Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same. Another 1st or comparable player.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same and same.
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
What are Achane, Spears, and Warren’s value for 2024?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Traded Kelce to a contender for Andrews and a mid to low 2nd.
Achane probably a top 3 pick. Warren probably a late 1 Spears probably a high 2 or late 1.
Last week I traded Kelce and Kyler to the Burrow playoff team owner for Mark Andrews + 1st + 2nd. He would not part with Burrow so we settled on the late picks instead.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Warren is worth a late 2nd, according to the jagoff who sent me that offer before the trade deadline.
I think I broke my keyboard rejecting it with no counter.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like that deal for you.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No one says you must counter good offers either. Not if you weren’t shopping player X anyway.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Wow,great deal for you
IMO, more to their owners than what most people are willing to pay. All 3 are hot players people want to acquire but are not without their fair share of sizeable risk that buyers want to discount.
12 team IDP Dynasty with contracts. 40 man roster plus a 12 man taxi
I was the one competing with Schultz and Fant as my TEs.
To get Kelce with 2 years left (so I get him the rest of this year plus next season before he hits RFA), I gave up a 2024 1st (will likely be in the 8-10 range could be 11 or 12, a 2025 3rd, Cedric Tillman (taxi) and $4 in FA dollars (we get 50 per year but it can accumulate and is used for waivers and RFA)
I think I overpaid a bit in a vacuum, but I believe he filled by far my biggest gap and likely shifted me to being the top contender (at least top 2) if my guys can stay healthy, so I was willing to pay a little more than I thought he was actually worth to put myself into championship contender territory.
Yeah, they got hit with the double whammy of losing both the same weekend. If it results in a long playoff run I think they'll be happy too. They have Pitts for the long-run to replace Kelce but didn't want to rely on him right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I had no interest in moving Warren, but cmon - at least give me something that's hard to reject.
Interesting.
I got Warren valued the least by a decent bit. He does look outstanding, not impossible to have an Ekeler type late surge but I just don't think they are kicking Najee to the curb and he'll be hindering Warren until at least the 2025 season, when Warren turns 27. So for me that's more in the 2 range.
Achane as you indicated is worth the most and perhaps worth what you are suggesting. He's actually one of the more difficult players for me to value due to smaller sample size, massive highs, but some injuries cropping up and I'm thinking they'll never want to over use him. He's one of those players if I owned him you'd need to come correct to pry him from him, giving the kind of value you suggest, but on the other hand if I don't own him with how strong some of the top end talent in this draft I'm not trying to pay that unless I got a real RB need. I may be wrong and he just may be worth it.
Spears is someone I think should be valued as a late 1 but I don't actually like to pay the market rate(unless it's for immediate help which he is not) for a RB until after the dust settles on RB movement in FA and the draft. So he's someone people would need to pay a one to get from me, but he's not someone I'd be paying a 1 to get right now myself.
I would guess these guys are going to be hard to trade as sellers want 1s and buyers want high 2s.
We might learn a lot more about Achane in the coming weeks and he might become worth as much as MHJR or slip back to mid 1.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Assuming Kelce plays well next year, probably worth it
Lehigh98
Footballguy
On a rebuilder I also flipped Murray for Burrow and even got him to throw in a late pick.
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
Achane a top 3 pick in 2024 over Tyreek, JJ, and CMC?
joey
Footballguy
Traded Derrick Henry + McBride + 2024 3rd for Kelce.
(FFPC TE-P 1QB)
Gawain
Footballguy
Top 3 rookie pick. I'd take Harrison over him every day, but there may not be a RB in 24 better regarded than Achane.
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
What about in the ‘24 regular draft .. End of the 2nd round for Achane assuming he’s the starter?
Big Nate
Footballguy
As a Fins fan I'm big on Achane but he might end up being a forever committee back. It is probably the best for him to keep him fresh throughout the year. He's a type of guy that can excel in a committee with around 12-13 touches a game. I'm not sure he can be a 20+ consistent touch guy without breaking down - but who knows what MIA wants to do long term.
Having said that he runs well between the tackles for his size and has good vision. I think his value probably ends up a bit too high in 2024 redraft for me but if you want him I think you will have to pay up.
Okay. Kyren Williams. Where are we at with this guy? Turned in another strong performance against a tough Browns defense.
The owner in my main dynasty is in a full rebuild and is trying to empty as many points as possible off his roster to try and work his way to the 1.02 and has offered me Kyren. I’m a strong contender. Are we confident he’s the guy going forward into next year? Mcvay seems to love him. I must admit I was skeptical but he just keeps performing.
Would you give up a mid 1st at this point?
The owner in my main dynasty is in a full rebuild and is trying to empty as many points as possible off his roster to try and work his way to the 1.02 and has offered me Kyren. I’m a strong contender. Are we confident he’s the guy going forward into next year? Mcvay seems to love him. I must admit I was skeptical but he just keeps performing.
Would you give up a mid 1st at this point?
TartanLion
Footballguy
I took a chance with him earlier in the season with an SF dynasty team that is loaded at QB, and strong and deep at WR. Paid a ‘25 1st and got a mid ‘24 3rd back the way. I’m feeling happy tbh, despite the injury being an absolute kick in stones a few weeks after acquiring him, he seems like an Ekeler-lite to me. He’s trusted, he’s young, and can run and catch in equal measure. He’s just slippery out there and rarely seems to make mistakes.
I think he retains his starting spot into next season. Why spend high draft capital on an RB when you’ve got someone that’s working for you ? Maybe a solid experienced FA signing to back him up, keep seeing what you have with Evans and maybe take another rookie later in draft keep cupboards replenished. There are other areas that need attended to more.
Mid 1st I think is a fair price. Nothing is guaranteed, but I think dynasty is all about making an ongoing series of logical calculated risks. Some won’t work out but if they are all logical then enough will keep hitting for you to keep improving. To me, Mid 1st for a contender is a logical risk if a starting RB spot is the natural place to try and improve/shore up
Rookiefever
Footballguy
He’s definitely worth a mid first imo. But… you always have to hedge your bets with mcvay rbs. I would roster at least two of the rbs in dynasty.
Eta so imo, kyren would cost a couple roster spots as well as what it would take to acquire
TartanLion
Footballguy
How is Tyreek Hill valued right now ? I’m in my dynasty SF playoffs and feel like I need to strike while the iron is hot with Allen and Hurts ranked 1 and 2 on the season.
Tyreek owner is not making it and has put him on the trade block. I’m thinking of offering Addison as he’s said he wants picks or to get younger. Does that seem fair ? There’s an 8 year age disparity
Would make my WRs - Hill/Deebo/Pittman/Olave/Gabe/Reed/Jamo and a few others.
Tyreek owner is not making it and has put him on the trade block. I’m thinking of offering Addison as he’s said he wants picks or to get younger. Does that seem fair ? There’s an 8 year age disparity
Would make my WRs - Hill/Deebo/Pittman/Olave/Gabe/Reed/Jamo and a few others.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I suspect he'll want more than Addison. I'd be expecting a decent pick in addition. Mid 1st roughly.
Probably increases your chances of winning the whole thing by a decent click I'd say. Worth it.
Probably increases your chances of winning the whole thing by a decent click I'd say. Worth it.
Birdie048
Footballguy
In the Kyren thread, there is a good discussion from Gally on the likelihood of Kyren remaining RB1 in LA next year.
The concerns are size and McVay. But for his usage and opportunity, his value is clearly there. The injury was rough and it showed how valuable Kyren is to the Offense.
Zach Evans has not even been any concern yet, maybe "Rookie Red Shirt Season" with 8 carries for 16 yards but spread out and no clear threat.
Royce might see some touches to keep Kyren healthy (Royce is much larger 6' 240 lb while Kyren is 5'9" 195 lb). Ronnie Rivers is same as Kyren and no threat.
Again, I moved Kyren for a 2024 1st (1.08-1.10 range) and I see 2024 as a rebuild for LAR since they are getting out of the Cap/Draft capital nightmare they were in so who knows what they will do ... Stafford, Nuka & Kupp are not the whole offense...
joey
Footballguy
agreed. Addison PLUS a 1st is a fair offer for both sides imo.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'm not necessarily saying it's too much to give, but if you have Tyreek and can't compete this year, then Addison and a 1st would be a tremendous get
I'm in a 16 team IDP dynasty where players have contracts before heading into RFA - I was a middle of the pack team, the worst place to be in fantasy, and had Tyreek with 2 years left - so the remainder of this season and next season. When it was apparent I couldn't add enough immediate help to push me into the playoffs/title contention, I pivoted to rebuild.
I dealt Tyreek to a contender (now has the best record) with a 5th round pick for 2 1st round picks. 1 of those picks will be late, the other will likely fall in the 7-10 range depending on the outcome of this week's games.
joey
Footballguy
I guess I’m saying that, even if I can’t compete this year and roster Tyreek, I’m not selling him for less since I think I’ll be able to get that kind of return this off-season or even next year. Dudes an absolute stud and you don’t give him up for a young WR2 behind Jefferson, no matter how much you might like Addison. 2 cents
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Father time.
He's 30 next year. As great as lots of these guys look at 29, at 31 they aren't the same guy 95% of the time
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Value of Kmet?
I have Kelce and Hockenson. I am worried about Kelce retiring but can part with Kmet and pick up a flyer TE to back up Hock next year.
Is a mid 2nd a good enough offer to accept?
I have Kelce and Hockenson. I am worried about Kelce retiring but can part with Kmet and pick up a flyer TE to back up Hock next year.
Is a mid 2nd a good enough offer to accept?
The Gator
Footballguy
I found this relevant and interesting
The Peak Age for an NFL Wide Receiver
Mike Braude studies the peak age for an NFL wide receiver. The study examines what age wide receivers are most likely to improve or decline.
apexfantasyleagues.com
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Plus isn't tyreek retiring in 2 years?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I believe he said he wants to play out this contract which would be 3 more seasons. There is an out built in there after 2 but I doubt when he said he’s thinking about being released early. Also since he said that he's had the best 2 seasons of his career so who knows how he will feel in 2-3 years.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Of course.
However, I'd a tyreek team isn't contending this year, not super likely they will next year unless they have a lot of picks and rebuilt, in which case they likely don't have tyreek anyway.
So, a non contending tyreek team should be selling, and there will be buyers
TartanLion
Footballguy
You guys have covered most of it, I would be trying to prey on the fact that he did at some point say he will retire at the end of the ‘25 season ( so.. 2 seasons after this one and not 3 as someone else said ). He has since insinuated otherwise. There’s an 8 year disparity in age between Hill and Addison. Not saying it’s an even trade but for a Hill owner who is stuck in the middle and wanting to get younger, it may be a good opening salvo for me to offer
Rookiefever
Footballguy
Even on a bad team Tyreek has value. He only can win you the toilet bowl. If that’s how your leagues structured.
Big Nate
Footballguy
All depends on the league and settings. Is this TEP and if so how much. How are TEs valued? Personally I would want more and I would think there is no rush to move him. I understand you might be wanting to get a couple extra picks but a mid second is a crap shoot at best. yes there were some good 2nd round fantasy picks in 2023 but not all hit. Right now you have a starting TE in Kmet who is still very young at 24 years old and ranked around TE10 in dynasty. I actually think his value right now is a bit low.
At best you would be hoping that 2nd round pick turns into someone like Kmet. I'd need more than just a 2nd. Probably 2 seconds, or a second and a young prospect I feel good about and is getting starting playtime.
If you take a mid-second pick what do you realistically expect to draft there?
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Thanks.. it is not a TE Premium league .. standard scoring. I am trying for 2 2nds. Worst case a 2nd and Demario Douglas.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Not bad getting Demario as well if it isn't TEP. Again every league is different, even if it isn't TEP but I always think about this when trading a player for a single second or a first:
1) Is the best case scenario for that pick to get a similar player back? Realistically, is the player better than most players drafted at that pick?
2) Sometimes it makes sense to get a player off your roster if you are trying to make room and will grab someone you like off waivers. But this is usually for 3rd or 4th round type values.
3) For most TEs I usually like to toss them in as fillers to finish of a big trade. Maybe Kmet can push a big trade over the edge if you need a boost.
4) I also look at when is the best time to trade a player. If it is an older player, during the season makes the most sense. I might sell for a small discount if I know that value will drop in the offseason. For a young player like Kmet, it is unlikely his value will drop much over time. TE 10 or TE14 isn't a big difference if it drops a bit. But since he's young and has shown promise his value could go up next season. In this case I'm not in a big rush to move him, even if I have 2 other good TEs. Waiting until someone else is hurting at TE and Kmet is having a good year can get you max value. At some point next year he will have a big game or two which could net you max value.
Anyways just some things to ponder.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Good advice.
Was able to get 2 2nds for Kmet (2.05 and 2.13). Come draft time, people love the picks so can add those easier to get a better player than Kmet.
Blick
Footballguy
Just moved Kmet and my 1st (hopefully 1.12) for McBride. I overpayed, but felt I needed an upgrade.
This is a deceiving statement. In general, the player is typically better than most players at that pick with regards to your starting lineup. Rookies generally don't have immediate value to your starting lineup. Of course, you can always hit on a rookie pick. it's in the possible outcomes but it generally isn't likely in the near term. The actual player picked with a draft typically isn't the value of the pick.
Pick value always goes up as you get closer to the draft while the player you trade away doesn't have that built in value rise. These fringe players are always better to turn into picks as you are moving towards the end of a season and getting into draft season. This is where you gain value in trading a player for a pick.
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...in the trade we are discussing I know I could do far more damage in a future deal with those #2's then I could with Kmet...sometimes it is not about the deal you are making now but what that deal will allow you to do in the future...draft picks don't tend to lose value.
