Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I think it's because he's slow and altogether below average.From all reports, Allen looks slow and altogether below average.
I think it's because he's slow and altogether below average.From all reports, Allen looks slow and altogether below average.
Who in the hell is "Rob Pitzer" and why is his blog credible?I think it's because he's slow and altogether below average.From all reports, Allen looks slow and altogether below average.
Who in the hell is "Rob Pitzer" and why is his blog credible?I think it's because he's slow and altogether below average.From all reports, Allen looks slow and altogether below average.
EDIT: 2011, pre-draft statement about AJ Green and Julio Jones:
"Having said all that, I still feel an obligation to make a concrete call. So while I can't quite rule Green or Jones out, I still wouldn't take them at the top of the first round. There were lower risk guys available and I think it's unlikely that either of them turns into the kind of WR that dramatically improves their team."
I've spent more time on these two WR prospects than the rest of the draft combined. I hate that there are two 'can't miss' prospects that don't have good historical comps.
Figuring out why I was wrong about them has really helped move things forward in terms of understanding the role of exceptional explosion, and also what to make of tall, thin WRs (like Danario Alexander and Marlon Brown).One of the benefits of doing what I'm trying to do is that most of the time there's little or no subjectivity to it: either a player qualifies or he doesn't. But as I mentioned in my first post there are times when there just isn't enough data yet to make a confident prediction.
Honestly wasn't my intent to cherry-pick failures, and until now I wasn't aware that the blog you linked to was in fact yours. I actually went back to your 2011 archive (first few posts ever in the blog) as I hoped it would explain who Rob Pitzer was so that I could get some insight. I then realized that you/Rob Pitzer was at least dedicated to football analysis, so then my next goal was to see how right you were with past predictions. At that point, knowing how Jones/Green turned out, I clicked that link and got that paragraph. It was all I needed to see.Who in the hell is "Rob Pitzer" and why is his blog credible?I think it's because he's slow and altogether below average.From all reports, Allen looks slow and altogether below average.
EDIT: 2011, pre-draft statement about AJ Green and Julio Jones:
"Having said all that, I still feel an obligation to make a concrete call. So while I can't quite rule Green or Jones out, I still wouldn't take them at the top of the first round. There were lower risk guys available and I think it's unlikely that either of them turns into the kind of WR that dramatically improves their team."
How I'm doing this is out there for everyone to see. And I explained at length why I struggled with those two players. There just weren't many good comps to go on. Or I wasn't sure who to consider a comp in the first place.
I've spent more time on these two WR prospects than the rest of the draft combined. I hate that there are two 'can't miss' prospects that don't have good historical comps.Figuring out why I was wrong about them has really helped move things forward in terms of understanding the role of exceptional explosion, and also what to make of tall, thin WRs (like Danario Alexander and Marlon Brown).One of the benefits of doing what I'm trying to do is that most of the time there's little or no subjectivity to it: either a player qualifies or he doesn't. But as I mentioned in my first post there are times when there just isn't enough data yet to make a confident prediction.
I know some people will cherry-pick the failures, or the remaining holes in these models (there are some) -- but I think if you look at this year's results things are looking pretty damn good. Partly because when I'm wrong about something I look to see if there have been other places where I was wrong for the same reasons and try to learn from it.
Rookie WR Keenan Allen was active for San Diego's Monday loss to the Texans, but didn't play a snap.
Malcom Floyd, Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown were all credited with "starts" as the Bolts opened in a three-wide set, and were the only receivers to draw targets. Allen caught just six passes for 48 yards in the preseason. The third-round pick is well off the re-draft radar.
You guys are all talking about dynasty right? Or are people actually getting excited about a rookie receiver with 3 NFL targets in redraft?
Dammit. There goes my plan to snag Floyd for free a week or two before his return. I already dropped VBrown and am not particularly excited to pick him up again. I'm not all that excited about Allen either, but it wouldn't matter even if I was...he'll go to someone with a higher waiver priority this week. I was eyeing San Diego vs. Washington in Week 9 as my bye-week fill-in game all season, but I'm starting to think the SD wide receiver situation is fool's gold. Of Rivers' 401 yards and 3TDs this past week, 163 yards and 0 TDs were split between his 3 WRs.Per Rotoworld:
Malcom Floyd | Wide Receiver
Team: San Diego Chargers Age / DOB: (32) / 9/8/1981 Ht / Wt: 6'5' / 225 College: Wyoming Contract: view contract details Share:
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Chargers placed WR Malcom Floyd on injured reserve with a neck injury, ending his season.
Floyd went down in Week 2, and suffered a knee scare in the preseason. In between was his 32nd birthday. Translation, Floyd is no guarantee to be back with the Bolts in 2014 even though he's due $5.75 million through 2015. He's out of guaranteed money after this season. A one-dimensional deep threat, Floyd has never caught more than 56 passes in a season, and has long had durability issues. Oct 1 - 5:50 PM
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Royal is in his sixth year in the league and has never had a good season or led his team in any receiving category. He's a poor man's Danny Amendola. He also has received just 5 targets in the past two weeks.As someone who doesn't see many Chargers games, I am curious as to why most think that Allen will be the WR to emerge from the pack rather than Brown? Or even Royal for that matter.
Thanks for the update.Oof....I traded Allen away a few weeks ago.
He might draw more coverage because he's had a good game now, but Floyd was out for this week's game too.Is Allen going to take Floyd's place now that he's IR'd, and if so does that mean he's likely to draw the #1 CB's on a weekly basis?
He took over for Floyd the minute he got hurt. He should retain that position all year and get 95+% of the offensive snaps.Is Allen going to take Floyd's place now that he's IR'd, and if so does that mean he's likely to draw the #1 CB's on a weekly basis?
Broyles was misplaced hype IMO. He still looks injured and Stafford only has eyes for Megatron and Bush.Before you leap just look back to last week when the hype was on Broyles....Allen may excel - but don't put too many eggs in that basket.
Yea because there's sooo much risk when it comes to picking up a player. People are going to drop guys like Donnie Avery to pick him up, not Calvin Johnson.Before you leap just look back to last week when the hype was on Broyles....Allen may excel - but don't put too many eggs in that basket.
He played hurt (PCL) his senior year (maybe missed some time) and played with a horrible QB. He could have been the top WR prospect in this draft.Why was he drafted so high when he is slow?
Very well stated.He played hurt (PCL) his senior year (maybe missed some time) and played with a horrible QB. He could have been the top WR prospect in this draft.Why was he drafted so high when he is slow?
Guys like Matt Waldman and Greg Cosell liked him above DeAndre Hopkins in assessments this offseason. Just Google his name and see other scouting reports.
Seeing him play in limited snaps and preseason, he plays 'large' as someone stated, and he lays out for the ball. Good hands, good boundary receiver. I don't know the quality of CB he's playing against, but I think as he get settled in the offense and gets his PCL healed, he could develop into a top 20 WR next year. For this year, I would temper expectations.
Oh, that changes everything. My bad.Yea because there's sooo much risk when it comes to picking up a player. People are going to drop guys like Donnie Avery to pick him up, not Calvin Johnson.Before you leap just look back to last week when the hype was on Broyles....Allen may excel - but don't put too many eggs in that basket.
That Philly game could also be an outlier.Let's recap here now that Malcom Floyd is officially out of the picture for 2013, which IMO is very big news.
Combined Floyd and Allen stats this season -
vs. Hou - 98% of snaps, 5 tgt, 1 rec, 47 yds (all Floyd)
@ Phi - 96% snaps, 9 tgt, 7 rec, 136 yds (Floyd hurt after posting 5/102 on 53% of snaps)
@ Ten - 83% snaps, 1 tgt, 1 rec, -4 yds
vs. Dal - 94% snaps, 6 tgt, 5 rec, 80 yds
Keenan is now the deep threat on an offense that seems very potent. If he's better than Malcom Floyd - and aside from straight line speed, I think he is in every other way - this guy is now in position to make some serious noise. Temper expectations given that he's a rookie and has a bummy knee, but skills wise and opportunity wise, this is a very sneaky situation for fantasy.
I'm on the wagon on one team with suspect WR depth, but still lurking for another where my WRs are stacked. I love that sans the Ten week, his first as an NFL starter, against a stout D, his YPR is very nice. I also think he's going to be a G/L threat as teams focus on Gates, Royal and Woodhead.
Watch the game rewind and you'll be even more impressed. Several of the catches he made weren't easy at all AND the sixth target was to him in the end zone where he had his man beat, but Rivers overthrew b/c he was scrambling and going down as he threw it. A better pass and Allen's line would've been 6 for 6 for 90 and a TD, and Allen would be THE hot waiver pickup right now. Instead everyone's still snoozing on him. Take it fwiw.But that Dallas line sure seems like a standard Floyd line, very nice, especially when you throw in a TD.
much appreciated! I just picked him up in a dynasty league and feel good about his futureWatch the game rewind and you'll be even more impressed. Several of the catches he made weren't easy at all AND the sixth target was to him in the end zone where he had his man beat, but Rivers overthrew b/c he was scrambling and going down as he threw it. A better pass and Allen's line would've been 6 for 6 for 90 and a TD, and Allen would be THE hot waiver pickup right now. Instead everyone's still snoozing on him. Take it fwiw.But that Dallas line sure seems like a standard Floyd line, very nice, especially when you throw in a TD.
Yeah I was thinking this too, since he wasn't even on ESPN's waiver pickups list, which normally has the most obvious options. It ended up being a perfect stat line - enough to give us an indication that there might be something there in the second half of the season, but not good enough (around 13 pts in PPR) that he would be a hot WW pickup, especially since he had done nothing in the first three weeks so it probably seemed like an outlier if you were just scanning numbers. A TD would have brought far more attention this week.Watch the game rewind and you'll be even more impressed. Several of the catches he made weren't easy at all AND the sixth target was to him in the end zone where he had his man beat, but Rivers overthrew b/c he was scrambling and going down as he threw it. A better pass and Allen's line would've been 6 for 6 for 90 and a TD, and Allen would be THE hot waiver pickup right now. Instead everyone's still snoozing on him. Take it fwiw.But that Dallas line sure seems like a standard Floyd line, very nice, especially when you throw in a TD.