2014 ACC Basketball [Closed - use 2015 thread instead] (1 Viewer)

[sporthenry]

I was looking at profiles and Maryland actually isn't dead and UVA is probably more on the bubble than people think. Here are the two profiles.Team A: RPI 67, SOS 128, Non-Conf SOS 297, RPI Top 25: 2-2, 26-50: 1-0, 51-100: 3-0, 101-200: 7-5, 201+: 6-1Team B: RPI 72, SOS 110, Non-Conf SOS 298, RPI Top 25: 1-3, 26-50: 1-1, 51-100: 1-3, 101-200: 9-2, 201+: 7-0I'll probably give it away with Team A has won the head-to-head match-up. But certainly the last head to head match-up will be huge and either could play themselves into the NCAAT.

I hope you're right, but the Terps' resume just doesn't look like a tourney team's to me. Maybe I'm too close to see it clearly, though.

The good news is that the group of teams that currently make up "the bubble" just aren't very good. The bad news is neither is Maryland's resume. Dancecard has them at team #60 with a just over 3% chance to make it in, with the bubble line at #50. So, they still have work to do.UVA is barely in at #49. Eta - with a RPI on dancecard of 73, they are have the worst RPI of the 'in' schools, by 18 (St. John's with 55).

Yeah, I was surprised when I looked at UVA's resume that it was that poor. Kenpom loves them but not sure that will be enough. They need a signature win in the next few weeks. Maryland isn't in or close to it but they can easily play their way into it. If they win out and win 2+ games in the ACCT, meaning they beat a top 4 team, they'd seemingly be in. But losses to teams like Tech, aren't killers. They aren't good but I feel like a loss to Tech followed by a win versus UNC would be better than the other way around. Committee seems to want you to have the ability to beat good teams. One thing that kills both teams is their non-conference SOS which if the committee rewards a team with a strong non-conference, both teams are in trouble.ETA: Thanks for Dancecard. It'd be nice if Palm or Lunardi did that b/c those last few teams can jump around a ton and a team 10 spots out could easily jump if they have some big wins.

 

[Worm]

Yeah... if State had Maryland/UVA's non-conference schedule last year they wouldn't have been in. They openly stated what a big deal it was to have a strong non-conference schedule, even if, like State, you don't win many of the top 50-ish rpi type games.

 

[TobiasFunke]

This uva game tonight is scary. Have a bad feeling

Your gut ain't lying to you. Game started at Duke -2, bettors hammered UVa to the point that they're now favored by 1. Pomeroy has Duke by 1, but that obviously includes data for Duke with Kelly. UVa's been pretty sharp recently. The UNC loss was uncharacteristic tempo-wise and they still kept it close on the road most of the way. Everything else is either a big win or a loss that's a reasonable result.

 

[sporthenry]

This uva game tonight is scary. Have a bad feeling

Your gut ain't lying to you. Game started at Duke -2, bettors hammered UVa to the point that they're now favored by 1. Pomeroy has Duke by 1, but that obviously includes data for Duke with Kelly. UVa's been pretty sharp recently. The UNC loss was uncharacteristic tempo-wise and they still kept it close on the road most of the way. Everything else is either a big win or a loss that's a reasonable result.

I think this game will show how good the computer systems are. Obviously one game doesn't make or break a system but it should give some insight. Not sure what the betters have in mind. UVA has been playing and shooting very well as of late. And perhaps they are trying to get Duke into a look ahead game. I have more faith than that. Veteran team and I'm sure they won't underestimate UVA. I'm sure they have Miami circled on their calendar but I also doubt its as big of a game as Michigan is to Michigan State. They did hang 82 on Tech who according to Kenpom are better defensively than Duke or UVA. But against Miami they struggled mightily and slowed the pace down. Miami should have won that game going away but missed some open shots. So if the game resembles the Miami game, I think Duke wins going away. UVA does have an impressive eFG% but I'm interested in their performance against the better defensive teams. I'm also going to look into their home/away splits to see if they play that much better at home. But UVA doesn't hit the offensive boards despite their size advantage on the wings and they don't get to the line much. If Duke plays tough defense to start and hits a few shots, it could make UVA come out of its shell.

 

[tdoss]

I don't think Duke is or has overlooked UVA.I think they may have overlooked MD...thinking about these upcoming games with UVA, Miami and as always, UNC.

 

[Aerial Assault]

This uva game tonight is scary. Have a bad feeling

Me too. I never thought U-Haul was a tough place to play, but JPJ is, Virginia (like seemingly every Duke opponent) needs a sig win, and I'm not feeling it for the Blue Devils tonight. Good news about Kelly, though, and I doubt Miami drops another one (and I think they have the ladder tiebreaker over Duke anyway), so as long as Duke plays reasonably well I'm fine.

 

[TLEF316]

Kelly will dress tonight but won't play.

 

[moderated]

I'm also going to look into their home/away splits to see if they play that much better at home.

They are undefeated at home. The public loves Duke in this game but Virginia will likely win, possibly by 10+.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

This uva game tonight is scary. Have a bad feeling

Your gut ain't lying to you. Game started at Duke -2, bettors hammered UVa to the point that they're now favored by 1. Pomeroy has Duke by 1, but that obviously includes data for Duke with Kelly. UVa's been pretty sharp recently. The UNC loss was uncharacteristic tempo-wise and they still kept it close on the road most of the way. Everything else is either a big win or a loss that's a reasonable result.

Duke opened pk. As we sit here currently, the game is pk at CRIS and Pinny leaning slightly to Virginia. So it hasn't moved much at all. Don't look anywhere besides CRIS for the opening line. The Bet Online openers are at such small limits that you can't respect them. They are often off by a couple points from CRIS.

 

[sporthenry]

I'm also going to look into their home/away splits to see if they play that much better at home.

They are undefeated at home. The public loves Duke in this game but Virginia will likely win, possibly by 10+.

Wanna make a bet? I guess you'd might as well just make it with a book but if you want to give me 10 points, I'll take it. They did lose to Delaware at home. If you meant in conference, that is correct although they got UNC pre the small lineup and then they beat NC State by 3. I'm not sure why you think Duke is worse than NC State.

 

[oso diablo]

weird, i feel quite the opposite of other Duke fans posting here. I feel really good about a Duke win.

 

[sporthenry]

Yeah, I was surprised when I looked at UVA's resume that it was that poor. Kenpom loves them but not sure that will be enough. They need a signature win in the next few weeks. Maryland isn't in or close to it but they can easily play their way into it. If they win out and win 2+ games in the ACCT, meaning they beat a top 4 team, they'd seemingly be in. But losses to teams like Tech, aren't killers. They aren't good but I feel like a loss to Tech followed by a win versus UNC would be better than the other way around. Committee seems to want you to have the ability to beat good teams.

Virginia is a coinflip at best for an at-large bid, and Maryland is out without winning the ACCT. UVA has 6 wins over the RPI 100, and 3 over the RPI 50. 5 RPI 100 wins is usually enough for consideration. However, they have 6 bad losses, including one loss outside of the RPI 300 - 4-24 Old Dominion. IMO they need two more wins against teams ahead of them in the ACC to get an at-large.Maryland's NCSOS is brutal. 12 games outside the RPI 150. They lost their only non-conference RPI 50 game. They only have three wins against the RPI 100, and one of them is Stony Brook, who might drop out of the RPI 100 by Selection Sunday. The Terps need to win the ACCT to get in. There's just too many power conference teams with slightly stronger resumes, and several top mid-majors have stronger at-large arguments.

I highly doubt MD needs to win the ACCT. Both teams are hurt by their non-conf. but most of the bubble teams are and continuing to lose. Nova is probably in but has 2 games left versus ranked opponents. Baylor hasn't looked very good. The A-10, Mountain West and any other mid-majors don't have the amount of chances to get good wins. I'd say if Maryland wins out, and wins their 2nd round match up. That will give them 3 wins versus tourney teams assuming UVA is in or at worst a better resume than UVA. But the bubble is extremely weak this year. And you can pretty much play yourself onto the bubble by winning and only a handful of teams have great non-conference SOSs and most of them are BCC teams.

 

[moderated]

I'm also going to look into their home/away splits to see if they play that much better at home.

They are undefeated at home. The public loves Duke in this game but Virginia will likely win, possibly by 10+.

Wanna make a bet? I guess you'd might as well just make it with a book but if you want to give me 10 points, I'll take it.

Of course I won't give 10 Points, I already have it bet at even. I do think the game could get away from Duke, and while I think it's possible Virginia blows them out it isn't likely. Should be a fairly easy win for them though as they have been on fire at home lately.

 

[Aerial Assault]

weird, i feel quite the opposite of other Duke fans posting here. I feel really good about a Duke win.

You never know who's antiwoofing.

 

[sporthenry]

weird, i feel quite the opposite of other Duke fans posting here. I feel really good about a Duke win.

I do too. I don't know what opponents shoot at UVA but Duke comes in shooting really well. UVA seems like a grab bag shooting wise. Shot terribly against NC State, Tennessee, and Miami but shot really well versus UNC and UMD. From what I can remember, Duke plays fairly well versus teams that slow the game down and are efficient but not spectacular.

 

[sporthenry]

I'm also going to look into their home/away splits to see if they play that much better at home.

They are undefeated at home. The public loves Duke in this game but Virginia will likely win, possibly by 10+.

Wanna make a bet? I guess you'd might as well just make it with a book but if you want to give me 10 points, I'll take it.

Of course I won't give 10 Points, I already have it bet at even. I do think the game could get away from Duke, and while I think it's possible Virginia blows them out it isn't likely. Should be a fairly easy win for them though as they have been on fire at home lately.

Against the likes of Va. Tech, Georgia Tech and Clemson.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Three more wins no matter who they are against and UVA is going to the tournament. The 3 CAA losses are bad but were all early. They have played great down the stretch and if they win 12 ACC games they are not getting left out.

 

[Grady Wilson]

The Carolina/Clemson game was ugly. Carolina is pretty much a shoe in for the tourney, but they are going to have to tone it down on relying so much on the perimeter. I understand they have a four guard lineup and all, but that doesn't mean they can't at least attack the rim from time to time. Those shots won't fall all the time.

 

[Aerial Assault]

Great start for Duke.

 

[Penguin]

Great start for Duke.

This is going to be a very tough game for them

 

[moderated]

Duke is just outmatched vs Virginia at home. This one could get really ugly, duke will be lucky to lose by less then 10.

 

[tdoss]

Same ol' Plumlee...getting pushed around and now frustrated and picking up a dumb foul.

 

[tdoss]

This could be an impossible game for Duke...you've got Plumlee getting pushed around and refs are allowing it (which is fine)...but he doesn't have the ability to respond to it without frustration.And Curry picking up fouls and is out of sync.So...Curry coming to the rescue to make up for Plumlee (ACC POTY Candidate) and his problems doesn't seem to be available just yet.

 

[tdoss]

weird, i feel quite the opposite of other Duke fans posting here. I feel really good about a Duke win.

I did (and still do) also...that's why I was saying I don't think Duke has overlooked UVA. They see them and know it's going to be a struggle.Now if we can just get Plumlee to find his groove.

 

[Aerial Assault]

So Duke was getting TRIPLED UP at roughly the 10:00 mark, 18-6, then outscored UVa 17-10 to close to within five at halftime. Actually quite the achievement. Virginia has the ball to start the second half unless I missed a tie-up. Ridiculous how Duke's defense can't figure out Virginia's offense, which has three options.

 

[TLEF316]

Great job by duke to stay close after that start. They have to find a way to punish Virginia for their incredibly aggressive hedging. Can't blame plumlee for the first half. There isn't much you can do when a team doubles like that. Duke really missing the big wing they would need to guard harris. Rodney Hood can't get eligible soon enough

 

[tdoss]

So Duke was getting TRIPLED UP at roughly the 10:00 mark, 18-6, then outscored UVa 17-10 to close to within five at halftime. Actually quite the achievement. Virginia has the ball to start the second half unless I missed a tie-up. Ridiculous how Duke's defense can't figure out Virginia's offense, which has three options.

I agree...I'm assuming adjustments will be made and K will point out what they're doing.Hopefully someone will tell Plumlee how to post up deeper and bend his knees to sink into the block. If he can just get position...he'll either get the basket or more than likely pick up the foul. UVA will loosen up with a foul or two underneath.

 

[Aerial Assault]

So Duke was getting TRIPLED UP at roughly the 10:00 mark, 18-6, then outscored UVa 17-10 to close to within five at halftime. Actually quite the achievement. Virginia has the ball to start the second half unless I missed a tie-up. Ridiculous how Duke's defense can't figure out Virginia's offense, which has three options.

I agree...I'm assuming adjustments will be made and K will point out what they're doing.Hopefully someone will tell Plumlee how to post up deeper and bend his knees to sink into the block. If he can just get position...he'll either get the basket or more than likely pick up the foul. UVA will loosen up with a foul or two underneath.

Good analysis.

 

[tdoss]

Great job by duke to stay close after that start. They have to find a way to punish Virginia for their incredibly aggressive hedging. Can't blame plumlee for the first half. There isn't much you can do when a team doubles like that. Duke really missing the big wing they would need to guard harris. Rodney Hood can't get eligible soon enough

I agree...and disagree.You can't do much about the double...Kelly returning will stop a LOT of that.But you CAN get your @zz deeper into the block and sink it in. Stop letting them push you out before you even freaking get the ball. It's the same story with him every year...I give him no quarter. He needs to prove he's a big man...sink your hips and make them foul your @zz in order to dig you out!UVA is basically doing what BC did...but with better talent. We're going to see a lot more of this until Kelly returns. I'm hoping he can return to form quickly...otherwise the blueprint will be enacted every game of the tourney until someone catches Duke when Curry has a bad shooting night that can't make up for it. Thankfully Sheed stepped up that one game that both Plumlee and Curry stuggled.

 

[tdoss]

Not a good second half start for Plumlee...he just can't seem to figure out where to be or how to react.He's out of position defensively and offensively he's out of rhythm.He'll need some easy tip-ins/slams/layups in transition to get him out of his funk...or a couple fouls on the guy banging him.

 

[tdoss]

Desperation shots by Duke because UVA is playing them so well...especially Plumlee.Good block by Plumlee after flopping...hopefully he can build on that mentally.It's not a physical thing with him...it's mental.

 

[moderated]

Duke is lucky to be keeping it close. Could easily be a 15+ point lead for Virginia but they seem to let up when they get up by 5+.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Coach K grandstanding the refs again

 

[Aerial Assault]

Roger Ayers "All ball" earns a technical. God, I love this conference

 

[tdoss]

BEAUTIFUL move by Plumlee. He sank in...got doubled and then split them.

 

[tdoss]

Roger Ayers "All ball" earns a technical. God, I love this conference

I agree with it though. I was saying earlier when K called a timeout it was time for one because Sheed seems to jaw too much and throw his arms up when a call goes against him. That's gotta stop.K will work the refs...don't respond...just move on. I can't remember seeing a Duke player get away with that as often as Sheed does.

 

[oso diablo]

"all ball" = tech? that's a joke

 

[oso diablo]

can i make a punny quip about sour Plum(lee)s?

 

[Aerial Assault]

Roger Ayers "All ball" earns a technical. God, I love this conference

I agree with it though. I was saying earlier when K called a timeout it was time for one because Sheed seems to jaw too much and throw his arms up when a call goes against him. That's gotta stop.K will work the refs...don't respond...just move on. I can't remember seeing a Duke player get away with that as often as Sheed does.

No, dude, come on. Don't be an FBG FFA-type Duke fan who has to measure everything to a nicety and be fair and balanced as (say) Hubert Davis when considering Blue Devil matters. That call was a joke. And Ayers just followed it up with another goofy one.

 

[sporthenry]

Roger Ayers "All ball" earns a technical. God, I love this conference

I agree with it though. I was saying earlier when K called a timeout it was time for one because Sheed seems to jaw too much and throw his arms up when a call goes against him. That's gotta stop.K will work the refs...don't respond...just move on. I can't remember seeing a Duke player get away with that as often as Sheed does.

No, dude, come on. Don't be an FBG FFA-type Duke fan who has to measure everything to a nicety and be fair and balanced as (say) Hubert Davis when considering Blue Devil matters. That call was a joke. And Ayers just followed it up with another goofy one.

13-6 foul differential. Imagine if it was the other way? UVA getting bailed out with every drive.

 

[tdoss]

Roger Ayers "All ball" earns a technical. God, I love this conference

I agree with it though. I was saying earlier when K called a timeout it was time for one because Sheed seems to jaw too much and throw his arms up when a call goes against him. That's gotta stop.K will work the refs...don't respond...just move on. I can't remember seeing a Duke player get away with that as often as Sheed does.

No, dude, come on. Don't be an FBG FFA-type Duke fan who has to measure everything to a nicety and be fair and balanced as (say) Hubert Davis when considering Blue Devil matters. That call was a joke. And Ayers just followed it up with another goofy one.

I don't give a siht what the FFA thinks of my fanaticism. I've always railed against the damn Duke hate on this board...I can be diehard and as blind as the next fan...but Sheed was mouthing and throwing his arms earlier in the game. I told my wife, "timeout"...and as I was telling her why...K called it.He needs to be under control and not jaw...it don't matter what you say...stop saying anything.But outside of that...I agree that a technical is harsh as hell...how about a warning? But who knows...maybe one was already served.

 

[Aerial Assault]

Roger Ayers "All ball" earns a technical. God, I love this conference

I agree with it though. I was saying earlier when K called a timeout it was time for one because Sheed seems to jaw too much and throw his arms up when a call goes against him. That's gotta stop.K will work the refs...don't respond...just move on. I can't remember seeing a Duke player get away with that as often as Sheed does.

No, dude, come on. Don't be an FBG FFA-type Duke fan who has to measure everything to a nicety and be fair and balanced as (say) Hubert Davis when considering Blue Devil matters. That call was a joke. And Ayers just followed it up with another goofy one.

I don't give a siht what the FFA thinks of my fanaticism. I've always railed against the damn Duke hate on this board...I can be diehard and as blind as the next fan...but Sheed was mouthing and throwing his arms earlier in the game. I told my wife, "timeout"...and as I was telling her why...K called it.He needs to be under control and not jaw...it don't matter what you say...stop saying anything.But outside of that...I agree that a technical is harsh as hell...how about a warning? But who knows...maybe one was already served.

I apologize. You do stand up for Duke in here. M'bad. But the call was still garbage.

 

[oso diablo]

in all fairness to the ref, i you say "all ball" with enough conviction, it has been known to pierce thin skins.

 

[tdoss]

Ticky tack hooking call on Plumlee...but I guess it's cut and dry as any elbow grazing the face type of calls we've been seeing lately.

 

[tdoss]

UVA is seriously getting a call everytime down the court. Duke had great defense underneath there.

 

[tdoss]

Lazy passes now?Come on DUKE!

 

[tdoss]

That illegal screen almost knocked Thornton's teeth out.

 

[TLEF316]

Questionable screen. Uva getting more calls but that's not why they're winning

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

UVA is seriously getting a call everytime down the court. Duke had great defense underneath there.

Seriously, not trying to poke at you Duke fans but I think it's the old theory that the more aggressive team is getting the calls. UVA just beating Duke to lose balls, rebounds and outhustling them tonight.

 

[Aerial Assault]

God, what a horrible game. Duke has no gameplan, Plumlee's clueless, it's Virginia's Super Bowl as always, Ayers takes over . . . awesome.