Football Jones
Footballguy
At the time SF needed a momentum jolt.
This is a common misconception. They didn’t need momentum, they needed points. If momentum was predictive of points it would be easy to prove. But it’s not.
It's almost like momentum = points.I think this is a key point for this exact situation. "you have momentum until - suddenly you don't". At the time SF needed a momentum jolt. The best way they could get this is to get a 4th down stop. By going for it DC is risking SF getting the jolt of momentum they needed to turn the game around. By attempting the FG he is keeping the momentum at status quo. A miss isn't as big of a momentum swing as a 4th down stop. It's good for SF but not as good as a 4th down stop. A blocked FG could rival that swing but that is much less likely than anything else in this scenario.Otherwise one team would get momentum to start the game and never give it up, but obviously that’s not what happens. You have momentum until - suddenly - you don’t.
This is the main reason why I think the FG attempt would have been far and away the correct choice. The downside of not getting the 4th down conversion and subsequent momentum shift was the biggest risk to Detroit it leading to SF getting back into the game. It's not a risk I would have taken.
Momentum has played a key role in victories in every sport there is. It's a thing.
Surely that's not something we need to debate here. When you add in a very makable FG to go up 3 scores (which is huge), you start to get the feel of just how much risk was involved in going for it on 4th down.