theres some cool strategies here that i didnt think of. both carolina RBs for a combined $15 seems like a pretty good value that never occurred to me. also i kinda like the graham/gronk/orange julius strategy. would have liked to mess around with that a little to see what rosters i could have come up with.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
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2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
[SIZE=10.5pt]Drew Brees $26 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I tried just about every combo of mid-priced guys then got a wild hair at the end and just went with Drew. Ingram and Kelce only other week 6 byes so I’ll have all my other studs. Hopefully it is enough.
-----------------------------------
Marshawn Lynch $27
Ray Rice $18
Mark Ingram $9
Andre Williams $7
Robert Turbin $2 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Like Lynch with the early buy and backed him with Turbin. I really like Rice to bounce back this year. Also high on Ingram at that price. Hoping Williams gets the goal line looks.
-----------------------------------
A.J. Green $28
Dez Bryant $27
Brandon Marshall $26
Justin Hunter $9
Markus Wheaton $5
Mohamed Sanu $3 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I never hit on mid priced receivers so I went stud theory and a few high upside guys.
------------------------------------
Julius Thomas $26
Zach Ertz $13
Travis Kelce $8 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Definitely wanted a stud and I am really high on Ertz. Hoping for 2-3 big games from Kelce.
---------------------------------
Caleb Sturgis $3
Mike Nugent $3 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Early byes.
----------------------------------
Cleveland Browns $4
Tennessee Titans $3
Jacksonville Jaguars $3[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I’m terrible at picking D’s in this.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I tried just about every combo of mid-priced guys then got a wild hair at the end and just went with Drew. Ingram and Kelce only other week 6 byes so I’ll have all my other studs. Hopefully it is enough.
-----------------------------------
Marshawn Lynch $27
Ray Rice $18
Mark Ingram $9
Andre Williams $7
Robert Turbin $2 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Like Lynch with the early buy and backed him with Turbin. I really like Rice to bounce back this year. Also high on Ingram at that price. Hoping Williams gets the goal line looks.
-----------------------------------
A.J. Green $28
Dez Bryant $27
Brandon Marshall $26
Justin Hunter $9
Markus Wheaton $5
Mohamed Sanu $3 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I never hit on mid priced receivers so I went stud theory and a few high upside guys.
------------------------------------
Julius Thomas $26
Zach Ertz $13
Travis Kelce $8 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Definitely wanted a stud and I am really high on Ertz. Hoping for 2-3 big games from Kelce.
---------------------------------
Caleb Sturgis $3
Mike Nugent $3 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Early byes.
----------------------------------
Cleveland Browns $4
Tennessee Titans $3
Jacksonville Jaguars $3[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I’m terrible at picking D’s in this.[/SIZE]
Wonderllama
Footballguy
QB Nick Foles $19
QB Russell Wilson $15
RB Eddie Lacy $28
RB Shane Vereen $23
RB Danny Woodhead $13
RB Devonta Freeman $11
RB Carlos Hyde $10
RB James Starks $5
WR Demaryius Thomas $29
WR Jordy Nelson $25
WR Jarrett Boykin $9
WR Cody Latimer $6
WR Kelvin Benjamin $5
TE Julius Thomas $26
TE Richard Rodgers $5
K Justin Tucker $5
K Blair Walsh $3
DEF Seattle Seahawks $9
DEF Carolina Panthers $4
I will almost certainly be eliminated by week 4 or week 9. Oh well.
QB Russell Wilson $15
RB Eddie Lacy $28
RB Shane Vereen $23
RB Danny Woodhead $13
RB Devonta Freeman $11
RB Carlos Hyde $10
RB James Starks $5
WR Demaryius Thomas $29
WR Jordy Nelson $25
WR Jarrett Boykin $9
WR Cody Latimer $6
WR Kelvin Benjamin $5
TE Julius Thomas $26
TE Richard Rodgers $5
K Justin Tucker $5
K Blair Walsh $3
DEF Seattle Seahawks $9
DEF Carolina Panthers $4
I will almost certainly be eliminated by week 4 or week 9. Oh well.
Last edited by a moderator:
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Hey no prob. Thanks for the effort, and I'll definitely contribute some $ for your work.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
My team with overly-optimistic analysis:
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger
--------------------
While most of my roster had about 90% turnover, these two QBs were on practically every singe iteration. The other excellent QB bargains I considered here were Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer. I am fairly confident that one of these two guys will dominate almost every week.
--------------------
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy
Frank Gore
LeGarrette Blount
Donald Brown
Benny Cunningham
--------------------
I toyed with Marshawn and Gio as my #1. I just love Lacy's potential. Zac Stacy fell in plenty of snake drafts this year. But that run game is very good. And even if another RB vultures from Stacy, I still think he finishes in the top 10. Gore is a steal. While watching Trent just kill my fantasy team last year, I saw a lot of Donald Brown. I think the guy is a huge sleeper. All those excuses about Indy's bad O-line last year didn't bother Brown, who looked quick and decisive.
--------------------
A.J. Green
Jordy Nelson
Terrance Williams
Andrew Hawkins
Harry Douglas
Kelvin Benjamin
John Brown
--------------------
Tons...TONS of great WR choices this year. I slotted several top WR studs in that spot, but AJ's early bye tipped it for me. I think Jordy is in for a monster year, so I believe I have two legit #1 WR studs. I really would be shocked if Terrance Williams didn't go off for Dallas. You have to love his potential. Hawkins is a small WR on a Cleveland team that wants to run the football. But Cleve loves Hawkins, and I think Cameron will draw coverage away from Hawkins. With the loss of Gonzalez, I think Douglas will be excellent in a best ball format. Kelvin will probably be the most owned player in this contest. I don't care. Kelvin is a bargain, and that's why I paid for him.
--------------------
Dennis Pitta
Kyle Rudolph
Brent Celek
--------------------
Two starting TEs that both have the potential to kill it this year. I'll tell you what, Celek could easily outperform most of the TEs in that $10 to $13 range. Celek will be quiet in some weeks, but I think he could go off more than enough times to make him an interesting #3 TE.
--------------------
Mike Nugent
Josh Brown
Shayne Graham
Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles
--------------------
Blah blah blah kickers and defense.
--------------------
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger
--------------------
While most of my roster had about 90% turnover, these two QBs were on practically every singe iteration. The other excellent QB bargains I considered here were Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer. I am fairly confident that one of these two guys will dominate almost every week.
--------------------
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy
Frank Gore
LeGarrette Blount
Donald Brown
Benny Cunningham
--------------------
I toyed with Marshawn and Gio as my #1. I just love Lacy's potential. Zac Stacy fell in plenty of snake drafts this year. But that run game is very good. And even if another RB vultures from Stacy, I still think he finishes in the top 10. Gore is a steal. While watching Trent just kill my fantasy team last year, I saw a lot of Donald Brown. I think the guy is a huge sleeper. All those excuses about Indy's bad O-line last year didn't bother Brown, who looked quick and decisive.
--------------------
A.J. Green
Jordy Nelson
Terrance Williams
Andrew Hawkins
Harry Douglas
Kelvin Benjamin
John Brown
--------------------
Tons...TONS of great WR choices this year. I slotted several top WR studs in that spot, but AJ's early bye tipped it for me. I think Jordy is in for a monster year, so I believe I have two legit #1 WR studs. I really would be shocked if Terrance Williams didn't go off for Dallas. You have to love his potential. Hawkins is a small WR on a Cleveland team that wants to run the football. But Cleve loves Hawkins, and I think Cameron will draw coverage away from Hawkins. With the loss of Gonzalez, I think Douglas will be excellent in a best ball format. Kelvin will probably be the most owned player in this contest. I don't care. Kelvin is a bargain, and that's why I paid for him.
--------------------
Dennis Pitta
Kyle Rudolph
Brent Celek
--------------------
Two starting TEs that both have the potential to kill it this year. I'll tell you what, Celek could easily outperform most of the TEs in that $10 to $13 range. Celek will be quiet in some weeks, but I think he could go off more than enough times to make him an interesting #3 TE.
--------------------
Mike Nugent
Josh Brown
Shayne Graham
Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles
--------------------
Blah blah blah kickers and defense.
--------------------
heres mine. been doing this for like 7 years now and the only time i ever made money it was because of my stud RBs and $3 james jones. so tried to recapture the magic:
Ben Roethlisberger $10
Eli Manning $9
Joe Flacco $8
didnt really put a lot of thought into QBs. just wanted a combo of 3 lower priced guys on different bye weeks that were unlikely to lose their job at any point.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LeSean McCoy $34
Matt Forte $32
Adrian Peterson $30
DeMarco Murray $27
straight up loaded up on stud RBs (probably went a little overboard tbh). i just feel like theres no way to get solid value out of the mid priced RBs without getting super lucky so wanted to lock in high level produciton here. gave some thought to downgrading to a group of tier 2 RBs like martin/gio/ellington in order to add another mid level WR but couldn't find anything i really liked and ended up going back to this.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Torrey Smith $16
Brian Hartline $11
Justin Hunter $9
Kelvin Benjamin $5
Markus Wheaton $5
Andre Roberts $3
Mohamed Sanu $3
obv my weakest area. didn't know how to break the wheaton/benjamin tie (cant believe so many went with benjamin) so just ended up with both of them. this ragtag bunch is def a little scary. im just going to need at least one of my non-torrey guys to put up numbers consistently. just no way around that.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jimmy Graham $30
Marcedes Lewis $6
every year i go either 2 $15ish TEs or a huge combo platter of $3-$8 guys but decided to go top shelf here this year. wanted more backup but ultimately felt that i needed jimmy to go ham if i was gonna have a chance so decided not to spend much more here. mercedes had some decent games down the stretch last year so maybe theres some value in him and he can chip in occasionally or if graham should miss a game or two.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greg Zuerlein $3
Blair Walsh $3
love this combo in best ball this year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Steelers $3
New York Jets $3
always only take 2 of each special teams. and always from the cheapest tier. i just feel like the extra money isnt that well spent here. id just much rather roll that money into another lower end WR or RB.
Ben Roethlisberger $10
Eli Manning $9
Joe Flacco $8
didnt really put a lot of thought into QBs. just wanted a combo of 3 lower priced guys on different bye weeks that were unlikely to lose their job at any point.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LeSean McCoy $34
Matt Forte $32
Adrian Peterson $30
DeMarco Murray $27
straight up loaded up on stud RBs (probably went a little overboard tbh). i just feel like theres no way to get solid value out of the mid priced RBs without getting super lucky so wanted to lock in high level produciton here. gave some thought to downgrading to a group of tier 2 RBs like martin/gio/ellington in order to add another mid level WR but couldn't find anything i really liked and ended up going back to this.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Torrey Smith $16
Brian Hartline $11
Justin Hunter $9
Kelvin Benjamin $5
Markus Wheaton $5
Andre Roberts $3
Mohamed Sanu $3
obv my weakest area. didn't know how to break the wheaton/benjamin tie (cant believe so many went with benjamin) so just ended up with both of them. this ragtag bunch is def a little scary. im just going to need at least one of my non-torrey guys to put up numbers consistently. just no way around that.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jimmy Graham $30
Marcedes Lewis $6
every year i go either 2 $15ish TEs or a huge combo platter of $3-$8 guys but decided to go top shelf here this year. wanted more backup but ultimately felt that i needed jimmy to go ham if i was gonna have a chance so decided not to spend much more here. mercedes had some decent games down the stretch last year so maybe theres some value in him and he can chip in occasionally or if graham should miss a game or two.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greg Zuerlein $3
Blair Walsh $3
love this combo in best ball this year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Steelers $3
New York Jets $3
always only take 2 of each special teams. and always from the cheapest tier. i just feel like the extra money isnt that well spent here. id just much rather roll that money into another lower end WR or RB.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Rosters are loaded, you should all be good to go now.
Please take a moment to check your entry and let me know if anything is incorrect.
Live Scoring: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/
How to find your entry ID: Go to http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/mycontestteam.php - on that page there will be a link to your entry page. Click the link. The URL will be something like
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/100001.php. The six-digit number right before .php at the end is your entry ID (in this example it would be 100001). This is what you key into the form on my website to view your entry. Please let me know if you have any trouble.
If you haven't already, create a login on my site and you can link your team to your profile so you don't have to remember the six-digit ID. (You can also link up to 9 other entries to your account, in case you want to stalk some fellow FBGs or if you have friends in the contest you'd like to track, etc.)
If you have questions you can post here, or message me on the forum, or use the contact form on my site.
Please take a moment to check your entry and let me know if anything is incorrect.
Live Scoring: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/
How to find your entry ID: Go to http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/mycontestteam.php - on that page there will be a link to your entry page. Click the link. The URL will be something like
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/100001.php. The six-digit number right before .php at the end is your entry ID (in this example it would be 100001). This is what you key into the form on my website to view your entry. Please let me know if you have any trouble.
If you haven't already, create a login on my site and you can link your team to your profile so you don't have to remember the six-digit ID. (You can also link up to 9 other entries to your account, in case you want to stalk some fellow FBGs or if you have friends in the contest you'd like to track, etc.)
If you have questions you can post here, or message me on the forum, or use the contact form on my site.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Made me look.eric rymer said:
jamil
Footballguy
Been lurking and playing the contest for years, figured I would throw my thoughts in here as well.
Unlike a lot of people I don't go into the contest with a predesigned strategy for the year. I simply check the prices, and pick out a group of players that I find to be the greatest values and work my team around that. This year I found that value to be at TE, and my team is geared around that primarily. I lean towards smaller rosters, but for me that is in the low 20's. I've never felt comfortable with an 18 man roster.
QB - Jay Cutler - CHI/9 - $12
QB - Ryan Tannehill - MIA/5 - $10
QB - Blake Bortles - JAX/11 - $3
Like most I think Cutler is in for a big year and his price is too good to pass up. There are a lot of other good QB options in the price range, but I went with Tannehill because he has an early bye. I expect him to hit QB1 territory this year. Generally speaking I think a 3rd QB is wasted money, but there aren't usually QB's available for $3 who are as talented as Blake Bortles. Considering the injury risk with Cutler, I think he is a better investment than another flyer at RB or WR.
RB - DeMarco Murray - DAL/11 - $27
RB - Shane Vereen - NE/10 - $23
RB - Joique Bell - DET/9 - $21
RB - Knowshon Moreno - MIA/5 - $13
I'm not a fan of rostering a ton of cheaper backs with the hope that they emerge. I'd rather pay more for proven production and have fewer guys on the roster. The obvious risk here is on the health of Murray and Vereen. That's a risk I was willing to take as I think if healthy their production will far out produce their cost. Vereen in particular will be a monster in this format if he can stay healthy.
WR - Cordarrelle Patterson - MIN/10 - $18
WR - Emmanuel Sanders - DEN/4 - $18
WR - Justin Hunter - TEN/9 - $9
WR - Cody Latimer - DEN/4 - $6
WR - Kelvin Benjamin - CAR/12 - $5
WR - Markus Wheaton - PIT/12 - $5
WR - John Brown - ARI/4 - $3
Patterson was a must have for me at that price. I think he is a top 10 WR this year. Between Sanders and Lattimer I feel one of the two will be startable most weeks. Hunter and Benjamin are no brainers at their prices. I am not particularly wild about Wheaton or Brown, just hope they can have a few productive games at the right times.
TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/6 - $30
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/7 - $13
TE - Heath Miller - PIT/12 - $10
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/6 - $8
Graham is another no brainer IMO. Not having him puts a team at a disadvantage right away. Ertz, Miller and Kelce all immediately jumped out to me as big value picks. Between the 3 of them I am counting on filling a lot of my flex spot scoring throughout the year.
PK - Greg Zuerlein - STL/4 - $3
PK - Caleb Sturgis - MIA/5 - $3
PK - Mike Nugent - CIN/4 - $3
I wanted 3 kickers, with the earliest byes possible. I'm not concerned that two of them share a week 4 bye.
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/6 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/11 - $3
When it comes to thinking on defense I disagree with the consensus a bit, as many think that 3 defenses are necessary. Unlike kickers, a team defense can't be injured or cut. Also, I have seen little evidence that a 3rd defense increases scoring just based on the fact that it is 3rd defense. The key is finding a lower tier defense that produces at a much higher level than their cost. Now taking a 3rd defense increases the odds you may find that defense of course, but I don't think it is really necessary. I believe New Orleans is significantly underpriced (especially considering the early bye week), so I am perfectly comfortable rolling with just two defenses.
Unlike a lot of people I don't go into the contest with a predesigned strategy for the year. I simply check the prices, and pick out a group of players that I find to be the greatest values and work my team around that. This year I found that value to be at TE, and my team is geared around that primarily. I lean towards smaller rosters, but for me that is in the low 20's. I've never felt comfortable with an 18 man roster.
QB - Jay Cutler - CHI/9 - $12
QB - Ryan Tannehill - MIA/5 - $10
QB - Blake Bortles - JAX/11 - $3
Like most I think Cutler is in for a big year and his price is too good to pass up. There are a lot of other good QB options in the price range, but I went with Tannehill because he has an early bye. I expect him to hit QB1 territory this year. Generally speaking I think a 3rd QB is wasted money, but there aren't usually QB's available for $3 who are as talented as Blake Bortles. Considering the injury risk with Cutler, I think he is a better investment than another flyer at RB or WR.
RB - DeMarco Murray - DAL/11 - $27
RB - Shane Vereen - NE/10 - $23
RB - Joique Bell - DET/9 - $21
RB - Knowshon Moreno - MIA/5 - $13
I'm not a fan of rostering a ton of cheaper backs with the hope that they emerge. I'd rather pay more for proven production and have fewer guys on the roster. The obvious risk here is on the health of Murray and Vereen. That's a risk I was willing to take as I think if healthy their production will far out produce their cost. Vereen in particular will be a monster in this format if he can stay healthy.
WR - Cordarrelle Patterson - MIN/10 - $18
WR - Emmanuel Sanders - DEN/4 - $18
WR - Justin Hunter - TEN/9 - $9
WR - Cody Latimer - DEN/4 - $6
WR - Kelvin Benjamin - CAR/12 - $5
WR - Markus Wheaton - PIT/12 - $5
WR - John Brown - ARI/4 - $3
Patterson was a must have for me at that price. I think he is a top 10 WR this year. Between Sanders and Lattimer I feel one of the two will be startable most weeks. Hunter and Benjamin are no brainers at their prices. I am not particularly wild about Wheaton or Brown, just hope they can have a few productive games at the right times.
TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/6 - $30
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/7 - $13
TE - Heath Miller - PIT/12 - $10
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/6 - $8
Graham is another no brainer IMO. Not having him puts a team at a disadvantage right away. Ertz, Miller and Kelce all immediately jumped out to me as big value picks. Between the 3 of them I am counting on filling a lot of my flex spot scoring throughout the year.
PK - Greg Zuerlein - STL/4 - $3
PK - Caleb Sturgis - MIA/5 - $3
PK - Mike Nugent - CIN/4 - $3
I wanted 3 kickers, with the earliest byes possible. I'm not concerned that two of them share a week 4 bye.
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/6 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/11 - $3
When it comes to thinking on defense I disagree with the consensus a bit, as many think that 3 defenses are necessary. Unlike kickers, a team defense can't be injured or cut. Also, I have seen little evidence that a 3rd defense increases scoring just based on the fact that it is 3rd defense. The key is finding a lower tier defense that produces at a much higher level than their cost. Now taking a 3rd defense increases the odds you may find that defense of course, but I don't think it is really necessary. I believe New Orleans is significantly underpriced (especially considering the early bye week), so I am perfectly comfortable rolling with just two defenses.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Size Count
18 5667
19 1922
20 1519
21 1176
22 1015
23 744
24 542
25 459
26 331
27 253
28 219
29 177
30 279
18 5667
19 1922
20 1519
21 1176
22 1015
23 744
24 542
25 459
26 331
27 253
28 219
29 177
30 279
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This is awesome, I will be donating as well. I will wait until the end of the season because if my husband or I win some money it will be a better donation.
Why are some of the players highlighted in blue?
ScoobySnack
Footballguy
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Same here, looks good Iggy!
Jayrod
Footballguy
The most difficult thing about this contest for me is the balance between a surviving roster and a winning roster. Too often they become competing goals.
The only way to survive is to have no weeks with letdowns. The best way to mitigate that is with a bunch of players which means fewer proven studs. The only way to win is to have a group of players blow up in weeks 14-16. The best way to do that is with a bunch of studs which means fewer players.
The only way to pull both goals off is to find the diamond in the rough. They guy who blows up at the end of the season and cost much less than the other top performers. So therefore, I spend all of my time looking for potential greatness. The problem with that then becomes that most of the time a "potential" stud isn't an actual stud for a reason and they end up either waffling in mediocrity or busting out. So then you have fewer players to survive.
This contest is a beautiful mess of deep analysis, gambling and pure luck.
The only way to survive is to have no weeks with letdowns. The best way to mitigate that is with a bunch of players which means fewer proven studs. The only way to win is to have a group of players blow up in weeks 14-16. The best way to do that is with a bunch of studs which means fewer players.
The only way to pull both goals off is to find the diamond in the rough. They guy who blows up at the end of the season and cost much less than the other top performers. So therefore, I spend all of my time looking for potential greatness. The problem with that then becomes that most of the time a "potential" stud isn't an actual stud for a reason and they end up either waffling in mediocrity or busting out. So then you have fewer players to survive.
This contest is a beautiful mess of deep analysis, gambling and pure luck.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Once the live scoring begins, the players whose scores are being counted for your team (i.e. your "starters") will be highlighted in blue. Right now since all the players have a score of 0, it's just highlighting 1 QB, 2 RBs 2 WRs, etc... When I get a chance I'll work on turning off the highlighting during the week before the games start.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
This is a great post, I started to write the same thing but struggled to articulate it well enough.
I think many people get too caught up in the search for "value". While it definately plays a role, you still have to score the most points during the last 3 weeks. It really is as simple as that. It really doesn't matter how many points we score each week until then, just as long as it's enough to survive the cut and move on another week.
I've done this contest for years and learned and improved every year. The biggest thing I learned was to go for it, put a roster together to win it...not one that will "survive" for a really long time. Based on roster sizes this year, the group is also starting to learn this. Would be interested to compare the breakdown of roster size to the last 2-3 years.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
In the current format (2012/2013 - more or less)...
Teams of 22-30 are about 2.5x as likely to make the finals as teams of 18. HUGE advantage. 19-21 are in-between.
18-man: 10,152 entries * 1.10% chance of advancing = 112 finalists
19-21: 9,115 entries * 1.80% chance of advancing = 164 finalists
22-man+: 8,419 entries * 2.68% chance of advancing = 226 finalists
So even though small roster teams are (far) less likely to make the finals, you'd still expect them to win pretty often based on sheer numbers since 18-21 man rosters make up 55% of finalists.
Teams of 22-30 are about 2.5x as likely to make the finals as teams of 18. HUGE advantage. 19-21 are in-between.
18-man: 10,152 entries * 1.10% chance of advancing = 112 finalists
19-21: 9,115 entries * 1.80% chance of advancing = 164 finalists
22-man+: 8,419 entries * 2.68% chance of advancing = 226 finalists
So even though small roster teams are (far) less likely to make the finals, you'd still expect them to win pretty often based on sheer numbers since 18-21 man rosters make up 55% of finalists.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
If you go here:
http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/querier/index.php
Just scroll to the bottom, click the circle next to "Total Roster Size" and then click Submit. You'll be able to see the distribution by roster size for the past 7 years.
It doesn't look that different to me this year, it's always been heavily skewed towards the smaller rosters.
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Bankerguy
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Interesting to see Lacy as the most owned RB.I have all 3 most commonly owned TEs
Noteworthy high and low % picks:
WR Pierre Garcon 204 1.4%
QB Robert Griffin III 136 1.0%
QB Sam Bradford 69 0.5%
RB Carlos Hyde 2253 15.8%
RB Andre Williams 2026 14.2%
RB Jonathan Stewart 1948 13.6%
RB C.J. Spiller 335 2.3%
WR Kelvin Benjamin 6651 46.5%
WR Wes Welker 118 0.8%
WR Pierre Garcon 204 1.4%
QB Robert Griffin III 136 1.0%
QB Sam Bradford 69 0.5%
RB Carlos Hyde 2253 15.8%
RB Andre Williams 2026 14.2%
RB Jonathan Stewart 1948 13.6%
RB C.J. Spiller 335 2.3%
WR Kelvin Benjamin 6651 46.5%
WR Wes Welker 118 0.8%
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Obamassiah
Footballguy
So there are only 90 fewer entries than last year. Which means that the first cut won't come until Week 4, so a heavily stacked Week 4 bye week team has a great chance of advancing.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Nope. They revised the cutlines back to the 2012 levels this year:
http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/rules.php
Obamassiah
Footballguy
Jay Cutler $12 (9)
Josh McCown $8 (7)
Blake Bortles $3 (11)
In addition to following my own team every year, I've also created a "perfect" team at the end of each season that would have won it all. Every single year, with the exception of Peyton Manning's record-shattering season, I have always found 2 mid-price guys who worked at QB (in 2012 it was Ryan $19/Luck $11, and in 2011 it was Fitzpatrick $13/Newton $14). While I think that Manning will once again be the #1 QB, I decided to stick with my two mid-tier QB strategy again. Believe that Cutler will have some huge weeks with Alshon/Marshall/Forte. I'm hoping that some of the 2013 McCown magic is replicated with similar tools in TB (Martin/VJax/M Evans). Borltes as a cheap flyer was too hard to pass up.
Forte $32 (9)
Ball $29 (4)
Ingram $9 (6)
Stewart $5 (12)
From my "perfect team" exercise over the last many years, I've also found every single season that I can construct a winning team with 2 studs and 2 mid-tier guys who out-perform their price. In 2013 that was Charles $31/Forte $26/Lacy $16/Moreno $6. In 2012 that was ADP $21/Doug Martin $21/Lynch $19/Gore $19. I really wanted to add Gore and CJohnson for 4 solid starters, but couldn't make it work. Zero over-lapping Bye weeks was a must w only 4 RBs. Lacy and Martin were in many of my various rosters, but their bye weeks never worked with the rest of what I was doing.
Brandon Marshall $26 (9)
Emmanuel Sanders $18 (4)
Julian Edelman $17 (10)
Mike Evans $11 (7)
Greg Jennings $9 (10)
Kelvin Benjamin $5 (12)
Markus Wheaton $5 (12)
My perfect teams have all included 2 studs (Brown and Green since 2011) who catch a lot of passes. Paired with a few mid-tier high-floor types and a few get-lucky fliers (like the $3 Brown in 2011). I believe that my top 3 here produce good weekly numbers (w no over-lapping Bye weeks), while each of the other 4 guys will have a big week from time-to-time.
Jordan Cameron $22 (4)
Kyle Rudolph $15 (10)
Travis Kelce $8 (6)
I have Cameron and Juice ranked very close, with Cameron hauling in more catches, but Juice w more TDs. At 1.5/rec I went with Cameron. Love the early bye week too. Like many others, I bought into the Rudolph/Kelce hype. But what I've learned from my "perfect team" exercise is that I was able to compile a winning team every year without one of the top 3 priced TEs. Last year's combo of Gates $12/Cameron $12/ Juice $2 was gold. in 2012, I used Gonzo $13/H Miller $7/Pitta $5/Myers $2 on the "winning" team. I did use Graham in 2011, but he was only $15 that year. From my "winning" 2013 team, the TE position only provide a flex score 5 times, and not once after week 7. So I think there is an argument to be made against the All-Stud TE strategy. In fact, I'll probably find this year that I could have skipped Cameron and gone with somebody like Ertz and Chandler and upgraded elsewhere.
J Tucker $5 (11)
Zuerlein $3 (4)
My first time to go with only 2 kickers. Tucker because 1) I had $2 left over and 2) I'm a Longhorn homer. All of my "perfect" teams had 3 $3 kickers.
Panthers $4
Texans $4
While there's an argument for "defense is a crap shoot" I still wanted teams with big upside and lots of talent. These two have it and have different bye weeks. All of my "perfect" teams only had 2 Ds.
Josh McCown $8 (7)
Blake Bortles $3 (11)
In addition to following my own team every year, I've also created a "perfect" team at the end of each season that would have won it all. Every single year, with the exception of Peyton Manning's record-shattering season, I have always found 2 mid-price guys who worked at QB (in 2012 it was Ryan $19/Luck $11, and in 2011 it was Fitzpatrick $13/Newton $14). While I think that Manning will once again be the #1 QB, I decided to stick with my two mid-tier QB strategy again. Believe that Cutler will have some huge weeks with Alshon/Marshall/Forte. I'm hoping that some of the 2013 McCown magic is replicated with similar tools in TB (Martin/VJax/M Evans). Borltes as a cheap flyer was too hard to pass up.
Forte $32 (9)
Ball $29 (4)
Ingram $9 (6)
Stewart $5 (12)
From my "perfect team" exercise over the last many years, I've also found every single season that I can construct a winning team with 2 studs and 2 mid-tier guys who out-perform their price. In 2013 that was Charles $31/Forte $26/Lacy $16/Moreno $6. In 2012 that was ADP $21/Doug Martin $21/Lynch $19/Gore $19. I really wanted to add Gore and CJohnson for 4 solid starters, but couldn't make it work. Zero over-lapping Bye weeks was a must w only 4 RBs. Lacy and Martin were in many of my various rosters, but their bye weeks never worked with the rest of what I was doing.
Brandon Marshall $26 (9)
Emmanuel Sanders $18 (4)
Julian Edelman $17 (10)
Mike Evans $11 (7)
Greg Jennings $9 (10)
Kelvin Benjamin $5 (12)
Markus Wheaton $5 (12)
My perfect teams have all included 2 studs (Brown and Green since 2011) who catch a lot of passes. Paired with a few mid-tier high-floor types and a few get-lucky fliers (like the $3 Brown in 2011). I believe that my top 3 here produce good weekly numbers (w no over-lapping Bye weeks), while each of the other 4 guys will have a big week from time-to-time.
Jordan Cameron $22 (4)
Kyle Rudolph $15 (10)
Travis Kelce $8 (6)
I have Cameron and Juice ranked very close, with Cameron hauling in more catches, but Juice w more TDs. At 1.5/rec I went with Cameron. Love the early bye week too. Like many others, I bought into the Rudolph/Kelce hype. But what I've learned from my "perfect team" exercise is that I was able to compile a winning team every year without one of the top 3 priced TEs. Last year's combo of Gates $12/Cameron $12/ Juice $2 was gold. in 2012, I used Gonzo $13/H Miller $7/Pitta $5/Myers $2 on the "winning" team. I did use Graham in 2011, but he was only $15 that year. From my "winning" 2013 team, the TE position only provide a flex score 5 times, and not once after week 7. So I think there is an argument to be made against the All-Stud TE strategy. In fact, I'll probably find this year that I could have skipped Cameron and gone with somebody like Ertz and Chandler and upgraded elsewhere.
J Tucker $5 (11)
Zuerlein $3 (4)
My first time to go with only 2 kickers. Tucker because 1) I had $2 left over and 2) I'm a Longhorn homer. All of my "perfect" teams had 3 $3 kickers.
Panthers $4
Texans $4
While there's an argument for "defense is a crap shoot" I still wanted teams with big upside and lots of talent. These two have it and have different bye weeks. All of my "perfect" teams only had 2 Ds.
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Relative to others at the position, that's pretty high. Hyde, Williams and Stewart were 6th, 7th and 8th, respectively, in RB ownership.
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Obamassiah
Footballguy
41 David Wilson owners, huh?
To go along with 69 Bradford owners.
Was Wilson even available when this contest opened up?
First few weeks simply trim the fat. This thing doesn't really start until weeks 5-6.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
It actually doesn't start until week 14
But to be fair almost 50% will be eliminated by week 5. That is a little more than the 'fat'
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Colin Kaepernick $14
Jay Cutler $12
Ryan Fitzpatrick $5
Cutler seems like a great value and bet to have a good safe floor. Kaep could have some monster games. Like having a 3rd starter and Fitz will do that for a little bit for sure.
Marshawn Lynch $27
Rashad Jennings $23
Ray Rice $18
Lance Dunbar $10
Only 4 here, but 2 guys who should have solid holds on their job and again a very high floor Lynch and Dunbar could be great if Murray misses time.
Michael Floyd $21
Victor Cruz $21
Roddy White $19
Anquan Boldin $9
Cody Latimer $6
Floyd, Cruz, and White are all solid, consistent performers and Boldin should provide some good weeks, and Latimer could be a great play down the stretch.
Rob Gronkowski $26
Jason Witten $18
Garrett Graham $9
Gronk and Witten seemed like good values given the scoring and Graham has some very good potential as well.
Greg Zuerlein $3
Josh Brown $3
Zuerlein and Brown have both been accurate and long distance type of kickers.
Oakland Raiders $3
Washington Redskins $3
Went for good special teams play here.
Jay Cutler $12
Ryan Fitzpatrick $5
Cutler seems like a great value and bet to have a good safe floor. Kaep could have some monster games. Like having a 3rd starter and Fitz will do that for a little bit for sure.
Marshawn Lynch $27
Rashad Jennings $23
Ray Rice $18
Lance Dunbar $10
Only 4 here, but 2 guys who should have solid holds on their job and again a very high floor Lynch and Dunbar could be great if Murray misses time.
Michael Floyd $21
Victor Cruz $21
Roddy White $19
Anquan Boldin $9
Cody Latimer $6
Floyd, Cruz, and White are all solid, consistent performers and Boldin should provide some good weeks, and Latimer could be a great play down the stretch.
Rob Gronkowski $26
Jason Witten $18
Garrett Graham $9
Gronk and Witten seemed like good values given the scoring and Graham has some very good potential as well.
Greg Zuerlein $3
Josh Brown $3
Zuerlein and Brown have both been accurate and long distance type of kickers.
Oakland Raiders $3
Washington Redskins $3
Went for good special teams play here.
Steeler
Footballguy
Loading up on week 4 byes is a risk for sure. But as you alluded to, if you aren't alive at week 14 it doesn't matter if you were eliminated in week 4 or week 13.
Doug Drinen
Moderator
FUBAR
Footballguy
gotcha. I think that's about right for these guys given their prices. I took Hyde as a later in the season play, while Williams and Stew were cheap.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Here is...hero of the contest...
23 KICKER GUY!!!!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/105147.php
-QG
23 KICKER GUY!!!!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/105147.php
-QG
Steeler
Footballguy
He coulda got more kickers in the lineup if he spent less at QB.Here is...hero of the contest...
23 KICKER GUY!!!!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/105147.php
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Alas, they make you draft at least 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 TD at a minimum. He does go without a flex each week.He coulda got more kickers in the lineup if he spent less at QB.Here is...hero of the contest...
23 KICKER GUY!!!!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/105147.php
-QG
-QG
Steeler
Footballguy
Doh! I forgot about the 30 player max... this 23 kicker guy knows what he's doing with the strategy.Alas, they make you draft at least 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 TD at a minimum. He does go without a flex each week.He coulda got more kickers in the lineup if he spent less at QB.Here is...hero of the contest...
23 KICKER GUY!!!!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/105147.php
-QG
-QG
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
Not to mention he will have a tough time getting past those week 9 byes 
Beefeaters
Footballguy
Tom Brady $17
Joe Flacco $8
I think Brady will be a stud again this year, and wanted to back him up with somebody consistent that wasn't looking over his shoulder at competition.
Marshawn Lynch $27
Doug Martin $24
Mark Ingram $9
Andre Williams $7
Shonn Greene $6
Jonathan Stewart $5
Hopefully Lynch and Martin will carry this group most of the season, but there's enough hope sprinkled in with the rest of the RBs to pull some points throughout the season.
Julio Jones $25
Mike Wallace $19
Cordarrelle Patterson $18
Torrey Smith $16
Miles Austin $8
Kelvin Benjamin $5
Took a stud in Julio, and then was looking at decent value WR1 picks... of course like everyone else, I've got Benjamin.
Jimmy Graham $30
Dwayne Allen $8
Jace Amaro $3
Took me a while to come around to Graham. Then once I put him in my lineup I couldn't go back. Hopefully Allen and Amaro will cover his bye admirably.
Nate Freese $3
Graham Gano $3
Blair Walsh $3
Meh, just wanted to go cheap here.
Pittsburgh Steelers $3
New York Jets $3
Looked closely at which cheap Defenses had good match ups during the other's bye weeks. These two fit the bill.
Joe Flacco $8
I think Brady will be a stud again this year, and wanted to back him up with somebody consistent that wasn't looking over his shoulder at competition.
Marshawn Lynch $27
Doug Martin $24
Mark Ingram $9
Andre Williams $7
Shonn Greene $6
Jonathan Stewart $5
Hopefully Lynch and Martin will carry this group most of the season, but there's enough hope sprinkled in with the rest of the RBs to pull some points throughout the season.
Julio Jones $25
Mike Wallace $19
Cordarrelle Patterson $18
Torrey Smith $16
Miles Austin $8
Kelvin Benjamin $5
Took a stud in Julio, and then was looking at decent value WR1 picks... of course like everyone else, I've got Benjamin.
Jimmy Graham $30
Dwayne Allen $8
Jace Amaro $3
Took me a while to come around to Graham. Then once I put him in my lineup I couldn't go back. Hopefully Allen and Amaro will cover his bye admirably.
Nate Freese $3
Graham Gano $3
Blair Walsh $3
Meh, just wanted to go cheap here.
Pittsburgh Steelers $3
New York Jets $3
Looked closely at which cheap Defenses had good match ups during the other's bye weeks. These two fit the bill.
def agree with this. gronk is a no brainer over graham. hes more productive and cheaper. take both if you want, but if you only want one, its gotta be gronk.
the graham that i like, is garrett. he put up 545 and 5 in 12 games last yr. ill take it for 9 bucks. oh and take kelce for 8 too. could be the latest break out te.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Bamac
Footballguy
And can you flex two TEs?
I think I agree with msudaisy here. The 1.5 PPR isn't an advantage to TE's, it just levels the playing field to put them on par with RB's and WR's. It isn't necessary to have a stud TE. Just like it isn't necessary to have a stud QB, or RB or WR.
ETA: In fact I'd rather have a WR that catches 6 balls than a TE that catches 4. In terms of reception points you're equal, but the WR has two more catches which probably means more yards and better chance of a TD.
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