dickey moe
Fingerpicker
This is meant to be a case study for those who are interested in the implications of a "wait on WR" strategy this year. If the mods want to move it then that's cool...
I'm an owner/commish in a 7th year Keep 2 league, 12 teams, PPR, 20 rounds, WCOFF rules/scoring. I'd characterize the league as 6 really savvy owners, 4 average owners, and a couple of semi-guppies (but not idiots). RBs usually go heavy pretty early in this league, WRs are picked up in average fashion, TEs tend to go late, and QBs are all over the map.
I had the 1.03 pick this season (didn't make the playoffs last year). My keepers were Ray Rice and Rob Gronkowski. Here is how my draft transpired:
1.03 Ray Rice RB
2.10 Rob Gronkowski TE
I was hoping for an Andre Johnson/Julio Jones/AJ Green type at 3.03, and lo and behold, the following fell to me...
3.03 Jimmy Graham TE
I had to take him here, right? I can't believe he fell this far, but it wasn't impossible knowing the guys in this league. I knew this pick was going to result in me missing out on a lot of good WRs in the next two rounds (Jones, Green, Roddy White and Marshall were still available), but I just couldn't pass up the value presented here (I can start both Graham and Gronk at flex and Graham may be a good keeper candidate next season), and decided to take my chances on WR in later rounds.
So I wait patiently as the rest of the 3rd and 4th rounds see runs on 2nd tier RBs and WR 1/2. Then at 4.10...
4.10 Reggie Bush RB
He was the last of the remaining "really good" RB2s remaining (amidst the likes of Gore, Turner, Donald Brown, etc.). There were still a lot of good WRs remaining. So I snatch him up and wait for the turn to proceed to pick my first WR, when...
5.03 Matt Stafford QB
I fretted during this pick the longest of any of my picks of the draft. I knew if I picked Stafford here I would REALLY be at a disadvantage at WR compared to all the other teams in the draft. But I just couldn't pass him up here. With Stafford, I'd lock up projected top 5 players at the QB, RB, and TE position.
Then the long slog through the remainder of the 5th and 6th Rounds as my "value WR picks" got picked apart, one by one...
Bryant, DThomas, Antonio Brown, Colston, Austin...
I was praying Brandon Lloyd would fall to me, but he was snatched up at 6.07. Best WR remaining when it came around to me:
6.10 Jeremy Maclin WR
So there you go -- waiting on WR yielded me Maclin as my WR1. I'd love Maclin as a WR2 -- but a WR1? Not too much.
My next few rounds I decided to load up on WR as much as possible:
7.03 Eric Decker WR
8.10 CJ Spiller RB
9.03 Darius Heyward-Bey
10.10 Austin Collie
Rounds 10 through 20 I mostly took best value at RB and WR.
So post-draft, looks like my starting lineup will be:
QB Matt Stafford
RB Ray Rice
RB Reggie Bush
WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Eric Decker
WR Darius Heyward-Bey
TE Jimmy Graham
Off Flex Rob Gronkowski
PK Randy Bullock
Def/ST Detroit
Was the waiting on WR strategy worth it, or were the picks at Round 4 and Round 5 mistakes? I'm not thrilled about my WRs. I'm thinking about putting up Gronk/Graham and my RBs (besides Rice) as trade bait to other owners who are deep at WR but light at RB/TE to see what offers may be out there.
I'm an owner/commish in a 7th year Keep 2 league, 12 teams, PPR, 20 rounds, WCOFF rules/scoring. I'd characterize the league as 6 really savvy owners, 4 average owners, and a couple of semi-guppies (but not idiots). RBs usually go heavy pretty early in this league, WRs are picked up in average fashion, TEs tend to go late, and QBs are all over the map.
I had the 1.03 pick this season (didn't make the playoffs last year). My keepers were Ray Rice and Rob Gronkowski. Here is how my draft transpired:
1.03 Ray Rice RB
2.10 Rob Gronkowski TE
I was hoping for an Andre Johnson/Julio Jones/AJ Green type at 3.03, and lo and behold, the following fell to me...
3.03 Jimmy Graham TE
I had to take him here, right? I can't believe he fell this far, but it wasn't impossible knowing the guys in this league. I knew this pick was going to result in me missing out on a lot of good WRs in the next two rounds (Jones, Green, Roddy White and Marshall were still available), but I just couldn't pass up the value presented here (I can start both Graham and Gronk at flex and Graham may be a good keeper candidate next season), and decided to take my chances on WR in later rounds.
So I wait patiently as the rest of the 3rd and 4th rounds see runs on 2nd tier RBs and WR 1/2. Then at 4.10...
4.10 Reggie Bush RB
He was the last of the remaining "really good" RB2s remaining (amidst the likes of Gore, Turner, Donald Brown, etc.). There were still a lot of good WRs remaining. So I snatch him up and wait for the turn to proceed to pick my first WR, when...
5.03 Matt Stafford QB
I fretted during this pick the longest of any of my picks of the draft. I knew if I picked Stafford here I would REALLY be at a disadvantage at WR compared to all the other teams in the draft. But I just couldn't pass him up here. With Stafford, I'd lock up projected top 5 players at the QB, RB, and TE position.
Then the long slog through the remainder of the 5th and 6th Rounds as my "value WR picks" got picked apart, one by one...
Bryant, DThomas, Antonio Brown, Colston, Austin...
I was praying Brandon Lloyd would fall to me, but he was snatched up at 6.07. Best WR remaining when it came around to me:
6.10 Jeremy Maclin WR
So there you go -- waiting on WR yielded me Maclin as my WR1. I'd love Maclin as a WR2 -- but a WR1? Not too much.
My next few rounds I decided to load up on WR as much as possible:
7.03 Eric Decker WR
8.10 CJ Spiller RB
9.03 Darius Heyward-Bey
10.10 Austin Collie
Rounds 10 through 20 I mostly took best value at RB and WR.
So post-draft, looks like my starting lineup will be:
QB Matt Stafford
RB Ray Rice
RB Reggie Bush
WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Eric Decker
WR Darius Heyward-Bey
TE Jimmy Graham
Off Flex Rob Gronkowski
PK Randy Bullock
Def/ST Detroit
Was the waiting on WR strategy worth it, or were the picks at Round 4 and Round 5 mistakes? I'm not thrilled about my WRs. I'm thinking about putting up Gronk/Graham and my RBs (besides Rice) as trade bait to other owners who are deep at WR but light at RB/TE to see what offers may be out there.