Todem
Footballguy
I have always stayed the hell away from airline stocks…..simply too unpredictable for my tastes.
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Stock Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Anyone invest in high-yield corporate debt? Kicking around the idea of shifting a little (like 5-10%) of my equity allocation to that, likely via an ETF, but haven't ever invested in it before. Just starting to look into it, so of course I'm starting with all you experts here.
Sand
Footballguy
Have a big bunch of this already, but just threw the dividend remainders I had at it and added a few more.
Sand
Footballguy
How bad is the bond market? Take a look at the drawdown
Global macro, systematic investing, alternative risk premia
mrzepczynski.blogspot.com
This is where bonds are. Interesting couple graphs.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Every time I think I know which way the bond market is going, I’m proven very wrong. I’m staying away for awhile. More than anything I think demand for US bonds has dried up significantly between Japan, China and the Fed itself. That alone should push rates even higher but it just seems like rate should drop soon. So…..I have no idea.How bad is the bond market? Take a look at the drawdown
Global macro, systematic investing, alternative risk premia
This is where bonds are. Interesting couple graphs.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Is today's drop creating an entry point on CAT? I associate it with DE even though they serve different customers.
Todem
Footballguy
CAT is looking very attractive now on a forward PE basis. Great company.
General Malaise
Footballguy
AMD is up 8 dollars and that's nice.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Ugh, wish I'd followed through with buying some SHOP pre-earnings.
Todem
Footballguy
Santa Claus rally is starting.
We talked about a nice rally into year end as the market gets confirmation of the Fed pausing/standing pat.
2 and 10 year Treasury yields making some big moves downward….which weakens the dollar.
So the thesis for 2024 still stands.
Broad bond rally in the first half…..with a mild recession potentially and the Fed makes it’s first interest rate cut at the start of 4th quarter 2024 to start the new cyclical bull heading into 2025.
Black swains aside….this is where I see things going.
We talked about a nice rally into year end as the market gets confirmation of the Fed pausing/standing pat.
2 and 10 year Treasury yields making some big moves downward….which weakens the dollar.
So the thesis for 2024 still stands.
Broad bond rally in the first half…..with a mild recession potentially and the Fed makes it’s first interest rate cut at the start of 4th quarter 2024 to start the new cyclical bull heading into 2025.
Black swains aside….this is where I see things going.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Today we're seeing the long awaited Texas Rangers market rally!!!!! 
Capella
Footballguy
You nailed it. Thanks for all the posts/guidance. I’ve made a lot of money this year.
GB Amazon at 118 last week. Cherry on top of the sundae this year.
Love what I'm reading here and what we're seeing in the markets, of course. My question is about this phrase "mild recession" used by todem because I'm having a hard time seeing it. We've had such a huge move in rates, the commercial real estate market continues to be hammered and the pain is coming to roost (I think) in residential real estate. The fed has slammed the brakes on folks buying houses, everyone is hunkering down and yet we have inflated home prices with such thin supply. Why won't this be a fierce recession rather than a mild one? Feels like the housing market is getting hit and the fed is only going to be happy once they kill off job growth. Or, put another way, we've had so much candy in the years heading into the pandemic and then another shot of sugar because we needed to prop up the economy in '20--coming down off that sugar high is going to cause big headaches, not mild ones.
I would be super happy should the santa rally hold, mild recession, stock market bull rally second half of 2024 into 2025.
But, I am not seeing anything close to that, at all. Set aside the geopolitical issues that there are no way for us to predict current outcomes or foresee future issues (and again, trust me that I would be more than pleased if the issues in the middle east and Ukraine were sorted sooner rather than later to a peaceful outcome), there are major issues in the US economy that I just don't see us pushing through without a problem.
Something like 60% of the companies in the Russell 5000 are unprofitable. That's a lot. This economy is driven by small businesses and the consumer. If small businesses are not making money, they need to borrow money and well, the interest rates today are pretty steep. If they are unable to pay back this debt well this leads to a lot of bad things. Companies go bankrupt, jobs get cut, banks have charge offs, and so on. Larger companies had already refinanced while rates were lower (think airlines, cruiselines, etc...) but smaller companies were not so lucky.
Within a few years, the interest obligation that the government will owe will be higher than Medicare obligations. Just let that set in for a second. If you think entitlements are not going to need to be cut, where do you think this additional money is coming from? Higher taxes are a hard sell for any one to push through, but are also going to be necessary. If the budget doesn't get balanced or at least under control relatively soon, this thing is going into a death spiral. I heard the other day someone comparing the current US economy to Japans about 20-25 years ago and well, it made a lot of sense. Japan's stock market has been dead money for over 20 years now.
The Fed's desire to get inflation down to 2% is really misguided, imo. Yes, it needs to go lower, but it cannot go from 8-9% to 2% in 9 months or a year, or two years. It takes time. And if you trust the Fed to get this right, I think you're going to be sorely disappointed. The job market is strong now, but if you see unemployment start to rise and think hey this is great for inflation, well, not sure how great 2% inflation is if you're not working. They've been slow to react, and/or overreacted so many times I don't know how anyone can think they are going to get it right now.
The stock market 'rally' this year has really been just a small number of stocks. I know this is pretty common knowledge, but I just don't see a broad based recovery and bull market under current conditions. I'd be much more optimistic long term if rates were slightly lower, there was a definitive pause in rates as well and our government wasn't spending money like they were printing it. Oh wait....
And don't forget about the massive government spends coming up that haven't even started yet!
Again, I'd be happy to be wrong. I'm all geared up for early retirement and end of 2024 would sound great to me. But I really think if we're lucky, we see flat returns over the next 24-36 months. And God forbid China decides that while the U.S. is having a bit of economic difficulty with their spend, and trying to aid allies in Israel and the Ukraine, they do more than rattle their sabers at Taiwan, then it's watch out below. I guess the only kind of 'good news' coming up is that next year is an election year and typically certain sectors will do better in election years if one party is favored over another so that may help a bit, but I see no reasons to be overly optimistic anytime soon.
But, I am not seeing anything close to that, at all. Set aside the geopolitical issues that there are no way for us to predict current outcomes or foresee future issues (and again, trust me that I would be more than pleased if the issues in the middle east and Ukraine were sorted sooner rather than later to a peaceful outcome), there are major issues in the US economy that I just don't see us pushing through without a problem.
Something like 60% of the companies in the Russell 5000 are unprofitable. That's a lot. This economy is driven by small businesses and the consumer. If small businesses are not making money, they need to borrow money and well, the interest rates today are pretty steep. If they are unable to pay back this debt well this leads to a lot of bad things. Companies go bankrupt, jobs get cut, banks have charge offs, and so on. Larger companies had already refinanced while rates were lower (think airlines, cruiselines, etc...) but smaller companies were not so lucky.
Within a few years, the interest obligation that the government will owe will be higher than Medicare obligations. Just let that set in for a second. If you think entitlements are not going to need to be cut, where do you think this additional money is coming from? Higher taxes are a hard sell for any one to push through, but are also going to be necessary. If the budget doesn't get balanced or at least under control relatively soon, this thing is going into a death spiral. I heard the other day someone comparing the current US economy to Japans about 20-25 years ago and well, it made a lot of sense. Japan's stock market has been dead money for over 20 years now.
The Fed's desire to get inflation down to 2% is really misguided, imo. Yes, it needs to go lower, but it cannot go from 8-9% to 2% in 9 months or a year, or two years. It takes time. And if you trust the Fed to get this right, I think you're going to be sorely disappointed. The job market is strong now, but if you see unemployment start to rise and think hey this is great for inflation, well, not sure how great 2% inflation is if you're not working. They've been slow to react, and/or overreacted so many times I don't know how anyone can think they are going to get it right now.
The stock market 'rally' this year has really been just a small number of stocks. I know this is pretty common knowledge, but I just don't see a broad based recovery and bull market under current conditions. I'd be much more optimistic long term if rates were slightly lower, there was a definitive pause in rates as well and our government wasn't spending money like they were printing it. Oh wait....
And don't forget about the massive government spends coming up that haven't even started yet!
Again, I'd be happy to be wrong. I'm all geared up for early retirement and end of 2024 would sound great to me. But I really think if we're lucky, we see flat returns over the next 24-36 months. And God forbid China decides that while the U.S. is having a bit of economic difficulty with their spend, and trying to aid allies in Israel and the Ukraine, they do more than rattle their sabers at Taiwan, then it's watch out below. I guess the only kind of 'good news' coming up is that next year is an election year and typically certain sectors will do better in election years if one party is favored over another so that may help a bit, but I see no reasons to be overly optimistic anytime soon.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
FTNT...ouch
Todem
Footballguy
We have been in a 2 year bear market so far.
2022 both the bond and stock market got hit very hard. And for the most part that has continued in 2023. We are all aware in here that the S&P has been driven hard by 7-9 stocks……and that’s it.
While I agree there are definitely some more headwinds ahead…..the economy has proven extremely resilient. I don’t think stocks will do much for 9 months of 2024…..but once the Fed does realize 2% inflation is a pipe dream….and we continue to see this restrictive interest rate environment cause havoc in real estate and the auto market the Fed will again use their tools to re-inflate the balloon. It’s all cyclical. And while it may look like Japan…..we are not Japan.
There are great opportunities in staples and utilities/telecommunications. When I see that I get really bullish. Everyone has to eat, turn on the lights, brush their teeth, etc etc etc. And pretty much knowing IMO the rates will drop again….there will be a run in these sectors again come year end 2024. Also some great industrials and materials look like strong value to me on a forward multiple basis.
I can’t speak to politics and what the US budget will look like with a potential new administration (odds are high imo we will have a new administration)…..but yes there will be challenges.
I am an eternal bull as you all know…..and I believe we will get through 2024 and spring board into 2025 with a more accommodating Fed monetary policy.
I won’t comment on the Israeli war on Hamas….I can’t sit here and say what will happen in the short term with that situation and it’s potential effects on the markets in the near term.
2022 both the bond and stock market got hit very hard. And for the most part that has continued in 2023. We are all aware in here that the S&P has been driven hard by 7-9 stocks……and that’s it.
While I agree there are definitely some more headwinds ahead…..the economy has proven extremely resilient. I don’t think stocks will do much for 9 months of 2024…..but once the Fed does realize 2% inflation is a pipe dream….and we continue to see this restrictive interest rate environment cause havoc in real estate and the auto market the Fed will again use their tools to re-inflate the balloon. It’s all cyclical. And while it may look like Japan…..we are not Japan.
There are great opportunities in staples and utilities/telecommunications. When I see that I get really bullish. Everyone has to eat, turn on the lights, brush their teeth, etc etc etc. And pretty much knowing IMO the rates will drop again….there will be a run in these sectors again come year end 2024. Also some great industrials and materials look like strong value to me on a forward multiple basis.
I can’t speak to politics and what the US budget will look like with a potential new administration (odds are high imo we will have a new administration)…..but yes there will be challenges.
I am an eternal bull as you all know…..and I believe we will get through 2024 and spring board into 2025 with a more accommodating Fed monetary policy.
I won’t comment on the Israeli war on Hamas….I can’t sit here and say what will happen in the short term with that situation and it’s potential effects on the markets in the near term.
Up about 20% on the half I kept. Sold the other half at $470. Man, do I regret not dumping everything into cash back then in the crazy end of 2021 days and then pushing back all in at the start of this year. That would have been nice. Glad I didn’t panic and sell at the bottom so I guess there’s that.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Time to start piling into TLT for massive 1-3 year gains?!?!
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
It seems so obvious that there's no way that will work.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
It's really hard to have a "fierce" or any type of real recession without significant dislocation in the labor market. People are not being fired/laid off in anywhere near enough of a quantity to really impact overall growth. So far the Fed has threaded that needle.
Sand
Footballguy
First thing to go in a recession. And it seems to be holding for now.
Steeler
Footballguy
This reminds me of something that stood out when I recently re-watched The Big Short - the guys who saw what was coming in 2008 were early. Now I'm not comparing then to now, I'm just pointing out some people saw the trouble on the horizon before everyone else back then. I don't know anything about stocks/investing/etc. and I'm not making any predictions. Just sharing that thought.
It's happening!
That's funny. My daughter, when she was learning to sit on the toilet to go #2, used to exclaim "It's happening!" when she was making BM progress.
Nugget
Footballguy
Hammer TMF and hold on for dear life.
Sand
Footballguy
Bought a big pile at 85 a while back. Fingers crossed.
Sand
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
Giddyup
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Got a decent position in ~20 year strips that I bought around 40
McBokonon
Footballguy
Yeah, so technically I sold it in the hundreds. I remember someone posted in here about how it jumped up a ton and I went to the stock and was like WTF, why did I sell and then I looked at the 1 year chart and saw the old prices. Found a reverse split article and felt better about selling way back when.is that true? That’s hilarious.
Our moon biotech picks in here have been less than stellar in the end. I guess that makes sense as I’d think most moonshots do fail. Still wonder what that Whyatt guy did with HGEN. He said he bought a ton (seemed true based on his cost basis lowering numbers) and then disappeared when it tanked. That and CYDY are the only ones that seemed to attract a good chunk of interest in here.
TMDX has done very well. But they already had an FDA approved product when it first came up here.
$TMDX
I need to get in on that. I had no idea it dropped so much. Maybe I’ll dump some other stocks in that area instead of using cash. I will say that the amount of stocks I’ve had that have gone up 10-30% in a day since earnings season started has been nice. Some like DDOG got beaten down pretty good even continuing good numbers.Yeah, so technically I sold it in the hundreds. I remember someone posted in here about how it jumped up a ton and I went to the stock and was like WTF, why did I sell and then I looked at the 1 year chart and saw the old prices. Found a reverse split article and felt better about selling way back when.
Our moon biotech picks in here have been less than stellar in the end. I guess that makes sense as I’d think most moonshots do fail. Still wonder what that Whyatt guy did with HGEN. He said he bought a ton (seemed true based on his cost basis lowering numbers) and then disappeared when it tanked. That and CYDY are the only ones that seemed to attract a good chunk of interest in here.
TMDX has done very well. But they already had an FDA approved product when it first came up here.
$TMDX
@McBokonon
I just looked at the rest of that post. HGEN at 0.008. Pretty sure the reverse split adjusted first buying price was around $24. CYDY is down 50% from the initial buy price Chet gave us. So glad I never bought the former and got rid of the latter soon after it hit $9. I’ve had plenty other losers to make up for it.
I just looked at the rest of that post. HGEN at 0.008. Pretty sure the reverse split adjusted first buying price was around $24. CYDY is down 50% from the initial buy price Chet gave us. So glad I never bought the former and got rid of the latter soon after it hit $9. I’ve had plenty other losers to make up for it.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
I bought more than I should a few years ago at 135.
Capella
Footballguy
Think my thousands of shares are worth literally 3 dollars now lol
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
$1,440 in HGEN in my portfolio now worth $.06. That went well.
Sand
Footballguy
If it makes you feel any better I'm a pretty big bagholder with IEF and GVI. Not as bad as TLT percentage wise but the red numbers are big.I bought more than I should a few years ago at 135.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Oof. Yeah, I got bit with a bit of IEF as well. Not nearly as much as TLT though.If it makes you feel any better I'm a pretty big bagholder with IEF and GVI. Not as bad as TLT percentage wise but the red numbers are big.I bought more than I should a few years ago at 135.
Capella
Footballguy
Win some lose some I guess. Market cap of the company is 95k now lol.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
UWMC
ChiefD
Footballguy
No kidding.UWMC
ChiefD
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
My DIS clawed back to green.
Crypto is on a very nice run. I've kept some ETHE, even after dumping my meme stocks.
The other end of my portfolio (deep red) is TGT, F, and clean energy stocks. Still holding, though.
Crypto is on a very nice run. I've kept some ETHE, even after dumping my meme stocks.
The other end of my portfolio (deep red) is TGT, F, and clean energy stocks. Still holding, though.
