Jonas Gray (RB - New England) (1 Viewer)

[Rimez]

He will be a (matchup based) high end rb2 to low end flex play like the early down/goalline rb on the pats has been for years. pats love to run it inside the 10 and they score a lot of rushing tds, those guys will always blow up one week and be silent the next. if i remember right they gave him a handful of goalline carries against the bears as well but he couldnt punch it in so his coming out party was delayed.

the rb1 talk is stretch though since this is belichick, gray could suddenly get 0 touches while white or even bolden gets the start because the other team has left handed linebackers that sleep facing west, or gray's knee gets sore when its foggy and vereen was 30 secs late to a practice. you wont know any of this until the after game press conference though since they had 9 rbs active to keep the other team guessing. in other words if you hitch your wagon to the pats backfield, be prepared to be unprepared.

 

[dcgangstas]

Get ready for 12 carries for 35 yards next game. Why? Cause Belichek hates fantasy football.

That's true, but most of all no one runs on the Motor City Kitties. This will be a Shane Vereen game.

 

[Banger]

ya, I can't believe I'm sitting him...but with denard robinson, mason, cj anderson, crowell and ellington for 2 spots I just can't work him in....

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Mike Reiss - ESPNBoston.com, Patriots Beat Reporter
One leftover stat from NE-IND game: With OL Cameron Fleming on field as 6th OL, Patriots had 31 carries for 173 yards (5.58 avg.), 4 TDs.

 

[Cheesedawg]

He will be a (matchup based) high end rb2 to low end flex play like the early down/goalline rb on the pats has been for years. pats love to run it inside the 10 and they score a lot of rushing tds, those guys will always blow up one week and be silent the next. if i remember right they gave him a handful of goalline carries against the bears as well but he couldnt punch it in so his coming out party was delayed.

the rb1 talk is stretch though since this is belichick, gray could suddenly get 0 touches while white or even bolden gets the start because the other team has left handed linebackers that sleep facing west, or gray's knee gets sore when its foggy and vereen was 30 secs late to a practice. you wont know any of this until the after game press conference though since they had 9 rbs active to keep the other team guessing. in other words if you hitch your wagon to the pats backfield, be prepared to be unprepared.

Great post. So true.

 

[Dondante]

Wouldn't it be just oh so Belichickian to zig when we all think he's going to zag and run this kid (exclusively) into the ground for the rest of the year?

 

[zamboni]

No way we can trust Belichick this year or next, but for dynasty purposes keep in mind that Vereen will be an UFA after this year. Just something to keep in mind if you want to peddle him in dynasty leagues.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

You guys have taken the wrong message from New England's RB history -- they aren't predictable game to game, but they are incredibly consistent season to season. If you look at the backs by the role they actually filled each year (big back or passing down back)...

2013 Big Backs (Ridley and Blount) - 331 rushes, 12 receptions

2013 Passing Backs (Vereen and Bolden) - 99 rushes, 68 receptions

2012 Big Backs (Ridley and Bolden) - 346 rushes, 8 receptions

2012 Passing Backs (Woodhead and Vereen) - 138 rushes, 48 receptions

2011 Big Backs (BJGE, Ridley) - 268 rushes, 12 receptions

2011 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk, Vereen) - 109 rushes, 25 receptions

2010 Big Backs (BJGE, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris) - 292 rushes, 21 receptions

2010 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk) - 105 rushes, 40 receptions

This goes all the way back to Corey Dillon. The numbers rise and fall a bit based on how good the backs on the roster are relative to each other and how much competition there is for each role, but the overall pattern is the same.

There's a "big back" role and a "passing back" role. That's why Vereen as a #1 RB was always a pipe dream. That's not his role.

Yes, the game to game variance is annoying sometimes, but if you started New England's lead "big back" every game you'd have solid production every year.

Gray's hard to know too much about since he only had the one year as a rusher at Notre Dame and wasn't at the combine, but based on what we do know I think he's much better than BJGE, a bit better than Ridley and not as good as Dillon. And now that he's got an opportunity I have his best measurables-only comp as Travis Henry (minus the goofball baggage).

So, based on how good I think he is and the relative lack of competition in the "big back" role, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Gray's going to get the lion's share of the 18-21 touches for that role (almost all rushes). They may be scattered a bit game to game, but I think he's going to see the ball enough that he's a solid start most weeks given the overall quality of New England's offense.

 

[Dondante]

You guys have taken the wrong message from New England's RB history -- they aren't predictable game to game, but they are incredibly consistent season to season. If you look at the backs by the role they actually filled each year (big back or passing down back)...

2013 Big Backs (Ridley and Blount) - 331 rushes, 12 receptions

2013 Passing Backs (Vereen and Bolden) - 99 rushes, 68 receptions

2012 Big Backs (Ridley and Bolden) - 346 rushes, 8 receptions

2012 Passing Backs (Woodhead and Vereen) - 138 rushes, 48 receptions

2011 Big Backs (BJGE, Ridley) - 268 rushes, 12 receptions

2011 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk, Vereen) - 109 rushes, 25 receptions

2010 Big Backs (BJGE, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris) - 292 rushes, 21 receptions

2010 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk) - 105 rushes, 40 receptions

This goes all the way back to Corey Dillon. The numbers rise and fall a bit based on how good the backs on the roster are relative to each other and how much competition there is for each role, but the overall pattern is the same.

There's a "big back" role and a "passing back" role. That's why Vereen as a #1 RB was always a pipe dream. That's not his role.

Yes, the game to game variance is annoying sometimes, but if you started New England's "big back" every game you'd have solid production every year.

Gray's hard to know too much about since he only had the one year as a rusher at Notre Dame and wasn't at the combine, but based on what we do know I think he's much better than BJGE, a bit better than Ridley and not as good as Dillon. And now that he's got an opportunity I have his best measurables-only comp as Travis Henry (minus the goofball baggage).

So, based on how good I think he is and the relative lack of competition in the "big back" role, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Gray's going to get the lion's share of the 18-21 touches for that role (almost all rushes). They may be scattered a bit game to game, but he's going to see the ball enough that he's a solid start most weeks given the overall quality of New England's offense.

Nice work here, wdcrob.

 

[Bayhawks]

You guys have taken the wrong message from New England's RB history -- they aren't predictable game to game, but they are incredibly consistent season to season. If you look at the backs by the role they actually filled each year (big back or passing down back)...

2013 Big Backs (Ridley and Blount) - 331 rushes, 12 receptions

2013 Passing Backs (Vereen and Bolden) - 99 rushes, 68 receptions

2012 Big Backs (Ridley and Bolden) - 346 rushes, 8 receptions

2012 Passing Backs (Woodhead and Vereen) - 138 rushes, 48 receptions

2011 Big Backs (BJGE, Ridley) - 268 rushes, 12 receptions

2011 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk, Vereen) - 109 rushes, 25 receptions

2010 Big Backs (BJGE, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris) - 292 rushes, 21 receptions

2010 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk) - 105 rushes, 40 receptions

This goes all the way back to Corey Dillon. The numbers rise and fall a bit based on how good the backs on the roster are relative to each other and how much competition there is for each role, but the overall pattern is the same.

There's a "big back" role and a "passing back" role. That's why Vereen as a #1 RB was always a pipe dream. That's not his role.

Yes, the game to game variance is annoying sometimes, but if you started New England's "big back" every game you'd have solid production every year.

Gray's hard to know too much about since he only had the one year as a rusher at Notre Dame and wasn't at the combine, but based on what we do know I think he's much better than BJGE, a bit better than Ridley and not as good as Dillon. And now that he's got an opportunity I have his best measurables-only comp as Travis Henry (minus the goofball baggage).

So, based on how good I think he is and the relative lack of competition in the "big back" role, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Gray's going to get the lion's share of the 18-21 touches for that role (almost all rushes). They may be scattered a bit game to game, but he's going to see the ball enough that he's a solid start most weeks given the overall quality of New England's offense.

We're not talking about year-end production.

We're entering into the FF playoffs. Is this really the time you want to risk starting a relatively unknown commodity who plays for a coach who (as you yourself acknowledged) is annoyingly unpredictable about his RB usage/gameplan, and hope that in your must-win playoff game, Gray will get you 18 carries, and not just 8?

If you're talking about a best-ball or total points league, absolutely he's a good play. But to risk starting him over other RBs/WRs (assuming you have other viable RBs/WRs) is risky, IMO.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Gray will get you 18 carries, and not just 8?

You're doing it again.

If 18 is the average, you can't use it as the upside.

If you want to go with 28 or 8, fair enough. It could happen and even I'd probably think twice about that for a one-and-done game.

 

[PhantomJB]

You guys have taken the wrong message from New England's RB history -- they aren't predictable game to game, but they are incredibly consistent season to season. If you look at the backs by the role they actually filled each year (big back or passing down back)...

2013 Big Backs (Ridley and Blount) - 331 rushes, 12 receptions

2013 Passing Backs (Vereen and Bolden) - 99 rushes, 68 receptions

2012 Big Backs (Ridley and Bolden) - 346 rushes, 8 receptions

2012 Passing Backs (Woodhead and Vereen) - 138 rushes, 48 receptions

2011 Big Backs (BJGE, Ridley) - 268 rushes, 12 receptions

2011 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk, Vereen) - 109 rushes, 25 receptions

2010 Big Backs (BJGE, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris) - 292 rushes, 21 receptions

2010 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk) - 105 rushes, 40 receptions

This goes all the way back to Corey Dillon. The numbers rise and fall a bit based on how good the backs on the roster are relative to each other and how much competition there is for each role, but the overall pattern is the same.

There's a "big back" role and a "passing back" role. That's why Vereen as a #1 RB was always a pipe dream. That's not his role.

Yes, the game to game variance is annoying sometimes, but if you started New England's "big back" every game you'd have solid production every year.

Gray's hard to know too much about since he only had the one year as a rusher at Notre Dame and wasn't at the combine, but based on what we do know I think he's much better than BJGE, a bit better than Ridley and not as good as Dillon. And now that he's got an opportunity I have his best measurables-only comp as Travis Henry (minus the goofball baggage).

So, based on how good I think he is and the relative lack of competition in the "big back" role, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Gray's going to get the lion's share of the 18-21 touches for that role (almost all rushes). They may be scattered a bit game to game, but he's going to see the ball enough that he's a solid start most weeks given the overall quality of New England's offense.

We're not talking about year-end production.

We're entering into the FF playoffs. Is this really the time you want to risk starting a relatively unknown commodity who plays for a coach who (as you yourself acknowledged) is annoyingly unpredictable about his RB usage/gameplan, and hope that in your must-win playoff game, Gray will get you 18 carries, and not just 8?

If you're talking about a best-ball or total points league, absolutely he's a good play. But to risk starting him over other RBs/WRs (assuming you have other viable RBs/WRs) is risky, IMO.

I don't understand this post at all. Outside of the Top 10 RB's (Foster/Forte/Lynch/Bell/Ingram/Charles/Lacy et al), they all have about the same amount of risk.

ETA: I'll amend this to say the same amount of risk/reward tradeoff. A guy like Tre Mason may be a lock for greater weekly volume, but he has yet to score a TD. Other guys have historical injury risk or are on weak offenses. Gray may very well put up 12/45 any given week but his upside has proven to be significant in that offense. That's what you get anymore with the world of RBBC.

 

[Bayhawks]

You guys have taken the wrong message from New England's RB history -- they aren't predictable game to game, but they are incredibly consistent season to season. If you look at the backs by the role they actually filled each year (big back or passing down back)...

2013 Big Backs (Ridley and Blount) - 331 rushes, 12 receptions

2013 Passing Backs (Vereen and Bolden) - 99 rushes, 68 receptions

2012 Big Backs (Ridley and Bolden) - 346 rushes, 8 receptions

2012 Passing Backs (Woodhead and Vereen) - 138 rushes, 48 receptions

2011 Big Backs (BJGE, Ridley) - 268 rushes, 12 receptions

2011 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk, Vereen) - 109 rushes, 25 receptions

2010 Big Backs (BJGE, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris) - 292 rushes, 21 receptions

2010 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk) - 105 rushes, 40 receptions

This goes all the way back to Corey Dillon. The numbers rise and fall a bit based on how good the backs on the roster are relative to each other and how much competition there is for each role, but the overall pattern is the same.

There's a "big back" role and a "passing back" role. That's why Vereen as a #1 RB was always a pipe dream. That's not his role.

Yes, the game to game variance is annoying sometimes, but if you started New England's "big back" every game you'd have solid production every year.

Gray's hard to know too much about since he only had the one year as a rusher at Notre Dame and wasn't at the combine, but based on what we do know I think he's much better than BJGE, a bit better than Ridley and not as good as Dillon. And now that he's got an opportunity I have his best measurables-only comp as Travis Henry (minus the goofball baggage).

So, based on how good I think he is and the relative lack of competition in the "big back" role, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Gray's going to get the lion's share of the 18-21 touches for that role (almost all rushes). They may be scattered a bit game to game, but he's going to see the ball enough that he's a solid start most weeks given the overall quality of New England's offense.

We're not talking about year-end production.

We're entering into the FF playoffs. Is this really the time you want to risk starting a relatively unknown commodity who plays for a coach who (as you yourself acknowledged) is annoyingly unpredictable about his RB usage/gameplan, and hope that in your must-win playoff game, Gray will get you 18 carries, and not just 8?

If you're talking about a best-ball or total points league, absolutely he's a good play. But to risk starting him over other RBs/WRs (assuming you have other viable RBs/WRs) is risky, IMO.

I don't understand this post at all. Outside of the Top 10 RB's (Foster/Forte/Lynch/Bell/Ingram/Charles/Lacy et al), they all have about the same amount of risk.

Really? You would rather trust Gray than A. Morris? McCoy? Bernard/Hill? Gore? Ellington? Lamar Miller? Even RBs like Denard Robinson or Joique Bell? I definitely see Gray (who has had one great game) as riskier than any of those guys. If you don't, then good luck to you, but in the playoffs, I don't want to risk BB "mixing things up" and giving (with no indication) Gray 8 carries for 30 yards.

 

[Bayhawks]

Gray will get you 18 carries, and not just 8?

You're doing it again.

If 18 is the average, you can't use it as the upside.

If you want to go with 28 or 8, fair enough. It could happen and even I'd probably think twice about that for a one-and-done game.

Okay, Gray will get you 28 carries, and not just 8?

Doesn't change anything. I'm not comfortable taking that risk (with a 1 game sample to look at), in a FF playoff game.

We also don't know if he is going to continue to be as protective of the ball as he has been. 70 carries isn't an insignificant sample size, but it's not large enough to say, with 100% certainty "ball control isn't an issue." And, 1 thing that seems to be pretty predictable with BB is that fumbles don't earn you more playing time.

Again, there's not enough info about Gray to get me to take that risk (if I don't have to) in a FF playoff game.

If I'm picking between Gray and Rainey or Trent Richardson, I'd go with Gray, but if I'm picking between Gray and Gore or Gio/Hill (depending on health of Gio), I'm going with the other guy.

 

[KCitons]

I'm going with Robinson over Gray this week. Sadly, if Jags weren't on a bye last week, I would never have started Gray. Vereen would have been in my flex spot and I would have cried in my beer.

I may be crying in my beer this week.

 

[PhantomJB]

You guys have taken the wrong message from New England's RB history -- they aren't predictable game to game, but they are incredibly consistent season to season. If you look at the backs by the role they actually filled each year (big back or passing down back)...

2013 Big Backs (Ridley and Blount) - 331 rushes, 12 receptions

2013 Passing Backs (Vereen and Bolden) - 99 rushes, 68 receptions

2012 Big Backs (Ridley and Bolden) - 346 rushes, 8 receptions

2012 Passing Backs (Woodhead and Vereen) - 138 rushes, 48 receptions

2011 Big Backs (BJGE, Ridley) - 268 rushes, 12 receptions

2011 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk, Vereen) - 109 rushes, 25 receptions

2010 Big Backs (BJGE, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris) - 292 rushes, 21 receptions

2010 Passing Backs (Woodhead, Faulk) - 105 rushes, 40 receptions

This goes all the way back to Corey Dillon. The numbers rise and fall a bit based on how good the backs on the roster are relative to each other and how much competition there is for each role, but the overall pattern is the same.

There's a "big back" role and a "passing back" role. That's why Vereen as a #1 RB was always a pipe dream. That's not his role.

Yes, the game to game variance is annoying sometimes, but if you started New England's "big back" every game you'd have solid production every year.

Gray's hard to know too much about since he only had the one year as a rusher at Notre Dame and wasn't at the combine, but based on what we do know I think he's much better than BJGE, a bit better than Ridley and not as good as Dillon. And now that he's got an opportunity I have his best measurables-only comp as Travis Henry (minus the goofball baggage).

So, based on how good I think he is and the relative lack of competition in the "big back" role, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Gray's going to get the lion's share of the 18-21 touches for that role (almost all rushes). They may be scattered a bit game to game, but he's going to see the ball enough that he's a solid start most weeks given the overall quality of New England's offense.

We're not talking about year-end production.

We're entering into the FF playoffs. Is this really the time you want to risk starting a relatively unknown commodity who plays for a coach who (as you yourself acknowledged) is annoyingly unpredictable about his RB usage/gameplan, and hope that in your must-win playoff game, Gray will get you 18 carries, and not just 8?

If you're talking about a best-ball or total points league, absolutely he's a good play. But to risk starting him over other RBs/WRs (assuming you have other viable RBs/WRs) is risky, IMO.

I don't understand this post at all. Outside of the Top 10 RB's (Foster/Forte/Lynch/Bell/Ingram/Charles/Lacy et al), they all have about the same amount of risk.

Really? You would rather trust Gray than A. Morris? McCoy? Bernard/Hill? Gore? Ellington? Lamar Miller? Even RBs like Denard Robinson or Joique Bell? I definitely see Gray (who has had one great game) as riskier than any of those guys. If you don't, then good luck to you, but in the playoffs, I don't want to risk BB "mixing things up" and giving (with no indication) Gray 8 carries for 30 yards.

It might just be different risk perception on my part but even in the two games prior to his breakout Gray averaged 14.5 carries. I think Morris is a good comp.

wdcrob's awesome post showed that the Patriots historically do have well-defined "big-back" and "passing back" roles, whereby the big back on rougly gets 2/3 of the carries. That back will generally get the vast majority of the GL touches and to me Gray has virtually sewn up the big back role. In my mind many people are applying more risk to Gray because he doesn't have name recognition but IMO that's not the way the coaches see it.

However, as you point out if Gray does indeed put up an 8/30/0 day and/or Vereen outcarries him in any of the next couple games and/or Gray doesn't get the majority of GL touches going forward then I will be solidly in your camp.

 

[Warpig]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Aaron Wilson , Baltimore Sun, Ravens Beat Writer
Statistical update: Patriots running back Jonas Gray now credited with 37 carries for 201 yards from Sunday night

 

[General Tso]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

 

[nb009]

Although it is a very dicey roll play week 11 when trying to make a push for the playoffs, I may be hitching my wagon to Mr. Jonas Gray at FLEX. New England is on the road at Indy versus a high flying offense. I could see them trying to establish a running game, grind it out on the ground and chew up clock and keep Luck on the sidelines. Sure Billy Belicheck could dial up all pass plays and Vereen could see all the snaps. Or Bolden could carry the load. Or White would carry the load. But when alternative options are just as dicey, revving up Jonas Gray may pay off. No one cares about my team, but Im looking at very little in terms of appealing upside elsewhere - a gimpy Lamar Miller who saw limited snaps and was part of a 3 headed RBBC and is now coming off a short week, pick up a dime a dozen crap shoot WR4 type like Brian Hartline, or a TE2 type sitting around like Scott Chandler.

Sometimes you just cant ignore that voice in your head:

Get Jonas active..

great call.

Great call. But also flawed as well. I, for one, assumed the same thing against the Broncos, but it didnt work out that way. Thus, it was hard for me to confidently place him in my lineup this past week using your rationale above.

 

[Bayhawks]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

 

[Bayhawks]

Although it is a very dicey roll play week 11 when trying to make a push for the playoffs, I may be hitching my wagon to Mr. Jonas Gray at FLEX. New England is on the road at Indy versus a high flying offense. I could see them trying to establish a running game, grind it out on the ground and chew up clock and keep Luck on the sidelines. Sure Billy Belicheck could dial up all pass plays and Vereen could see all the snaps. Or Bolden could carry the load. Or White would carry the load. But when alternative options are just as dicey, revving up Jonas Gray may pay off. No one cares about my team, but Im looking at very little in terms of appealing upside elsewhere - a gimpy Lamar Miller who saw limited snaps and was part of a 3 headed RBBC and is now coming off a short week, pick up a dime a dozen crap shoot WR4 type like Brian Hartline, or a TE2 type sitting around like Scott Chandler.

Sometimes you just cant ignore that voice in your head:

Get Jonas active..

great call.

Great call. But also flawed as well. I, for one, assumed the same thing against the Broncos, but it didnt work out that way. Thus, it was hard for me to confidently place him in my lineup this past week using your rationale above.

Exactly. If they were going to try to establish the running game to slow down an opponent's offense, why didn't they do it to Denver?

It's too hard to predict what NE RB will have a big day, and for me that makes the risk to great, at this point in the FF season.

 

[General Tso]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QB TB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RB Sea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB @Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WR NE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR @NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE P Sea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WR SF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST @StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K @Ten
W 27-24 10 147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

 

[SameSongNDance]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QBTB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RBSea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB@Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WRNE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR@NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE PSea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WRSF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST@StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K@Ten
W 27-24 10147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

Your other options were Knile Davis and AP with Murray on bye. You want a pat on the back because you decided to start him over Davis?

 

[General Tso]

If I'm picking between Gray and Rainey or Trent Richardson, I'd go with Gray, but if I'm picking between Gray and Gore or Gio/Hill (depending on health of Gio), I'm going with the other guy.

Frank Gore has played 10 games this year. In 5 of those games he has had 6.6 points or less (standard scoring). He has 2 rushing TD's on the season.

 

[General Tso]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QBTB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RBSea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB@Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WRNE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR@NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE PSea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WRSF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST@StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K@Ten
W 27-24 10147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

Your other options were Knile Davis and AP with Murray on bye. You want a pat on the back because you decided to start him over Davis?

There's also this really cool thing called a waiver wire.

 

[FlapJacks]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QBTB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RBSea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB@Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WRNE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR@NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE PSea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WRSF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST@StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K@Ten
W 27-24 10147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

Your other options were Knile Davis and AP with Murray on bye. You want a pat on the back because you decided to start him over Davis?

There's also this really cool thing called a waiver wire.

Where I'm sure there were other options with the potential for 10+ carries just sitting there....

 

[General Tso]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QBTB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RBSea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB@Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WRNE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR@NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE PSea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WRSF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST@StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K@Ten
W 27-24 10147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

Your other options were Knile Davis and AP with Murray on bye. You want a pat on the back because you decided to start him over Davis?

There's also this really cool thing called a waiver wire.

Where I'm sure there were other options with the potential for 10+ carries just sitting there....

Actually there were 15 other options out there with a higher projected point total than Gray last week, one of whom was on my bench.

Give it up Dude. I've got plenty of more evidence to share with you if you want to keep trolling. Instead, why not leave well enough alone and give credit where credit is due. Just raise that right hand hand up to your cap and tip it upward about an inch. You'll feel better.

 

[Warpig]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

I repeat..."LOL!". You got lucky and out of desperation of not having any other options, trotted Gray out there and he had the game of his career. He'll probably never be heard from again and ride off into the sunset after this year. Good for you and good for Jonas Gray. Good for anyone that started him as a shot in the dark.

But the moral of the story here is that there still isn't a single NE back you can start on a weekly basis with any confidence. Sure, people are saying this week will be Vereen's week. I'm not buying that at all. Once Belicheck gets wind that that is the expected outcome, he'll trot Bolden or White out there just to say nobody dictates what he does. Hell, I wouldn't put it past Belicheck to pick up Blount again or Tate, roll him out there for 20 carries this week, then turn around and cut them after this week.

If you have Vereen, it probably means you overpaid for him and are forced to hold him, or you have no other valid options due to injuries or underperforming. He's pretty much the only one that has a decent shot of putting up 5 points for you on a weekly basis. That's about as "consistent" as it gets for NE backs.

I'm not hating, just reiterating my point that the NE backfield is nothing more than a headache and isn't worth the constant struggle of trying to figure out who will get the points any given week.

 

[General Tso]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

I repeat..."LOL!". You got lucky and out of desperation of not having any other options, trotted Gray out there and he had the game of his career. He'll probably never be heard from again and ride off into the sunset after this year. Good for you and good for Jonas Gray. Good for anyone that started him as a shot in the dark.

But the moral of the story here is that there still isn't a single NE back you can start on a weekly basis with any confidence. Sure, people are saying this week will be Vereen's week. I'm not buying that at all. Once Belicheck gets wind that that is the expected outcome, he'll trot Bolden or White out there just to say nobody dictates what he does. Hell, I wouldn't put it past Belicheck to pick up Blount again or Tate, roll him out there for 20 carries this week, then turn around and cut them after this week.

If you have Vereen, it probably means you overpaid for him and are forced to hold him, or you have no other valid options due to injuries or underperforming. He's pretty much the only one that has a decent shot of putting up 5 points for you on a weekly basis. That's about as "consistent" as it gets for NE backs.

I'm not hating, just reiterating my point that the NE backfield is nothing more than a headache and isn't worth the constant struggle of trying to figure out who will get the points any given week.

Is this just a gut feel on your part? Myself and wdcrob have provided some pretty compelling evidence showing that New England RB's have proven to be fantasy gold over the past 8 years, particularly at this exact point in the season. It's not just a small sample size either. It's as statistically significant as just about any fantasy football projection you will see. You act like we are dealing with Skeletor here during the height of Denver's RBBC years. That hasn't been the case with New England. Belichik, year after year after year, establishes a strong running game around this time of the year and rides his main workhorse RB pretty hard down the stretch. Is it a guarantee that Gray produces great numbers every week? Hell no - that's ridiculous. Nothing is guaranteed. My two starting RB's are DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles and either of them could lay an egg this week. But you have all the signs in the world pointing toward Gray being a significant fantasy producing RB over the next 5 weeks. Those signs are not just there this week, they were also there last week as well. And now the signs are even stronger. Jonas Gray just turned in one of the top 10 RB performances in the history of the NFL. Belichik loves him, he passes the eye test, he shows great ball security, he is the undisputed goal-line back, and he's the starting RB on one of the 2 or 3 best teams in football. It's bush that after getting schooled last week all you can say this week is that we "got lucky". I know you feel strongly about it, but you don't really provide much in the way of evidence or facts to support why you feel that way. I'm genuinely interested in why.

 

[Dondante]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

I repeat..."LOL!". You got lucky and out of desperation of not having any other options, trotted Gray out there and he had the game of his career. He'll probably never be heard from again and ride off into the sunset after this year. Good for you and good for Jonas Gray. Good for anyone that started him as a shot in the dark.

But the moral of the story here is that there still isn't a single NE back you can start on a weekly basis with any confidence. Sure, people are saying this week will be Vereen's week. I'm not buying that at all. Once Belicheck gets wind that that is the expected outcome, he'll trot Bolden or White out there just to say nobody dictates what he does. Hell, I wouldn't put it past Belicheck to pick up Blount again or Tate, roll him out there for 20 carries this week, then turn around and cut them after this week.

If you have Vereen, it probably means you overpaid for him and are forced to hold him, or you have no other valid options due to injuries or underperforming. He's pretty much the only one that has a decent shot of putting up 5 points for you on a weekly basis. That's about as "consistent" as it gets for NE backs.

I'm not hating, just reiterating my point that the NE backfield is nothing more than a headache and isn't worth the constant struggle of trying to figure out who will get the points any given week.

Is this just a gut feel on your part? Myself and wdcrob have provided some pretty compelling evidence showing that New England RB's have proven to be fantasy gold over the past 8 years, particularly at this exact point in the season. It's not just a small sample size either. It's as statistically significant as just about any fantasy football projection you will see. You act like we are dealing with Skeletor here during the height of Denver's RBBC years. That hasn't been the case with New England. Belichik, year after year after year, establishes a strong running game around this time of the year and rides his main workhorse RB pretty hard down the stretch. Is it a guarantee that Gray produces great numbers every week? Hell no - that's ridiculous. Nothing is guaranteed. My two starting RB's are DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles and either of them could lay an egg this week. But you have all the signs in the world pointing toward Gray being a significant fantasy producing RB over the next 5 weeks. Those signs are not just there this week, they were also there last week as well. And now the signs are even stronger. Jonas Gray just turned in one of the top 10 RB performances in the history of the NFL. Belichik loves him, he passes the eye test, he shows great ball security, he is the undisputed goal-line back, and he's the starting RB on one of the 2 or 3 best teams in football. It's bush that after getting schooled last week all you can say this week is that we "got lucky". I know you feel strongly about it, but you don't really provide much in the way of evidence or facts to support why you feel that way. I'm genuinely interested in why.

Care to make a prediction on his stat line vs Detroit?

 

[az_prof]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

I repeat..."LOL!". You got lucky and out of desperation of not having any other options, trotted Gray out there and he had the game of his career. He'll probably never be heard from again and ride off into the sunset after this year. Good for you and good for Jonas Gray. Good for anyone that started him as a shot in the dark.

But the moral of the story here is that there still isn't a single NE back you can start on a weekly basis with any confidence. Sure, people are saying this week will be Vereen's week. I'm not buying that at all. Once Belicheck gets wind that that is the expected outcome, he'll trot Bolden or White out there just to say nobody dictates what he does. Hell, I wouldn't put it past Belicheck to pick up Blount again or Tate, roll him out there for 20 carries this week, then turn around and cut them after this week.

If you have Vereen, it probably means you overpaid for him and are forced to hold him, or you have no other valid options due to injuries or underperforming. He's pretty much the only one that has a decent shot of putting up 5 points for you on a weekly basis. That's about as "consistent" as it gets for NE backs.

I'm not hating, just reiterating my point that the NE backfield is nothing more than a headache and isn't worth the constant struggle of trying to figure out who will get the points any given week.

Is this just a gut feel on your part? Myself and wdcrob have provided some pretty compelling evidence showing that New England RB's have proven to be fantasy gold over the past 8 years, particularly at this exact point in the season. It's not just a small sample size either. It's as statistically significant as just about any fantasy football projection you will see. You act like we are dealing with Skeletor here during the height of Denver's RBBC years. That hasn't been the case with New England. Belichik, year after year after year, establishes a strong running game around this time of the year and rides his main workhorse RB pretty hard down the stretch. Is it a guarantee that Gray produces great numbers every week? Hell no - that's ridiculous. Nothing is guaranteed. My two starting RB's are DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles and either of them could lay an egg this week. But you have all the signs in the world pointing toward Gray being a significant fantasy producing RB over the next 5 weeks. Those signs are not just there this week, they were also there last week as well. And now the signs are even stronger. Jonas Gray just turned in one of the top 10 RB performances in the history of the NFL. Belichik loves him, he passes the eye test, he shows great ball security, he is the undisputed goal-line back, and he's the starting RB on one of the 2 or 3 best teams in football. It's bush that after getting schooled last week all you can say this week is that we "got lucky". I know you feel strongly about it, but you don't really provide much in the way of evidence or facts to support why you feel that way. I'm genuinely interested in why.

Care to make a prediction on his stat line vs Detroit?

I would guess 50 yards and a 50/50 chance of a TD.

 

[Bayhawks]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QBTB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RBSea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB@Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WRNE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR@NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE PSea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WRSF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST@StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K@Ten
W 27-24 10147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

Your other options were Knile Davis and AP with Murray on bye. You want a pat on the back because you decided to start him over Davis?

There's also this really cool thing called a waiver wire.

Where I'm sure there were other options with the potential for 10+ carries just sitting there....

Actually there were 15 other options out there with a higher projected point total than Gray last week, one of whom was on my bench.

Give it up Dude. I've got plenty of more evidence to share with you if you want to keep trolling. Instead, why not leave well enough alone and give credit where credit is due. Just raise that right hand hand up to your cap and tip it upward about an inch. You'll feel better.

I looked at that thing you called a waiver wire. The only RB option still there (obviously I don't know who was added/dropped this last week in your league) was Crowell. Based on the way Cleveland uses their RBs, I wouldn't have trusted him last week. So, you played Gray over Kniles Davis and some WW scrubs. You didn't have any other options, then you come in this thread and try to claim you knew it all along. And earlier, you were boasting "I have Charles and Murray, and he'll be in my lineup from here on out!" Way to go out on a limb, starting him over Reuben Randle and Eric Decker. Oh, what big balls you have!

Look, you think Gray is going to be a great play the rest of the year. Good, roll with him & good luck to you. But stop being a jerk and calling people out for stating their opinion about him BEFORE he broke out, when you didn't even do that.

 

[urbanhack]

Two words. Sell high.

Trade deadline had come and gone but if he gets hot at the end of this year i will definitely try to trade him.

keep us posted.

 

[Bayhawks]

Is this just a gut feel on your part? Myself and wdcrob have provided some pretty compelling evidence showing that New England RB's have proven to be fantasy gold over the past 8 years, particularly at this exact point in the season. It's not just a small sample size either. It's as statistically significant as just about any fantasy football projection you will see.

No, YOU haven't. Your 10 points were wrong in more places than they were right. I already posted this, but the Pats don't run more this time of year, as YOU claimed, they run less. Brady isn't "the old Tom Brady," he's playing better, NE's winning formula isn't running the ball as you think, in fact over 2/3 of this winning streak they've been on has featured a pass-heavy offense, not run-heavy. You were forced to start Gray this week, and got lucky, but your (after the fact) analysis of the situation was pretty much dead wrong.

ETA-If you were "on" Gray for weeks, as you claimed earlier, how come you picked him up on 10/30, but didnt' start him until Murray's bye left you with no choice this last week?

 

[General Tso]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.Some more numbers for you to digest concerning the Patriots and the running game...

In each of the last 8 seasons the Patriots have always finished in the top 6 in terms of rushing touchdowns. That's amazing consistency when you think about it. They have averaged a ridiculous 20 rushing touchdowns per 16 game season since 2006. And the numbers get better as you get closer to the last completed season - 2013. In each of the last 4 completed seasons the Patriots have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Year - Rush TD's - NFL rank

2006 - 20 - 4th

2007 - 17 - 6th

2008 - 21 - 4th

2009 - 19 - 6th

2010 - 19 - 2nd

2011 - 18 - 3rd

2012 - 25 - 1st

2013 - 19 - 2nd

Bottom line, and contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a run scoring team. Anyone who watches the Patriots on a consistent basis knows this. They dink and dunk down the field and punch it in from inside the 5. And this tendency gets even more pronounced as the weather gets colder.

And the rushing TD's aren't coming from Brady or Vereen, either. In Vereen's last 3 complete seasons he has 5 rushing TD's out of the 62 - or 8%. Brady, in his last 8 completed seasons, has had 11 rushing TD's out of 137 - once again 8%. The other 84% was scored by the traditional RB's, which in this case for the Pats right now is one man and one man only - Jonas Gray.

So with these historical numbers in mind, what's in store for Gray from here on out? Well, through 10 games in 2014 the Pats only have 7 rushing TD's - and that includes Gray's 4 TD's last night. Once again they have averaged over 20 rushing TD's per regular season over the past 8 years. Let's assume worst case scenario and they finish 2014 with their worst rushing TD total over that 8 year period - 17. This would mean 10 more rushing TD's over the last 6 games, easily conceivable. Let's be conservative and assume 1 TD goes to Brady and 1 to Vereen. That leaves 8 TD's for Gray over the last 6 games. And prior to my doing this analysis this is just about what I would have forecast for Gray from here on out.

Oh Bayhawk, your genius is needed to dispute all of this. Can't wait to hear your expert analysis.

 

[General Tso]

The point I was debating/arguing was the contention that he can be counted on for 11-12 points. While that's possible, it's just as likely (exactly as likely based on NE's RB usage the past 5 years) that he'll get you 2-3 points.

If he averages 11-12ppg then it's absolutely, mathematically not true that he's as likely to get you 2-3 points as he is to get you 11-12 points.He's (roughly) as likely to get you 20-21 points as he is to get you 2-3 points.

You're ignoring the boom side of the boom/bust equation.

LOL. This post just about sums everything up.

 

[Bayhawks]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.Some more numbers for you to digest concerning the Patriots and the running game...

In each of the last 8 seasons the Patriots have always finished in the top 6 in terms of rushing touchdowns. That's amazing consistency when you think about it. They have averaged a ridiculous 20 rushing touchdowns per 16 game season since 2006. And the numbers get better as you get closer to the last completed season - 2013. In each of the last 4 completed seasons the Patriots have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Year - Rush TD's - NFL rank

2006 - 20 - 4th

2007 - 17 - 6th

2008 - 21 - 4th

2009 - 19 - 6th

2010 - 19 - 2nd

2011 - 18 - 3rd

2012 - 25 - 1st

2013 - 19 - 2nd

Bottom line, and contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a run scoring team. Anyone who watches the Patriots on a consistent basis knows this. They dink and dunk down the field and punch it in from inside the 5. And this tendency gets even more pronounced as the weather gets colder.

And the rushing TD's aren't coming from Brady or Vereen, either. In Vereen's last 3 complete seasons he has 5 rushing TD's out of the 62 - or 8%. Brady, in his last 8 completed seasons, has had 11 rushing TD's out of 137 - once again 8%. The other 84% was scored by the traditional RB's, which in this case for the Pats right now is one man and one man only - Jonas Gray.

So with these historical numbers in mind, what's in store for Gray from here on out? Well, through 10 games in 2014 the Pats only have 7 rushing TD's - and that includes Gray's 4 TD's last night. Once again they have averaged over 20 rushing TD's per regular season over the past 8 years. Let's assume worst case scenario and they finish 2014 with their worst rushing TD total over that 8 year period - 17. This would mean 10 more rushing TD's over the last 6 games, easily conceivable. Let's be conservative and assume 1 TD goes to Brady and 1 to Vereen. That leaves 8 TD's for Gray over the last 6 games. And prior to my doing this analysis this is just about what I would have forecast for Gray from here on out.

Oh Bayhawk, your genius is needed to dispute all of this. Can't wait to hear your expert analysis.

Why would I dispute that? I don't agree that Gray is going to hit the numbers he posted, but HIS information is accurate.

It was YOUR post that was riddled with mistakes.

YOU said the Pats run more this time of year. They don't, they run less.

YOU said that Tom Brady isn't the Tom Brady of old. I showed that his numbers in this winning streak are actually better than his best years,

YOU said that the Pats' winning formula is running the ball, I showed that during the 6 game win steak, over 2/3 of the time, they did the exact opposite of what you claimed.

I'm not disputing his information, YOU are the one who is boasting in this thread, but seems to be relying on facts that aren't, well, factual.

YOU are the one who shows up after the fact, claiming that you saw this coming, but provided a link to your league site that shows you sat Gray on your bench until Murray's bye forced you to start him.

Go ahead, General Tso, your genius is needed to backup YOUR posts. Can't wait to hear how you explain all the wrong information you posted in your original post, and why since you were all over Gray for weeks, why you let him sit on your bench for 3 weeks before you were forced to start him, playing Randle and Decker over him.

 

[General Tso]

You were forced to start Gray this week, and got lucky, but your (after the fact) analysis of the situation was pretty much dead wrong.

ETA-If you were "on" Gray for weeks, as you claimed earlier, how come you picked him up on 10/30, but didnt' start him until Murray's bye left you with no choice this last week?

Dude, can you read? I've already said that there were 15 other RB's with projections higher than Gray's 2.5 points that I could have played. And I was "on Gray" for weeks. Last I checked 10/30 was a couple weeks agnce again, you want to debate intelligently about Gray, I'm all for it. But let's stop the nonsense about me not calling Gray last week, or for the remainder of the season. You should focus your argument on the future, because when it comes to last week - you lost.

 

[SengerCJ]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but stat correction with give him 201 yards, which is a 5 point bump in most standard leagues. 50 points, season high for any player in my league, Big Ben 48 2nd highest.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/11898556/stat-correction-gives-new-england-patriots-jonas-gray-201-rushing-yards-indianapolis-colts

Went from 38/199 to 37/201

"In the fourth quarter on third-and-2 with 10:31 remaining, Gray had a carry that went for negative-2 yards, but there was a penalty that was enforced on the play. The Colts were offsides, but the accepted penalty was a personal foul facemask on Colts linebacker Erik Walden."

 

[General Tso]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.Some more numbers for you to digest concerning the Patriots and the running game...

In each of the last 8 seasons the Patriots have always finished in the top 6 in terms of rushing touchdowns. That's amazing consistency when you think about it. They have averaged a ridiculous 20 rushing touchdowns per 16 game season since 2006. And the numbers get better as you get closer to the last completed season - 2013. In each of the last 4 completed seasons the Patriots have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Year - Rush TD's - NFL rank

2006 - 20 - 4th

2007 - 17 - 6th

2008 - 21 - 4th

2009 - 19 - 6th

2010 - 19 - 2nd

2011 - 18 - 3rd

2012 - 25 - 1st

2013 - 19 - 2nd

Bottom line, and contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a run scoring team. Anyone who watches the Patriots on a consistent basis knows this. They dink and dunk down the field and punch it in from inside the 5. And this tendency gets even more pronounced as the weather gets colder.

And the rushing TD's aren't coming from Brady or Vereen, either. In Vereen's last 3 complete seasons he has 5 rushing TD's out of the 62 - or 8%. Brady, in his last 8 completed seasons, has had 11 rushing TD's out of 137 - once again 8%. The other 84% was scored by the traditional RB's, which in this case for the Pats right now is one man and one man only - Jonas Gray.

So with these historical numbers in mind, what's in store for Gray from here on out? Well, through 10 games in 2014 the Pats only have 7 rushing TD's - and that includes Gray's 4 TD's last night. Once again they have averaged over 20 rushing TD's per regular season over the past 8 years. Let's assume worst case scenario and they finish 2014 with their worst rushing TD total over that 8 year period - 17. This would mean 10 more rushing TD's over the last 6 games, easily conceivable. Let's be conservative and assume 1 TD goes to Brady and 1 to Vereen. That leaves 8 TD's for Gray over the last 6 games. And prior to my doing this analysis this is just about what I would have forecast for Gray from here on out.

Oh Bayhawk, your genius is needed to dispute all of this. Can't wait to hear your expert analysis.

Why would I dispute that? I don't agree that Gray is going to hit the numbers he posted, but HIS information is accurate. It was YOUR post that was riddled with mistakes.

YOU said the Pats run more this time of year. They don't, they run less.

YOU said that Tom Brady isn't the Tom Brady of old. I showed that his numbers in this winning streak are actually better than his best years,

YOU said that the Pats' winning formula is running the ball, I showed that during the 6 game win steak, over 2/3 of the time, they did the exact opposite of what you claimed.

I'm not disputing his information, YOU are the one who is boasting in this thread, but seems to be relying on facts that aren't, well, factual.

YOU are the one who shows up after the fact, claiming that you saw this coming, but provided a link to your league site that shows you sat Gray on your bench until Murray's bye forced you to start him.

Go ahead, General Tso, your genius is needed to backup YOUR posts. Can't wait to hear how you explain all the wrong information you posted in your original post, and why since you were all over Gray for weeks, why you let him sit on your bench for 3 weeks before you were forced to start him, playing Randle and Decker over him.

Dude - I can't argue with anymore with someone who can't read. HIS information - which you refer to above and say is accurate - is MY POST! Good Lord.

 

[zamboni]

No way do I start him against the tough lions D and the expectation that the pats go pass heavy against them.

But if Gray does do well, I'm officially sold.

 

[Bayhawks]

You run against the colts and pass vs the lions.

Then by all means you go ahead and sit him. I can't believe people are still looking upon him as a situational starter:1) he just turned in one of the 10 best rushing performances in the history of the NFL.

2) he wasn't lucky... The Pats O-Line has been getting better every week, and Gray looks to fit the running scheme perfectly.

3) he plays on one of the best offenses in football

4) he's the undisputed "running back" on the team. His competition, Vereen, is a situation pass catching 3rd down type back.

5) the Pats have a documented history of running the ball late in the season.

6) the Pats have found a winning formula, and it focuses on ball control and defense. Incidentally this is the same formula that won them three Superbowls. They aren't going to get pass happy now.

7) Brady is not the Brady of old. He didn't even play that well last night.

8) Gray is the undisputed goal line back.

9) He noticeably wraps up the ball tightly when he's about to get hit. As we know, BB hates turnovers. He appears to trust Gray.

10) other than next week's game against Detroit, New England has a pretty good remaining strength of schedule for RB's from here on out.

Let's put it this way, I have Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray on my team, and Jonas Gray is still going to be in my starting lineup every week from here on out (flex position). After last night he has to be considered a mid to high RB1. And of course he can have a bad week - that applies to every single RB. But I'll take my chances with the guy. He already got me 4 weeks of points so I'm playing with house money anyways.

Shady, were it not for your avatar your postings would be completely worthless.Some more numbers for you to digest concerning the Patriots and the running game...

In each of the last 8 seasons the Patriots have always finished in the top 6 in terms of rushing touchdowns. That's amazing consistency when you think about it. They have averaged a ridiculous 20 rushing touchdowns per 16 game season since 2006. And the numbers get better as you get closer to the last completed season - 2013. In each of the last 4 completed seasons the Patriots have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Year - Rush TD's - NFL rank

2006 - 20 - 4th

2007 - 17 - 6th

2008 - 21 - 4th

2009 - 19 - 6th

2010 - 19 - 2nd

2011 - 18 - 3rd

2012 - 25 - 1st

2013 - 19 - 2nd

Bottom line, and contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a run scoring team. Anyone who watches the Patriots on a consistent basis knows this. They dink and dunk down the field and punch it in from inside the 5. And this tendency gets even more pronounced as the weather gets colder.

And the rushing TD's aren't coming from Brady or Vereen, either. In Vereen's last 3 complete seasons he has 5 rushing TD's out of the 62 - or 8%. Brady, in his last 8 completed seasons, has had 11 rushing TD's out of 137 - once again 8%. The other 84% was scored by the traditional RB's, which in this case for the Pats right now is one man and one man only - Jonas Gray.

So with these historical numbers in mind, what's in store for Gray from here on out? Well, through 10 games in 2014 the Pats only have 7 rushing TD's - and that includes Gray's 4 TD's last night. Once again they have averaged over 20 rushing TD's per regular season over the past 8 years. Let's assume worst case scenario and they finish 2014 with their worst rushing TD total over that 8 year period - 17. This would mean 10 more rushing TD's over the last 6 games, easily conceivable. Let's be conservative and assume 1 TD goes to Brady and 1 to Vereen. That leaves 8 TD's for Gray over the last 6 games. And prior to my doing this analysis this is just about what I would have forecast for Gray from here on out.

Oh Bayhawk, your genius is needed to dispute all of this. Can't wait to hear your expert analysis.

Why would I dispute that? I don't agree that Gray is going to hit the numbers he posted, but HIS information is accurate. It was YOUR post that was riddled with mistakes.

YOU said the Pats run more this time of year. They don't, they run less.

YOU said that Tom Brady isn't the Tom Brady of old. I showed that his numbers in this winning streak are actually better than his best years,

YOU said that the Pats' winning formula is running the ball, I showed that during the 6 game win steak, over 2/3 of the time, they did the exact opposite of what you claimed.

I'm not disputing his information, YOU are the one who is boasting in this thread, but seems to be relying on facts that aren't, well, factual.

YOU are the one who shows up after the fact, claiming that you saw this coming, but provided a link to your league site that shows you sat Gray on your bench until Murray's bye forced you to start him.

Go ahead, General Tso, your genius is needed to backup YOUR posts. Can't wait to hear how you explain all the wrong information you posted in your original post, and why since you were all over Gray for weeks, why you let him sit on your bench for 3 weeks before you were forced to start him, playing Randle and Decker over him.

Dude - I can't argue with anymore with someone who can't read. HIS information - which you refer to above and say is accurate - is MY POST! Good Lord.

I read the last post, thought it was wdcrobs. That last post, as I posted earlier contains good info, although I disagree with YOUR projected future numbers for Gray.

That being said, you still haven't explained why your original post claimed the Pats run more this time of year, when they run less, why you believe Brady isn't the Brady of old, when he's performing better, why you think the Pats winning formula is running the ball, when they've passed more often than they've run during their winning streak, and why you didn't start Gray until you were forced to.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

sry to interrupt

If you watched even a little of the Colts' loss to the Patriots on Sunday night, you undoubtedly heard the game officials repeatedly announcing that No. 71 was reporting as an eligible receiver.

You probably paid it very little mind at the time. But you perhaps should have, because this was actually a key element in the game.

No. 71 has a name. He's Patriots rookie offensive lineman Cameron Fleming, and he reported as an eligible tackle some 37 times, according to ESPNBoston.com. Hard as it might be to believe, the tactic wreaked havoc on the Colts defense and loomed large in the Patriots' rushing success.

Here's how:

Fleming's insertion into the lineup was not expected by the Colts, and when he did enter the game, it left the Colts unable to easily identify the offense's strong side. That had a cascading effect, creating confusion among the Colts' defensive linemen, who determine where to line up based on the offense's strong side. The pre-snap confusion had a clear impact after the snap, too, contributing to their failure to corral running back Jonas Gray.

Why the confusion?

Because the strong side is typically the one on which the tight end lines up. That tight end often is Rob Gronkowski, who the Colts certainly had to respect in the running game. But, ultimately, the Patriots ran the ball more often to Fleming's side of the line.

And it's no wonder why.

"We call it jumbo," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "No. 71, they used (him) as an extra tight end. He comes in, reports eligible and you get a bigger guy on the edge at the point of attack. They did a nice job. They had a good scheme."

A good scheme indeed. But why didn't the Colts respond better? Why didn't they make better adjustments?

After talking with Pagano and players about this issue, it became clear they never fully got a handle on what was going on, allowing the Patriots to continue enjoying the advantage that came from having an extra blocker in the running game.

Thus the reason the Patriots used Fleming 37 times.

It was another inevitable Patriots wrinkle. And the Colts' inability to counter it contributed greatly to their decisive loss Sunday night.

http://www.indystar.com/story/colts-insider/2014/11/18/colts-patriots-extra-blockers-cameron-fleming/19200921/

 

[General Tso]

No way do I start him against the tough lions D and the expectation that the pats go pass heavy against them.

But if Gray does do well, I'm officially sold.

I know people aren't sold on Gray yet. But are you really sold on the Lions defense? Check out their schedule. They haven't really faced a lot of good rushing teams this season.

 

[zamboni]

No way do I start him against the tough lions D and the expectation that the pats go pass heavy against them.

But if Gray does do well, I'm officially sold.

I know people aren't sold on Gray yet. But are you really sold on the Lions defense? Check out their schedule. They haven't really faced a lot of good rushing teams this season.

They don't seem to be elite, but have a tough front. Let's say I'm less sold on Belichick - I think we can all agree on that.

 

[General Tso]

No way do I start him against the tough lions D and the expectation that the pats go pass heavy against them.

But if Gray does do well, I'm officially sold.

I know people aren't sold on Gray yet. But are you really sold on the Lions defense? Check out their schedule. They haven't really faced a lot of good rushing teams this season.

They don't seem to be elite, but have a tough front. Let's say I'm less sold on Belichick - I think we can all agree on that.

Good article on Detroit's defense - actually better than I thought http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nfcnorth&id=68854&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F%22%7DInteresting - they compare Detroit's run defense to the 2010 Steelers. The Pats played the Steelers In 2010 at the exact same point in the season and the Patriot RB's (led by Law Firm) put up respectable numbers - 23 carries for 100 yards. BB didn't shy away from the run that day.

 

[DropKick]

LOL!

"ESPN Boston expects a "different offensive approach" out of the Patriots in Sunday's Week 12 game against the Lions.

Recent Patriot gameplans when facing the Colts have been to smash them in the mouth with power runs. That is not going to work against a Lions defense that leads the league in rush yards allowed per game (68.8), YPC allowed (3.03) and is tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4). It's risky to project Bill Belichick's thoughts, but this certainly feels like a Shane Vereen game. Gray is more risky RB2 than many think off his four-touchdown outburst."

Ya don't say? It is a new week after all. Chase those points fellas!

LOL. You really think we should be listening to your advice after last week?

If you are stuck having to start a NE RB then you are in serious doo-doo. Who wants to chase the points and rack your brain trying to figure out who to start? And often, it doesn't matter who you start...you aren't going to get starter points. Unless you are in the deepest of leagues a NE RB is not worth starting. I'm in a 32 team ppr league with deep rosters, I have Vereen and even he has been a disappointment. Behind the likes of Matt Asiata, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, and Lamar Miller.
Ridley had two games this year where he notched over 20 carries. Week 2 (or 3) and 5 I believe. Since then, each RB has been sprinkled in a little.

It's not worth it just so you can come on here and say: "I started such and such NE RB this week and he scored 18 points! I told you so."

It's a total crapshoot and only worth it if you have zero other options.

Most people in here are in what...10 to 12 team leagues? LaFell, Edelman, and any NE RB probably aren't even in starting lineups in those types of leagues. UNLESS you have deep starting lineups.

For example, in my 12 team redraft with basic PPR scoring (not a lot of variables), out of Vereen, Lafell, Edelman, and Gray, ONLY Lafell is rostered and he's on the bench.

I don't have access to any of my standard scoring leagues at the moment, but I would bet that the outcome would be the same.

But seems to me you'd be pretty "clueless" if you did start them.

It takes some pretty big balls to be so emphatic about something, be completely and totally wrong about it, and then come back the following week and be emphatic again.

It also takes pretty big balls to wait until after something occurs, then try to claim that you "knew it all along," with no way of proving or disproving your stance.

This is a thread for discussing Gray. Some people (you, obviously) feel that he could be the difference in many FF leagues. Some people disagree. Why don't we just discuss the matter & leave our personal opinions out of it?

GENERAL TSO'S WACKY WARRIORS BOX SCORE STARTERS SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP STATUS ET PTS QB Robert Griffin, Wsh QBTB
L 7-27 18.5 RB Jamaal Charles, KC RBSea
W 24-20 29.8 RB Jonas Gray, NE RB@Ind
W 42-20 43.9 WR Reggie Wayne, Ind WRNE
L 20-42 9.1 WR A.J. Green, Cin WR@NO
W 27-10 18.7 TE Travis Kelce, KC TE PSea
W 24-20 3.7 FLEX Rueben Randle, NYG WRSF
L 10-16 11.2 D/ST Broncos D/ST D/ST@StL
L 7-22 3 K Shaun Suisham, Pit K@Ten
W 27-24 10147.9
TOTAL POINTS:Show Bench

Your other options were Knile Davis and AP with Murray on bye. You want a pat on the back because you decided to start him over Davis?

There's also this really cool thing called a waiver wire.

Where I'm sure there were other options with the potential for 10+ carries just sitting there....

Actually there were 15 other options out there with a higher projected point total than Gray last week, one of whom was on my bench.

Give it up Dude. I've got plenty of more evidence to share with you if you want to keep trolling. Instead, why not leave well enough alone and give credit where credit is due. Just raise that right hand hand up to your cap and tip it upward about an inch. You'll feel better.

Nice game, General!

 

[SengerCJ]

Not sure where I side in this debate, all I know is predicting decent games by any patriots RB or WR is a real headache.

Who remembers last season when blount put up 24/166/4 against the colts (hmmm sounds familiar), then the very next game put up 5/6/0 against Denver...

 

[Sabertooth]

That's the problem in a nutshell.