*** OFFICIAL *** In-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (3 Viewers)

[EBF]

DT is a beast who will be fine with any warm body at QB IMO. Decker is a UFA after this year, and IMO that should absolutely be taken into account re: his value moving forward. Thomas? No idea, but athletically he's not special. Good, yes. But he's not Vernon Davis or Jimmy Graham. Julius feels like good player, perfect storm, ridiculous unsustainable hot streak to me as opposed to a genuine elite guy.

Agree with that. Seems like a good sell high candidate to me.

Not sure I like the Mathews/Miller deal much, but I do think it's a great time to move Julius.

 

[garlicduck]

12 Team PPR with Devys - I'm out of it this year, so looking to get younger.

Gave up:
McGahee, Willis CLE RB
Marshall, Brandon CHI WR

Got back:
Cobb, Randall GBP WR
Kelce, Travis KCC TE

 

[whoDATT]

12 team PPR start 2RB/2WR with two flex options

Team A gave Knowshon Moreno & Danny Amendola

Team B gave Brandon Marshall & Shane Vereen

I wasn't involved, but both teams filled needs so it looks like a win-win (team A was deep at RB and needed a stud WR while team B was deep at WR an only had Steven Jackson/Vereen/Mendenhall/Powell at RB)

 

[Kleck]

• Team B gave up Rice, Ray BAL RB
• Team C gave up Stacy, Zac STL RB;Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR; Year 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick (late);Year 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick (late)

• Team A gave up Palmer, Carson ARI QB; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from Comatose Sleepers

Team B gave up Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

• Team A gave up Ertz, Zach PHI TE
• Team B gave up Randle, Joseph DAL RB

 

[thaniz]

14 team PPR.

Team A gives:

Roy Helu

Russell Wilson

Julio Jones

for

Team B:

Peyton Manning

Antonio Brown

Team A is 3-3, Team B is 2-4.

 

[EBF]

14 team PPR.

Team A gives:

Roy Helu

Russell Wilson

Julio Jones

for

Team B:

Peyton Manning

Antonio Brown

Team A is 3-3, Team B is 2-4.

Seems really short-sighted to me. Long term, Antonio Brown is a WR2-WR3.

Peyton will be done within another couple years most likely.

At this time next year Julio might fetch top 5 overall value.

 

[FUBAR]

14 team PPR.

Team A gives:

Roy Helu

Russell Wilson

Julio Jones

for

Team B:

Peyton Manning

Antonio Brown

Team A is 3-3, Team B is 2-4.

Seems really short-sighted to me. Long term, Antonio Brown is a WR2-WR3.

Peyton will be done within another couple years most likely.

At this time next year Julio might fetch top 5 overall value.

Even though I think Peyton lasts a few years, give me the Julio side easily.

 

[cstu]

14 team PPR.

Team A gives:

Roy Helu

Russell Wilson

Julio Jones

for

Team B:

Peyton Manning

Antonio Brown

Team A is 3-3, Team B is 2-4.

Seems really short-sighted to me. Long term, Antonio Brown is a WR2-WR3.

Peyton will be done within another couple years most likely.

At this time next year Julio might fetch top 5 overall value.

If A doesn't win the title he's going to be kicking himself.

 

[EthnicFury]

Team A gave:

Trent Richardson

Percy Harvin

Bryce Brown

Khiry Robinson

2015 3rd

Team B gave:

Arian Foster

Brandon Marshall

Daryl Richardson

Jerome Simpson

2015 2nd

A is a prospective contender decimated by injury. B has been punching above its weight but probably needed to rebuild.

EDIT: 12 team 0.5 PPR QRRWWD with a RB/WR flex and a WR/TE flex

Had it just been TRich/Harvin for Foster/Marshall I don't think it's too bad but I hate that he gave up Brown and Robinson.

I'm team A and that's kind of how I feel about it. Justified it somewhat to myself based upon having gotten both of them for essentially free, but long term it still hurts a lot.

 

[renesauz]

12 team PPR with taxi squads. Required to start only 1 RB and 1 WR, 3 flex. Team 1 an obvious rebuild lacked quality young depth. Team 2 still fighting this year, some bad luck, had good depth.

[SIZE=12pt]Team 1 gave up Steven Jackson, Quiz Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]Team 2 gave up Shane Vereen, Cecil Shorts, and Markus Wheaton [/SIZE]

 

[Adam Harstad]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

 

[Adam Harstad]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

And some people wildly underrate them.

If we are talking about 2014 and beyond, I like Julio over Green, and I think I like Cobb prety much just as much as Thomas, and will definitely when Manning is done.

The pick is just a bonus at that point, and a hell of a bonus.

Thomas is at least a full tier ahead of Randall Cobb, now and forever.

Now. Yes.In ppr when Peyton retires, give me Cobb. Of course, that's three years or so away.

The Broncos will still get to use a QB, as far as I know. And Thomas beasted during the 2nd half of 2011 with Tebow, who is pretty much the worst QB ever to start most of an entire season in NFL history. Thomas is a physical freak almost on par with Calvin Johnson.

Randall Cobb is a pretty good slot guy.

They're not even remotely close as players, NFL or FF wise.

Cobb's also 3 years younger. It's hard to say that a guy at 23 is what he's going to be, now and forevermore.

 

[Adam Harstad]

12 team IDP PPR dynasty league

Team a gave Julio Jones

Team B gave Josh Gordon, Paul Posluskny, 5th round rookie pick

Other league, same format:

Team A gave: Terrance Williams, Brent Celek

Team B gave: Jermichael Finley, 3rd round rookie pick

Any thoughts on these? I am A in both.

Sorry to tell you, I'd rather have side B in both trades.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You guys are also overlooking that the pick isn't 1.02 -- it looks like 1.02 now. It's bad process to get too specific when valuing a future pick 9 times out of 10. If that pick ends up 1.05 or 1.06 we're talking about a very different value proposition. "Probably top half" is about as specific as it's smart to bank on in assessing trade value.

Maybe, maybe not. I've seen some picks where I was willing to assign a very, very high degree of probability that they would wind up in the top 3. In dynasty leagues, just like you can sometimes get some really dominant teams, you can also sometimes get some real doormats.

I've got one league where my team is RGIII, Ridley, Ball, Tate, Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Hunter, Gronkowski, and Eifert. I'm last in the league in points scored, and a full game behind everyone else. I feel incredibly confident in that league that I'm getting myself a top-3 rookie pick next year. I'd probably assign a 90% probability to it.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Top 3-4 picks are gold. Yeah, there are lots of landmines there, but having those picks is how you get Julio, Green, Calvin, Thomas, Blackmon, etc. in the first place.

Don't see those next year though. Even if you cash out for someone great, I still don't like it and think you lost a lot of value.

Mike Evans, Watkins, Seastruck...

I'll defer to others but those all seem like Floyd level prospects not Julio, Green. JMO.

Even if those guys match 2012, the most disappointing fantasy draft class in nearly a decade, I still think it's a solid deal for the Julio/Cobb side. The top picks last year were generally Gio, Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, and maybe Lacy. Add Gio, Hopkins, or Lacy to the Julio/Cobb side and I think it's enough to tip the scales.

And again, if you're not a competitor this year, trading away Green and Demaryius improves your own draft pick, too. That has value that has to be considered. Maybe the trade then becomes Julio, Cobb, and a pair of top-3 picks for Green, Demaryius, and a pick in the 5-6 range.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Was offered Julius Thomas for my 2014 1st, I accepted with the quickness. I'm 2-4, non-ppr.

At 2-4, I'm not so sure I would have taken that offer. Only thing worse than losing in a dynasty, is losing without having your first round pick.

Depends on the 2-4. There's "good 2-4" and "bad 2-4". If you're last in the league in scoring and lucky to have 2 wins, I wouldn't do that deal for Thomas. If you're middle of the pack (or better) in points scored and have had a bit of poor schedule luck, I'd do that for Julius. Remember, owning Julius Thomas means you'll win a couple of extra games, which will drive down the value of that future first. That's the trouble with trading productive players for future firsts- those productive players will reduce the value of the pick you're receiving in return.

 

[renesauz]

Was offered Julius Thomas for my 2014 1st, I accepted with the quickness. I'm 2-4, non-ppr.

At 2-4, I'm not so sure I would have taken that offer. Only thing worse than losing in a dynasty, is losing without having your first round pick.

Depends on the 2-4. There's "good 2-4" and "bad 2-4". If you're last in the league in scoring and lucky to have 2 wins, I wouldn't do that deal for Thomas. If you're middle of the pack (or better) in points scored and have had a bit of poor schedule luck, I'd do that for Julius. Remember, owning Julius Thomas means you'll win a couple of extra games, which will drive down the value of that future first. That's the trouble with trading productive players for future firsts- those productive players will reduce the value of the pick you're receiving in return.

This is a very good point. All 2-4 teams are not the same. I have acouple of them. One of them I'm looking to rebuild. Another I'm middle of the pack in points having already played 3 of the top 4 in points.

 

[loose circuits]

F gave up Riddick, Theo DET RB;Sanders, Ace JAC WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (10-12 if I had to guess) ;Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (8-12 maybe)

C gave up Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Brown, Antonio PIT WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick (top 4)

12x30 PPR

I blasted this trade on my message board as I don't think it's fair. I realize it's not collusion, but it sucks because team F is likely easily in the drivers seat. Others in the league seem to be sympathetic for the trading owner. Is that really all Moreno (who's 3rd RB scoring) and Brown (9th for WR) are worth?

 

[Adam Harstad]

12 team PPR, 20-man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi Squad, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

Team A got: Jordy Nelson, Danny Woodhead

Team B got: Julio Jones, Mark Ingram

 

[Coeur de Lion]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

Ehhhh... take it back to 2005 and you're adding Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Lawrence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams / Santonio Holmes on the meh side of the equation with only Bush as a hit. And with the possible exception of Gio Bernard, 2013 was a turd pile even in the top 3. Even the top 3 picks are 60/40 in my experience.

Plus, we definitely disagree on the relative values of DT and Cobb.

 

[renesauz]

12 team PPR, 20-man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi Squad, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

Team A got: Jordy Nelson, Danny Woodhead

Team B got: Julio Jones, Mark Ingram

A must be desperately needing a quality starter to stay in contention. Love this for B. (To be fair, I don't value Woodhead very highly in dynasty)

 

[Adam Harstad]

F gave up Riddick, Theo DET RB;Sanders, Ace JAC WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (10-12 if I had to guess) ;Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (8-12 maybe)

C gave up Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Brown, Antonio PIT WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick (top 4)

I blasted this trade on my message board as I don't think it's fair. I realize it's not collusion, but it sucks because team F is likely easily in the drivers seat. Others in the league seem to be sympathetic for the trading owner. Is that really all Moreno (who's 3rd RB scoring) and Brown (9th for WR) are worth?

I put Moreno on the block in one league where he's currently RB5 (right between Lynch and McCoy), and the only offer I've received is Tandon Doss and a rookie 2nd. A couple of others have sniffed around, but buzzed off once I said I was looking for at least a mid-to-high first (or comparable value). In theory, Moreno should EASILY be worth that (likely RB1 this year, and then worst case scenario is next year he's a 27-year-old UFA who'll be brought in somewhere to be a starter, best case scenario is he's back in Denver again). In practice... not so much. It's very possible that team C had been shopping Moreno and that was simply the best offer he got.

 

[renesauz]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

Ehhhh... take it back to 2005 and you're adding Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Lawrence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams / Santonio Holmes on the meh side of the equation with only Bush as a hit. And with the possible exception of Gio Bernard, 2013 was a turd pile even in the top 3. Even the top 3 picks are 60/40 in my experience.

Plus, we definitely disagree on the relative values of DT and Cobb.

Whole-heartedly disagree. For starters, Adam's list clearly shows the odds are better than 60-40. Secondly, it's a bit early to declare the 2013 top 3 a turd pile. Lacy and Hopkins both appear to have a great future, and we haven't seen enough of Bell to know yet. Tavon Austin is the only top 5 pick that looks like a "turd pile" at this point, but it's still too early to be sure.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

F gave up Riddick, Theo DET RB;Sanders, Ace JAC WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (10-12 if I had to guess) ;Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (8-12 maybe)

C gave up Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Brown, Antonio PIT WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick (top 4)

I blasted this trade on my message board as I don't think it's fair. I realize it's not collusion, but it sucks because team F is likely easily in the drivers seat. Others in the league seem to be sympathetic for the trading owner. Is that really all Moreno (who's 3rd RB scoring) and Brown (9th for WR) are worth?

I put Moreno on the block in one league where he's currently RB5 (right between Lynch and McCoy), and the only offer I've received is Tandon Doss and a rookie 2nd. A couple of others have sniffed around, but buzzed off once I said I was looking for at least a mid-to-high first (or comparable value). In theory, Moreno should EASILY be worth that (likely RB1 this year, and then worst case scenario is next year he's a 27-year-old UFA who'll be brought in somewhere to be a starter, best case scenario is he's back in Denver again). In practice... not so much. It's very possible that team C had been shopping Moreno and that was simply the best offer he got.

Yep. Plus there's a pretty strong perception that Brown is playing over his long term ability (which I disagree with BTW -- he's a legit low end WR1).

 

[Adam Harstad]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

Ehhhh... take it back to 2005 and you're adding Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Lawrence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams / Santonio Holmes on the meh side of the equation with only Bush as a hit. And with the possible exception of Gio Bernard, 2013 was a turd pile even in the top 3. Even the top 3 picks are 60/40 in my experience.

Plus, we definitely disagree on the relative values of DT and Cobb.

I went back to 2007 because that's how far my oldest league went back. Still, even if you take it back however far you want to take it back and the ratio "only" becomes 60% of top-3 picks who become studs... let's say we create a unit of measure called a "Julio". A Julio is a cornerstone stud, and all Julios are created equal. Julio Jones = 1 Julio. A.J. Green = 1 Julio. Demaryius Thomas = 1 Julio. Reasonable people might order these guys one way or another, but all can agree that at the end of the day they're roughly equivalent in value. That 1.02 pick is then worth 60% of a Julio, based on your 60/40 success rate. Call it 50/50 just to be super-fair, and ignore the value of the guys who weren't quite Julios, but still had some value (your Mathewses, your Morenos, etc).

Using this ultra-scientific measurement, that trade breaks down to 2 Julios for 1.5 Julios + Randall Cobb. Is Cobb worth half a Julio? Would you trade one Julio for two Cobbs? I would, so I think it's a good trade.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

Ehhhh... take it back to 2005 and you're adding Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Lawrence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams / Santonio Holmes on the meh side of the equation with only Bush as a hit. And with the possible exception of Gio Bernard, 2013 was a turd pile even in the top 3. Even the top 3 picks are 60/40 in my experience.Plus, we definitely disagree on the relative values of DT and Cobb.

Whole-heartedly disagree. For starters, Adam's list clearly shows the odds are better than 60-40. Secondly, it's a bit early to declare the 2013 top 3 a turd pile. Lacy and Hopkins both appear to have a great future, and we haven't seen enough of Bell to know yet. Tavon Austin is the only top 5 pick that looks like a "turd pile" at this point, but it's still too early to be sure.

Adam's list shows 67 / 33 if you're counting Richardson as a hit, from 2007 - 2012. Pull the data over a 20 year span and get back to me (I'll do it later when I have time maybe too).

2013's top three were indeed a turd pile -- Austin in every league I'm in, Gio, and roughly 2/3 Ball 1/3 Bell. Yes it's too early to tell, but wart-covered round 2 RBs with a top 3 pick bites.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

A few more Julio trades:

FFPC:

I gave Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones and 2014 1st (estimated at 1.7-1.10)

DFWC:

I gave AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

I got Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and 2014 1st (currently and most likely 1.2)

If they don't cost you a championship, I like them both a lot.

I agree. The second one is tough but if the pick does end up 1.2 it's a great trade.

Don't understand the 2nd one.

Some people wildly overrate draft picks.

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

Ehhhh... take it back to 2005 and you're adding Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Lawrence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams / Santonio Holmes on the meh side of the equation with only Bush as a hit. And with the possible exception of Gio Bernard, 2013 was a turd pile even in the top 3. Even the top 3 picks are 60/40 in my experience.Plus, we definitely disagree on the relative values of DT and Cobb.

I went back to 2007 because that's how far my oldest league went back. Still, even if you take it back however far you want to take it back and the ratio "only" becomes 60% of top-3 picks who become studs... let's say we create a unit of measure called a "Julio". A Julio is a cornerstone stud, and all Julios are created equal. Julio Jones = 1 Julio. A.J. Green = 1 Julio. Demaryius Thomas = 1 Julio. Reasonable people might order these guys one way or another, but all can agree that at the end of the day they're roughly equivalent in value. That 1.02 pick is then worth 60% of a Julio, based on your 60/40 success rate. Call it 50/50 just to be super-fair, and ignore the value of the guys who weren't quite Julios, but still had some value (your Mathewses, your Morenos, etc).

Using this ultra-scientific measurement, that trade breaks down to 2 Julios for 1.5 Julios + Randall Cobb. Is Cobb worth half a Julio? Would you trade one Julio for two Cobbs? I would, so I think it's a good trade.

Great way to look at it. I wouldn't trade 2 Cobbs for one Julio, so I wouldn't do it. A hypothetical 100 point VBD player is worth waaaay more than two 50 VBD guys IMO.

 

[loose circuits]

F gave up Riddick, Theo DET RB;Sanders, Ace JAC WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (10-12 if I had to guess) ;Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (8-12 maybe)

C gave up Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Brown, Antonio PIT WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick (top 4)

I blasted this trade on my message board as I don't think it's fair. I realize it's not collusion, but it sucks because team F is likely easily in the drivers seat. Others in the league seem to be sympathetic for the trading owner. Is that really all Moreno (who's 3rd RB scoring) and Brown (9th for WR) are worth?

I put Moreno on the block in one league where he's currently RB5 (right between Lynch and McCoy), and the only offer I've received is Tandon Doss and a rookie 2nd. A couple of others have sniffed around, but buzzed off once I said I was looking for at least a mid-to-high first (or comparable value). In theory, Moreno should EASILY be worth that (likely RB1 this year, and then worst case scenario is next year he's a 27-year-old UFA who'll be brought in somewhere to be a starter, best case scenario is he's back in Denver again). In practice... not so much. It's very possible that team C had been shopping Moreno and that was simply the best offer he got.

Yep. Plus there's a pretty strong perception that Brown is playing over his long term ability (which I disagree with BTW -- he's a legit low end WR1).

good points. At the least Brown should be worth 2 1st's IMO because he's no lower than a top 20 WR. Those guys don't grow on trees and 2 late 1sts are still gambles especially with May drafts

 

[Adam Harstad]

12 team PPR, 20-man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi Squad, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

Team A got: Jordy Nelson, Danny Woodhead

Team B got: Julio Jones, Mark Ingram

A must be desperately needing a quality starter to stay in contention. Love this for B. (To be fair, I don't value Woodhead very highly in dynasty)

I'm team B, and in fairness, I was able to cheat a little bit. Team A publishes his rankings, so I happened to know he was much higher on Jordy than the market consensus.

Playing with leaguemates who have access to your rankings can be a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, Team A got an upgrade that, had his rankings not been published, he might not have had a chance to get. When my leaguemates have access to my rankings, I'm much more likely to wind up with a lot of players I have ranked highly, simply because they'll pore over those rankings looking for anything they disagree with and then offer trades to take advantage. I'm cool with that- if I disagree with someone on a player's value, I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is, make the trade, and see who was right once the dust settles.

On the other hand, I would have given up more to get Julio, but knowing how the other guy had them ranked, I knew I didn't have to. It's hard to play the "market value" card and make a legitimate killing in a trade when your leaguemates can see your rankings. If they know how you value players, they know how to cobble together an offer that's pretty much the bare minimum deal you would accept.

 

[renesauz]

F gave up Riddick, Theo DET RB;Sanders, Ace JAC WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (10-12 if I had to guess) ;Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (8-12 maybe)

C gave up Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Brown, Antonio PIT WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick (top 4)

I blasted this trade on my message board as I don't think it's fair. I realize it's not collusion, but it sucks because team F is likely easily in the drivers seat. Others in the league seem to be sympathetic for the trading owner. Is that really all Moreno (who's 3rd RB scoring) and Brown (9th for WR) are worth?

I put Moreno on the block in one league where he's currently RB5 (right between Lynch and McCoy), and the only offer I've received is Tandon Doss and a rookie 2nd. A couple of others have sniffed around, but buzzed off once I said I was looking for at least a mid-to-high first (or comparable value). In theory, Moreno should EASILY be worth that (likely RB1 this year, and then worst case scenario is next year he's a 27-year-old UFA who'll be brought in somewhere to be a starter, best case scenario is he's back in Denver again). In practice... not so much. It's very possible that team C had been shopping Moreno and that was simply the best offer he got.

Yep. Plus there's a pretty strong perception that Brown is playing over his long term ability (which I disagree with BTW -- he's a legit low end WR1).

good points. At the least Brown should be worth 2 1st's IMO because he's no lower than a top 20 WR. Those guys don't grow on trees and 2 late 1sts are still gambles especially with May drafts

WE spent a lot of time discussing this in the dynasty thread, and I disagree. The WR's between 15 and 50 produce close in value and churn a lot year to year. ON waivers in almost every league are two or three WRs capable of putting up WR2/3 numbers in the right matchup. IE: OUtside of the top 15 or so, WR's lose value quickly because none of them provide a consistant and reliable SIGNIFICANT week to week edge over the others. Brown is NOT worth two #1 picks unless you project him to remain a top 12 WR for the next 6 years, and that's an awfully thin limb to go out on. (Assuming random 1s vs. known to be late 1s)

 

[renesauz]

12 team PPR with taxi squads. Required to start only 1 RB and 1 WR, 3 flex. Team 1 an obvious rebuild lacked quality young depth. Team 2 still fighting this year, some bad luck, had good depth.

[SIZE=12pt]Team 1 gave up Steven Jackson, Quiz Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]Team 2 gave up Shane Vereen, Cecil Shorts, and Markus Wheaton [/SIZE]

Anyone with thoughts on this one?

 

[EthnicFury]

F gave up Riddick, Theo DET RB;Sanders, Ace JAC WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (10-12 if I had to guess) ;Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (8-12 maybe)

C gave up Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Brown, Antonio PIT WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick (top 4)

I blasted this trade on my message board as I don't think it's fair. I realize it's not collusion, but it sucks because team F is likely easily in the drivers seat. Others in the league seem to be sympathetic for the trading owner. Is that really all Moreno (who's 3rd RB scoring) and Brown (9th for WR) are worth?

I put Moreno on the block in one league where he's currently RB5 (right between Lynch and McCoy), and the only offer I've received is Tandon Doss and a rookie 2nd. A couple of others have sniffed around, but buzzed off once I said I was looking for at least a mid-to-high first (or comparable value). In theory, Moreno should EASILY be worth that (likely RB1 this year, and then worst case scenario is next year he's a 27-year-old UFA who'll be brought in somewhere to be a starter, best case scenario is he's back in Denver again). In practice... not so much. It's very possible that team C had been shopping Moreno and that was simply the best offer he got.

Yep. Plus there's a pretty strong perception that Brown is playing over his long term ability (which I disagree with BTW -- he's a legit low end WR1).

good points. At the least Brown should be worth 2 1st's IMO because he's no lower than a top 20 WR. Those guys don't grow on trees and 2 late 1sts are still gambles especially with May drafts

WE spent a lot of time discussing this in the dynasty thread, and I disagree. The WR's between 15 and 50 produce close in value and churn a lot year to year. ON waivers in almost every league are two or three WRs capable of putting up WR2/3 numbers in the right matchup. IE: OUtside of the top 15 or so, WR's lose value quickly because none of them provide a consistant and reliable SIGNIFICANT week to week edge over the others. Brown is NOT worth two #1 picks unless you project him to remain a top 12 WR for the next 6 years, and that's an awfully thin limb to go out on. (Assuming random 1s vs. known to be late 1s)

I would trade Brown for two firsts in a heartbeat (as you say, assuming random 1's vs known to be late 1's).

 

[Meast21]

12 team PPR, IDP 28-man rosters + 2 IR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex


Team A gives: Reggie Bush and Jordy Nelson
Team B gives: Doug Martin

Team A is pretty loaded at WR (Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Blackmon, M. Williams)
Team B is going for the title this year

 

[renesauz]

12 team PPR, IDP 28-man rosters + 2 IR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex


Team A gives: Reggie Bush and Jordy Nelson
Team B gives: Doug Martin

Team A is pretty loaded at WR (Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Blackmon, M. Williams)
Team B is going for the title this year

Feel pretty neutral on this one. Like it more for B, but could see this for A....he's clearly looking to next year

 

[msudaisy26]

12 team PPR, IDP 28-man rosters + 2 IR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex


Team A gives: Reggie Bush and Jordy Nelson
Team B gives: Doug Martin

Team A is pretty loaded at WR (Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Blackmon, M. Williams)
Team B is going for the title this year

Feel pretty neutral on this one. Like it more for B, but could see this for A....he's clearly looking to next year

I agree, I am a little surprised Martin fetched that much.

 

[renesauz]

12 team PPR, IDP 28-man rosters + 2 IR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex


Team A gives: Reggie Bush and Jordy Nelson
Team B gives: Doug Martin

Team A is pretty loaded at WR (Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Blackmon, M. Williams)
Team B is going for the title this year

Feel pretty neutral on this one. Like it more for B, but could see this for A....he's clearly looking to next year

I agree, I am a little surprised Martin fetched that much.

I'm not. Martin proved he's a very good young RB last year. He's easily well more valuable than Bush longer term, and by far the best player in this deal, but Bush is huge for this year (and maybe next?) and Nelson is a quality WR2/3. A good example of a win-win deal where B gets a significant push for a title run while A nets more value long term

 

[msudaisy26]

12 team PPR, IDP 28-man rosters + 2 IR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex


Team A gives: Reggie Bush and Jordy Nelson
Team B gives: Doug Martin

Team A is pretty loaded at WR (Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Blackmon, M. Williams)
Team B is going for the title this year

Feel pretty neutral on this one. Like it more for B, but could see this for A....he's clearly looking to next year

I agree, I am a little surprised Martin fetched that much.

I'm not. Martin proved he's a very good young RB last year. He's easily well more valuable than Bush longer term, and by far the best player in this deal, but Bush is huge for this year (and maybe next?) and Nelson is a quality WR2/3. A good example of a win-win deal where B gets a significant push for a title run while A nets more value long term

Ya I guess I can see it that way. I guess I am a little angry. I own Martin and haven't gotten an offer even close to that for him.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Great way to look at it. I wouldn't trade 2 Cobbs for one Julio, so I wouldn't do it. A hypothetical 100 point VBD player is worth waaaay more than two 50 VBD guys IMO.

I agree, but I think it's too early to lock Julio in as a 100 VBD guy and Cobb in as a 50 VBD guy.

Let's look at PFR (which uses non-PPR, but that shouldn't be a factor as, if anything, switching to PPR should help the Julio/Cobb side) and come up with the most generous possible comparison for Demaryius. Let's look at Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson, restrict ourselves only to their respective primes, and completely discard all seasons where they didn't play at least 14 games. Again, my goal here is just to provide the most over-the-top generous comparison for Demaryius Thomas that I can possible make.

Using that incredibly generous comparison, the average VBD by those three HoF talents in their healthy prime was just 77. And again, this was a ridiculously stacked comparison. Using all of those favorable cutoffs gave us 15 seasons, and 12 of them were WR7 or better seasons (including 10 top-5 finishes and 6 top-2 finishes).

For comparison, half of that VBD total (38.5 VBD) would typically result in a WR15-18 finish. So yeah, if you think that Demaryius Thomas is the ******* lovechild of Andre, Calvin, and Larry, and you think Randall Cobb is a perennial WR18-type, then yeah, Demaryius is more than twice as valuable than Cobb. If, on the other hand, you think Cobb is more likely to be a perennial WR10-12 kind of guy, then you're looking at more in the neighborhood of 50 VBD. Is a guy who gets ~75 VBD worth more than two guys who get ~50 VBD? I don't think so. I think that comparison favors the 50 VBD guys.

Again, this comparison is based off of PFR, and if anything, it's biased in favor of Demaryius. PFR uses WR30 as a baseline- dropping the baseline to WR36 will increase the ratio of Cobb's projected VBD to Demaryius's. Switching to PPR will tend to favor Julio and Cobb (who seem better bets to catch a lot of passes than Green and Demaryius). And if you're wrong about Demaryius, if Demaryius doesn't wind up becoming the next Calvin/Andre/Larry, then there's a LOT of potential downside to that trade.

Like I said, I really think that's a strong trade for the guy getting Julio and Cobb, especially if he's not winning anything this year, anyway. Trading 2 Julios for 1.5 Julios, a Cobb, and an upgrade to their 1st round pick? Strong move.

 

[Adam Harstad]

12 team PPR, IDP 28-man rosters + 2 IR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex


Team A gives: Reggie Bush and Jordy Nelson
Team B gives: Doug Martin

Team A is pretty loaded at WR (Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Blackmon, M. Williams)
Team B is going for the title this year

In a PPR league where you can potentially start 3 RBs vs. 2 WRs, I'd much prefer the Martin side.

 

[Ernol]

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

You guys are also overlooking that the pick isn't 1.02 -- it looks like 1.02 now. It's bad process to get too specific when valuing a future pick 9 times out of 10. If that pick ends up 1.05 or 1.06 we're talking about a very different value proposition. "Probably top half" is about as specific as it's smart to bank on in assessing trade value.

Maybe, maybe not. I've seen some picks where I was willing to assign a very, very high degree of probability that they would wind up in the top 3. In dynasty leagues, just like you can sometimes get some really dominant teams, you can also sometimes get some real doormats.

I've got one league where my team is RGIII, Ridley, Ball, Tate, Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Hunter, Gronkowski, and Eifert. I'm last in the league in points scored, and a full game behind everyone else. I feel incredibly confident in that league that I'm getting myself a top-3 rookie pick next year. I'd probably assign a 90% probability to it.

In making the trade, I considered the same points Adam has made.

The probability is good that the pick will be #2. Unlike other leagues, this one slots non-playoff teams by least points scored. That in itself removes a lot of variability in comparison to leagues that slot by win-loss records or VPs. This pick is 50 points away from the 1.1 (and closing) and 50 points away from the 1.3, so there is some cushion. Add to that that I own both the 1.1 and 1.3 and you can see why there is some safety in counting on this pick as the 1.2.

My own pick with Green and Demaryius would have likely ended up 1.7, maybe even 1.8, but not good enough where I would have actually made the playoffs (only top 4 make it). Without Demaryius and Green, I will likely plummet to 1.4, possibly even pass up my other pick at 1.3. At the end of the day, I should end up with the top 4 picks with this trade (to go along with 3 other mid and late 1sts). Without the trade, while not all that likely, it was possible that I could have missed out on the 1.1, which would have been a disaster.

Other factors mandate that I take these kind of risks to hit a home run (Julio/Cobb/1.2) instead of the sure double (Green/Demaryius). This competition (144 teams in 12-team leagues - DFWC) rewards the “great” team moreso than single leagues as there are overall prizes each year ($5,000 to the overall winner) and better yet, a “Dynasty King” prize of $2,000 each year for the team that has the most total points over a 3-year stretch. These prizes are in addition to $2,400 in annual league prizes (up to $2,000 of which could go to the league champion). For a $299 per team investment, a dominant team could end up making a killing over a span of several years, since the same team could conceivably win the Dynasty King prize in consecutive years since results of one year apply to three different Dynasty King years. Accordingly, it pays to shoot for the stars in this case. Playing it safe will only leave you as just one of 143 other teams missing out on the Dynasty King prize.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Great way to look at it. I wouldn't trade 2 Cobbs for one Julio, so I wouldn't do it. A hypothetical 100 point VBD player is worth waaaay more than two 50 VBD guys IMO.

I agree, but I think it's too early to lock Julio in as a 100 VBD guy and Cobb in as a 50 VBD guy.

Let's look at PFR (which uses non-PPR, but that shouldn't be a factor as, if anything, switching to PPR should help the Julio/Cobb side) and come up with the most generous possible comparison for Demaryius. Let's look at Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson, restrict ourselves only to their respective primes, and completely discard all seasons where they didn't play at least 14 games. Again, my goal here is just to provide the most over-the-top generous comparison for Demaryius Thomas that I can possible make.

Using that incredibly generous comparison, the average VBD by those three HoF talents in their healthy prime was just 77. And again, this was a ridiculously stacked comparison. Using all of those favorable cutoffs gave us 15 seasons, and 12 of them were WR7 or better seasons (including 10 top-5 finishes and 6 top-2 finishes).

For comparison, half of that VBD total (38.5 VBD) would typically result in a WR15-18 finish. So yeah, if you think that Demaryius Thomas is the ******* lovechild of Andre, Calvin, and Larry, and you think Randall Cobb is a perennial WR18-type, then yeah, Demaryius is more than twice as valuable than Cobb. If, on the other hand, you think Cobb is more likely to be a perennial WR10-12 kind of guy, then you're looking at more in the neighborhood of 50 VBD. Is a guy who gets ~75 VBD worth more than two guys who get ~50 VBD? I don't think so. I think that comparison favors the 50 VBD guys.

Again, this comparison is based off of PFR, and if anything, it's biased in favor of Demaryius. PFR uses WR30 as a baseline- dropping the baseline to WR36 will increase the ratio of Cobb's projected VBD to Demaryius's. Switching to PPR will tend to favor Julio and Cobb (who seem better bets to catch a lot of passes than Green and Demaryius). And if you're wrong about Demaryius, if Demaryius doesn't wind up becoming the next Calvin/Andre/Larry, then there's a LOT of potential downside to that trade.

Like I said, I really think that's a strong trade for the guy getting Julio and Cobb, especially if he's not winning anything this year, anyway. Trading 2 Julios for 1.5 Julios, a Cobb, and an upgrade to their 1st round pick? Strong move.

VBD is worth more the higher up the curve you go, and it's also better when consolidated into as few roster spots as possible. The trade is two Julios for 1.x Julios (depending on your valuation of Cobb, who I've always liked significantly less than the consensus) and a pick that may be 1.02 -- I'm not a fan of moving cornerstone players without getting one in return, period.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Nah, top-3 draft picks are gold in dynasty leagues. If all pieces were 100% healthy, Green/Thomas for Julio/Cobb would be an interesting trade (though I suspect a huge majority would prefer the Green/Thomas side). If you've got a team that's not winning it all this year, then all Green/Thomas are doing is driving your rookie pick down. In that case, the trade is a relatively lateral move at receiver that also nets you a top-2 draft pick (Marquise Lee? Sammy Watkins?), and improves your own draft pick in the process. I have seen a lot of teams that would really benefit from making a deal like that.

For reference, the top 3 picks in my oldest league every year from 2007 to 2012 were Peterson, Calvin, Lynch, McFadden, Forte, Stewart, Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Dez, Spiller, Mathews, Julio, Ingram, Green, Richardson, Martin, and Luck. That's 18 names. Replace "pick 1.02" with 12 of those 18 names, and that trade becomes a massive, massive, huge slam dunk for the Julio/Cobb/1.02 side. Replace "pick 1.02" with any of the other 6 names and it becomes anything from a wash to a slight loss.

All in all, I really like that trade for the Julio/Cobb side, provided they weren't a prohibitive title favorite this year. And even if they were, unless their entire team is old, that's still a strong trade for them.

You guys are also overlooking that the pick isn't 1.02 -- it looks like 1.02 now. It's bad process to get too specific when valuing a future pick 9 times out of 10. If that pick ends up 1.05 or 1.06 we're talking about a very different value proposition. "Probably top half" is about as specific as it's smart to bank on in assessing trade value.

Maybe, maybe not. I've seen some picks where I was willing to assign a very, very high degree of probability that they would wind up in the top 3. In dynasty leagues, just like you can sometimes get some really dominant teams, you can also sometimes get some real doormats.

I've got one league where my team is RGIII, Ridley, Ball, Tate, Julio, Harvin, Crabtree, Hunter, Gronkowski, and Eifert. I'm last in the league in points scored, and a full game behind everyone else. I feel incredibly confident in that league that I'm getting myself a top-3 rookie pick next year. I'd probably assign a 90% probability to it.

In making the trade, I considered the same points Adam has made.

The probability is good that the pick will be #2. Unlike other leagues, this one slots non-playoff teams by least points scored. That in itself removes a lot of variability in comparison to leagues that slot by win-loss records or VPs. This pick is 50 points away from the 1.1 (and closing) and 50 points away from the 1.3, so there is some cushion. Add to that that I own both the 1.1 and 1.3 and you can see why there is some safety in counting on this pick as the 1.2.

My own pick with Green and Demaryius would have likely ended up 1.7, maybe even 1.8, but not good enough where I would have actually made the playoffs (only top 4 make it). Without Demaryius and Green, I will likely plummet to 1.4, possibly even pass up my other pick at 1.3. At the end of the day, I should end up with the top 4 picks with this trade (to go along with 3 other mid and late 1sts). Without the trade, while not all that likely, it was possible that I could have missed out on the 1.1, which would have been a disaster.

Other factors mandate that I take these kind of risks to hit a home run (Julio/Cobb/1.2) instead of the sure double (Green/Demaryius). This competition (144 teams in 12-team leagues - DFWC) rewards the great team moreso than single leagues as there are overall prizes each year ($5,000 to the overall winner) and better yet, a Dynasty King prize of $2,000 each year for the team that has the most total points over a 3-year stretch. These prizes are in addition to $2,400 in annual league prizes (up to $2,000 of which could go to the league champion). For a $299 per team investment, a dominant team could end up making a killing over a span of several years, since the same team could conceivably win the Dynasty King prize in consecutive years since results of one year apply to three different Dynasty King years. Accordingly, it pays to shoot for the stars in this case. Playing it safe will only leave you as just one of 143 other teams missing out on the Dynasty King prize.

Obviously that format changes things a bit -- my objections were more based on a typical setup.

 

[Adam Harstad]

VBD is worth more the higher up the curve you go, and it's also better when consolidated into as few roster spots as possible.

Yes, I understand that, but there are limits. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 50% as much VBD? Absolutely. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 90% as much VBD? Absolutely not. At some point, you reach a break-even point where it's better to own multiple lesser-VBD players than one single high-VBD stud. And if Cobb is getting 66-75% of the VBD annually of a Demaryius Thomas, then I would say he's at least half as valuable.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

VBD is worth more the higher up the curve you go, and it's also better when consolidated into as few roster spots as possible.

Yes, I understand that, but there are limits. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 50% as much VBD? Absolutely. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 90% as much VBD? Absolutely not. At some point, you reach a break-even point where it's better to own multiple lesser-VBD players than one single high-VBD stud. And if Cobb is getting 66-75% of the VBD annually of a Demaryius Thomas, then I would say he's at least half as valuable.

Yeah so would I. But I don't think he will, personally. Last year, using PPR and a baseline of WR36 Cobb had 54% of the points over baseline that Thomas did. If you think Cobb is likely to take a major step up, then that's where we disagree. I think that given GB's tendency to spread the ball around, and the fact that I personally don't see Cobb as elite, 80 / 1000 / 8 is a reasonable baseline moving forward for him.

 

[Ernol]

VBD is worth more the higher up the curve you go, and it's also better when consolidated into as few roster spots as possible.

Yes, I understand that, but there are limits. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 50% as much VBD? Absolutely. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 90% as much VBD? Absolutely not. At some point, you reach a break-even point where it's better to own multiple lesser-VBD players than one single high-VBD stud. And if Cobb is getting 66-75% of the VBD annually of a Demaryius Thomas, then I would say he's at least half as valuable.

Yeah so would I. But I don't think he will, personally. Last year, using PPR and a baseline of WR36 Cobb had 54% of the points over baseline that Thomas did. If you think Cobb is likely to take a major step up, then that's where we disagree. I think that given GB's tendency to spread the ball around, and the fact that I personally don't see Cobb as elite, 80 / 1000 / 8 is a reasonable baseline moving forward for him.

Wasn't Cobb already in the process of taking that next step up? More targets, consistent targets, Cobb was the clear #1 for Green Bay (a very valuable situation). Cobb is the #6 WR on my board and a PPR machine. Although I'd take Demaryius over him in a heartbeat, 2 Cobbs are worth much more than one Demaryius imo.

 

[Adam Harstad]

VBD is worth more the higher up the curve you go, and it's also better when consolidated into as few roster spots as possible.

Yes, I understand that, but there are limits. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 50% as much VBD? Absolutely. Would I prefer one guy over two other guys who scored 90% as much VBD? Absolutely not. At some point, you reach a break-even point where it's better to own multiple lesser-VBD players than one single high-VBD stud. And if Cobb is getting 66-75% of the VBD annually of a Demaryius Thomas, then I would say he's at least half as valuable.

Yeah so would I. But I don't think he will, personally. Last year, using PPR and a baseline of WR36 Cobb had 54% of the points over baseline that Thomas did. If you think Cobb is likely to take a major step up, then that's where we disagree. I think that given GB's tendency to spread the ball around, and the fact that I personally don't see Cobb as elite, 80 / 1000 / 8 is a reasonable baseline moving forward for him.

Last year, Randall Cobb was a 22-year-old 2nd year pro who appeared in 15 games and started 8. If you think 22-year-olds are unlikely to continue improving, then you're right, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

Last year, Demaryius put up 1450/10 with a Hall of Fame QB. If you think that's just going to be an average, everyday, ho-hum season for him going forward, then again, we're just going to have to agree to disagree. Calvin, Larry, and Andre have combined for just four 1400/10 seasons in their entire careers (three of them by Larry, one by Calvin, none by Andre).

Even with Demaryius getting his 1400/10 and Randall being a 22-year-old getting his first NFL starts, Randall still managed to get about 60% of the points over baseline that Demaryius had (pro-rating his 15-game totals out to 16 games). And this year, Randall was very clearly improving on his numbers- even with last week's injury, his per-game averages were up 0.5 receptions and 18.3 yards. Prior to last week's injury, Cobb was up 1 reception and 23 yards vs. 2012.

Also, have I mentioned how young Randall Cobb is? He's crazy young. When Demaryius Thomas was as young as Randall Cobb is now, he had 22 career receptions. Cobb has 134. Cobb is just 23 years old. What receiver doesn't still have upside left to exploit at age 23?

 

[EBF]

Unless Cobb is going to shoot up to 6'3" 230 overnight, I'll take Thomas.

Agree with CDL. They're in different tiers talent-wise and that's never going to change.

What I like about Cobb is that he's got Rodgers at QB. Turns an NFL WR2 into a FF WR1.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

They're in different tiers talent-wise and that's never going to change.

This.

Plus the fact that no WR catching passes from Aaron Rodgers has ever caught even 81 passes. The GB offense isn't funneled through one player the way it would have to be, and Cobb isn't good enough to drag them away from what's been successful for them all along. Not saying Cobb won't ever get over 80 catches -- but I have a hard time seeing him with enough to ascend into the top tier given his relatively low FF points / target.

 

[Ernol]

They're in different tiers talent-wise and that's never going to change.

This.

Plus the fact that no WR catching passes from Aaron Rodgers has ever caught even 81 passes. The GB offense isn't funneled through one player the way it would have to be, and Cobb isn't good enough to drag them away from what's been successful for them all along. Not saying Cobb won't ever get over 80 catches -- but I have a hard time seeing him with enough to ascend into the top tier given his relatively low FF points / target.

Of course, a WR has caught 80 passes and it was Cobb in his second year, at the age of 22, when he wasn't even the full time starter. Even with the injury shortened game, Cobb was already on pace for 90+ this year. Even with the shortened game, he was on pace for 277 points in PPR. Prior to the shortened game, he was on pace for 300+....at 23 years old. Non-PPR is a different story, but hard to argue against his PPR production.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

They're in different tiers talent-wise and that's never going to change.

This.Plus the fact that no WR catching passes from Aaron Rodgers has ever caught even 81 passes. The GB offense isn't funneled through one player the way it would have to be, and Cobb isn't good enough to drag them away from what's been successful for them all along. Not saying Cobb won't ever get over 80 catches -- but I have a hard time seeing him with enough to ascend into the top tier given his relatively low FF points / target.

Of course, a WR has caught 80 passes and it was Cobb in his second year, at the age of 22, when he wasn't even the full time starter. Even with the injury shortened game, Cobb was already on pace for 90+ this year. Even with the shortened game, he was on pace for 277 points in PPR. Prior to the shortened game, he was on pace for 300+....at 23 years old. Non-PPR is a different story, but hard to argue against his PPR production.

Agree to disagree on the predictive value of a 4 1/2 game sample size. Also on target and catch totals of Demaryius Thomas vs Randall Cobb moving forward (assuming that we agree DT will have more FF points / target moving forward also). Good discussion on all fronts. Ernol, please report to the big dynasty rankings thread more often if possible -- it's where all of the cool kids hang out. Seriously, you're a smart dude who definitely knows dynasty FF and more of your opinions would be welcomed and valuable there.