Montee Ball (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.

If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:

a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.

B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

 

[steveski]

Montee Ball leaps into top ten in latest mock draft

Given that Demarco Murray is ranke ahead of Ball in this mock and Doug Martin is ranked 10 spots lower, I'm going to pass on buying this.

Montee Ball being taken before Calvin Johnson. Ok. I'm no fantasy expert but every time I hear Michael Fabiano talk about fantasy football, I feel like a genius.

Going that high sounds crazy and i wouldn't do it, but Ball is going to be a consensus 2nd round fantasy pick later in the summer, possibly even late 1st.

If he looks like the clear starter once preseason hits he'll be one of the most hyped players in FF.

Sounds good to me!

 

[False Start]

Montee Ball leaps into top ten in latest mock draft

Given that Demarco Murray is ranke ahead of Ball in this mock and Doug Martin is ranked 10 spots lower, I'm going to pass on buying this.

Montee Ball being taken before Calvin Johnson. Ok. I'm no fantasy expert but every time I hear Michael Fabiano talk about fantasy football, I feel like a genius.

Going that high sounds crazy and i wouldn't do it, but Ball is going to be a consensus 2nd round fantasy pick later in the summer, possibly even late 1st.

If he looks like the clear starter once preseason hits he'll be one of the most hyped players in FF.

Sounds good to me!

Ball over Calvin is a joke. I like Ball but come on.

 

[duaneok66]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.

If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:

a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.

B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

truly an outstanding post.

 

[Gawain]

So, is this guy a top 10 dynasty running back now?

People seem to have Bell at the bottom of the top-10 and I think I'd take Ball over him.

Getting first crack at the job is really nice. It's a plum job, at least for the time being. There's a big difference between getting first crack at the job and having it locked down, though. Montee Ball's getting first crack. Le'Veon Bell already has it locked down.

With that said, I had Ball at 14 in my last ranking update, making me one of the highest staffers on him. Recent news out of Dove Valley doesn't change my opinion on him, because this is more or less what I expected to be hearing out of Dove Valley. Fox and Elway have never been Knowshon Moreno fans. I would much prefer Montee Ball to a guy like Zac Stacy, Ryan Mathews, Andre Ellington, or Shane Vereen, to list four guys who are hanging out around his ballpark. I think he's head and shoulders above those guys. But in my league where I own Montee Ball, I would give him in a heartbeat for Le'Veon Bell... and in my league where I own Bell, it would take a substantial extra piece to get me to move him for Montee Ball.

I am not sure that Bell enjoys that much more security than Ball at the moment.

Pittsburgh has been kicking the tires on several FA RBs if I remember correctly. Whether this is an indication that Pitt isn't happy with their depth or with their RB production is anyone's guess, but the RB position in Pitt appears much more fluid than the RB position in Denver. If a guy like MJD ends up signing, people will reevaluate their position on Bell. If Pitt drafts a RB to replace a Redman/Jones/Dwyer, that RB is going to be viewed as a threat to steal carries. One of the prime reasons that Bell appears to be secure is because there's almost 0 competition available. It's almost certain that more will be added.

Meanwhile, while you speak of Ball having first crack, we've seen the first cracks of fellas like Hillman and Anderson and both have failed to be Liberty Bellesque. The competition in Denver is known. Both Anderson and Hillman have had their Shark Pool proponents. But, both have gotten at least marginal opportunity and failed to run with it. Meanwhile, Ball had at least a mediocre output for his situation, totaling 700 YFS and 4 TDs. It is a far cry from Bell's 1250 YFS and 8TDs, but to act like Ball was completely untested is misrepresenting his position.

Bell's name has more cache due to his age and his 2013 output, but when I end up ranking, I have a feeling that the two will be running neck-and-neck (confirmation bias is strong with this one). If Ball could be added for RB 20ish prices, I'd be all for it.

PIT's RB depth chart is Bell.... then some guy named Alvester Alexander.

Redman/Jones/Dwyer were not brought back.

They need a #2 and #3 RB on the squad. They'll likely be drafting somebody.

That's what my point was. Denver is rolling with Hillman/Anderson, while Pitt is linked to Seastrunk. I'll take known mediocrity over an unknown rookie (though I admit I was hasty in saying that Anderson has gotten a featured back opportunity.)

If Pitt was bringing in a Derrick Ward/James Starks type, I'd feel more secure than if they were taking a guy some argue is the top rookie RB.

I'm curious if SSOG has revised his valuation of the Ball/Bell duo. I think that Ball will surpass Bell's ADP as we get closer to the season, at least in redraft.

 

[bonesman]

So, is this guy a top 10 dynasty running back now?

People seem to have Bell at the bottom of the top-10 and I think I'd take Ball over him.

Getting first crack at the job is really nice. It's a plum job, at least for the time being. There's a big difference between getting first crack at the job and having it locked down, though. Montee Ball's getting first crack. Le'Veon Bell already has it locked down.

With that said, I had Ball at 14 in my last ranking update, making me one of the highest staffers on him. Recent news out of Dove Valley doesn't change my opinion on him, because this is more or less what I expected to be hearing out of Dove Valley. Fox and Elway have never been Knowshon Moreno fans. I would much prefer Montee Ball to a guy like Zac Stacy, Ryan Mathews, Andre Ellington, or Shane Vereen, to list four guys who are hanging out around his ballpark. I think he's head and shoulders above those guys. But in my league where I own Montee Ball, I would give him in a heartbeat for Le'Veon Bell... and in my league where I own Bell, it would take a substantial extra piece to get me to move him for Montee Ball.

I am not sure that Bell enjoys that much more security than Ball at the moment.

Pittsburgh has been kicking the tires on several FA RBs if I remember correctly. Whether this is an indication that Pitt isn't happy with their depth or with their RB production is anyone's guess, but the RB position in Pitt appears much more fluid than the RB position in Denver. If a guy like MJD ends up signing, people will reevaluate their position on Bell. If Pitt drafts a RB to replace a Redman/Jones/Dwyer, that RB is going to be viewed as a threat to steal carries. One of the prime reasons that Bell appears to be secure is because there's almost 0 competition available. It's almost certain that more will be added.

Meanwhile, while you speak of Ball having first crack, we've seen the first cracks of fellas like Hillman and Anderson and both have failed to be Liberty Bellesque. The competition in Denver is known. Both Anderson and Hillman have had their Shark Pool proponents. But, both have gotten at least marginal opportunity and failed to run with it. Meanwhile, Ball had at least a mediocre output for his situation, totaling 700 YFS and 4 TDs. It is a far cry from Bell's 1250 YFS and 8TDs, but to act like Ball was completely untested is misrepresenting his position.

Bell's name has more cache due to his age and his 2013 output, but when I end up ranking, I have a feeling that the two will be running neck-and-neck (confirmation bias is strong with this one). If Ball could be added for RB 20ish prices, I'd be all for it.

PIT's RB depth chart is Bell.... then some guy named Alvester Alexander.

Redman/Jones/Dwyer were not brought back.

They need a #2 and #3 RB on the squad. They'll likely be drafting somebody.

That's what my point was. Denver is rolling with Hillman/Anderson, while Pitt is linked to Seastrunk. I'll take known mediocrity over an unknown rookie (though I admit I was hasty in saying that Anderson has gotten a featured back opportunity.)

If Pitt was bringing in a Derrick Ward/James Starks type, I'd feel more secure than if they were taking a guy some argue is the top rookie RB.

I'm curious if SSOG has revised his valuation of the Ball/Bell duo. I think that Ball will surpass Bell's ADP as we get closer to the season, at least in redraft.

Pitt signed Blount

 

[Gawain]

So, is this guy a top 10 dynasty running back now?

People seem to have Bell at the bottom of the top-10 and I think I'd take Ball over him.

Getting first crack at the job is really nice. It's a plum job, at least for the time being. There's a big difference between getting first crack at the job and having it locked down, though. Montee Ball's getting first crack. Le'Veon Bell already has it locked down.

With that said, I had Ball at 14 in my last ranking update, making me one of the highest staffers on him. Recent news out of Dove Valley doesn't change my opinion on him, because this is more or less what I expected to be hearing out of Dove Valley. Fox and Elway have never been Knowshon Moreno fans. I would much prefer Montee Ball to a guy like Zac Stacy, Ryan Mathews, Andre Ellington, or Shane Vereen, to list four guys who are hanging out around his ballpark. I think he's head and shoulders above those guys. But in my league where I own Montee Ball, I would give him in a heartbeat for Le'Veon Bell... and in my league where I own Bell, it would take a substantial extra piece to get me to move him for Montee Ball.

I am not sure that Bell enjoys that much more security than Ball at the moment.

Pittsburgh has been kicking the tires on several FA RBs if I remember correctly. Whether this is an indication that Pitt isn't happy with their depth or with their RB production is anyone's guess, but the RB position in Pitt appears much more fluid than the RB position in Denver. If a guy like MJD ends up signing, people will reevaluate their position on Bell. If Pitt drafts a RB to replace a Redman/Jones/Dwyer, that RB is going to be viewed as a threat to steal carries. One of the prime reasons that Bell appears to be secure is because there's almost 0 competition available. It's almost certain that more will be added.

Meanwhile, while you speak of Ball having first crack, we've seen the first cracks of fellas like Hillman and Anderson and both have failed to be Liberty Bellesque. The competition in Denver is known. Both Anderson and Hillman have had their Shark Pool proponents. But, both have gotten at least marginal opportunity and failed to run with it. Meanwhile, Ball had at least a mediocre output for his situation, totaling 700 YFS and 4 TDs. It is a far cry from Bell's 1250 YFS and 8TDs, but to act like Ball was completely untested is misrepresenting his position.

Bell's name has more cache due to his age and his 2013 output, but when I end up ranking, I have a feeling that the two will be running neck-and-neck (confirmation bias is strong with this one). If Ball could be added for RB 20ish prices, I'd be all for it.

PIT's RB depth chart is Bell.... then some guy named Alvester Alexander.

Redman/Jones/Dwyer were not brought back.

They need a #2 and #3 RB on the squad. They'll likely be drafting somebody.

That's what my point was. Denver is rolling with Hillman/Anderson, while Pitt is linked to Seastrunk. I'll take known mediocrity over an unknown rookie (though I admit I was hasty in saying that Anderson has gotten a featured back opportunity.)

If Pitt was bringing in a Derrick Ward/James Starks type, I'd feel more secure than if they were taking a guy some argue is the top rookie RB.

I'm curious if SSOG has revised his valuation of the Ball/Bell duo. I think that Ball will surpass Bell's ADP as we get closer to the season, at least in redraft.

Pitt signed Blount

Yar. If you read the Bell thread it seems there's two distinct lines of thought on the Blount signing as well.

Blount and Alvin Anderson would be one thing. No RB gets 95% of the carries. However Blount and a Day 2 RB would be a great cause of concern.

Not trying to derail this thread though.

In dynasty, I think that Ball's value has risen to 1.03. I'd take Watkins/Evans over him, but I'd prefer him to any RB in the class right now. 2nd round pick, with a clear vote of confidence from the powers that be. In redraft, he's going to end up in the back couple slots of the top-10, barring disaster.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.

If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:

a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.

B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

You make some good points.

On point C, I'm not sure I'd say Moreno is Ball's floor, either. This year. But one reason that they may not have featured Ball as a rookie is they didn't trust him yet in pass protection and to not fumble the ball. Letting Moreno walk, though, would seem to point to them being comfortable he is ready to take over.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

You make some good points.

On point C, I'm not sure I'd say Moreno is Ball's floor, either. This year. But one reason that they may not have featured Ball as a rookie is they didn't trust him yet in pass protection and to not fumble the ball. Letting Moreno walk, though, would seem to point to them being comfortable he is ready to take over.

Shutout is irrationally anti-Ball. It's obviously personal for him and I'm not quite sure why that is. If Ball gets 60% Moreno's workload that he left by going to MIA and add that to last year's work, it would give him 265 carries next season, and that would still leave 100 carries for Anderson and 55 for Hillman. That gives Ball 63% of the rushing work. That seems entirely reasonable and easy achievable barring injury.

That would also give him 36 receptions to add to the 20 he had last year. Let's temper that a little and say he gets 50 catches. That still would leave 42 for other RBs.

In the last half of last season, when Ball was incorporated much more into the offense, Ball averaged 5.45 ypc in the last 9 games - that's when he really was integrated into the DEN O as a regular. It's unreasonable to expect that as a RB1 even though he was getting short yardage work in his workload then. But let's not go too far in being conservative - teams are still going to sell out to stop the pass, and those additional carries he picks up from Moreno were 80% of the time against 6 or fewer in the box. Ball isn't Moreno and he isn't going to average 4.3 ypc in favorable conditions. Let's say for argument that he averaged 4.91 ypc - that's a 10% production drop off in rushing even though he's likely to have more optimal conditions to run against. Keep his ypr at 6.56 ypr.

So you get these numbers:

246 carries for 1301 yds and 10 TDs

50 catches for 329 yds and 2 TDs.

Those seem like reasonable numbers, and would put Moreno's 1586 total yds and 13 TDs under Ball's production - and we seem a bit on the conservative side here. Based upon last year and how teams are likely to defend DEN this year, that ypc and ypr are likely a bit low.

Plus, Elway is already making noises that DEN will likely run a bit more and that certainly fits Fox's MO. If anyone can see the value of a strong running game on leading to a championship, it's Elway. So the rushing work might be a bit light also.

So those projections seem a bit on the conservative side to me. What do you think?

 

[higgins]

Shutout is irrationally anti-Ball.

........

So those projections seem a bit on the conservative side to me. What do you think?

Agreed

I see things your way...

 

[hxperson]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.

If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

Shutout makes some decent points that justify tempering our expectations regarding Ball, but I don't understand this statement at all. Ball had 1 fumble in the second half and playoffs (116 total touches), and the same amount since game 3. How is that a guy who was "still coughing the ball up" despite being fresh late in the season?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

You make some good points.

On point C, I'm not sure I'd say Moreno is Ball's floor, either. This year. But one reason that they may not have featured Ball as a rookie is they didn't trust him yet in pass protection and to not fumble the ball. Letting Moreno walk, though, would seem to point to them being comfortable he is ready to take over.

Shutout is irrationally anti-Ball. It's obviously personal for him and I'm not quite sure why that is. If Ball gets 60% Moreno's workload that he left by going to MIA and add that to last year's work, it would give him 265 carries next season, and that would still leave 100 carries for Anderson and 55 for Hillman. That gives Ball 63% of the rushing work. That seems entirely reasonable and easy achievable barring injury.

That would also give him 36 receptions to add to the 20 he had last year. Let's temper that a little and say he gets 50 catches. That still would leave 42 for other RBs.

In the last half of last season, when Ball was incorporated much more into the offense, Ball averaged 5.45 ypc in the last 9 games - that's when he really was integrated into the DEN O as a regular. It's unreasonable to expect that as a RB1 even though he was getting short yardage work in his workload then. But let's not go too far in being conservative - teams are still going to sell out to stop the pass, and those additional carries he picks up from Moreno were 80% of the time against 6 or fewer in the box. Ball isn't Moreno and he isn't going to average 4.3 ypc in favorable conditions. Let's say for argument that he averaged 4.91 ypc - that's a 10% production drop off in rushing even though he's likely to have more optimal conditions to run against. Keep his ypr at 6.56 ypr.

So you get these numbers:

246 carries for 1301 yds and 10 TDs

50 catches for 329 yds and 2 TDs.

Those seem like reasonable numbers, and would put Moreno's 1586 total yds and 13 TDs under Ball's production - and we seem a bit on the conservative side here. Based upon last year and how teams are likely to defend DEN this year, that ypc and ypr are likely a bit low.

Plus, Elway is already making noises that DEN will likely run a bit more and that certainly fits Fox's MO. If anyone can see the value of a strong running game on leading to a championship, it's Elway. So the rushing work might be a bit light also.

So those projections seem a bit on the conservative side to me. What do you think?

The big issue I'd have with your projections would be that they're based on last year's numbers. Denver's offense as a whole is hugely likely to regress significantly from the record shattering pace they put up last year -- those type of seasons are pretty rare even for a team as loaded on offense as the Broncos.

I haven't done any projections yet, but come summer I'll likely be decreasing Denver across the board pretty significantly. IMO they'll still probably be the best offense in the NFL -- just not the best offense ever. Not sure how that's going to play out for the individual guys in FF yet.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

You make some good points.

On point C, I'm not sure I'd say Moreno is Ball's floor, either. This year. But one reason that they may not have featured Ball as a rookie is they didn't trust him yet in pass protection and to not fumble the ball. Letting Moreno walk, though, would seem to point to them being comfortable he is ready to take over.

Shutout is irrationally anti-Ball. It's obviously personal for him and I'm not quite sure why that is. If Ball gets 60% Moreno's workload that he left by going to MIA and add that to last year's work, it would give him 265 carries next season, and that would still leave 100 carries for Anderson and 55 for Hillman. That gives Ball 63% of the rushing work. That seems entirely reasonable and easy achievable barring injury.

That would also give him 36 receptions to add to the 20 he had last year. Let's temper that a little and say he gets 50 catches. That still would leave 42 for other RBs.

In the last half of last season, when Ball was incorporated much more into the offense, Ball averaged 5.45 ypc in the last 9 games - that's when he really was integrated into the DEN O as a regular. It's unreasonable to expect that as a RB1 even though he was getting short yardage work in his workload then. But let's not go too far in being conservative - teams are still going to sell out to stop the pass, and those additional carries he picks up from Moreno were 80% of the time against 6 or fewer in the box. Ball isn't Moreno and he isn't going to average 4.3 ypc in favorable conditions. Let's say for argument that he averaged 4.91 ypc - that's a 10% production drop off in rushing even though he's likely to have more optimal conditions to run against. Keep his ypr at 6.56 ypr.

So you get these numbers:

246 carries for 1301 yds and 10 TDs

50 catches for 329 yds and 2 TDs.

Those seem like reasonable numbers, and would put Moreno's 1586 total yds and 13 TDs under Ball's production - and we seem a bit on the conservative side here. Based upon last year and how teams are likely to defend DEN this year, that ypc and ypr are likely a bit low.

Plus, Elway is already making noises that DEN will likely run a bit more and that certainly fits Fox's MO. If anyone can see the value of a strong running game on leading to a championship, it's Elway. So the rushing work might be a bit light also.

So those projections seem a bit on the conservative side to me. What do you think?

The big issue I'd have with your projections would be that they're based on last year's numbers. Denver's offense as a whole is hugely likely to regress significantly from the record shattering pace they put up last year -- those type of seasons are pretty rare even for a team as loaded on offense as the Broncos.I haven't done any projections yet, but come summer I'll likely be decreasing Denver across the board pretty significantly. IMO they'll still probably be the best offense in the NFL -- just not the best offense ever. Not sure how that's going to play out for the individual guys in FF yet.

So you don't think they can match their #11 ranking in rushing attempts or #15 in rushing yds this coming season? I agree that the passing O drops off - I know, rocket science projecting a drop off from a NFL record, right? - but if DEN does drop off some in the passing game, that may actually enhance the running game. I also expect the D to play better than its #22 ranking.

So my projections for Ball would allow for the drop in plays/ passing attempts/ passing yds

 

[Bob Magaw]

Outstanding projections, Billy.

I think a few things.

1 - It is very important that Ball take care of business in pass protection and holding on to the ball. As you noted, he did fine in the latter department once he settled in. How did he look in pass pro, I know you follow the team far more closely.

2 - I agree that your take can be reconciled with CdL's question. Even if the offense takes a step back overall, if there is a shift and uptick in the ground game in the pass/run ratio, 2013 Moreno-like numbers could be in play. IMO, Ball is an underappreciated finisher (tied or beat Barry Sanders NCAA record season rushing TD record), which could come in handy with Decker moving on, who was an excellent red zone weapon.

3 - Floor is a tough word, because he could get injured in game one and do nothing. But qualifying it with a barring injury, of course, I agree, and in fact think his ceiling is higher.

4 - I think the perception among some is that he is slow and not that quick. Late in the season (playoffs) when he made the 40-50 yard run from near their own goal line, he flashed deceptive explosiveness, and I thought that was a run Moreno wouldn't have been capable of making. He is a patient, instinctive runner, reads blocks well, has very powerful legs, runs with great pad level and has outstanding contact balance. While not twitched out, his feet quickness in the hole is nifty enough to do a lot of damage.

5 - I think the biggest issue for him (by his own admission) was the complexity of the offense, which had his head spinning and reeling early in the year. I think he is pretty smart, though, a hard worker, and he loves football and wants to be great. Once he stopped thinking and was able to play faster, we saw what he is capable of later in the season.

He did have a better YPC than Moreno, and I get how some of that could be situational, but just eye-balling them, I found Ball a more talented pure runner than Moreno (who was valuable for his complete, well rounded game, and being outstanding in pass pro and catching the ball out of the backfield - Ball looked competent in the latter when I saw him given the opportunity, he looked reasonably athletic). Since, as you noted, teams will continue to sell out to stop the pass as long as Manning can play and has those WRs, I see no reason that Ball's superior YPC can't continue.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Outstanding projections, Billy.

I think a few things.

1 - It is very important that Ball take care of business in pass protection and holding on to the ball. As you noted, he did fine in the latter department once he settled in. How did he look in pass pro, I know you follow the team far more closely.

I'd like to hear from others who got a chance to see him regularly from week 8 forward.

From what I saw he looked solid - he was willing, made good contact and maintained - and I don't remember him chopping at all - and knew where to line up and where to find the rushers when Manning changed the play.

It's discouraging reading some of the opinion above that evaluates Ball based upon PS and very early regular season struggles while simultaneously and IMO intentionally ignoring the vast improvements in the second half of the season. It was pretty clear that he was doing a whole lot of consideration early on and lacked conviction or surety, just as it seemed pretty clear that the light bulb went on on the middle of the year and the game slowed way down for him.

Again, unless I'm seeing something others aren't his improvement was dramatic and I'm not sure what the incentive is to ignore that and judge him exclusively from his struggles early on.

 

[Noah Davis]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.

If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:

a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.

B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

Point C is a little off base....you left out the John Fox impact. Example: Fox continued to play DeSean Foster over DeAngelo Williams because Fox does not believe in giving starting gigs to rookies.

Other than that...great post.

 

[Shutout]

It's a wait and see because we don't have a time machine. I believe though that Elway believes in Ball and that means the "ball" is, well in Ball's court.

I liked what I saw from Ball last year. The Bronco's offense and protections and working with Manning would be a incredible challenge. A rookie season is tough enough, but with Manning in that offense is a tough assignment. I don't think there has been a lot of discussions about the difficulty that offense is with Manning and all that comes with having Manning behind center. He handled it very well as the season went on.

I really liked what he accomplished in college and he showed me he is a hard runner and a real nose for the end zone. He had a pretty good offensive line, but scored and showed up in big games. I think he is a very good break out prospect in 2014.

It's kind of hard to have a discussion about the "difficulty of the offense" when you have players like Welker who walk into the system and flourish, or guys like Moreno and Julius who, for all purposes, was their first season with Manning and they flourished also.

RB is the easiest position in the NFL to come in and play right away outside of a kicker or punter so when you look at what they can or can not do on the NFL level, you look at it harder and with more scrutiny. When that RB can't do basic RB things well at the NFL level (ball security, pass protection), THAT is what leads to the criticism. And its not even to say he doesn't do them "well", but he didn't do them half as well as Moreno, a guy who 5 months earlier, most people said can't do much well himself. THey questioned if he would make the team.

So how do you defend that or make a case for it? By taking the word of the GM? Well, it comes from a position of authority but guys at the top ARE wrong sometimes. How can we go on the GM/pres.'s word now when we heard last year that they believed they drafted the best RB in the class? They didn't. Lacy showed that by his play while Bell showed it by his lack of play. Coaches and GMs say SO much when games aren't being won and lost. Its nice to have a public vote of confidence but at some point you wtill have to step on a field and show you can do it and that hasn't happened yet.

 

[Shutout]

I'll say this. FF running backs score a lot of points when they have the opportunity to score points. Montee Ball's stock has to rise based off the opportunity alone.

Denver and Elway know what they want to do and letting Moreno walk says volumes to me about what they believe. Ball is in for a significant amount of carries. Opportunity equals points in this offense.

This assumes Ball is the guy that ends up with those opportunities and THAT is where people are assuming A LOT here.

If Ball gets Manning blown up or does like he did last year and fumbles, there are no opportunities when you aren't the lionshare guy on the field. And that's a point people need to remember. Moreno got to those numbers while absolutely dominating the workload. In the first 2/3 of the season he was on the field nearly ecery single play. That's not likely going to be the case this year unless Ball comes back as a vastly improved back.

The Broncos were very overt in keeping Anderson on the active roster despite every scenario suggesting they needed to move him to the PS and free up room. There is a reason for that. They see something and have him in mind for something he has shown them in the boring days of practice or film room or somewhere. It is not an accident.

Now, come the draft, it gets even murkier if they do draft a rb. That certainly can't be a boost of confidence for Ball if that happens but it's simple: The people invested in Ball are going to spin it their way until the wheels fall off but I have seen this before. Just like last year when the talk was all Ball and Moreno might get cut and hey what about this Hillman guy, I said a million times back then" this makes no sense. Moreno is the only guy on this team that can do what the Broncos will scheme to do and do the most important things well. And now, I just still don't see that in Ball.

What I saw in Ball was a fresh back that had the advantage of playing about 1/3 of the season, playing in very advantageous situations where no one was keying on him, and he was still coughing the ball up and missing assignments. That's not going to cut it.

But anyway, I don't own any of these players so I'm not going to get into it as much as I did in Adam's thread last year. I'll just leave it as "Remember Cj Anderson and definitely hedge your bets if you are a Ball owner this year".

It is an assumption, but a pretty good one considering that:

a) he was a second round pick last year

b) he was second on the depth chart all last year

c) he played well last year

d) the Coach and GM have expressed confidence in Ball since allowing Moreno to walk

As for fumbling, that is a red herring. Anyone who saw the guy in college knows he is not a fumbler.

Pass blocking was something he DID have to work on last year, which is the main reason Moreno started instead of him. That's not uncommon for rookies. But by the end of the season he was blocking well.

He could get injured and that would change everything. But short of that, I don't see anyway he doesn't meet or exceed Moreno's production of 2013.

A)Ron Dayne was a 1st round pick. I don't see the point. The NFL is littered with players who have failed or exceeded their draft spot. The draft spot is almost meaningless.

B)Honestly, saying your 2nd on the depth chart when Ronnie Hillman is 3rd and Moreno is 1st is like saying the AMC pacer is ranked 2nd between the BMW 3- series and the Yugo. Yeah, that sounds right but there is more to it.

C)People can argue semantics on what is good or what is not but he didn't blow anyone away last year. If he had or had shown that he was special enought to put up Moreno's numbers as his floor as you suggest, then they would have featured him. They didn't .

D) any coach you speak to will say supportive things about their players in March and April..Just last week, the Dolphins said Lamar Miller was their man and does all three things a RB needs to do and does it well. Then they went out and signed Moreno.

Threads like these are fun because people have such extreme opinions but its kind of silly to be penciling in Ball to have Moreno numbers as his floor. THe Broncos' season last year was lightning in a bottle. Those types of seasons RARELY duplicate.

Everyone can pick their side but this one, for me, is one that CLEARLY needs to be proven before believed.

Point C is a little off base....you left out the John Fox impact. Example: Fox continued to play DeSean Foster over DeAngelo Williams because Fox does not believe in giving starting gigs to rookies.

Other than that...great post.

Yeah, Fox has had that impact over the years but that was a lifetime ago and while it still probably exists on some level, you have to think that its a different deal now. These days he is standing across the way from arguably the best QB ever who is in the twilight of his career and needs protection for an obvious reason. I'm not saying it ever happened but I think even the HC would listen if Peyton came to him and said "Moreno is more important to me than Ball".

Ball still has to "do" something more than what he has to get anywhere close to what people are penciling him in for. It's not a given. But a lot of people are basically awarding "greatness by association" and that's far from a given. It's like me going to a party with three NBA players. Yes, I got my foot in the door of the VIP but it doesn't mean I automatically get the benefits they do. I still have to "do" something to reap the rewards.

 

[Bob Magaw]

It's a wait and see because we don't have a time machine. I believe though that Elway believes in Ball and that means the "ball" is, well in Ball's court.

I liked what I saw from Ball last year. The Bronco's offense and protections and working with Manning would be a incredible challenge. A rookie season is tough enough, but with Manning in that offense is a tough assignment. I don't think there has been a lot of discussions about the difficulty that offense is with Manning and all that comes with having Manning behind center. He handled it very well as the season went on.

I really liked what he accomplished in college and he showed me he is a hard runner and a real nose for the end zone. He had a pretty good offensive line, but scored and showed up in big games. I think he is a very good break out prospect in 2014.

It's kind of hard to have a discussion about the "difficulty of the offense" when you have players like Welker who walk into the system and flourish, or guys like Moreno and Julius who, for all purposes, was their first season with Manning and they flourished also. RB is the easiest position in the NFL to come in and play right away outside of a kicker or punter so when you look at what they can or can not do on the NFL level, you look at it harder and with more scrutiny. When that RB can't do basic RB things well at the NFL level (ball security, pass protection), THAT is what leads to the criticism. And its not even to say he doesn't do them "well", but he didn't do them half as well as Moreno, a guy who 5 months earlier, most people said can't do much well himself. THey questioned if he would make the team.

So how do you defend that or make a case for it? By taking the word of the GM? Well, it comes from a position of authority but guys at the top ARE wrong sometimes. How can we go on the GM/pres.'s word now when we heard last year that they believed they drafted the best RB in the class? They didn't. Lacy showed that by his play while Bell showed it by his lack of play. Coaches and GMs say SO much when games aren't being won and lost. Its nice to have a public vote of confidence but at some point you wtill have to step on a field and show you can do it and that hasn't happened yet.

Welker, really?

You see no difference between a rookie and a 10 year vet? He has dealt with pro play books. A lot of teams have the same plays, just use different terminology. Big difference between a vet doing that and a rookie mastering a phone book directory-sized play book for the first time.

As to RB being an instictive position, he isn't just playing RB in a vacuum, but for Peyton Manning. He probably changes the play (sometimes several times) at the LOS as much if not more than any QB in NFL history. That is a much different prospect, and I don't think as easy as you are making it out to be. There is also a difference between being able to apply what has been learned in practice when you are getting reps and being the primary ball carrier, and used in a reserve role (he averaged about 7.5 carries a game as a rookie, not very conducive to getting into a rhythm).

I don't see people saying he was great all season, the question is, how improved was he in the second half of the season. He had one fumble in the last 13 games. He had two fumbles in college with a heavy workload. Is that not doing basic RB things well? Your other positions may or may not have merit, but this isn't credible and hard to even take seriously. Why continue to beat this dead horse when it has already been corrected upthread?

How many sacks did he give up?

If DEN had excessive concerns in that department, and could have retained Moreno inexpensively, why not do that. Hard to not infer they don't have the concerns you are drumming up.

You are jumping around a lot and playing fast and loose, switchey changey with some of the subjects addressed here. You bring up Moreno almost being cut in the context of Ball not holding on to the ball (already disproved) or blocking even half as well (most rookie RBs aren't great in pass pro, BTW). That is a red herring. Moreno was on the outs because he hadn't done much in his career AS A RUNNER. He wasn't on the outs because he couldn't block well. This is another argument that is hard to take at face value. You seem to be trying very hard to find reasons to not like him, to the point of stretching things to fit your take, whether they are in fact the case or not (again, why make such a big deal out of 1 fumble in 13 games, pointed out at least by hxperson if not others, a few posts ago on this same page?).

 

[Faust]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

 

[Eminence]

Look at what Moreno did last year. If you think Ball is as talented as Moreno, you'd expect him to produce similarily. Obviously it would be hard for the Broncos to repeat their 2014 production but if Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning and Ball stays healthy; instant production.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think Ball is definitely overvalued, but should also definitely be valued high for the next couple years.......just not as high as he seemingly is.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

I would pick Zac Stacy before Ball

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

This article is an example of a writer not believing a word he writes, but writing something in hopes of getting more clicks.

 

[Faust]

Fantasy instant debate: Montee Ball in Round 1?

 

[bonesman]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

This article is an example of a writer not believing a word he writes, but writing something in hopes of getting more clicks.

Funny you'd say that as he says right in the introductory paragraph that that is not the case. So you're calling Adam Levitan a liar, eh?

 

[bonesman]

I think Ball is definitely overvalued, but should also definitely be valued high for the next couple years.......just not as high as he seemingly is.

Most seem to be saying he's not a top 12-14 pick. Where would you slot him then?

 

[Bronco Billy]

The part I really enjoy are these comments:

No way I'd ever consider him as my RB1 but I'd absolutely love him as my RB2.

So he's not even worth thinking about as a RB1 but you fully expect him to outperform his value as a RB2? Huh?

 

[bagger]

he would have to be a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick for me to efen consider him in a ppr league.

way too many proven studs with equal upside and much less downside than ball any higher than that.

 

[bagger]

The part I really enjoy are these comments:

No way I'd ever consider him as my RB1 but I'd absolutely love him as my RB2.

So he's not even worth thinking about as a RB1 but you fully expect him to outperform his value as a RB2? Huh?

that makes complete sense.i want someone who demonstrates value at each round of the draft. at 1.07 when my other choices might be jimmy graham, calvin johnson, or matt forte, ball does not have the proven track record to justify the risk given that your reward is equally achievable with much less risk with your other options there.

however in the 2nd, especially if some other preferred players of yours may have been drafted, ball may represent a much higher upside than other options and an equal amount of downside risk whether that be due to other rbs in potential rbbcs, wrs who may be in a big enough tier that an equal one is available in the 3rd, or qbs you think have value later in the draft.

each draft pick is its own decision in contemplating opportunity cost between who you draft and who you dont. just because i think a player is capable of producing first round numbers doesn't mean that drafting him in the first is a wise decision given the other choices available.

 

[Bronco Billy]

The part I really enjoy are these comments:

No way I'd ever consider him as my RB1 but I'd absolutely love him as my RB2.

So he's not even worth thinking about as a RB1 but you fully expect him to outperform his value as a RB2? Huh?

that makes complete sense.i want someone who demonstrates value at each round of the draft. at 1.07 when my other choices might be jimmy graham, calvin johnson, or matt forte, ball does not have the proven track record to justify the risk given that your reward is equally achievable with much less risk with your other options there.

however in the 2nd, especially if some other preferred players of yours may have been drafted, ball may represent a much higher upside than other options and an equal amount of downside risk whether that be due to other rbs in potential rbbcs, wrs who may be in a big enough tier that an equal one is available in the 3rd, or qbs you think have value later in the draft.

each draft pick is its own decision in contemplating opportunity cost between who you draft and who you dont. just because i think a player is capable of producing first round numbers doesn't mean that drafting him in the first is a wise decision given the other choices available.

Thanks. I'll try to remember some of this when I draft.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

This article is an example of a writer not believing a word he writes, but writing something in hopes of getting more clicks.

Funny you'd say that as he says right in the introductory paragraph that that is not the case. So you're calling Adam Levitan a liar, eh?

that's the setup of the article, bucko

If you want me to call him a liar, fine by me. I don't think he is broken up too much about it.

 

[False Start]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

This article is an example of a writer not believing a word he writes, but writing something in hopes of getting more clicks.

Funny you'd say that as he says right in the introductory paragraph that that is not the case. So you're calling Adam Levitan a liar, eh?

that's the setup of the article, bucko

If you want me to call him a liar, fine by me. I don't think he is broken up too much about it.

This board is really sensitive on such things. If a person has a belief, so be it. If he thinks the writer is a liar, why do you care what someone on the internet thinks of some writer? I called someone a thug and people got up in arms, others are getting mad at people who want to see the movie "Draft Day" or god forbid like the movie. So I am starting to notice more and more that people get soooooo mad at others thoughts and opinions on the internet like their life depends on convincing you to change your point of view.

 

[az_prof]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

...

What if Lammey comes in here in July/August and tells us how good Ronnie Hillman looks?

 

[False Start]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

What about his fumbles, everyone seems to hold it against Ridley?

 

[az_prof]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

What about his fumbles, everyone seems to hold it against Ridley?

He had over 800 carries in college without a fumble. Look at how he holds the ball. He doesn't have a fumbling problem--total red herring.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

What about his fumbles, everyone seems to hold it against Ridley?

He had over 800 carries in college without a fumble. Look at how he holds the ball. He doesn't have a fumbling problem--total red herring.

3 fumbles in 140 touches is a red herring? GTFO.

 

[False Start]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

What about his fumbles, everyone seems to hold it against Ridley?

He had over 800 carries in college without a fumble. Look at how he holds the ball. He doesn't have a fumbling problem--total red herring.

3 fumbles in 140 touches is a red herring? GTFO.

Yeah, can we talk about what other players have done in college since it matters in the NFL. RB's take a different type of hit in the NFL, obviously he couldn't handle those last year. Ridley had it 188 times last year and fumbled 4 times and he gets a bad rap and he has been in the league longer and proved he was capable. Ball drops it 3 times in a few carries and people are saying he should go in the first? Right.

Ball fumbled every 46 carries, Ridley fumbled every 47. Ball averaged 4.70 and Ridley averaged 4.34 yet people are claiming the Patriots need to draft someone or sign someone while Ball should be a first rounder. Both play with good teams and Ridley already had a 1200+ yard season and scored 12 scores while fumbling only twice just two years ago. So we know he is capable, is Ball capable of that season? Both are young and have more than a few years ahead of them.

 

[Touchdown There]

He is a hard runner and a real nose for the end zone.

Ball's needs to score 10 or more touchdowns this year or he will be a disappointment. In this high powered offense, he should be a scoring machine inside the 5.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

3 fumbles on 140 touches is way too small a sample size from which to draw any meaningful conclusion about whether Ball has ball security issues or not. Bringing up Ridley is irrelevant and absurd -- Ridley actually got benched and outplayed by Blount last year, which is why he dropped in people's rankings.

I personally won't be jumping to grab Montee Ball in the 1st this year either, but concerns about him fumbling too much is waaaaay down the list of reasons why.

 

[Faust]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

Excerpts:

A) Elusiveness: The Week 2 Giants game was a disaster. Out of Ball’s 12 carries, I gave him a “nice run” designation zero times. Eleven times, he went down on first contact. The one time that Ball tried to bounce a run outside, he was too slow to the edge and got swallowed up. He also lost a careless goal-line fumble (more on that below) and missed holes that Knowshon Moreno showed he could find.

Fast forward to later in the season and Ball was running with much more confidence. Go back and watch his touchdown run in Week 8 which he literally pushes the pile four yards. We started to see some of that inside burst and power that made Ball so special in college.

D) Fumbles: Montee Ball is not a fumbler. I know that owners who drafted him last year and then got burned will beg to differ, but the evidence supports the argument that he just wasn’t ready at the beginning of the year (much like pass protection). Ball admitted that he was accustomed to rarely getting touched as he burst through holes in college, and had to adjust. You can see it on his weak, silly fumble against the Giants in Week 2 when Cullen Jenkins reaches across Ball’s body and punches the ball out easily. He had just one fumble on his final 151 touches in 2013 and didn’t fumble on any of his first 802 touches at Wisconsin. Ball’s issue from last year were easily corrected and a non-issue for me.

I think that Ball had some initial challenges in making the adjustment to the NFL game, and as the season wore on, he became increasingly more confident and improved his early season ball security issues to the satisfaction of the coaching staff, where they clearly trusted him a lot more going into the playoffs and moving forward into the 2014 season.

 

[False Start]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

Excerpts:

D) Fumbles: Montee Ball is not a fumbler. I know that owners who drafted him last year and then got burned will beg to differ, but the evidence supports the argument that he just wasn’t ready at the beginning of the year (much like pass protection). Ball admitted that he was accustomed to rarely getting touched as he burst through holes in college, and had to adjust. You can see it on his weak, silly fumble against the Giants in Week 2 when Cullen Jenkins reaches across Ball’s body and punches the ball out easily. He had just one fumble on his final 151 touches in 2013 and didn’t fumble on any of his first 802 touches at Wisconsin. Ball’s issue from last year were easily corrected and a non-issue for me.

I think that Ball had some initial challenges in making the adjustment to the NFL game, and as the season wore on, he became increasingly more confident and improved his early season ball security issues to the satisfaction of the coaching staff, where they clearly trusted him a lot more going into the playoffs and moving forward into the 2014 season.

Ball didnt even touch the ball 151 times last year, where is this guy getting his stats?

I also think its funny him saying "he is not a fumbler." Well since you said so. <_< Wish it was that easy. "I am a millionaire." Nope, still not according to my bank account.

 

[Faust]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

Excerpts:

D) Fumbles: Montee Ball is not a fumbler. I know that owners who drafted him last year and then got burned will beg to differ, but the evidence supports the argument that he just wasn’t ready at the beginning of the year (much like pass protection). Ball admitted that he was accustomed to rarely getting touched as he burst through holes in college, and had to adjust. You can see it on his weak, silly fumble against the Giants in Week 2 when Cullen Jenkins reaches across Ball’s body and punches the ball out easily. He had just one fumble on his final 151 touches in 2013 and didn’t fumble on any of his first 802 touches at Wisconsin. Ball’s issue from last year were easily corrected and a non-issue for me.

I think that Ball had some initial challenges in making the adjustment to the NFL game, and as the season wore on, he became increasingly more confident and improved his early season ball security issues to the satisfaction of the coaching staff, where they clearly trusted him a lot more going into the playoffs and moving forward into the 2014 season.

Ball didnt even touch the ball 151 times last year, where is this guy getting his stats?

I also think its funny him saying "he is not a fumbler." Well since you said so. <_< Wish it was that easy. "I am a millionaire." Nope, still not according to my bank account.

False Start,

Montee Ball had 120 carries and 20 catches during the regular season, totaling 140 touches; however, when you include his post season stats, Ball had another 28 carries and 5 receptions with 0 fumbles.

I agree that it is a small sample size, but what the article is trying to state is that Ball's initial fumbling issues were earlier in the season when he was still adjusting to the NFL game, and Adam Levitan is using this plus his college history to make the case that Ball isn't a fumbler. I think that the 2014 season will go a long ways towards demonstrating if Ball has fumbling issues in the NFL, or if he truly was able to overcome his initial rookie season fumbling issues.

Cheers,

Faust

 

[MoveToSkypager]

3 fumbles on 140 touches is way too small a sample size from which to draw any meaningful conclusion about whether Ball has ball security issues or not. Bringing up Ridley is irrelevant and absurd -- Ridley actually got benched and outplayed by Blount last year, which is why he dropped in people's rankings.

I personally won't be jumping to grab Montee Ball in the 1st this year either, but concerns about him fumbling too much is waaaaay down the list of reasons why.

He had something like 160 total touches this season. That is enough.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

What about his fumbles, everyone seems to hold it against Ridley?

He had over 800 carries in college without a fumble. Look at how he holds the ball. He doesn't have a fumbling problem--total red herring.

3 fumbles in 140 touches is a red herring? GTFO.

Holy crap. Enough already. If people are set-to to call Ball a fumbler no one is going to change their mind. But the evidence is that one of those fumbles was Manning's fault - Manning failed to reach down and put the ball in Ball's breadbasket and instead put it on his breastplates (did the same thing to Hillman once too). The other 2 are on Ball, one earlier on in a short yardage situation. The other one was later after he had caught up to the game. So when he was reinserted and was getting significant work again in the latter half of the season and playoffs he had one fumble. Knowing Ball, he'll adjust and correct for that one too. It's like his missing a pass protection block in preseason - so some hold that he can't pass block. They'll completely ignore the regular season and playoff performance and how much he improved, and how he slid into the correct position when he had to to pick up blitzes. To those with an irrational dislike of Ball or a unceasing need to be right on their initial opinion no matter what the evidence shows of his improved play as the season went on, they'll always reach back for this stuff. They just can't seem to admit that players can learn and improve, and catch up to NFL game speed.

So hold to your guns if you have to insist that he's a fumbler. Obviously nothing will change your mind. Let others draft him before you will and we'll wait to see what the outcome is.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

Goal line scorer: check

Will get some receptions: check

Can carry the load: check

Good system: check

Young and healthy: check

Draft pedigree: check

College performance: check

Passed the NFL eye test: check

Team Expressed confidence in him: check

The only question mark is the fact that he has not been the starter before. And he has the advantage over any back picked in the 2014 draft in that we have seen him against NFL competition whereas all of them will be complete unknowns in that regard.

What about his fumbles, everyone seems to hold it against Ridley?

He had over 800 carries in college without a fumble. Look at how he holds the ball. He doesn't have a fumbling problem--total red herring.

3 fumbles in 140 touches is a red herring? GTFO.

Holy crap. Enough already. If people are set-to to call Ball a fumbler no one is going to change their mind. But the evidence is that one of those fumbles was Manning's fault - Manning failed to reach down and put the ball in Ball's breadbasket and instead put it on his breastplates (did the same thing to Hillman once too). The other 2 are on Ball, one earlier on in a short yardage situation. The other one was later after he had caught up to the game. So when he was reinserted and was getting significant work again in the latter half of the season and playoffs he had one fumble. Knowing Ball, he'll adjust and correct for that one too.It's like his missing a pass protection block in preseason - so some hold that he can't pass block. They'll completely ignore the regular season and playoff performance and how much he improved, and how he slid into the correct position when he had to to pick up blitzes. To those with an irrational dislike of Ball or a unceasing need to be right on their initial opinion no matter what the evidence shows of his improved play as the season went on, they'll always reach back for this stuff. They just can't seem to admit that players can learn and improve, and catch up to NFL game speed.

So hold to your guns if you have to insist that he's a fumbler. Obviously nothing will change your mind. Let others draft him before you will and we'll wait to see what the outcome is.

That's wrong. If he doesn't fumble a bunch in 2014, then that will change my mind. But as of now, fumbler.

 

[bonesman]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

This article is an example of a writer not believing a word he writes, but writing something in hopes of getting more clicks.

Funny you'd say that as he says right in the introductory paragraph that that is not the case. So you're calling Adam Levitan a liar, eh?

that's the setup of the article, bucko

If you want me to call him a liar, fine by me. I don't think he is broken up too much about it.

I don't care what you call him. You're saying he's doing something he says he's not doing *shrug* Seems pointless

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Montee Ball, First-Round Pick

This article is an example of a writer not believing a word he writes, but writing something in hopes of getting more clicks.

Funny you'd say that as he says right in the introductory paragraph that that is not the case. So you're calling Adam Levitan a liar, eh?

that's the setup of the article, bucko

If you want me to call him a liar, fine by me. I don't think he is broken up too much about it.

I don't care what you call him. You're saying he's doing something he says he's not doing *shrug* Seems pointless

The feelings are mutual, my man.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I would not take him in the first round of a redraft, but I DO see him as a RB1. The question is do you value him as your RB1 over one of the top 3 QBs or top 3 TEs or top5 WRs? I probably don't. But in terms of RBs, I would be hard pressed to find 12 that I think will outperform him in 2014. He's definitely in the top 10.

Starter without a lot of competition: check

...

What if happens when Lammey comes in here in July/August and tells us how good Ronnie Hillman looks?

fixed.