Reportings are 100% consumer sentiment.
TSLA numbers miss expectations, but the stock jumps up because Musk says they are going to make more affordable models, maybe by 2025. And it jumped 8% before he even said that.
META numbers beat expectations, but the stock slumps because they said they're revising 2nd quarter projections down. However, last quarter after a small head fake down META jumped 20% on Friday AFTER the other big guys reported. I wonder if there isn't a chance to make some quick money on them with insurance knowing you just bought a big dip if you have to hold on longer.
Random analyst? I thought it was a "consensus". And I see a fund as a consumer.Reportings are 100% consumer sentiment.
TSLA numbers miss expectations, but the stock jumps up because Musk says they are going to make more affordable models, maybe by 2025. And it jumped 8% before he even said that.
META numbers beat expectations, but the stock slumps because they said they're revising 2nd quarter projections down. However, last quarter after a small head fake down META jumped 20% on Friday AFTER the other big guys reported. I wonder if there isn't a chance to make some quick money on them with insurance knowing you just bought a big dip if you have to hold on longer.
The reality is people like you and me don't factor into earnings at all. It's not like average joes read through the earnings report and found the part about the more affordable model in 48 seconds. That was a fund with a team of people sitting at the ready specifically looking to find that info as fast as possible.
This is the same thing with "beating" vs "missing" earnings and the stock sometimes behaving the opposite. Because the "estimates" are really pretty irrelevant. It doesn't matter what some random analyst says that Meta should have an EPS of $XX. If a fund with a billion dollars invested in Meta and another billion ready to deploy thinks that Meta should have an EPS of $YY or they're getting out of the trade, that's the number that actually matters.
If a report is a "miss" against "the street estimates" but a "hit" against what a fund with a crapton of money wants to see, then the fact that it was technically a "miss" doesn't actually matter.
Random analyst? I thought it was a "consensus". And I see a fund as a consumer.Reportings are 100% consumer sentiment.
TSLA numbers miss expectations, but the stock jumps up because Musk says they are going to make more affordable models, maybe by 2025. And it jumped 8% before he even said that.
META numbers beat expectations, but the stock slumps because they said they're revising 2nd quarter projections down. However, last quarter after a small head fake down META jumped 20% on Friday AFTER the other big guys reported. I wonder if there isn't a chance to make some quick money on them with insurance knowing you just bought a big dip if you have to hold on longer.
The reality is people like you and me don't factor into earnings at all. It's not like average joes read through the earnings report and found the part about the more affordable model in 48 seconds. That was a fund with a team of people sitting at the ready specifically looking to find that info as fast as possible.
This is the same thing with "beating" vs "missing" earnings and the stock sometimes behaving the opposite. Because the "estimates" are really pretty irrelevant. It doesn't matter what some random analyst says that Meta should have an EPS of $XX. If a fund with a billion dollars invested in Meta and another billion ready to deploy thinks that Meta should have an EPS of $YY or they're getting out of the trade, that's the number that actually matters.
If a report is a "miss" against "the street estimates" but a "hit" against what a fund with a crapton of money wants to see, then the fact that it was technically a "miss" doesn't actually matter.
Is this like a team scout(s) having a significantly different grade on a player than everyone else so they get drafted a lot higher than expected? I can see how that would cause a run on WRs and WRs value suddenly becomes higher or lower, temporarily.
I kind of like the idea that the economy is clicking but we have rate cuts in the holster if things get upended. Let it ride, my Fed dudes.
Yea I think I’ll take the best two days off and think of my meta gains these past two years.Pain
I've "loaded the boat" today ... and will be holding long term.META down 12% after hours on weaker guidance.
Folks….go long.
Add more tomorrow
Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Be patient. $1523 is still a great price for a long term hold. Btc price discovery is just around the corner.Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
That would get me back to a small gain. I bought a few weeks ago at $1,523 on the pull back from the ATH, but it's just kept dropping.
What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
What people are hammering META for (more investment in AI than expected!) is helping NVDA AND ANET (more investment in AI than expected!)Seeing a pattern again today that I feel like I've seen numerous times in the last year. Overall market pretty down but NVDA up quite a bit. Interesting.
Bought some $CLS options. Great earnings, raised guidance, was up over 6% AH last night but has been dragged down to flat/lower with the market today. Still only 14.85 forward P/E.$CLS taking off again today. Still only 14.5X Forward Earnings.I hesitate to bring anything growthy up here anymore because how people trade and scale are different and so are risk appetites but...We've got to be able to identify the beneficiaries of the AI boom. It won't only be NVDA. Maybe it's competition, maybe it's complementary services, maybe it's yet to be identified. Who will be the Oracle to Microsoft, the Dell to Hewlett-Packard, the Sun Microsystems to IBM?
Can Palantir be the software platform that companies rely on to leverage AI? They have a strong hold on government contracts and are moving to the commercial private sector. If they can do in private industry what they've done at the federal level, they will do very well...
I’ve been thinking about this a bit, too. Who else will benefit that hasn’t already gone parabolic? Thinking software companies like Adobe, SIs like Accenture, data center REITs, that kind of thing.
They're up big recently and today but $CLS is still cheap. Using AI in logistics, growing fast.
SNAP reports tonight. Hold onto your Trade Desks.
ETA: I just turned green on the day.
Well la-dee-####ing-daYea I’m green in my account without Meta. Gb nvda.
SNAP reports tonight. Hold onto your Trade Desks.
ETA: I just turned green on the day.
Whoa...up over 20%. Nice hit on what was left.SNAP reports tonight. Hold onto your Trade Desks.
ETA: I just turned green on the day.
Sold 2/3 of my SNAP position down about 1%, just didn't see the bump they typically get going into the post-earnings crash. Was going to sell all but figured I'd roll the dice and see what happens with a little bit!
This seems like a sign of the apocalypse or something.Whoa...up over 20%. Nice hit on what was left.SNAP reports tonight. Hold onto your Trade Desks.
ETA: I just turned green on the day.
Sold 2/3 of my SNAP position down about 1%, just didn't see the bump they typically get going into the post-earnings crash. Was going to sell all but figured I'd roll the dice and see what happens with a little bit!
Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
And Trade Desk is up 5% after hours. This is like when George goes up to that woman and says he's 35, unemployed, and lives with his parents and she's totally down for it.This seems like a sign of the apocalypse or something.Whoa...up over 20%. Nice hit on what was left.SNAP reports tonight. Hold onto your Trade Desks.
ETA: I just turned green on the day.
Sold 2/3 of my SNAP position down about 1%, just didn't see the bump they typically get going into the post-earnings crash. Was going to sell all but figured I'd roll the dice and see what happens with a little bit!
Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
6 to midnight!GOOGL!
Also a dividend
Educate the uneducated, if you would be so kind.Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
Invest in things you hope to grow in your brokerage accountGOOGL!
Also a dividend
n/m. I went lookingEducate the uneducated, if you would be so kind.Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
From what I've put together the last few days, its kind of a double edged sword...That has to be priced in, at least to some extent, though. No?
Their AI seems to be pretty impressiveMETA down 12% after hours on weaker guidance.
This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
The company is currently undervalued due to accounting rules. As I understand it...This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
No wonder a bunch of accountants are canceling them.The company is currently undervalued due to accounting rules. As I understand it...This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
Current State: You buy BTC at $70k. BTC value craters to $30k. You have to re-evaluate the carrying value of that crypto (annually, I believe), and if it is impaired, you recognize that loss as a reduction of pre-tax income (You just lost $40k * # of BTC you hold).
If that crypto then goes back up to $70k by the point your annual re-valuation takes place, it's obviously good for your company, but right now you can't recognize that increase in the value of your impaired BTC. They remain valued at $30k on your balance sheet.
Think about the volatility in crypto. For a company like MSTR, that means their balance sheet for the BTC they've held since '21-'22 reflects values significantly below current value.
Revised Rules: Effective in 2025, but apparently able to be implemented sooner, companies are allowed to switch to a Fair Value methodology. Companies like MSTR must revalue quarterly to recognize the Fair Value of their crypto. So those shares that have been on heir balance sheet at $30k will immediately snap back to $60k+ on their balance sheet going forward. They become a much more valuable company by accounting standards. And that increase in value will pass through to their bottom line as income.
It doesn't change the "real" value of the company. But lots of accounting requirements cause divergence between balance sheet value and liquidation value, and they can swing both ways.
The company is currently undervalued due to accounting rules. As I understand it...This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
Current State: You buy BTC at $70k. BTC value craters to $30k. You have to re-evaluate the carrying value of that crypto (annually, I believe), and if it is impaired, you recognize that loss as a reduction of pre-tax income (You just lost $40k * # of BTC you hold).
If that crypto then goes back up to $70k by the point your annual re-valuation takes place, it's obviously good for your company, but right now you can't recognize that increase in the value of your impaired BTC. They remain valued at $30k on your balance sheet.
Think about the volatility in crypto. For a company like MSTR, that means their balance sheet for the BTC they've held since '21-'22 reflects values significantly below current value.
Revised Rules: Effective in 2025, but apparently able to be implemented sooner, companies are allowed to switch to a Fair Value methodology. Companies like MSTR must revalue quarterly to recognize the Fair Value of their crypto. So those shares that have been on heir balance sheet at $30k will immediately snap back to $60k+ on their balance sheet going forward. They become a much more valuable company by accounting standards. And that increase in value will pass through to their bottom line as income.
It doesn't change the "real" value of the company. But lots of accounting requirements cause divergence between balance sheet value and liquidation value, and they can swing both ways.
I think I’d disagree on the undervalued part. That’s been a short seller argument that if you buy MSTR as a BTC vehicle you are paying way more than the current spot price of BTC. The market cap is $22B and the BTC holdings are $14B. Not sure how much debt they have because they have been buying more BTC by selling debt but as you can see buying a share would get you around 60% of the share price in BTC. Buy BTC via ETF and you get 100% of the share price you pay.The company is currently undervalued due to accounting rules. As I understand it...This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
Current State: You buy BTC at $70k. BTC value craters to $30k. You have to re-evaluate the carrying value of that crypto (annually, I believe), and if it is impaired, you recognize that loss as a reduction of pre-tax income (You just lost $40k * # of BTC you hold).
If that crypto then goes back up to $70k by the point your annual re-valuation takes place, it's obviously good for your company, but right now you can't recognize that increase in the value of your impaired BTC. They remain valued at $30k on your balance sheet.
Think about the volatility in crypto. For a company like MSTR, that means their balance sheet for the BTC they've held since '21-'22 reflects values significantly below current value.
Revised Rules: Effective in 2025, but apparently able to be implemented sooner, companies are allowed to switch to a Fair Value methodology. Companies like MSTR must revalue quarterly to recognize the Fair Value of their crypto. So those shares that have been on heir balance sheet at $30k will immediately snap back to $60k+ on their balance sheet going forward. They become a much more valuable company by accounting standards. And that increase in value will pass through to their bottom line as income.
It doesn't change the "real" value of the company. But lots of accounting requirements cause divergence between balance sheet value and liquidation value, and they can swing both ways.
Wait, he’s been selling all his shares so that the company can be in the S&P? How does that work?The company is currently undervalued due to accounting rules. As I understand it...This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
Current State: You buy BTC at $70k. BTC value craters to $30k. You have to re-evaluate the carrying value of that crypto (annually, I believe), and if it is impaired, you recognize that loss as a reduction of pre-tax income (You just lost $40k * # of BTC you hold).
If that crypto then goes back up to $70k by the point your annual re-valuation takes place, it's obviously good for your company, but right now you can't recognize that increase in the value of your impaired BTC. They remain valued at $30k on your balance sheet.
Think about the volatility in crypto. For a company like MSTR, that means their balance sheet for the BTC they've held since '21-'22 reflects values significantly below current value.
Revised Rules: Effective in 2025, but apparently able to be implemented sooner, companies are allowed to switch to a Fair Value methodology. Companies like MSTR must revalue quarterly to recognize the Fair Value of their crypto. So those shares that have been on heir balance sheet at $30k will immediately snap back to $60k+ on their balance sheet going forward. They become a much more valuable company by accounting standards. And that increase in value will pass through to their bottom line as income.
It doesn't change the "real" value of the company. But lots of accounting requirements cause divergence between balance sheet value and liquidation value, and they can swing both ways.
I believe the company will bend over backwards for that sp 500 inclusion and they really need to show a profit to keep short term hopes of that alive. It is the reason Saylor has been selling his shares hoping for inclusion.
Also, they need to keep their share price high because they are using that as leverage to fund their bitcoin purchases. Which is why we won't see any type of split anytime soon
This is usually a reason to short a company. Reverse splits are basically like putting a company into hospice.They are doing a 25/1 reverse split on 4/29.
A change in accounting rules and nothing else is going to boost the value of the assets they hold on their balance sheet. The value of those assets is understated relative to market value.I think I’d disagree on the undervalued part. That’s been a short seller argument that if you buy MSTR as a BTC vehicle you are paying way more than the current spot price of BTC. The market cap is $22B and the BTC holdings are $14B. Not sure how much debt they have because they have been buying more BTC by selling debt but as you can see buying a share would get you around 60% of the share price in BTC. Buy BTC via ETF and you get 100% of the share price you pay.The company is currently undervalued due to accounting rules. As I understand it...This is the part that is confusing to me ...Earnings, which I think they will 5x the estimates just based on the new accounting rules.What is happening next week that might drive up the price? ER??Mark my words, $MSTR gonna run up 30%+ next week.
Currently at $1,238.
Also think we hit btc new all time highs by next friday with price discovery potentially getting wild.
so the company isn't doing anything to generate more revenue or profit, no new ideas or products, ... they are just changing how they report earnings so that it SHOWS more profit.
I don't see how this makes the company / stock more valuable but apparently it does.
Current State: You buy BTC at $70k. BTC value craters to $30k. You have to re-evaluate the carrying value of that crypto (annually, I believe), and if it is impaired, you recognize that loss as a reduction of pre-tax income (You just lost $40k * # of BTC you hold).
If that crypto then goes back up to $70k by the point your annual re-valuation takes place, it's obviously good for your company, but right now you can't recognize that increase in the value of your impaired BTC. They remain valued at $30k on your balance sheet.
Think about the volatility in crypto. For a company like MSTR, that means their balance sheet for the BTC they've held since '21-'22 reflects values significantly below current value.
Revised Rules: Effective in 2025, but apparently able to be implemented sooner, companies are allowed to switch to a Fair Value methodology. Companies like MSTR must revalue quarterly to recognize the Fair Value of their crypto. So those shares that have been on heir balance sheet at $30k will immediately snap back to $60k+ on their balance sheet going forward. They become a much more valuable company by accounting standards. And that increase in value will pass through to their bottom line as income.
It doesn't change the "real" value of the company. But lots of accounting requirements cause divergence between balance sheet value and liquidation value, and they can swing both ways.
I think the accounting rule change is only there to hope that they can get into the S&P index, hoping that drives up the price, which again would mean you are getting less BTC per share.