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Free Agent RBs, lets try to figure this out (3 Viewers)

McFadden to the Bengals is very likely.
If I were a Bernard owner, I wouldn't be happy about this.

You've already got Hugh calling him his "little guy" and there's no indication that he'd be willing to turn the keys over to an undersized RB on a run-first offense. That's not to say his role would decrease, but I don't see it increasing either.

Combine that with Hugh's history with and his faith in McFadden that he's already expressed, and the fact that a healthy McFadden has already shown high end ability, and that would have RB-by-committee written all over it in order to keep both healthy.

A healthy McFadden is a more talented running back than Bernard, but it's anyone's guess as to how often he'd be healthy. I know Bernard is this board's favorite and all, but I think he's highly overrated around here and I think a lot of people who've been burned are severely underrating McFadden's impact wherever he signs. Especially in Cincinnati.
This

Bengals have a very good oline (that McFadden has never experienced).

Could be a good fit. However if I was a Dmac owner I would still want the Jets or Browns and his landing place
The terrible line that allowed Rashad Jennings to rush for 4.5 this year (McFadden 3.3)? Marcel Reese 4.6 last year (McFadden 3.3)?

Even as far back as 2009, Michael Bush was running for 4.8 and McFadden was running for 3.4. Granted there some impressive stretches in between there, but when you look at the overall body of work, there is NO indication to me that he's more talented than Gio. If you look at the combined stats for all the backs that played for Oakland while McFadden has been there, they all turn out to be roughly the same in terms of effectiveness. And they've all been better than the average for 2013 Cinci by the way. Gio has been solid, but of course BJGE has been atrocious overall.

McFadden seems to be the kind of back that needs to be healthy first of all (and good luck with that), but ALSO requires his usage to be exactly right. He's fairly clearly not the kind of back that will flourish in any good system. Either his injuries have sapped him of what made him good, or he just wasn't that good to begin with, but fell into a great situation for a stretch.

As a Gio owner, I would welcome McFadden to Cinci with open arms. The perfect backup.
I find it ironic that you went back to 2009 but skipped over 2010 and 2011. You know, the years when Hue Jackson was the Offensive Coordinator and then Head Coach of the Raiders. McFadden averaged 5.4 and 5.2 yards per carry and had his best and most healthy season to date in 2010. Granted, he got hurt in 2011, which has almost always been his calling card.

It's no secret that McFadden's performances have been inconsistent and he hasn't played well through injuries. It's had an effect on his numbers for sure. But for you to say he can't flourish in any good system is innaccurate, especially when he's already flourished in the system of the Offensive Coordinator who's in Cincinnati. A healthy McFadden would most definitely be a huge threat to Gio, and personally, I'd see a timeshare between them and give the edge to McFadden because his size and history with Hue... with all the normal injury caveats.

It may never even be relevant, but it really seems like a logical spot if he becomes a free agent as expected.
I admitted he had good production in between those years. My point was just that for well more than half of the time he has been in the league, his team-mates (backups) have produced better than he has, and some of them have produced very well overall. That doesn't indicate a "bad line" or a "bad scheme". That indicates bad play. He's had his moments, it's just that most of them were three or four years ago. Since then, other, mediocre backs have been considerably better than he has.

What I often like to look at are first down runs. That tends to take out a lot of the situational elements. Reese and Jennings combined for about the same number of 1st down carries as McFadden over the last two years, and their combined average has been MUCH higher than McFadden's over that period. Throughout much of that time, McFadden was ostensibly "healthy", and one of those years was a contract year. How does that guy hold an advantage over one of the most dynamic young RBs in the league with a very promising first year under his belt?

 
Kinda sounds like Donald Brown isn't expecting to be back with the Colts:

Donald Brown@Donaldb31 Jan 15
Was an honor and privilege to play for the Colts. An organization made up of phenomenal people. Will always be indebted to the horseshoe.

I would welcome a change of scenery for him.
wow, he must of been told what they were going to offer and turned it down.

The Colts are expected to make impending free agent Donald Brown a "reasonable offer."
The light finally flipped on for "Dammit Donald" in his fifth NFL season as he rushed 102 times for 537 yards (5.26 YPC) with six touchdowns. The Colts can't afford to overpay him though, as they've already given up the No. 26 overall pick in the draft for Trent Richardson. Vick Ballard (torn ACL) is also expected to return healthy. Brown is our No. 8 unrestricted free agent running back available.

 
Kinda sounds like Donald Brown isn't expecting to be back with the Colts:

Donald Brown@Donaldb31 Jan 15
Was an honor and privilege to play for the Colts. An organization made up of phenomenal people. Will always be indebted to the horseshoe.

I would welcome a change of scenery for him.
What do we think happens if the Colts sign Gerhart in FA? Wasn't he in Stanford when Luck was there? I know Hamilton wasn't the OC while Gerhart were there, but it seems like Gerhart fits what Hamilton wants a RB to be/do.
given the fact the colts traded a 1st rounder to get t rich... i'm pretty sure donald brown is not in their 2014 plans. they had no choice but to use him this season based on how poorly t-rich played... gerhart hasn't done enough in my eyes to justify some team giving him starter money.... the colts have vick ballard coming back as a suitable RB2 for them. gerhart to the colts doesnt make sense to me
I agree but if they are looking for a contingency plan it might make some sense. If Richardson looks as bad next season as he did this season, I don,t think it takes the Colts long to swallow their pride and pull the plug on him.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants make an offer. He would certainly be a Coughlin type player.

 
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I'd love Tate to ATL
i don't see that happening. Jackson is only in the 2nd year of his 3 year deal, I think.
I don't think SJax will be there much longer
I would expect him to be the starter coming into his 2nd year there. He was ineffective but then the o-line was mostly awful. Healthy Julio and Roddy means the passing game is back to normal. Jax is good for 20 touches a game.
They are saying they were happy with how he looked at the end of the year and that he'll be back but I won't be surprised if he's cut or faces stiff comp.

I thought he looked painfully slow last year, even in camp when he should have been fresh. I think he's done as an effective full time starter. At best he should be used in a role similar to how old LT was used with the Jets.

Big warning sign should have went off for people when SJAX said he wanted to leave the Rams because if he remained he would be facinga reduced role or being part of a RBBC. This is especially damning considering the Rams had not other proven runners at the time and Fisher has a history or riding RB's.

 
I'd love Tate to ATL
i don't see that happening. Jackson is only in the 2nd year of his 3 year deal, I think.
I don't think SJax will be there much longer
I would expect him to be the starter coming into his 2nd year there. He was ineffective but then the o-line was mostly awful. Healthy Julio and Roddy means the passing game is back to normal. Jax is good for 20 touches a game.
They are saying they were happy with how he looked at the end of the year and that he'll be back but I won't be surprised if he's cut or faces stiff comp.

I thought he looked painfully slow last year, even in camp when he should have been fresh. I think he's done as an effective full time starter. At best he should be used in a role similar to how old LT was used with the Jets.

Big warning sign should have went off for people when SJAX said he wanted to leave the Rams because if he remained he would be facinga reduced role or being part of a RBBC. This is especially damning considering the Rams had not other proven runners at the time and Fisher has a history or riding RB's.
I thought he looked terrible and theres no way they stick with him as a starter

 
A source who "actively worked the phones" on the first day of the NFL's free-agency negotiating period Saturday noted to Profootballtalk.com that "there's currently no market for running backs."

This really shouldn't be a surprise because running back is a replaceable position in the NFL, and the only above-replacement-level talents in this year's class are Ben Tate and Darren McFadden. Both have checkered injury track records. If Knowshon Moreno's price stays low enough, we could see him staying in Denver. It'd be a concern for Montee Ball's 2014 fantasy outlook.

The rules changes over the yrs have really hit the RB pocket books :(
 
Sounds like the 1st RB signing is coming

CSN Bay Area reports free agent Darren McFadden is expected to sign a one-year offer with the Raiders.

 
Sounds like the 1st RB signing is coming

CSN Bay Area reports free agent Darren McFadden is expected to sign a one-year offer with the Raiders.
What is wrong with them let him go!
He was absolutely dirt cheap -- $1.75 million with another $2.25 in "unlikely" incentives. It'll end up being half of what the Cardinals paid for Rashard Mendenhall last year. There is plenty of stuff to criticize Oakland about today -- but this isn't among them at all.

 
Sounds like the 1st RB signing is coming

CSN Bay Area reports free agent Darren McFadden is expected to sign a one-year offer with the Raiders.
What is wrong with them let him go!
He was absolutely dirt cheap -- $1.75 million with another $2.25 in "unlikely" incentives. It'll end up being half of what the Cardinals paid for Rashard Mendenhall last year. There is plenty of stuff to criticize Oakland about today -- but this isn't among them at all.
But it will be more per carry or yard.

 
Sounds like the 1st RB signing is coming

CSN Bay Area reports free agent Darren McFadden is expected to sign a one-year offer with the Raiders.
What is wrong with them let him go!
He was absolutely dirt cheap -- $1.75 million with another $2.25 in "unlikely" incentives. It'll end up being half of what the Cardinals paid for Rashard Mendenhall last year. There is plenty of stuff to criticize Oakland about today -- but this isn't among them at all.
I agree, 2 or 3 mil for a prove it deal.. I bet R Jennings got about the same amount a yr from the GMen. Good signing by Oak

 
Without knowing the Cap number of the Teams (rarely pay attention since most teams find ways around the cap) this is my best guess to where the FA RBs will go

...

Needs -

Cle - no NFL worthy RB there.

Oak - Both primary RBs are FAs - McFadden

SD - just can't count on Mathews

Jax - MJD is done and they need a fresh start - Gerhart

NYJ - Ivory was nice but they need something a little better to pair with him

NYG - Brown is injury prone and Wilson... well do a search if u want more discussion - Jennings

Buf - ageless F-Jax needs a backup plan quick

Atl - S-Jax will be cut and they should go after one of the cheaper 2nd or 3rd Tier FAs

Zona - need to replace Mendy and the last 2 drafted RBs have not worked out at all

StL - how comfortable are they, probably enough to not sign a FA but most likely draft

Mia - Miller was a little bit of a bust and Thomas is not starter material, but I think they focus on other positions

Hou - Foster in decline, if Tate walks they'll need another RB
Pretty good list so far.

Guys like Tate, Moreno and CJ had better be careful they don't get left without a seat when the music stops.

 
Without knowing the Cap number of the Teams (rarely pay attention since most teams find ways around the cap) this is my best guess to where the FA RBs will go

...

Needs -

Cle - no NFL worthy RB there.

Oak - Both primary RBs are FAs - McFadden

SD - just can't count on Mathews

Jax - MJD is done and they need a fresh start - Gerhart

NYJ - Ivory was nice but they need something a little better to pair with him

NYG - Brown is injury prone and Wilson... well do a search if u want more discussion - Jennings

Buf - ageless F-Jax needs a backup plan quick

Atl - S-Jax will be cut and they should go after one of the cheaper 2nd or 3rd Tier FAs

Zona - need to replace Mendy and the last 2 drafted RBs have not worked out at all

StL - how comfortable are they, probably enough to not sign a FA but most likely draft

Mia - Miller was a little bit of a bust and Thomas is not starter material, but I think they focus on other positions

Hou - Foster in decline, if Tate walks they'll need another RB
Pretty good list so far.

Guys like Tate, Moreno and CJ had better be careful they don't get left without a seat when the music stops.
With the market where it is I just don't see anyone valuing Moreno nearly as highly as the Broncos do as protector of Manning's neck. I feel strongly he will be back in Denver.

 
do you guys think frank gore sticks around for another season in SF? Given that lattimore is expected to be ready, they spent a 2nd rounder on lamichael james are there can they afford cap-wise to carry gore next year? I'm sure some of that defense is due for a raise as well. I dont think kendell hunter is a serious threat either.
Yes, his playstyle is infectious and his results cant easily be replaced.

 
Donald Brown to San Diego. Weird.
That is weird. Wonder what it means.
Almost makes me paranoid that something is up with Mathews. Either they're worried about some off-field stuff or they plan to let him walk next offseason and this is their insurance. I don't see why you'd pay Donald Brown that much with Mathews and Woodhead already on the roster. :shrug:

 
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Donald Brown to San Diego. Weird.
That is weird. Wonder what it means.
Almost makes me paranoid that something is up with Mathews. Either they're worried about some off-field stuff or they plan to let him walk next offseason and this is their insurance. I don't see why you'd pay Donald Brown that much with Mathews and Woodhead already on the roster. :shrug:
We had a too long discussion about Mathews in the Rankings thread a few days ago. I think they don't trust him in a lot of situations. Ironic that Dammit Donald is more trustworthy at this point. I think they use all 3 backs regularly, similar to NO, and Brown is Pierre Thomas.

 
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The McFadden, Gerhart and Brown signings are clear evidence that it's not a strong market for RBs - not that this is a new trend.. And the fact that it won't be a strong rookie draft for RBs, yet teams aren't paying much in free agency, provides more evidence of the depressed demand for RBs in today's NFL.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's probably going to screw up a lot more once fluent RB situations. If MJD stays in Jax, that's going to be a cluster with Gerhart. Same even more now in San Diego with Brown cutting into Matthews and Woodhead.

Teams you would think that aren't RB needy just may pick up guys on the cheap because they can. We still haven't seen Ben Tate land, although it looks less likely that he's going to get a big payday unless Cleveland pays up. And there's still serviceable guys like Andre Brown, Sproles (who will be traded), Pierre Thomas (probably cut) and probably others I'm forgetting.

 
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Man. In my salary cap league, my RFA choices on a RB needy team were Donald Brown, Andre Brown, and Fred Jackson. Was going with the first two due to Jackson's age, but may just have to keep Jackson now with both the aforementioned guys having worse situations now than just 1 day ago. :(

Wish I knew what the plans were for Brown in San Diego. He looked quite good in Indy this year, and they have a pretty nice passing offense over there in San Diego as well. But they also have a MUCH better (maybe two!) better RBs to compete against as well.

 
Donald Brown to San Diego. Weird.
That is weird. Wonder what it means.
Almost makes me paranoid that something is up with Mathews. Either they're worried about some off-field stuff or they plan to let him walk next offseason and this is their insurance. I don't see why you'd pay Donald Brown that much with Mathews and Woodhead already on the roster. :shrug:
It means that SD needs depth after mathews, in the Denver playoff game the ground game was dead without him, Woody and Ronnie couldnt get it done.

This FO/Coaching staff has no ties to Mathews, other than hes on the roster.

 
Brown's contract is about the same as Shonn Greene's last year, and I'd imagine he was signed for the same reason -- backup / complement this year and insurance / leverage for next year if Matthews wants too much money. Brown is a decent depth RB who played over his head last year.

 
The McFadden, Gerhart and Brown signings are clear evidence that it's not a strong market for RBs - not that this is a new trend.. And the fact that it won't be a strong rookie draft for RBs, yet teams aren't paying much in free agency, provides more evidence of the depressed demand for RBs in today's NFL.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's probably going to screw up a lot more once fluent RB situations. If MJD stays in Jax, that's going to be a cluster with Gerhart. Same even more now in San Diego with Brown cutting into Matthews and Woodhead.

Teams you would think that aren't RB needy just may pick up guys on the cheap because they can. We still haven't seen Ben Tate land, although it looks less likely that he's going to get a big payday unless Cleveland pays up. And there's still serviceable guys like Andre Brown, Sproles (who will be traded), Pierre Thomas (probably cut) and probably others I'm forgetting.
Is it just me or does the Gerhart situation mirror that of Peyton Hillis a few years back in which he signs a big contract and flames out badly?

 
The McFadden, Gerhart and Brown signings are clear evidence that it's not a strong market for RBs - not that this is a new trend.. And the fact that it won't be a strong rookie draft for RBs, yet teams aren't paying much in free agency, provides more evidence of the depressed demand for RBs in today's NFL.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's probably going to screw up a lot more once fluent RB situations. If MJD stays in Jax, that's going to be a cluster with Gerhart. Same even more now in San Diego with Brown cutting into Matthews and Woodhead.

Teams you would think that aren't RB needy just may pick up guys on the cheap because they can. We still haven't seen Ben Tate land, although it looks less likely that he's going to get a big payday unless Cleveland pays up. And there's still serviceable guys like Andre Brown, Sproles (who will be traded), Pierre Thomas (probably cut) and probably others I'm forgetting.
Is it just me or does the Gerhart situation mirror that of Peyton Hillis a few years back in which he signs a big contract and flames out badly?
All white contracts look the same.

 
Brown's contract is about the same as Shonn Greene's last year, and I'd imagine he was signed for the same reason -- backup / complement this year and insurance / leverage for next year if Matthews wants too much money. Brown is a decent depth RB who played over his head last year.
I agree - Matthews is the better back all around, but (whether it's just perception or reality) Matthews has been labled as "injury prone" and if San Diego wants to continue to play ball control on ofense they need solid depth at the position. As you said, Brown can be the veteran back playing ahead of a rookie if Matthews walks next offseason.

It's not great news for Matthews' owners, but it's probably not as bad as it seems at first blush either.

 
The McFadden, Gerhart and Brown signings are clear evidence that it's not a strong market for RBs - not that this is a new trend.. And the fact that it won't be a strong rookie draft for RBs, yet teams aren't paying much in free agency, provides more evidence of the depressed demand for RBs in today's NFL.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's probably going to screw up a lot more once fluent RB situations. If MJD stays in Jax, that's going to be a cluster with Gerhart. Same even more now in San Diego with Brown cutting into Matthews and Woodhead.

Teams you would think that aren't RB needy just may pick up guys on the cheap because they can. We still haven't seen Ben Tate land, although it looks less likely that he's going to get a big payday unless Cleveland pays up. And there's still serviceable guys like Andre Brown, Sproles (who will be traded), Pierre Thomas (probably cut) and probably others I'm forgetting.
Is it just me or does the Gerhart situation mirror that of Peyton Hillis a few years back in which he signs a big contract and flames out badly?
It doesn't seem anything like the Peyton Hillis situation at all.

 
Keep in mind too that Matthews is in the last year of his contract. SD gets a guy who fits their operating style for multiple years and a good fall back should Matthews leave in FA or if the market is like this year drive his price down some to stay with them.

 
The McFadden, Gerhart and Brown signings are clear evidence that it's not a strong market for RBs - not that this is a new trend.. And the fact that it won't be a strong rookie draft for RBs, yet teams aren't paying much in free agency, provides more evidence of the depressed demand for RBs in today's NFL.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's probably going to screw up a lot more once fluent RB situations. If MJD stays in Jax, that's going to be a cluster with Gerhart. Same even more now in San Diego with Brown cutting into Matthews and Woodhead.

Teams you would think that aren't RB needy just may pick up guys on the cheap because they can. We still haven't seen Ben Tate land, although it looks less likely that he's going to get a big payday unless Cleveland pays up. And there's still serviceable guys like Andre Brown, Sproles (who will be traded), Pierre Thomas (probably cut) and probably others I'm forgetting.
Is it just me or does the Gerhart situation mirror that of Peyton Hillis a few years back in which he signs a big contract and flames out badly?
It doesn't seem anything like the Peyton Hillis situation at all.
If we're talking about the Hillis to Browns situation, I don't recall it being a big contract. In any case, Hillis had a monster year for the Browns on a terrible team - enough to get him on the Madden cover. What happened after year still remains a mystery despite his clear disdain from his ex-Brown teammates.

In any event, I don't think Gerhart was signed to be the guy. Even if MJD is kicked to the curb, IMO Gerhart will just be a piece of an RBBC puzzle.

 
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Keep in mind too that Matthews is in the last year of his contract. SD gets a guy who fits their operating style for multiple years and a good fall back should Matthews leave in FA or if the market is like this year drive his price down some to stay with them.
Brown is no spring chicken himself and has never shown that he can carry the load despite his strong second half last year. If Matthews leaves next year, my guess is that McCoy gets himself a new RB toy.

 
Donald Brown to San Diego. Weird.
That is weird. Wonder what it means.
Almost makes me paranoid that something is up with Mathews. Either they're worried about some off-field stuff or they plan to let him walk next offseason and this is their insurance. I don't see why you'd pay Donald Brown that much with Mathews and Woodhead already on the roster. :shrug:
We had a too long discussion about Mathews in the Rankings thread a few days ago. I think they don't trust him in a lot of situations. Ironic that Dammit Donald is more trustworthy at this point. I think they use all 3 backs regularly, similar to NO, and Brown is Pierre Thomas.
Not sure which part is more obviously wrong. They clearly didn't trust Mathews to begin the season, but his receptions and goal line touches (and touches in general) all increased as the season went on. They went from not trusting him to leaning heavily on him.

And no, this will not resemble NO at all. Sure, they've got a guy in Woodhead who functions as a poor man's Sproles but that's where it ends. The Saints haven't had a rusher with more than 172 carries since Deuce in 2006. Mathews just had 285. I seriously doubt they drastically change their offense to implement the Donald Brown weapon.

However, I think it was a good signing. Brown was underrated going into last year and is a guy who can fill in for Woodhead or Mathews should an injury strike. His pass protection is what has been questioned in the past. Not sure where he stands now, but I doubt he's any worse than Woodhead in that department. I don't think the signing has much in the way of 2015 implications, but it was good for depth. They probably overpaid, but the GM clearly has a thing for his former player (Telesco worked for the Colts when Brown was drafted, I think).

 
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Not sure which part is more obviously wrong. They clearly didn't trust Mathews to begin the season, but his receptions and goal line touches (and touches in general) all increased as the season went on. They went from not trusting him to leaning heavily on him.
If everything was obvious they wouldn't have signed Brown. They didn't trust Mathews in the passing game the whole year. In games they were behind, Mathews was on the bench a lot, and Ronnie Brown was in there to block. I understand your viewpoint (and have had plenty of people tell me I'm wrong), but believe Mathews is definitely on the way out and this signing is more than just depth. You can find depth in the draft or off the street. I believe SD wants to be a passing team and they think Mathews is best served as a 2 down runner. Mathews' high volume games were in games they were ahead big at halftime (like NYG) or games they tried to control the clock (DEN win). He will continue to get high volume in those types of games, but that won't be their MO (and SD's not good enough to make that their MO).

 
Without knowing the Cap number of the Teams (rarely pay attention since most teams find ways around the cap) this is my best guess to where the FA RBs will go

...

Needs -

Cle - no NFL worthy RB there - Tate

Oak - Both primary RBs are FAs - McFadden

SD - just can't count on Mathews - Don Brown

Jax - MJD is done and they need a fresh start - Gerhart

NYJ - Ivory was nice but they need something a little better to pair with him

NYG - Brown is injury prone and Wilson... well do a search if u want more discussion - Jennings

Buf - ageless F-Jax needs a backup plan quick

Atl - S-Jax will be cut and they should go after one of the cheaper 2nd or 3rd Tier FAs

Zona - need to replace Mendy and the last 2 drafted RBs have not worked out at all

StL - how comfortable are they, probably enough to not sign a FA but most likely draft

Mia - Miller was a little bit of a bust and Thomas is not starter material, but I think they focus on other positions - Moreno

Hou - Foster in decline, if Tate walks they'll need another RB
Pretty good list so far.

Guys like Tate, Moreno and CJ had better be careful they don't get left without a seat when the music stops.
Tate, Moreno gone...

Chris Johnson, MJD & Blount still hanging out there.

 
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