2015 Survivor Pool Discussion - Week 2 was Black Sunday! (1 Viewer)

[Interseptopus]

Now is the fun part of year where you need to map out your future picks to see your options. For me, STL the best pick remaining, but also have them slotted for wk 10 vs CHI. Could use CIN vs HOU that week, but that leaves me relying on IND vs TB rather than CIN vs STL in Week 12. Had ATL slotted for this week, but agreed with the comments above that they have fallen off from their hot start, plus it is a division game in the NFC South, which always seems to have wacky outcomes. On the flip side, their last two weeks have been on the road, where I am always loathe to take them, so maybe a little home cookin' gets them back on track.

If you have them, NE and ARI are the standouts. Probably will toggle between ATL and STL all week here.

For me:Week 8 STL @ CLE

Week 8 is SF @ Stl just so people don't get confused

Dammit. Yes. Fixed

 

[fantasy stud]

Week 8 St. Louis

Week 9- jets at home against Jax

Week 10 bengals home against Texans

Week 11-Seahawks at home against 49ers or panthers home against redskins

Week 12- I have no clue ! Seems really difficult for me

 

[hwjchim]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

 

[Interseptopus]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

Why wouldn't you go with Arizona? IMO this is the last viable week to play ARI. Look at their schedule. Week 12 is the only week left that I would consider playing them and 1) will you need to make it that far, and 2) there are a lot of good teams to choose week 12 (gb, ind, phi)Seattle is so over rated... They've beaten three dumpster teams and lost the rest of their games to playoff caliber teams. Meanwhile Dallas has been staying in games against playoff teams without two pro bowl caliber offensive players and a mess at RB.

 

[Interseptopus]

Week 8 St. Louis

Week 9- jets at home against Jax

Week 10 bengals home against Texans

Week 11-Seahawks at home against 49ers or panthers home against redskins

Week 12- I have no clue ! Seems really difficult for me

I like your thinking. I was considering CIN week 9 but NYJ is a very good play. And saving CIN for week 10.

 

[hwjchim]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

Why wouldn't you go with Arizona? IMO this is the last viable week to play ARI. Look at their schedule. Week 12 is the only week left that I would consider playing them and 1) will you need to make it that far, and 2) there are a lot of good teams to choose week 12 (gb, ind, phi)Seattle is so over rated... They've beaten three dumpster teams and lost the rest of their games to playoff caliber teams. Meanwhile Dallas has been staying in games against playoff teams without two pro bowl caliber offensive players and a mess at RB.

Yeah I was thinking that too but the west coast team traveling to east coast and playing the early game...idk that keeps me away from AZ

but might make a change to them though.

Thanks.

 

[Interseptopus]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

Why wouldn't you go with Arizona? IMO this is the last viable week to play ARI. Look at their schedule. Week 12 is the only week left that I would consider playing them and 1) will you need to make it that far, and 2) there are a lot of good teams to choose week 12 (gb, ind, phi)Seattle is so over rated... They've beaten three dumpster teams and lost the rest of their games to playoff caliber teams. Meanwhile Dallas has been staying in games against playoff teams without two pro bowl caliber offensive players and a mess at RB.

Yeah I was thinking that too but the west coast team traveling to east coast and playing the early game...idk that keeps me away from AZbut might make a change to them though.

Thanks.

Good point. AZ didn't look great vs Baltimore last Monday and this is a similar trip... Tough decision I guess if you take my bias POV on Seattle out

 

[Deamon]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

Why wouldn't you go with Arizona? IMO this is the last viable week to play ARI. Look at their schedule. Week 12 is the only week left that I would consider playing them and 1) will you need to make it that far, and 2) there are a lot of good teams to choose week 12 (gb, ind, phi)Seattle is so over rated... They've beaten three dumpster teams and lost the rest of their games to playoff caliber teams. Meanwhile Dallas has been staying in games against playoff teams without two pro bowl caliber offensive players and a mess at RB.

How are they being over rated? If anything they're under rated. They haven't really played anyone middle ground to see how good they are. I know their wins were vs poor teams, but have you ever seen a team have their last 3 losses vs better teams? (Combined record of 18-0)

 

[SanDawg]

Atlanta, Arizona and Sea here.....only home team here is Atlanta so strongly leaning this way with Arizona close but coming of a Monday night game and travel east gives me reservations.

 

[Interseptopus]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

Why wouldn't you go with Arizona? IMO this is the last viable week to play ARI. Look at their schedule. Week 12 is the only week left that I would consider playing them and 1) will you need to make it that far, and 2) there are a lot of good teams to choose week 12 (gb, ind, phi)Seattle is so over rated... They've beaten three dumpster teams and lost the rest of their games to playoff caliber teams. Meanwhile Dallas has been staying in games against playoff teams without two pro bowl caliber offensive players and a mess at RB.

How are they being over rated? If anything they're under rated. They haven't really played anyone middle ground to see how good they are. I know their wins were vs poor teams, but have you ever seen a team have their last 3 losses vs better teams? (Combined record of 18-0)

They are overrated in the opinion of people in this thread. Yes, I'd say their record is not indicative of how good or bad they are as they haven't played middle of the road teams, but people are picking them as if they are the same team they were 1-2 years ago.

They barely beat Detroit, one of the worst teams in the first 1/2 of the season. They lost to four playoff teams, and their best win came off of what would be described as one of the other worst teams in the nfl for the first 1/2 of the season.

Honestly I don't see Seattle as a playoff team this year, and people are picking them as if they are. The four teams Seattle lost to I wouldn't hesitate picking to beat Dallas this week. But for some reason a lot of people feel like Seattle is the best pick for the, this week in a survivor pool. I think this game is likely one Dallas may win. Seattle is not very good and is playing a team getting their top WR back, OL looks like they're finally clicking, and a RB coming off his best game of the season. The only negative I can see is their QB did not look good one week after being named the starter, but I imagine he could only benefit from a second week of practice

 

[hwjchim]

Just like I said I might do...I made last second switch to go with Arizona.

Hope it doesn't come back and haunt me.

GLTA

 

[Deamon]

Going with Seattle this week against Dallas.

Been thinking bout Arizona (@Cle) but will see if I make a last minute change.

Why wouldn't you go with Arizona? IMO this is the last viable week to play ARI. Look at their schedule. Week 12 is the only week left that I would consider playing them and 1) will you need to make it that far, and 2) there are a lot of good teams to choose week 12 (gb, ind, phi)Seattle is so over rated... They've beaten three dumpster teams and lost the rest of their games to playoff caliber teams. Meanwhile Dallas has been staying in games against playoff teams without two pro bowl caliber offensive players and a mess at RB.

How are they being over rated? If anything they're under rated. They haven't really played anyone middle ground to see how good they are. I know their wins were vs poor teams, but have you ever seen a team have their last 3 losses vs better teams? (Combined record of 18-0)

They are overrated in the opinion of people in this thread. Yes, I'd say their record is not indicative of how good or bad they are as they haven't played middle of the road teams, but people are picking them as if they are the same team they were 1-2 years ago.

They barely beat Detroit, one of the worst teams in the first 1/2 of the season. They lost to four playoff teams, and their best win came off of what would be described as one of the other worst teams in the nfl for the first 1/2 of the season.

Honestly I don't see Seattle as a playoff team this year, and people are picking them as if they are. The four teams Seattle lost to I wouldn't hesitate picking to beat Dallas this week. But for some reason a lot of people feel like Seattle is the best pick for the, this week in a survivor pool. I think this game is likely one Dallas may win. Seattle is not very good and is playing a team getting their top WR back, OL looks like they're finally clicking, and a RB coming off his best game of the season. The only negative I can see is their QB did not look good one week after being named the starter, but I imagine he could only benefit from a second week of practice

I think people picking them is more based on Dallas then Seattle. Seattle is likely not a contender this year, but not a 6 win team either. They should win 9 games still. That being said, Dallas is awful right now. They can't win without Tony. I dont think they are a bad survivor pick at all.

 

[Interseptopus]

Started our shaky but STL finished them well. TB winning was huge for me... Knocked out 3/7 still left. Four of us advance... One picked Carolina which I'm not sure where that's coming from. Hopefully Indy beats them so we are down to three.

 

[Interseptopus]

I should have taken stl! And Az next week... Clevelands looked up and down though. We will see...

Assuming I make it through tonight, here are my thoughts for this upcoming week.

I know I’m feeling the pinch of taking some rather more obvious picks in recent weeks, makes this week tough.

NE vs MIA: This is a great game to pick if for some reason you still have NE left. Miami looks better however, but NE looks unstoppable

SEA @ DAL: Dallas, somehow, is staying in games with such terrible QB play. They have played better than their record shows. SEA on the other hand has played worse than their record shows- beating 3 bad teams and losing to three playoff caliber teams. This game is available for me to pick, but it’s a tough one to pull the trigger on.

ARI @ CLE: This is a great pick if you still have ARI left. McCown could be out. Of,you have AZ I think you have to take this game.

STL vs SF: This may be the game I pick… but I hate picking divisional games. STL looks great with Gurley and SF is not looking good at all. I can't imagine SF winning this game with how good STL played

ATL vs TB: I don’t know many people with ATL left, but if you do I think this is a lock

KC vs DET: Stafford might have a broken hand. KC looked better last week. DET is just plain bad. Not sure I like this one much but if you're in a bind...

OAK vs NYJ: This seems like a tough game to pick but Oakland, I feel, is much better than people give them credit for. NY has a great defense however. Again, another tough one to pick. I'm kind of reaching at games based on the spread.

Any other games?

At the end of the day, off this list at least, I’m stuck with SEA or STL. I’m liking STL the most out of that list. If I can just get through week 8 I feel like I have a legitimate shot at taking the whole thing as I've got some decent teams left, especially gb

Were you suggesting picking Oakland or the Jets? The former is absolutely crazy, the latter is just ill-advised. I think NY probably wins, but I'd be loath to pick against Oakland this year. They've probably bounced more people from survivor pools than any other team.

Finally, are you seriously suggesting that anyone pick KC in a survivor pool?

I knot the jets game is still going on but so far both of those looked like okay advice. Not one I'd put my survivor status on unless I had to, but just thought I'd toot my own horn.

 

[hwjchim]

Started our shaky but STL finished them well. TB winning was huge for me... Knocked out 3/7 still left. Four of us advance... One picked Carolina which I'm not sure where that's coming from. Hopefully Indy beats them so we are down to three.

nice.

alot picked ATL as well so the TB win was big.

 

[Interseptopus]

WEEK 9:

Most of us seemed to move on to next week, so here's my breakdown of the match ups:

NE vs WAS: I feel like New England is going to lose a game like this someday, but they have the highest spread this week and rightfully so. I'd imagine almost everyone has used them. If not this could be a good week

ATL vs SF: Again, most people have used ATL but if not this would be a week to consider it

SD vs CHI: San Diego could be a decent play this week. Rivers looks great, but Chicago just lost a "heartbreaker" and I always have a weird feeling picking anyone who just won or lost an emotional game at the end.

NYJ vs JAX: NYJ doesn't pose much value after this week. Defensively they are very good and just got handled by Oakland. I'd imagine they'd be motivated to rebound against Jacksonville

CIN vs CLE: Another divisional game. At first glance I was really liking this matchup but I think I'm going to avoid. I think a good amount of people will pick this one in my league

NO vs TEN: This one is available to me. I can't imagine New Orleans losing this game after putting up that many points. But I'm a little gun shy picking them after they lost week 2.

PIT vs OAK: If anyone's read my posts here they probably know two things, I do not like Seattle much this season and I am high on Oakland. Pit coming off an emotional loss at home, lost Bell... Just adds up to a tough game to pick. I'd avoid but it's near the top in spread so I bring it up here

As for me, I've used NE, ARI, SD.

I'm torn between NYJ and NO, leaning towards NO as they don't hold much future value, and Jacksonville isn't awful. I think the jets will win but I feel like TEN will be an easier win. I could pick the jets week 14 if I make it that far. Interested to hear other opinions...

 

[tangfoot]

ARI vs SF: divisional game but SF is that bad. Again, most people have used ARI but if not this would be a week to consider it

This should be ATL vs SF. ARI is on bye.

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

Now is the fun part of year where you need to map out your future picks to see your options. For me, STL the best pick remaining, but also have them slotted for wk 10 vs CHI. Could use CIN vs HOU that week, but that leaves me relying on IND vs TB rather than CIN vs STL in Week 12. Had ATL slotted for this week, but agreed with the comments above that they have fallen off from their hot start, plus it is a division game in the NFC South, which always seems to have wacky outcomes. On the flip side, their last two weeks have been on the road, where I am always loathe to take them, so maybe a little home cookin' gets them back on track.

If you have them, NE and ARI are the standouts. Probably will toggle between ATL and STL all week here.

For me:Week 8 STL @ CLE

Week 9 CIN vs CLE... Or considering saving CIN and taking NYJ over JAX but JAX looks good

Week 10 GB vs DET or CIN over HOU

Week 11 Sea vs SF or PHI vs TB or GB over MIN (that's away for gb though and min is tough at home)

Week 12 IND vs TB or GB over CHI

To be honest I'm not sure I will need to make it to week 12. This might be over for me week 10 or 11. I'm pretty sure when I have to play GB that'll be my victory... Everyone else has used them

Here is my path:

Wk 8: ATL v TB (division game, but next best option (STL v SF) is the same)
Wk 9: SD v CHI (CIN v CLE division game; NYJ used)
Wk 10: STL v CHI (another reason to save STL); GB used
Wk 11: CAR v WSH or PHL v TB
Wk 12:IND v TB or CIN v STL

235 left in the pool, so not sure if it goes this far. Starting week 13, depending on number of entries alive, they start double picks. All bets are off there, so hoping the winner (me... ) emerges sooner than that

Good luck to the rest of you...f'n TB torpedoed me

 

[hwjchim]

WEEK 9:

Most of us seemed to move on to next week, so here's my breakdown of the match ups:

NE vs WAS: I feel like New England is going to lose a game like this someday, but they have the highest spread this week and rightfully so. I'd imagine almost everyone has used them. If not this could be a good week

ATL vs SF: Again, most people have used ATL but if not this would be a week to consider it

SD vs CHI: San Diego could be a decent play this week. Rivers looks great, but Chicago just lost a "heartbreaker" and I always have a weird feeling picking anyone who just won or lost an emotional game at the end.

NYJ vs JAX: NYJ doesn't pose much value after this week. Defensively they are very good and just got handled by Oakland. I'd imagine they'd be motivated to rebound against Jacksonville

CIN vs CLE: Another divisional game. At first glance I was really liking this matchup but I think I'm going to avoid. I think a good amount of people will pick this one in my league

NO vs TEN: This one is available to me. I can't imagine New Orleans losing this game after putting up that many points. But I'm a little gun shy picking them after they lost week 2.

PIT vs OAK: If anyone's read my posts here they probably know two things, I do not like Seattle much this season and I am high on Oakland. Pit coming off an emotional loss at home, lost Bell... Just adds up to a tough game to pick. I'd avoid but it's near the top in spread so I bring it up here

As for me, I've used NE, ARI, SD.

I'm torn between NYJ and NO, leaning towards NO as they don't hold much future value, and Jacksonville isn't awful. I think the jets will win but I feel like TEN will be an easier win. I could pick the jets week 14 if I make it that far. Interested to hear other opinions...

Nice write up. I'm in a 2nd chance pool so trying to stay alive. I try to avoid divisional games and try to pick home teams. Obviously Arizona this past week was the exception.

I've used

AZ, STL, NYJ, ATL so far.

This week I'm thinking the easy choice NE vs. Was as well but after looking through their schedule, I'm thinking of saving them for week 14 vs Hou.

In doing so, that'll leave me with:

New Orleans vs. Ten

Den vs. Indy...@Indy

I'm more than likely go with NO vs. Ten since they are at home. Saints usually play good and win..MOST of the time at home (week 2 was different. Possibly Brees' injury had something to do with it?)

Den vs. Indy - this is:

1. An away game

2. Manning going back home to Indy so maybe Indy plays their heart out (well it doesn't look like that right now as they are playing MNF terribly)

But then if I don't use Den here, the only other week I feel that I can/should use them is week 11 vs. Chicago. However that will be outdoors in Chicago and what's the weather going to be like? Again, I try to avoid divisional games so I might not get to use them again?

(Denver's remaining schedule: @Ind, KC, @Chi, NE, @SD, Oak, @Pit, Cin, SD - Weeks 16/17 who knows if they remain undefeated they give rest to some of their starters? Who knows)

So after all that writing, this week is most likely NO for me.

This is what my remaining picks look like...as of now:

week 9: @NO vs. Ten

week 10: @Cin vs. Hou
week 11: @Car vs. Was
week 12: @Phi vs. Det
week 13: @Pitt vs. Ind
week 14: NE vs @ Hou <-- NE on the road ? I'll take that
week 15: @ Sea vs. Cle
week 16: @Buff vs. Dal
week 17: @Hou vs. Jax or @Chi vs. Det <-- division week so hopefully I don't have to use this week. All the good teams this week might be resting their starters so not sure at all who to take.

Hm, where do I use GB? week 10 @home vs. Det? Hm, again Division game.

 

[fantasy stud]

WEEK 9:

Most of us seemed to move on to next week, so here's my breakdown of the match ups:

NE vs WAS: I feel like New England is going to lose a game like this someday, but they have the highest spread this week and rightfully so. I'd imagine almost everyone has used them. If not this could be a good week

ATL vs SF: Again, most people have used ATL but if not this would be a week to consider it

SD vs CHI: San Diego could be a decent play this week. Rivers looks great, but Chicago just lost a "heartbreaker" and I always have a weird feeling picking anyone who just won or lost an emotional game at the end.

NYJ vs JAX: NYJ doesn't pose much value after this week. Defensively they are very good and just got handled by Oakland. I'd imagine they'd be motivated to rebound against Jacksonville

CIN vs CLE: Another divisional game. At first glance I was really liking this matchup but I think I'm going to avoid. I think a good amount of people will pick this one in my league

NO vs TEN: This one is available to me. I can't imagine New Orleans losing this game after putting up that many points. But I'm a little gun shy picking them after they lost week 2.

PIT vs OAK: If anyone's read my posts here they probably know two things, I do not like Seattle much this season and I am high on Oakland. Pit coming off an emotional loss at home, lost Bell... Just adds up to a tough game to pick. I'd avoid but it's near the top in spread so I bring it up here

As for me, I've used NE, ARI, SD.

I'm torn between NYJ and NO, leaning towards NO as they don't hold much future value, and Jacksonville isn't awful. I think the jets will win but I feel like TEN will be an easier win. I could pick the jets week 14 if I make it that far. Interested to hear other opinions...

I was all in on the jets this week, but not anymore with their awful qb situation. My favorite 2 match ups now are Atlanta at San Francisco. I almost religiously go with home teams. However, the niners are a dumpster fire . They have zero legitimate running backs, kaeperneck regresses weekly, and they just traded Davis. The Falcons are coming off a bad loss and you have to assume they will be hungry to avenge it.

My second choice is Cleveland at cincy. Cleveland is heading in the wrong direction . They have no running game and their starting qb is beat up going into a short week. Cincy d will put all kinds of pressure on them and the bengals abundance of offensive weapons will be too much for the Browns match.

Besides the jets, I would be careful taking the Chargers . The Bears have been way better than expected and the Chargers just aren't very good.

 

[Interseptopus]

I like the comments I think I'm going NO vs TEN. If they lose that game is deserve to be out,,,

My next few weeks

9- NO vs TEN

10- DEN vs KC or CIN vs HOU

11- SEA vs SF or DEN @ CHI

12- GB vs CHI, divisional but Chicago has won once in the last 9-10 seasons vs GB and Forte could be out for a while... Or PHI @ DET.

I not really sure my season goes beyond this, 4 of us left and the chances of two of us making it past week 12 is not real likely. Most of my opponent have used NO, DEN, GB, SEA already. So I will likely change my pick based off what I need. I'd love to pick CIN week 10 but I'd like to save them for 13 or 15... Will I need to? We will see. Week 9 is a little dicey aside from NO IMO

 

[tangfoot]

I just went through and mapped out the rest of the season.

Here's the tentative schedule

9 - @NO vs TEN

10 - @CIN vs HOU (this one has me leery due to Dalton's performance in night games. Could change to @DEN vs KC)

11 - @NE vs BUF

12 - @GB vs CHI

13 - @BUF vs HOU

14 - @StL vs DET

15 - @MIN vs CHI

16 - @OAK vs SD

17 - @DAL vs WAS (as long as Dallas is still fighting for a playoff berth)

 

[zftcg]

Deciding between CIN vs CLE and NYJ vs Jax. I've said upthread that my goal this year is to try not to pick a lesser team just to preserve options for future weeks, so on that basis, I'm leaning Cinci. Would love to keep them for next week vs Houston, but I don't want to risk it. What happens if Fitz is ineffective and/or reinjures his hand?

 

[shady inc]

I would like New Orleans, but it sounds like Mariota is playing instead of Mett. However, the Saints are still under consideration

Atlanta seems like a solid bet, but don't like them on the road outdoors. However, the Falcons are still under consideration.

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

Deciding between these three I think.

 

[tangfoot]

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

JFF starting makes me lean heavily toward Cincy.

 

[Interseptopus]

I would like New Orleans, but it sounds like Mariota is playing instead of Mett. However, the Saints are still under consideration

Atlanta seems like a solid bet, but don't like them on the road outdoors. However, the Falcons are still under consideration.

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

Deciding between these three I think.

I wouldn't think Mariota pushes TEN over the top of NO at NO. Of course I'm biased bc I am picking NO and hoping they win. Of course Mett would be way better for NO. There's just too much at stake for NO, I can't see them crapping the bed on this one.

CLE/CIN makes me nervous. I'm guessing mostly everyone is picking them and at the off chance CLE plays well and beats them I don't want to be with the masses. I'm actually kind of hoping for that

Atlanta is a great pick I think, especially after a tough loss vs TB you can bet they will probably come out making sure they win.

I'm still going with NO. Unless Brees is hurt there's not much that could make me change my mind otherwise.

 

[zftcg]

I would like New Orleans, but it sounds like Mariota is playing instead of Mett. However, the Saints are still under consideration

Atlanta seems like a solid bet, but don't like them on the road outdoors. However, the Falcons are still under consideration.

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

Deciding between these three I think.

As opposed to Sundays and Mondays, which only have one predetermined outcome?

 

[shady inc]

I would like New Orleans, but it sounds like Mariota is playing instead of Mett. However, the Saints are still under consideration

Atlanta seems like a solid bet, but don't like them on the road outdoors. However, the Falcons are still under consideration.

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

Deciding between these three I think.

As opposed to Sundays and Mondays, which only have one predetermined outcome?

Have you watched a Thursday night game before?

 

[zftcg]

I would like New Orleans, but it sounds like Mariota is playing instead of Mett. However, the Saints are still under consideration

Atlanta seems like a solid bet, but don't like them on the road outdoors. However, the Falcons are still under consideration.

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

Deciding between these three I think.

As opposed to Sundays and Mondays, which only have one predetermined outcome?

Have you watched a Thursday night game before?

Which TNF result this year would you say fits the "anything can happen" description? I think KC was favored over Denver, but in retrospect we know that was wrong. Baltimore-Pittsburgh is always a close matchup. Closest I can think of is NO beating Atlanta, but again, that seems less surprising given how those two teams have fared in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, we've seen heavy favorites like the Giants, Seattle and NE take care of business.

I'm too lazy to do a full-on quantitative analysis, but I would be very surprised if the numbers showed that underdogs did significantly better on Thursday games than on other days.

 

[shady inc]

I would like New Orleans, but it sounds like Mariota is playing instead of Mett. However, the Saints are still under consideration

Atlanta seems like a solid bet, but don't like them on the road outdoors. However, the Falcons are still under consideration.

Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite of the week, but anything can happen on Thursday night. However, the Bengals are still under consideration.

Deciding between these three I think.

As opposed to Sundays and Mondays, which only have one predetermined outcome?

Have you watched a Thursday night game before?

Which TNF result this year would you say fits the "anything can happen" description? I think KC was favored over Denver, but in retrospect we know that was wrong. Baltimore-Pittsburgh is always a close matchup. Closest I can think of is NO beating Atlanta, but again, that seems less surprising given how those two teams have fared in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, we've seen heavy favorites like the Giants, Seattle and NE take care of business.

I'm too lazy to do a full-on quantitative analysis, but I would be very surprised if the numbers showed that underdogs did significantly better on Thursday games than on other days.

i should have picked Cincinnati

 

[fantasy stud]

Took Cincy and now I can enjoy the weekend!

 

[jbz]

What do your pools do if the last remaining survivors all pick the same team and that team loses?

 

[zftcg]

What do your pools do if the last remaining survivors all pick the same team and that team loses?

I've never actually made it far enough to find out, but I would assume you either split the pot or give everyone a mulligan.

 

[Interseptopus]

:(

I don't know why this is bothering me so much... Probably because I was so close to winning!

Good luck to the rest of you. I'll be back next year...

Should have taken cinci like everyone else left lol...

 

[hwjchim]

:(

I don't know why this is bothering me so much... Probably because I was so close to winning!

Good luck to the rest of you. I'll be back next year...

Should have taken cinci like everyone else left lol...

Well NO does it again. With their loss, they took out like 50+ entries...including me.

I should've stuck with my gut and taken my first game.

Sighs.

GL to the rest too.

 

[shady inc]

out on New Orleans too. Only 6 left in my pool out of 400. See ya'll next year

 

[fantasy stud]

All right, this week is killing me. Originally, I was going Pittsburgh at home against Cleveland . No Big Ben makes it less of a lock. Then, I was eyeing Denver home against Kansas City . Denvers defense looking a little less dominant after last week and without Talib and ware. I'm thinking about the Ravens at home against the jags. Only problem is the Ravens secondary is awful !!! What does everybody else thinking ?

 

[zftcg]

All right, this week is killing me. Originally, I was going Pittsburgh at home against Cleveland . No Big Ben makes it less of a lock. Then, I was eyeing Denver home against Kansas City . Denvers defense looking a little less dominant after last week and without Talib and ware. I'm thinking about the Ravens at home against the jags. Only problem is the Ravens secondary is awful !!! What does everybody else thinking ?

I posted last week about how I was tempted to take the Jets so that I could preserve Cinci for this week against Houston, but I ultimately decided to take it week by week and make the safest play.

Well, this is the week that comes back to bite me in the ###. Not a lot of great options left. Like you, I'm deciding between Denver and Pittsburgh, with Philly an outside possibility.

You do not want to be picking Baltimore at this point in the season. How much more evidence do we need that they're just bad?

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

 

[tangfoot]

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

I cannot abide taking a division game, especially now that Denver has been "exposed" and KC can climb back into the thick of it with a win.

 

[fantasy stud]

I went with Pittsburgh. I thought about Philly, but I need them Thanksgiving week where I feel forced to use them at Detroit. Cleveland has been on a downward spiral, they are bad on the road, and the Steelers have shown the ability to win at home without Big Ben especially that Arizona game. More importantly, their defense was very good at home against Cincy and Arizona recently. So, combine a solid defense against a one dimensional at best Browns offense, I feel decent about Pittsburgh.

Not liking reports that Manning is beat up, I sense that KC pass rush getting to him and some turnovers happening.

 

[zftcg]

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

I cannot abide taking a division game, especially now that Denver has been "exposed" and KC can climb back into the thick of it with a win.

Just curious: Are there any stats about division games being more hospitable to underdogs?

 

[tangfoot]

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

I cannot abide taking a division game, especially now that Denver has been "exposed" and KC can climb back into the thick of it with a win.

Just curious: Are there any stats about division games being more hospitable to underdogs?

Week 9: no road underdog won outright. Divisional road teams were 1-2 overall.

Week 8: 1-0 outright. The only road favorite won outright, and CIN@PIT was a pickem and CIN won.

Week 7: divisional road underdogs were 2-2 outright. Divisional road teams were 3-2 overall.

Week 6: divisional road underdogs were 1-2 outright. Divisional road teams were 1-3 overall.

 

[zftcg]

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

I cannot abide taking a division game, especially now that Denver has been "exposed" and KC can climb back into the thick of it with a win.

Just curious: Are there any stats about division games being more hospitable to underdogs?

Week 9: no road underdog won outright. Divisional road teams were 1-2 overall.

Week 8: 1-0 outright. The only road favorite won outright, and CIN@PIT was a pickem and CIN won.

Week 7: divisional road underdogs were 2-2 outright. Divisional road teams were 3-2 overall.

Week 6: divisional road underdogs were 1-2 outright. Divisional road teams were 1-3 overall.

Well, I was thinking more at scale, e.g., "League-wide, since the current divisional structure was implemented in 2002, underdogs have won X% of games. Divisional underdogs, meanwhile, have won Y%."

My guess is that X and Y aren't all that far apart, but I don't know.

 

[tangfoot]

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

I cannot abide taking a division game, especially now that Denver has been "exposed" and KC can climb back into the thick of it with a win.

Just curious: Are there any stats about division games being more hospitable to underdogs?

Week 9: no road underdog won outright. Divisional road teams were 1-2 overall.

Week 8: 1-0 outright. The only road favorite won outright, and CIN@PIT was a pickem and CIN won.

Week 7: divisional road underdogs were 2-2 outright. Divisional road teams were 3-2 overall.

Week 6: divisional road underdogs were 1-2 outright. Divisional road teams were 1-3 overall.

Well, I was thinking more at scale, e.g., "League-wide, since the current divisional structure was implemented in 2002, underdogs have won X% of games. Divisional underdogs, meanwhile, have won Y%."

My guess is that X and Y aren't all that far apart, but I don't know.

Finding out the number of road underdogs who have won historically should be fairly easy. Finding out which of those were division games probably wouldn't be so easy. I have no idea where to look for those kinds of stats.

 

[tangfoot]

Overall, I think Denver is the safest play. Maybe their D got exposed a bit last week, but is Alex Smith really the guy who can make them pay?

I cannot abide taking a division game, especially now that Denver has been "exposed" and KC can climb back into the thick of it with a win.

Just curious: Are there any stats about division games being more hospitable to underdogs?

This week Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City and Arizona won road division games as underdogs.

Cleveland lost.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wow, brutal week. This might have been worse than week 2.

 

[TeeDub]

Did everyone get knocked out last weekend? Lol

 

[billrob]

It's heads up me and another guy.

I've got both Carolina and Atlanta left, both seem like solid picks this week.

He's used Atlanta so he has to go Carolina unless he goes off the grid with another pick.

Deciding whether I go with Carolina with him and sort it out next week, or pick Atlanta and become an Indy fan for the day.

I also really like Jacksonville tonight.

 

[fantasy stud]

I went with Pittsburgh. I thought about Philly, but I need them Thanksgiving week where I feel forced to use them at Detroit. Cleveland has been on a downward spiral, they are bad on the road, and the Steelers have shown the ability to win at home without Big Ben especially that Arizona game. More importantly, their defense was very good at home against Cincy and Arizona recently. So, combine a solid defense against a one dimensional at best Browns offense, I feel decent about Pittsburgh.

Not liking reports that Manning is beat up, I sense that KC pass rush getting to him and some turnovers happening.

Glad I went Pittsburgh. We started last week with 22 and are now down to 4. I'm going Carolina at home against Washington. Washington winless on the road. @ of us have Carolina and two have Seattle.Next week is the tough one.

 

[billrob]

Who's still alive in their survivor pool?

I'm still head to head with the other last man standing after we both took Carolina.

Week 12 is a complete toss-up I feel.

I could go with Atlanta at home to Minny, but they've been nothing to write home about lately.

Houston at home to New Orleans? Yuk.

Jacksonville at home to San Diego? Yuk.

KC home to Buffalo might be the way to go, big letdown for the Bills losing to the Pats and on a short week.

Jets at home to Miami?

Actually considering the Browns on MNF at home to the Ravens who are a complete mees. But do I put my season on the Browns shoulders?