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2021 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

rick6668 said:
I did the same
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I considered that strategy. One of my builds was like 30 players.

Then I started thinking about what even the best of that lineup could score & how other teams will have minimal lineups of $20+ players and whether I could compete with my scrubs.

Went with a balance with a mix of low, medium & elite investments at each spot instead. 

It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out this year. 

 
sooted72 said:
yeah probably not the ideal strategy but ive only made it to the playoffs once in like 10 years anyway. hope you and everyone else in here is doing well. too busy to be in here this year. kinda miss being unemployed like i was the last couple of augusts lol.
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Any strategy could work with the right players.  :hifive:

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I considered that strategy. One of my builds was like 30 players.

Then I started thinking about what even the best of that lineup could score & how other teams will have minimal lineups of $20+ players and whether I could compete with my scrubs.

Went with a balance with a mix of low, medium & elite investments at each spot instead. 

It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out this year. 
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Naturally I gravitate towards max roster size, but my better angel pushes me towards a smaller roster.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Then I started thinking about what even the best of that lineup could score & how other teams will have minimal lineups of $20+ players and whether I could compete with my scrubs.
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yeah this is a good point. survivorship bias dictates that even if you chose your scrubs correctly youll be up against other guys that did the same once cuts start happening. then you cant really win. so you pick your 8 cheap rbs and 3 of them hit and carry you deep into the contest. but now youre facing teams that have those 3 guys and najee harris.

i should say this: its pretty clear to me (and has been for years now) that the ideal lineup to win this contest is a small one with studs and a few fliers. i just think a lot of us play not to lose rather than to win (either consciously or subconsciously). which is definitely "wrong" but the weekly sweat is so much fun.

 
3 QB's, 6 RB's, 5 WR's, 2 TE's, 3 D's, 3 K's.

Achilles heal is week 7 with 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and a QB on bye.

22 players, first time I've gone with less then 3 at any position and 

with that small a roster but I like the guys I've picked.

Week 7 be damned as one RB and WR are ranked top 12.

The TE's are M Andrews and M Gesicki so I think i'm covered.

The 3 QB's are Stafford, Roethlesburger and Fitzpatrick, who total points wise

are probably ranked correctly but each week one of these guys will put up 18-22 points. 

I usually go with 3 at QB, TE, K, and D. So a small difference.

 
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SeniorVBDStudent said:
Tough night.

I had been roster stable for 2 or 3 days then I realized I can't stand Zeke Elliot and I can't trust Mostert, so I had to blow it all up.
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Dang, son….I went through my Zeke/Mostert phase like forever ago. I feel like such a hipster. Now if you’ll excuse me, imma go grow a beard & explore some some rare cable television classics that were tragically overlooked while I sip a latte & tighten my man bun. 

 
ok i threw this together in like 5 minutes just to see what it would look like if i actually built a small roster. here's what i came up with. i feel like this is the ideal lineup to win this contest (obviously i dont mean exactly these players, they are just the guys i happen to like the most). i tried with the bye weeks but since i obviously didnt hit submit idk if i got them exactly correct. anyway, without further ado, the lineup i WISH i could play...

russ $17

z wilson $6

tyrod $4

gibson $26

n harris $25

d harris $16

gus $11

rhamondre $3

ridley $27

mclaurin $23

jeudy $16

$10 wr (hardman, c davis, ab, ruggs)

callaway $5

edwards $4

mvs $3

hockenson $19

pitts $17

arnold $4

3 k $6

3 d $6

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dang, son….I went through my Zeke/Mostert phase like forever ago. I feel like such a hipster. Now if you’ll excuse me, imma go grow a beard & explore some some rare cable television classics that were tragically overlooked while I sip a latte & tighten my man bun. 
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binge watching Lucifer, anyone?

 
Rolling with 30, big roster as usual. Would go bigger if I could. I came up with a 40-player roster that would be tempting if it was street legal.

Still paying up for a few high-end players - 3 on my current roster, 2 on my 40-player monstrosity.

 
joey said:
Final iteration (I think).  24 player squad.

QB - 3 at $28

RB - 6 at $95 (just like my drafts, RB Heavy. It’s a sickness)

WR - 7 at $78

TE - 3 at $33

K - 3 at $9

D - 2 at $7

bye weeks

week 6 = 4 at $36

week 7 = 2 at $23

week 8 = 3 at $24

week 9 = 2 at $23

week 10 = none

week 11 = 6 at $69 (uh oh)

week 12 = none

week 13 = 5 at $64 (another uh oh week)

week 14 = 2 at $11

My toughest bye weeks are late but I’ve never made it past week 6 or 7 in this contest anyway, so this could be my best year yet!
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Ok. I had to make ONE LAST TWEAK to avert a Week 11 Bye Disaster. 
I went from 6 RBs at $95 to 5 RBs at $96, and I reduced my WR cost by $1 to 7 WRs at $77. 
The RB change reduced Week 11 by $24 (down to $44) and increases Week 7 by $25 (up to $48)
and the WR swap reduced week 8 by $10 (down to $14) and increased week 14 by $9 (up to $20)  

This all makes perfect sense, right? ;)  

 
joey said:
Ok. I had to make ONE LAST TWEAK to avert a Week 11 Bye Disaster. 
I went from 6 RBs at $95 to 5 RBs at $96, and I reduced my WR cost by $1 to 7 WRs at $77. 
The RB change reduced Week 11 by $24 (down to $44) and increases Week 7 by $25 (up to $48)
and the WR swap reduced week 8 by $10 (down to $14) and increased week 14 by $9 (up to $20)  

This all makes perfect sense, right? ;)  
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Even though my head starts to hurt when I read this, it 100% makes sense....I have a problem.

I have been tempted to screw with my 1 Bye week roster where I have more than 1 on bye but I'm done.....I think. 

 
28 Players

3 QBs for $29

6 RBs for $100

9 WRs for $70

3 TEs for $31

4 Ks for $11

3 Ds for $9

Wish I could find a way to 30 players and feel like I have too much in RBs in terms of $, but I really don't want to move off who I've got there.

 
Was there a lot of discussion about this change:

A fixed percentage (25%) of entries will be cut each week, rather than a fixed number, as has been the case in previous years.

Seems pretty impactful.

 
(HULK) said:
Was there a lot of discussion about this change:

A fixed percentage (25%) of entries will be cut each week, rather than a fixed number, as has been the case in previous years.

Seems pretty impactful.
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yes, that and covid imply a need for deeper rosters or a higher premium on picking the right guys with shallow rosters.

 
fightingillini said:
Mostert was in one my iterations and thought the same thing.  Mostert would be great in this format but you can't trust him to stay healthy, so I scrapped him.
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Which, of course, almost everyone is thinking, so the 1% who roster him will have a contest winner when he shockingly stays healthy for 17 game & blows up every couple weeks making him the outlier jackpot player. 

 
And I am now finally done. I mean really, no more tweaks. I do not have time today or tomorrow so this is the final and I mean final roster set.

  • QB - 3 at $33 - made a change to get one dude that is priced at top ten
  • RB - 7 at $71 - made some edits to add depth and I have it with seven guys, even though a couple may or may not be third stringers
  • WR - 8 at $91 - depth is such a necessity with WRs who have such variance week to week
  • TE - 4 at $38 - feel ok about this
  • K - 3 at $9 - three kickers, please do not get cut
  • D - 3 at $8 
bye weeks

  • week 6 = 3 at $16
  • week 7 = 6 at $61 - six NFL teams on bye this week
  • week 8 = 5 at $37
  • week 9 = 1 at $17
  • week 10 = 2 at $26
  • week 11 = 1 at $3
  • week 12 = 2 at $13
  • week 13 = 4 at $47 - one of my studs is out this week
  • week 14 = 4 at $30 - two guys out here for one position, but I just have to do it
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Which, of course, almost everyone is thinking, so the 1% who roster him will have a contest winner when he shockingly stays healthy for 17 game & blows up every couple weeks making him the outlier jackpot player. 
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That's if they can get to the final.  Mostert's price is too high for the ups and downs.  But point taken, you have to take risks to win this contest, and someone wants to bet on Mostert, fine.  And it's probably good if then than 5% are rostering him.

Won't be me....I am taking risks elsewhere.

 
fightingillini said:
That's if they can get to the final.  Mostert's price is too high for the ups and downs.  But point taken, you have to take risks to win this contest, and someone wants to bet on Mostert, fine.  And it's probably good if then than 5% are rostering him.

Won't be me....I am taking risks elsewhere.
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Oh, same. I’m a Niner fan and would love to roster him, but I’m also a Niner fan & know he can’t stay on the field. But also, as a Niner fan I feel like he’s going to stay just healthy enough to keep Sermon a borderline flex dart throw, while the Niner fan in me also has concerns about Hasty’s improvements & Wilson coming off the IR in week 8. 

 
joey said:
Ok. I had to make ONE LAST TWEAK to avert a Week 11 Bye Disaster. 
I went from 6 RBs at $95 to 5 RBs at $96, and I reduced my WR cost by $1 to 7 WRs at $77. 
The RB change reduced Week 11 by $24 (down to $44) and increases Week 7 by $25 (up to $48)
and the WR swap reduced week 8 by $10 (down to $14) and increased week 14 by $9 (up to $20)  

This all makes perfect sense, right? ;)  
Click to expand...
And I’ve changed it once more since this "last tweak". I’m gonna shut up now and not bother trying to summarize my rosters here. Good luck everyone!

 
rzrback77 said:
And I am now finally done. I mean really, no more tweaks. I do not have time today or tomorrow so this is the final and I mean final roster set.

  • QB - 3 at $33 - made a change to get one dude that is priced at top ten
  • RB - 7 at $71 - made some edits to add depth and I have it with seven guys, even though a couple may or may not be third stringers
  • WR - 8 at $91 - depth is such a necessity with WRs who have such variance week to week
  • TE - 4 at $38 - feel ok about this
  • K - 3 at $9 - three kickers, please do not get cut
  • D - 3 at $8 
bye weeks

  • week 6 = 3 at $16
  • week 7 = 6 at $61 - six NFL teams on bye this week
  • week 8 = 5 at $37
  • week 9 = 1 at $17
  • week 10 = 2 at $26
  • week 11 = 1 at $3
  • week 12 = 2 at $13
  • week 13 = 4 at $47 - one of my studs is out this week
  • week 14 = 4 at $30 - two guys out here for one position, but I just have to do it
Click to expand...
FYI - its been almost an hour and I have not made a change, I believe this one is a chicken dinner

 
Officially done!  Team Fightingillini......with 23 players (I usually go with 23 or 24 players every year).   Gambling on only 4 RBs, but they all should get a lot of touches and all have different bye weeks.  Went cheap at WR, and paid up for Kelce who should be a beast in this format.  I had Brady and Darnold in for the longest time, but having Brady and Gibson out the same week was tough....I didn't like the RB options around Gibson, so I went with Rodgers and Z Wilson, now Week 9 is my largest bye exposure at $43, and most of the weeks my bye week exposure is between $20 and $33.

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/13 - $17
QB - Zach Wilson - NYJ/6 - $8
QB - Teddy Bridgewater - DEN/11 - $5
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/9 - $26
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/10 - $22
RB - James Robinson - JAX/7 - $16
RB - Gus Edwards - BAL/8 - $11
WR - Robert Woods - LAR/11 - $22
WR - Chase Claypool - PIT/7 - $17
WR - Corey Davis - NYJ/6 - $10
WR - Antonio Brown - TB/9 - $10
WR - Michael Pittman - IND/14 - $9
WR - Jakobi Meyers - NE/14 - $6
WR - Marquez Callaway - NO/6 - $5
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $30
TE - Jonnu Smith - NE/14 - $9
TE - Gerald Everett - SEA/9 - $7
PK - Younghoe Koo - ATL/6 - $4
PK - Daniel Carlson - LV/8 - $3
PK - Jake Elliott - PHI/14 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/6 - $4
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/10 - $3
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/13 - $3

 
all your roosters are belong to us!!

inconceivably switched from large to small this year. Several cheaper options I covet got cut from the squad. madness I tell ya!

3 QB $31 mix of high floor & boom bust

5 RB $81 one player needs an injury to shine. The rest bubble wrap and chewing gum to stay healthy for 17 weeks

6 WR $87 paid up for strength leaving several great cheaper options behind 

3 TE $39 my track record of snagging cheap breakout players is the worst.  My apologies for anyone else who lands on my band wagon. Recent years were Dissley and Herndon. Need I say more?

cheap K and D

 
Interesting rule changes this year too.  No more free passes first week or two. The Turk doesn’t get a bye week. 
Not a math wiz but it looks like we need around 5,612 entries minimum to have 100 teams left at the end for prizes. It’ll be interesting to see how many make the 3 week finals. 
Also, I think this means it’s more important to roster less unique players. Surfing the ebb n flow of the tide keeps you above the cut longer. 

 
Philosophical question:

If you spend a huge amount of time fretting over bye weeks, you can end up taking players you'd rather not, to maximize your "survivability".  But if these players are on teams that will know by Week 15 or 16 that they have no shot to make the playoffs, what's the point of "surviving" if your team shrivels in the finals?  Teams like Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston come to mind....

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Philosophical question:

If you spend a huge amount of time fretting over bye weeks, you can end up taking players you'd rather not, to maximize your "survivability".  But if these players are on teams that will know by Week 15 or 16 that they have no shot to make the playoffs, what's the point of "surviving" if your team shrivels in the finals?  Teams like Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston come to mind....
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You play....to win....the game! 

/Herm

 
Shudder to think how much time I'd have spent tweaking if I lived somewhere that could win stuff rather than just set and forget after the Dobbins injury

 
QB- Winston, Big Ben, Mayfield

RBs- Jav Willams, J. Robinson, D Harris, Dav Johnson, G. Edward's, Hyde

WRs- Evans, Claypool, Chark, Marq. Brown, A. Brown, Parker, Cobb, AJ Greene, Callaway, Crowder, Humphries, Scantling.

TEs- Cook, Arnold, Doyle.

3 cheap Ds and KS. Didn't want to let yall know who they were. They are my difference makers the ones who are going to win this for me.

 
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I broke down and changed it.....again. Godwin having limited practice with knee issue finally made me decide to cut bait as well as Zeke (like many others in here I just can't stand him but the fumbles and lack of TD's his price is just too high) so I re-did it and now have 24 instead of 23 players with a new lead dog in the WR room and still have 2 top end RB's to go with the value guys. Time will tell, hurry up and lock so I can be put out of my misery.....please!!!

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Philosophical question:

If you spend a huge amount of time fretting over bye weeks, you can end up taking players you'd rather not, to maximize your "survivability".  But if these players are on teams that will know by Week 15 or 16 that they have no shot to make the playoffs, what's the point of "surviving" if your team shrivels in the finals?  Teams like Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston come to mind....
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Fretting is right.  Even for a SF player choosing between Mostart and Sermon.  Will Mostart rest more at the end approaching playoffs even IF he stays healthy?  Way over think this sometimes 😂 

so to answer your question, yes I consider it and take action on who can help me get there and hopefully be relevant at the end. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Any strategy could work with the right players.  :hifive:
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So that’s what I’ve been doing wrong all these years. 

sooted72 said:
yeah this is a good point. survivorship bias dictates that even if you chose your scrubs correctly youll be up against other guys that did the same once cuts start happening. then you cant really win. so you pick your 8 cheap rbs and 3 of them hit and carry you deep into the contest. but now youre facing teams that have those 3 guys and najee harris.

i should say this: its pretty clear to me (and has been for years now) that the ideal lineup to win this contest is a small one with studs and a few fliers. i just think a lot of us play not to lose rather than to win (either consciously or subconsciously). which is definitely "wrong" but the weekly sweat is so much fun.
Click to expand...
good point. So many of us focus on value. 

 
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