This is true. I actually picked him up on the Thursday before week 1 games because of reports that he was named the starter and Shanny was enamoured with him. He hasn't looked back since. All indications are that he'll be the guy the rest of the way, and guys in my league are chirping me telling me that Grant will take him over and that Morris is a nobody. You'd think they're trying to buy low - not so - no one wants him. I'm fine with that.
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Alfred Morris, Redskins RB - Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Run It Up
- Start date
Birdie048
Footballguy
Picked up A Morris prior to Week 1, but did not play him Week 1 as I had other "sure" starters (Murray & J Charles). Traded Morris this week for Pitta.
Our league gives 0.5 ppr for RB & WR, but 1.0ppr for TE plus they get bonus at 50 yards.
So far in our scoring this season:
Pitta = 58 pts
Morris = 44 pts
I was relying on Hou TE O Daniels (38 pts ytd so far).
If Morris keeps the job, more power to him.
I expect to see more of the others spinkled in, but I believe Morris will retain 80% of the carries.... just no catches... and in my PPR leagues, that is a big factor.
Our league gives 0.5 ppr for RB & WR, but 1.0ppr for TE plus they get bonus at 50 yards.
So far in our scoring this season:
Pitta = 58 pts
Morris = 44 pts
I was relying on Hou TE O Daniels (38 pts ytd so far).
If Morris keeps the job, more power to him.
I expect to see more of the others spinkled in, but I believe Morris will retain 80% of the carries.... just no catches... and in my PPR leagues, that is a big factor.
LivingTheDream
Footballguy
Have the following trade on the table:
I give A Morris and Dez Bryant for L Fitzgerald and B Tate. Have depth at RB - Not sure about pulling the trigger.
Now Helu is on IR, and it's been 3 weeks as the starter, teams are valuing Morris as a low end RB2
I give A Morris and Dez Bryant for L Fitzgerald and B Tate. Have depth at RB - Not sure about pulling the trigger.
Now Helu is on IR, and it's been 3 weeks as the starter, teams are valuing Morris as a low end RB2
Funkley
Collar: Up
Usually when a trade is as even as I believe this one to be I stand pat.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'll chime in here because I own Morris in one league where I am trying to trade him and at the same time trying to buy him in another. It's easier to justify downplaying the guy than it is to hype him. He has little to nothing going for him in the passing game, and while his fantasy numbers look good, there is nothing that indicates he's anything better than average to subpar. He has played some terrible run Ds this year. Terrible. Only Kevin Smith and Micheal Bush have had lower YPC against these teams than Morris. The guy gets points because he gets a lot of carries. Which in itself is very valuable. I'd personally rather have a high floor guy with little boom potential than the Chris Johnsons of this league. Now the problem is that Shanny is his coach. By now its hard to picture a fantasy player who hasn't been burned by Shanny at some point in the last 5 years. Everyone is "his guy" until they aren't. It's very easy to envision Royster or Grant getting starts down the road. This is a big week for Morris as TB is best Run D he has had to face yet. Now is the time to sell, next week is the time to buy.
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Boomer1
Footballguy
Picked up Morris week 1 for $13 FAAB.
Not trusting Shanny, traded him for Chris Johnson straight up. I can afford to let CJ sit to see if he rounds back into form, if not my bad. I'm totally on the fence as to whether CJ can return to semblance of his former self, but felt it was worth the gamble.
As they say...Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained.
Not trusting Shanny, traded him for Chris Johnson straight up. I can afford to let CJ sit to see if he rounds back into form, if not my bad. I'm totally on the fence as to whether CJ can return to semblance of his former self, but felt it was worth the gamble.
As they say...Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained.
Khy
Footballguy
Honestly, if someone offered me CJ for Morris I wouldn't be able to hit decline fast enough. I just can't get over this whole "I can't trust Shanny" thing. The lack of trust in Shanahan is in my opinion on of the biggest mirages this season. People are getting such easy buy lows on Morros because people don't trust Shanahan. Morris in my opinion is a clear cut RB2 for the season baring injury. I wouldn't be trading him for anything short of a WR2 or packaging him with someone for a RB1 trade.I think the only thing keeping him from low RB1 status is that Rg3 will steal enough goal line carries to keep Morris away from a guaranteed 10+ TDs that he should have. Now he is simply an upside for that production. The yards and opportunity will be there though.
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Reepicheep
Footballguy
I can handle RGIII stealing goal-line carries, the attention he is getting from defenses is clearly benefiting Morris on the option plays.Joe Summer
Footballguy
It seems to me that CJ's ceiling is where Morris is at right now. If all you want is a guy who can produce at 85% of CJ's former numbers, then you should have kept Morris.
Khy
Footballguy
yeah, I think every Chris Johnson owner in the country right now would be running around their house naked twirling sparklers if CJ could put up like 90yds and a TD this week. That's about what you expect from Morris week to week right now CJ's floor is like 25yds on 10 carries with 0 TDs.
Carver
Footballguy
I just traded Micheal Bush for him. This dude is staying on my roster until he gets hurt. I LOVE the way he runs the ball. the T.D comparisons may be a bit (or a lot) of a reach... but this kid runs hard and stays on the field. Shanny is going to stick with him. he has a pitbull lock on that bellcow role.
cstu
Footballguy
Johnson started out like this last year and ended up with a decent year. In PPR I'd much rather have Johnson, although it's much closer in non-PPR.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Last year, Johnson averaged 6.3 fantasy points the first 3 games, then averaged 11.7 PPG the rest of the way.This year, Johnson averaged 3.6 fantasy points the first 3 games. Meanwhile, Morris has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game.
Even if Morris' production drops by 20%, he will still score more points than Chris Johnson did from weeks 4-17 last year.
Khy
Footballguy
Pretty much, everyone keeps saying "Johnson started like this last year". I don't agree with that at all, Johnson started 'slow' last year, that's certain. He definitely did nothing good until week 4 of last season. That said, he at least didn't have games where he averaged 0.4ypc. Last year he also had an excuse to the tune of "well, he's just getting a slow start to get back into football shape". That excuse isn't there this year, maybe it's possible that Chris Johnson is just bad, a guy who had 1 amazing year and 2 decent years and now is simply slipping in production and will never get back to that spot he used to be. Similar to a Larry Johnson type. Larry Johnson did this same stuff, was the one of the best RBs in the league for 2 years in a row. Then he got his big contract and that was that his career was over.I think that is more what is happening to Chris Johnson.
Boomer1
Footballguy
Well as I stated, it was a risk, but a risk I'm willing to take with everything taken into consideration. The biggest factor being, I don't need CJ to start just like Morris was sitting, CJ can do the same behind DMC and Murray.
We'll see in the next 4-6 weeks if it was the right move. Hopefully I'll have reason to bump this thread.
We'll see in the next 4-6 weeks if it was the right move. Hopefully I'll have reason to bump this thread.
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LivingTheDream
Footballguy
Traded Morris and Dez for Fitzgerald and Amendola . 5 ppr league.
Love Morris and think he'll be the starter all year. Schedule gets tough and Redskins will be playing from behind quite a bit...
Love Morris and think he'll be the starter all year. Schedule gets tough and Redskins will be playing from behind quite a bit...
cstu
Footballguy
It looks like you are using non-PPR numbers, which I said make it close.Johnson averaged 15 PPG in PPR from weeks 4-17 in 2011. That's a tad higher than what Morris has averaged in PPR (14.8 PPG) so far.'Joe Summer said:
Of course Johnson has played worse so far this year but it's 20 points compared to 32 in 2011 after three games.
chinawildman
Footballguy
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/redskins-watch/2012/sep/28/coaches-film-breakdown-alfred-morris-affecting-jor/
The good new is that it sounds like Morris IS involved in passing sets and it's good reading that he was the first read for RG3 on this film breakdown. The bad news is that he screwed up the protection on this play and caused a sack.
The good new is that it sounds like Morris IS involved in passing sets and it's good reading that he was the first read for RG3 on this film breakdown. The bad news is that he screwed up the protection on this play and caused a sack.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Fantastic. Thanks.
Steel Dillo
Footballguy
Made me chuckle.
It's almost like he had a camera set up in my house....
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Has anyone been paying attention to his snap count?
Alfred Morris
Week 1 - 71%
Week 2 - 52%
Week 3 - 49%
Evan Royster
Week 1 - 4%
Week 2 - 25%
Week 3 - 25%
Roy Helu
Week 1 - 25%
Week 2 - 10%
Week 3 - 25%
Alfred Morris
Week 1 - 71%
Week 2 - 52%
Week 3 - 49%
Evan Royster
Week 1 - 4%
Week 2 - 25%
Week 3 - 25%
Roy Helu
Week 1 - 25%
Week 2 - 10%
Week 3 - 25%
Mile High
Footballguy
chinawildman
Footballguy
Did you make that up? That would mean there was a Washington RB in on every single play of the game, which I highly doubt.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Not much at all, but it does correlate with WAS playing catch up. Also, production usually catches up with snap count (or a lack there of). This is why many believe Hawkins will need to see a bump in snaps in order for the production to be sustainable. Of course, I do realize it's harder to get a WR reps, but field time is field time. To put it into perspective, no RB who is the blatant starter, aside from Turner, D. Williams and D.Brown have seen less of the field than Morris. I wouldn't want to be in that company.
Sea Duck
Footballguy
Hint: there can be more than one RB on the field at the same time.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
You have the same access to this information as I do, check it out. I don't make #### up, especially not hard data.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
Percentage of snaps for each when a RB is on the field?
Mile High
Footballguy
At the beginning of the 3rd when Washington was down and then got back into the game is was pretty much Morris and RG3. Later in the game when then again feel behind they did pass more as time was running out. It will depend on the game.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Apologies, I was going off of this, but I guess they must have missed Helu. http://www.hogshaven.com/2012/9/26/3411054/redskins-snap-count-totals-vs-bengals-week-3
chinawildman
Footballguy
SSD, it seems you're intent on proving you're right about this sell Morris thing.
But the fact is his week 1 is an aberration. Nobody should be EXPECTING their RB to get 28 carries. Morris getting around 50-60% of the snaps is about what I would expect for an average game. They've been in catch up mode for the past 2 weeks so it's no surprise to me that his snap count has been lower than normal.
However Morris dominates the percentage of touches for redskins RBs. Whether he's in there to block on a 3rd and long is immaterial FF-wise.
But the fact is his week 1 is an aberration. Nobody should be EXPECTING their RB to get 28 carries. Morris getting around 50-60% of the snaps is about what I would expect for an average game. They've been in catch up mode for the past 2 weeks so it's no surprise to me that his snap count has been lower than normal.
However Morris dominates the percentage of touches for redskins RBs. Whether he's in there to block on a 3rd and long is immaterial FF-wise.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah, I still advocate selling Morris, if you can get a decent return of course. I'm not saying to trade him for Chris Johnson. The thing is, he can dominate the touches in the backfield, but it's all relative. If week 1 was an aberration, and 16-17 total touches is him "dominating" touches, what happens when he doesn't average 4.2+ YPC? He cannot buoy his stats with receptions. So far he's faced three very burnable rush defenses, one being the absolute worst in the league. In his next nine games, he faces six defense who are ranked in the top 10 of fantasy points allowed to RBs. Why not sell high? I don't want to be "right" or "wrong" here, I'm just trying to relay what I'm seeing in the stats. I have no horse in this race and could care less what people choose to do in the end.
drfeelgood
Footballguy
I think you care. You have posted 17 times in this thread.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I post a #### ton a day. I care about fantasy football in general, much like everyone else here. But no, I don't personally care if someone chooses to keep or sell Morris haha.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Oof.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
If you discount the first game which some may label a statistical aberration, he was ranked 23rd in overall utilization (carries plus targets) in week 2, 20th in week 3. If you want to compare his utilization to the rest of the league, it's only fair to incorporate targets in the passing game. This is a passing league afterall where many of the featured RBs on their respective teams are heavily involved on the ground and in the air.
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chinawildman
Footballguy
If the redskins can't run the ball, I suspect they will change their play calling. Similar to how they employed the triple option last week. Perhaps they will even throw it to Morris, something you don't think will happen. But since the skins have yet to struggle to run the ball, neither of us know what will happen. THe glass can be half full or empty.As for the rest of his schedule, outside of Tampa(this week), Minnesota(week 6), and Baltimore (week 13) there's not a single team for the rest of the way that currently ranks in the top 10 in YPC allowed which I consider a more reliable stat this early in the season than FF pts allowed (which is heavily TD driven)
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Unless I'm mistaken NYG is ranked 10th with 94 YPG. MIN is actually ranked 13th but is only allowing 3.4 YPC thus far. There's still a bit of time, but at the very least, outside of three more match-ups (ATL, CAR, CLE in that order) he doesn't seem to face anyone as bad as NO, CIN and STL. The NFC East, although not extremely stout defensively, boasts a much bigger challenge to ALMO than who he's faced so far and he still has to play each team twice over.
This may be unwarranted optimism (both for Morris's value and for RG3's health) but I expect Washington to decrease their reliance on RG3 running the ball as the season progresses: fewer option plays, more pitches. He's getting beat up. I still expect him to be used heavily in the red zone.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Again, YPG is not the same as YPC... Just because a team doesn't try to run the ball against another team, doesn't mean their run defense is great, it could just mean their pass defense is really bad. Another factor you need to consider is that the guy taking the most FF potential from Morris is not any of the other RBs. It's RG3. He is the second leading rusher on the skins with about 10 carries a game. I doubt Shanahan will want to keep up the pace at which RG3 is taking hits. Those carries will be going to somebody, most likely Morris.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
My mistake, I thought you were using YPG with the three teams you listed which is why I said "MIN is actually ranked", didn't realize it was YPC. Still DAL, NYG and PHI are allowing around 4.0 YPC each while STL (4.5), CIN (5.8) and NO (5.0) are noticeably much much worse.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I just don't think stats are as relevant this early in the season due to the low sample size. The redskins are the #2 rushing team in the league. While it's fair to say that they've achieve that standing by playing swiss cheese defenses, it's just as logical to deduce that those defenses are considered weaker because they had to play the redskins. It's too early to conclude one way or the other (although I will agree that the saints run defense is a mess)Will Morris's efficiency slow down a bit? Probably. But the scenario that you outlined in earlier posts suggesting that they will abandon Morris when they get down big has already been proven untrue in the week 3 game against Cincy when they were down 17 in the first half. Morris will get his touches, and there has been nothing to suggest otherwise thus far.
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