday expressed his intentions to get Johnson more touches not as a tailback — but as a receiver.
“That’s the next step in his development as a running back in this league: His ability to come out of the backfield running routes,” Edwards said. “We need to get the ball to our backs a little more than we did last year.”
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/129877.html
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'll add a few TDs, and some receptions, but this is almost exactly what I see.320 carries1,200 yds rushing12TD60 receptions480 yds4 TDThat should be top 5, maybe top 3.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Buyer Beware: KC has question marks all over the offense. The key to their recent past success was the offensive line which is no longer an elite group. LJ will be selected 1.2-1.6 in most leagues. If he fell to 1.6 I would consider him although I would hope I would not be in any position to select him. With questions at WR, OL, and QB, a tough schedule, and recent work load, I would stay away from LJ.
LJ
Carries: 320
Avg: 3.9
Yards: 1287
TDs: 11
May be an OK selection at 1.6, but not enough for much more.
LJ
Carries: 320
Avg: 3.9
Yards: 1287
TDs: 11
May be an OK selection at 1.6, but not enough for much more.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Glad this was bumped. I argued against the guy but failed miserably. Unless someone is predicting injury I fail to see how he won't be top five.
Fighting Noles
Footballguy
Does Croyle starting @ QB, because it's starting to sound like that's a REAL possibility, impact anyones projections here???
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
Everyone was predicting a 
last year. "He lost his OC" "He lost his Coach" "He lost one of his best OL" "He lost his lead blocker in Richardson." People were all over how LJ was going to suck.
How'd that pan out again?
I'm not saying LJ is going to get 2000 yards and 20 TDs. But all the people expecting a total collapse are overreacting IMO.
ETA: As for all the comments on the tough schedule, SOS had the chiefs as the third worst schedule for RBs before last season. The Chiefs played 8 former top 10 rush defenses.
Is this years schedule looking harder than last year's did at this time?
last year. "He lost his OC" "He lost his Coach" "He lost one of his best OL" "He lost his lead blocker in Richardson." People were all over how LJ was going to suck.How'd that pan out again?
I'm not saying LJ is going to get 2000 yards and 20 TDs. But all the people expecting a total collapse are overreacting IMO.
ETA: As for all the comments on the tough schedule, SOS had the chiefs as the third worst schedule for RBs before last season. The Chiefs played 8 former top 10 rush defenses.
Is this years schedule looking harder than last year's did at this time?
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Fighting Noles
Footballguy
I don't think any of the people here (maybe 1) are predicting a total collapse of LJ. But, if last year people listened to the things you just mentioned and happened to take LT 1st because of it (along with SA's huge # of carries) they were pretty darn happy. It's all relative. None of the "sky is falling" people took Jordan or Caddy over LJ last year (the debate was the order of the big 3). Since we are trying to "slot" a top 5 guy here I think Croyle possibly starting could impact that situation IMO. This year people are trying to decide between SJ & Gore (& maybe SA, not me) when it comes to LJ so I think it's a fair question to ask...
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
To put it in laymans terms, the offense run through him and defences know it.
Thier passing game doesnt keep D's honest and its 8 in the box full time.
No matter how you dice the O-Line up they lost 2 hall of famers in the last 2 years.
Larry is a beast by himself but playing wreckless like he does getting over 400 carries is worrysome with all the other factors considered.
Im comfortable saying he wont live upto his ADP this year.
Thier passing game doesnt keep D's honest and its 8 in the box full time.
No matter how you dice the O-Line up they lost 2 hall of famers in the last 2 years.
Larry is a beast by himself but playing wreckless like he does getting over 400 carries is worrysome with all the other factors considered.
Im comfortable saying he wont live upto his ADP this year.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Your talking about me
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Bump for 20/20 discussion.Was Blackjacks right to predict an injury to LJ? He did get hurt...it seems Blackjacks made a good call despite everyone piling on.70% of the rb's at the top of the list of carries in a year in NFL history have had a significant hit the following year with missing games due to injury.All 10 rb's that top that list have atleast 500 yards missing in the following year. If you want to call that a coincidence (sp) than that's fine but 10 out of 10 is a pretty
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Thee are a lot of factors at play here . .. 1) Last I saw a number, the average number of games played by RBs per year was between 13.5 and 14.Bump for 20/20 discussion.Was Blackjacks right to predict an injury to LJ? He did get hurt...it seems Blackjacks made a good call despite everyone piling on.70% of the rb's at the top of the list of carries in a year in NFL history have had a significant hit the following year with missing games due to injury.All 10 rb's that top that list have atleast 500 yards missing in the following year. If you want to call that a coincidence (sp) than that's fine but 10 out of 10 is a pretty#'s to me
2) Most of the Top 10 get HUGE touches to rank that high. There are many variables in game conditions, health of even other players, etc. that may not allow the player to get that many touches again.
3) A drop off of 500 yards for a player that has between 2000-2200 is not really a ton.
4) "Regression to the mean" is a mathematical concept that happens most of the time for many players/situations.
Add it all up, and repeating an elite performance is extremely difficult and the number of times a player has paired elite seasons is pretty rare. so when Barry Bonds hits 73 home runs, take the under the next year for a repeat and by a large margin.
There are only so many LTs, Emmitts, and Faulks to go around. Lots of RBs get hurt . . . it's one of the positions where people get hurt the most.
As for predicting an injury to LJ, IMO he got lucky but will take credit for being right. There were many other factors that would have led people to conclude he was in for a dropoff (OL issues, lack of an established QB, limited WR threats, etc.).
Had LJ played all 16 games, he still would have ranked in the Top 8-10 running backs. Then we could have debated if that should have been viewed as a disappointment or even a bust.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
While I hate to disagree with the master which is David, I'm not being sarcastic David your the man and I always like your views, but I don't think LJ would have been top 10 if you use this view with everyone. What I mean by that is if no rb's got hurt last year and all rb's played a full 16 games (going off an avg. per a game played) LJ wouldn't have been a top ten back at the end of the year. Look at the games in which Larry played...was he really tearing it up? I'm not seeing it. Also as for predicitng an injury you can look through my history on this board and I'm not a poster who makes such outlandish claims. I looked at the stats showing rb's following year after 400 carries and sometimes history repeats itself. In this case it did. Even if LJ would have stayed healthy I wouldn't have liked him last year due to his surroundings. Not much has changed going into this year except he has had an injury now to go with other reasons not to like him.Thee are a lot of factors at play here . .. 1) Last I saw a number, the average number of games played by RBs per year was between 13.5 and 14.Bump for 20/20 discussion.Was Blackjacks right to predict an injury to LJ? He did get hurt...it seems Blackjacks made a good call despite everyone piling on.70% of the rb's at the top of the list of carries in a year in NFL history have had a significant hit the following year with missing games due to injury.All 10 rb's that top that list have atleast 500 yards missing in the following year. If you want to call that a coincidence (sp) than that's fine but 10 out of 10 is a pretty
2) Most of the Top 10 get HUGE touches to rank that high. There are many variables in game conditions, health of even other players, etc. that may not allow the player to get that many touches again.
3) A drop off of 500 yards for a player that has between 2000-2200 is not really a ton.
4) "Regression to the mean" is a mathematical concept that happens most of the time for many players/situations.
Add it all up, and repeating an elite performance is extremely difficult and the number of times a player has paired elite seasons is pretty rare. so when Barry Bonds hits 73 home runs, take the under the next year for a repeat and by a large margin.
There are only so many LTs, Emmitts, and Faulks to go around. Lots of RBs get hurt . . . it's one of the positions where people get hurt the most.
As for predicting an injury to LJ, IMO he got lucky but will take credit for being right. There were many other factors that would have led people to conclude he was in for a dropoff (OL issues, lack of an established QB, limited WR threats, etc.).
Had LJ played all 16 games, he still would have ranked in the Top 8-10 running backs. Then we could have debated if that should have been viewed as a disappointment or even a bust.
David, you are the man and if you come back....come back lightly. I know your a much better debater than me. I'm a bluegill and your a shark in this pool.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
In some ways we are saying the same thing, in others we are not (and either way it doesn't really matter). Yes, guys with big workloads get hurt, but running the numbers will show that they don't get hurt or are any less productive than other "non big carry" RBs. In fact, they missed slightly less time and were slightly more productive than the field of other RBs.As for LJ, he scored 99 points playing in only 8 games. Double his games played = double his scoring. So he would have scored 198 points . . . which would have ranked him tied for 7th last year. As I see it, there's not much to debate here.While I hate to disagree with the master which is David, I'm not being sarcastic David your the man and I always like your views, but I don't think LJ would have been top 10 if you use this view with everyone. What I mean by that is if no rb's got hurt last year and all rb's played a full 16 games (going off an avg. per a game played) LJ wouldn't have been a top ten back at the end of the year. Look at the games in which Larry played...was he really tearing it up? I'm not seeing it. Also as for predicitng an injury you can look through my history on this board and I'm not a poster who makes such outlandish claims. I looked at the stats showing rb's following year after 400 carries and sometimes history repeats itself. In this case it did. Even if LJ would have stayed healthy I wouldn't have liked him last year due to his surroundings. Not much has changed going into this year except he has had an injury now to go with other reasons not to like him.Thee are a lot of factors at play here . .. 1) Last I saw a number, the average number of games played by RBs per year was between 13.5 and 14.Bump for 20/20 discussion.Was Blackjacks right to predict an injury to LJ? He did get hurt...it seems Blackjacks made a good call despite everyone piling on.70% of the rb's at the top of the list of carries in a year in NFL history have had a significant hit the following year with missing games due to injury.All 10 rb's that top that list have atleast 500 yards missing in the following year. If you want to call that a coincidence (sp) than that's fine but 10 out of 10 is a pretty#'s to me
2) Most of the Top 10 get HUGE touches to rank that high. There are many variables in game conditions, health of even other players, etc. that may not allow the player to get that many touches again.
3) A drop off of 500 yards for a player that has between 2000-2200 is not really a ton.
4) "Regression to the mean" is a mathematical concept that happens most of the time for many players/situations.
Add it all up, and repeating an elite performance is extremely difficult and the number of times a player has paired elite seasons is pretty rare. so when Barry Bonds hits 73 home runs, take the under the next year for a repeat and by a large margin.
There are only so many LTs, Emmitts, and Faulks to go around. Lots of RBs get hurt . . . it's one of the positions where people get hurt the most.
As for predicting an injury to LJ, IMO he got lucky but will take credit for being right. There were many other factors that would have led people to conclude he was in for a dropoff (OL issues, lack of an established QB, limited WR threats, etc.).
Had LJ played all 16 games, he still would have ranked in the Top 8-10 running backs. Then we could have debated if that should have been viewed as a disappointment or even a bust.
David, you are the man and if you come back....come back lightly. I know your a much better debater than me. I'm a bluegill and your a shark in this pool.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Your putting him #7 without doing the same for everyone else though. For example using avg points per a game LJ ranked out of the top ten. That is all I was stating. LJ's avg. points per a game was 11.75 (non ppr league) That would have him out of the top ten as long as you prorated all other rb's. Your right not to much to debate here except if you can convince me LJ has gotten on a better team somehow in the last year, Gotten younger or healthier, gotten involved ina better offense or gotten a better oline. As ong as all things stayed the same I'll still keep him out of my top 15 rb's.In some ways we are saying the same thing, in others we are not (and either way it doesn't really matter). Yes, guys with big workloads get hurt, but running the numbers will show that they don't get hurt or are any less productive than other "non big carry" RBs. In fact, they missed slightly less time and were slightly more productive than the field of other RBs.As for LJ, he scored 99 points playing in only 8 games. Double his games played = double his scoring. So he would have scored 198 points . . . which would have ranked him tied for 7th last year. As I see it, there's not much to debate here.While I hate to disagree with the master which is David, I'm not being sarcastic David your the man and I always like your views, but I don't think LJ would have been top 10 if you use this view with everyone. What I mean by that is if no rb's got hurt last year and all rb's played a full 16 games (going off an avg. per a game played) LJ wouldn't have been a top ten back at the end of the year. Look at the games in which Larry played...was he really tearing it up? I'm not seeing it. Also as for predicitng an injury you can look through my history on this board and I'm not a poster who makes such outlandish claims. I looked at the stats showing rb's following year after 400 carries and sometimes history repeats itself. In this case it did. Even if LJ would have stayed healthy I wouldn't have liked him last year due to his surroundings. Not much has changed going into this year except he has had an injury now to go with other reasons not to like him.Thee are a lot of factors at play here . .. 1) Last I saw a number, the average number of games played by RBs per year was between 13.5 and 14.Bump for 20/20 discussion.Was Blackjacks right to predict an injury to LJ? He did get hurt...it seems Blackjacks made a good call despite everyone piling on.70% of the rb's at the top of the list of carries in a year in NFL history have had a significant hit the following year with missing games due to injury.All 10 rb's that top that list have atleast 500 yards missing in the following year. If you want to call that a coincidence (sp) than that's fine but 10 out of 10 is a pretty
2) Most of the Top 10 get HUGE touches to rank that high. There are many variables in game conditions, health of even other players, etc. that may not allow the player to get that many touches again.
3) A drop off of 500 yards for a player that has between 2000-2200 is not really a ton.
4) "Regression to the mean" is a mathematical concept that happens most of the time for many players/situations.
Add it all up, and repeating an elite performance is extremely difficult and the number of times a player has paired elite seasons is pretty rare. so when Barry Bonds hits 73 home runs, take the under the next year for a repeat and by a large margin.
There are only so many LTs, Emmitts, and Faulks to go around. Lots of RBs get hurt . . . it's one of the positions where people get hurt the most.
As for predicting an injury to LJ, IMO he got lucky but will take credit for being right. There were many other factors that would have led people to conclude he was in for a dropoff (OL issues, lack of an established QB, limited WR threats, etc.).
Had LJ played all 16 games, he still would have ranked in the Top 8-10 running backs. Then we could have debated if that should have been viewed as a disappointment or even a bust.
David, you are the man and if you come back....come back lightly. I know your a much better debater than me. I'm a bluegill and your a shark in this pool.
This is not the best method to factor a players partial season of work into a ranking. By this reasoning, Ronnie Brown should be a top 3 pick this year.Was LJ's schedule harder or softer the second half? How effective was the QB play likely to be? Were there any injuries to the o-line after LJ got hurt?There are way too many factors to effectively predict what LJ *could* have done *had he* been healthy.Even if you do not predict an injury this year you still have to be cautious with LJ. He still has a rebuilding O-Line and a very questionable QB situation.I don't know that I would predict another injury this season (I am very tempted to though), but I would be VERY leary of taking LJ in the first round.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
LJ's schedule was easier in the second half. He had played a very difficult schedule in the first 8 games. He had a rebuilding line and questionable qb last year. Herm Edwards is still going to feed him the ball. Why are you tempted to predict another injury?
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