Tau837
Footballguy
1. No, I didn't miss the "or so". If you really mean 200 carries, then say that... IMO "or so" does not imply up to 20+ more carries (more than 10% more). IMO saying "he will only need 180 or so" followed by "his ypc will be outstanding" does indeed suggest "expecting to" rather than "believing he can".2. Even now, your bolded statement seems to be saying you are confident he will average 5+ ypc for his career. If he is given a heavy workload (e.g., regularly getting 180+ carries), I don't see that happening.3. Given your Deangelo Williams example, perhaps you are just saying that at some point in his career, when the stars align for him, he may have a season where he averages 5.5 ypc on 180+ carries. I agree that possibility exists, though I think it's very unlikely that it will ever happen even once. But from your post I was led to believe you felt it would happen this season and/or throughout his career. No way IMO.4. My take on Spiller in a nutshell is as follows. First, his talent is a bit overrated by many around here. He is a good talent, but IMO to compare him to Chris Johnson or Deangelo Williams is premature... I don't see the same talent there. I'm not saying I predicted those guys would be as great as they have turned out, but that is irrelevant... we know about them now while Spiller is unproven at the NFL level. The fact is, it is very rare for a RB to turn out to be that good. Second, his opportunity is about as poor as it could possibly be. The team has issues with coaching, QB, OL, WR, and defense... and there are two other RBs currently on the roster who have proven they can carry a feature RB load in the NFL. :(Now, is that enough of a contribution to the conversation for you?Did you miss the "or so"? I think you are confusing "expecting to" and "believing he can". So, yes, I fully believe he has the ability to average 5.6 ypc. For example, as talented as DeAngelo Williams is, he's not as "explosive" as Spiller IMO and he averaged 5.5 ypc in 2008. Granted it's behind a different O-line, but I feel confident enough in Spiller's talents to say he most certainly could hit that ypc.180 carries would be on the low range of what I think he'd need to hit 1000 yards. 180-200 is the range I'd feel comfortable consistently putting him as a 1000 yard guy.Do you disagree? What is your take on Spiller? Rather than simply grabbing a stat from my post and adding nothing to the conversation, why not give your opinion? TIA.So you are expecting Spiller to average 5.6 ypc? I'll take the under.The reason I feel Spiller will be so successful is that he gets to top speed SO quickly. He will be one of those rare RBs in the league that will only need 180 or so carries to be a 1000 yard rusher. His ypc will be outstanding as he'll be 3-4 yards down the field before defenses can even react to him. And it's not that he's so much faster than even NFL defenders (even though he is). It's that he's so much faster, so suddenly. As with Chris Johnson, if he gets a crease, he'll be gone.
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