Come on. You realize you are basing this on a three-game sample size, so fully 1/3 of the numbers are being skewed by what the Redskins did against the respective teams.These teams rank poorly in run defense, at least in part, because they faced RGIII and Alfred Morris.
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Alfred Morris, Redskins RB - Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Run It Up
- Start date
sharptongued1
Footballguy
Which might give me pause if these teams didn't look so poor against the other teams they faced thus far. It really isn't a leap to think that the Saints/Bengals/Rams will all finish in the bottom ten in run defense, no? But like I said, let's see how he looks this Sunday against Tampa, who has displayed a pretty stout run defense thus far this season.
cstu
Footballguy
After the Bucs he doesn't face another top 10 ranked run D the rest of the year. After TB would be a good time to buy if he doesn't have a great game.
sspunisher
Footballguy
Only offer I got was for Antonio Brown in a straight up redraft trade (PPR). Morris is my 3rd RB/ flex play so I'm hesitant to let him go as I have no reliable RBs for BYE weeks/injuries.. Desperately trying to turn Torrey Smith into a decent RB so I can pull this trade off. I'd say unless you're getting comparable value you should hold and you probably won't in most leagues. This owner is crazy deep at WR and just as thin at RB.
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flc735
Footballguy
i did this trade last week. i got antonio for alfred in a ppr dynasty. very happy to get rid of alfred for that price. its a lot more than i expected to get for alffy. royster was getting more pt this week and that would make me nervous if i still had him.i would suggest you sell this week. if he didn't score that TD this week, he would be coming off back to back single digit games. washington will be behind often with their crappy D and he is useless in the pass game. i think he will finish with a lot of 5-7 point games.
Clifford
Footballguy
Well, Royster hurt his knee and helu has turf toe, so I'm fine holding. Dude has three tds in three games, hasn't gotten below 70 yards despite seeing below 20 carries for two weeks, and right now at least has no competition. For where I got him, he's tremendous value and frankly I am really rooting for the guy.
I'm in the Alfred Morris club for 2012. In fact, I may start a campaign.
I'm in the Alfred Morris club for 2012. In fact, I may start a campaign.
Instinctive
Footballguy
As much as I have loved Morris, and I think he will be a solid top end RB2 the rest of the way...my team was deep at receiver, so I moved ALFMO with Nicks to get Ryan Mathews. We shall see if this bites me in the butt or not.
14 team league 1ppr. I traded A.Morris, Rothliberger, Celek and Rudolph for Hunter, Kevin Smith, Rivers, and Jimmy Graham.
I am already starting Mcfadden and McCoy so I went down at bye week fill in at RB went up at TE and about the same at QB. When behind which I think Washington will find themself in a lot I think Morris value is much lower. I am also hoping to move Kevin Smith to the Leshore owner.
I am already starting Mcfadden and McCoy so I went down at bye week fill in at RB went up at TE and about the same at QB. When behind which I think Washington will find themself in a lot I think Morris value is much lower. I am also hoping to move Kevin Smith to the Leshore owner.
rocketsauce
Footballguy
QB-confused owner currently trying to sort out a mess of Cutler & Rivers offered me Gore & Deion Branch for Alfred Morris & Andy Dalton in my 12 team PPR. With Morris currently as my RB2, I think I'm gonna take it. Not in love with Gore, but he at least keeps the job barring injury, something you just never know about Shanahan's pet project.
Dalton is expendable, as I have Rodgers & Locker as well. Was trying to sort out who to keep between Locker & Dalton.
Dalton is expendable, as I have Rodgers & Locker as well. Was trying to sort out who to keep between Locker & Dalton.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Please keep us updated.....I will wake up at 3am to check if you made any more brilliant trades
dgreen
Footballguy
As a Redskins fan, I hadn't been impressed with Morris until week 3. All preseason and the first couple weeks, we heard only about how he always falls forward. It seemed that was his only skill. But, I now think he is more than that. He doesnt just fall forward. He breaks tackles, bounces off defenders, and keeps his legs moving. He actually reminded me a little of Riggins on a few runs this week. He also seems to have really good vision because he usually finds the hole. If he only had speed.
It has been very difficult to get information on Morris. I heaed on ESPN 980 that the coaches thought Morris is decisive in cutting to the hole and has a great burst on his cut, even coming out of the cut faster than he went into it. Mike Shanahan sees a little Terrell Davis in Morris. But given what Shanahan says, that does not mean much.It has been clear since week 1 that Mike/Kyle Shanahan love Alfred Morris and everything I have seen and heard supports this.
dgreen
Footballguy
TD had some speed. He could break away from time to time. I don't think we will ever see Alfred go long distances without there being major defensive breakdowns.
Fat Nick
Footballguy
I have to agree with dgreen here...Also a Skins fan and I thought he was OK until last week. Last week, he didn't just take what was given, he ran with some conviction. I like the kid a lot. He's got good vision, and I love that he's got some patience as well. He knows to hang out behind the line and wait for the zone blocking holes to open up instead of always just taking what's there right away. The spin moves he's demonstrated have shown some real agility too, which I didn't expect. Re. the Shanahan comments...Yes, Shanahan has had a history of being unpredictable with his backs recently, but he also has a history of running a guy and turning him into a star when he finds someone he likes. Morris has had the bulk of the carries in 3 straight games. That didn't happen all of last year, and one could say that minus a very short stint with Torain, it hasn't happened since his days in Denver. At some point, people have to realize he's "the guy." If he wasn't on a Shanahan team, people would be ALL over him at this point. I guess I'm saying that I think the risk is worth it. (disclaimer, I own him, but was looking to trade him after 2 weeks, but not so much now)
Instinctive
Footballguy
Sorry, I wasn't up at 3am to try and peddle my team.However, when a thread is about a player's value and whether there's been any trading action on him, it is typically useful to post actual trades.No worries, just try to actually read a little bit next time.
With Helu now on IR and Royster Banged up. I see some receptions coming Morris's way. His lack of production in the passing game has been the only thing slightly holding him back in PPR leagues. THe injuries and the signing of Ryan Grant can only help Morris's value IMO.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I too am interested in seeing if he'll get involved in the passing game. If Royster doesn't play this weekend, I'd be shocked if the skins just threw Grant in there on all passing downs right off the street. The triple option stuff was a nice little wrinkle and it was good to see Alf as an integral part of that as well.
fatness
Footballguy
Updated: Helu is now on IR for the year. Someone mentioned a couple posts above. In addition to turf toe Helu has problems with both Achilles tendons according to what Helu said (ESPN980 report this morning).
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One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I disagree here. Royster and Helu have been hurt since camp. Morris might see some targets with Grant getting up to speed, but adding a healthy vet doesn't help Morris' value in the long run. I can't help but think most of Morris' opportunity came because his competition wasn't healthy enough to carry the load.Grant is a very capable RB and will actually fill in better than the other two gimps. Don't discount Grant's 4ypc last season too much, he was coming off major knee surgery. While I don't view Grant as an elite talent, Morris isn't either. I consider myself lucky to have drafted Morris so late and have him putting up good numbers, but let's call a spade a spade, he isn't irreplaceable. With Royster gimpy since camp and Helu out of the picture, Morris never really had competition.
I'm hardly seeing anyone picking up Grant yet, so why not stash him? It won't surprise me to see Grant play well in this scheme and take up some kind of role in the coming weeks.
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cstu
Footballguy
I still don't think Morris is going to be used in the passing game, but I believe Shanahan is sold on Morris as his starting back. Morris is 'his guy' and will be the starter unless he gets hurt or screws up. All Shanahan wants is a guy who can move the chains, block and doesn't get hurt, which Morris so far has proven he's capable of doing.
A few comments on the above posts:1. Mike Shanahan slowly incoroporated Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis into the staring lineup their rookie seasons. Neither was the primary RB until around the 5th game. Based solely on how quickly Shanahan gave the starting job and all the carries to Morris, he clearly sees something "special" in Morris. Exactly what that is isn't clear, but Shanahan is all in on Morris. I don't think Morris playing over Royster is by default. Royster has been healthy enough to play this season.2. It is highly unlikely Ryan Grant is "special" at this point. He is an aging RB who wasn't on an opening day roster. Teams know who he is and what he can do. And no one picked him up, until now.3. That said, once up to speed, the question is will Grant be a better receiver than Morris? Or Royster for that matter. That will determine Grant's role. 4. My opinion is that Morris will only be marginally involved in the passing game. If it was a strength of his, we would have seen more than one target to Morris by now. Maybe he can develop the skills more, but the Redskins haven't been looking to him as a receiver. I suspect we will see Banks catching some passes out of the backfield. Of course, Mike Shanahan probably loves keeping us all guessing what he will come up with next.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
He became the starter so quickly because nobody around him could stay healthy enough to carry the load.
chinawildman
Footballguy
This week will be the litmus test for Morris. TB is averaging a league best 2.3 YPC given up to opposing RBs. Morris will have plenty of opportunities however to show what he can/can't do. The rest of the schedule is not scary at all, so if he can run on TB, he's locked in as a solid RB2 for the long haul.
cstu
Footballguy
That is true, but Shanahan has had a thing for Morris since the Senior Bowl. This is a guy who Shanahan told he had a great game despite not having a carry at the Senior Bowl and since he was drafted he's done nothing to disappoint him. To think Ryan Grant would walk in off the street and take a Morris' job if he's healthy is ludicrous. Barring an injury Morris is going to end up with 1200/10.
chinawildman
Footballguy
What's your point? You could say the same thing about Murray or Kurt Warner. Plenty of opportunities arise when the incumbents get injured, that's the nature of the game. That shouldn't be a knock on a player. Evaluate Morris on what he's done, not how he got there.
cstu
Footballguy
TB is a no-lose situation for Morris - if he performs well then everyone will be impressed but if he has 2 YPC people will say it was TB defense. Personally I would trade for him now if you want him because a good game against TB would skyrocket his asking price.
Shutout
Footballguy
Careful what you wish for kids. Its one thing to have Morris in there and using two other guys that are clearly not healthy. It is another to bring in a guy who clearly must be healthy (passed a physical). For some teams, I would look at this as just another run-of-the-mill signing and take it for face value, but with Shanahan, I wouldn't be one bit surprised if, 2-3 weeks from now, there is a thread talking about how "that fumble" or "that bad game" has completely flipped this thing.
You guys know Shanahan. When you have a lot of unproven young guys in there, its fine, but if you suddenly see a fumble and start hearing Shanahan saying stuff like "We went with the veteran because he knows how to protect the ball..." SHEW!
You guys know Shanahan. When you have a lot of unproven young guys in there, its fine, but if you suddenly see a fumble and start hearing Shanahan saying stuff like "We went with the veteran because he knows how to protect the ball..." SHEW!
dgreen
Footballguy
If he does well, that will be a great sign. But, if his stats aren't impressive, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. If he goes 20-45-0, people should be focusing more on the fact that he carried the load rather than how poor his YPC was. The only thing that should disappoint owners is an increased workload by other RBs.
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I do know Shanahan. I have been following this situation very closely. Morris has the starting job and the bulk of the carries locked down.People who think Shanahan is one play away from switching RBs haven't looked at what he has done closely and selectively pick out data points to support their claims.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I wasn't implying that he would disappoint if he didn't post another good game. However I think there are alot of people that dismiss Morris as a plodding, 3 yards and a cloud of dust guy or that he's gotten production from playing soft defenses. A good game against Tampa would go a long way towards dispelling that notion. And as cstu mentioned, his value would rocket, especially if he displays some receiving skills with everyone else hurt.
One has some revisionist history here. Royster and Helu played in the 4th preseason game and both looked fine. There was no report on how they fared after the game. Going into the season, there was much speculation on who the starting RB would be. Even the Redskin beat reporters had no idea. Most thought Helu, despite the evidence against it. I thought Royster. Shanahan surprised with Morris, and lots of Morris. Helu played in the passing game. Royster barely saw the field.
So to say Morris is starting by default is not true. Helu was known to have on-going achilles issues but appeared healthy. Royster looked fully recovered.
My biggest concern about Morris is the OL is still weak. And if Trent Williams misses the game, it is signifantly weaker that before. A low YPC against TB may be a bigger statement on the OL than it is on Morris.
Sidewinder16
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
I tend to believe him because Griffin has become their 3rd down back. On 3rd down Griffin has 10 rushes while only throwing 3 passes to RB's.
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fatness
Footballguy
If he has a bad game against Tampa that might be the best time to trade for him.
fatness
Footballguy
This is correct, by the way.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
The only quibble I would make is "Shanahan surprised with Morris," assuming we're talking about the state of affairs as it stood between preseason week 4 and week 1 of the NFL season. There were several articles in the Washington Post hyping Morris as the likely starter that week. It's not as if it came completely out of left field.
cstu
Footballguy
Not that far off in value but in PPR I'd keep BJGE.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I would definitely rather have Morris in standard scoring. Morris has more yards and TDs, averaging 3 more fantasy points per game. Morris is averaging 4.3 ypc, BJGE is at 3.6
ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
Morris showed capable as a blocker receiver in preseason and shanny commented confirming it. I think his role would grow regardless of injuries as the season goes and they trust the rook for that more. Grant is washed up and he hasn't played on 3rd downs in years........he is the ultimate liability in that role. Jackson and Kuhn took the blocking/catching/goaline roles from grant years ago.
