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​ 🏛️ ​Official Supreme Court nomination thread - Amy Coney Barrett (2 Viewers)

[scooter] said:
There was a recent case in Oregon where a police officer was caught suppressing over 100 rape cases. (Whenever a rape case was assigned to him, he would just ignore it until the statute of limitations ran out; or he would destroy evidence and claim that the case was unsolvable.) There is evidence that some of his supervisors -- who happened to be his personal friends -- were aware of what he was doing. When he was finally confronted by another officer, his response was basically, "Hey, all women are liars. I just saved the state some money."

That guy was allowed to retire with honor and is currently collecting a lifetime pension of over $50K per year. None of his corrupt supervisors will ever see the slightest bit of disciplinary action, and none of those 100+ rape victims will ever see justice.
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So, Tuesday in America, then?

 
CurlyNight said:
Feel bad for Ford. She tried for years with therapy to bury it all. One thing you never forget are sounds and faces. They asked what % do you think it was him. 100.

What a slap in the face to her and all survivors.
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This is fairly irrelevant for determining accuracy of memory. It is a common mistake. People assume that confidence=accuracy.

It simply isn't true, and in some studies has actually had a negative correlation.

 
parasaurolophus said:
This is fairly irrelevant for determining accuracy of memory. It is a common mistake. People assume that confidence=accuracy.

It simply isn't true, and in some studies has actually had a negative correlation.
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Have you ever been in a truly traumatic situation with someone you already knew and been wrong about who it was?

 
tommyboy said:
Neither. They overplayed their week hands and are going to be punished at the ballot box. The blue wave could have been a tsunami but now it will be a 3 footer.
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In the 12 years that I have read your posts in this forum you have never once predicted a Democratic Party victory, not in one election. So you’ll forgive me if I don’t take too much stock in this. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
This is fairly irrelevant for determining accuracy of memory. It is a common mistake. People assume that confidence=accuracy.

It simply isn't true, and in some studies has actually had a negative correlation.
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Let’s say this was •possible FTSOA. 

How do you explain her identification of Mark Judge?

 
timschochet said:
In the 12 years that I have read your posts in this forum you have never once predicted a Democratic Party victory, not in one election. So you’ll forgive me if I don’t take too much stock in this. 
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Oh I think they'll win. I just think they won't win as bigly as they would have.

They had a chance to take both the house and Senate. I think that's gone.

And you're wrong. I thought Hillary would win 2 years ago

 
One of the only consistencies about true partisans on either side is that they always believe that their side will win the next election- and that it will be a slam dunk. 

And if this ever turns out not to be the case, they inevitably blame their candidates for not being a true liberal or a true conservative. They NEVER consider the fact that their own ideas might not be too popular. 

 
tommyboy said:
Oh I think they'll win. I just think they won't win as bigly as they would have.

They had a chance to take both the house and Senate. I think that's gone.

And you're wrong. I thought Hillary would win 2 years ago
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I don’t remember you posting it. I do remember your confidence about Romney. 

People think I picked Hillary to win too. I was FOR Hillary, but expressed my nervousness throughout that contest. 

 
tommyboy said:
They had a chance to take both the house and Senate. I think that's gone.
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I kind of figured the Senate was a mirage. A nice, wonderful mirage, but still a mirage. 

Winning the House will be enough for me. If they don’t win the House it’s a disaster. 

 
timschochet said:
I don’t remember you posting it. I do remember your confidence about Romney. 

People think I picked Hillary to win too. I was FOR Hillary, but expressed my nervousness throughout that contest. 
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Yeah my presidential election instincts suck. I figured McCain would lose but thought Romney and Hillary would win.

 
Henry Ford said:
Have you ever been in a truly traumatic situation with someone you already knew and been wrong about who it was?
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That is kind of a silly question to ask. How would I know if I was wrong if I was remembering it wrong? I also haven't had any traumatic situations in my life where I went 30 years without talking to somebody about it.   

You also yet again are drawing your conclusions based on the assumption that Ford's story was accurate. You assume that they knew each other. Then you use that information to draw your next conclusion about the accuracy of it. 

It was many many years later before she said a thing about it. 

You also purposely ignore the fact that in the article that has been linked like 5 times in this thread, there was an incorrect identification of one of the rapists. It happens. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
How would I know if I was wrong if I was remembering it wrong?
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Hypothetically if you came to me and said I did some thing and described it as involving friends I hung with at the sort of party I frequently did when I was in HS and I was a serious drinker, in all honesty I’d have to say ‘yeah I may have been there but I don’t remember’, I wouldn’t say ‘no way, didn’t happen, I never knew you, and that wasn’t me.’

 
parasaurolophus said:
That is kind of a silly question to ask. How would I know if I was wrong if I was remembering it wrong? I also haven't had any traumatic situations in my life where I went 30 years without talking to somebody about it.   

You also yet again are drawing your conclusions based on the assumption that Ford's story was accurate. You assume that they knew each other. Then you use that information to draw your next conclusion about the accuracy of it. 

It was many many years later before she said a thing about it. 

You also purposely ignore the fact that in the article that has been linked like 5 times in this thread, there was an incorrect identification of one of the rapists. It happens. 
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I see.  So they didn’t know each other but Kavanaugh doesn’t deny he knew her?

Edit: and she knew he and Judge were best buddies?

 
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Discussed this with a fellow DC district judge today.  He said Kavanaugh is a good guy but had horrible legal advise on how to handle the question.  

 
quickhands said:
Yes and yes
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We are going to have to agree to disagree on this.  I have absolutely no doubt that our current system is not sustainable.  The majority is not going to tolerate minority governance much longer.  It is un-American.  The only question is when and how, not if, it will end.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I'm always happy to learn something and you're likely more informed on this than me in this instance. - Ford has Bromwich and Katz as counsel, right? And Monica McLean has Laufman, right? And the concern is that Laufman worked at DOJ during the Hillary and Trump investigations? And Laufman and Bromwich have DeepStateTM connections? I really enjoy dot connecting but you're talking about ex-DOJ working in the world of Congressional hearings, and Katz was certainly not up for that. Browmwich had to quit his firm as a result. It's hard for me to even understand the claim.
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Really my point was along the lines that from the presentation she gave the impression that she was just an average zjane and had no idea how to get heard by the committee, when the reality was that she had a very close friend with ties to some very prominent people inside the beltway...

ill leave the conspiracy angle be, unless we learn something new (unlikely)

 
jon_mx said:
Discussed this with a fellow DC district judge today.  He said Kavanaugh is a good guy but had horrible legal advise on how to handle the question.  
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Oh, he definitely had terrible advice from someone for this whole process. There were winning answers to every question and he didn’t get any of them. 

 
The Renate thing: “every guy I know was an awkward boys’ school student who didn’t know any girls.  I think every single one of us begged our good friend Renate to go to a dance or a double date so we didn’t look like the losers we were. She saved every one of us at least once.”

Bam.  Done. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I’m saying, fine, maybe you (Ford) misremembered BK. How do you explain that she specifically recalled Judge being in the room and participating? She misremembered *two people and it just so happens they did indeed regularly party together?
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Oh gotcha. Tim has brought this up repeatedly. She obviously got their names somewhere. Could have been as simple as she didn't know who did it to her and barely saw them and was trying to figure out who it was. Saw them together and thinks she recognizes them. Maybe she saw him at the supermarket and thought he was the radio guy and then asked around who he hangs out with. Maybe she had a very different interaction with them and she remembers details incorrectly and they don't remember because it was the only time they ever met her and it was a very limited drunk interaction. There are literally countless ways it could have happened. 

These possibilities aren't thin air possibilities either. Her friend Leland saying she didn't know kavanaugh certainly keeps the option open that their interaction was extremely limited or non existent. I don't recall her saying if she didn't know Judge. 

I know the common thought is that trauma memories are different than other memories and no way could people forget them. But here is the thing, that is actually not really accurate(and in fact is sometimes the opposite) and it assumes what happened was in fact actually traumatic at the time or that it was traumatic in the exact way she says. 

You know what makes memories more likely to be retrieved incorrectly? Length of time between event and retrieval. You know what else does? Alcohol. Now of course the common counter here is to bring up Kavanaugh's drinking and say well you trust his memory? No. No I dont. I simply don't get to where I need to consider his memory. If I thought her memories were worthy of consideration that is when I would want to hear his version. I just don't give 36 year old memories a lot of weight when they literally sat in her head without any discussion, undocumented, and uncorroborated for at the very least 30 years. Could be more if we consider that she may have not actually had the discussion she claims she had in 2012 with her therapist now that there is at least the possibility she wasn't telling the truth about the notes.  

Now I am not making any defenses of his statements during the hearing. I was vocal in real time that he was saying really stupid things and that he was too partisan. I found the Clinton mention to be one of the most absurd things he could have said.  

I also understand that you may fully believe Ford. I am ok with that. I make judgments sometimes based on my gut for certain things and you would never get me off of them. There is of course the possibility that she is completely accurate, even though I assign that an extremely low probability. Him being an ### certainly wont persuade a lot of people away from believing her account that's for sure.

A funny story in my family, something that has made both mine and my sisters wedding programs, is how my sister and I have incredibly different memories of a situation from our youth. I obviously swear I am right, she swears she is right. It wasn't super traumatic in hindsight regardless of which account you trust, but at the time we were both very scared(or at least that's pretty much the one part we agree on). Interesting part about it is my dad had literally zero recollection.

 
Ford’s lawyers says she doesn’t want Kavanaugh impeached if Dems take control after the election. 

Cant link right now but its reported on CNN.com

 
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So.....this guy is going to get in.

Now there real question has to be asked.

Do they overturn Roe v Wade. This is a real potential reality with this guy being confirmed most likely. Do they overturn it and let each state decide on a woman's right to choose.

 
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Phil Elliott said:
Ford’s lawyers says she doesn’t want Kavanaugh impeached if Dems take control after the election. 

Cant link right now but its reported on CNN.
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All that would do is fire up the red states even more.

Move on......focus on trying to get the White House back.

Joe Biden....2020. 

 
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squistion said:
Or to put it another way:

51 Senators who represent 40% of the population will confirm a SCOTUS nominee who has the support of under 40% of the population, and was nominated by a man who came in 2nd in the popular vote.
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30 states were carried by Trump in his historic landslide. We all knew Supreme Court seats were at stake when we swept in President Trump.  Therefore, 60 Senators are obligated to support the will of the people and confirm Kavanaugh.  It looks like at least 9 Senators have a lot of explaining to do to their constituents.  

 
Todem said:
So.....this guy is going to get in.

Now there real question has to be asked.

Do they overturn Roe v Wade. This is a real potential reality with this guy being confirmed most likely. Do they overturn it and let each state decide on a woman's right to choose.
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Doubtful. 

 
Todem said:
So.....this guy is going to get in.

Now there real question has to be asked.

Do they overturn Roe v Wade. This is a real potential reality with this guy being confirmed most likely. Do they overturn it and let each state decide on a woman's right to choose.
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Susan Collins spent 45 minutes explaining why she was sure this couldn't happen.

 
bear said:
We are going to have to agree to disagree on this.  I have absolutely no doubt that our current system is not sustainable.  The majority is not going to tolerate minority governance much longer.  It is un-American.  The only question is when and how, not if, it will end.
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Bring it, Coasties.  Hell, California can't manage their water or their budget - they'd be broke and dehydrated before the first shot was fired, not to mention they're all either soft or high.  New Yorkers would be paralyzed with fear from all of the wide open spaces in middle America.  They wouldn't know what to do.

 
This mistaken identity #### is ridiculous. It's not as if she witnessed someone for 5 seconds trying to rob a convenience store. She is also not picking out a stranger out of a lineup. She ####### knew this dude and his friends. They ran in the same circle. If you belive her, and find her credible, it is a ####### cop out to temper than belief by stating "maybe she is just confused on who the actual person was that assaulted her".

 
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