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Stock Thread (28 Viewers)

I was cautious with Meta and sold some last year when I thought it was the top and cost myself a ton of dough. Idk how you predict any of this stuff or even try.
Seems pretty bubbly at the moment. Just a matter of how long you want to try and touch the stove in the short term after this huge run up.

Long term Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google do seem pretty safe though.

Google and Apple do not feel as safe to me as the other two. Search seems a little vulnerable, and without that, what is Google exactly?

Apple because they need something new. And another heavy headset isn't it.

Kind of a side note to this, but it's amazing what some of these companies do in addition to their core businesses.

I'm going to make a longer post about this, but I was just in San Francisco and shocked to see that Google has a fully functioning self-driving taxi system out on the roads there. They're still rolling it out slowly so there's a wait list to sign up by my sister in law got off the waitlist so we were able to just pull up an app (Waymo) like Uber, call a car, and a completely driverless vehicle pulled up and drove us around San Francisco. Like literally, the drivers seat was completely empty, in town, in San Francisco traffic, just ferrying us around like an invisible Uber driver.

How did I not know this was already a thing? How can Uber compete with that?
Is Uber/Lyft way cheaper?

I didn't compare them while I was there but I wouldn't see any reason why, especially since Uber has to pay drivers and google doesn't. I would expect Google could very easily undercut Uber on pricing. Our rides seemed pretty cheap for what they were, but I didn't directly compare what an Uber would have cost for the same ride (because I intentionally wanted to try out the self driving cars).

I was talking with an Uber driver the other day and he was saying 75% of the Uber fare goes to the driver, and 25% to Uber. Not sure if that's accurate or not. And then of course there is tip which goes 100% to the driver. So even if Google just matched Uber's pricing it would be cheaper for riders since there is no tip, and then Google would collect 4x as much on the fare as Uber.

Obviously they then have to buy the cars, maintain them, gas, etc. But it seems like they'd make that up pretty quickly. 100 fares a month at $20/fare average is $2000 earned for Google versus $500 earned for Uber (and that's with Uber's users paying more than $2000 overall since they had to tip). So that's a $1500 difference which seems like it should more than cover the car payment/gas/maintenance.

And that's with 100 fares/month (3.3 per day) which seems way on the low end. I think the Uber driver I was talking to said he shoots for about 20 fares per day. So in that case you're talking about $12,000 collected by Google versus $3,000 collected by Uber, even with Google being 20% cheaper for the rider (no tips).

I subscribe to a newsletter called The Daily Upside (which I recommend) and they just had this in this morning’s edition:

“Last year, completely driverless vehicles traversed 3.3 million miles across the Golden State — a five-fold increase from 2022 levels, according to recently released state data. Making up the bulk of the robot-cruising were GM’s Cruise cars, responsible for 63% of the miles autonomously driven, and Google’s Waymo, which accounted for 36%.”

I had no idea GM was so involved to the point they were almost 2-1 to Google in driverless miles in CA. Looks like Cruise was a startup that GM acquired.

One of the reasons I like managing some of my own investments with individual stocks is you keep learning stuff like this. Not even so much what a specific company is doing, but what is trending and you learn about it way before it hits anything resembling mainstream news.

GM's cars had an incident and had their license to operate in CA suspended, at least temporarily. None of them were operating while I was there.

Amazon also had self driving cars going while I was there, but theirs are still earlier in the approval stage so they still had to have a driver sitting in the driver's seat in case of emergencies.

It's kind of crazy to me this has all happened so quietly. All this talk about Tesla FSD and how beyond interstate cruising it keeps getting pushed back and may not even be close. Yet meanwhile I had no idea there are already 3 other companies with fully self driving cars just roaming around the streets of SF picking up passengers and I had no idea until I went and saw them driving around.
I follow Kyle Vogt on Linkedin who was the Cruise CEO (just resigned when they had their accident). Really interesting follow to see all the stuff they were doing. GM and Honda both have a stake in Cruise.
Tried to take one of these Waymo rides in SF last night...needed a special code or something. :kicksrock:
 
PLTR!!

Now keep it this time.
I don’t think it will. The trading volume is ridiculous. 300M shares traded, will probably be 6-7 times normal trading and I think it’s already a pretty heavily traded stock.

The earnings news, the actual numbers, don’t support the move. It’s funny because the “surge” in AI was announced in the earnings call but their Q4 numbers didn’t beat by much and the Q1 outlook is lower than estimates and the full year 2024 is right at estimates. If they just presented the numbers, it seems almost like a bad report because that surge sure doesn’t appear to be hitting their 2024 numbers.
 
PLTR!!

Now keep it this time.
I don’t think it will. The trading volume is ridiculous. 300M shares traded, will probably be 6-7 times normal trading and I think it’s already a pretty heavily traded stock.

The earnings news, the actual numbers, don’t support the move. It’s funny because the “surge” in AI was announced in the earnings call but their Q4 numbers didn’t beat by much and the Q1 outlook is lower than estimates and the full year 2024 is right at estimates. If they just presented the numbers, it seems almost like a bad report because that surge sure doesn’t appear to be hitting their 2024 numbers.
HODL as always.
 
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LOL has SNAP ever had an earnings that wasn't a disaster? Why do I not just short it every time? I feel like I said that like 4 earnings reports ago. Could have retired by now.
 
All I know about SNAP is that my 11 year old daughter wants it and my wife won't let her and I think this might be what actually kicks off WWIII and anytime they start talking about it the dog and I go for a walk and one day.....one day we're not going to return and take that to the bank.
 
PLTR!!

Now keep it this time.
I don’t think it will. The trading volume is ridiculous. 300M shares traded, will probably be 6-7 times normal trading and I think it’s already a pretty heavily traded stock.

The earnings news, the actual numbers, don’t support the move. It’s funny because the “surge” in AI was announced in the earnings call but their Q4 numbers didn’t beat by much and the Q1 outlook is lower than estimates and the full year 2024 is right at estimates. If they just presented the numbers, it seems almost like a bad report because that surge sure doesn’t appear to be hitting their 2024 numbers.
HODL as always.
If you are holding long term, it doesn’t matter. Short term, the up today was far more than the earnings/guidance warranted.
 
LOL has SNAP ever had an earnings that wasn't a disaster? Why do I not just short it every time? I feel like I said that like 4 earnings reports ago. Could have retired by now.
Yea. I thought about this morning but I’ve never done that and don’t plan to. But seriously somebody is making a killing off of them.
 
All I know about SNAP is that my 11 year old daughter wants it and my wife won't let her and I think this might be what actually kicks off WWIII and anytime they start talking about it the dog and I go for a walk and one day.....one day we're not going to return and take that to the bank.
This is all teenagers. It's the first thing my 13 year old wanted. At 17, it's still probably what she uses most. I assume they just do a #### job of monetizing it? IDK, but it seems like something every teen wants and uses should be able to make some scratch.
 
Anyone in FUBO? This one has been on my radar for a while but haven't pulled trigger, down 18% today after earnings.

Yep, they are losing money but an important thing is their subscribers and that is going up.
I have zero interest in it whatsoever and can't see how they'll truly differentiate in the main two crowded markets they are attempting to compete in

The sports package announced last night might finally bring about the inevitable end for $FUBO.
 
Stock market is crazy. Dow up, Nasdaq up, S&P record highs, up and Russell 2000 down
MSFT & AAPL both have market caps greater than the entire Russell 2000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around big numbers to be honest, but how do these megacaps keep going up?
NVDA's market cap went up more than TSLA's market cap over the past 3 months. How
I sold off another 15% of my NVDA when it hit 700 but I feel foolish because these stocks just keep going up. now ARM is up 25% after hours.
 
Stock market is crazy. Dow up, Nasdaq up, S&P record highs, up and Russell 2000 down
MSFT & AAPL both have market caps greater than the entire Russell 2000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around big numbers to be honest, but how do these megacaps keep going up?
NVDA's market cap went up more than TSLA's market cap over the past 3 months. How
I sold off another 15% of my NVDA when it hit 700 but I feel foolish because these stocks just keep going up. now ARM is up 25% after hours.
People like money idk
 
Stock market is crazy. Dow up, Nasdaq up, S&P record highs, up and Russell 2000 down
MSFT & AAPL both have market caps greater than the entire Russell 2000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around big numbers to be honest, but how do these megacaps keep going up?
NVDA's market cap went up more than TSLA's market cap over the past 3 months. How
I sold off another 15% of my NVDA when it hit 700 but I feel foolish because these stocks just keep going up. now ARM is up 25% after hours.
It’s bubbly. The AI bump will fade. Some, like Grantham, think the AI sugar staved off a bear market but just temporarily. I’m less negative but still think AI and chip stocks are way ahead of themselves.
 
I've been selling little bits of NVDA during this run up, starting back at 550. Kind of kicking myself for starting that early, but this thing can't go to 1000, right? Right?
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.

Disney's problem lately has been expenses, not revenue. So if they're showing signs of cutting expenses I think that is what people are looking for.

It's been interesting watching the sentiment around the stock because the theme parks have been more packed than ever and their overall revenue has been higher than ever. It's just that their expenses have BALLOONED. I'm going off memory here but like literally more than tripled from $20B pre-covid to $75B nowadays, annualized.

So people talk about the movies not performing as well and superhero fatigue and the anti-woke crowd pushing back and whatnot but it's like....none of that mattered. Even if you swapped out The Marvels terrible box office performance for that of Infinity War (one of the top grossing movies of all-time) it would have made almost no impact in EPS. The problem hasn't been that Disney missing on a movie meant they did $85.1B instead of $81.6B in revenue. The problem has been that they've been spending $75B instead of $20B.

I meant to make a big long post on this a month or so ago to see what I was missing but never got around to it, but looks like I wasn't really missing anything. Basically a slight miss on the top line is essentially irrelevant because the top line is already great. Their problem has been the bottom line. So a big beat on the bottom line is MUCH more important.
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.

Not going to pretend I know anything, but I think the investment Disney is putting into Epic Games (Fortnite) might be helping.
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.

Disney's problem lately has been expenses, not revenue. So if they're showing signs of cutting expenses I think that is what people are looking for.

It's been interesting watching the sentiment around the stock because the theme parks have been more packed than ever and their overall revenue has been higher than ever. It's just that their expenses have BALLOONED. I'm going off memory here but like literally more than tripled from $20B pre-covid to $75B nowadays, annualized.

So people talk about the movies not performing as well and superhero fatigue and the anti-woke crowd pushing back and whatnot but it's like....none of that mattered. Even if you swapped out The Marvels terrible box office performance for that of Infinity War (one of the top grossing movies of all-time) it would have made almost no impact in EPS. The problem hasn't been that Disney missing on a movie meant they did $85.1B instead of $81.6B in revenue. The problem has been that they've been spending $75B instead of $20B.

I meant to make a big long post on this a month or so ago to see what I was missing but never got around to it, but looks like I wasn't really missing anything. Basically a slight miss on the top line is essentially irrelevant because the top line is already great. Their problem has been the bottom line. So a big beat on the bottom line is MUCH more important.
What drove the spend?
 
It's time for your intermittent LHUCKS graph here.


Stone cold lock.
So you’re saying sell? I was just shopping for some new ETFs. My goodness, they are almost all at or near 52 week highs. Think I’ll leave my cash at 5.27% in the money market for a spell.

All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs

That said, if you look deeper and outside of the top few stocks there seem to be signs that things aren't quite as good as they seem.

So, just like everyone else, in the short term I have no idea what's going to happen!
 
It's time for your intermittent LHUCKS graph here.


Stone cold lock.
So you’re saying sell? I was just shopping for some new ETFs. My goodness, they are almost all at or near 52 week highs. Think I’ll leave my cash at 5.27% in the money market for a spell.

Sand is kind of a permabear.
I just thought it was interesting. Officially put me down for an 8% correction soonish then an extension to more all time highs. We're way over bought currently and market breadth sucks badly.

In the stock market contest I predicted 5555 by years end.
 
It's time for your intermittent LHUCKS graph here.


Stone cold lock.
So you’re saying sell? I was just shopping for some new ETFs. My goodness, they are almost all at or near 52 week highs. Think I’ll leave my cash at 5.27% in the money market for a spell.

All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs

That said, if you look deeper and outside of the top few stocks there seem to be signs that things aren't quite as good as they seem.

So, just like everyone else, in the short term I have no idea what's going to happen!

It sure seems the stock market hits more all-time highs than all-time lows
 

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