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FDuel Week 11 (1 Viewer)

You guys are no better than the horseplayers who use computer programs and algorithms to handicap live animals.

Watching football and reading about football and interpreting football in your brain is all you need.

If you cant figure out that If you drop Marshall who costs 9000 and add a lesser player for 4500, you now have an extra 4500 to go upgrade a RB. Balance the risk/reward in your head and proceed accordingly.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
In any case, I'll have to think about whether there's a useful way to present the top N FanDuel lineups (and I don't know what N should be) for each set of projections going forward. It wouldn't be too hard to just dump all the lineups into tables and let people scroll up and down. Any ideas from y'all are welcome. (The best way might be to have, for any given projector and salary cap, the optimal lineup on the left side of the screen, and then when you click a player in that lineup, the best lineup without him shows up on the right side of the screen.)
Click to expand...
This is what I had in mind: link. Please excuse the complete absence of any formatting (along with the pre-MNF projections that are high on Mike James). This is not ready for prime time, but I wanted to throw it out there to get your feedback on whether something like this would be useful. If you click a player on the left, the best lineup without that player shows up on the right. (The salary caps and projectors are clickable as well.) How could I rearrange things to make it better (aside from better formatting)?

I also plan to do an interactive value chart based on each set of projections, but that's probably a couple weeks away. I'll probably sort the players by value according to a given set of projections, and then as you click on a player, it puts him into the lineup and keeps track of salary cap and points (while unclicking a player removes him). Or something like that.
Click to expand...
This is pretty cool. But I really question how useful it'll be other than just giving a great starting point (which you're already providing with the "optimal" lineup) and a cool toy to play around with.

I think I would still rather see a breakdown of all the possible lineups that break a certain barrier by how often a player appears on it. Say there are 1000 teams that break 130 pts, you could show that Peyton is on 40% of them, Brees on 25%, Pryor on 10% and so on. This would not only give us focus on which positions it seems key to pay premium for, but it also gives us a solid list of players that should make up our team.

 
There are a lot of value plays this week, just not sure how many are too obvious.

Might try for a seat to Vegas in the $200 qualifier. :unsure:

 
fbelange said:
You guys are no better than the horseplayers who use computer programs and algorithms to handicap live animals.

Watching football and reading about football and interpreting football in your brain is all you need.

If you cant figure out that If you drop Marshall who costs 9000 and add a lesser player for 4500, you now have an extra 4500 to go upgrade a RB. Balance the risk/reward in your head and proceed accordingly.
Click to expand...
Who is this guy?

 
Lynch, Lacy, Tate and Ellington showing up in a lot of my lineups.

For WR: AJ, Marshall, and DJax, with the cheap RB I can get 2 easily.

TE: Reed almost exclusively.

Anybody trying Harvin at $6500?

 
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If both active I'm going to throw a lineup into a tourney with Vereen and Harvin just for ####s and giggles. Guys have been going off when they come back.

 
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fbelange said:
You guys are no better than the horseplayers who use computer programs and algorithms to handicap live animals.

Watching football and reading about football and interpreting football in your brain is all you need.

If you cant figure out that If you drop Marshall who costs 9000 and add a lesser player for 4500, you now have an extra 4500 to go upgrade a RB. Balance the risk/reward in your head and proceed accordingly.
Click to expand...
I didn't realize you were better at predicting outcomes than super computers that analyze every snap along with the input of experts who talk to coaches, players and statisticians who compute every last aspect of the game.

If only I was like you and Bradley Cooper in Limitless, then Fanduel would be so easy.

If you really believe you are superior to people who use silly things like "Math" to gain an edge, throw your money up on it. I'll go $50 on a H2H.

 
Mackin said:
fbelange said:
You guys are no better than the horseplayers who use computer programs and algorithms to handicap live animals.

Watching football and reading about football and interpreting football in your brain is all you need.

If you cant figure out that If you drop Marshall who costs 9000 and add a lesser player for 4500, you now have an extra 4500 to go upgrade a RB. Balance the risk/reward in your head and proceed accordingly.
Click to expand...
I didn't realize you were better at predicting outcomes than super computers that analyze every snap along with the input of experts who talk to coaches, players and statisticians who compute every last aspect of the game.

If only I was like you and Bradley Cooper in Limitless, then Fanduel would be so easy.

If you really believe you are superior to people who use silly things like "Math" to gain an edge, throw your money up on it. I'll go $50 on a H2H.
Click to expand...
She's just a harmless internet troll, don't get too worked up.

 
Haha true, must not have gotten enough sleep last night.

However, what do people think about Gates at this point? His price keeps dropping as he fails to hit the endzone, but the targets and opportunities appear to be there.

At 5400 I'm very tempted but I've been burned 2 weeks in a row now by confusing targets for production with Reed and then Gates (in that order I had Reed week 9 and Gates 10).

 
Any stats on Fitzgerald and who he favors in the passing game?

I saw Wright finished 7-79 and Indy is definitely capable of getting torched (see last two weeks).

 
inHimshallibe said:
eoMMan said:
I didn't see Shane Vereen listed last night when I looked. Is he showing up now? How much?
Click to expand...
Guess he won't be in this week.
Click to expand...
I submitted a question and got this response:

We receive our player listings from our stats provider Stats LLC. As soon as a player has been added to a team's active lineup, they are usually added by Stats immediately. We do not add players to already created contests (this would be unfair to those already entered) it sometimes takes a day or two (or with NFL a week) for players to appear in contests.

We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. Shane Vereen was originally removed because he was on the injured list. He will be available for future selections as soon as next week.

 
I've had $25 sitting in this account for 2 years now, and finally, I submitted my first lineup into a $1 50/50, 65K league. #### YEAH!!!

Newton

Charles

McCoy

V. Jackson

Torrey Smith

A. Jeffery

Gronk

Folk

Cincy

Tell me I'm an idiot. Just flew through this. Gonna try to read some of this thread tonight to pin down a bit of strategy.

 
Thanks for the feedback.

Initially I thought it would be possible to show the N best lineups very easily, but as I thought about it, that was wrong. The only way to make the program run in a manageable amount of time is to eliminate from consideration the players who cannot possibly be in the optimal lineup. So if Brees is $1000 and is projected to score 27.9 points, and if Stafford is $1000 and is projected to score 27.8 points, Stafford is eliminated from consideration. That's fine for determining the first-best optimal lineup, but it won't do for determining the second-best lineup because Stafford could very well be part of the second-best lineup.

So while it's easy for me to keep track of the 2nd-Nth best lineups that don't include Stafford or people like him, in order to get the true second-best lineup, I have to add Stafford back in to the pool. That's fine, but it means that finding the true second-best lineup means running the program again -- not simply keeping track of the 2nd-Nth best lineups from the first time I ran it.

So instead of running the program once for each salary cap and set of projections, I'm running it ten times -- once to find the best overall lineup, once to find the best lineup without the QB from the best overall lineup, once to find the best lineup without the RB1 from the best overall lineup . . . once to find the best lineup without the kicker from the best overall lineup, and once to find the best lineup without the defense from the best overall lineup.

So while it'd be nice to make the second list clickable as well (so that you could, for instance, click on Romo on the first list to generate a second list without him, and then click on Dez Bryant from the second list to generate a third list without either Romo or Bryant), that would involve running the program 82 times for each salary cap and set of projections. With four sets of projections, three salary caps, and multiple game times (1 pm only, late games, etc.), it balloons up into an unmanageable task.

Running the program takes only a few seconds per iteration, but a few seconds * 82 combinations * 4 projections * 3 salary caps * 3 game times = about 4 hours of processing time, which is not practical.

The better option, which I may have working next season, would be running the program on the client's browser instead of running it on my PC a zillion times and then uploading all the results. I don't know if the speed would be similar that way, but assuming it would be, you could input all the parameters (including customizing the weight of different projectors at different positions), click a button, wait two seconds, and you'd have whatever variation of the lineup you wanted. That's a job for javascript, though, and I'd really never used javascript, and remained completely unfamiliar with it, until literally three days ago. So to port my program over from Visual Basic to javascript probably isn't going to happen this season. The best I can do for now is to upload all the results and then use a total beginner's understanding of javascript to manipulate how they're shown (as I've done here). Next season, though . . .

In the meantime, for this season, I think I'm going to leave the On The Daily feature pretty much the way it is, get the second-option variations page prettied up a bit so that it's ready to go live, and then work on an interactive value chart as a tool for people to figure out their own lineups (instead of just passively viewing whatever lineups On The Daily spits out).

 
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BigJohn said:
I've had $25 sitting in this account for 2 years now, and finally, I submitted my first lineup into a $1 50/50, 65K league. #### YEAH!!!

Newton

Charles

McCoy

V. Jackson

Torrey Smith

A. Jeffery

Gronk

Folk

Cincy

Tell me I'm an idiot. Just flew through this. Gonna try to read some of this thread tonight to pin down a bit of strategy.
Click to expand...
I think you'll see when you read through that most everyone stays away from 65K lineups. You don't need that much cap room and it just becomes stud vs stud and pure luck, which won't beat the rake over time. But hey, good luck with your first buck!

 
Pantherz said:
BigJohn said:
I've had $25 sitting in this account for 2 years now, and finally, I submitted my first lineup into a $1 50/50, 65K league. #### YEAH!!!

Newton

Charles

McCoy

V. Jackson

Torrey Smith

A. Jeffery

Gronk

Folk

Cincy

Tell me I'm an idiot. Just flew through this. Gonna try to read some of this thread tonight to pin down a bit of strategy.
Click to expand...
I think you'll see when you read through that most everyone stays away from 65K lineups. You don't need that much cap room and it just becomes stud vs stud and pure luck, which won't beat the rake over time. But hey, good luck with your first buck!
Click to expand...
I usually play 1 or 2 65K contests a week if no other reason than to get away from the mafia (condia, mbomb, etc.....) that dominate every 60K contest known to man. My best winning percentage is in the 55K contests though.

 
What do people think about Dodd's latest blog post?

Mark my words. This will be the hardest week on FanDuel to win
Many people are doing MASSIVE research this week as the last 20 spots are on the line in the FFFC

https://www.fanduel.com/fffc

The best tournament players have won entries into this $200 qualifier. Others will elect to buy in. With so much at stake you have to assume many will work as hard as ever to come up with sweet lineups.

I fully expect a lot of these great teams to make their way into the 50/50s, headsup, and other tourneys as well. It could be a week to fade as I expect the competition to never be stronger.
Click to expand...
I guess the idea is that the last week to qualify results in "better tuned" lineups that result from more diligent research, and then those lineups spilling over into regular contest via the import/export feature. I think this relies on a few assumptions: (1) that more research leads to better lineups and not over-thinking, and (2) people actually seeking "better lineups" as opposed to more high risk-high reward lineups designed around the goal of snagging a few FFFC tourney winners. Those are both reasonable assumptions.

Of course, the contrary could be that more and more people are chasing those tourney winners w/automatic buy-in to the FFFC, more money is flowing to the site, and people field more quirky lineups with fewer common players. That would suggest this is the last week of 'fresh money' before the home stretch where its basically just veterans and no new casual players.

Anyone fading Week 11 as a result? I imagine that Dodds will wager only a fraction of his $80k this week, probably less than $8k if he thinks it really is that tough.

 
karmarooster said:
What do people think about Dodd's latest blog post?

Mark my words. This will be the hardest week on FanDuel to win
Many people are doing MASSIVE research this week as the last 20 spots are on the line in the FFFChttps://www.fanduel.com/fffc

The best tournament players have won entries into this $200 qualifier. Others will elect to buy in. With so much at stake you have to assume many will work as hard as ever to come up with sweet lineups.

I fully expect a lot of these great teams to make their way into the 50/50s, headsup, and other tourneys as well. It could be a week to fade as I expect the competition to never be stronger.
Click to expand...
I guess the idea is that the last week to qualify results in "better tuned" lineups that result from more diligent research, and then those lineups spilling over into regular contest via the import/export feature. I think this relies on a few assumptions: (1) that more research leads to better lineups and not over-thinking, and (2) people actually seeking "better lineups" as opposed to more high risk-high reward lineups designed around the goal of snagging a few FFFC tourney winners. Those are both reasonable assumptions.

Of course, the contrary could be that more and more people are chasing those tourney winners w/automatic buy-in to the FFFC, more money is flowing to the site, and people field more quirky lineups with fewer common players. That would suggest this is the last week of 'fresh money' before the home stretch where its basically just veterans and no new casual players.

Anyone fading Week 11 as a result? I imagine that Dodds will wager only a fraction of his $80k this week, probably less than $8k if he thinks it really is that tough.
Click to expand...
Sounds like a great week to start playing. <_<

 
karmarooster said:
What do people think about Dodd's latest blog post?

Mark my words. This will be the hardest week on FanDuel to win
Many people are doing MASSIVE research this week as the last 20 spots are on the line in the FFFChttps://www.fanduel.com/fffc

The best tournament players have won entries into this $200 qualifier. Others will elect to buy in. With so much at stake you have to assume many will work as hard as ever to come up with sweet lineups.

I fully expect a lot of these great teams to make their way into the 50/50s, headsup, and other tourneys as well. It could be a week to fade as I expect the competition to never be stronger.
Click to expand...
I guess the idea is that the last week to qualify results in "better tuned" lineups that result from more diligent research, and then those lineups spilling over into regular contest via the import/export feature. I think this relies on a few assumptions: (1) that more research leads to better lineups and not over-thinking, and (2) people actually seeking "better lineups" as opposed to more high risk-high reward lineups designed around the goal of snagging a few FFFC tourney winners. Those are both reasonable assumptions.

Of course, the contrary could be that more and more people are chasing those tourney winners w/automatic buy-in to the FFFC, more money is flowing to the site, and people field more quirky lineups with fewer common players. That would suggest this is the last week of 'fresh money' before the home stretch where its basically just veterans and no new casual players.

Anyone fading Week 11 as a result? I imagine that Dodds will wager only a fraction of his $80k this week, probably less than $8k if he thinks it really is that tough.
Click to expand...
Not sure which way is the way to go, but that post definitely caught my eye. I don't wager there the way some do (have turned $50 into $120) but it will definitely be worth watching.

 
The guys that are putting up thousands of dollars a week are likely doing massive research every week, so no change for them. Is there much difference between 20 vrs 30 hrs of research? Probably not as I believe the luck element of fantasy means at some point there are diminishing returns on extra time spent.

The "semi -casual" players who are investing enough to field a $200 entry might do more research, but what will that research yield? Is there a magic formula out there that tells what players will perform? Probably.....I am sure the prognosticators here have their own, but it is not common knowledge. If the "extra" research is just accessing the free CBS or ESPN projections that doesnt concern me much. Neither does a newb doing their own projections for the first time.

The casual players are unlikely to field a $200 team.

There will be a bump in competition, but not enough to impact things I think. How Sproles performs is more likely to influence the winning scores than anything, given that he is valued at $5100 he will probably be on half the rosters.

 
I only play $10 and under as a small hobby until I get a big win in a tourney to wager more, so I highly doubt I'll be too effected by it.

 
$60 K Roster

QB- Case Keenum

RB- LeSean McCoy

RB- Andre Ellington

WR- Andre Johnson

WR- Pierre Garcon

WR- Antonio Brown

TE- Gates

K- Novak

D- Cardinals

 
donkshow said:
I only play $10 and under as a small hobby until I get a big win in a tourney to wager more, so I highly doubt I'll be too effected by it.
Click to expand...
This is me. I'm pretty sure none of the people Dodds is talking about are going to venture into 1/2/5 dollar 50/50 games... so I'm going with my typical strategy.

 
Yeah, I'm not fading anything this week. The kind of lineup it takes to win a massive tournament isn't the same kind of lineup it takes to cash in a 50/50. The folks who know enough to carefully research and build a lineup for tournament success won't export that lineup to the contests I play in anyway. The folks who don't know any better, well, I'm not worried about them either.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
hines said:
what is "fading"?
Click to expand...
It means to "go against". We used this term a lot when I was a trader. Fading the trend means to go against the trend.
Click to expand...
so you guess who the big % plays will be and throw them out. Interesting. the big plays recently have been 50-60%, and they were more obvious than they are this week I'd think (Lacy/Hilton last week). I don't see any that obvious this week, and wouldn't think turning down 30-40% play that you actually think is valuable would be a +EV move

 
Repeat after me.....I will not play E. Manning ever again....no matter the match up.....no matter how low his price goes. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me numerous times, I'm just an idiot.

 
I realize this may be going against the popular opinion (As I did on Lacy 2 weeks ago... so maybe my opinion isn't worth much) but I am not sure how I feel about Keenum this week.

Eli Manning, yes Eli Manning is a better QB than Keenum. His receiving core (maybe with Johnson as an exception) is as good or better than Keenum's and their running back's (Tate and Brown) are very much similar. I look to Tate to be the more valuable player (if he stays healthy with the ribs). With the exception of Foles (who in my mind is proving he's actually legit) Oakland has held Eli Manning to 7, Roethlisberger to 11, and Alex Smith to 8.

Granted none of them have a guy with the physical gifts of Andre Johnson catching their passes, but why not just get Johnson rather than gambling on the QB who definitely is not better than the previous 3 mentioned that didn't put up much on this D.

Also in those games, all 3 of their running backs (Charles, Bell and Brown found the endzone, Charles got 2, beause he's charles, but Tate can be argued to be similar to the other 2, probably smaller, but similar).

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
I usually play 1 or 2 65K contests a week if no other reason than to get away from the mafia (condia, mbomb, etc.....) that dominate every 60K contest known to man. My best winning percentage is in the 55K contests though.
Click to expand...
I've found condia, mbomb, pepsi7, et al, in many of the $1, $2, and $5 contests that I've entered (both $60 and $65). And their lineups are not much different from anyone else who has researched a little. It's about volume to them IMO. Enter 1000 contests and if you win 55%, your win total rolls up more and more.

The trend I see is that these guys enter their contests early in the week. They are often the first few names on the lists when leagues come open. As a result, a lot of the leagues that open on Saturday, for instance, do not have these guys entered. At least that's what I've noticed.

 
Going a litte weird this week. 2 lineups in the same tourney. I just dont feel too hot about any lineups in particular this week. Hey, you never know.


Peyton Manning Matt Ryan
Andre Brown Andre Ellington
Brian Leonard Matt Forte
Calvin Johnson DeSean Jackson
Rueb Randle Brandon Marshall
Golden Tate Rueb Randle
Julius Thomas Antonie Gates
Tucker Tucker
NYG Def. NYG Def.

As for the Condia crap.... These guys are no better at picking players than anyone else. They just happen to have huge bankrolls and love fantasy football. I'd be surprised if he squeeks out an actual livable profit. And hes likely rich anyway, so who cares. Ive played him H2H a lot. And won more than lost.
 
By the way, after some quick math on the home screen just now .... Condia has to spend at least $100,000 every week gambling on Fantasy Sports.

IF someone can afford an awful week in which they lose 70 grand ... why are they even bothering with FanDuel? Something fishy there for sure...

 
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fbelange said:
By the way, after some quick math on the home screen just now .... Condia has to spend at least $100,000 every week gambling on Fantasy Sports.

IF someone can afford an awful week in which they lose 70 grand ... why are they even bothering with FanDuel? Something fishy there for sure...
Click to expand...
Real men don't use math.

 
My "statistical" best lineup this week, based on strictly the DEFENCE these guys are playing:

R. Wilson

A. Ellington

R. Bush

V. Jackson

R. Cooper

A. Johnson

G. Graham

N. Novak

Texans DST

Let's see how that plays out. Curious as this is the first time I'm going to try all statistics and no gut feeling, no hunches, etc. Just what good players are playing bad DEF based on their position.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fbelange said:
By the way, after some quick math on the home screen just now .... Condia has to spend at least $100,000 every week gambling on Fantasy Sports.

IF someone can afford an awful week in which they lose 70 grand ... why are they even bothering with FanDuel? Something fishy there for sure...
Click to expand...
why is it fishy? lots of us probably have been making say a 10% profit on our bankrolls, if he's making 10% on 100K every few weeks, he is making a good profit over the year

 
fbelange said:
Going a litte weird this week. 2 lineups in the same tourney. I just dont feel too hot about any lineups in particular this week. Hey, you never know.

Peyton Manning Matt Ryan

Andre Brown Andre Ellington

Brian Leonard Matt Forte

Calvin Johnson DeSean Jackson

Rueb Randle Brandon Marshall

Golden Tate Rueb Randle

Julius Thomas Antonie Gates

Tucker Tucker

NYG Def. NYG Def.

As for the Condia crap.... These guys are no better at picking players than anyone else. They just happen to have huge bankrolls and love fantasy football. I'd be surprised if he squeeks out an actual livable profit. And hes likely rich anyway, so who cares. Ive played him H2H a lot. And won more than lost.
Click to expand...
Everyone says this, but he rolls up 80K in winnings at draftstreet every week it seems. You think he has 100K worth of losing lineups each week as well?

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Yeah, I'm not fading anything this week. The kind of lineup it takes to win a massive tournament isn't the same kind of lineup it takes to cash in a 50/50. The folks who know enough to carefully research and build a lineup for tournament success won't export that lineup to the contests I play in anyway. The folks who don't know any better, well, I'm not worried about them either.
Click to expand...
Exactly, if people are entering these tournament teams into 50/50's or H2H's, it stands to reason that it makes these contests better to play, not worse. Most tournament teams tend to suck regardless of the amount of research because they need to take high risks to win.

 
hines said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
hines said:
what is "fading"?
Click to expand...
It means to "go against". We used this term a lot when I was a trader. Fading the trend means to go against the trend.
Click to expand...
so you guess who the big % plays will be and throw them out. Interesting. the big plays recently have been 50-60%, and they were more obvious than they are this week I'd think (Lacy/Hilton last week). I don't see any that obvious this week, and wouldn't think turning down 30-40% play that you actually think is valuable would be a +EV move
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion, although this would be an acceptable strategy IMO for large tournaments where you are trying to differentiate from the field.

 
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