Jonas Gray (RB - New England) (2 Viewers)

[zamboni]

Yup, just when we thought we were out, Belichick drags us back in.

With the Lions tough defensive front, I do expect the Pats to attack via the air next week - so a 12-40 line next week sounds about right.

 

[Milkman]

BB gave Jonas Grey 38 carries because that was the game plan but I wouldn't put it past BB that in the back of his mind he knew Grey wouldn't get that much work next week against the Lions.

I could still see him scoring a TD or even two but less than 50 yards rushing. So he's like a TD dependent RB3.

 

[Tool]

One thing i picked up on from the telecast is that he was running where he was supposed to every time. BB likes that.

I was close to cutting him in one league yesterday but held on thankfully. He's a free agent in my big $ league but unfortunately i have no chance to get him.

 

[KCitons]

BB gave Jonas Grey 38 carries because that was the game plan but I wouldn't put it past BB that in the back of his mind he knew Grey wouldn't get that much work next week against the Lions.

I could still see him scoring a TD or even two but less than 50 yards rushing. So he's like a TD dependent RB3.

I agree with this. If the Pats have a goal line situation, Gray should get the call.

I started Gray last night as my flex. (over Markus Wheaton) But I also started Vereen as my RB2. I expected one of the two to get the bulk of the work. Was hoping for 10/50 and a TD from Gray. I got lucky.

Probably won't be in my starting lineup next week.

 

[Banger]

One thing i picked up on from the telecast is that he was running where he was supposed to every time. BB likes that.

I was close to cutting him in one league yesterday but held on thankfully. He's a free agent in my big $ league but unfortunately i have no chance to get him.

the fact that the dude got every carry even when the game was in hand and he ended up with a ridiculous 38 says the BB loves him. The backup RB didn't get a sniff. Unfortunately I'm in a must win game next week and I don't see how I can't play him. Detroit is an awful matchup though...espeically for a guy without a lot of wiggle. One good thing is that Det isn't throwing up a ton of points so I can see the game being tight and NE trying to run the ball.

 

[Andrew74]

Looks like I traded this guy a week early.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Benjamin Volin , Boston Globe, NFL Reporter
Jonas Gray said Robert Kraft pulled him aside on Saturday and said, “You’re going to have a big game.”
@BenVolin | | 11h | Score: 64

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

 

[Banger]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

that's what I'm afraid of.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

From Peter King:

Gray... had the best running day of any NFL back in the last 11 months: 38 carries, 199 yards, four touchdowns (one in each quarter).

...

And in 38 rushes, he had zero negative carries.

 

[PhantomJB]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

that's what I'm afraid of.

Several in here and experts elsewhere thought Vereen was going to have a huge game because they believed Colts-Pats was going to be a shootout. Gray was an afterthought.

One thing that Bellichick is not is predictable in his game planning. If it was easy as "run vs. colts" and "pass vs. Lions" then even FF message boarders could devise a scheme to counter it.

The Jets (Ivory/CJ) ran for 23/128/1 in Week 2 against the Lions with Geno Smith at QB.

Last year in Week 9 when many thought Brady was finished he faced PIT the No. 1 ranked pass defense at the time and lit them up for 432 yds and 4 TD's.

It is clear that Gray's usage will have some volatility. But assuming it can be predicted based on who the Pats are facing next is an exercise in futility IMO. At least until there are several more games to observe a pattern. Gray's the ideal RB3/Flex in that regard.

 

[Banger]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

that's what I'm afraid of.

Several in here and experts elsewhere thought Vereen was going to have a huge game because they believed Colts-Pats was going to be a shootout. Gray was an afterthought.

One thing that Bellichick is not is predictable in his game planning. If it was easy as "run vs. colts" and "pass vs. Lions" then even FF message boarders could devise a scheme to counter it.

The Jets (Ivory/CJ) ran for 23/128/1 in Week 2 against the Lions with Geno Smith at QB.

Last year in Week 9 when many thought Brady was finished he faced PIT the No. 1 ranked pass defense at the time and lit them up for 432 yds and 4 TD's.

It is clear that Gray's usage will have some volatility. But assuming it can be predicted based on who the Pats are facing next is an exercise in futility IMO. At least until there are several more games to observe a pattern. Gray's the ideal RB3/Flex in that regard.

ya...after working the wire hard over the past several weeks all of the sudden I have some really tough choices...

Ellington

CJ Anderson

Mason

D. Robinson

Gray

Crowell vs. Atl

FJax

AJ Green

Gordon

Beckham

have to fit in 2 rb's 2 wrs and a flex with Gronk as my TE....ahhhh...good problems I guess but I know I'm going to be kicking myself all Sunday over who's going off on my bench.

 

[General Tso]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

 

[shadyridr]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

 

[Banger]

although yesterday's game was ridiculous he got 12 carries vs. Denver for only 33 yards and 17 for 86 vs. Chicago. He's getting touches but Det really scares me as much as any team to run against in the entire league. I agree that BB definitely seems to trust him though. Gonna torture me all week

 

[PhantomJB]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

These are all really good points but would have to agree he is not RB1 material, primarily because: a) he is not a threat in the passing game and b) generally not the focal point of the offense.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

Also, on this point, I'm not as certain. Seems to me the Pats' strategy when getting 1st downs inside the 10 is to often run hurry-up using whatever personnel is currently on the field. Just last game I believe Vereen got several GL looks. Plus, Brady has been the king of QB sneaks the last few years although that his age may proclude him from doing this anymore.

Would have to agree, however, that every football coach in America would love to begin their game planning with high confidence they could pound the rock at every opportunity. Especially as cold weather and playoffs approach which bodes well for Gray's prospects assuming he can keep BB's trust.

 

[mnmplayer]

Gray will certainly get RB1 performances, but he is not an RB1 plug and play each week unless Vareen gets injured and you have C.J. Anderson last man standing type scenario.

 

[just_want_2_win]

I see weekly production of 25-140-3. Or not.

 

[Bayhawks]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

1-Yes, but it was 1 game.

2-If the O-line has "been getting better," why did they have sub 4.0 YPC in 3 of their last 4 games? And 2 of those games, the YPC was under 2?

3-Yes, he does.

4-In last night's game he was. Next week, he could be relegated to 8 carries. NE tends to "mix things up." Just because 1 back was huge in a given game doesn't make him the "undisputed" RB in NE. The last several years has proven that.

5-No, they don't. That's just not true. The last 5 years, the Pats have averaged 29.4 rushes/game. The last 5 years, in weeks 12 through 17, they've averaged 27.5 rushes/game. History shows that they actually run less late in the season.

6-How is last night's game the winning formula? They've won 6 games in a row. In 4 of them, they've relied on the pass, and in 2 of them, they've relied on the run. It doesn't seem that they have "a formula," but if they did, you'd be hard pressed to prove that this formula was running the ball, since 67% of the games during this winning streak did not focus on running the ball.

7-Yes, Brady played poorly last night, but over the 6 game winning streak, he is completing 67% of his passes (career average is 64%), he is averaging 8.2 YPA (career average is 7.5), his TD/attempt ratio is .09 (career rate is .06), his INT/attempt ratio is .01 (career average is .02). So, you're right, over this winning streak, Brady is actually better than the "Brady of old."

8-Again, it was 1 game. Before last night, he hasn't scored. He might prove to be the man at the stripe for NE, but it's way to early to crown him the "undisputed" GL back based on 1 game.

9-Absolutely right. He's only had 70 carries, though. It's premature to say he is or is not a fumbler. As long as he holds onto the ball, BB will be happy about that.

10-It's not just the D's they face, but the offenses they face, as well. If NE finds themselves having to throw the ball more, Gray won't get as much time. See last week's game, as an example. NE went more pass heavy, and Gray only got a dozen carries.

 

[Wingnut]

He made the right choice in giving up his comedy career

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/11/jonas-gray-standup-screech

 

[fightingillini]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

1-Yes, but it was 1 game.

2-If the O-line has "been getting better," why did they have sub 4.0 YPC in 3 of their last 4 games? And 2 of those games, the YPC was under 2?

3-Yes, he does.

4-In last night's game he was. Next week, he could be relegated to 8 carries. NE tends to "mix things up." Just because 1 back was huge in a given game doesn't make him the "undisputed" RB in NE. The last several years has proven that.

5-No, they don't. That's just not true. The last 5 years, the Pats have averaged 29.4 rushes/game. The last 5 years, in weeks 12 through 17, they've averaged 27.5 rushes/game. History shows that they actually run less late in the season.

6-How is last night's game the winning formula? They've won 6 games in a row. In 4 of them, they've relied on the pass, and in 2 of them, they've relied on the run. It doesn't seem that they have "a formula," but if they did, you'd be hard pressed to prove that this formula was running the ball, since 67% of the games during this winning streak did not focus on running the ball.

7-Yes, Brady played poorly last night, but over the 6 game winning streak, he is completing 67% of his passes (career average is 64%), he is averaging 8.2 YPA (career average is 7.5), his TD/attempt ratio is .09 (career rate is .06), his INT/attempt ratio is .01 (career average is .02). So, you're right, over this winning streak, Brady is actually better than the "Brady of old."

8-Again, it was 1 game. Before last night, he hasn't scored. He might prove to be the man at the stripe for NE, but it's way to early to crown him the "undisputed" GL back based on 1 game.

9-Absolutely right. He's only had 70 carries, though. It's premature to say he is or is not a fumbler. As long as he holds onto the ball, BB will be happy about that.

10-It's not just the D's they face, but the offenses they face, as well. If NE finds themselves having to throw the ball more, Gray won't get as much time. See last week's game, as an example. NE went more pass heavy, and Gray only got a dozen carries.

It's obvious that NE's strategy was to run the ball right down Indy's thoat. And they did it. All game long.

I am not going to discount Gray's performance.....he looked great. But to say that he's a RB1 going forward is a little premature.

 

[General Tso]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.Some more numbers for you to digest concerning the Patriots and the running game...

In each of the last 8 seasons the Patriots have always finished in the top 6 in terms of rushing touchdowns. That's amazing consistency when you think about it. They have averaged a ridiculous 20 rushing touchdowns per 16 game season since 2006. And the numbers get better as you get closer to the last completed season - 2013. In each of the last 4 completed seasons the Patriots have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Year - Rush TD's - NFL rank

2006 - 20 - 4th

2007 - 17 - 6th

2008 - 21 - 4th

2009 - 19 - 6th

2010 - 19 - 2nd

2011 - 18 - 3rd

2012 - 25 - 1st

2013 - 19 - 2nd

Bottom line, and contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a run scoring team. Anyone who watches the Patriots on a consistent basis knows this. They dink and dunk down the field and punch it in from inside the 5. And this tendency gets even more pronounced as the weather gets colder.

And the rushing TD's aren't coming from Brady or Vereen, either. In Vereen's last 3 complete seasons he has 5 rushing TD's out of the 62 - or 8%. Brady, in his last 8 completed seasons, has had 11 rushing TD's out of 137 - once again 8%. The other 84% was scored by the traditional RB's, which in this case for the Pats right now is one man and one man only - Jonas Gray.

So with these historical numbers in mind, what's in store for Gray from here on out? Well, through 10 games in 2014 the Pats only have 7 rushing TD's - and that includes Gray's 4 TD's last night. Once again they have averaged over 20 rushing TD's per regular season over the past 8 years. Let's assume worst case scenario and they finish 2014 with their worst rushing TD total over that 8 year period - 17. This would mean 10 more rushing TD's over the last 6 games, easily conceivable. Let's be conservative and assume 1 TD goes to Brady and 1 to Vereen. That leaves 8 TD's for Gray over the last 6 games. And prior to my doing this analysis this is just about what I would have forecast for Gray from here on out.

So keep laughing at me calling him an RB-1 from here on out. You all laughed at us last week and the week before when we were touting Gray. Meanwhile I'll be laughing my ### off all the way to the bank.

 

[Phenomena]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

1-Yes, but it was 1 game.

2-If the O-line has "been getting better," why did they have sub 4.0 YPC in 3 of their last 4 games? And 2 of those games, the YPC was under 2?

3-Yes, he does.

4-In last night's game he was. Next week, he could be relegated to 8 carries. NE tends to "mix things up." Just because 1 back was huge in a given game doesn't make him the "undisputed" RB in NE. The last several years has proven that.

5-No, they don't. That's just not true. The last 5 years, the Pats have averaged 29.4 rushes/game. The last 5 years, in weeks 12 through 17, they've averaged 27.5 rushes/game. History shows that they actually run less late in the season.

6-How is last night's game the winning formula? They've won 6 games in a row. In 4 of them, they've relied on the pass, and in 2 of them, they've relied on the run. It doesn't seem that they have "a formula," but if they did, you'd be hard pressed to prove that this formula was running the ball, since 67% of the games during this winning streak did not focus on running the ball.

7-Yes, Brady played poorly last night, but over the 6 game winning streak, he is completing 67% of his passes (career average is 64%), he is averaging 8.2 YPA (career average is 7.5), his TD/attempt ratio is .09 (career rate is .06), his INT/attempt ratio is .01 (career average is .02). So, you're right, over this winning streak, Brady is actually better than the "Brady of old."

8-Again, it was 1 game. Before last night, he hasn't scored. He might prove to be the man at the stripe for NE, but it's way to early to crown him the "undisputed" GL back based on 1 game.

9-Absolutely right. He's only had 70 carries, though. It's premature to say he is or is not a fumbler. As long as he holds onto the ball, BB will be happy about that.

10-It's not just the D's they face, but the offenses they face, as well. If NE finds themselves having to throw the ball more, Gray won't get as much time. See last week's game, as an example. NE went more pass heavy, and Gray only got a dozen carries.

It's obvious that NE's strategy was to run the ball right down Indy's thoat. And they did it. All game long.

I am not going to discount Gray's performance.....he looked great. But to say that he's a RB1 going forward is a little premature.

My question would be ... who left on the schedule does NE try to run the ball down their throats? That gets to the root of the issue of how valuable/startable will Gray be for the rest of the season. I'm not seeing good running match-ups on the schedule. DET, MIA, NYJ seem more likely be hit through the air... GB and SD maybe, but GB has been playing lights out defensively, and SD is not that bad either. There is no match-up left in the fantasy season where NE is going to game plan to give Gray 20+ carries.

If you can sell Gray for anything, I would jump on it. I have an offer out to trade Gray/Floyd for Gordon to a RB-needy team. I hope he bites.

 

[shadyridr]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.

Youre the guy who said Jamal Charles was a bust this year, right?

 

[shadyridr]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.Some more numbers for you to digest concerning the Patriots and the running game...

In each of the last 8 seasons the Patriots have always finished in the top 6 in terms of rushing touchdowns. That's amazing consistency when you think about it. They have averaged a ridiculous 20 rushing touchdowns per 16 game season since 2006. And the numbers get better as you get closer to the last completed season - 2013. In each of the last 4 completed seasons the Patriots have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Year - Rush TD's - NFL rank

2006 - 20 - 4th

2007 - 17 - 6th

2008 - 21 - 4th

2009 - 19 - 6th

2010 - 19 - 2nd

2011 - 18 - 3rd

2012 - 25 - 1st

2013 - 19 - 2nd

Bottom line, and contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a run scoring team. Anyone who watches the Patriots on a consistent basis knows this. They dink and dunk down the field and punch it in from inside the 5. And this tendency gets even more pronounced as the weather gets colder.

And the rushing TD's aren't coming from Brady or Vereen, either. In Vereen's last 3 complete seasons he has 5 rushing TD's out of the 62 - or 8%. Brady, in his last 8 completed seasons, has had 11 rushing TD's out of 137 - once again 8%. The other 84% was scored by the traditional RB's, which in this case for the Pats right now is one man and one man only - Jonas Gray.

So with these historical numbers in mind, what's in store for Gray from here on out? Well, through 10 games in 2014 the Pats only have 7 rushing TD's - and that includes Gray's 4 TD's last night. Once again they have averaged over 20 rushing TD's per regular season over the past 8 years. Let's assume worst case scenario and they finish 2014 with their worst rushing TD total over that 8 year period - 17. This would mean 10 more rushing TD's over the last 6 games, easily conceivable. Let's be conservative and assume 1 TD goes to Brady and 1 to Vereen. That leaves 8 TD's for Gray over the last 6 games. And prior to my doing this analysis this is just about what I would have forecast for Gray from here on out.

So keep laughing at me calling him an RB-1 from here on out. You all laughed at us last week and the week before when we were touting Gray. Meanwhile I'll be laughing my ### off all the way to the bank.

Where was this insight before last night? What changed last night than the previous four games? Werent all those things still true prior to last night? Now tell me Gray's #s the previous fours games since taking over for Ridley. So was he a mid-to high end RB1 prior to last night? No, so now all of a sudden, dude has a historic 200 yds, 4TD effort in one game and hes a high end RB1? Talk about what have you done for me lately?

 

[Sabertooth]

Would you cut Lesean McCoy for him at this point? I'm thinking yes. Gray's floor seems to be about what McCoy has been doing this season.

 

[theplayer11]

He's law firm 2..straight ahead runner, no help in PPR. He will be inconsistent for fantasy use IMO. mostly TD dependent.

I wouldn't start him next week

 

[Andrew74]

People thought the Pats weren't going to pound the Colts? Nobody remember this past January?

 

[shadyridr]

So funny, General Tso didnt make a single post in this thread. Gray has a historic night and Tso posts his analysis after the fact that we shouldve all seen this coming and hes a high end RB1. So basically he had a great game and that changed your analysis on this guy.

Face it hes a mid level RB2, same as Ridley was. He doesnt catch the ball so he is VERY TD dependent. He will disappear for games just like Ridley did. He played FOUR games prior to last night and didnt score a TD in any game.

 

[fightingillini]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

1-Yes, but it was 1 game.

2-If the O-line has "been getting better," why did they have sub 4.0 YPC in 3 of their last 4 games? And 2 of those games, the YPC was under 2?

3-Yes, he does.

4-In last night's game he was. Next week, he could be relegated to 8 carries. NE tends to "mix things up." Just because 1 back was huge in a given game doesn't make him the "undisputed" RB in NE. The last several years has proven that.

5-No, they don't. That's just not true. The last 5 years, the Pats have averaged 29.4 rushes/game. The last 5 years, in weeks 12 through 17, they've averaged 27.5 rushes/game. History shows that they actually run less late in the season.

6-How is last night's game the winning formula? They've won 6 games in a row. In 4 of them, they've relied on the pass, and in 2 of them, they've relied on the run. It doesn't seem that they have "a formula," but if they did, you'd be hard pressed to prove that this formula was running the ball, since 67% of the games during this winning streak did not focus on running the ball.

7-Yes, Brady played poorly last night, but over the 6 game winning streak, he is completing 67% of his passes (career average is 64%), he is averaging 8.2 YPA (career average is 7.5), his TD/attempt ratio is .09 (career rate is .06), his INT/attempt ratio is .01 (career average is .02). So, you're right, over this winning streak, Brady is actually better than the "Brady of old."

8-Again, it was 1 game. Before last night, he hasn't scored. He might prove to be the man at the stripe for NE, but it's way to early to crown him the "undisputed" GL back based on 1 game.

9-Absolutely right. He's only had 70 carries, though. It's premature to say he is or is not a fumbler. As long as he holds onto the ball, BB will be happy about that.

10-It's not just the D's they face, but the offenses they face, as well. If NE finds themselves having to throw the ball more, Gray won't get as much time. See last week's game, as an example. NE went more pass heavy, and Gray only got a dozen carries.

It's obvious that NE's strategy was to run the ball right down Indy's thoat. And they did it. All game long.

I am not going to discount Gray's performance.....he looked great. But to say that he's a RB1 going forward is a little premature.

My question would be ... who left on the schedule does NE try to run the ball down their throats? That gets to the root of the issue of how valuable/startable will Gray be for the rest of the season. I'm not seeing good running match-ups on the schedule. DET, MIA, NYJ seem more likely be hit through the air... GB and SD maybe, but GB has been playing lights out defensively, and SD is not that bad either. There is no match-up left in the fantasy season where NE is going to game plan to give Gray 20+ carries.

If you can sell Gray for anything, I would jump on it. I have an offer out to trade Gray/Floyd for Gordon to a RB-needy team. I hope he bites.

True. DET, MIA, and NYJ are tough against the run. I think that you can run against the Pack and SD, in fact that WOULD be my strategy against GB....to keep Rodgers on the sidelines.

But we really won't know, since the NE running game is going to be game dependent. NE behind or facing a lot of 3rd downs, you will see a lot of Vereen. NE well ahead and getting 5-8 yards a carry on 1st down....you will see a lot of Gray.

Last night's game was a perfect situation for Gray.

 

[PhantomJB]

So funny, General Tso didnt make a single post in this thread. Gray has a historic night and Tso posts his analysis after the fact that we shouldve all seen this coming and hes a high end RB1. So basically he had a great game and that changed your analysis on this guy.

Face it hes a mid level RB2, same as Ridley was. He doesnt catch the ball so he is VERY TD dependent. He will disappear for games just like Ridley did. He played FOUR games prior to last night and didnt score a TD in any game.

Yes. But I wouldn't say Gray is "very" TD dependent. Gray's performance the last few games may instill full BB trust and thus relegate Vereen back to a passing-back role where he appears much better suited.

And without a Blount to provide "North-South" competition, and without Ridley's fumblitis issues reducing touches, Gray could very well perform like the Ridley of 2012, which was 1260 yds and 12 TD's (16 games). Solid high-end RB2 territory in any format.

 

[General Tso]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.

Youre the guy who said Jamal Charles was a bust this year, right?

Good try buddy. Here's what I actually said (Nov. 9, 4:07 pm):"Sorry guys, but Charles has been a disappointment this season as the #1 overall pick. He hasnt been a total bust, but he hasn't been a good return on investment either". It was a fair statement to make at the time, and it was backed up with a lot of data.

And I also ate crow in that thread yesterday and acknowledged that Charles was "starting to make me eat my words".

Still waiting for you to - you know - take a stand of some kind... On any issue...

 

[shadyridr]

LMAO at "taking a stand" on any "issue". This is fantasy football. This is where you and I differ. I dont take stands. I have an opinion on a player and I mockingly laughed at your hideous opinion calling him a high end RB1. I dont care to debate about it either because again this is fantasy football and I dont take it seriously. I have better things to do with my life than debate with some mouth breather over a players value.

 

[General Tso]

So funny, General Tso didnt make a single post in this thread. Gray has a historic night and Tso posts his analysis after the fact that we shouldve all seen this coming and hes a high end RB1. So basically he had a great game and that changed your analysis on this guy.

Face it hes a mid level RB2, same as Ridley was. He doesnt catch the ball so he is VERY TD dependent. He will disappear for games just like Ridley did. He played FOUR games prior to last night and didnt score a TD in any game.

Oh trust me - I may not have posted in this thread but I've been all over Gray for a few weeks now. And I can assure you that I started him with confidence yesterday and enjoyed every single second of him scoring 43.9 points for me.But kudos to you for at least having an opinion for once. I like your use of facts, too. It's a good start.

 

[Tanner9919]

and he'll go 12-24 against the Lions ..you sit him next week, start him v. Packers....sit him v. Miami ,Jets, Bills.start him v. SD.

he's a matchup RB, not an every week starter.last time a NE RB had a 'good' game this season, Vereen a couple weeks ago, he had a 2 carry, 4 yard day or something like that, the following week..

lets put away the anointing oils..he's not the Great One..

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

INDIANAPOLIS -- In updating the New England Patriots' positional groupings from Sunday night's win against the Colts, it reinforces the obvious: The Patriots mostly loaded up at the line of scrimmage with bigger personnel and played the role of bully.

Consider that of their 73 offensive snaps (including penalties, but not kneel-downs), the Patriots had either two or more tight ends, or two backs on the field for all but six of them:

2-WR/2-TE/1-RB -- 38 of 73

1-WR/2-TE/1-FB/1-RB -- 17 of 73

2-WR/1-TE/1-FB/1-RB -- 8 of 73

3 WR/1-TE/1-RB -- 5 of 73

3-TE/1-FB/1-RB -- 4 of 73

3-WR/1-FB/1-RB -- 1 of 73

The Patriots had three different variations of the 2-WR/2-TE/1-RB package, often using 325-pound offensive tackle Cameron Fleming (37 snaps) as the second option for more of a run-based presence. In doing so, the Patriots basically give up one eligible receiver in exchange for an extra blocker.

Other times, it was a more traditional pairing of Rob Gronkowski and Michael Hoomanawanui (24 snaps). Then a few times, it was Gronkowski and Tim Wright (10 snaps overall). So overall, this was a tight-end heavy plan, as well as one in which fullback James Develin played a season-high 30 snaps.

Though the Patriots did use some empty sets and spread the field at times, it was really more of a power game with bigger personnel.

Fleming's 37 snaps were a season-high and highlighted the focus on power running (previous high was 28 vs. Minnesota) as he's a 325-pound offensive tackle.

RUNNING BACK

Jonas Gray -- 53 of 73

Shane Vereen -- 20 of 73

Quick-hit thoughts: Gray's snap counts looked like this leading into the game: 12, 29, 23. So this was a big breakthrough.

"We talked about that long and hard," Belichick said. "We really talked about bringing him up on the roster several weeks before we did [Oct. 16]. I had several conversations with him in previous weeks, telling him, ‘You're close. We want to try to get you on the roster but right now we've had a couple other issues we've had to deal with.' I think we all felt as a coaching staff that he would be playing for us at some point this year at that final cut. Obviously we didn't want to expose him, but we did what we thought was best."

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots

for people who don't follow the pats, cam fleming is a rookie lineman who comes from a program using extra lineman, and who was used in a similar gameplan against minny earlier this year when ridley got 25 carries for 100 yds, but had been inactive the past few weeks.

cam was down on the field late in the game, so that's something to watch during the week.

 

[fightingillini]

and he'll go 12-24 against the Lions ..you sit him next week, start him v. Packers....sit him v. Miami ,Jets, Bills.start him v. SD.

he's a matchup RB, not an every week starter.last time a NE RB had a 'good' game this season, Vereen a couple weeks ago, he had a 2 carry, 4 yard day or something like that, the following week..

lets put away the anointing oils..he's not the Great One..

From Week 12-16, NE has 1 bad matchup (DET), 2 tough matchups (MIA, NYJ), 1 neutral matchup (SD) and 1 great matchup (GB).

After 10 games

DET gives up 68 rushing yds, 3 YPC, and 4 rushing scores

MIA gives up 95 rushing yds, 3.9 YPC, and 4 rushing scores

NYJ gives up 83 rushing yds, 3.3 YPC, and 4 rushing scores

SD gives up 109 rushing yds, 4.4 YPC, and 6 rushing scores

GB gives up 140 rushing yds, 4.5 YPC, and 9 rushing scores

In comparison, IND gives up 112 rushing yds, 4.7 YPC, and 12 rushing scores. It was a great matchup that NE exploited.

So Tanner is right. Temper your expectations vs DET, MIA, and NYJ.

 

[Bayhawks]

So funny, General Tso didnt make a single post in this thread. Gray has a historic night and Tso posts his analysis after the fact that we shouldve all seen this coming and hes a high end RB1. So basically he had a great game and that changed your analysis on this guy.

Face it hes a mid level RB2, same as Ridley was. He doesnt catch the ball so he is VERY TD dependent. He will disappear for games just like Ridley did. He played FOUR games prior to last night and didnt score a TD in any game.

Yes. But I wouldn't say Gray is "very" TD dependent. Gray's performance the last few games may instill full BB trust and thus relegate Vereen back to a passing-back role where he appears much better suited.

When did Vereen ever move out of the passing-back role?

Before Ridley's injury, Vereen averaged 7 rushes/game and 3 rec/game.

Since Ridley's injury, Vereen has averaged 7 rushes/game and 4.25 rec/game.

Last night was a perfect storm for Gray. They wanted to run the ball down Indy's throat, Brady wasn't sharp, and NE got up early. All those things allowed him to get massive carries, and 4 short plunges.

 

[General Tso]

and he'll go 12-24 against the Lions ..you sit him next week, start him v. Packers....sit him v. Miami ,Jets, Bills.start him v. SD.

he's a matchup RB, not an every week starter.last time a NE RB had a 'good' game this season, Vereen a couple weeks ago, he had a 2 carry, 4 yard day or something like that, the following week..

lets put away the anointing oils..he's not the Great One..

From Week 12-16, NE has 1 bad matchup (DET), 2 tough matchups (MIA, NYJ), 1 neutral matchup (SD) and 1 great matchup (GB).After 10 games

DET gives up 68 rushing yds, 3 YPC, and 4 rushing scores

MIA gives up 95 rushing yds, 3.9 YPC, and 4 rushing scores

NYJ gives up 83 rushing yds, 3.3 YPC, and 4 rushing scores

SD gives up 109 rushing yds, 4.4 YPC, and 6 rushing scores

GB gives up 140 rushing yds, 4.5 YPC, and 9 rushing scores

In comparison, IND gives up 112 rushing yds, 4.7 YPC, and 12 rushing scores. It was a great matchup that NE exploited.

So Tanner is right. Temper your expectations vs DET, MIA, and NYJ.

I would call it 1 bad matchup (Det), 1 tough matchup (NYJ), 1 neutral (Miami), 1 good (San Diego), and 1 great (Green Bay). In Yahtzee terms it's a large straight.Miami is very over-rated in my opinion. They have only faced one top ten running game all season (KC - ranked #3 in ypc) and they got torched. Knile Davis ran for 32-132-1. Here are the offensive rushing rankings for their 9 other opponents - 12, 15, 16, 21, 22, 22, 29, 30, 32. Yeah, they shut down Oakland, Detroit (with an injured Bush), Buffalo (without Spiller or FJax), and San Diego (without Matthews or Woodhead and a 37-0 blowout game). To be be fair Miami hasn't proven to be a rush stopping juggernaut just yet. And San Diego's rush defense is starting to take on water. In the last 5 games they've given up the following rush yards per game - 114 (against Oakland no less), 154, 139, 132, and 71 (Oakland again).

Their schedule is just fine.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Career games over 130+ yards rushing:

Dillon 13/150; Blount 2/66; Ridley 1/52; BJGE 1/85

And two more, based on guys I think are his comps:

Travis Henry 13/90; Rudi Johnson 6/95.

I like the Henry comp the best, except that Gray had to work like hell to get where he is and I don't expect him to cut his career short by doing dumb stuff.

At the very least, I'd be happy to take the over on any comparison to BJGE, Ridley or Blount.

 

[PhantomJB]

So funny, General Tso didnt make a single post in this thread. Gray has a historic night and Tso posts his analysis after the fact that we shouldve all seen this coming and hes a high end RB1. So basically he had a great game and that changed your analysis on this guy.

Face it hes a mid level RB2, same as Ridley was. He doesnt catch the ball so he is VERY TD dependent. He will disappear for games just like Ridley did. He played FOUR games prior to last night and didnt score a TD in any game.

Yes. But I wouldn't say Gray is "very" TD dependent. Gray's performance the last few games may instill full BB trust and thus relegate Vereen back to a passing-back role where he appears much better suited.

When did Vereen ever move out of the passing-back role?

Before Ridley's injury, Vereen averaged 7 rushes/game and 3 rec/game.

Since Ridley's injury, Vereen has averaged 7 rushes/game and 4.25 rec/game.

Last night was a perfect storm for Gray. They wanted to run the ball down Indy's throat, Brady wasn't sharp, and NE got up early. All those things allowed him to get massive carries, and 4 short plunges.

For his career Vereen has averaged 5.3 rushes/game. Agree that last night is likely an anomaly on multiple fronts for both Gray and Vereen.

5-6 carries is what I would expect Vereen to have for the rest of 2014 now that Gray apparently has emerged as a trusted North-South runner. IMO the 7 rushes/game Vereen has received in 2014 is higher than historical due to a) lack of full confidence in Ridley at the beginning of the season due to fumbling and b) leaning on Vereen more than usual in first 3 games after the Ridley injury.

 

[Al O'Pecia]

Jonas Gray punching it in

 

[IgglesFan]

For those people with large stiffies, please proceed directly to the Brandon Oliver thread.

 

[Sabertooth]

Except Ryan Mathews isn't coming back. I like Gray better than two current RB2s I have in different leagues (Sjax and Lesean). Not sure exactly where I put him but he's somewhere above those two guys. I would not start him over Ellington. Just for reference. His value, for me, is after Ellington but before Lesean.

 

[Milkman]

He's good for a TD or two against Detroit. You could do worse at your flex but he's not popping off for 20-120.

 

[Faust]

Jonas Gray made history in Patriots' victory over Colts

 

[ponchsox]

Two words. Sell high.

 

[BigTex]

I like Gray, want to see a little more before I play him. First round bye on the line and it's coming down to the last two weeks.

'

 

[Milkman]

Two words. Sell high.

Trade deadline had come and gone but if he gets hot at the end of this year i will definitely try to trade him.

 

[rdrouyn]

Get ready for 12 carries for 35 yards next game. Why? Cause Belichek hates fantasy football.