One More Rep
Footballguy
Charles and Nicks
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2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
Team A with a good lesson on "how not to rebuild"
doowain
Footballguy
Explain please. I could take that statement a couple different ways.
It looks like he is rebuilding, in that he is trading established players for early draft picks. In reality, Charles and Nicks are both young enough to be the guys you want to build *around*.
Brandon Will
Footballguy
Just traded Cobb and DX for DMAC, and Cecil Shorts. Needed a #2 RB and I got a hell of a high risk/reward of one! lol I would have NEVER done the Cobb trade for Hilton if I was his owner. I got some damn good offers
Brandon Will
Footballguy
Just traded Cobb and DX for DMAC, and Cecil Shorts. Needed a #2 RB and I got a hell of a high risk/reward of one! lol I would have NEVER done the Cobb trade for Hilton if I was his owner. I got some damn good offers
garlicduck
Footballguy
12 team PPRGave up Gordon, Josh CLE WR;Hilton, T.Y. IND WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08Got Morris, Alfred WAS RB; Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.12This trade goes against what I normally do in that I gave up 2 potental studs WRs (really hated giving up Gordon) but felt my team was a quality RB from being a top contender, believe Morris is the real deal and had depth at WR.Team after trade:QBs: Rodgers, Luck, BradfordRBs: Morris, Gore, Reggie Bush, DeAngelo, Daniel thomas, Donald Brown etcWRs: Demaryius Thomas, Harvin, Cobb, Miles Austin, Garcon, Broyles, A. HawkinsTE: Daniels, HouslerI gave up the first round pick but have 3 picks in 2nd round.
Team A needs to be arrested and Team B needs to see a doctor to find a cure for that rookie fever! Even if Nicks wasn't involved and it was Charles only, I think I'd lean towards taking the sure thing stud unless I REALLY liked 3 guys coming out this year.I like Kenny B, but...
Fruitbat
Footballguy
12 team non-PPRteam A gets:Vincent Jackson WRStephen Gostkowski KAlfred Morris RB2013 Draft, Rnd 6 2014 Draft, Rnd 62015 Draft, Rnd 52016 Draft, Rnd 52017 Draft, Rnd 5team B gets: Rob Bironas K2013 Draft, Rnd 22014 Draft, Rnd 22015 Draft, Rnd 12016 Draft, Rnd 12017 Draft, Rnd 1
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Odd trade. Not sure why you give up two notable starters for future crapshoots (esp so far into the future). Team B has blinders on.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Thought this one was interesting...Team A: RoethlisbergerTeam B: Rookie pick ~25
coolnerd
Footballguy
Not sure why fantasy league would allow trades so far into the future. Bad enough with teams trading picks only couple of years ahead.
I dont mind this trade at all but than I am not that big on Charles like most are. In a year or 2, you might be lucky to get a 1st rounder. I like Nicks more myself than Britt but they both have talent. One cant stay healthy and the other is headcase. Neither have really lived up to the potentialNow he might have got more but who knows what offers he got for Charles. I know I would be looking to trade him also.
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Jackson was probably worth of all this by himself since so far out. Team A got studs for nothing basically. I think he could turn around and trade Jackson for 2013, 2014 and 2015 1st and be well ahead of the game here. Agreed on crazy to let a team trade this far out. Hope he has paid his fees but in this case how could he refuse such a deal.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Trading for picks 4 season's away, wow?
One More Rep
Footballguy
I prefer the wrs and the pick, but if Morris is close to what he did this year you definitely have a god shot next year
One More Rep
Footballguy
Rice side
squistion
Footballguy
It is must be a free league or they don't require dues for future years be paid when trading picks. In any event, good luck finding a replacement if Team A bails in a year or two.
Fruitbat
Footballguy
Fellas, please relax on the whole "Team A is going to bail", "better collect his fees" talk. This is a dynasty league entering its 20th season. some of us have known each other since kindergarten, and we are old enough that one owner has a kid graduating from high school this year. we started with 8 teams, now have 12, and we have only had 2 owners ever leave, and those were for personal reasons. I fully expect this league to go until the NFL folds, or too many of us are dead/senile to continue. and in the latter case, our kids may take over.I wont debate the value of Jackson, but I highly doubt Jackson goes for 3 first round picks in our league. I think the most firsts a player has ever traded for was 4 firsts for Emmitt, and he was in his late prime at the time. Jackson is a 30 year old WR whose TD high has been something is 9 in his career.I think the more debatable point here is Morris, and how much you trust him to continue his production.More context: Team A already has B Marshall, Crabtree, and Bowe (start 3)....and was missing a lot of draft picks in the upcoming drafts due to prior trades.Disclaimer: neither team is mineETA: I do think that 1st round picks are overvalued in our league in general. But I can understand the reasoning... if you trade away multiple firsts for a player who ends up regressing/hurt/etc, you've put yourself in a big hole to recover.
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Fruitbat
Footballguy
Supply and Demand is not in favor of teams trying to trade QBs in a 12 team league, wouldnt you agree?Also see my above post...this league is never going to die, so no worries that 2016 never comes. But I do agree there is some time devaluation for a 1st that far out.
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The Clamface
Footballguy
12 man PPR leagueGave:Ty Hilton Mike Williams (Tampa)Received:Hakeem Nicks
Best player wins.
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
team A gives Josh GordonTeam B gives 1.06
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
This one is REAL terrible, my god. Pretty clear Nicks is head and shoulders above Britt, not even close in value.Picks 2 and 3 for Charles is a total ripoff.Put them together in the same deal and you have one of the worst deals I have seen. Even in a a strong draft class this is bad.
SSOG
Moderator
In a strong draft, that trade is a slam dunk for the guy getting the picks. Here are all the guys in consideration for a top-3 rookie pick over the last half-dozen or so years:2012- Richardson, Martin, Luck, Griffin2011- Ingram, Green, Julio2010- Mathews, Dez, Spiller, Best2009- Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Brown, Harvin, Crabtree2008- McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Forte2007- Peterson, Calvin, LynchA package of two top-3 picks is clearly and unequivocally better than a 26-year-old Jamaal Charles in 2012, 2011, and 2007 (i.e. no matter which of the consensus top guys you took, you came out ahead). In 2010, the picks would have almost certainly been more valuable (only exception is if you went Mathews/Best, but since Mathews was usually going #1 overall, you were almost guaranteed to get either of Dez or Spiller, and possibly both). In 2009, if you'd landed either McCoy or Harvin, you'd wind up coming out ahead... but the odds were about 50/50, since you'd almost certainly take whichever of Beanie/Moreno didn't go #1, and then you'd have a 50/50 shot at McCoy or Brown with the #3. Ironically enough, the only draft where two top-3 picks probably wouldn't have turned out as valuable as a 26yo Charles is 2008. It's ironic because I have never seen a rookie draft so deep or stacked with difference makers (including Jamaal Charles himself, natch). Still, you didn't see Rice or Chris Johnson cracking the top 3 very often. So, to recap, in 3 of the last 6 drafts the picks would have been absolutely guaranteed to destroy Charles in value. In one more, the picks almost certainly would have topped Charles. In another, you'd have a 50/50 chance of rolling snake eyes, and the last one would guarantee you quality pieces, but leave you extremely unlikely to generate more value than Charles. In an ordinary draft, that offer absolutely would have been more than fair for Charles and Nicks. It's just unfortunate for the guy selling Charles that this is not an ordinary draft.
One More Rep
Footballguy
I like Gordon here
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ALmost every guy you listed would be the #1 pick in this draft if they were in it. Unfortunately, they are not.
I come to the same conclusion for the most part, but from a different perspective. Rather than viewing from the performances of the players in hindsight, I would prefer to evaluate the trade using the value of the picks themselves just before the time they were made. Comparing Charles to the picks using hindsight on the actual player’s performances results in the valuing of the 1.2 pick in 2010 (Dez), for example, as being more valuable than the 1.1 (Mathews), when clearly the 1.1 is always more valuable than the 1.2. Same goes for your analysis of 2008 where you are valuing the 1.3 (50/50 shot on McCoy - note, I think the consensus 1.3 was Crabtree) over the 1.1 (Moreno). Using this line of analysis, one would conclude that the an offer of 1.1 in 2008 for today’s Mikel Leshoure would not have been a good offer simply because Moreno busted (when clearly the 1.1 in any year is much more valuable than Leshoure), while an offer of 1.3 for Leshoure would have been gold. Or, in 2008, a trade of 1.8 for Charles and Nicks (which would have been an absurd trade) could be justified because you could have ended up with Ray Rice or Chris Johnson.Also, comparing those players performances in hindsight vs a 26 year old Charles does not take into account the fact that we don’t know yet what a 26 year old Charles will do in hindsight. Anyway, I prefer to look at the value of the picks based on the value of the players that were available at the time, rather than the value of the picks based on the subsequent performance of such players. Last year, the 1.2 became extremely valuable in most leagues due to Martin ending up in a good situation. The 1.2 alone last year would arguably be worth close to a 26 year old Charles. Even with somewhat of a dropoff to 1.3 (a choice between Wilson, Luck, RG3 in most leagues), the 1.3 last year still carried very good value where a 1.2 and 1.3 together would easily outvalue Charles.In 2010, all 3 of the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 were hot properties (Mathews, Dez, Spiller). Mathews himself was getting drafted late 1st, early 2nd in startups. This is about where Charles is slotted as a 26 year old. Same went for Dez – late 1st early 2nd. Spiller held pretty good value as well. In 2010, the 1.2 = Charles today, 1.3 > Nicks today. Easy call that year, I’d take the picks. In 2009, the top 5 picks carried excellent value (Beanie, Moreno, Crabtree, Brown, McCoy) from what I recall. The 1.2 and 1.3 would have easily outvalued Charles. In 2008, again, not looking at performances in hindsight, the top 3 picks carried immense value (based on the availability of Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall and Jon Stewart). The top 3 picks that year were arguably more valuable than any year since then. I would have been ecstatic to get the 1.2 and 1.3 that year for a 26 year old Charles. Basically, for all drafts since 2008 (save the current one), I would have preferred having the 1.2 and 1.3 over a 26 year old Charles.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
yeah this year it isn't close in terms of value. Charles easily over picks 2 and 3................then the Nicks of over Britt value is pretty big.
Understand, and right now, I tend to agree with you regarding this year's draft (could, maybe even likely, change post NFL draft), but we are addressing your comment that "[e]ven in a strong draft class, this is bad".
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
It is. Don't forget the Nicks over Britt part of this. At least in a strong Class I can understand doing it, but still no way I would. Sure if you wanna go back and look at the last 5-6 draft classes and pick and choose the top guys. Unfortunately, you can't do that. And you may as well take out guys like Richardson, Peterson, and at least one out of Green and Julio (people taking Ingram that year at 1 were insane).The Wells, Moreno's, Bests, and may others even in "good draft classes" turn me off when I know what I have in Charles and Nicks, and I know I like what they are going to do (likely).In this particular class, if you take the top talent and put them on any team you want, still this deal is horrid.Heading into this offseason in a league I had picks 1,2,3,4,5,6,7. I had ZERO chance of getting Charles and Nicks with these picks, let alone just picks 2 and 3. Apparently I am in a league of smart owners. I picked the WRONG year to have a ton of 1st rounders, already sold half of them for 2014 1sts
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes and no. I think the upper level QBs should still be in high demand, and personally I rank Kaep rather highly. In a year or two Manning, Brady and perhaps even Brees will be at the end of the line making the QB pool a little shallower.I guess I just don't have the patience to be making trades where the key pieces aren't even a consideration until 4 years down the road. I also think it's fairly tough to value picks that far down the road - who knows if the team will be good or bad).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's looking like Hilton is becoming a little overvalued. He had a very good rookie season, but I could see his production being rather volitile based on his skill set. He's a nice piece as depth imo, but it seems there are teams that are looking to rely on him heavily going forward.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In hindsight, it's easy to say that, but Ingram likely went No. 1 in more leagues than he didn't.
SSOG
Moderator
If you played in a league with "smart owners", how'd you wind up with the top 7 picks? If you're in a league with smart owners, why are they so quick to sell 2014 firsts for 2013 firsts? If you're in a league with smart owners, why wouldn't they trade Charles/Nicks for the top 7 picks? If I was rebuilding, I'd do that in a heartbeat. Hell, even if I wasn't rebuilding, I still might do that- there hasn't been any class I can remember that hasn't produced at least two major studs in the top 7 picks (hell, it's rare to see one that hasn't produced at least three)- and there's plenty of potential this year in guys like Lacy, Patterson, Bernard, Ertz, Allen, etc. If you had the roster space to draft and hold (admittedly, a big if), those seven picks would almost certainly outperform Charles/Nicks going forward, making it a slam dunk for any shallow squad looking to add instant depth or rebuilding squad looking for instant relevance. A double slam dunk when you remember that those picks are only going to rise in value as we get closer to the draft and they start to get some names attached. Again, I think back to the last "weak draft" we had- the Moreno/Wells draft. Well, that year also gave us McCoy, Harvin, Crabtree, and Nicks among the top picks. It looks to me like you're just playing in a league with owners who ludicrously undervalue rookie firsts. But to address your main criticism, I'm not "picking and choosing players", I'm giving you a complete list of guys viewed as "top tier" by the time the draft rolled around. If I were picking and choosing, I would have left the Bests and the Ingrams off the list. I'm saying, go ahead and leave those busts on the list... but pretend you could put all of those names in a bag and pull out two randomly. Would you trade Charles and Nicks for those two names and Britt? I sure as hell would. Of the 24 names, only 5 were outright busts (Moreno, Wells, Brown, Ingram, Best), with another 5 as startable-but-disappointing (Mathews, Crabtree, Stewart, Mendenhall, McFadden), and the remaining 14 as home run, first-2-rounds-of-a-startup type value. As such, here are the percentages on each outcome:Bust/Bust (e.g. Wells/Best): 3.6%Starter/Bust (e.g. Crabtree/Moreno): 9.1%Two Starters (e.g. Stewart/Mendenhall): 3.6%Stud/Bust (e.g. Richardson/Brown): 25.3%Stud/Starter (e.g. Luck/McFadden): 25.3%Stud/Stud (e.g. Green/Martin): 34.0%You'd only have a 16.3% chance of failing to wind up with at least one player the quality of Jamaal Charles (but several years younger). On the other hand, you'd have a 1-in-3 chance of winding up with two guys as valuable as Jamaal Charles but with twice the career left ahead of them. Saying you wouldn't trade the 1.02/1.03 for Charles/Nicks in this particular year is understandable, but suggesting that it doesn't make sense even in the best of years is indefensible. Top-3 rookie picks have historically been insanely valuable. I'm open to the possibility that this year will be the exception, but I'm not open to the possibility that that exception might soon become the rule.
Fruitbat
Footballguy
Yep you make good points. Thanks for the input. I rank Kaep pretty high as well, but there is still no guarantee he will produce consistently at this level for years to come, either. A player is only worth what the market says he's worth. Too many teams have either one of those aging QBs (Manning, Brady, Brees), Rogers, an up and coming star (RGIII, Luck, Wilson, Cam), or one of the other potentially solid starters (Stafford, Ben, Eli, Dalton, Romo). Some teams have 2 of them. Kaep is probably a clear upgrade for some of those, but the price is pretty steep to gain that little edge. Owners would rather spend those resources (picks) and go after RBs and WRs.
Full disclosure: I was the Kaep owner that traded him away. Was really hard to do, but I have Luck (plus Freeman/Locker/Tannehill/Gabbart), and this was the best offer I could get. My decision came down to cashing in the chips now while I was ahead, or holding him...and I decided to cash in now. Gives me some more ammo (picks) to go after RB or WR....or just wait it out and have extra firsts in those drafts. Like I've mentioned this is a long standing league with close friends so the cost of waiting that many years feels less to me than it probably does for others.
Fruitbat
Footballguy
yep I fell victim to the hype on a team that was in serious rebuild mode and had NO RBs to speak of. I had my board as 1) AJ 2) Julio 3) Ingram up until the NFL draft. Then I flipped it around, ended up taking Ingram #1. oops. Had I taken AJ I'd be in much better shape right now.
beef
Footballguy
Hilton and Nicks are both overrated. Mike Williams numbers arent far off from Nicks. But no one is more overrated than Shorts right now. He's is silver selling at gold prices.
beef
Footballguy
Gordon easy.
beef
Footballguy
Charles alone is worth that.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Crabtree and Wallace side
The Comedian
Footballguy
12 team PPR, heavy IDP scoring:
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
14 Dynasty LeaguepprStart 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FL(RB or WR)Team A gives B. Tate / J. Maclin / AJ GreenTeam B gives Spiller / Crabtree / 3.05Not me.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
FFPC DynastyGive McCoy / 2014 fourth rd pickReceive Spiller / HillmanRBs now: Spiller, FJax, SJax, Leshoure, Hillman
cstu
Footballguy
Last year it would have been Blackmon and Martin - both of which are going ahead of Charles and Hicks in startups.
