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Doug Martin vs Jamaal Charles (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kizman
- Start date
Ok....no thoughts yet....I'll give you mine....
I am intrigued by Reid in KC and his history of working his RBs and how involved they are in the scheme. Also, JC had a pretty good year in last years system. I would look for his numbers to improve and in a performance PPR league....I could see some huge games...Also love the schedule...looks favorable...
As for Martin, I am intrigued by him having a healthy O-Line which should make him a bit more consistent in yards per game, yet still allow for some big scores....
Currently leaning Charles....but its not easy as I am a Bucs fan and it would be fun to watch him having a huge year and hopefully helping the Bucs to a improved season.
I am intrigued by Reid in KC and his history of working his RBs and how involved they are in the scheme. Also, JC had a pretty good year in last years system. I would look for his numbers to improve and in a performance PPR league....I could see some huge games...Also love the schedule...looks favorable...
As for Martin, I am intrigued by him having a healthy O-Line which should make him a bit more consistent in yards per game, yet still allow for some big scores....
Currently leaning Charles....but its not easy as I am a Bucs fan and it would be fun to watch him having a huge year and hopefully helping the Bucs to a improved season.
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Warrior
Footballguy
Everything you wrote is basic common knowledge about both players. At this point, nobody will be able to make a good argument for one over the other. They both have incredible upside, it's just a matter of preference.
I'd take whichever one I didn't already have in another league. They're that close.
I've been waiting for somebody to ask this very question. I have the #2 pick in a league and have been planning on taking Martin, actually. (I'm just not feeling Foster this year, won't argue with anybody who wants to take him, but to me it's between Martin and Charles)
I've been penciling Doug Martin in over Charles. My reasons for giving Martin the edge are the consistent staff and offense from previous years and the upgrades to the Guard position (and of course how well he did as a mere rookie). There are lots of other great things going for Martin, but most of them apply to Charles as well. What Charles has over Martin is a longer history (not just one year) of studly performance (while still being young and fresh enough to get it done).
That's how I see it.
I'd be thrilled with either as my RB1, and will take whichever falls to me with my #4 pick league, happily.
I've been penciling Doug Martin in over Charles. My reasons for giving Martin the edge are the consistent staff and offense from previous years and the upgrades to the Guard position (and of course how well he did as a mere rookie). There are lots of other great things going for Martin, but most of them apply to Charles as well. What Charles has over Martin is a longer history (not just one year) of studly performance (while still being young and fresh enough to get it done).
That's how I see it.
I'd be thrilled with either as my RB1, and will take whichever falls to me with my #4 pick league, happily.
Khy
Footballguy
Charles for me by a pretty fair margin (although if you've followed any of my posts on these boards you'll have noticed that I'm picking Charles 1.01 this year and honestly don't want Martin any higher than 1.04 at best). This is for several reasons.
If Charles wasn't on one of the worst offenses in the NFL last season he'd probably have been a Top 3 RB last year. His points were really only hurt because of his lack of scoring production. This season he'll see more touches than last season and he'll probably eclipse 60 receptions with ease. He's also now on an offense which boasts one of the better offensive lines in the league, has a new good steady and consistent QB and one of the greater offensive minded head coaches we've seen in the past two decades. All of the writing is on the wall for Charles this season short of an ACL tear I really think he's the most likely RB to be RB1 at the end of the season. Also bear in mind that last year there were several games where Charles saw under 10 carries because his coaches are awful. That simply won't happen with Reid there. He'll be seeing 15+ touches a game more or less guaranteed. My projection for Charles this season will be 290 carries, 1500 yards, 10 TDs. It's not super likely he eclipses 300 carries, Andy Reid RBs usually don't, he'll more than make up for that in receptions though and will likely lead all RBs in that statistic when 2013 is in the books.
Martin produced 33% of his production all of last season in two games last year. If those two games were changed up to his 'average' on the season he would have finished closer to around RB8 or 9 instead of RB2. I'm firmly in the camp that Martin has a rather large sophomore slump this season. Last years numbers were 319 carries, 1454 yards, 4.6ypc and 11 TDs. I think we'd be lucky to see 300, 1260 yards, 4.2ypc and 8 TDs this season. Still a solid season but a far cry from a Top 3 fantasy pick. I'm taking these numbers mainly assuming he'll be 'more consistent' this season and by being more consistent his numbers will drop as he won't put up a 4TD game vs Oakland this year. Some people have made the argument in other threads of
So yeah for me, it's Charles by a pretty large mile.
If Charles wasn't on one of the worst offenses in the NFL last season he'd probably have been a Top 3 RB last year. His points were really only hurt because of his lack of scoring production. This season he'll see more touches than last season and he'll probably eclipse 60 receptions with ease. He's also now on an offense which boasts one of the better offensive lines in the league, has a new good steady and consistent QB and one of the greater offensive minded head coaches we've seen in the past two decades. All of the writing is on the wall for Charles this season short of an ACL tear I really think he's the most likely RB to be RB1 at the end of the season. Also bear in mind that last year there were several games where Charles saw under 10 carries because his coaches are awful. That simply won't happen with Reid there. He'll be seeing 15+ touches a game more or less guaranteed. My projection for Charles this season will be 290 carries, 1500 yards, 10 TDs. It's not super likely he eclipses 300 carries, Andy Reid RBs usually don't, he'll more than make up for that in receptions though and will likely lead all RBs in that statistic when 2013 is in the books.
Martin produced 33% of his production all of last season in two games last year. If those two games were changed up to his 'average' on the season he would have finished closer to around RB8 or 9 instead of RB2. I'm firmly in the camp that Martin has a rather large sophomore slump this season. Last years numbers were 319 carries, 1454 yards, 4.6ypc and 11 TDs. I think we'd be lucky to see 300, 1260 yards, 4.2ypc and 8 TDs this season. Still a solid season but a far cry from a Top 3 fantasy pick. I'm taking these numbers mainly assuming he'll be 'more consistent' this season and by being more consistent his numbers will drop as he won't put up a 4TD game vs Oakland this year. Some people have made the argument in other threads of
My only real response to that would be how can you call him not-inconsistent with only one year of production behind him? We have to look at the information we have and the information we have could go to say that Martin had two lucky games against two of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL last season. The rest of his games were all average at best. So I'd rather go with the majority of the information (14 games) that say he's an average to above average player than include the minority information (2 games) that portrays him as an elite player.
So yeah for me, it's Charles by a pretty large mile.
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Shutout
Footballguy
For me its Charles. I really don't have anything to add that KHY didn't say. I know people start leaking in their pants whenever any RB under 25 shows good promise but the real known in this one is Charles because he has been a very good RB even when faced with about the worst case scenarios you can think of.
He is like the Larry Fitzgerald of RBs. Its like the fantasy gods said "Ok, let's take this cat and put him on a terrible team that has to play from behind and play against every known strength in his game..What? He's still good? Well then, let's give him the crappiest QB we can find? What? That didn't work? Ok then, let's rotate that crappy QB with an equally inept QB and kill all hope of consistency? WHAT?? You gotta be kiddin' me. Ok, shred that knee. That'll fix 'em...and add a totally clueless coach. What??? Ok, we give up..he's passed the gauntlet of tests. Reward him by giving him everything in 2013..
So, yeah, Charles' success despite haiving anything in his favor bodes well for him in 2013. Martin will probably be really good but I think KHY is right when he points out those outlier games he had. It really bumps up the compiled numbers and makes it out of focus a bit.
He is like the Larry Fitzgerald of RBs. Its like the fantasy gods said "Ok, let's take this cat and put him on a terrible team that has to play from behind and play against every known strength in his game..What? He's still good? Well then, let's give him the crappiest QB we can find? What? That didn't work? Ok then, let's rotate that crappy QB with an equally inept QB and kill all hope of consistency? WHAT?? You gotta be kiddin' me. Ok, shred that knee. That'll fix 'em...and add a totally clueless coach. What??? Ok, we give up..he's passed the gauntlet of tests. Reward him by giving him everything in 2013..
So, yeah, Charles' success despite haiving anything in his favor bodes well for him in 2013. Martin will probably be really good but I think KHY is right when he points out those outlier games he had. It really bumps up the compiled numbers and makes it out of focus a bit.
silentcoach
Footballguy
When you perceive both players as equal, take whoever has the better SOS--of course sos is another debate.
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silentcoach
Footballguy
I like this post but I think 290 carries is using a ceiling instead of a base.
Leading rushers under Ried the last 5 years
2012 - Mccoy was on pace for 267 carries
2011 - Mccoy on pace for 291 carries
2010 - Mcccoy on pace 221 carries
2009 - Mccoy's rookie year + Old Westbrook so let's not even count that as there seemed to be a weird split going on.
2008 - Westbrook on pace for 266 attempts.
Average is 261 carries per season with a median of 266.5 carries
261-267 seems to be the baseline for carries for Charles this season based Reid's tendencies in loving to pass the ball and how he has used his rbs in the past. Of course 290 is attainable (see Mccoy 2011) but I would call that Charles' ceiling in carries.
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If you take away Martin's two best games (even though he may have guaranteed you won both of those matchups) you still get: 1,440 yfs and 6 TD's (prorates to 1,646 yfs and 6.86 TD's over 16 games)
If you take away Charle's two best games you get: 1,231 yfc and 4 TD's (prorates to 1,406 yfs and 4.57 TD's)
Think about that. You can take away Martin's two best, and completely ignore the two games where he dominated, and his production in the remaining 14 games is still greater (both in yards and in TD's) than Charles if you take away HIS two best AND prorate the remaining average to fill in those two missing games and count all 16.
So even if you take away each RB's two best games Martin still has 209 more yfs and 2 more TD's.
Let's not forget that Charles had a huge 288 yfs 1TD game against THE worse defense ever (New Orleans) and then a 230 yfc 1TD game against Indy. That's 29% of Charle's yards from scrimmage and 33% of Charle's touchdowns in his two best games.
I think this "two great games" thing for Martin is being blown out of proportion in terms of what it means for him this year. He was a rookie last year, and even at RB the good/great ones career years are not as rookies. Those come later. And then of course there is the upgrade at the Guard position for Tampa and the fact that I, as well as others, still expect Tampa to do more scoring than Kansas City this year.
I really don't see how this "two great games" argument is such a 'killer' to Martin. Help me understand this.
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Khy
Footballguy
See, the consistency argument doesn't work quite as well for Charles. Charles 'down' games weren't due to him being bad. It was due to limited carries and any fear of that completely vanishes with Reid at the helm. So I take that with a complete grain of salt. Almost NOTHING has changed for Martin's situation. Charles has had everything change in great ways for the better. Better O Line, Better QB, better coach who will make him the lone focal point of the offense. My gut tells me that Charles may break the yards from scrimmage CJ set in the CJ2K year. I'm not projecting that obviously it'd be insane but I think he'll do it this season with a legit shot at breaking the rushing record. The guy is a freak and holds the current NFL record for career ypc at 5.8ypc over his career. Think about that for a second, Bo ####### Jackson had 5.4 on his career. The closest active player is Peterson with 5.0. This will be the first season that Charles has anything even remotely resembling a real team around him and it's going to be something incredibly special to watch.
For comparison purposes:
Martin's worse weeks (3,4,15) in touches (att/rec): 19/2, 8/2, 9/3
Charles worse weeks (2,6,15) in touches (att/rec): 6/3, 5/3, 9/3
To KHY's point, it looks like the point difference is more attributable to usage than anything else.
You don't consider 9 carries for 10 yards against Oakland bad? How about 5 rushes for 4 yards, also against Oakland? You talk about how bad Oakland's rush defense is when finding a way to make Martin destroying them seem like a bad thing, but they completely shut Charles down. 1 yard per carry is bad.
And, yes, the consistency argument does work for Charles. 29% of his YFS and 33% of his TD's game in his two best games. How is Martin's substantially different from that?
How about this...
Martin's 14 lowest scoring games: 180 standard fantasy points.
Charle's 14 lowest scoring games: 147.1 fantasy points.
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Shutout
Footballguy
All this is relative if you are trying to put it in a vacuum.
The next person might come along and say "Oh yeah? Well then, I guess if we are just talking pure numbers, then the one that really should be considered is the actual production these guys put up against common opponents".
Martin vs:
Carolina-24/95
Atl-21/50
New Orleans-9/16
Charles Vs:
Carolina-27/127
Atl-16/87
New orleans-33/233
So, does that tell us that, clearly, against the same teams, Charles blows him away?
We all know (or at least, we all should know) that every single game against every single opponent is built on its own events and circumstances. We can massage numbers all day until they support our own views and we can do it both ways. At the end of the day, I think the one piece you simply can not ignore is we know Charles can do this in a sustained manner despite terrible conditions on his team. To me, that is FAR more encouraging than a guy that has done it once and it's definitely far more encouraging considering that one of those games Martin had was against a terrible team that plays in his home town and it was clearly said during and after the game that the Bucs were trying to allow Martin to put on a show in front of his home town. Just food for thought.
So far my posts have been relative to the people who keep worrying about how Martin had two really good weeks.
It seems to me people are trying to massage numbers by going on and on about how Martin had two really big weeks. My point is...so what? Every top RB has big weeks, and if you take away the two best weeks of another player, say for example Charles in this thread's comparison, their numbers are going to come down quite a bit as well. And for the purposes of this thread, if you take the top two games away from each player, last season, Martin still easily comes out on top.
It's not like Martin was only so valuable, or only finished so much higher than Charles, simply because of those two games, and that is how people are making it sound.
I just looked at this more in depth. Talk about cherry picking stats.Touchdowns matter to us, you know. You are doing a good job massaging the numbers and cherry picking stats here, I gotta say.
Carolina: Charles, 13.8 points. Martin, 11.8 points
Atlanta: Charles, 8.7 points. Martin, 18.3 points.
New Orleans: Charles, 34.8 points (season high). Martin, 18.2 points
Add those together and you get: Charles, 57.3 points. Martin, 48.3 points.
Despite that being a mere 3 game sample (tiny), that included Charles' best game of the season, and Martin's first ever NFL game, they are still close. And the lowest point total of any of those still belongs to Charles. In fact, if you want to talk consistency, in those three games, Martin was more consistent.
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How about the same-opponent known as Oakland?
Let's add that to the above post and we get
Oakland: Charles, 3.8 points in two games. Martin, 51.2 points in one game.
Carolina: Charles, 13.8 points. Martin, 11.8 points
Atlanta: Charles, 8.7 points. Martin, 18.3 points.
New Orleans: Charles, 34.8 points (season high). Martin, 18.2 points
Add those together and you get: Charles, 61.1 points. Martin, 99.5 points.
So now we have a same-opponent comparison where Martin ####s all over Charles...and Charles has an entire extra game in this comparison!
What other stat would you like to cherry pick and massage?
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Khy
Footballguy
I understand what you're saying... 100%. The main point here that you seem to be missing is this:
Charles is a 100% proven stud and besides only Peterson is probably the most talented RB in the NFL right now. All of his amazing studness has been done on trash teams with awful coaching. Even through all of that as someone stated above he's become the Larry Fitzgerald of WRs. So he's been a Top 10 RB in fantasy every year (besides the ACL year) of his career on a Bottom 10 team ever year. This season he has a better offensive line, with a competent QB in front of him and the best coaching staff he's ever seen. The coaching staff difference is like the different between scrap metal and diamonds. There won't be games where Charles gets 5 carries in the game, it just won't happen.
Martin has proven nothing to me at this point to prove he isn't just Chris Johnson in disguise. He had ONE good season in his rookie year and everyone is jumping his jock. The stats he put up last season also FAR surpassed his expected value coming into the season. It probably surpassed what most people thought could even become his best season in his career. So yes, there is good reason for this argument and it isn't just fudging numbers to prove my point. The simple fact is if you take away those two monster games he was an average RB who would have had a good rookie season. If he had an average game during those two weeks instead of the games he said he'd probably barely be a Top 10 pick this year instead of competing for 1.01. By all intents, Alfred Morris had a better more consistent rushing season then him and is getting much less publicity and praise. A lot of people are still saying "Yeah, well Morris did it for one season lets see if he can keep it up. BUT HAVE YOU SEEN THIS MARTIN GUY?!?!". As if Martin hasn't also just had one good season.
So yeah, I'll take Charles who seems to me at least like a near lock to match Martin's production from 2012 this season. As opposed to Martin who could match it or could come back to earth and put up a above average 1200 yard 8 TD season and be the RB a lot of people thought he'd be coming into the season last year.
Martin vs Oakland: 25 carries in 1 game (25 carry average per game)
Charles vs Oakland: 14 carries in 2 games (7 carry average per game)
You're also not taking into account the type of runner Charles is... Martin is for most of his runs a grinder. He grinds out the tough yards and rarely loses yardage on a play. Charles is a homerun hitter, his game logs often look like this:
- 1
+2
- 3
+ 9
+ 40
- 5
+ 60 TD
Where as Martin's often look like this:
+ 5
+ 9
+ 1
+ 1
+ 4
+ 8
If Charles had hit even 15 carries in both of those games there's a good chance his stats would be 200 yards and 2 TDs in those two games.
silentcoach
Footballguy
It is really simple. Charles supporters prefer him over Martin because Charles has been putting up sick numbers despite being underutilized at times.
2012 - 284 rushes (good) and 49 pass attempts
2010 - 230 attempts (yuck) and 64 pass targets (better)
2009 - 203 attempts (yuck) and 60 pass targets (meh)
Ok, so what does this all tell us-- average the 3 years span and you get 234 rushing attempts BUT he averaged 1392 yards....i dont have to tell you but that is CRAZY good.
Now, receptions over the 3 years--41 rec for 340 yards with an average 58 targets during the 3 year span.
Total touchdowns was 7.5
So, what does this tell me? That even with limited touches Charles has put 1392 rushing yds, 41 rec and 340 yards with 7.5 touchdowns over a 3 year span when he has *only* averaged 234 rushing attempts and 58 pass targets.
CONCLUSION
However, NOW you have Reid. I already pointed that Reid's baseline for rbs is about around 265 rushing attempts.Over the last 3 years Reid's rbs have been on pace for 86 receiving targets with a median of 89 pass targets. Given how productive he has been with fewer touches, it is not unreasonable that Charles can be in for a monster year if Charles is used as Reid has used previous rbs AND charles is as efficient. There is always the possibility that Charles will not be as efficient, but in the aggregate will have more fantasy points simply because he is being used more then before.
Martin simply does not have the CALCULATED upside that Charles has based on the information in this post. Martin may do better, but that does not negate the best thing we can do is PREDICT.
Based on Charles' past efficiency and how Reid uses his rbs the following is the math I got by just multiplying predicted usage with the same ratio of current usage. Of course, as mentioned before, his efficiency may decrease, but this is just to show how how the numbers would look like.
Charles predicted stats with current efficiency:
1576 rushing yards 61 rec for 504 yards and 9 tds.
Not bad .
2012 - 284 rushes (good) and 49 pass attempts
2010 - 230 attempts (yuck) and 64 pass targets (better)
2009 - 203 attempts (yuck) and 60 pass targets (meh)
Ok, so what does this all tell us-- average the 3 years span and you get 234 rushing attempts BUT he averaged 1392 yards....i dont have to tell you but that is CRAZY good.
Now, receptions over the 3 years--41 rec for 340 yards with an average 58 targets during the 3 year span.
Total touchdowns was 7.5
So, what does this tell me? That even with limited touches Charles has put 1392 rushing yds, 41 rec and 340 yards with 7.5 touchdowns over a 3 year span when he has *only* averaged 234 rushing attempts and 58 pass targets.
CONCLUSION
However, NOW you have Reid. I already pointed that Reid's baseline for rbs is about around 265 rushing attempts.Over the last 3 years Reid's rbs have been on pace for 86 receiving targets with a median of 89 pass targets. Given how productive he has been with fewer touches, it is not unreasonable that Charles can be in for a monster year if Charles is used as Reid has used previous rbs AND charles is as efficient. There is always the possibility that Charles will not be as efficient, but in the aggregate will have more fantasy points simply because he is being used more then before.
Martin simply does not have the CALCULATED upside that Charles has based on the information in this post. Martin may do better, but that does not negate the best thing we can do is PREDICT.
Based on Charles' past efficiency and how Reid uses his rbs the following is the math I got by just multiplying predicted usage with the same ratio of current usage. Of course, as mentioned before, his efficiency may decrease, but this is just to show how how the numbers would look like.
Charles predicted stats with current efficiency:
1576 rushing yards 61 rec for 504 yards and 9 tds.
Not bad
.
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Shutout
Footballguy
I didn't cherry pick anything. I simply pulled the three games very quickly that I knew the Chiefs played because they are the Bucs division.
You are making MY point in all this in that, depending on what side you are on this, you can search and search until you find whatever works for you.
Even in the Oakland example, I mention the scenario surrounding that game in Oakland, playing in his home town, the concerted effort to make it a big game...you leave it out. Its no different than if I don't mention ypc and you find it adavantageous to do so.
But that's not the point. And again, the point is "most people see these guys as very similar in the rankings but only one guy has a history". Just by default, I think you go with that. Disagree? Well, you're in luck...its a free country. Adjust your board accordingly and have a good season. But if you want to learn things about ff, sometimes, you have to listen to others.
I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong. I really don't have much interest in this conversation other than to point out that one thing (mostly because they ARE so similarly ranked that I won't spend much time picking the nits between the two..I'll spend my time on other things). I'm just say consider, if you will, the other view.
the answer to this will lie in whether or not we see Reid using Charles inside the 5 yard line like he did McCoy, which I doubt. He's not as physical and too small. If he does, he is rb1.01 or 1,02. if not, he should increase his td's anyway to the low double digits which will put him right there with Martin. Toss up.
I disagree with this being a simple fact. That's the whole point of this. There's no way this is true.
Okay, let's do this. I'm going to take the top ten RB's, standard scoring from FBG (they rounded to nearest whole number) they are:
Peterson: 309
Foster: 265
Martin: 265
Lynch: 251
Morris: 246
Rice: 222
Spiller: 218
Charles: 211
Richardson: 204
Ridley: 203
Now, the two highest scoring games for each of these RB's, added together, are (no rounding)
Peterson: 63.4
Foster: 51
Martin: 84.6
Lynch: 55.8
Morris: 60.8
Rice: 44.4
Spiller: 54.4
Charles: 63.8
Richardson: 45.9
Ridley: 43.8
Now, using that, let's level the playing field. Let's re-order the top ten RB's from last season without using each of their top 2 performances.
Peterson: 245.6
Foster: 214
Lynch: 195.2
Morris: 185.2
Martin: 180.4
Rice: 177.6
Spiller: 163.6
Ridley: 159.2
Richardson: 158.1
Charles: 147.2
So there you have it. Take away each of the top ten RB's top two games and Doug Martin still finishes as RB5. As a rookie. Oh, and Charles finishes at the very bottom of this list as RB10.
It's possible he'd be even lower but I didn't look at any RB's who weren't top 10 on the season.
In what universe is RB5 an "average RB" with a "good rookie season"?? And that's to say nothing of the two weeks where Martin probably won you a matchup all by himself.
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It's really very simple. Martin finished as the #2 RB. Even if you throw out his top two games, and compare to everybody else on an even basis (see my above post) Martin still finishes #5 RB whiles Charles is in dead last place at #10 RB. And it's not even close, Charles is way back there.
You can nit pick and cherry pick all you want, but that isn't changing. For example, taking same-opponent games but completely ignoring TD's (because Martin had several more than Charles) and also completely ignoring Oakland (because Martin destroyed them and Charles failed miserably on both attempts).
I haven't yet seen ANYTHING buy-the-numbers that actually supports this supposed theory that Martin's numbers, if his two huge games hadn't been huge, would be anything less than outstanding.
In my opinion, and maybe I'm wrong, finishing as RB2 as a rookie is really damn good. And even if you toss out everybody's two best games, since those favor Martin, I think finishing RB5 as a rookie is really damn good.
And there's nothing but good news regarding Martin's prospects for 2013.
If somebody wants to argue that they think the changes to Charles' situation are so great that his prospects are actually better than Martin's, fine, go for it. Charles may very well be RB1 this year. It's completely reasonably possible. But not because Martin had an 'average season' that was propped up by two monster games.
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Ahhh yes, this is the kind of thing I'm looking for. It's much more reasonable to articular why Charles has more upside than it is to get hung up on Martin's two big games.It is really simple. Charles supporters prefer him over Martin because Charles has been putting up sick numbers despite being underutilized at times.
2012 - 284 rushes (good) and 49 pass attempts
2010 - 230 attempts (yuck) and 64 pass targets (better)
2009 - 203 attempts (yuck) and 60 pass targets (meh)
Ok, so what does this all tell us-- average the 3 years span and you get 234 rushing attempts BUT he averaged 1392 yards....i dont have to tell you but that is CRAZY good.
Now, receptions over the 3 years--41 rec for 340 yards with an average 58 targets during the 3 year span.
Total touchdowns was 7.5
So, what does this tell me? That even with limited touches Charles has put 1392 rushing yds, 41 rec and 340 yards with 7.5 touchdowns over a 3 year span when he has *only* averaged 234 rushing attempts and 58 pass targets.
CONCLUSION
However, NOW you have Reid. I already pointed that Reid's baseline for rbs is about around 265 rushing attempts.Over the last 3 years Reid's rbs have been on pace for 86 receiving targets with a median of 89 pass targets. Given how productive he has been with fewer touches, it is not unreasonable that Charles can be in for a monster year if Charles is used as Reid has used previous rbs AND charles is as efficient. There is always the possibility that Charles will not be as efficient, but in the aggregate will have more fantasy points simple because he is being used more then before.
Martin simply does not have the CALCULATED upside that Charles has based on the information in this post. Martin may do better, but that does not negate the best thing we can do is PREDICT.
Based on Charles' past efficiency and how Reid uses his rbs the following is the math I got by just multiplying predicted usage with the same ratio of current usage. Of course, as mentioned before, his efficiency may decrease, but this is just to show how how the numbers would look like.
Charles predicted stats with current efficiency:
1576 rushing yards 61 rec for 504 yards and 9 tds.
Not bad
I'm really liking my #4 pick league. I'm pretty sure I'll get one or the other of these guys and really can't go wrong.
I still think pick #5 would be awesome to have. Charles, Martin, or Calvin Johnson...you get one of the three, and come up again not very late in the 2nd.
Controller
Footballguy
Excellent points by all sides in this thread. Only thing I can add is that I was at the TB @ OAK game last year and saw Martin's big game first hand and up close. On most of his big runs, he was mostly untouched. The Raiders run defense was non-existent that day. Not trying to take anything away from Martin, just reporting what I saw.
Phenix
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, that may be one of the least informed posts I've read in a while. Martin is getting MASSIVE upgrades at the G position this year. He arguably has more of an improvement to his oline than any player in the league. Maybe Chris Johnson is on par but that's it.
silentcoach
Footballguy
Oddly enough Martin did better when the other guard went down.
I'm not saying losing Nicks was BETTER for martin, just interesting 
.If I recall correctly the Vikings game was the first one after he lost the second guard.
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silentcoach
Footballguy
The shark pool cracks me up. Sometimes I wonder if people argue just to argue. I provided numbers as to why Charles has a predicted higher ceiling than Martin and people still argue other things, such as losing guards, having revis back, etc. None of those really contradicts anything I have written. Show me numbers---show me a prediction. How do you expect his ypc to increase, do you have statistics to help? I am sure Revis and Nicks, etc will help Martin but show me numbers. And if you do, why did you choose the ypc you did or the rushing attempts you did. Or is just guessing? Guessing is fine, but anyone can do that. I predict Charles has a higher ceiling but I provided a rationale BACKED with numbers and why I used the numbers I did.
Your turn. Until then you are just arguing to argue.
Your turn. Until then you are just arguing to argue.
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fightingillini
Footballguy
Both will be solid RB1s.
To me it's very simple. Which guy has more upside? Charles. Which guy could rush for 2000 yards if given the opportunity to do so? IMO, only Charles and Peterson have a chance at 2000 yards rushing. In Andy Reid's offense, Charles is going to catch the ball a lot, so Martin isn't going to have an advantage there.
Martin will be solid, but I can't see him getting more than 1900 total yards and 12 TDs, which means I think last year was his ceiling.
I take Charles......he has a better chance to take the #1RB in FF from Peterson than Martin does.
To me it's very simple. Which guy has more upside? Charles. Which guy could rush for 2000 yards if given the opportunity to do so? IMO, only Charles and Peterson have a chance at 2000 yards rushing. In Andy Reid's offense, Charles is going to catch the ball a lot, so Martin isn't going to have an advantage there.
Martin will be solid, but I can't see him getting more than 1900 total yards and 12 TDs, which means I think last year was his ceiling.
I take Charles......he has a better chance to take the #1RB in FF from Peterson than Martin does.
I can pull numbers out of my ### as well as anyone, but pulling numbers out of your ### and multiplying them together does not a credible projection make.
I love Charles, and own him in two keeper leagues. He's my RB2 in PPR and RB3 in standard. But I think Martin is being sold waaaay short. His upside is partially based on usage patterns (look at what his coach did at Rutgers) and not having a real RB2 on the team.
I think the combo of Martin's floor and ceiling makes him RB1 in -all- formats. Yes, over Peterson.
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silentcoach
Footballguy
Exactly my point. When you just say "he has upside" you do not really prove your point on anything, the post is of no value no others--it is unfounded which is fine. Your gut is important, but you cannot convince others that way--that is all that I am pointing to. You can believe what you want (hooray USA) but when you make a post trying to show your stance and why you think a certain way, that is where numbers help.Of course the numbers can not be "out of you ###" as you so eloquently put it, the numbers, too, have to have some rationale...or else you are simply giving us an unsubstantiated opinion, which is fine, but understand that is all it is.
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Do you deny that the Buccaneer's defense is improved from 2012?
Do you deny that Freeman has >50% chance of improving in 2013?
Do you deny that Greg Schiano has a clearly defined history as being a run-first coach?
Do you deny that Doug Martin is a workhorse 3 down back?
Do you deny that the Buccaneer's offensive line should be improved from 2012?
Do you deny that Doug Martin has no credible backup?
His -floor- is 2012, which is top-5 RB. His upside is higher than 2012. I don't have a number on his upside. It's sufficient to make him #1 in my book.
silentcoach
Footballguy
None of the above unequivocally lead to your conclusion. If anything it says Martin is a SAFE pick. Saying that makes him a BETTER pick or HIGHER ceiling that Charles helps but does not make your case conclusive. How do you think those things will affect his carries, his yards per carry? What happens if Freeman is benched in front of the Rookie. We know what Charles has done when his team is AT ITS WORST. You should also assume what Martin can do at his worst....you have not. Now, assume Charles and his team at his BEST? That's right, no contest. I did not need numbers to prove that, but it sure helps when I use them
.Alex Smith is better than the QB they had last year. Reid is a better coach for Charles. Charles is a stud, etc etc. what now? exactly. Charles still rocked when he had a crappy team, what happens if/when HIS situation improves....you cannot look at players in a vacuum when COMPARING them.
I get it, you think Martin's situation has improved, but so has Charles' and I used numbers to show you HOW those numbers will increase AND why those numbers were used. You simply told me why Martin's situation improved. So what? So Did Charles' and I showed you how.
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I'm not arguing Martin's ceiling is higher than Charles'. I'm arguing that the combo of his floor and ceiling makes him a better pick in the 1st round.None of the above help your cause. If anything it says Martin is a SAFE pick. Saying that makes him a BETTER pick or HIGHER ceiling that Charles helps but does not make your case conclusive. How do you think those things will affect his carries, his yards per carry? What happens if Freeman is benched in front of the Rookie. We know whay Charles has done when his team is AT ITS WORST. You should also assume what Martin can do at his worst....you have not. Now, assume Charles at his BEST? That's right, no contest. I did not need numbers to prove that, but it sure helps when I use them
If you're going off of pure upside, you're going to have some awful fantasy teams when your 1st/2nd rounders bust.
silentcoach
Footballguy
I think Charles' floor is pretty safe too.
As pointed earlier, his floor based on last 3 year averages when he was underutilized was
1392 rushing yds, 41 rec and 340 yards with 7.5 touchdowns...that's a pretty good floor.
Martin can do better, he can do the same, or he can do worse....he is more of a question mark imo because we only have 1 year of data. But when you admit Charles; upside is high, and show you his floor, what is not to like?
Current ADP shows Martin at 3 and Charles at 4.
Both picks are good. But Martin at 3 does not seem like he is being undervalued!
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BrainDeadGenius
Footballguy
I think the main difference between the two is upside. Charles could have an Adrian Peterson-type year. I just don't feel the same about Martin. If they both reach their best-case-scenarios, I think Charles has the edge.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I still don't get why people want to take out Martin's huge 2 games. It's that very reason that he CAN PRODUCE those types of games that make him a stud RB. I don't understand that method of reasoning at all.
As for the actual comparison, I'd be wary of Reid right now. He went away from using McCoy during games often which resulted in quite a few very mediocre weeks of production. That's my only concern with him.
As for the actual comparison, I'd be wary of Reid right now. He went away from using McCoy during games often which resulted in quite a few very mediocre weeks of production. That's my only concern with him.
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fightingillini
Footballguy
Yes. Close to it.
As much as I don't like taking out high games...... you can't ignore the fact that he had 26% of his yards and half of his TDs in 2 games.....he had only 6 TDs in the other 14 games. He averaged only 4 yards a carry in the other 14 games. Now I understand that his OL gets an upgrade and Martin should do better than the 4YPC, but to exceed 1900 total yards, Martin is going to have to get at least 1500 yards rushing, which means he needs about 350 carries at 4.3YPC, a nice improvement over last season (taking out the OAK and MIN games). That would mean Martin will need 400+ touches to get there.....that's a tall order. 1700 total yards and 10 TDs seems very reasonable to me given what I saw of him last year. Makes him a solid RB1, but Charles has much more upside IMO.
IMO, the chance that Martin exceeds 1900/12 is about 15%.
fightingillini
Footballguy
So based on your logic, do you project Peterson for 2000 yards rushing? I mean, he has produced that type of season, correct?
Of course not, because Peterson's 2012 is an outlier. Just like Martin's 250 yard, 4 TD game against OAK (a defense that basically quit in that game....some of the worst run defense that I have ever seen)........that is an outlier. It's one of the best RB games in history.
No one is aguing that Martin isn't capable of producing those huge games......it's that you can't just assume that they're going to happen again....especially at the level of Martin's 2 huge games last year.
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