I bought another slice yesterday. Relative to the other big name mega caps, it is fairly priced. We all know the business model.
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Stock Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
DNN running like a scalded dog.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I bought some of that in my son's account based on your recommendation. Interested to see what happens.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Well, if he ever asks you why, here's a key driver this morning and one of the theses investors like us have been pointing to during the run:
Kazatomprom's (world’s largest producer and seller of natural uranium) press release overnight: "Cuts 2024 Uranium Production Outlook by 12%-14% due to challenges related to the availability of sulphuric acid and construction delays at the newly developed deposits”
Capella
Footballguy
Amazon being up pretty nice today into earnings is making me nervous.
Not sure. Either some leakage because they seem up more than most or they got banged up too much yesterday because of others. Probably doesn’t mean anything. I think they’ll have a really good report, especially earnings but at any point one backup number could ruin it all or provide some extra powder. The stock is at the same level it was back in July 2020, so it’s not like it’s priced crazy. There PE ratio will be much lower once they report this quarter and next quarter. 2022 had a lot of Rivian negatives and non-cost savings.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I've heard some picks and shovels type conversations around AI today in a couple of meida spots. Got me thinking about what other companies, outside of the obvious NVDA and AMD or the other mega-techs that have already run bigly and that I have decent exposure to in ETFs already, that might be interesting to look at.
They were discussing ACN, EPAM, and GLOB on one show today. Being in the tech space I know Accenture well, but not the other two, will do a little digging.
The Reddit crowd seems to like SMCI, but it's already doubled in the last month (10% today alone).
ADBE seems pretty well positioned. We just discussed IBM upthread. TSMI has lagged the NASDAQ, maybe it has room to catch up.
There are several ETFs that I could just go with (AIQ, WTAI, IGPT, LRNZ), but their expense ratios are all up at 45 bps or above. Going to dig through a few of them for other ideas.
Any that y'all like? I'm thinking a bucket of stocks for a medium-longer term investment, not necessarily looking for just a trade.
They were discussing ACN, EPAM, and GLOB on one show today. Being in the tech space I know Accenture well, but not the other two, will do a little digging.
The Reddit crowd seems to like SMCI, but it's already doubled in the last month (10% today alone).
ADBE seems pretty well positioned. We just discussed IBM upthread. TSMI has lagged the NASDAQ, maybe it has room to catch up.
There are several ETFs that I could just go with (AIQ, WTAI, IGPT, LRNZ), but their expense ratios are all up at 45 bps or above. Going to dig through a few of them for other ideas.
Any that y'all like? I'm thinking a bucket of stocks for a medium-longer term investment, not necessarily looking for just a trade.
Runkle
Footballguy
SOXX
McBokonon
Footballguy
Both good it looks like. Meta announced a dividend.
Capella
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
I take back most of this things i have said about you AMZN
General Malaise
Footballguy
Uranium metal jumped $5 today to close at $105/106. Utilities starting to get a little nervous as global supply is constraining, especially for UF6.
2024, I like you already!
2024, I like you already!
GoBirds
Footballguy
I added 25 as a long term holder.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Thanks Hilary!!
General Malaise
Footballguy
You're never going to guess what country has all of a sudden "found" uranium it can mine!
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Remember that time I sold the META I bought at the low to lock in a quick 25% gain (rhetorical question)? The good news is that I did it after hours so couldn't sell the partial .56 share in my account, and I never did. So that's been sitting in there staring at me ever since. Flashing that over 300% gain, just mocking me.
In fact I sort my holdings in that account by declining percentage of the account, and that little 1/2 share has now moved up past my positions of FFA favorites HGEN, PLGNF, and TRUFF, and is closing in quick on QS, SE, and BLDP.
In fact I sort my holdings in that account by declining percentage of the account, and that little 1/2 share has now moved up past my positions of FFA favorites HGEN, PLGNF, and TRUFF, and is closing in quick on QS, SE, and BLDP.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Update: up 386%.
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Texas Football
Footballguy
META up like 20b market cap in a day... They are saying that has never happened before.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
14 months ago the share price was $88, so roughly the same amount it's UP today ($84).
Up 22% on the day and the P/E ratio is still only 32.
I know Todem was banging the drum on this one repeatedly when it was around $100. I bought a good size chunk but, of course, wish I had bought a lot more. Ended up sitting on too much cash at 5% as we came out of the bottom a year ago.
You are missing a 0.
Yeah, I feel like I missed the boat as I do still have about 10% cash level. Not really high but a few stocks I watched go up when I should have bought more. At least it’s earning 5%.
Texas Football
Footballguy
Yeah, I noticed that. Friggin' nuts.
The General
Footballguy
With these dividends Mark Z is going to collect 700 mil a year.
Largely in part because they announced the dividend Mark made about 30 billion In his stock.
That crazy robot is doing ok.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I don't have any particular shares in META. Have much more AMZN than I remembered. So many chip stocks I have are on fire.
I still think there is an untold story going on about how strong the US economy is. Maybe this swings back against me though.
I still think there is an untold story going on about how strong the US economy is. Maybe this swings back against me though.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Man did yesterday ever feel "toppy". Looking for magazine covers that talk about good times and a neverending bull market to validate that. Still of the view that this year will be ok, but it sure seems like we're due for a typical 10% correction.
It was a fun day to update my net worth spreadsheet though!
It was a fun day to update my net worth spreadsheet though!
jwb
Footballguy
In looking at SPY, which is as good a market gauge as any, 13 out of the last 14 weeks have been green. Looking back I cannot find another run like that. Not that predicting anything works out, but I agree it would seem like we're due for a Feb/March correction. Regional bank rumblings regarding commercial real estate / Middle East stuff could definitely trigger it.
I was pretty gung-ho in Nov/Dec/early Jan, swapping a good portion of my Q's to 3x. But I pulled that back - happy with what I made and will play it a little cautious for awhile.
I’ll be honest that META had a good quarter and should have popped but 20%+ for a $0.50 quarterly dividend on a $480 stock is a bit too much. Sure, let’s pay an extra 12-15% premium to get a 0.4% annual dividend doesn’t seem smart.
Also, I do find it funny people seem to be aghast about $700M in dividends when as you said, his net worth went up $28B yesterday and overall his stock is worth $166B. That $700M is barely noticeable.
The General
Footballguy
Seems pretty bubbly at the moment. Just a matter of how long you want to try and touch the stove in the short term after this huge run up.
Long term Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google do seem pretty safe though.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why? The P/E ratio is still only 31 and that's with them pissing away billions on Metaverse stuff that they're not currently getting any revenue out of.
Right. I’ll buy some SPY puts on Monday. That ought to lock in a nice rise over the next month. You’re welcome.
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The General
Footballguy
Just looking at percentage these stocks have grown in such a short period. At some point we’ll get one of those profit taking big drops. Just depends on what your plan is and when you got in as to what the plan should be.
jwb
Footballguy
Well, the only other option is to just buy and hold forever and not think about it. I'm 100% incapable of doing that. But I am getting better at it. At least that's what I tell myself
General Malaise
Footballguy
Strange to me that something like gold has just hung in there around $2K/Oz when fixed income has been a viable play for around a year now.
jwb
Footballguy
Google and Apple do not feel as safe to me as the other two. Search seems a little vulnerable, and without that, what is Google exactly?
Apple because they need something new. And another heavy headset isn't it.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Cloud, which is rapidly growing, and heavyweight Youtube. Android to a lesser extent but still not nothing.
I expect Google will figure out incorporating AI into search (which is by nomeans dead or dying, anyway.) It’s starting to work already but I trust them to really nail it. They definitely face competition in the ads space, like with Amazon. It’s a growing pie, though. I bought some this week - I do think sentiment might stay lukewarm for a while but that’s ok.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Kind of a side note to this, but it's amazing what some of these companies do in addition to their core businesses.
I'm going to make a longer post about this, but I was just in San Francisco and shocked to see that Google has a fully functioning self-driving taxi system out on the roads there. They're still rolling it out slowly so there's a wait list to sign up by my sister in law got off the waitlist so we were able to just pull up an app (Waymo) like Uber, call a car, and a completely driverless vehicle pulled up and drove us around San Francisco. Like literally, the drivers seat was completely empty, in town, in San Francisco traffic, just ferrying us around like an invisible Uber driver.
How did I not know this was already a thing? How can Uber compete with that?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Is Uber/Lyft way cheaper?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I didn't compare them while I was there but I wouldn't see any reason why, especially since Uber has to pay drivers and google doesn't. I would expect Google could very easily undercut Uber on pricing. Our rides seemed pretty cheap for what they were, but I didn't directly compare what an Uber would have cost for the same ride (because I intentionally wanted to try out the self driving cars).
I was talking with an Uber driver the other day and he was saying 75% of the Uber fare goes to the driver, and 25% to Uber. Not sure if that's accurate or not. And then of course there is tip which goes 100% to the driver. So even if Google just matched Uber's pricing it would be cheaper for riders since there is no tip, and then Google would collect 4x as much on the fare as Uber.
Obviously they then have to buy the cars, maintain them, gas, etc. But it seems like they'd make that up pretty quickly. 100 fares a month at $20/fare average is $2000 earned for Google versus $500 earned for Uber (and that's with Uber's users paying more than $2000 overall since they had to tip). So that's a $1500 difference which seems like it should more than cover the car payment/gas/maintenance.
And that's with 100 fares/month (3.3 per day) which seems way on the low end. I think the Uber driver I was talking to said he shoots for about 20 fares per day. So in that case you're talking about $12,000 collected by Google versus $3,000 collected by Uber, even with Google being 20% cheaper for the rider (no tips).
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McBokonon
Footballguy
I subscribe to a newsletter called The Daily Upside (which I recommend) and they just had this in this morning’s edition:
“Last year, completely driverless vehicles traversed 3.3 million miles across the Golden State — a five-fold increase from 2022 levels, according to recently released state data. Making up the bulk of the robot-cruising were GM’s Cruise cars, responsible for 63% of the miles autonomously driven, and Google’s Waymo, which accounted for 36%.”
I had no idea GM was so involved to the point they were almost 2-1 to Google in driverless miles in CA. Looks like Cruise was a startup that GM acquired.
One of the reasons I like managing some of my own investments with individual stocks is you keep learning stuff like this. Not even so much what a specific company is doing, but what is trending and you learn about it way before it hits anything resembling mainstream news.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
GM's cars had an incident and had their license to operate in CA suspended, at least temporarily. None of them were operating while I was there.
Amazon also had self driving cars going while I was there, but theirs are still earlier in the approval stage so they still had to have a driver sitting in the driver's seat in case of emergencies.
It's kind of crazy to me this has all happened so quietly. All this talk about Tesla FSD and how beyond interstate cruising it keeps getting pushed back and may not even be close. Yet meanwhile I had no idea there are already 3 other companies with fully self driving cars just roaming around the streets of SF picking up passengers and I had no idea until I went and saw them driving around.
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
I follow Kyle Vogt on Linkedin who was the Cruise CEO (just resigned when they had their accident). Really interesting follow to see all the stuff they were doing. GM and Honda both have a stake in Cruise.
