Some good stuff here. Hofburg is supposedly working great and I wouldn't discount Baffert/Hollendorfer underneath for big prices horses who are bred for the distance. Could be key to big tri's/supers.
Average winning distance a tool for unearthing longshots
By Joe Nevills
Print
No group of racehorses goes under a stronger microscope than the field for the Kentucky Derby. But even under the heaviest scrutiny, many things remain unknown about the entries until they cross the finish line.
One of the biggest variables that can only be forecasted at this point is the ability to handle the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance. It’s a distance no horse in the field has faced, and one that many in the field will never see again in competition.
Because there is no prior form to help gauge which horses are the most capable of getting the 1 1/4 miles, a useful tool to determine each entry’s potential is measuring the average winning distance of the progeny of a horse’s sire and dam.
AWD numbers can provide a snapshot of a horse’s ability to pass on stamina to his or her offspring, independent of the reputation that names in a pedigree can carry. The higher a sire or dam’s AWD, the more likely their foals can handle a route of ground, because they’ve already shown they can produce it consistently.
The AWD figures can help identify a longer-priced horse capable of filling out exotics based on their ingrained stamina.
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Horses who finished at or near the top of their race’s AWD rankings at double-digit odds include Derby runners-up Golden Soul (2013, 35-1) and Battle of Midway (2017, 33-1), 2013 Preakness winner Oxbow at 15-1, 2014 Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner at 28-1, and Belmont third-place finishers Keen Ice (2015, 17-1), Lani (2016, 12-1), and Patch (2017, 12-1).
Taking into account the comparative AWDs from the sires and dams of this year’s Derby field, a trio of mid- to long-priced runners stand out – Hofburg, Instilled Regard, and Solomini.
The parents of those three entries ranked no lower than fourth in their respective categories of sires and dams by the AWD of their offspring, giving them ideal crosses of past production toward distance capability compared with the other Derby runners.
Hofburg is by Tapit, who ranks second by AWD among this year’s Derby sire class at 7.58 furlongs, meaning the average distance of all the races won by Tapit foals levels out to about 7 1/2 furlongs. Though he’s still seeking his first Derby winner, Tapit has sired a trio of Belmont Stakes winners – Tonalist in 2014, Creator in 2016, and Tapwrit last year.
Soothing Touch, the dam of Hofburg, was third among the Derby broodmares, with her three winners succeeding at an average distance of 8.60 furlongs. Her first foal, the Empire Maker filly Emollient, is a Grade 1 winner at a 1 1/4 miles on the turf.
Instilled Regard is by Arch, who topped this year’s Derby sires with an AWD of 8.20 furlongs. Arch is the only sire in the field whose foals win at an average distance greater than a mile, nearly a half-furlong better than next-closest, Tapit. Arch’s high-end distance credentials are franked by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame, along with Canadian Horse of the Year Arravale, who won at 1 1/4 miles on turf.
Enhancing, Instilled Regard’s dam, ranked fourth among the Derby broodmares with an AWD of 8.41 furlongs. That figure is due entirely to Instilled Regard, his dam’s only winner from two starters, who has won at up to 1 1/16 miles.
Solomini is a son of Curlin, who ranked third among the Derby sires with an AWD of 7.57 furlongs, just a hundredth of a furlong behind second-place Tapit. Curlin also sends out sons Good Magic and Vino Rosso, who finished tied for fourth on the overall AWD rankings with Free Drop Billy.
Curlin is a proven classic sire, having been represented by a classic winner or classic-placed runner in each of his first five crops, including 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice and 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator.
Solomini is out of Surf Song, who posted an AWD of 8.62 furlongs to rank second among the mares. Of Surf Song’s five winners from seven foals to race, Solomini is the only one to have won a race at a distance shorter than 1 1/16 miles, having won a maiden race at 6 1/2 furlongs. However, Solomini also is the only stakes-placed runner among his siblings.
Trensa, the dam of Free Drop Billy, led this year’s Derby broodmares with an AWD of 9.61 furlongs, nearly the classic distance on its own. Her first foal, the Curlin mare Trensita, won her maiden at 1 3/8 miles, while Hawkbill, by Kitten’s Joy, has won seven times at 10 furlongs or longer, including the English Group 1 Coral-Eclipse Stakes and the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic.
Longshots Firenze Fire and Promises Fulfilled tied for last by their final AWD rankings, with their sires and dams each finishing last or second-to-last in their categories.
http://www.drf.com/news/average-winning-distance-tool-unearthing-longshots
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(visions of Malagacy/Gemologist ... the consecutive lane drifts). 
