Politics and War in Ukraine (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

How do you know Putin isn't stopping here?

 

[timschochet]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

 

[snogger]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

How do you know Putin isn't stopping here?

If you were Putin would you

He just invaded Cremia and took it back for Russia with barely a slap on the wrist.

Right now he thinks he has the rest of the world over a barrel and is just waiting for the right time to take another valuable part of Ukraine.

All he has to do is do the same thing he did in regards to Crimea.. wait for some unrest to happen, proclaim Russian people in that area are threatened and send troops in to "protect" them.. Once there, show the Russians in the streets celebrating their "independence" and then have a city vote to become part of Russia.

I truly believe he will test the West once again.. could be in one week, one month, 3 months, but no way is he done.

IMO, the only way to prevent it is for the West to come down with true sanctions, not just sanctions on some individuals.

 

[otello]

Snogger makes a good point. Also, the 2016 election just got much more interesting.

 

[Sinn Fein]

“The president wanted me to come personally to make it clear what you already know that under Article 5 under the NATO treaty, we will respond. We will respond to any aggression against a NATO ally."

- Joe Biden

What he left out was: "But, you have to ask nicely."

 

[jonessed]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

Concerning 3, above, what's next on Putin's menu?

Eastern Ukraine. He has already moved to destabilize it much the same way he destabilized Crimea before the invasion.

It doesn't make sense to take Crimea and not Easter Ukraine. It supplies water and energy to Crimea, it holds the bulk of Ukrainean industry, and he can use the same reasoning to justify the move.

 

[mr roboto]

What splits East and Wesy Ukraine. The Dnieper River? That cuts right through Kiev.

 

[Slapdash]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

 

[SacramentoBob]

“The president wanted me to come personally to make it clear what you already know that under Article 5 under the NATO treaty, we will respond. We will respond to any aggression against a NATO ally."

- Joe Biden

What he left out was: "But, you have to ask nicely."

"We will respond by writing Russia a stern letter that we don't approve of their actions".

 

[DocHolliday]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

How do you know Putin isn't stopping here?

If you were Putin would you

He just invaded Cremia and took it back for Russia with barely a slap on the wrist.

Right now he thinks he has the rest of the world over a barrel and is just waiting for the right time to take another valuable part of Ukraine.

All he has to do is do the same thing he did in regards to Crimea.. wait for some unrest to happen, proclaim Russian people in that area are threatened and send troops in to "protect" them.. Once there, show the Russians in the streets celebrating their "independence" and then have a city vote to become part of Russia.

I truly believe he will test the West once again.. could be in one week, one month, 3 months, but no way is he done.

IMO, the only way to prevent it is for the West to come down with true sanctions, not just sanctions on some individuals.

None of us know if Putin is actually going to try to take more of Ukraine. It does seem likely though. Even if you do not think Putin is going to try to take more of Ukraine, he cannot be allowed to take over countries without any serious penalties. The US and Europe must put serious sanctions in place to hurt Russia's struggling economy.

The worst thing that the world can do is nothing.

Military force is not the answer.

 

[timschochet]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

 

[Schlzm]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

Please see my second line item. I guess I should have made number 4 the US instead of we?Schlzm

 

[timschochet]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

How do you know Putin isn't stopping here?

If you were Putin would you He just invaded Cremia and took it back for Russia with barely a slap on the wrist.

Right now he thinks he has the rest of the world over a barrel and is just waiting for the right time to take another valuable part of Ukraine.

All he has to do is do the same thing he did in regards to Crimea.. wait for some unrest to happen, proclaim Russian people in that area are threatened and send troops in to "protect" them.. Once there, show the Russians in the streets celebrating their "independence" and then have a city vote to become part of Russia.

I truly believe he will test the West once again.. could be in one week, one month, 3 months, but no way is he done.

IMO, the only way to prevent it is for the West to come down with true sanctions, not just sanctions on some individuals.

None of us know if Putin is actually going to try to take more of Ukraine. It does seem likely though. Even if you do not think Putin is going to try to take more of Ukraine, he cannot be allowed to take over countries without any serious penalties. The US and Europe must put serious sanctions in place to hurt Russia's struggling economy. The worst thing that the world can do is nothing.

Military force is not the answer.

Yes let's punish Russia's struggling economy because that's sure to make them more pacifistic. Because countries with bad economies have a long history of turning away from militarism and autocratic rule...

 

[Slapdash]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

 

[timschochet]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned. More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

 

[StrikeS2k]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

 

[Run It Up]

Best case scenario, MH370 is found in Crimea.

 

[Schlzm]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned. More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

 

[jonessed]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

Please see my second line item. I guess I should have made number 4 the US instead of we?Schlzm

No. We need to help Western Europe put itself in a position where sanctions are possible. I don't think that would be seen as weak.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

 

[Schlzm]

I'm only going to make a few points here before I call it a night.

1: Russian military is already present in the majority of Eastern Ukraine.

2: This entire thing begins and ends with Chancellor Merkel.

3: Putin is not done rebuilding the strategic lines needed for a renewed empire.

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

5: China plays sideline until at least the midterms if not the presidential election.

6: Pakistani/Iranian douchebaggery incoming.

Schlzm

I don't believe this is true. Western Europe would really be putting themselves out there by instituting economic sanctions. Russias economy is not in a good place. Real sanctions would be devastating to them. They would also be hard on Western Europe though, which is why it would be a pretty good indication that they are serious.Putin isn't stopping here so we might as well get the ball rolling now. He's going to expand his borders until the US and Western Europe make a move to stop him. It can definitely be done economically. We just have to be willing to back up Western Europe with increased energy exports to get them to move.

Please see my second line item. I guess I should have made number 4 the US instead of we?Schlzm

No. We need to help Western Europe put itself in a position where sanctions are possible. I don't think that would be seen as weak.

I'll amend my statement that enacting what Saints proposes above would be a very viable and powerful option. Schlzm

 

[Slapdash]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned.More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

Good thing Moscow doesn't have a history of controlling those territories or anything.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned.More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

Good thing Moscow doesn't have a history of controlling those territories or anything.

That's a pretty poor justification for anything foreign policy related.

They're not just imperialistic, it's an actual empire, the old kind, empires are wrong and guess what they don't last forever. Or maybe the UK should get its Raj back too.

 

[Schlzm]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned.More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

Good thing Moscow doesn't have a history of controlling those territories or anything.

Iknowright! That would be a total game changing oh wait :( Schlzm

 

[Schlzm]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned.More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

Good thing Moscow doesn't have a history of controlling those territories or anything.

That's a pretty poor justification for anything foreign policy related.

They're not just imperialistic, it's an actual empire, the old kind, empires are wrong and guess what they don't last forever. Or maybe the UK should get its Raj back too.

I think the UK should get its New World colonies back!Schlzm

 

[Sinn Fein]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned.More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

Good thing Moscow doesn't have a history of controlling those territories or anything.

That's a pretty poor justification for anything foreign policy related.

They're not just imperialistic, it's an actual empire, the old kind, empires are wrong and guess what they don't last forever. Or maybe the UK should get its Raj back too.

I think the UK should get its New World colonies back!Schlzm

Maybe Italy would like to re-establish the Roman Empire.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

No but he's been busy, he just did a set with Zach Galifanaikis that apparently did well so maybe he will get to this soon enough.

 

[Fennis]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I work with several Russians. These are people who left Russia for the US and all have high paying jobs (at least 2 are US citizens I am not sure about #3). I have asked each of them about the situation and they all think Russia is in the right. None of them like Putin. However, nationalism runs strong. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I have also spoke to a Ukrainian guy who has a very different perspective. [/SIZE]

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

This was the nightmare that Western policymakers hoped to avoid when the Soviet Union collapsed.

There are two ways to talk about a Russian person or thing in the Russian language. One way, “Rossisskii,” refers to Russian citizens and the Russian state. Someone who is ethnically Chechen, Tatar, or Ukrainian can be “Rossisskii” if they carry a Russian passport and live on Russian territory.

Up until now that is how Russian President Vladimir Putin has always referred to the Russian people. Even the rather aggressive pro-Putin Russian youth movement of a few years back, Nashi (or “ours”) — with its summer camps, mass calisthenics rallies, and ugly jeering at opposition politicians — was always careful to use the word “Rossisskii.” While some critics like Valeria Novodvorskaya portrayed Nashi as if it were some kind of updated version of the Hitler youth, the group in fact never took on an ethnic slant.

That all changed on Tuesday. In his Kremlin speech to the two houses of the Russian parliament, Putin made a fateful choice. Instead of sticking to the word “Rossisskii,” he slipped into using “Russkii,” the way to refer in the Russian language to someone who is ethnically Russian. Putin said, “Crimea is primordial “Russkaya” land, and Sevastapol is a “Russkii” city.” He went on to say, “Kiev is the mother of “Russkie” cities,” in a reference to the ancient city of Kievan Rus’.

When speaking of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin added, “Millions of ‘Russkii’ went to sleep in one country and woke up in another, instantly finding themselves ethnic minorities in former Soviet republics, and the ‘Russkii’ people became one of the largest, if not the largest, divided nation in the world.”

Putin thereby signaled a crucial turning point in his regime. He is no longer simply a Russian statist, an old KGB man who wants to recapture Soviet glory, as Brookings analysts Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy argued in their fascinating 2013 biography. Instead Putin has become a Russian ethnic nationalist.

Putin may be tempted to go the way of Slobodan Milosevic, the communist leader of the Yugoslavian region of Serbia who, as Chip Gagnon contends in his award-winning book, suddenly jumped on the nationalist bandwagon to ensure a political future for himself as the Cold War wound down. In Putin’s case, the cheering crowds who greeted him at the Kremlin Tuesday night must be a relief after last year’s widespread coverage of corruption associated with the Sochi Olympics.

Nationalist bloodshed might not stop with Ukraine. Russia is a multiethnic country that has witnessed disturbing incidents of nationalist violence over the past decade, including a huge ethnic riot in a suburb of Moscow in the fall where police appeared to side with ethnic Russians. There are also significant ethnic Russian minority populations in most of the post-Soviet region. Already Russian ethnic activists in the Transdniestria region of neighboring Moldova — a de facto state because of the Russian forces that have guarded its borders with the rest of Moldova since 1992 — have asked to join Russia, too.

Russia and its relationship with the outside world may have permanently changed. The leader of a state that wields a massive strategic nuclear arsenal, controls a significant portion of the world’s petroleum and other raw materials, and holds a veto in the U.N. Security Council, has just revealed his willingness to use force on behalf of ethnic nationalism.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/19/vladimir-putin-ethnic-russian-nationalist/

 

[shader]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

I'm gonna differ with you there.

Interesting background article here, obviously lots of hurdles (mostly within the current administration) though it doesn't really talk about costs.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12/natural-gas-exports-101-beyond-ukraine/

I don't know what the relative cost is exactly, but I think heard on CNN or BBC that the EU was paying something like 8 times what we are. Somewhere in there there is room for added distribution cost. I will add that driving down the cost of gas just from the option of buying cheaper gas, even if just a little will drive down the price of Russian gas and Russian profits. Best case scenario is their market share would be driven way down.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

Or any other Muslim? Fairly sure they know something.

 

[RBM]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

Tim said he's done everything right.

 

[shader]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

I'm gonna differ with you there.

Interesting background article here, obviously lots of hurdles (mostly within the current administration) though it doesn't really talk about costs.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12/natural-gas-exports-101-beyond-ukraine/

I don't know what the relative cost is exactly, but I think heard on CNN or BBC that the EU was paying something like 8 times what we are. Somewhere in there there is room for added distribution cost. I will add that driving down the cost of gas just from the option of buying cheaper gas, even if just a little will drive down the price of Russian gas and Russian profits. Best case scenario is their market share would be driven way down.

So a good and proper response to Russia, and one that will really hit them where it hurts....is to PLAN to build a bunch of export facilities 3-5 years in the future?

There are a TON of obstacles to building an infrastructure to export a large amount of natural gas to Europe. It's not something that can be done quick enough to have any sort of an effect on what Russia is currently doing today.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

I'm gonna differ with you there.

Interesting background article here, obviously lots of hurdles (mostly within the current administration) though it doesn't really talk about costs.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12/natural-gas-exports-101-beyond-ukraine/

I don't know what the relative cost is exactly, but I think heard on CNN or BBC that the EU was paying something like 8 times what we are. Somewhere in there there is room for added distribution cost. I will add that driving down the cost of gas just from the option of buying cheaper gas, even if just a little will drive down the price of Russian gas and Russian profits. Best case scenario is their market share would be driven way down.

So a good and proper response to Russia, and one that will really hit them where it hurts....is to PLAN to build a bunch of export facilities 3-5 years in the future?

There are a TON of obstacles to building an infrastructure to export a large amount of natural gas to Europe. It's not something that can be done quick enough to have any sort of an effect on what Russia is currently doing today.

Yes. For starters, it's already begun and not only that but the expansion of facilities in the future affects prices now.

I agree that it takes time, so start now. This is the Great Game II and it will last years.

ETA: Cost of LNG in USA, $3.01; Spain is $15+; northern EU $10.

And it doesn't just have to be the USA that delivers gas, we can also build pipelines that deliver it from the Mideast through Turkey, Iberia and across and through the Mediterranean and Black Sea. There's more than one way to skin a cat but you can also be sure the gas lobbyists aren't pimping Congress about this because they will decide it's too costly in the end; they want it because there's profit there.

 

[timschochet]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

He wasn't. Russia is not a geopolitical threat.

 

[timschochet]

Regarding natural gas production, there are environmental concerns. There are also questions about how it would affect the international marketplace for us to compete with Russia. We need to be very cautious about this.

 

[timschochet]

I was ripped here (justifiably) for predicting there would be no annexation, but some of the other responses in this thread recently strike me as far more silly than my prediction. We're weak unless we use military force? Putin won't stop until we get together to stop him?

What makes you think he is going to stop with Crimea if all the West does it wag their fingers at him?

There's certainly going to be further border disputes. As I pointed out earlier, Russia's borders are new, so this is to be expected. Just as there have been skirmishes between Pakistan and India ever since the two nations were formed, we can expect there will be further skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine. But that is a far cry from this fear that some people seem to have that unless we do SOMETHING, Russia's going to swallow Ukraine, and then Poland, and then... that's just nonsense, IMO. This isn't WWII and Putin doesn't represent that kind of threat.

You're just repeating your assertion. Tell me why you think this. Annexing foreign territory is not normal and expected behavior.

Look, from what I understand they've been arguing over this Crimea thing for years, long before Putin. And they also have other border dispute arguments they have been making, so we can anticipate there may be future actions of a similar nature. But they haven't argued that Ikraine is part of Russia, eastern Europe is part of Russia, etc. If they did, I'd start to become concerned.More importantly, if they start to attempt to conquer lands of people who don't want to be under Russian rule (like the Ukranians) that's going to cost Russia more lives and treasure than will ever be gained, even if we did nothing to stop it. Annexation of the Crimea is a bloodless move with plenty of economic gain for Russia. But moving further east costs much more than it gains. There's a reason why, after we conquered and occupied Mexico City, we decided to take only California and not the whole country.

The entirety of Eastern Ukraine is just as "Russian" as the Crimean peninsula, so I guess we can write that area off now. Next would be a full Belarussian incorporation, majority consider themselves Russian there as well. Estonia is a walkoff considering no one really cared when the blockade happened and it would provide additional ports. Just because it doesn't make geopolitical or economic sense to you doesn't mean there aren't drivers. Also these regions don't exactly have a history of rising up against invaders.Schlzm

Good thing Moscow doesn't have a history of controlling those territories or anything.

That's a pretty poor justification for anything foreign policy related.

They're not just imperialistic, it's an actual empire, the old kind, empires are wrong and guess what they don't last forever. Or maybe the UK should get its Raj back too.

The world would certainly be a safer place, and millions more people would be alive, if the British had never given up the Raj.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Regarding natural gas production, there are environmental concerns. There are also questions about how it would affect the international marketplace for us to compete with Russia. We need to be very cautious about this.

Affecting the international marketplace is exactly the point. We would affect it to Russia's detriment.

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

He wasn't. Russia is not a geopolitical threat.

I am going to give you just one example why you are wrong: Syria. Russia, long before all this started, has been assiduously backing Syria. Not just arms, which it has done for decades, but politically, basically throwing itself out in front of the US truck that was preparing to unload all over it.

And Iran. While the USA has been pushing for Iran to drop its nuke program, guess who has been blocking these efforts even to the point of actually building nuke plants for Iran? Yep, Russia.

This might seem pretty odd for a country that is 100% anti fundamentalist-muslim. But guess what flows out the Mideast? -> Gas. If Syria fell pipelines could be built from the Persian Gulf region through Syria, through Turkey to Europe. And right now Iran has to send its gas via pipeline through Russia to Europe. So as a consequence Turkey has been promoting anti-Syrian rebels while Russia pays off Assad to block pipelines and pays off Iran to send its gas through them while further buttressing Syria with aid (instead of promoting the fundie muslims who seek to bring it down).

 

[timschochet]

First off any long term attack on Russia's economy will only make them more warlike, more aggressive, more desperate, and more our enemy. Yes we have the power to hurt Russia severely by cutting into its markets, but it would be extremely unwise for us to do so, which is why we don't. We and the world benefit from an economically strong Russia.

Second, Russia plays their little games just as China does. But they don't seek our destruction. They benefit from an economically strong USA.

We need to learn to live with each other. Nobody's going anywhere.

 

[jonessed]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

He wasn't. Russia is not a geopolitical threat.

 

[jonessed]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

I'm gonna differ with you there.

Interesting background article here, obviously lots of hurdles (mostly within the current administration) though it doesn't really talk about costs.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12/natural-gas-exports-101-beyond-ukraine/

I don't know what the relative cost is exactly, but I think heard on CNN or BBC that the EU was paying something like 8 times what we are. Somewhere in there there is room for added distribution cost. I will add that driving down the cost of gas just from the option of buying cheaper gas, even if just a little will drive down the price of Russian gas and Russian profits. Best case scenario is their market share would be driven way down.

So a good and proper response to Russia, and one that will really hit them where it hurts....is to PLAN to build a bunch of export facilities 3-5 years in the future?

There are a TON of obstacles to building an infrastructure to export a large amount of natural gas to Europe. It's not something that can be done quick enough to have any sort of an effect on what Russia is currently doing today.

2-3 years. Most of the plans and requests for export facilities have been sitting with the administration for that long already. We should have started on this years ago.

Just because we have had our head in the sand doesn't mean we should continue to keep it there.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

First off any long term attack on Russia's economy will only make them more warlike, more aggressive, more desperate, and more our enemy. Yes we have the power to hurt Russia severely by cutting into its markets, but it would be extremely unwise for us to do so, which is why we don't. We and the world benefit from an economically strong Russia.

Second, Russia plays their little games just as China does. But they don't seek our destruction. They benefit from an economically strong USA.

We need to learn to live with each other. Nobody's going anywhere.

Why is selling gas to a common customer an "attack on Russia's economy? We're all capitalists here, now, right?

Russia cannot be economically strong until it is democratic and respects its neighbors' democracies.

 

[shader]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

I'm gonna differ with you there.

Interesting background article here, obviously lots of hurdles (mostly within the current administration) though it doesn't really talk about costs.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12/natural-gas-exports-101-beyond-ukraine/

I don't know what the relative cost is exactly, but I think heard on CNN or BBC that the EU was paying something like 8 times what we are. Somewhere in there there is room for added distribution cost. I will add that driving down the cost of gas just from the option of buying cheaper gas, even if just a little will drive down the price of Russian gas and Russian profits. Best case scenario is their market share would be driven way down.

So a good and proper response to Russia, and one that will really hit them where it hurts....is to PLAN to build a bunch of export facilities 3-5 years in the future?

There are a TON of obstacles to building an infrastructure to export a large amount of natural gas to Europe. It's not something that can be done quick enough to have any sort of an effect on what Russia is currently doing today.

2-3 years. Most of the plans and requests for export facilities have been sitting with the administration for that long already. We should have started on this years ago.

Just because we have had our head in the sand doesn't mean we should continue to keep it there.

I'm not saying that it should or shouldn't be done. Just that it is so far in the future (I think the 2-3 years is wildly optimistic) that it isn't going to have much of an impact if it is used as "sanctions" against Russia.

 

[Schlzm]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

He wasn't. Russia is not a geopolitical threat.

Tim is the absolute worst foreign policy president in the history of history. Schlzm

 

[TheIronSheik]

Putin - "I will take over this area and call it part of Russia! What do you have to say about that, Mr. Obama?"

Obama - "I'm taking Michigan St. over Louisville."

 

[Slapdash]

Has Obama admitted he was wrong about this yet?

He wasn't. Russia is not a geopolitical threat.

 

[jonessed]

About this:

4: Any response we make outside direct military action/movement will be viewed as weak and toothless by most of the world.

There is something we can do.

One is open the flood of gas production from our country - start supplying as much of Europe and even Ukraine to the hilt and as cheaply as possible, because we, the USA, are the Arabia of natural gas.

Another thing we can do to Russia is Marshall Plan their asses. We need to get together with our EU allies and start bringing that business and aid into Ukraine and Moldova asap. We need to bolster the Baltic states and all our Central European friends. Hell even call Belarus and offer them a deal they can't refuse. If Putin wants to go back to playing economic one-upmanship let's do that because we will drive them back past the Urals doing that.

Frankly maybe the USA has been waiting for just this kind of challenge. Unfortunately I don't think the current administration can even speak this language. Obama laughed at Romney when he described Russia a geopolitical threat.

You can't currently ship natural gas cheaply to Europe from the US. Sorry, the infrastructure doesn't exist.

I'm gonna differ with you there.

Interesting background article here, obviously lots of hurdles (mostly within the current administration) though it doesn't really talk about costs.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12/natural-gas-exports-101-beyond-ukraine/

I don't know what the relative cost is exactly, but I think heard on CNN or BBC that the EU was paying something like 8 times what we are. Somewhere in there there is room for added distribution cost. I will add that driving down the cost of gas just from the option of buying cheaper gas, even if just a little will drive down the price of Russian gas and Russian profits. Best case scenario is their market share would be driven way down.

So a good and proper response to Russia, and one that will really hit them where it hurts....is to PLAN to build a bunch of export facilities 3-5 years in the future?

There are a TON of obstacles to building an infrastructure to export a large amount of natural gas to Europe. It's not something that can be done quick enough to have any sort of an effect on what Russia is currently doing today.

2-3 years. Most of the plans and requests for export facilities have been sitting with the administration for that long already. We should have started on this years ago.Just because we have had our head in the sand doesn't mean we should continue to keep it there.

I'm not saying that it should or shouldn't be done. Just that it is so far in the future (I think the 2-3 years is wildly optimistic) that it isn't going to have much of an impact if it is used as "sanctions" against Russia.

It gives us leverage to prevent them from doing it again.Approved facilities can be built in a few years. We have the ability to completely supplant Russia's entire export capacity to Europe by simply approving plans that have been sitting with the Department of Energy for years already.

I doubt we want to do that, but we our in the middle of a massive natural gas boom. We would have no problem supplying the EU if we chose to do so.

 

[Parrothead]

Putin - "I will take over this area and call it part of Russia! What do you have to say about that, Mr. Obama?"

Obama - "I'm taking Michigan St. over Louisville."