Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
More for fun since its mid February, pre-combine, so it is early but not to early to try and speculate and figure out the top ten picks of the draft and get a hanlde on what teams might be thinking.
Here is what I am thinking at this time.
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1. Carolina - DT Nick Farley
Reasoning for the pick: Wideouts touch the ball at best ten times per game, infrequent impact and prohibabitive pricetag discredit WR with top pick. The Panthers could go QB, either Newton or Gabbert but its tough for a newly installed NFL HC that already has a young QB like Clausen to change and go in another direction at QB without having the first-hand evaluation of whether or not the young guy can play or not so I can’t see them going QB with the firt pick. They could go with DE Da Quan Bowers but they recently let DE Julius Peppers go and drafted DE Everette Brown. They didn’t want to pay a big salary for a proven DE in his prime so how can they jusitfy more money for an unproven rookie DE? Thier simply isn't a no-brain selection so I default to Bill Parcels Planet Theory that states there are only so many big men who can move and who have the physical ability to dominate at the DT position. Fairley has potential to dominate.
2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers
Reasoning: The Broncos are switching back to the 4-3 and will move two 3-4 OLBers to 4-3 DE but neither have the frame of a legit 4-3 DE. Elvis Dumervill is 5'11 and is coming off of surgery and now he’ll have to play up on the LOS all of the time so I think he’ll wear down. At the other DE position they have buster OLB/DE Robert Ayers moving up and at best he’s a weak link on the defense. I think the Broncos will re-sign Cham Bailey so that discounts Pat Peterson. Its difficult to find top flight 4-3 DEs who can both rush the passer and play stout run defense. This class of DEs has guys who can rush the passer but few who can plug the run and pressure the QB but Bowers can do it all.
3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Paterson
Reasoning: The Bills aren’t in dire need at WR or Green would be a possibility here. I can envisage Cam Newton throwing thru gusts of wind and snow and ice in December and terrorizing opponents for the next decade but the Bills play in a division with Derrelle Revis and I think they see the same type of shut-down corner in Paterson and will go with the proven talent at an area of need.
4. Cincinnati - WR A.J. Green
Reasoning: Green may be the most talented player in this draft. Its time to move on from Ocho and TO. Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, and Cadwell are all good wide receivers but none can be said to be legit #1 wideouts like Ocho or TO. For the Bengals to divorce themselves from the terrible duo and move on they need a talent like Green to slam the door. An argument can be made for Newton if the Bengals dish Carson Palmer and it is possible that a team like Minnesota could offer their first round pick for Palmer. If something like that happens then Newton goes off the board here but the Bengals never seem to make trades. It seems like they won’t trade a problem guy like Chad Johnson when his value is high and keep them so I don’t think the Brown family will let Carson go unless they get a great offer and they don’t seem capable of making those types of deals so Green appears the logical selection.
5. Arizona - LB Von Miller
Reasoning: I think the Cards will end up liking Newton but I can see them hesitant to pull the trigger. I don't think they are sold on Gabbert but many teams are interested in Newton so they consider trading down but don't want to miss out on Miller unless they get a lot in return. I think they will show a great interest in both QBs and that fake will work and the phone will ring off the hook when they are on the clock but the Cardinals will ask for a bit too much in return for moving down so in the end will go with their default pick of Miller. Why Miller? Joey Porter is ancient and they need pass rushing OLBers and that is Von Miller.
6. **trade** Cleveland trades down with Washington**Washington - QB Cam Newton
Reasoning for the trade: The Cards stoked the fires of teams wanting to trade up for Newton and the Browns benefit as Newton falls and Cleveland isn't asking Arizona’s exorbitant price to move down. The top guys that the Browns wanted are both off the board, Bowers and Green, so they can move down and pick someone who they probably would take at 6 but get them cheaper and pick up an extra pick. Mike Shannahan wants to move on from McNabb and in the past he has moved up in the first round of the draft to get a QB, Jay Cutler. Shanny knows San Fran would take Cam if he didn’t move up with Cleveland and the price is reasonable so they are willing to move up for a 2nd rounder this year instead of what the Cards would ask, next year’s 1st round pick, so Shannahan does the internal calculas and makes decides its his best shot to land a franchise QB so he pulls the trigger and makes the deal.
Reasoning for the pick: The Skins need a QB and Newton could be a great one especially with a QB guru like Shannahan coaching him up.
7. San Francisco - QB Blaine Gabbert
Reasoning for the pick: The Niners would have preferred Newton and they simply cannot go on with only having Alex Smith as their only quarterback option. They have time to develop a rookie with Smith but they need someone in the bullpen heating up for the eventual hook.
8. Tennessee - DE/DT Marcell Dereus
Reasoning: The Titans miss on the QBs and none of the other top talents slide so go they default to the Planet Theory and take the best of the big men left on the board.
9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara
Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.
10. **trade** Cleveland w/Washington - DE Robert Quinn
Reasoning: The Browns are switching to a 4-3 defense so although J.J. Watt is rated higher on nearly all draft boards at this time he’s a five-tech 3-4 DE. The Browns could go with WR Julio Jones or Watt or others but I think they will go with Quinn due to superior pass rush ability (Watt had only 3.5 sacks last year) and because he’s a pure 4-3 DE. The Browns need pass rushers on the line and they lack them at this juncture so I think if they trade down that they would be happy to take a gamble on Quinn if they picked up an extra second rounder to offset the risk.
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Thoughts?
Here is what I am thinking at this time.
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1. Carolina - DT Nick Farley
Reasoning for the pick: Wideouts touch the ball at best ten times per game, infrequent impact and prohibabitive pricetag discredit WR with top pick. The Panthers could go QB, either Newton or Gabbert but its tough for a newly installed NFL HC that already has a young QB like Clausen to change and go in another direction at QB without having the first-hand evaluation of whether or not the young guy can play or not so I can’t see them going QB with the firt pick. They could go with DE Da Quan Bowers but they recently let DE Julius Peppers go and drafted DE Everette Brown. They didn’t want to pay a big salary for a proven DE in his prime so how can they jusitfy more money for an unproven rookie DE? Thier simply isn't a no-brain selection so I default to Bill Parcels Planet Theory that states there are only so many big men who can move and who have the physical ability to dominate at the DT position. Fairley has potential to dominate.
2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers
Reasoning: The Broncos are switching back to the 4-3 and will move two 3-4 OLBers to 4-3 DE but neither have the frame of a legit 4-3 DE. Elvis Dumervill is 5'11 and is coming off of surgery and now he’ll have to play up on the LOS all of the time so I think he’ll wear down. At the other DE position they have buster OLB/DE Robert Ayers moving up and at best he’s a weak link on the defense. I think the Broncos will re-sign Cham Bailey so that discounts Pat Peterson. Its difficult to find top flight 4-3 DEs who can both rush the passer and play stout run defense. This class of DEs has guys who can rush the passer but few who can plug the run and pressure the QB but Bowers can do it all.
3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Paterson
Reasoning: The Bills aren’t in dire need at WR or Green would be a possibility here. I can envisage Cam Newton throwing thru gusts of wind and snow and ice in December and terrorizing opponents for the next decade but the Bills play in a division with Derrelle Revis and I think they see the same type of shut-down corner in Paterson and will go with the proven talent at an area of need.
4. Cincinnati - WR A.J. Green
Reasoning: Green may be the most talented player in this draft. Its time to move on from Ocho and TO. Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, and Cadwell are all good wide receivers but none can be said to be legit #1 wideouts like Ocho or TO. For the Bengals to divorce themselves from the terrible duo and move on they need a talent like Green to slam the door. An argument can be made for Newton if the Bengals dish Carson Palmer and it is possible that a team like Minnesota could offer their first round pick for Palmer. If something like that happens then Newton goes off the board here but the Bengals never seem to make trades. It seems like they won’t trade a problem guy like Chad Johnson when his value is high and keep them so I don’t think the Brown family will let Carson go unless they get a great offer and they don’t seem capable of making those types of deals so Green appears the logical selection.
5. Arizona - LB Von Miller
Reasoning: I think the Cards will end up liking Newton but I can see them hesitant to pull the trigger. I don't think they are sold on Gabbert but many teams are interested in Newton so they consider trading down but don't want to miss out on Miller unless they get a lot in return. I think they will show a great interest in both QBs and that fake will work and the phone will ring off the hook when they are on the clock but the Cardinals will ask for a bit too much in return for moving down so in the end will go with their default pick of Miller. Why Miller? Joey Porter is ancient and they need pass rushing OLBers and that is Von Miller.
6. **trade** Cleveland trades down with Washington**Washington - QB Cam Newton
Reasoning for the trade: The Cards stoked the fires of teams wanting to trade up for Newton and the Browns benefit as Newton falls and Cleveland isn't asking Arizona’s exorbitant price to move down. The top guys that the Browns wanted are both off the board, Bowers and Green, so they can move down and pick someone who they probably would take at 6 but get them cheaper and pick up an extra pick. Mike Shannahan wants to move on from McNabb and in the past he has moved up in the first round of the draft to get a QB, Jay Cutler. Shanny knows San Fran would take Cam if he didn’t move up with Cleveland and the price is reasonable so they are willing to move up for a 2nd rounder this year instead of what the Cards would ask, next year’s 1st round pick, so Shannahan does the internal calculas and makes decides its his best shot to land a franchise QB so he pulls the trigger and makes the deal.
Reasoning for the pick: The Skins need a QB and Newton could be a great one especially with a QB guru like Shannahan coaching him up.
7. San Francisco - QB Blaine Gabbert
Reasoning for the pick: The Niners would have preferred Newton and they simply cannot go on with only having Alex Smith as their only quarterback option. They have time to develop a rookie with Smith but they need someone in the bullpen heating up for the eventual hook.
8. Tennessee - DE/DT Marcell Dereus
Reasoning: The Titans miss on the QBs and none of the other top talents slide so go they default to the Planet Theory and take the best of the big men left on the board.
9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara
Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.
10. **trade** Cleveland w/Washington - DE Robert Quinn
Reasoning: The Browns are switching to a 4-3 defense so although J.J. Watt is rated higher on nearly all draft boards at this time he’s a five-tech 3-4 DE. The Browns could go with WR Julio Jones or Watt or others but I think they will go with Quinn due to superior pass rush ability (Watt had only 3.5 sacks last year) and because he’s a pure 4-3 DE. The Browns need pass rushers on the line and they lack them at this juncture so I think if they trade down that they would be happy to take a gamble on Quinn if they picked up an extra second rounder to offset the risk.
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Thoughts?