SSOG
Moderator
NOTE: This original post is from 2010. For more recent numbers circa 2013, jump to Post #30 by Gawain. Thank you, and please carry on.
I've been meaning for a while to do a series of posts looking at "conventional wisdom" through the prism of historical results, and with the decade coming to a close, now seemed like a good time. For those that are unfamiliar with me and my style, I tend to be one of the biggest proponents of going deeper than the counting metrics and prizing things like efficiency. I'm also a huge fan of using historical models to predict future trends, which is what this post will be all about. I say this will be a "series", but to be honest, I'm not going into this with any preconceived notions about how many entries there will be. It could be 2, it could be 20- we'll see how the offseason goes.
Anyway, I wanted to kick this thing off with a personal pet of mine- I stumbled across this juicy little tidbit a couple of years ago, mentioned it in passing, and haven't really done a whole lot with it since. During the season, I promised during the dynasty thread to revisit the numbers after the season was over, so here we go. The genesis of this investigation was to determine what sort of characteristics top 10 fantasy QBs tended to share in order to better identify up and comers.
Anyway, in the past decade, there have been 100 top-10 fantasy finishes by 36 different QBs. In order to see just how long of a learning curve there typically was among top-10 QBs, I asked three questions. First, how many top 10 finishes did that QB see in his first two seasons in the NFL (note: a regular season only counts if the QB had at least 1 pass attempt)? Second, how many top 10 finishes did that QB see in the first two seasons where he was a regular starter (regular starter, for this exercise, means at least 6 starts)? Finally, how many top 10 finishes did that QB see in the first two seasons in which he had 14 or more starts?
To give an example... let's say Jim Bob started 0 games as a rookie, 16 games as a sophomore, 2 games as a junior, and 14 games in his 4th season. Let's say he finished 70th, 10th, 28th, and 4th, respectively. The answer to the first question (how many top-10 finishes in his first two years) would be 1 (his 10th place finish in his second year). The answer to the second question (how many top 10 finishes in the two years starting when he became his team's primary starter) would be 1 (he finished 10th in his first year as a regular starter, and missed the top 10 in the year immediately after). The answer to the third question (how many top 10 finishes in his first two seasons as the prohibitive starter) would be 2 (10th place in year 2, 4th place in year 4). This is designed to measure three things- how quickly a QB started producing after being drafted, how quickly a QB started producing after winning the starting job, and how the QB produced in his first two full (or mostly full) seasons as a starter.
10x Peyton Manning-
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
7x Brett Favre
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
6x Tom Brady
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
6x Drew Brees
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
5x Donovan McNabb
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
4x Trent Green
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
4x Daunte Culpepper
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
4x Aaron Brooks
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Steve McNair
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Rich Gannon
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0 (although he did finish 11th in 11 games)
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Jeff Garcia
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Tony Romo
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Philip Rivers
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
3x Kurt Warner
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Matt Hasselbeck
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
3x Carson Palmer
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Marc Bulger
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
2x Mike Vick
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x John Kitna
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Drew Bledsoe
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Ben Roethlisberger
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Eli Manning
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
2x Aaron Rodgers
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
2x Kerry Collins
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Jake Plummer
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Matt Schaub
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Jay Cutler
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Matt Cassell
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Chad Pennington
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Derrick Anderson
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Jake Delhomme
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Kordell Stewart
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Jay Fiedler
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Elvis Grbac
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
1x Mark Brunell
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
1x Shaun King
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
Now, the totals:
Out of 36:
Number of QBs with at least one top-10 finish in their first 2 season: 16 (44.4%)
Number of QBs with at least one top-10 finish in the 2 seasons after earning the starting job: 28 (77.7%)
Number of QBs with at least one top-10 finish in their first two full seasons as a starter: 36 (100%)
Out of 100:
Number of top-10 finishes by a QB with at least 1 top-10 finish in their first 2 season: 56 (56%)
Number of top-10 finishes by a QB with at least 1 top-10 finish in the 2 seasons after earning the starting job: 81 (81%)
Number of top-10 finishes by a QB with at least 1 top-10 finish in his first two full seasons as a starter: 100 (100%)
To unpack that a little bit more, here are my thoughts on the data.
#1- Sitting for a couple of years doesn't mean anything. Over half of the top-10 QBs were not starters from day 1, including Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Steve McNair, just to name a few. As a result, the fact that he started his career as a reserve should not be held against guys like Chad Henne.
#2- Despite the fact that conventional wisdom says that no position has a steeper learning curve than QB, more than 4 out of every 5 top-10 finishes this decade went to a QB who was a top-10 fantasy QB within his first two years as a starter. Even "nobodies" like Jon Kitna, Jay Fiedler, and Shaun King managed a top 10 finish within their first two years as a starter.
#3- No QB who played two "full" seasons (14+ games) without a top-10 finish ever went on to finish in the top 10 at any point during the entire last decade. Remember- a top-10 finish isn't particularly impressive when you play a full 16 games. In any given season, you might only have 20 QBs play 14+ games (this year, only 23 QBs managed the feat), so a top 10 finish is merely "top 50%".
What does this mean going forward? Here's a brief list of QBs who fall into the various categories-
2 years in the league, no top-10 finishes (guys you don't necessarily have to worry about, based on historical data):
Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, Matt Leinart, Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, Matt Moore, Kyle Orton, Drew Stanton, Rex Grossman, Sage Rosenfels, Chad Henne, Kevin Kolb, Kellen Clemens, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jason Campbell
Guys who were named starters 2 or more years ago with no top-10 finishes yet (guys you should be mildly concerned about):
Joe Flacco, Matt Leinart, Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, David Garrard
Guys who have started 14+ games exactly once who don't yet have a top-10 finish (guys you shouldn't necessarily worry about... unless they do it again):
Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Boller, Trent Edwards, Jamarcus Russell
Guys who have started 14+ games at least twice without cracking the top 10:
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton (3 such finishes), Jason Campbell, Vince Young, David Garrard, David Carr
Now, obviously the standard disclaimers apply- just because it didn't happen once in the last decade doesn't mean it might not happen 4 times next year alone. Just because Jon Kitna's career followed a certain path, or Rich Gannon's career followed a certain path, doesn't mean that Matt Ryan's will follow the same exact path. Every single NFL player is different and should be judged on a different set of standards. With that said... I do think that this presents some major concerns about guys like Ryan and Flacco, and even 2nd-tier QBs like Young, Smith, Garrard, or Campbell. A smart dynasty owner right now should be asking exactly how much they believe in those players and perhaps checking to see what they would be able to get in exchange. Matt Ryan might still wind up turning into another Brady, Brees, or Trent Green... but I think the actual risk surrounding Ryan right now probably significantly exceeds the perceived risk.
I've been meaning for a while to do a series of posts looking at "conventional wisdom" through the prism of historical results, and with the decade coming to a close, now seemed like a good time. For those that are unfamiliar with me and my style, I tend to be one of the biggest proponents of going deeper than the counting metrics and prizing things like efficiency. I'm also a huge fan of using historical models to predict future trends, which is what this post will be all about. I say this will be a "series", but to be honest, I'm not going into this with any preconceived notions about how many entries there will be. It could be 2, it could be 20- we'll see how the offseason goes.
Anyway, I wanted to kick this thing off with a personal pet of mine- I stumbled across this juicy little tidbit a couple of years ago, mentioned it in passing, and haven't really done a whole lot with it since. During the season, I promised during the dynasty thread to revisit the numbers after the season was over, so here we go. The genesis of this investigation was to determine what sort of characteristics top 10 fantasy QBs tended to share in order to better identify up and comers.
Anyway, in the past decade, there have been 100 top-10 fantasy finishes by 36 different QBs. In order to see just how long of a learning curve there typically was among top-10 QBs, I asked three questions. First, how many top 10 finishes did that QB see in his first two seasons in the NFL (note: a regular season only counts if the QB had at least 1 pass attempt)? Second, how many top 10 finishes did that QB see in the first two seasons where he was a regular starter (regular starter, for this exercise, means at least 6 starts)? Finally, how many top 10 finishes did that QB see in the first two seasons in which he had 14 or more starts?
To give an example... let's say Jim Bob started 0 games as a rookie, 16 games as a sophomore, 2 games as a junior, and 14 games in his 4th season. Let's say he finished 70th, 10th, 28th, and 4th, respectively. The answer to the first question (how many top-10 finishes in his first two years) would be 1 (his 10th place finish in his second year). The answer to the second question (how many top 10 finishes in the two years starting when he became his team's primary starter) would be 1 (he finished 10th in his first year as a regular starter, and missed the top 10 in the year immediately after). The answer to the third question (how many top 10 finishes in his first two seasons as the prohibitive starter) would be 2 (10th place in year 2, 4th place in year 4). This is designed to measure three things- how quickly a QB started producing after being drafted, how quickly a QB started producing after winning the starting job, and how the QB produced in his first two full (or mostly full) seasons as a starter.
10x Peyton Manning-
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
7x Brett Favre
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
6x Tom Brady
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
6x Drew Brees
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
5x Donovan McNabb
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
4x Trent Green
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
4x Daunte Culpepper
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
4x Aaron Brooks
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Steve McNair
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Rich Gannon
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0 (although he did finish 11th in 11 games)
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Jeff Garcia
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Tony Romo
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Philip Rivers
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
3x Kurt Warner
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Matt Hasselbeck
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
3x Carson Palmer
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
3x Marc Bulger
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
2x Mike Vick
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x John Kitna
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Drew Bledsoe
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Ben Roethlisberger
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Eli Manning
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
2x Aaron Rodgers
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 2
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
2x Kerry Collins
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
2x Jake Plummer
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Matt Schaub
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Jay Cutler
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Matt Cassell
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Chad Pennington
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Derrick Anderson
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Jake Delhomme
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Kordell Stewart
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Jay Fiedler
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
1x Elvis Grbac
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
1x Mark Brunell
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 0
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 2
1x Shaun King
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after entering the league: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two seasons after earning the starting job: 1
Number of top-10 finishes in his first two 14+ start seasons: 1
Now, the totals:
Out of 36:
Number of QBs with at least one top-10 finish in their first 2 season: 16 (44.4%)
Number of QBs with at least one top-10 finish in the 2 seasons after earning the starting job: 28 (77.7%)
Number of QBs with at least one top-10 finish in their first two full seasons as a starter: 36 (100%)
Out of 100:
Number of top-10 finishes by a QB with at least 1 top-10 finish in their first 2 season: 56 (56%)
Number of top-10 finishes by a QB with at least 1 top-10 finish in the 2 seasons after earning the starting job: 81 (81%)
Number of top-10 finishes by a QB with at least 1 top-10 finish in his first two full seasons as a starter: 100 (100%)
To unpack that a little bit more, here are my thoughts on the data.
#1- Sitting for a couple of years doesn't mean anything. Over half of the top-10 QBs were not starters from day 1, including Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Steve McNair, just to name a few. As a result, the fact that he started his career as a reserve should not be held against guys like Chad Henne.
#2- Despite the fact that conventional wisdom says that no position has a steeper learning curve than QB, more than 4 out of every 5 top-10 finishes this decade went to a QB who was a top-10 fantasy QB within his first two years as a starter. Even "nobodies" like Jon Kitna, Jay Fiedler, and Shaun King managed a top 10 finish within their first two years as a starter.
#3- No QB who played two "full" seasons (14+ games) without a top-10 finish ever went on to finish in the top 10 at any point during the entire last decade. Remember- a top-10 finish isn't particularly impressive when you play a full 16 games. In any given season, you might only have 20 QBs play 14+ games (this year, only 23 QBs managed the feat), so a top 10 finish is merely "top 50%".
What does this mean going forward? Here's a brief list of QBs who fall into the various categories-
2 years in the league, no top-10 finishes (guys you don't necessarily have to worry about, based on historical data):
Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, Matt Leinart, Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, Matt Moore, Kyle Orton, Drew Stanton, Rex Grossman, Sage Rosenfels, Chad Henne, Kevin Kolb, Kellen Clemens, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jason Campbell
Guys who were named starters 2 or more years ago with no top-10 finishes yet (guys you should be mildly concerned about):
Joe Flacco, Matt Leinart, Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, David Garrard
Guys who have started 14+ games exactly once who don't yet have a top-10 finish (guys you shouldn't necessarily worry about... unless they do it again):
Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Boller, Trent Edwards, Jamarcus Russell
Guys who have started 14+ games at least twice without cracking the top 10:
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton (3 such finishes), Jason Campbell, Vince Young, David Garrard, David Carr
Now, obviously the standard disclaimers apply- just because it didn't happen once in the last decade doesn't mean it might not happen 4 times next year alone. Just because Jon Kitna's career followed a certain path, or Rich Gannon's career followed a certain path, doesn't mean that Matt Ryan's will follow the same exact path. Every single NFL player is different and should be judged on a different set of standards. With that said... I do think that this presents some major concerns about guys like Ryan and Flacco, and even 2nd-tier QBs like Young, Smith, Garrard, or Campbell. A smart dynasty owner right now should be asking exactly how much they believe in those players and perhaps checking to see what they would be able to get in exchange. Matt Ryan might still wind up turning into another Brady, Brees, or Trent Green... but I think the actual risk surrounding Ryan right now probably significantly exceeds the perceived risk.
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