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I believe the economy may be really bad right now. (2 Viewers)

I’m seeing fairly strong demand across the board. Downtown Lawrence was packed Thursday and Friday, Ames was overcrowded on Saturday with shoppers. Gas stations and traffic on I-35 was crowded driving back from Iowa yesterday. Concert tickets and sporting events are selling out - KC Current sold all of their season tickets for the 2024 season!

We need more supply of housing, restaurant and day care labor, and we should be OK. Car inventory is in good shape and prices are stabilizing and incentives are increasing. Fuel pricing has improved as supply continues to get better.

I haven’t seen predictions on raises for next year -looking for 3%+.
 
I’m seeing fairly strong demand across the board. Downtown Lawrence was packed Thursday and Friday, Ames was overcrowded on Saturday with shoppers. Gas stations and traffic on I-35 was crowded driving back from Iowa yesterday. Concert tickets and sporting events are selling out - KC Current sold all of their season tickets for the 2024 season!

We need more supply of housing, restaurant and day care labor, and we should be OK. Car inventory is in good shape and prices are stabilizing and incentives are increasing. Fuel pricing has improved as supply continues to get better.

I haven’t seen predictions on raises for next year -looking for 3%+.

Thanksgiving weekend sales were record-setting as well.

You are so correct regarding housing issues.
 
In my day' we still wanted to get out on our own as fast as possible. Just doesn't seem to be a priority for many young people anymore. Maybe the return of the multi-generational household is coming back? That might not be all bad.
Very much true.
There is an advantage, financially anyway, to making these one time expensive purchases instead of locking yourself in to many years of payments and monthly bills. If my 20yo son lost his job, he wouldn’t go to the next concert but he has a roof over his head covered. At his age I was basically on my own and my wife was engaged (I’m two years older). Meanwhile he’s just sort of starting to date for the first time. He’s not alone in that, many of his generation are “behind” or waiting for many of the experiences we were excited to do.

Of course, apartments aren’t cheap and many can’t afford to buy right now, so they stay at home and still spend money. (Our adult kids at home max their Roth IRA as a form of rent)
 
Trying to gauge the economies strength during holiday shopping season is not really indicative of much of anything. People are going to spend this time of year whether they have the money or not.

In regard to the housing market, right now it's ridiculous as the average home is something like $390,000. I don't care who you are, most 20-30 somethings are not earning enough to buy a house at this cost. I think I heard that the average starter house in the 90's was something like 1,400 square feet and today is 2,400 square feet which is a pretty big factor because new home builders want to build larger homes (larger profits, duh).
And most people that own homes today are going to be very reluctant to put theirs on the market as something like 95% of mortgage holders have interest rates below the current 7ish% 30 year.
Fewer homes on the market, larger homes being built, yeah that's going to price a lot of people out of the market without a doubt.

In regard to the economy as a whole, I'm certainly not smart enough to see where it is now, where it is heading, but one thing that is crystal clear to me is that the split of the "haves" and "have nots" is getting larger and larger by the year.
62% of households live paycheck to paycheck
45million households are on food stamps (or their equivalent)

I see the split waging everywhere. At my workplace, with my children, with my social network. There are plenty of people that are living very well, and reaping the raging stock market returns of the past year or two. But I know of plenty of people making decent money that cannot afford a $1,000 car repair, let alone trying to buy a home if they are currently renting and trying to figure out how to come up with a $2,000 -$3,000/month mortgage payment.

I don't necessarily see the U.S. economy in a bad spot, and I don't think a deep or prolonged recession is imminent, but I think this split I've mentioned above is going to have far reaching affects in the U.S. and that takes me aback a bit.
 
can also go to a cheaper restaurant
Is this possible? Less than 20 bucks a head?

This has nothing to do with the national economy, at any rate
I will say this is one thing great about Portland. There are A LOT of casual places with great food or food carts. Order from the bar so there is no table service and i feel fine only tipping 10 or 15% and then there is no sales tax. We eat out a lot for $10 to $15 a person...obviously a bit more if there is booze. But this makes PDX very affordable IMO.
 
I don't think you guys will resolve anything between yourselves relying on selected criteria and/or personal anecdotes. Here's the reality. We are in a faith-based economy now. It's not based on any particular standard anymore rather how people "feel" about circumstances. This is likely why we have a major disconnect between the traditional economic indicators and individual consumer sentiment. People don't look at the data anymore nor do they go beyond their personal situation when evaluating the entirety of "the economy".
 
My wife and I
We (5 of us) went out to eat last night at an Indian restaurant. After taxes and tip it was a $100 bill and that included a kids meal. We probably won't go out to eat again for several months. It is just impractical.
You think that’s high?
Depending on the Drinks, that’s pretty reasonable.
we all had water
For families, there are more and more that $100 is a luxury. I don’t know how people continually go to Pro sporting events.



Saturday we did not have plans so I went online to see how much Lion tickets were. Cheapest I found was 200.00 a ticket for "Standing Room Only" Most seats were going from 300-750 a ticket. That was not counting fees, parking, and whatever you spend at game.
I feel the shifting of priorities amongst people is often overlooked regarding spending habits.

Millennials and GenZ will complain to anyone who will listen that buying a home is simply out of reach for them. But, compare them to someone in the 70's - perhaps most of the 90's and you'll find a person who spends like crazy on daily comforts compared to their elders.

Nobody used to spend $200 month at Starbucks, another $500 month on DoorDash, drop $250 on a concert once a month. The reason many are able to do this is they are willing to live with Mom & Dad into their 30's. 'In my day' we still wanted to get out on our own as fast as possible. Just doesn't seem to be a priority for many young people anymore. Maybe the return of the multi-generational household is coming back? That might not be all bad.
buying a average house in Orange County requires $175,000 income and $250k down payment. I don’t know many in their 20’s who can do that.
 
I don't think you guys will resolve anything between yourselves relying on selected criteria and/or personal anecdotes. Here's the reality. We are in a faith-based economy now. It's not based on any particular standard anymore rather how people "feel" about circumstances. This is likely why we have a major disconnect between the traditional economic indicators and individual consumer sentiment. People don't look at the data anymore nor do they go beyond their personal situation when evaluating the entirety of "the economy".
actually in surveys people generally feel pretty good about their personal situation but when asked about the economy as a whole their opinions are quite a bit less optimistic.
 
It's pretty hard to believe that an institution that can't even communicate a simple PR message can pull off a soft landing for a $25 trillion economy.
There is no soft landing on the horizon no matter how they try to spin it. It's going to be hard & painful and it probably needs to be to change the behavior that has given rise to the situation we are in now.
ETA - Were fine, we have plenty of savings, all bills get paid and we’re not behind- but there just isn’t as much disposable income right now.

I can’t imagine how rough it must be for others. If this was happening 10 years ago things would be a lot different.
This is me & the wife. Last kid graduated college a year ago, we're fine but the disposable income we are accustomed to isn't there any more. I went to 5 Guys Saturday because I hadn't been in a while, bacon cheeseburg, regular order of fires, 20% tip...$23. A sandwich and fries in South Carolina. Probably won't be doing that again anytime soon.
 
I don't think you guys will resolve anything between yourselves relying on selected criteria and/or personal anecdotes. Here's the reality. We are in a faith-based economy now. It's not based on any particular standard anymore rather how people "feel" about circumstances. This is likely why we have a major disconnect between the traditional economic indicators and individual consumer sentiment. People don't look at the data anymore nor do they go beyond their personal situation when evaluating the entirety of "the economy".
actually in surveys people generally feel pretty good about their personal situation but when asked about the economy as a whole their opinions are quite a bit less optimistic.
The knife cuts both ways. I can see this being true. Doesn't change what I said though. I'd love for them to be able to accurately capture the "why" they feel the way they do about the economy as a whole.
 
I don't think you guys will resolve anything between yourselves relying on selected criteria and/or personal anecdotes. Here's the reality. We are in a faith-based economy now. It's not based on any particular standard anymore rather how people "feel" about circumstances. This is likely why we have a major disconnect between the traditional economic indicators and individual consumer sentiment. People don't look at the data anymore nor do they go beyond their personal situation when evaluating the entirety of "the economy".
actually in surveys people generally feel pretty good about their personal situation but when asked about the economy as a whole their opinions are quite a bit less optimistic.
The knife cuts both ways. I can see this being true. Doesn't change what I said though. I'd love for them to be able to accurately capture the "why" they feel the way they do about the economy as a whole.
well if i had to guess i would say likely the media
 
I don't think you guys will resolve anything between yourselves relying on selected criteria and/or personal anecdotes. Here's the reality. We are in a faith-based economy now. It's not based on any particular standard anymore rather how people "feel" about circumstances. This is likely why we have a major disconnect between the traditional economic indicators and individual consumer sentiment. People don't look at the data anymore nor do they go beyond their personal situation when evaluating the entirety of "the economy".
actually in surveys people generally feel pretty good about their personal situation but when asked about the economy as a whole their opinions are quite a bit less optimistic.
The knife cuts both ways. I can see this being true. Doesn't change what I said though. I'd love for them to be able to accurately capture the "why" they feel the way they do about the economy as a whole.
well if i had to guess i would say likely the media
I don't have a ton of insight into the message out there from the US media machine, but I do know a lot of Americans and you're probably right. Somewhere along the line a great many lost their ability to think for themselves and say "hey, maybe what they are telling me isn't exactly true because what they're saying isn't what I'm seeing". If I'm being honest, I kind of hope this is one of those things that dies off with age, but I'm not so sure.
 
My wife and I
We (5 of us) went out to eat last night at an Indian restaurant. After taxes and tip it was a $100 bill and that included a kids meal. We probably won't go out to eat again for several months. It is just impractical.
You think that’s high?
Depending on the Drinks, that’s pretty reasonable.
we all had water
For families, there are more and more that $100 is a luxury. I don’t know how people continually go to Pro sporting events.



Saturday we did not have plans so I went online to see how much Lion tickets were. Cheapest I found was 200.00 a ticket for "Standing Room Only" Most seats were going from 300-750 a ticket. That was not counting fees, parking, and whatever you spend at game.
I feel the shifting of priorities amongst people is often overlooked regarding spending habits.

Millennials and GenZ will complain to anyone who will listen that buying a home is simply out of reach for them. But, compare them to someone in the 70's - perhaps most of the 90's and you'll find a person who spends like crazy on daily comforts compared to their elders.

Nobody used to spend $200 month at Starbucks, another $500 month on DoorDash, drop $250 on a concert once a month. The reason many are able to do this is they are willing to live with Mom & Dad into their 30's. 'In my day' we still wanted to get out on our own as fast as possible. Just doesn't seem to be a priority for many young people anymore. Maybe the return of the multi-generational household is coming back? That might not be all bad.
buying a average house in Orange County requires $175,000 income and $250k down payment. I don’t know many in their 20’s who can do that.
Not many in their 20's can. But Orange county is likely an outlier relative to the entire country. Also: one's first home shouldn't be an average home, it should be a starter home. At least, that's how most people thought about homeownership back in the day.
 
My wife and I
We (5 of us) went out to eat last night at an Indian restaurant. After taxes and tip it was a $100 bill and that included a kids meal. We probably won't go out to eat again for several months. It is just impractical.
You think that’s high?
Depending on the Drinks, that’s pretty reasonable.
we all had water
For families, there are more and more that $100 is a luxury. I don’t know how people continually go to Pro sporting events.



Saturday we did not have plans so I went online to see how much Lion tickets were. Cheapest I found was 200.00 a ticket for "Standing Room Only" Most seats were going from 300-750 a ticket. That was not counting fees, parking, and whatever you spend at game.
I feel the shifting of priorities amongst people is often overlooked regarding spending habits.

Millennials and GenZ will complain to anyone who will listen that buying a home is simply out of reach for them. But, compare them to someone in the 70's - perhaps most of the 90's and you'll find a person who spends like crazy on daily comforts compared to their elders.

Nobody used to spend $200 month at Starbucks, another $500 month on DoorDash, drop $250 on a concert once a month. The reason many are able to do this is they are willing to live with Mom & Dad into their 30's. 'In my day' we still wanted to get out on our own as fast as possible. Just doesn't seem to be a priority for many young people anymore. Maybe the return of the multi-generational household is coming back? That might not be all bad.
buying a average house in Orange County requires $175,000 income and $250k down payment. I don’t know many in their 20’s who can do that.
Not many in their 20's can. But Orange county is likely an outlier relative to the entire country. Also: one's first home shouldn't be an average home, it should be a starter home. At least, that's how most people thought about homeownership back in the day.
I agree. It’s hard to even get a starter home with student loans and other bills anywhere. Rent nationwide has risen, hard to save anything now.
 
Economy is local, like politics, right?

If you are hurting financially, someone telling you the economy is grrrrreat, you might have an objection.
 
I was in an indoor mall this past weekend in Lincoln, NE. I haven't been to it in years, and I was shocked at how many people and the number of stores that were there. It was like reliving the 80's and 90's for me. I even ate in the food court.
 
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I was in an indoor mall this past weekend in Lincoln, NE. I haven't been to it in years, and I was shocked at how many people and the amount stores that were there. It was like reliving the 80's and 90's for me. I even ate in the food court.
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.
 
I was in an indoor mall this past weekend in Lincoln, NE. I haven't been to it in years, and I was shocked at how many people and the amount stores that were there. It was like reliving the 80's and 90's for me. I even ate in the food court.
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.
You guys have malls?
 
I don't think you guys will resolve anything between yourselves relying on selected criteria and/or personal anecdotes. Here's the reality. We are in a faith-based economy now. It's not based on any particular standard anymore rather how people "feel" about circumstances. This is likely why we have a major disconnect between the traditional economic indicators and individual consumer sentiment. People don't look at the data anymore nor do they go beyond their personal situation when evaluating the entirety of "the economy".
actually in surveys people generally feel pretty good about their personal situation but when asked about the economy as a whole their opinions are quite a bit less optimistic.
That's why i hate these stories about polls regarding "the direction of the country" people can personally like the direction we are in, but dislike how many people around them don't "feel" like its going in the right direction and vote "Not going in a good direction".
 
Americans are proportionally spending a lot more than saving relative to historical savings rates*.

Spending will show up in the macroeconomic data. Lack of personal savings will not.

So an inability to save (e.g. for a house downpayment)...due to decreasing discretionary income...due to inflation and proportionally lower wage growth...may partially explain why people are frustrated with the economy...even while macro data primarily measuring spending remains strong.

*The current U.S. personal savings rate is 3.8%, which is about its average since January 2022. Between 2010 and 2020 Americans saved roughly 5-8% of their money. Historically the average is around 9%. Source: Fed database U.S. personal savings rate
 
5 Guys Saturday because I hadn't been in a while, bacon cheeseburg, regular order of fires, 20% tip
When did we start tipping at 5 guys?
:shrug: I always tip when it comes up. I figure if it's an option and you don't the preparer is gonna know you consciously decided not to tip. I'd rather not run the chance said worker is having a bad day and decides today is the day to spit on the customers food. I know they can still do that but no reason to give them an added reason.

Plus both my kids worked in the food service industries and they don't make **** without tips.
 
I was in an indoor mall this past weekend in Lincoln, NE. I haven't been to it in years, and I was shocked at how many people and the amount stores that were there. It was like reliving the 80's and 90's for me. I even ate in the food court.
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.
You guys have malls?
We have the same mall that has somehow survived since I was a kid (I am 51 now). It went through a rough patch, but it was packed last weekend. Will there be a mall revival?
 
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.

You guys have malls?
Malls around here dropping like flies. Most are empty, big box stores have left long ago and are filled with those stupid pop up stores that are there for a season and gone. They're all going to be parking lots soon, Amazon kilt the mall.
 
Since when is $14 per hour for a teenager working at 5 guys considered ****?
I think the same way. But then I also realize that same $14 bucks often won't cover their trip to Burger King for themselves. When I was a teenager, an hour of work at basically minimum wage covered my after school trip to McDonald's. if I'd put in my 6 hours of grunt work in fast food and then went out with friends for a bite and paid more than an hour's wage for my #3 value meal, I'd have been upset.
 
Since when is $14 per hour for a teenager working at 5 guys considered ****?
I think the same way. But then I also realize that same $14 bucks often won't cover their trip to Burger King for themselves. When I was a teenager, an hour of work at basically minimum wage covered my after school trip to McDonald's. if I'd put in my 6 hours of grunt work in fast food and then went out with friends for a bite and paid more than an hour's wage for my #3 value meal, I'd have been upset.
Not sure. Minimum wage in NJ when I was in high school in 1995 was about 4 bucks. Now its 14 bucks.
 
5 Guys Saturday because I hadn't been in a while, bacon cheeseburg, regular order of fires, 20% tip
When did we start tipping at 5 guys?
:shrug: I always tip when it comes up. I figure if it's an option and you don't the preparer is gonna know you consciously decided not to tip. I'd rather not run the chance said worker is having a bad day and decides today is the day to spit on the customers food. I know they can still do that but no reason to give them an added reason.

Plus both my kids worked in the food service industries and they don't make **** without tips.

You're a good man, Charlie Brown.
 
Since when is $14 per hour for a teenager working at 5 guys considered ****?
I think the same way. But then I also realize that same $14 bucks often won't cover their trip to Burger King for themselves. When I was a teenager, an hour of work at basically minimum wage covered my after school trip to McDonald's. if I'd put in my 6 hours of grunt work in fast food and then went out with friends for a bite and paid more than an hour's wage for my #3 value meal, I'd have been upset.
Not sure. Minimum wage in NJ when I was in high school in 1995 was about 4 bucks. Now its 14 bucks.
Yes. But you could also get a meal at Burger King for that. Now it's $14. I guess my point is we didn't feel $4 then was a crazy amount, and by the same reasoning $14 shouldn't feel shocking now (thought I agree with you I still feel like it is).

My daughter works at Culvers and makes $17. It staggers the mind.
 
Since when is $14 per hour for a teenager working at 5 guys considered ****?
I think the same way. But then I also realize that same $14 bucks often won't cover their trip to Burger King for themselves. When I was a teenager, an hour of work at basically minimum wage covered my after school trip to McDonald's. if I'd put in my 6 hours of grunt work in fast food and then went out with friends for a bite and paid more than an hour's wage for my #3 value meal, I'd have been upset.
I’m not sure I’m getting what you’re saying here. At 14 bucks an hour, one hour wage would absolutely cover one meal at Burger King, which would probably cost you under 14 bucks.
 
My wife and I
We (5 of us) went out to eat last night at an Indian restaurant. After taxes and tip it was a $100 bill and that included a kids meal. We probably won't go out to eat again for several months. It is just impractical.
You think that’s high?
Depending on the Drinks, that’s pretty reasonable.
we all had water
For families, there are more and more that $100 is a luxury. I don’t know how people continually go to Pro sporting events.



Saturday we did not have plans so I went online to see how much Lion tickets were. Cheapest I found was 200.00 a ticket for "Standing Room Only" Most seats were going from 300-750 a ticket. That was not counting fees, parking, and whatever you spend at game.
I feel the shifting of priorities amongst people is often overlooked regarding spending habits.

Millennials and GenZ will complain to anyone who will listen that buying a home is simply out of reach for them. But, compare them to someone in the 70's - perhaps most of the 90's and you'll find a person who spends like crazy on daily comforts compared to their elders.

Nobody used to spend $200 month at Starbucks, another $500 month on DoorDash, drop $250 on a concert once a month. The reason many are able to do this is they are willing to live with Mom & Dad into their 30's. 'In my day' we still wanted to get out on our own as fast as possible. Just doesn't seem to be a priority for many young people anymore. Maybe the return of the multi-generational household is coming back? That might not be all bad.
buying a average house in Orange County requires $175,000 income and $250k down payment. I don’t know many in their 20’s who can do that.
I would not be able to buy my house now. I was lucky to get in 20 some years ago
 
Since when is $14 per hour for a teenager working at 5 guys considered ****?
I think the same way. But then I also realize that same $14 bucks often won't cover their trip to Burger King for themselves. When I was a teenager, an hour of work at basically minimum wage covered my after school trip to McDonald's. if I'd put in my 6 hours of grunt work in fast food and then went out with friends for a bite and paid more than an hour's wage for my #3 value meal, I'd have been upset.
I’m not sure I’m getting what you’re saying here. At 14 bucks an hour, one hour wage would absolutely cover one meal at Burger King, which would probably cost you under 14 bucks.
Well, my son hits Burger King couple times a week, and it's always right around $14 (I see it on his bank statement).

Maybe that's like a double whopper with a shake upgrade, but man that's what it costs.
 
Since when is $14 per hour for a teenager working at 5 guys considered ****?
I think the same way. But then I also realize that same $14 bucks often won't cover their trip to Burger King for themselves. When I was a teenager, an hour of work at basically minimum wage covered my after school trip to McDonald's. if I'd put in my 6 hours of grunt work in fast food and then went out with friends for a bite and paid more than an hour's wage for my #3 value meal, I'd have been upset.
Not sure. Minimum wage in NJ when I was in high school in 1995 was about 4 bucks. Now its 14 bucks.
Yes. But you could also get a meal at Burger King for that. Now it's $14. I guess my point is we didn't feel $4 then was a crazy amount, and by the same reasoning $14 shouldn't feel shocking now (thought I agree with you I still feel like it is).

My daughter works at Culvers and makes $17. It staggers the mind.
I know right. These teenagers just standing there helping us geezers with the self checkout getting paid $16 bucks per hour.
 
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.

You guys have malls?
Malls around here dropping like flies. Most are empty, big box stores have left long ago and are filled with those stupid pop up stores that are there for a season and gone. They're all going to be parking lots soon, Amazon kilt the mall.
Our closest mall closed a few years ago. In its place there’s now a top golf, an REI, a Dave and Busters, a few local restaurants, an 8,000 seat amphitheater, and other stuff.
 
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.

You guys have malls?
Malls around here dropping like flies. Most are empty, big box stores have left long ago and are filled with those stupid pop up stores that are there for a season and gone. They're all going to be parking lots soon, Amazon kilt the mall.
Our closest mall closed a few years ago. In its place there’s now a top golf, an REI, a Dave and Busters, a few local restaurants, an 8,000 seat amphitheater, and other stuff.
Sounds like a significant upgrade to me.
 
Wow... All of the malls around me are at best 3/4 occupancy and half the people "shopping" are kids just being social.

You guys have malls?
Malls around here dropping like flies. Most are empty, big box stores have left long ago and are filled with those stupid pop up stores that are there for a season and gone. They're all going to be parking lots soon, Amazon kilt the mall.
Our closest mall closed a few years ago. In its place there’s now a top golf, an REI, a Dave and Busters, a few local restaurants, an 8,000 seat amphitheater, and other stuff.
Sounds like a significant upgrade to me.
Definitely is. We saw smashing pumpkins there, solid venue. Apartments too. It’s surprising how much space opened up when they demolished the mall and opened up the area.
 
5 Guys Saturday because I hadn't been in a while, bacon cheeseburg, regular order of fires, 20% tip
When did we start tipping at 5 guys?
:shrug: I always tip when it comes up. I figure if it's an option and you don't the preparer is gonna know you consciously decided not to tip. I'd rather not run the chance said worker is having a bad day and decides today is the day to spit on the customers food. I know they can still do that but no reason to give them an added reason.

Plus both my kids worked in the food service industries and they don't make **** without tips.
Fair enough.
My oldest works at bucees without tips at similar pay and has worked at McDonald’s. Most of the time I don’t tip at fast food but appreciate those who do.
 
Economy is local, like politics, right?

If you are hurting financially, someone telling you the economy is grrrrreat, you might have an objection.
"The economy" isn't.....and I'd say what you are describing is much better labeled "personal financial situation". People need to understand the difference and they need to understand when they are part of the general category or they aren't IMO.
 
teenagers someone mentioned their teenagers worked at 5 guys and that they get paid crap.
If minimum wage isn't crap, what's crap?
Preschool teachers here make $10-15/hr. To deal with 1-5 year old kids. And ridiculous parents. That’s getting paid crap for the work they do. And they don’t get tips other than the occasional gift, like twice a year if that.
 

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