Mister CIA
Footballguy
Opportunity Cost would be an excellent name for this contest.
Good luck with that.my new strategy for 2021: scrubs and scrubs. no players over $16.
I did the samemy new strategy for 2021: scrubs and scrubs. no players over $16.
I considered that strategy. One of my builds was like 30 players.I did the same
I haven’t changed since Friday. Do I get an engraved chip for that or something?also im on just over 48 hrs with no changes. that has to be the leader on here, right?
yeah probably not the ideal strategy but ive only made it to the playoffs once in like 10 years anyway. hope you and everyone else in here is doing well. too busy to be in here this year. kinda miss being unemployed like i was the last couple of augusts lol.Good luck with that.
Any strategy could work with the right players.yeah probably not the ideal strategy but ive only made it to the playoffs once in like 10 years anyway. hope you and everyone else in here is doing well. too busy to be in here this year. kinda miss being unemployed like i was the last couple of augusts lol.
I haven’t changed since Friday. Do I get an engraved chip for that or something?
Naturally I gravitate towards max roster size, but my better angel pushes me towards a smaller roster.I considered that strategy. One of my builds was like 30 players.
Then I started thinking about what even the best of that lineup could score & how other teams will have minimal lineups of $20+ players and whether I could compete with my scrubs.
Went with a balance with a mix of low, medium & elite investments at each spot instead.
It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out this year.
Then I started thinking about what even the best of that lineup could score & how other teams will have minimal lineups of $20+ players and whether I could compete with my scrubs.
my new strategy for 2021: scrubs and scrubs. no players over $16.
Dang, son….I went through my Zeke/Mostert phase like forever ago. I feel like such a hipster. Now if you’ll excuse me, imma go grow a beard & explore some some rare cable television classics that were tragically overlooked while I sip a latte & tighten my man bun.Tough night.
I had been roster stable for 2 or 3 days then I realized I can't stand Zeke Elliot and I can't trust Mostert, so I had to blow it all up.
binge watching Lucifer, anyone?Dang, son….I went through my Zeke/Mostert phase like forever ago. I feel like such a hipster. Now if you’ll excuse me, imma go grow a beard & explore some some rare cable television classics that were tragically overlooked while I sip a latte & tighten my man bun.
The Wire, in honor of Michael K Williams.binge watching Lucifer, anyone?
Ok. I had to make ONE LAST TWEAK to avert a Week 11 Bye Disaster.Final iteration (I think). 24 player squad.
QB - 3 at $28
RB - 6 at $95 (just like my drafts, RB Heavy. It’s a sickness)
WR - 7 at $78
TE - 3 at $33
K - 3 at $9
D - 2 at $7
bye weeks
week 6 = 4 at $36
week 7 = 2 at $23
week 8 = 3 at $24
week 9 = 2 at $23
week 10 = none
week 11 = 6 at $69 (uh oh)
week 12 = none
week 13 = 5 at $64 (another uh oh week)
week 14 = 2 at $11
My toughest bye weeks are late but I’ve never made it past week 6 or 7 in this contest anyway, so this could be my best year yet!
Even though my head starts to hurt when I read this, it 100% makes sense....I have a problem.Ok. I had to make ONE LAST TWEAK to avert a Week 11 Bye Disaster.
I went from 6 RBs at $95 to 5 RBs at $96, and I reduced my WR cost by $1 to 7 WRs at $77.
The RB change reduced Week 11 by $24 (down to $44) and increases Week 7 by $25 (up to $48)
and the WR swap reduced week 8 by $10 (down to $14) and increased week 14 by $9 (up to $20)
This all makes perfect sense, right?
yes, that and covid imply a need for deeper rosters or a higher premium on picking the right guys with shallow rosters.Was there a lot of discussion about this change:
A fixed percentage (25%) of entries will be cut each week, rather than a fixed number, as has been the case in previous years.
Seems pretty impactful.
Don’t forget the dress code.yes, that and covid imply a need for deeper rosters or a higher premium on picking the right guys with shallow rosters.
Mostert was in one my iterations and thought the same thing. Mostert would be great in this format but you can't trust him to stay healthy, so I scrapped him.Tough night.
I had been roster stable for 2 or 3 days then I realized I can't stand Zeke Elliot and I can't trust Mostert, so I had to blow it all up.
Which, of course, almost everyone is thinking, so the 1% who roster him will have a contest winner when he shockingly stays healthy for 17 game & blows up every couple weeks making him the outlier jackpot player.Mostert was in one my iterations and thought the same thing. Mostert would be great in this format but you can't trust him to stay healthy, so I scrapped him.
That's if they can get to the final. Mostert's price is too high for the ups and downs. But point taken, you have to take risks to win this contest, and someone wants to bet on Mostert, fine. And it's probably good if then than 5% are rostering him.Which, of course, almost everyone is thinking, so the 1% who roster him will have a contest winner when he shockingly stays healthy for 17 game & blows up every couple weeks making him the outlier jackpot player.
Oh, same. I’m a Niner fan and would love to roster him, but I’m also a Niner fan & know he can’t stay on the field. But also, as a Niner fan I feel like he’s going to stay just healthy enough to keep Sermon a borderline flex dart throw, while the Niner fan in me also has concerns about Hasty’s improvements & Wilson coming off the IR in week 8.That's if they can get to the final. Mostert's price is too high for the ups and downs. But point taken, you have to take risks to win this contest, and someone wants to bet on Mostert, fine. And it's probably good if then than 5% are rostering him.
Won't be me....I am taking risks elsewhere.
And I’ve changed it once more since this "last tweak". I’m gonna shut up now and not bother trying to summarize my rosters here. Good luck everyone!Ok. I had to make ONE LAST TWEAK to avert a Week 11 Bye Disaster.
I went from 6 RBs at $95 to 5 RBs at $96, and I reduced my WR cost by $1 to 7 WRs at $77.
The RB change reduced Week 11 by $24 (down to $44) and increases Week 7 by $25 (up to $48)
and the WR swap reduced week 8 by $10 (down to $14) and increased week 14 by $9 (up to $20)
This all makes perfect sense, right?
FYI - its been almost an hour and I have not made a change, I believe this one is a chicken dinnerAnd I am now finally done. I mean really, no more tweaks. I do not have time today or tomorrow so this is the final and I mean final roster set.
bye weeks
- QB - 3 at $33 - made a change to get one dude that is priced at top ten
- RB - 7 at $71 - made some edits to add depth and I have it with seven guys, even though a couple may or may not be third stringers
- WR - 8 at $91 - depth is such a necessity with WRs who have such variance week to week
- TE - 4 at $38 - feel ok about this
- K - 3 at $9 - three kickers, please do not get cut
- D - 3 at $8
- week 6 = 3 at $16
- week 7 = 6 at $61 - six NFL teams on bye this week
- week 8 = 5 at $37
- week 9 = 1 at $17
- week 10 = 2 at $26
- week 11 = 1 at $3
- week 12 = 2 at $13
- week 13 = 4 at $47 - one of my studs is out this week
- week 14 = 4 at $30 - two guys out here for one position, but I just have to do it
Almost an hour?FYI - its been almost an hour and I have not made a change, I believe this one is a chicken dinner
You play....to win....the game!Philosophical question:
If you spend a huge amount of time fretting over bye weeks, you can end up taking players you'd rather not, to maximize your "survivability". But if these players are on teams that will know by Week 15 or 16 that they have no shot to make the playoffs, what's the point of "surviving" if your team shrivels in the finals? Teams like Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston come to mind....
Fretting is right. Even for a SF player choosing between Mostart and Sermon. Will Mostart rest more at the end approaching playoffs even IF he stays healthy? Way over think this sometimesPhilosophical question:
If you spend a huge amount of time fretting over bye weeks, you can end up taking players you'd rather not, to maximize your "survivability". But if these players are on teams that will know by Week 15 or 16 that they have no shot to make the playoffs, what's the point of "surviving" if your team shrivels in the finals? Teams like Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston come to mind....
So that’s what I’ve been doing wrong all these years.Hot Sauce Guy said:Any strategy could work with the right players.
good point. So many of us focus on value.sooted72 said:yeah this is a good point. survivorship bias dictates that even if you chose your scrubs correctly youll be up against other guys that did the same once cuts start happening. then you cant really win. so you pick your 8 cheap rbs and 3 of them hit and carry you deep into the contest. but now youre facing teams that have those 3 guys and najee harris.
i should say this: its pretty clear to me (and has been for years now) that the ideal lineup to win this contest is a small one with studs and a few fliers. i just think a lot of us play not to lose rather than to win (either consciously or subconsciously). which is definitely "wrong" but the weekly sweat is so much fun.
You play....to win....the game!
/Herm
it seems pretty simple when I write it out like that, huh?So that’s what I’ve been doing wrong all these years.
And you let them off the hook!Yeah...but your team HSG is who we thought they were.