2011 draft (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

More for fun since its mid February, pre-combine, so it is early but not to early to try and speculate and figure out the top ten picks of the draft and get a hanlde on what teams might be thinking.

Here is what I am thinking at this time.

==============

1. Carolina - DT Nick Farley

Reasoning for the pick: Wideouts touch the ball at best ten times per game, infrequent impact and prohibabitive pricetag discredit WR with top pick. The Panthers could go QB, either Newton or Gabbert but its tough for a newly installed NFL HC that already has a young QB like Clausen to change and go in another direction at QB without having the first-hand evaluation of whether or not the young guy can play or not so I can’t see them going QB with the firt pick. They could go with DE Da Quan Bowers but they recently let DE Julius Peppers go and drafted DE Everette Brown. They didn’t want to pay a big salary for a proven DE in his prime so how can they jusitfy more money for an unproven rookie DE? Thier simply isn't a no-brain selection so I default to Bill Parcels Planet Theory that states there are only so many big men who can move and who have the physical ability to dominate at the DT position. Fairley has potential to dominate.

2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers

Reasoning: The Broncos are switching back to the 4-3 and will move two 3-4 OLBers to 4-3 DE but neither have the frame of a legit 4-3 DE. Elvis Dumervill is 5'11 and is coming off of surgery and now he’ll have to play up on the LOS all of the time so I think he’ll wear down. At the other DE position they have buster OLB/DE Robert Ayers moving up and at best he’s a weak link on the defense. I think the Broncos will re-sign Cham Bailey so that discounts Pat Peterson. Its difficult to find top flight 4-3 DEs who can both rush the passer and play stout run defense. This class of DEs has guys who can rush the passer but few who can plug the run and pressure the QB but Bowers can do it all.

3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Paterson

Reasoning: The Bills aren’t in dire need at WR or Green would be a possibility here. I can envisage Cam Newton throwing thru gusts of wind and snow and ice in December and terrorizing opponents for the next decade but the Bills play in a division with Derrelle Revis and I think they see the same type of shut-down corner in Paterson and will go with the proven talent at an area of need.

4. Cincinnati - WR A.J. Green

Reasoning: Green may be the most talented player in this draft. Its time to move on from Ocho and TO. Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, and Cadwell are all good wide receivers but none can be said to be legit #1 wideouts like Ocho or TO. For the Bengals to divorce themselves from the terrible duo and move on they need a talent like Green to slam the door. An argument can be made for Newton if the Bengals dish Carson Palmer and it is possible that a team like Minnesota could offer their first round pick for Palmer. If something like that happens then Newton goes off the board here but the Bengals never seem to make trades. It seems like they won’t trade a problem guy like Chad Johnson when his value is high and keep them so I don’t think the Brown family will let Carson go unless they get a great offer and they don’t seem capable of making those types of deals so Green appears the logical selection.

5. Arizona - LB Von Miller

Reasoning: I think the Cards will end up liking Newton but I can see them hesitant to pull the trigger. I don't think they are sold on Gabbert but many teams are interested in Newton so they consider trading down but don't want to miss out on Miller unless they get a lot in return. I think they will show a great interest in both QBs and that fake will work and the phone will ring off the hook when they are on the clock but the Cardinals will ask for a bit too much in return for moving down so in the end will go with their default pick of Miller. Why Miller? Joey Porter is ancient and they need pass rushing OLBers and that is Von Miller.

6. **trade** Cleveland trades down with Washington**Washington - QB Cam Newton

Reasoning for the trade: The Cards stoked the fires of teams wanting to trade up for Newton and the Browns benefit as Newton falls and Cleveland isn't asking Arizona’s exorbitant price to move down. The top guys that the Browns wanted are both off the board, Bowers and Green, so they can move down and pick someone who they probably would take at 6 but get them cheaper and pick up an extra pick. Mike Shannahan wants to move on from McNabb and in the past he has moved up in the first round of the draft to get a QB, Jay Cutler. Shanny knows San Fran would take Cam if he didn’t move up with Cleveland and the price is reasonable so they are willing to move up for a 2nd rounder this year instead of what the Cards would ask, next year’s 1st round pick, so Shannahan does the internal calculas and makes decides its his best shot to land a franchise QB so he pulls the trigger and makes the deal.

Reasoning for the pick: The Skins need a QB and Newton could be a great one especially with a QB guru like Shannahan coaching him up.

7. San Francisco - QB Blaine Gabbert

Reasoning for the pick: The Niners would have preferred Newton and they simply cannot go on with only having Alex Smith as their only quarterback option. They have time to develop a rookie with Smith but they need someone in the bullpen heating up for the eventual hook.

8. Tennessee - DE/DT Marcell Dereus

Reasoning: The Titans miss on the QBs and none of the other top talents slide so go they default to the Planet Theory and take the best of the big men left on the board.

9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara

Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.

10. **trade** Cleveland w/Washington - DE Robert Quinn

Reasoning: The Browns are switching to a 4-3 defense so although J.J. Watt is rated higher on nearly all draft boards at this time he’s a five-tech 3-4 DE. The Browns could go with WR Julio Jones or Watt or others but I think they will go with Quinn due to superior pass rush ability (Watt had only 3.5 sacks last year) and because he’s a pure 4-3 DE. The Browns need pass rushers on the line and they lack them at this juncture so I think if they trade down that they would be happy to take a gamble on Quinn if they picked up an extra second rounder to offset the risk.

==========

Thoughts?

 

[QuizGuy66]

I know I've seen Green to the Bengals everywhere, but I don't think they are going to go that way in round 1, I really don't.

I'd just as soon see them trade down and keep the guys that have worked their way up like Simpson and Caldwell in the starting spots.

-QG

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I know I've seen Green to the Bengals everywhere, but I don't think they are going to go that way in round 1, I really don't.I'd just as soon see them trade down and keep the guys that have worked their way up like Simpson and Caldwell in the starting spots.-QG

I would imagine every team in the top seven/eight would love to trade down but its prohibative in the top five picks especially if a team moves up for a QB but the majority of moves up into the top five are for QBs since they have the highest possible return.The problem I see with the Bengals is they don't have a history of making trades in the draft. Some front offices have a reputation for making draft day trades. The only trade I proposed took into account how that deal could play out and both Shannahan and Heckert, the GM for the Browns, have a history of making draft day trades and Shanny made a very similiar deal in the first round when he moved up only two places to take Cutler so this seems reasonable.Per A.J. Green. I like what I saw of Shipley but he's a slot WR as is Caldwell. I think Simpson would work better as a #2 WR to get open. He feasted off of second tier coverage at the end of last year but I think it would be a different story if he had to face the #1 DB or be matched against double coverage each week. If Ocho and TO leave the Nati they'll need a legit #1 WR to free up Jerome Simpson and Green looks like a sure bet.I think its a good pick.

 

[RustyFA2]

Elvis Dumervill racked up over 10 sacks a couple times playing in the 4-3 so DE may ot be the biggest need for Denver. This is a deep DE class so they may end up with a 1st round talent at teh top of round 2. I think the Broncos will go DT unless they think that Peterson can play CB.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I know I've seen Green to the Bengals everywhere, but I don't think they are going to go that way in round 1, I really don't.I'd just as soon see them trade down and keep the guys that have worked their way up like Simpson and Caldwell in the starting spots.-QG

I would imagine every team in the top seven/eight would love to trade down but its prohibative in the top five picks especially if a team moves up for a QB but the majority of moves up into the top five are for QBs since they have the highest possible return.The problem I see with the Bengals is they don't have a history of making trades in the draft. Some front offices have a reputation for making draft day trades. The only trade I proposed took into account how that deal could play out and both Shannahan and Heckert, the GM for the Browns, have a history of making draft day trades and Shanny made a very similiar deal in the first round when he moved up only two places to take Cutler so this seems reasonable.Per A.J. Green. I like what I saw of Shipley but he's a slot WR as is Caldwell. I think Simpson would work better as a #2 WR to get open. He feasted off of second tier coverage at the end of last year but I think it would be a different story if he had to face the #1 DB or be matched against double coverage each week. If Ocho and TO leave the Nati they'll need a legit #1 WR to free up Jerome Simpson and Green looks like a sure bet.I think its a good pick.

Oops, didn't mean to leave the impression that the Bengals would trade the pick - they pretty much never do. If they somehow did I think it'd indicate that Marvin really has a bigger hand in running the show, that's all. Bad things have tended to happen on those rare occasions when we have traded on draft day.I think the sample size on Simpson is too small to make that final judgment on whether he can be a #1, I guess . He's always had the raw talent, it's just the other things that he's had to catch up with and I think that's finally happening. The idea of taking a top line receiver at #4 scares me a little I guess because the odds of us having yet another diva is not appealing to me. If you look back at the last 15 or so Super Bowls, they really aren't replete with that many 1st round picks at WR as well. Our track record with getting talent at this position in round 2 is much much better as well.I see the trade route as slightly plausible if they don't want Green as someone might be willing to go up and get him. I'd like to see what the lunch pail kids can do if given the keys. Knocking 2 back to #4 would be an insult to the hard work he's put becoming a good run blocker (Caldwell came in a lot in those situations late last year even before Ocho and TO were out). Premier pash-rushers are a lot harder to come by than WRs good enough to give you a deep playoff run IMO. -QG

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Elvis Dumervill racked up over 10 sacks a couple times playing in the 4-3 so DE may ot be the biggest need for Denver. This is a deep DE class so they may end up with a 1st round talent at teh top of round 2. I think the Broncos will go DT unless they think that Peterson can play CB.

Dumervill is an excellent pass rusher but in the three seasons that he played DE he only had one season where he exceeded ten sacks and his last full-time play as a 4-3 DE he only managed 5 sacks.llink to ESPN Dumervill player page

--------- SACK

2006 DEN - 8.5

2007 DEN -12.5

2008 DEN - 5.0

He switched to weakside OLB in the 3-4 in 2009 and had 17 sacks and made the Pro Bowl.

Last year he was injured after signing a big contract and didn't play.

I won't take anything away from Elvis but he may be the smallest DE in the NFL at Height 5-11 and 248 lbs. His sack totals are impressive but his tackle numbers are not great.

Tackles - solo/assist

2006 DEN - 14/3

2007 DEN - 34/5

2008 DEN - 17/7

Last year the Broncos finished dead last in defense without Dumervill and they will benefit from his pass rush but his run defense is suspect.

Having said all of that I agree with you that it would make a lot of sense for the Broncos to go for a DT at the top of the draft because they are diffiicult to come by but so are 4-3 DEs who can pressure the QB and play stout run defense.

Right now I would be hard pressed to say that the Broncos had one 4-3 DE who plays the run and pass well so I would say that Bowers is a logical choice is he's there when they pick.

Also Robert Ayers is bigger (Height 6-3 Weight 274 lbs) and he's penciled in as the other starter and it is hoped that the transition will help improve his production. He was drafted in the first round two years ago and has made what can only be described as an unsuccessful transition from down DE to 3-4 OLB because he simply has not produced.

Link to Robert Ayers ESPN player page

--------- SACK

2009 DEN - 0.0

2010 DEN - 1.5

Tackles - solo/assist

2009 DEN - 14/5

2010 DEN - 32/7

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I've tried to put together a new mock draft a couple times but have given up. It's so volatile right now. It might make more sense after the combine.

I could see the Panthers taking A.J. Greene #1. He is the safest pick of the guys available to them. And I don't think they'll take a DE as they really appear sufficient at that spot for now.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... I think the sample size on Simpson is too small to make that final judgment on whether he can be a #1,

I agree so the Bengals don't know if he's a legit #1 WR and it looks like one will available when they pick and I feel Simpson works much more effectively as a #2 WR and they want to walk away from Ocho/TO so it seems like the timing has aligned where A.J. Green makes sense.

I see the trade route as slightly plausible if they don't want Green as someone might be willing to go up and get him.

Its rare that teams move up, even rarer that they move up for WRs and when speaking of the Bengals making first round draft day trades its unheard of so I don't think that is plausable.

I'd like to see what the lunch pail kids can do if given the keys. Knocking 2 back to #4 would be an insult to the hard work he's put becoming a good run blocker (Caldwell came in a lot in those situations late last year even before Ocho and TO were out). Premier pash-rushers are a lot harder to come by than WRs good enough to give you a deep playoff run IMO.

I am not knocking any of those wideouts, I like them but if both Ocho and TO leave it will be felt. I also agree that a pass rusher is more difficult to find on average but A.J. Green isn't an average WR. Also the Bengals found Carlos Dunlap in the second round of last year's draft. Drafted 2010: 2nd Rnd, 54th by CIN And he was incredible down the stretch.In the last 8 games he racked up 9.5 sacks.I'd say that is excellent pass rush and they found him in the second round and last year's draft didn't have as much pass rush talent as this draft does so I think if they are thinking pass rusher that they can find a bargain in the second round just like they did last year.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I've tried to put together a new mock draft a couple times but have given up. It's so volatile right now. It might make more sense after the combine.I could see the Panthers taking A.J. Greene #1. He is the safest pick of the guys available to them. And I don't think they'll take a DE as they really appear sufficient at that spot for now.

It is tough so for right now its more fun and a way to look at the picks in a more strategic way rather than based on what we will know about the players once information is leaked out about their Combine numbers and individual workouts/Wonderlic's/interviews/etc.On these boards their is an undeniable fantasy bias when looking at players like A.J. Green. He will be a fantasy stud but looking at the long history of NFL drafts you will see only 3 wide receivers drafted #1 in NFL history:1996 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC 1984 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska 1964 1 Dave Parks 49ers WR Texas Tech Green may be a sure bet but I don't see him going #1.And you are correct, the Panthers are set at DE with Brown and Charles Johnson. They hae two solid DEs or I would plug Bowers in as the top pick.I feel Cam Newton will climb up the charts and he could be the top pick by the time the draft comes around but for right now I think Fairley is a reasonable speculation.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I've tried to put together a new mock draft a couple times but have given up. It's so volatile right now. It might make more sense after the combine.I could see the Panthers taking A.J. Greene #1. He is the safest pick of the guys available to them. And I don't think they'll take a DE as they really appear sufficient at that spot for now.

It is tough so for right now its more fun and a way to look at the picks in a more strategic way rather than based on what we will know about the players once information is leaked out about their Combine numbers and individual workouts/Wonderlic's/interviews/etc.On these boards their is an undeniable fantasy bias when looking at players like A.J. Green. He will be a fantasy stud but looking at the long history of NFL drafts you will see only 3 wide receivers drafted #1 in NFL history:1996 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC 1984 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska 1964 1 Dave Parks 49ers WR Texas Tech Green may be a sure bet but I don't see him going #1.And you are correct, the Panthers are set at DE with Brown and Charles Johnson. They hae two solid DEs or I would plug Bowers in as the top pick.I feel Cam Newton will climb up the charts and he could be the top pick by the time the draft comes around but for right now I think Fairley is a reasonable speculation.

The Panthers also have Greg Hardy, who turned out to be pretty decent as well after his draft stock fell.Fairley has maturity questions so Dareus could be a consideration too. But taking a defensive tackle #1 overall (unless his last name is Suh) seems like a real stretch to me.

 

[ffchamp1]

More for fun since its mid February, pre-combine, so it is early but not to early to try and speculate and figure out the top ten picks of the draft and get a hanlde on what teams might be thinking.

Here is what I am thinking at this time.

==============

1. Carolina - DT Nick Farley DeQuan Bowers is a bigger need

Reasoning for the pick: Wideouts touch the ball at best ten times per game, infrequent impact and prohibabitive pricetag discredit WR with top pick. The Panthers could go QB, either Newton or Gabbert but its tough for a newly installed NFL HC that already has a young QB like Clausen to change and go in another direction at QB without having the first-hand evaluation of whether or not the young guy can play or not so I can’t see them going QB with the firt pick. They could go with DE Da Quan Bowers but they recently let DE Julius Peppers go and drafted DE Everette Brown. They didn’t want to pay a big salary for a proven DE in his prime so how can they jusitfy more money for an unproven rookie DE? Thier simply isn't a no-brain selection so I default to Bill Parcels Planet Theory that states there are only so many big men who can move and who have the physical ability to dominate at the DT position. Fairley has potential to dominate.

2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers Patrick Paterson even if they resign Champ gives them a dynamic playmaker on ST and a shut down CB for the future

Reasoning: The Broncos are switching back to the 4-3 and will move two 3-4 OLBers to 4-3 DE but neither have the frame of a legit 4-3 DE. Elvis Dumervill is 5'11 and is coming off of surgery and now he’ll have to play up on the LOS all of the time so I think he’ll wear down. At the other DE position they have buster OLB/DE Robert Ayers moving up and at best he’s a weak link on the defense. I think the Broncos will re-sign Cham Bailey so that discounts Pat Peterson. Its difficult to find top flight 4-3 DEs who can both rush the passer and play stout run defense. This class of DEs has guys who can rush the passer but few who can plug the run and pressure the QB but Bowers can do it all.

3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Paterson Farley or Dareus here, with Farley being the selection

Reasoning: The Bills aren’t in dire need at WR or Green would be a possibility here. I can envisage Cam Newton throwing thru gusts of wind and snow and ice in December and terrorizing opponents for the next decade but the Bills play in a division with Derrelle Revis and I think they see the same type of shut-down corner in Paterson and will go with the proven talent at an area of need.

4. Cincinnati - WR A.J. Green I see the need being WR but they also need a DE opposite Dunlap as well as a CB is they lose Joseph. If either Bowers or Paterson fall, they go here. If not, it is to high for Prince so Cam Newton will be my pick

Reasoning: Green may be the most talented player in this draft. Its time to move on from Ocho and TO. Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, and Cadwell are all good wide receivers but none can be said to be legit #1 wideouts like Ocho or TO. For the Bengals to divorce themselves from the terrible duo and move on they need a talent like Green to slam the door. An argument can be made for Newton if the Bengals dish Carson Palmer and it is possible that a team like Minnesota could offer their first round pick for Palmer. If something like that happens then Newton goes off the board here but the Bengals never seem to make trades. It seems like they won’t trade a problem guy like Chad Johnson when his value is high and keep them so I don’t think the Brown family will let Carson go unless they get a great offer and they don’t seem capable of making those types of deals so Green appears the logical selection.

5. Arizona - LB Von Miller Great pick, see this happening as they will sign a QB

Reasoning: I think the Cards will end up liking Newton but I can see them hesitant to pull the trigger. I don't think they are sold on Gabbert but many teams are interested in Newton so they consider trading down but don't want to miss out on Miller unless they get a lot in return. I think they will show a great interest in both QBs and that fake will work and the phone will ring off the hook when they are on the clock but the Cardinals will ask for a bit too much in return for moving down so in the end will go with their default pick of Miller. Why Miller? Joey Porter is ancient and they need pass rushing OLBers and that is Von Miller.

6. **trade** Cleveland trades down with Washington**Washington - QB Cam Newton Trades are hard to predict so I won't. I have CLE selecting AJ Green here

Reasoning for the trade: The Cards stoked the fires of teams wanting to trade up for Newton and the Browns benefit as Newton falls and Cleveland isn't asking Arizona’s exorbitant price to move down. The top guys that the Browns wanted are both off the board, Bowers and Green, so they can move down and pick someone who they probably would take at 6 but get them cheaper and pick up an extra pick. Mike Shannahan wants to move on from McNabb and in the past he has moved up in the first round of the draft to get a QB, Jay Cutler. Shanny knows San Fran would take Cam if he didn’t move up with Cleveland and the price is reasonable so they are willing to move up for a 2nd rounder this year instead of what the Cards would ask, next year’s 1st round pick, so Shannahan does the internal calculas and makes decides its his best shot to land a franchise QB so he pulls the trigger and makes the deal.

Reasoning for the pick: The Skins need a QB and Newton could be a great one especially with a QB guru like Shannahan coaching him up.

7. San Francisco - QB Blaine Gabbert DT Marcel Dareus is the pick, they will not take another spread QB

Reasoning for the pick: The Niners would have preferred Newton and they simply cannot go on with only having Alex Smith as their only quarterback option. They have time to develop a rookie with Smith but they need someone in the bullpen heating up for the eventual hook.

8. Tennessee - DE/DT Marcell Dereus I am not a Gabbert fan but it is their biggest need. Look for them to take Cameron Jordan from Cal who will shoot up the charts at the combine

Reasoning: The Titans miss on the QBs and none of the other top talents slide so go they default to the Planet Theory and take the best of the big men left on the board.

9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara Great fit

Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.

10. **trade** Cleveland w/Washington - DE Robert Quinn To high for Quinn but may be to high for Julio Jones too...I pick Jones here for WAS

Reasoning: The Browns are switching to a 4-3 defense so although J.J. Watt is rated higher on nearly all draft boards at this time he’s a five-tech 3-4 DE. The Browns could go with WR Julio Jones or Watt or others but I think they will go with Quinn due to superior pass rush ability (Watt had only 3.5 sacks last year) and because he’s a pure 4-3 DE. The Browns need pass rushers on the line and they lack them at this juncture so I think if they trade down that they would be happy to take a gamble on Quinn if they picked up an extra second rounder to offset the risk.

==========

Thoughts?

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Mayock is starting to beat the drum about Peterson's size. Said he could become a pro bowl safety. Safety is not going to go in the top 5 of the draft.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I've tried to put together a new mock draft a couple times but have given up. It's so volatile right now. It might make more sense after the combine.I could see the Panthers taking A.J. Greene #1. He is the safest pick of the guys available to them. And I don't think they'll take a DE as they really appear sufficient at that spot for now.

It is tough so for right now its more fun and a way to look at the picks in a more strategic way rather than based on what we will know about the players once information is leaked out about their Combine numbers and individual workouts/Wonderlic's/interviews/etc.On these boards their is an undeniable fantasy bias when looking at players like A.J. Green. He will be a fantasy stud but looking at the long history of NFL drafts you will see only 3 wide receivers drafted #1 in NFL history:1996 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC 1984 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska 1964 1 Dave Parks 49ers WR Texas Tech Green may be a sure bet but I don't see him going #1.And you are correct, the Panthers are set at DE with Brown and Charles Johnson. They hae two solid DEs or I would plug Bowers in as the top pick.I feel Cam Newton will climb up the charts and he could be the top pick by the time the draft comes around but for right now I think Fairley is a reasonable speculation.

I think #4 pick at WR and I see the mighty Peter Warrick.-QG

 

[domvin]

I know I've seen Green to the Bengals everywhere, but I don't think they are going to go that way in round 1, I really don't.

I'd just as soon see them trade down and keep the guys that have worked their way up like Simpson and Caldwell in the starting spots.

-QG

I would imagine every team in the top seven/eight would love to trade down but its prohibative in the top five picks especially if a team moves up for a QB but the majority of moves up into the top five are for QBs since they have the highest possible return.The problem I see with the Bengals is they don't have a history of making trades in the draft. Some front offices have a reputation for making draft day trades. The only trade I proposed took into account how that deal could play out and both Shannahan and Heckert, the GM for the Browns, have a history of making draft day trades and Shanny made a very similiar deal in the first round when he moved up only two places to take Cutler so this seems reasonable.

Per A.J. Green. I like what I saw of Shipley but he's a slot WR as is Caldwell. I think Simpson would work better as a #2 WR to get open. He feasted off of second tier coverage at the end of last year but I think it would be a different story if he had to face the #1 DB or be matched against double coverage each week. If Ocho and TO leave the Nati they'll need a legit #1 WR to free up Jerome Simpson and Green looks like a sure bet.

I think its a good pick.

I think Ocho and TO were both hurt those last two games. Simpson very well could have drawn the second cb, but he had success, what, 3 games in a row?Green is BPA no doubt. But the bengals will most likely draft for need, and I can see they either take Fairley or Von Miller. They need another stout body at DT, and Fairley sohuld could be dominant. They weren't scared off by the Andre Smith negativity, so the fact of being a one year wonder should not discourage them.

On Miller, they could move Rey to the middle, and have rivers and Miller flank him. Bow tie aint gonna last forever.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Mayock is starting to beat the drum about Peterson's size. Said he could become a pro bowl safety. Safety is not going to go in the top 5 of the draft.

Sean Taylor did in 2004.Laron Landry went 6th in 2007 and in 2006 you had Michael Huff and Donte Whitner at 7 & 8 respectively.Eric Turner went #2 way back in '91.It wouldn't be unprecedented for Peterson to go top 5 as a safety.

 

[BigDave]

9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara

Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.

What's your source on Prince being the guy Dallas wanted all along?

Personally I see Jerry trading back a few spaces, maybe to 12th or 13th, and picking up another pick.

 

[healthpellets]

Mayock is starting to beat the drum about Peterson's size. Said he could become a pro bowl safety. Safety is not going to go in the top 5 of the draft.

um, eric berry did. last year even.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Mayock is starting to beat the drum about Peterson's size. Said he could become a pro bowl safety. Safety is not going to go in the top 5 of the draft.

Sean Taylor did in 2004.Laron Landry went 6th in 2007 and in 2006 you had Michael Huff and Donte Whitner at 7 & 8 respectively.Eric Turner went #2 way back in '91.It wouldn't be unprecedented for Peterson to go top 5 as a safety.

You guys are right. It has happened. My mistake.However, Peterson is ranked in the top 5 based on being a cover corner, I can't imagine his value being as high if he's deemed a safety now. I could be wrong though.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Mayock is starting to beat the drum about Peterson's size. Said he could become a pro bowl safety. Safety is not going to go in the top 5 of the draft.

Sean Taylor did in 2004.Laron Landry went 6th in 2007 and in 2006 you had Michael Huff and Donte Whitner at 7 & 8 respectively.Eric Turner went #2 way back in '91.It wouldn't be unprecedented for Peterson to go top 5 as a safety.

You guys are right. It has happened. My mistake.However, Peterson is ranked in the top 5 based on being a cover corner, I can't imagine his value being as high if he's deemed a safety now. I could be wrong though.

No harm done. No offense meant.Peterson is just a rare athlete for his size, which also makes him a bit of the proverbial "tweener" when it comes to a position. He's reportedly a bit "stiff" in the hips, which is problematic for a corner, but given his size and speed he'd have the ability to make up any ground he lost in transition.

 

[Ridgelake]

9. Dallas - CB Pince AkumaraReasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.What's your source on Prince being the guy Dallas wanted all along? Personally I see Jerry trading back a few spaces, maybe to 12th or 13th, and picking up another pick.

Despite Mel Kiper putting him here, I can tell you flat out that Dallas is not drafting Prince at 9. First and foremost, he doesnt have the top end speed to be an elite corner. He's Samare Rolle v2.0. He'll make a fine safety in time or a decent CB. But he's not an elite corner and you don't spend #9 overall on an average corner.Second, CB is NOT the area of biggest need on the team. Yes, their pass defense was horrible last year. But they do have several young talented CBs already. There are far greater holes on the roster. OL, DE, S being chief among them.For folks who have really studied the Boys this offseason, it would be a big surprise if they did not go OT or DE in the first round. At that even includes a not unlikely trade down.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

9. Dallas - CB Pince AkumaraReasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.What's your source on Prince being the guy Dallas wanted all along? Personally I see Jerry trading back a few spaces, maybe to 12th or 13th, and picking up another pick.

Despite Mel Kiper putting him here, I can tell you flat out that Dallas is not drafting Prince at 9. First and foremost, he doesnt have the top end speed to be an elite corner. He's Samare Rolle v2.0. He'll make a fine safety in time or a decent CB. But he's not an elite corner and you don't spend #9 overall on an average corner.Second, CB is NOT the area of biggest need on the team. Yes, their pass defense was horrible last year. But they do have several young talented CBs already. There are far greater holes on the roster. OL, DE, S being chief among them.For folks who have really studied the Boys this offseason, it would be a big surprise if they did not go OT or DE in the first round. At that even includes a not unlikely trade down.

I read a stat along the lines of the Cowboys have only drafted two linemen in the first round since 1965. Or something like that.

 

[Ridgelake]

9. Dallas - CB Pince AkumaraReasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.What's your source on Prince being the guy Dallas wanted all along? Personally I see Jerry trading back a few spaces, maybe to 12th or 13th, and picking up another pick.

Despite Mel Kiper putting him here, I can tell you flat out that Dallas is not drafting Prince at 9. First and foremost, he doesnt have the top end speed to be an elite corner. He's Samare Rolle v2.0. He'll make a fine safety in time or a decent CB. But he's not an elite corner and you don't spend #9 overall on an average corner.Second, CB is NOT the area of biggest need on the team. Yes, their pass defense was horrible last year. But they do have several young talented CBs already. There are far greater holes on the roster. OL, DE, S being chief among them.For folks who have really studied the Boys this offseason, it would be a big surprise if they did not go OT or DE in the first round. At that even includes a not unlikely trade down.

I read a stat along the lines of the Cowboys have only drafted two linemen in the first round since 1965. Or something like that.

It has been a long time since they did go OL in round 1. It had been a long time prior to last year and Dez Bryant that they drafted a WR in round 1 (Alvin Harper in the early Jerry years). Dallas has drafted a number of OL in the early 2nd over the years.But some of the better educated boards are honing in more and more on Tyron Smith at #9. These boards have been pretty good over the years at figuring out where the team is going to go. No one is questioning Tyron's athletic ability, only his size. And when he came in at 307 recently, questions of his size were answered. If he puts up a good combine as is expected, he'll be mentioned in the top 10.The team desperately needs a RT. And its looking more and more like the top 6 to 8 OTs will be gone by pick 40 (Dallas' 2nd rounder). In contrast, depth at other problem spots DE, CB, S, OG is expected to be there at 40 and beyond. The latest thinking has Dallas taking the best OT in this draft at 9 and then addressing other need areas later that should not be so badly picked over talent wise. Essentially, the OT they can get at 40 won't be near the same quality as the DE, CB, S, or G they can get at 40. The OTs at 40 become question marks. Not so for other spots.If Dallas can't move down from 9, its looking more and more like Tyron Smith.Edit: If you're still concerned about Dallas' history of taking an OL in round 1, consider last year. Its been somewhat widely reported that Dallas had planned to move up to get 1 of 4 players. Earl Thomas, Mike Iupati, Pouncey, and Dez. The frist three were gone by the teens. The cost to move up to get Dez became reasonable when he fell to the mid 20s. But if it had been Iupati or Pouncey falling, its firmly believed Dallas would have made the same move up to get them.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

It has been a long time since they did go OL in round 1. It had been a long time prior to last year and Dez Bryant that they drafted a WR in round 1 (Alvin Harper in the early Jerry years). Dallas has drafted a number of OL in the early 2nd over the years.But some of the better educated boards are honing in more and more on Tyron Smith at #9. These boards have been pretty good over the years at figuring out where the team is going to go. No one is questioning Tyron's athletic ability, only his size. And when he came in at 307 recently, questions of his size were answered. If he puts up a good combine as is expected, he'll be mentioned in the top 10.The team desperately needs a RT. And its looking more and more like the top 6 to 8 OTs will be gone by pick 40 (Dallas' 2nd rounder). In contrast, depth at other problem spots DE, CB, S, OG is expected to be there at 40 and beyond. The latest thinking has Dallas taking the best OT in this draft at 9 and then addressing other need areas later that should not be so badly picked over talent wise. Essentially, the OT they can get at 40 won't be near the same quality as the DE, CB, S, or G they can get at 40. The OTs at 40 become question marks. Not so for other spots.If Dallas can't move down from 9, its looking more and more like Tyron Smith.

When did Smith weigh in that heavy? I was kind of hoping the Vikes might take him (or Solder) at their spot.

 

[Ridgelake]

When did Smith weigh in that heavy? I was kind of hoping the Vikes might take him (or Solder) at their spot.

Wes Bunting reported it this week. We'll get confirmation at the Combine.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

When did Smith weigh in that heavy? I was kind of hoping the Vikes might take him (or Solder) at their spot.

Wes Bunting reported it this week. We'll get confirmation at the Combine.

I still think the similarities between Smith and the prior year's USC OT, Charles Brown are eery. Brown was an extremely athletic OT who got pretty popular with draft geeks but was light (about 290). I believe he showed up to the Combine at just over 300 and got some hype because of it. Brown was then drafted at the bottom of the 2nd round by NO.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara

Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.

What's your source on Prince being the guy Dallas wanted all along?

Personally I see Jerry trading back a few spaces, maybe to 12th or 13th, and picking up another pick.

Despite Mel Kiper putting him here, I can tell you flat out that Dallas is not drafting Prince at 9. First and foremost, he doesnt have the top end speed to be an elite corner. He's Samare Rolle v2.0. He'll make a fine safety in time or a decent CB. But he's not an elite corner and you don't spend #9 overall on an average corner.Second, CB is NOT the area of biggest need on the team. Yes, their pass defense was horrible last year. But they do have several young talented CBs already. There are far greater holes on the roster. OL, DE, S being chief among them.

For folks who have really studied the Boys this offseason, it would be a big surprise if they did not go OT or DE in the first round. At that even includes a not unlikely trade down.

Their is no definitive a source on who Dallas will or won't take.As far as Akumara being the guy they want I don't have a definitive source but then again I don' see a definitive source where Dallas will be trading down or that Akumara isn't the guy they will take but I applaud any viewpoint and especially when someone comes forth with a valid take backed by their reasoning.

On the take that Dallas wants/needs an OT and that the pass defense was poor last year. True and true.

The take on abilties is open for debate.

Last year the top corner was Joe Haden. His forty time was below par but he ended up on the all-rookie squad.

The Cowboys new defensive coordinator is Rob Ryan.

Rob Ryan was the DC for the Cleveland Browns last year.

The Cleveland Brownss selected CB Joe Haden in the first round.

Rob Ryan's bro is Rex Ryan the HC of the Jets.

Rex Ryan has the top lockdown CB in the league, Darrelle Revis.

A top lockdown corner allows Rob Ryan's aggressive defense to work because he loves to play aggressive defense and blitz which requires corners who can cover.

If you feel that Akumara can't fit in Rob Ryan's D then that is fine but as of right now I don't know for certain that he doesn't fit in a Rob Ryan defense so until proven different I see Price Akumara as a very good fit especially in a division with Hakeem Nicks and DeSeaon Jackson and other top receiver talent that would require a less aggressive defensive gameplan that doesn't fit the style that Rob Ryan wants to play.

For a Rob Ryan defense to work he needs corners.

LINK to hallmarks of a Rob Ryan defense

...corners withstand a lot of man-to-man coverage, or will he have to go with a zone/robber scheme.

In Oakland, he had Nnamdi Asomugha, so he could run man-to-man, or rotate his coverage into helping the other side. If he doesn't think Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman can lockdown in a man-to-man scheme, and there's ample evidence that they struggle with that, he could run a Man Under/2-Deep concept with the free safety playing a 'robber' position. This site about the '46' defense talks specifically about the Ryan's running a Man Under/2-Deep scheme and how the 'robber' concept plays into it.

... "I like our corners here with Cleveland. In Oakland [man-to-man] was our style of play. It was how the team was drafted, to play with a middle-field safety.

LINK story from yesterday on Ryan's defense

Rob Ryan adding swagger to Dallas' declining defense

Posted 2/17/2011 11:59 PM ET

...He has some solid building blocks in outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (FSY), who led the NFL in sacks, and nose tackle Jay Ratliff (FSY). Ryan squelched any notion of Ratliff moving from the middle of the line to the outside.

He also praised veteran inside linebackers Bradie James (FSY) and Keith Brooking (FSY), said he's excited about young inside linebacker Sean Lee (FSY), and said outside linebacker Anthony Spencer (FSY) "is going to be tremendous in our system, I can tell you that for sure." Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins (FSY) were considered to have regressed last year instead of building on solid 2009 seasons.

When listing building blocks that Rob Ryan has on his defense the only mention of defensive backs is an uncomplimentary comment on cornerback Mike Jenkins regression.

I can easily see Prince Akumara as the pick by Dallas right now because I can see Rob Ryan making a good case for taking him.

 

[Ridgelake]

9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara

Reasoning: Dallas gets the guy that they wanted all along without any drama.

What's your source on Prince being the guy Dallas wanted all along?

Personally I see Jerry trading back a few spaces, maybe to 12th or 13th, and picking up another pick.

Despite Mel Kiper putting him here, I can tell you flat out that Dallas is not drafting Prince at 9. First and foremost, he doesnt have the top end speed to be an elite corner. He's Samare Rolle v2.0. He'll make a fine safety in time or a decent CB. But he's not an elite corner and you don't spend #9 overall on an average corner.Second, CB is NOT the area of biggest need on the team. Yes, their pass defense was horrible last year. But they do have several young talented CBs already. There are far greater holes on the roster. OL, DE, S being chief among them.

For folks who have really studied the Boys this offseason, it would be a big surprise if they did not go OT or DE in the first round. At that even includes a not unlikely trade down.

Their is no definitive a source on who Dallas will or won't take.As far as Akumara being the guy they want I don't have a definitive source but then again I don' see a definitive source where Dallas will be trading down or that Akumara isn't the guy they will take but I applaud any viewpoint and especially when someone comes forth with a valid take backed by their reasoning.

On the take that Dallas wants/needs an OT and that the pass defense was poor last year. True and true.

The take on abilties is open for debate.

Last year the top corner was Joe Haden. His forty time was below par but he ended up on the all-rookie squad.

The Cowboys new defensive coordinator is Rob Ryan.

Rob Ryan was the DC for the Cleveland Browns last year.

The Cleveland Brownss selected CB Joe Haden in the first round.

Rob Ryan's bro is Rex Ryan the HC of the Jets.

Rex Ryan has the top lockdown CB in the league, Darrelle Revis.

A top lockdown corner allows Rob Ryan's aggressive defense to work because he loves to play aggressive defense and blitz which requires corners who can cover.

If you feel that Akumara can't fit in Rob Ryan's D then that is fine but as of right now I don't know for certain that he doesn't fit in a Rob Ryan defense so until proven different I see Price Akumara as a very good fit especially in a division with Hakeem Nicks and DeSeaon Jackson and other top receiver talent that would require a less aggressive defensive gameplan that doesn't fit the style that Rob Ryan wants to play.

For a Rob Ryan defense to work he needs corners.

LINK to hallmarks of a Rob Ryan defense

...corners withstand a lot of man-to-man coverage, or will he have to go with a zone/robber scheme.

In Oakland, he had Nnamdi Asomugha, so he could run man-to-man, or rotate his coverage into helping the other side. If he doesn't think Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman can lockdown in a man-to-man scheme, and there's ample evidence that they struggle with that, he could run a Man Under/2-Deep concept with the free safety playing a 'robber' position. This site about the '46' defense talks specifically about the Ryan's running a Man Under/2-Deep scheme and how the 'robber' concept plays into it.

... "I like our corners here with Cleveland. In Oakland [man-to-man] was our style of play. It was how the team was drafted, to play with a middle-field safety.

LINK story from yesterday on Ryan's defense

Rob Ryan adding swagger to Dallas' declining defense

Posted 2/17/2011 11:59 PM ET

...He has some solid building blocks in outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (FSY), who led the NFL in sacks, and nose tackle Jay Ratliff (FSY). Ryan squelched any notion of Ratliff moving from the middle of the line to the outside.

He also praised veteran inside linebackers Bradie James (FSY) and Keith Brooking (FSY), said he's excited about young inside linebacker Sean Lee (FSY), and said outside linebacker Anthony Spencer (FSY) "is going to be tremendous in our system, I can tell you that for sure." Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins (FSY) were considered to have regressed last year instead of building on solid 2009 seasons.

When listing building blocks that Rob Ryan has on his defense the only mention of defensive backs is an uncomplimentary comment on cornerback Mike Jenkins regression.

I can easily see Prince Akumara as the pick by Dallas right now because I can see Rob Ryan making a good case for taking him.

Bracie, you've done some homework and I applaud you for it. Many who post here do not. I'll add a small discourse on why CB is not likely the pick at 9.

In 2009, the Dallas D was #2 in the NFL in points allowed. In 2010, 10 of 11 starters returned. The top corners were Jenkins, Newman, and Scandrick. Jenkins and Newman made the pro bowl. In 2010, Newman played much of the year hurt. The metrics for both he and jenkins were very poor last year. What changed? The 1 starting spot that changed was Ken Hamlin was let go at free safety and converted corner Alan Ball brought in. Hamlin lacked many things but a couple things that he did do very well was be the QB of the defense and not get beat deep. He got everyone lined up and often communicated the proper reads and calls based on what the offense was doing. Ball, while much faster and athletic than Hamlin, struggled to read offenses. Many deep balls were allowed. So is the problem that the CBs are bad or that they didnt get the help they needed to be effective? They proved very effective in 09. Why can't they be effective in 11? You can argue age decline for Newman. But Scandrick is quite capable. And you've got another good developing young corner in Bryan McCann.

So is safety or CB the big need for the Dallas secondary?

Or maybe pass rush? Sacks and QB pressures went way down in 2010 versus 2009. Why? Thats a tough question to answer. Strong arguments can be made that Wade's defenses got very predictable. It was obvious where the rush was coming from. Or maybe they only have 3 guys who can rush the passer, Ware, Ratliff and Spencer. And oh, of the top 4 DEs from last year, only 1 is under contract. Maybe a DE who can rush the passer might fill a hole? Cameron Jordan perhaps?

Now for OL. Dallas has not been able to run the offense that Garrett wants since 07 or 08 because he does not trust the line to hold. All those explosive plays with Romo hitting TO, Glenn, etc down the field? Well that Norv Turner, Ernie Zampese, Don Coryell offense that is predicated upon passing downfield and a strong run game requires a solid OLine. When you can't protect the QB, you cant run the passing game except short dump offs or max protects. And thats what the team had to resort to last year. The oline could not pass protect long enough to run the offense. I'm sure Garrett was frustrated to no end to not be able to trust his oline to pass block long enough to make the deep throws his offense wants to do. So who's in that OL? 4 guys over 30. Columbo is a warrior at RT, but his knee is gone. His blocking metrics were horrible last year. Bigg Davis can't move any more. Gurode is still functional at center. Kosier, when he's not hurt, really showed his age last year. And Doug Free at LT, a guy who is technically a FA but should be resigned. There is no capable backup at tackle.

Unless and until they get at least 2 if not 3 new starters at OL, Garrett won't be able to run the offense he wants.

You make the argument that Ryan wants a shiny toy for a CB. Ok, I don't disagree. I'm sure he would. But when you really study the situation, is that the biggest need for this team? Is it 2nd or even 3rd biggest? Is Ryan's sway to get a new toy greater than Garrett's need for functionality? Or to fill a very large hole at DE?

Is Prince so much of a better prospect than Tyron Smith and Cam Jordan that his value over rides need?

I think you know the answer to these questions if you've read what I've had to say.

 

[Getinthemix]

... I think the sample size on Simpson is too small to make that final judgment on whether he can be a #1,

I agree so the Bengals don't know if he's a legit #1 WR and it looks like one will available when they pick and I feel Simpson works much more effectively as a #2 WR and they want to walk away from Ocho/TO so it seems like the timing has aligned where A.J. Green makes sense.

I see the trade route as slightly plausible if they don't want Green as someone might be willing to go up and get him.

Its rare that teams move up, even rarer that they move up for WRs and when speaking of the Bengals making first round draft day trades its unheard of so I don't think that is plausable.

I'd like to see what the lunch pail kids can do if given the keys. Knocking 2 back to #4 would be an insult to the hard work he's put becoming a good run blocker (Caldwell came in a lot in those situations late last year even before Ocho and TO were out). Premier pash-rushers are a lot harder to come by than WRs good enough to give you a deep playoff run IMO.

I am not knocking any of those wideouts, I like them but if both Ocho and TO leave it will be felt. I also agree that a pass rusher is more difficult to find on average but A.J. Green isn't an average WR. Also the Bengals found Carlos Dunlap in the second round of last year's draft. Drafted 2010: 2nd Rnd, 54th by CIN And he was incredible down the stretch.In the last 8 games he racked up 9.5 sacks.I'd say that is excellent pass rush and they found him in the second round and last year's draft didn't have as much pass rush talent as this draft does so I think if they are thinking pass rusher that they can find a bargain in the second round just like they did last year.

The only reason the Bengals were able to get Dunlap in the 2nd last year was due to off field concerns.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... In 2009, the Dallas D was #2 in the NFL in points allowed. In 2010, 10 of 11 starters returned. The top corners were Jenkins, Newman, and Scandrick. Jenkins and Newman made the pro bowl. In 2010, Newman played much of the year hurt. The metrics for both he and jenkins were very poor last year. What changed? The 1 starting spot that changed was Ken Hamlin was let go at free safety and converted corner Alan Ball brought in. Hamlin lacked many things but a couple things that he did do very well was be the QB of the defense and not get beat deep. He got everyone lined up and often communicated the proper reads and calls based on what the offense was doing. Ball, while much faster and athletic than Hamlin, struggled to read offenses. Many deep balls were allowed. So is the problem that the CBs are bad or that they didnt get the help they needed to be effective? They proved very effective in 09. Why can't they be effective in 11? You can argue age decline for Newman. But Scandrick is quite capable. And you've got another good developing young corner in Bryan McCann.

So is safety or CB the big need for the Dallas secondary?

I would have to clarity why I feel CB is a valid option by asking which safety is responsible for allowing Nnamdi Asomugha to play effective man-to-man coverage which by definition means he's playing without the help of a cover safety. The same would be asked of Darrelle Revis and soon the same will be asked of Joe Haden. The point is that an aggressive Rob/Rex Ryan defense is built on one key pivot position, a shut down cornerback to allow a middle-field safety to rotate to the 'other corner's side' and free up a safety to play up in the box or to blitz."I like our corners here with Cleveland. In Oakland [man-to-man] was our style of play. It was how the team was drafted, to play with a middle-field safety"--Dallas DC Rob Ryan

This is what Ryan 'prefers' to play to run his defense. I feel the need to emphasize the heart of the matter when talking about Rob Ryan HIS DEFENSE. Ryan is an in-yo-face aggressive guy who loves an aggressive D but he can run any type of defense and he has/does but his prefered style of aggressive D requires a shut down corner. My point is not suttle but I don't feel I made how important a shut-down corner who can also seal the edge and play stout run defense is for a Rob Ryan defense. You know the Boys but you have to learn Rob Ryan and I think you probably have picked up hints but for him to really show his aggressive side he needs a corner, it is a key pivot position for him to run his defense the way he wants.

Or maybe pass rush? Sacks and QB pressures went way down in 2010 versus 2009. Why? Thats a tough question to answer. Strong arguments can be made that Wade's defenses got very predictable. It was obvious where the rush was coming from. Or maybe they only have 3 guys who can rush the passer, Ware, Ratliff and Spencer. And oh, of the top 4 DEs from last year, only 1 is under contract. Maybe a DE who can rush the passer might fill a hole? Cameron Jordan perhaps?

The Cowboys already have the best pass rusher in the league with DeMarcus Ware and I love Anthony Spencer and so does Rob Ryan. He specifically mentioned that he will get the most out of him when he evaluated the defense.'He also praised veteran inside linebackers Bradie James (FSY) and Keith Brooking (FSY), said he's excited about young inside linebacker Sean Lee (FSY), and said outside linebacker Anthony Spencer (FSY) "is going to be tremendous in our system, I can tell you that for sure."

Why would he say that about Spencer? Its because he will be tremendous in Ryan's system. Why will Spence be tremendous? Because Ryan is going to help his pass rush by getting a cover corner. The Boys already have pass rushers in Ware and Specner and in a 3-4 D the OLBers are the pass rushers not the D-Lineman so I don't agree that they will be looking at the D-Line for any sort of pass rush and I'd ask how many 3-4 D-Linemen are top pass rushers? Who has had the most sacks out of 3-4 D-lineman over the last decade or so and what was his best year? The all-decade team for the first ten years of this meillenium was announced and Aarron Smith of the Steelers was the guy with the most votes and he is considered the best 'pure' 3-4 DE probably in NFL history, his best year he had 8 sacks. He's the best 3-4 DE in NFL history and he only had 8 sacks in his best year so I don't think that Dallas would be looking DL for their pass rush. Ryan makes it clear that he will get more sacks out of Anthony Spencer so take it to the bank he will get pass rush from Spencer.

Now for OL. Dallas has not been able to run the offense that Garrett wants since 07 or 08 because he does not trust the line to hold. All those explosive plays with Romo hitting TO, Glenn, etc down the field? Well that Norv Turner, Ernie Zampese, Don Coryell offense that is predicated upon passing downfield and a strong run game requires a solid OLine. When you can't protect the QB, you cant run the passing game except short dump offs or max protects. And thats what the team had to resort to last year. The oline could not pass protect long enough to run the offense. I'm sure Garrett was frustrated to no end to not be able to trust his oline to pass block long enough to make the deep throws his offense wants to do. So who's in that OL? 4 guys over 30. Columbo is a warrior at RT, but his knee is gone. His blocking metrics were horrible last year. Bigg Davis can't move any more. Gurode is still functional at center. Kosier, when he's not hurt, really showed his age last year. And Doug Free at LT, a guy who is technically a FA but should be resigned. There is no capable backup at tackle.

Unless and until they get at least 2 if not 3 new starters at OL, Garrett won't be able to run the offense he wants.

I didn't want to gloss over your point and you make a case for taking OL and I've made my case for why a corner is a logical pick.

You make the argument that Ryan wants a shiny toy for a CB. Ok, I don't disagree. I'm sure he would. But when you really study the situation, is that the biggest need for this team? Is it 2nd or even 3rd biggest? Is Ryan's sway to get a new toy greater than Garrett's need for functionality? Or to fill a very large hole at DE?

Is Prince so much of a better prospect than Tyron Smith and Cam Jordan that his value over rides need?

I think you know the answer to these questions if you've read what I've had to say.

Well I know what you think and you know what I think and we both made good cases. I think if Ryan makes his case that Akumara will be the pick but I won't be concerned if he's not. My original post was an early mock and I know it will most likely turn out very different so I was looking for strategic reasoning for the top ten picks and you make an excellent case for Dallas going OL. We'll have more information as things progress but you make a very good case.

 

[eakfootball]

Quinn is a better player than Bowers. I dont think he lasts to 10

 

[two_dollars]

Newton is Jamarcuspart 2. Whoever takes him is hurting their franchise for years.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Quinn is a better player than Bowers. I dont think he lasts to 10

If you look at the tape I think Quinn shows a better pass rush but he gets walked out of many run plays and is caught out of position on others and he simply isn't as stout in run defense as Bowers is.I think its easy to get jazzed about his pass rush potential and I think he is a better pass rusher than Bowers but Bowers is head and shoulders better than Quinn on run defense IMHO and Bowers can rush the passer so for a 4-3 DE top-ten pick if you are the GM and you are responsible for making the pick that will cost your owner tens of millions of dollars and the pick that will seal your reputation and that an entire coaching staff and fan base will be betting on, do you pick a guy who is a good pass rusher but who might open up a hole on one side of your defense or take a guy who will clamp down one side of your D-Line and set up second and third and long pass situations to allow for a more aggressive pass rush package to be run?I agree that Quinn is the better pass rusher but I don't agree at all that he's the better player because I see a weakness in his run defnse and I see strength in Bowers run defense.Quinn could go earlier in the draft based on workouts but I don't think he's the better player from what I've seen. Jes my opinion.

 

[Ridgelake]

Bracie, we have a good dialogue going here. :thumbsup:

I tell you what. I'll give you a corner for Dallas. At pick 40. And a home state guy at that. Aaron WIlliams from Texas. He's got the size and athleticism to become the shut down corner you're looking for. That Ryan is looking for. He's a very viable candidate at 40 and a not unlikely draft pick for Dallas.

This is why I mentioned in my first post in this thread that there are viable players at 40. But not one at OT that can be relied upon. This is what the thinking is moving towards on Cowboy boards. The OT needs to be filled at 9. The drop off in talent at 40 is too extreme for that spot. In contrast, the expected drop off in talent at CB, DE, G, and S is not as severe. You can get a viable CB at 40. Questionable to get one at 9.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Bracie, we have a good dialogue going here. :thumbsup:I tell you what. I'll give you a corner for Dallas. At pick 40. And a home state guy at that. Aaron WIlliams from Texas. He's got the size and athleticism to become the shut down corner you're looking for. That Ryan is looking for. He's a very viable candidate at 40 and a not unlikely draft pick for Dallas.This is why I mentioned in my first post in this thread that there are viable players at 40. But not one at OT that can be relied upon. This is what the thinking is moving towards on Cowboy boards. The OT needs to be filled at 9. The drop off in talent at 40 is too extreme for that spot. In contrast, the expected drop off in talent at CB, DE, G, and S is not as severe. You can get a viable CB at 40. Questionable to get one at 9.

I would agree with that if I felt that getting the type of shut down corner would be a statistically sound strategy to wait until pick #40 but their is little evidence that is a good statistical strategy. It is extremely difficult to find the sort of shut down CB that I know Rob Ryan wants/needs to run his defense. Its a totally different defensive strategy than a less aggressive defensive coverage Wade Phillips type of defense. It requires a rare type of cover corner.I am not taking a thing away from your view.I think you make a good case and I think I make a good nuff case because I think I understand what Ryan wants and needs and I don't think he can find his guy later.

 

[Ridgelake]

Bracie, we have a good dialogue going here. :thumbsup:I tell you what. I'll give you a corner for Dallas. At pick 40. And a home state guy at that. Aaron WIlliams from Texas. He's got the size and athleticism to become the shut down corner you're looking for. That Ryan is looking for. He's a very viable candidate at 40 and a not unlikely draft pick for Dallas.This is why I mentioned in my first post in this thread that there are viable players at 40. But not one at OT that can be relied upon. This is what the thinking is moving towards on Cowboy boards. The OT needs to be filled at 9. The drop off in talent at 40 is too extreme for that spot. In contrast, the expected drop off in talent at CB, DE, G, and S is not as severe. You can get a viable CB at 40. Questionable to get one at 9.

I would agree with that if I felt that getting the type of shut down corner would be a statistically sound strategy to wait until pick #40 but their is little evidence that is a good statistical strategy. It is extremely difficult to find the sort of shut down CB that I know Rob Ryan wants/needs to run his defense. Its a totally different defensive strategy than a less aggressive defensive coverage Wade Phillips type of defense. It requires a rare type of cover corner.I am not taking a thing away from your view.I think you make a good case and I think I make a good nuff case because I think I understand what Ryan wants and needs and I don't think he can find his guy later.

Agreed that odds at 40 are less than at 9. A couple of counterpoints, however.First, I just don't think Amukamara has the elite shut down skills. Good player, yes. But I'm not seeing the elite shut down skills. The guy available who might is the kid from Miami. He's more of a man-to-man cover corner.Second, the shut down corner may be on the roster already. Jenkins showed that ability in 09. He took people out of the game that year. Had metrics that ranked among the true elites. Its such a contrast to what happened last year. But if Ryan's as good as he says he is, he'll get that 09 Jenkins back on the field. He's still young.Not sure how much more we can beat this horse. I respect your thoughts on Ryan and what he wants. I'm not saying that CB isnt a target position. I know Dallas had their eye on McCourty last year if they didnt go after Dez. Where I continue to come out is that CB is a WANT. OL and DL are a NEED. And unless the talent differential is great enough, which in this case I don't think it is, you stick with areas of need.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Bracie, we have a good dialogue going here. :thumbsup:I tell you what. I'll give you a corner for Dallas. At pick 40. And a home state guy at that. Aaron WIlliams from Texas. He's got the size and athleticism to become the shut down corner you're looking for. That Ryan is looking for. He's a very viable candidate at 40 and a not unlikely draft pick for Dallas.This is why I mentioned in my first post in this thread that there are viable players at 40. But not one at OT that can be relied upon. This is what the thinking is moving towards on Cowboy boards. The OT needs to be filled at 9. The drop off in talent at 40 is too extreme for that spot. In contrast, the expected drop off in talent at CB, DE, G, and S is not as severe. You can get a viable CB at 40. Questionable to get one at 9.

I would agree with that if I felt that getting the type of shut down corner would be a statistically sound strategy to wait until pick #40 but their is little evidence that is a good statistical strategy. It is extremely difficult to find the sort of shut down CB that I know Rob Ryan wants/needs to run his defense. Its a totally different defensive strategy than a less aggressive defensive coverage Wade Phillips type of defense. It requires a rare type of cover corner.I am not taking a thing away from your view.I think you make a good case and I think I make a good nuff case because I think I understand what Ryan wants and needs and I don't think he can find his guy later.

Agreed that odds at 40 are less than at 9. A couple of counterpoints, however.First, I just don't think Amukamara has the elite shut down skills. Good player, yes. But I'm not seeing the elite shut down skills. The guy available who might is the kid from Miami. He's more of a man-to-man cover corner.Second, the shut down corner may be on the roster already. Jenkins showed that ability in 09. He took people out of the game that year. Had metrics that ranked among the true elites. Its such a contrast to what happened last year. But if Ryan's as good as he says he is, he'll get that 09 Jenkins back on the field. He's still young.Not sure how much more we can beat this horse. I respect your thoughts on Ryan and what he wants. I'm not saying that CB isnt a target position. I know Dallas had their eye on McCourty last year if they didnt go after Dez. Where I continue to come out is that CB is a WANT. OL and DL are a NEED. And unless the talent differential is great enough, which in this case I don't think it is, you stick with areas of need.

OK, I promise this is the last reply on this particular topic but I want to address your counterpoints then I'm done.On ability. I haven't said one word on the player you mentioned because I simply don't know about the ability of the O-Lineman that you want and I cannot agree that Akumara is not capable of being the corner that Ryan needs to run his scheme effectively. I won't comment on any second round players because the odds don't honor that sort of projection for the sort of CB I'm talking about that is statistically found in the top ten picks if available in a draft.On having a shut down CB on the team already. Look at what both Ryan brothers did last year at the CB position and decide for yourself how much importance they place on the corner position.Rex Ryan the HC of the NY Jets already had uber stud CB Darrelle Revis so what was the biggest off-season acquisition that he made on defense? He signed former Pro Bowl CB Antonio Cromarte from San Deigo AND drafted CB Kyle Wilson in the first round.Now let that sink in for a bit, think about it. Do you think Rex Ryan thought highly of Darrelle Revis before he took the Jet job? If you agree that he did then why would he go out and pay big bucks for Cromarte AND use his first round draft pick to take ANOTHER cornerback?In Cleveland his brother, your new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, already had CB Eric Wright who was coming off of his best season at corner and was considered a young up-and-coming DB in the league but what was one of the biggest defensive acquisitions by the Browns in last year's off-season? They TRADED to acquire CB Sheldon Brown from Philly AND they then used thier top ten draft pick on CB Joe Haden. They made those moves knowing they had CB Eric Wright on the club who was coming off a solid season. The take that corner is a low-level want type of luxury pick for the top ten contrasts with the recent history of Rob Ryan and his brother Rex. Oh and the pre-draft book on Joe Haden last year reads nearly identical to what people are saying about Prince Akumara from this year. Proven commodity but 'concerns' about speed. Joe Haden wasn't a fan favorite on draft day but by the end of the year Cleveland fans absolutely loved him.I think if Akumara ends up being the pick that you won't be doing cartwheels on draft day but you will end up loving the pick when its all said and done.Speaking of which I'm done on this particular subject of Prince Akumara. Cheers!

 

[Aznflyer14]

Bracie, we have a good dialogue going here. :thumbsup:I tell you what. I'll give you a corner for Dallas. At pick 40. And a home state guy at that. Aaron WIlliams from Texas. He's got the size and athleticism to become the shut down corner you're looking for. That Ryan is looking for. He's a very viable candidate at 40 and a not unlikely draft pick for Dallas.This is why I mentioned in my first post in this thread that there are viable players at 40. But not one at OT that can be relied upon. This is what the thinking is moving towards on Cowboy boards. The OT needs to be filled at 9. The drop off in talent at 40 is too extreme for that spot. In contrast, the expected drop off in talent at CB, DE, G, and S is not as severe. You can get a viable CB at 40. Questionable to get one at 9.

I would agree with that if I felt that getting the type of shut down corner would be a statistically sound strategy to wait until pick #40 but their is little evidence that is a good statistical strategy. It is extremely difficult to find the sort of shut down CB that I know Rob Ryan wants/needs to run his defense. Its a totally different defensive strategy than a less aggressive defensive coverage Wade Phillips type of defense. It requires a rare type of cover corner.I am not taking a thing away from your view.I think you make a good case and I think I make a good nuff case because I think I understand what Ryan wants and needs and I don't think he can find his guy later.

Agreed that odds at 40 are less than at 9. A couple of counterpoints, however.First, I just don't think Amukamara has the elite shut down skills. Good player, yes. But I'm not seeing the elite shut down skills. The guy available who might is the kid from Miami. He's more of a man-to-man cover corner.Second, the shut down corner may be on the roster already. Jenkins showed that ability in 09. He took people out of the game that year. Had metrics that ranked among the true elites. Its such a contrast to what happened last year. But if Ryan's as good as he says he is, he'll get that 09 Jenkins back on the field. He's still young.Not sure how much more we can beat this horse. I respect your thoughts on Ryan and what he wants. I'm not saying that CB isnt a target position. I know Dallas had their eye on McCourty last year if they didnt go after Dez. Where I continue to come out is that CB is a WANT. OL and DL are a NEED. And unless the talent differential is great enough, which in this case I don't think it is, you stick with areas of need.

OK, I promise this is the last reply on this particular topic but I want to address your counterpoints then I'm done.On ability. I haven't said one word on the player you mentioned because I simply don't know about the ability of the O-Lineman that you want and I cannot agree that Akumara is not capable of being the corner that Ryan needs to run his scheme effectively. I won't comment on any second round players because the odds don't honor that sort of projection for the sort of CB I'm talking about that is statistically found in the top ten picks if available in a draft.On having a shut down CB on the team already. Look at what both Ryan brothers did last year at the CB position and decide for yourself how much importance they place on the corner position.Rex Ryan the HC of the NY Jets already had uber stud CB Darrelle Revis so what was the biggest off-season acquisition that he made on defense? He signed former Pro Bowl CB Antonio Cromarte from San Deigo AND drafted CB Kyle Wilson in the first round.Now let that sink in for a bit, think about it. Do you think Rex Ryan thought highly of Darrelle Revis before he took the Jet job? If you agree that he did then why would he go out and pay big bucks for Cromarte AND use his first round draft pick to take ANOTHER cornerback?In Cleveland his brother, your new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, already had CB Eric Wright who was coming off of his best season at corner and was considered a young up-and-coming DB in the league but what was one of the biggest defensive acquisitions by the Browns in last year's off-season? They TRADED to acquire CB Sheldon Brown from Philly AND they then used thier top ten draft pick on CB Joe Haden. They made those moves knowing they had CB Eric Wright on the club who was coming off a solid season. The take that corner is a low-level want type of luxury pick for the top ten contrasts with the recent history of Rob Ryan and his brother Rex. Oh and the pre-draft book on Joe Haden last year reads nearly identical to what people are saying about Prince Akumara from this year. Proven commodity but 'concerns' about speed. Joe Haden wasn't a fan favorite on draft day but by the end of the year Cleveland fans absolutely loved him.I think if Akumara ends up being the pick that you won't be doing cartwheels on draft day but you will end up loving the pick when its all said and done.Speaking of which I'm done on this particular subject of Prince Akumara. Cheers!

Knowing Jerry Jones and his fat wallet, he probably would try to pursue and sign Nnamdi Asomugha to give Rob Ryan's a shutdown CB he covets in his defensive schemes.

 

[Grid71]

Knowing Jerry Jones and his fat wallet, he probably would try to pursue and sign Nnamdi Asomugha to give Rob Ryan's a shutdown CB he covets in his defensive schemes.

I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled this off either. Jerry had to be frustrated with not being able to go after free agents last off season. Much depends upon how things shake out from the CBA of course.

 

[moderated]

Newton is Jamarcuspart 2. Whoever takes him is hurting their franchise for years.

Their playing styles are nothing alike.He's much more comparable to c-pepper but Newton is an even better runner.

 

[RustyFA2]

Newton is Jamarcuspart 2. Whoever takes him is hurting their franchise for years.

Their playing styles are nothing alike.He's much more comparable to c-pepper but Newton is an even better runner.

You have got to be kidding me. Culpepper threw for a crazy amount of yards at UCF. He was a passer that could, and did, run. He was never a run first guy.Newton is nowhere near the passer that Culpepper was. Newton is a winner and I personally think he will in games in the NFL-and be worthless in FF. My one concern based off of watching Newton exclusively for 3 games this year is that he makes one read only.He makes his first read, if it is not open he does not go to the second read. He either moves the pocket to his right or takes off. When he moves the pocket he then can find an open receiver. That scares me as an NFL team. It is ok to move the pocket but make as many reads as possible before doing so. He runs too much but that will be fixed. You can not blame him for running as he was so good at it and it was so effective.

 

[jurb26]

I have no idea who will go where at this point but I'll rank the top 10 players in the draft as I see it:

1. AJ Green, WR - As polished and skilled a WR that there has ever been coming out of college. He's an elite talent and he should easily be taken in the top 5.

2. Patrick Petterson, CB - An athletic marvel given his size and ridiculous cover skills. There's been talk of him moving to S but I think that is silliness. It's not that he couldn't play S, it's just that lock down cover CB is one of the most difficult and rare talents to find in the NFL and that is what he is.

3. Marcell Dareus, DT - I'm sure a lot of people wont like this ranking given that the consensuses is that there are at least 2 Dlinemen in this draft better than him. I don't buy it though. I watched Dareus dominate at a high level for 2 straight years at Alabama and I feel he is a safer pick than either Bowers or Fairley.

4. Da'Quan Bowers, DE - Best pure pass rusher in the draft and is as physically gifted as they come. He only dominated for one year however and he needs some work to complete his game. Otherwise he'd be higher on this list.

5. Nick Fairely, DT - Like Bowers, he's as physically gifted as they come. They guy was an absolute monster this past year and had just as much to do with Auburn's title run as Newton. He can take over games from the inside and is capable of being unblock-able 1 on 1. The only thing keeping him from being the #1 guy on my board is the questions about his character and the question of where has he been until this past year?

6. Robert Quinn, DE - Had Quinn not missed the entire season last year, he'd be on everyone's top 5 list. The guy can simply play football. He may be better than Bowers as a prospect. I think he's a more complete football player though not the explosive threat that Bowers is. Some questions must be raised due to suspension.

7. Von Miller, OLB - Miller is flying up draft boards due to a stellar Senior Bowl performance. He's a sick athlete for the LB position but his lack of ideal size will scare some teams. He's really only ideal fro playing in a 3-4 scheme. Despite that, Miller is guy that can wreak havoc all over the field for whoever drafts him

8. Jimmy Smith, CB - Here's another ranking that I'm sure I differ from the masses on as it seems Prince is the consensus #2 CB in the draft. I like Smith more though. I love his size, athleticism and overall cover ability. He's got the make up of a shut down CB IMO. He can stand at the LOS and jam anyone. His only real weakness is something that I like from CBs anyway, he can be overly aggressive. He will continue to move up the draft board as the draft gets nearer and I see him passing up Prince.

9. Nate Solder, OT - Solder is the best T prospect in the 2011 class and that is mostly because of his athleticism and feet (he used to play TE). He has potential to become a franchise caliber player who can bookend the left side of the line for years.

10. Julio Jones, WR - Jones is a monster at the WR position standing 6'4", 215 lbs. He's a physical WR that reminds me of TO with great ability after the catch.

I don't have B. Gabbert in the top 10 mainly because I simply haven't seen enough of him to rank him that highly. I understand that many see him as a top 10 talent but I need more time to evaluate.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Newton is Jamarcuspart 2. Whoever takes him is hurting their franchise for years.

Their playing styles are nothing alike.He's much more comparable to c-pepper but Newton is an even better runner.

You have got to be kidding me. Culpepper threw for a crazy amount of yards at UCF. He was a passer that could, and did, run. He was never a run first guy.Newton is nowhere near the passer that Culpepper was. Newton is a winner and I personally think he will in games in the NFL-and be worthless in FF. My one concern based off of watching Newton exclusively for 3 games this year is that he makes one read only.He makes his first read, if it is not open he does not go to the second read. He either moves the pocket to his right or takes off. When he moves the pocket he then can find an open receiver. That scares me as an NFL team. It is ok to move the pocket but make as many reads as possible before doing so. He runs too much but that will be fixed. You can not blame him for running as he was so good at it and it was so effective.

I've compared Newton to Russell a couple times before, but it has nothing to do with thier playing style. What worries me is that I think Newton might pull a Russell and call it quits after him and his father get thier big pay day.But being a Bills fan and thinking they might take Newton, I sure hope he's not the next Russell.

 

[Instinctive]

Having watched Prince live and focused on him specifically, I think he's overhyped. In particular, I would point out that a shutdown corner probably doesn't get his ankles broken so badly by Kenny Stills that he falls down...

Top 5 guy, sure, but I also would prefer Jimmy Smith, and perhaps others...

 

[footballaa]

Newton's going to the Bills. Put it in the bank.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Having watched Prince live and focused on him specifically, I think he's overhyped. In particular, I would point out that a shutdown corner probably doesn't get his ankles broken so badly by Kenny Stills that he falls down...Top 5 guy, sure, but I also would prefer Jimmy Smith, and perhaps others...

I'm shocked that someone with an Oklahoma Sooners icon would say anything negative about a player from Nebraska. Shocked.

 

[Instinctive]

Having watched Prince live and focused on him specifically, I think he's overhyped. In particular, I would point out that a shutdown corner probably doesn't get his ankles broken so badly by Kenny Stills that he falls down...Top 5 guy, sure, but I also would prefer Jimmy Smith, and perhaps others...

I'm shocked that someone with an Oklahoma Sooners icon would say anything negative about a player from Nebraska. Shocked.

Ad hominem. And I've only been a Sooner for a few months - the previous five generations are all Illinois grads - but, as I mentioned, anybody who gets beaten as thoroughly and repeatedly as he did by Kenny Stills the freshman is NOT a shutdown corner.Don't give me crap about being some kind of hate all players from Nebraska guy. That's moronic, and on the level of "well he must be on your team!" I'm incredibly successful in FF because I don't have any true team allegiances.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I'm incredibly successful in FF because I don't have any true team allegiances.

Incredibly successful you say?

 

[Instinctive]

I'm incredibly successful in FF because I don't have any true team allegiances.

Incredibly successful you say?

Ehh. I compete in most leagues most years. And I haven't lost the local money league since my 2nd year playing. But - this is irrelevant. Perhaps I should edit a little conceit out of the post you quote?

 

[WVU Alum]

I'm incredibly successful in FF because I don't have any true team allegiances.

Incredibly successful you say?

Ehh. I compete in most leagues most years. And I haven't lost the local money league since my 2nd year playing. But - this is irrelevant. Perhaps I should edit a little conceit out of the post you quote?

Why do that? Since all we have is your word, I believe that was just the right amount of conceit.

 

[Obie Wan]

<!--quoteo(post=12929928:date=Feb 18 2011, 11:33 AM:name=scrumptrulescent)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (scrumptrulescent @ Feb 18 2011, 11:33 AM) <a href="index.php?act=findpost&pid=12929928"><{POST_SNAPBACK}></a></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Mayock is starting to beat the drum about Peterson's size. Said he could become a pro bowl safety. Safety is not going to go in the top 5 of the draft.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->Sean Taylor did in 2004.Laron Landry went 6th in 2007 and in 2006 you had Michael Huff and Donte Whitner at 7 & 8 respectively.Eric Turner went #2 way back in '91.It wouldn't be unprecedented for Peterson to go top 5 as a safety.

I wouldn't be using Huff and Whitner to justify a safety pick in the top 5