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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

TheWinz said:
Trying to break down the D position here, so bear with me.  This is certainly open for discussion, and I am hoping for some feedback on my thought process.  First, let me just say, 16 of last year's top 25 finishers had only 2 D's.  Eight teams carried 3, and one had 4.

For this year's contest, sacks are 1 point, and turnovers (INT & fumble recovery) are 2 points.  Obviously, TD's are 6 points, but are very hard to predict.  For all the ways for a D to score points, which one is the easiest to predict?  For me, it's sacks, followed by interceptions.  All other D points can vary wildly from game to game, and year to year.  In 2017, there were only 6 teams that finished in the top 10 in both sacks and INT's.

I'm a firm believer that history repeats itself, as long as the status quo remains the same.  In regards to D's, that obviously means player personnel.  With that in mind, I have chosen to roster just 2 defenses, totaling $9.

Thoughts?
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I'm also curious about defensive team strategy, but just to start out, don't ever do the bolded. 64% of the top 25 teams may have had 2 defenses, but what if 80% of contest entries had 2 defenses? If that was the case (I haven't queried), then it would seem 2D is not actually a good strategy. You really need to look at the contest as a whole rather than trying to work backwards, because the different roster constructions are not equally represented within the contest and there is strength in numbers when it comes to survival contests. Same thing comes up with 18-20 man rosters vs. 28-30. I'm pretty sure 28-30 has a much better survival rate but 18-20 is vastly more popular so you typically see more of them at the end of the contest. 

Personally, I've always felt drawn to quantity over quality with defenses (and kickers). One defensive TD is worth more than 5 sacks. Like you said, those are hard to predict, so I'd rather just have 3-4 cheap defenses than 2 mid-priced options. Kickers are similarly unpredictable so I try to get 3 of them.

 
So I guess the obvious question...I guess Alfred Morris isn't available?  Seems like they should update the list, but I get it, others have already submitted and might not look at it again so it's not fair.

 
Ok finally have my final lineup minus one player. After much hesitation I dropped Gurley and am rolling with CMC, Howard and Collins. I just need a 4th cheapo for ~10. Had Barber in there for a while but worried he may not be starting when it counts at the end of the year. Tempted to put Breida in for 8 but who knows if they bring someone else in. I kinda like White for 9. Or roll the dice and grab something like Conner and Gallman for the Home run. Decisions, decisions. 

 
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SeniorVBDStudent said:
dumb question: how do I see 2017 data on calcomatic.com?
Click to expand...
Not a dumb question because the answer is you can't do it.   Calcomatic truly is for real-time viewing of the scores for the FBG contest - I don't keep any historical data.

 
sooted72 said:
lol wat.  this is like the greatest wr/rb value year of all time
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I’m aware.  But what $4 RB is likely to outscore Gordon/Barkley/McCaffrey/Freeman? And is a $4 WR 11th WR really going to make a big difference for me?  If you’re going to say I should upgrade, I prefer the WRs at 5-7$ more than the ones from 9-12$.  So by my estimation an extra kicker or two is more likely to help me 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I thought you didn't like when anyone posted their rosters ;)

Just a big boom or bust guy. could be something, might not, but people have worse long shots IMO. 
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It is Goedert.  You posted the link awhile back and we can all see your roster.

 
Up to 29 on my rooster now.

Was at 5 RB/11 WR but dialed it over to 6 RB/10 WR - still not sure about it though :unsure:

-QG

 
matuski said:
It is Goedert.  You posted the link awhile back and we can all see your roster.
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No. and No, my roster has changed quite significantly since then. I think I had Corey Davis at the time. and still do. Probably Barber, Godwin, Lockett. all are still there. but many big changes. My TEs from what ive posted before have zero similarities. qb, defense and kicker as well I dont belueve are at all identical to what I've posted. and very likely my top RBs.

 
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Dr. Dan said:
No. and No, my roster has changed quite significantly since then. I think I had Corey Davis at the time. and still do. Probably Barber, Godwin, Lockett. all are still there. but many big changes. My TEs from what ive posted before have zero similarities. defense and kicker as well. and very likely my top RBs.
Click to expand...
Im just sayin, we can all see your team from that link.  I won't tell.

 
Going over last years top 10 finishers.  Here are some things that stuck out to me.

QB Position

-No Brady on any of the teams.  Weeks 13 through 16 were very pedestrian.

-Several different combinations were used but $6 Goff, $17 Winston, $11 Wentz, $20Wilson were on several teams.

RB Position

-Every single team had Hunt.  Shouldn't be a surprise because of the injury to Ware in the pre-season and Hunt only cost $10.  He was on a very high % of teams to begin with.

-The rest of the top ten had at least one of the following or a combination of them: $35 Bell-5, $30 McCoy-3, $27 Gurley-6, $19 McCaffrey-4

-Besides $10 Hunt, $7 Burkhead, and $7 J. Williams, no one under $19 made a significant contribution.

WR Position

-The top ten teams rostered on average 1-$20+ guy, 2 $10-19 guy, and 4 $9 or less guy.

-$5 Kupp was rostered 6 times and $5 Robby Anderson was rostered 5 times.

TE Position

-Gronk was on zero teams.  He missed 2 games because of injury throughout the season and had another 5 games where he was pedestrian. 

-$13 Ertz was on 7 teams.

My take away from this:  

-Having an elite QB is not needed to to win this contest.

-Spending big money at the RB position is money well spent.

-Quantity over High $ guys is better at the WR position.  Of course, you have to pick the right ones.

-Gronk scares me.  He costs a lot and you can't count on him to be healthy the whole season.  I would rather spread my money out on a couple TEs in the middle.

 
My final final is probably finally close to final. Until it’s not.

QB - 3 for $30.  

RB - 6 for $86

WR - 8 or $54

TE - 5 for $58

PK - 4 for $12

DT - 3 for $10

Total - 29 for $250

 
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I have everything figured out but my RBs and WRs. I'd like to grab another wr in the sub 7 range. I could make it work going drom Barkley to Alex Collins. Not sure I like that. 

So far:

QB 3 at 27

RB 5 at 98

WR 6 at 64

TE 4 at 45

K 2 at 6

D 2 at 10

 
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HairySasquatch said:
Going over last years top 10 finishers.  Here are some things that stuck out to me.

QB Position

-No Brady on any of the teams.  Weeks 13 through 16 were very pedestrian.

-Several different combinations were used but $6 Goff, $17 Winston, $11 Wentz, $20Wilson were on several teams.

RB Position

-Every single team had Hunt.  Shouldn't be a surprise because of the injury to Ware in the pre-season and Hunt only cost $10.  He was on a very high % of teams to begin with.

-The rest of the top ten had at least one of the following or a combination of them: $35 Bell-5, $30 McCoy-3, $27 Gurley-6, $19 McCaffrey-4

-Besides $10 Hunt, $7 Burkhead, and $7 J. Williams, no one under $19 made a significant contribution.

WR Position

-The top ten teams rostered on average 1-$20+ guy, 2 $10-19 guy, and 4 $9 or less guy.

-$5 Kupp was rostered 6 times and $5 Robby Anderson was rostered 5 times.

TE Position

-Gronk was on zero teams.  He missed 2 games because of injury throughout the season and had another 5 games where he was pedestrian. 

-$13 Ertz was on 7 teams.

My take away from this:  

-Having an elite QB is not needed to to win this contest.

-Spending big money at the RB position is money well spent.

-Quantity over High $ guys is better at the WR position.  Of course, you have to pick the right ones.

-Gronk scares me.  He costs a lot and you can't count on him to be healthy the whole season.  I would rather spread my money out on a couple TEs in the middle.
Click to expand...
However two huge factors this year are Passing TD’s are now 6 instead of 4 and RB catches are 0.5 instead of 1 

most elite backs were because of pass catching where 8 catches are now 4 points instead of 8

elite QB throw TD’s a week where Rodgers tossed 4 TD’s in a game is now 24 instead of 16 huge swings when I have only once been cut by more than 5 points. 

Now the bigger wrinkle RB and TE are the two biggest top loaded positions in terms of points... RB are now losing about 1/4 of their over all value and 1/3 vs TE’s 

ive reserved posting this because it is my strategy this year but I am personally going all in at QB and TE this year with the lowest $ spent of RB ever (not hard when I’ve taken 4 of the top 8 cost RB’s every year since I started. 

This may be mid guided and I’ll crash and burn week 5 when my combined QB score is over 80 but I can only count 30 but that’s my risk this year. 

 
Weeks 9 and 11 are really a struggle for me. It seems there are so many bargains, especially at week 11 but my budget and number of week 11 players on bye is difficult to stomach

 
Are any of you (consistently posters in this thread) concerned about a week 12 bye, particularly with a top producing player like Kelce or Tyreek HIll from Kansas City?

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Are any of you (consistently posters in this thread) concerned about a week 12 bye, particularly with a top producing player like Kelce or Tyreek HIll from Kansas City?
Click to expand...
That's obviously always a concern.  If you're going to risk it, you need to make sure that: (a) you have that position covered with someone who's going to score some points  (i.e., you can't take Kelce and Boyle and hope for the best--you need some midlevel guy); and (b) your other positions are loaded for that week.  If I take Kelce, I make sure that I have enough stud RBs and WRs to make up for him missing that week.  I like to plug lineups into Draft Dominator to look at that.  It doesn't give enough credit to the quantity of cheap guys approach, but it does let you see where byes create down weeks in your lineup.

 
HairySasquatch said:
Going over last years top 10 finishers.  Here are some things that stuck out to me.

QB Position

-No Brady on any of the teams.  Weeks 13 through 16 were very pedestrian.

-Several different combinations were used but $6 Goff, $17 Winston, $11 Wentz, $20Wilson were on several teams.

RB Position

-Every single team had Hunt.  Shouldn't be a surprise because of the injury to Ware in the pre-season and Hunt only cost $10.  He was on a very high % of teams to begin with.

-The rest of the top ten had at least one of the following or a combination of them: $35 Bell-5, $30 McCoy-3, $27 Gurley-6, $19 McCaffrey-4

-Besides $10 Hunt, $7 Burkhead, and $7 J. Williams, no one under $19 made a significant contribution.

WR Position

-The top ten teams rostered on average 1-$20+ guy, 2 $10-19 guy, and 4 $9 or less guy.

-$5 Kupp was rostered 6 times and $5 Robby Anderson was rostered 5 times.

TE Position

-Gronk was on zero teams.  He missed 2 games because of injury throughout the season and had another 5 games where he was pedestrian. 

-$13 Ertz was on 7 teams.

My take away from this:  

-Having an elite QB is not needed to to win this contest.

-Spending big money at the RB position is money well spent.

-Quantity over High $ guys is better at the WR position.  Of course, you have to pick the right ones.

-Gronk scares me.  He costs a lot and you can't count on him to be healthy the whole season.  I would rather spread my money out on a couple TEs in the middle.
Click to expand...
Good info. 

With regards to QBs, the difference between a guy like Wilson and Stafford is $9, but according to Dodds' projections the difference is only 7 fantasy points. Even from Cousins to a guy like Bortles is a big drop money but not really too much for points

I'm really liking Trubisky as a high value QB2. QB1 I'll look in the $10 range as they arent much different than $15 range for projections 

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Are any of you (consistently posters in this thread) concerned about a week 12 bye, particularly with a top producing player like Kelce or Tyreek HIll from Kansas City?
Click to expand...


Stephen Holloway said:
or Gurley, Goff, Cooks, etc.?
Click to expand...
I wont take Gurley for this reason. 

I do have Hill and I'm considering dumping him. but I feel like a lot of people have Hill as well as other guys with this bye. so I'm not sure it hurts as much. 

Currently Hill is my only player on bye that week. So I think I'm ok. 

Stephen Holloway said:
We must post more here and bury that Foxer info.
Click to expand...
Foxer info?

That's been well known. a strategy of myself as well

 
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HairySasquatch said:
Going over last years top 10 finishers.  Here are some things that stuck out to me.

QB Position

-No Brady on any of the teams.  Weeks 13 through 16 were very pedestrian.

-Several different combinations were used but $6 Goff, $17 Winston, $11 Wentz, $20Wilson were on several teams.

RB Position

-Every single team had Hunt.  Shouldn't be a surprise because of the injury to Ware in the pre-season and Hunt only cost $10.  He was on a very high % of teams to begin with.

-The rest of the top ten had at least one of the following or a combination of them: $35 Bell-5, $30 McCoy-3, $27 Gurley-6, $19 McCaffrey-4

-Besides $10 Hunt, $7 Burkhead, and $7 J. Williams, no one under $19 made a significant contribution.

WR Position

-The top ten teams rostered on average 1-$20+ guy, 2 $10-19 guy, and 4 $9 or less guy.

-$5 Kupp was rostered 6 times and $5 Robby Anderson was rostered 5 times.

TE Position

-Gronk was on zero teams.  He missed 2 games because of injury throughout the season and had another 5 games where he was pedestrian. 

-$13 Ertz was on 7 teams.

My take away from this:  

-Having an elite QB is not needed to to win this contest.

-Spending big money at the RB position is money well spent.

-Quantity over High $ guys is better at the WR position.  Of course, you have to pick the right ones.

-Gronk scares me.  He costs a lot and you can't count on him to be healthy the whole season.  I would rather spread my money out on a couple TEs in the middle.
Click to expand...
You basically described my exact strategy.  All my money in big RBs and TEs, a bunch of cheap fliers at QB and WR 

 
Foxer2373 said:
However two huge factors this year are Passing TD’s are now 6 instead of 4 and RB catches are 0.5 instead of 1 

most elite backs were because of pass catching where 8 catches are now 4 points instead of 8

elite QB throw TD’s a week where Rodgers tossed 4 TD’s in a game is now 24 instead of 16 huge swings when I have only once been cut by more than 5 points. 

Now the bigger wrinkle RB and TE are the two biggest top loaded positions in terms of points... RB are now losing about 1/4 of their over all value and 1/3 vs TE’s 

ive reserved posting this because it is my strategy this year but I am personally going all in at QB and TE this year with the lowest $ spent of RB ever (not hard when I’ve taken 4 of the top 8 cost RB’s every year since I started. 

This may be mid guided and I’ll crash and burn week 5 when my combined QB score is over 80 but I can only count 30 but that’s my risk this year. 
Click to expand...
Those scoring changes cut both ways though.  Yes passing TDs are 6 points but interceptions are only -1. So if Josh Allen throws for 300 with 3TDs and 3 INTs that’s still a good day for the contest.  I’m going to roll with 3 or 4 of the cheapest options and feel comfortable with it.  

As for RB, sure that knocks a guy like LeVeon Bell a bit.  But it also basically kills the value of guys like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, James White, etc.  Without a lot of the 3rd down PPR backs being viable it makes it that much more important IMO to pay up for studs you can count on 

 
Foxer2373 said:
However two huge factors this year are Passing TD’s are now 6 instead of 4 and RB catches are 0.5 instead of 1 

most elite backs were because of pass catching where 8 catches are now 4 points instead of 8

elite QB throw TD’s a week where Rodgers tossed 4 TD’s in a game is now 24 instead of 16 huge swings when I have only once been cut by more than 5 points. 

Now the bigger wrinkle RB and TE are the two biggest top loaded positions in terms of points... RB are now losing about 1/4 of their over all value and 1/3 vs TE’s 

ive reserved posting this because it is my strategy this year but I am personally going all in at QB and TE this year with the lowest $ spent of RB ever (not hard when I’ve taken 4 of the top 8 cost RB’s every year since I started. 

This may be mid guided and I’ll crash and burn week 5 when my combined QB score is over 80 but I can only count 30 but that’s my risk this year. 
Click to expand...
Aye, there's the rub.  You can't flex a QB, so everyone but your highest score is wasted money every week.  The midlevel/cheap guys are as likely to put up a good score as anyone but the top 2 or 3 guys, so yeah, if you take Rodgers/Watson or something similar you'll probably score a few more points at QB than something like  Stafford/Goff most weeks, but you'll also be wasting 10% of your cap every week. If you're looking at 80 points in a week from your QBs, it probably means you have 3 of them, so you're wasting even more. On the other hand, you can use up to 4 RB scores each week, so you're never going to waste a high score by having too many studs there.

 
apalmer said:
Aye, there's the rub.  You can't flex a QB, so everyone but your highest score is wasted money every week.  The midlevel/cheap guys are as likely to put up a good score as anyone but the top 2 or 3 guys, so yeah, if you take Rodgers/Watson or something similar you'll probably score a few more points at QB than something like  Stafford/Goff most weeks, but you'll also be wasting 10% of your cap every week. If you're looking at 80 points in a week from your QBs, it probably means you have 3 of them, so you're wasting even more. On the other hand, you can use up to 4 RB scores each week, so you're never going to waste a high score by having too many studs there.
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Sure, going with 2 top QBs has this problem but if you take Rodgers and a lower guy in the sub 10 range then you arent really wasting your dollars

 
Kudos for rule changes that have folks thinking they have figured out a new answer to the yearly riddle.

I'm actually quite comfortable with the arguments posted for and against the Foxer strategy (versus the "don't talk about it" crowd) as the excel solver work I've done on optimizing the portion of the budget for starters across a range of starting budget assumptions indicates that it does not resolve to a single viable strategy on positional budget and is more a matter of positional spending that makes sense if you want to "build" based on Rodgers or Gurley or Brown or Gronk (simplified explanation using the highest price player at each position).  Further, the truth is impacted in a non-linear way by positional scarcity and position-specific value, so concepts like variance and injury effectively invalidate cookbook methods for positional budget composition.

My advice: pick a directional strategy and build off players that you can live with.  #platitudes #sayingalotbutnotreallysayinganything

 
Dr. Dan said:
Sure, going with 2 top QBs has this problem but if you take Rodgers and a lower guy in the sub 10 range then you arent really wasting your dollars
Click to expand...
That really depends.  Say you take Rodgers/Trubisky for a total of $34 and they get you an average of 25 points a game.  I take Trubisky/Dalton/Darnold for $16 and they get me 18 points a game on average.  Is that extra $18 better spent on a 7 point upgrade at QB or improving another position? There’s obviously no correct answer to that, which is what makes the contest so interesting.  

 
Raback said:
That really depends.  Say you take Rodgers/Trubisky for a total of $34 and they get you an average of 25 points a game.  I take Trubisky/Dalton/Darnold for $16 and they get me 18 points a game on average.  Is that extra $18 better spent on a 7 point upgrade at QB or improving another position? There’s obviously no correct answer to that, which is what makes the contest so interesting.  
Click to expand...
exactly. I completely agree. I made a comment on this earlier today saying the difference can be like 7 dollars but 7 fantasy points total in Dodds' projections 

FWIW I have 2 QBs below $14 that I think can throw for 30 TDs, or at least 25+. I can live with the slight down tick in points in order to have the upgrade at rb and wr

I'm spending a total of $25 on qb right now

 
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Dr. Dan said:
Sure, going with 2 top QBs has this problem but if you take Rodgers and a lower guy in the sub 10 range then you arent really wasting your dollars
Click to expand...
Well, that's not what Foxer was suggesting.  He was going "all in" on QBs and seeing weeks where his QB totals might be 80 points.  You don't get that with Rodgers and a sub $10 guy.  But, I'd argue that you're still wasting money because the difference in scoring between top QBs and midlevel QBs isn't as great as the difference in scoring between top RBs and midlevel RBs.  Using the Dodds projections, Goff + Zeke (total $46) = 633 points. If you take Rodgers instead, the best RB you can get and not go over $46 is Miller for $18.  Rodgers + Miller = 587 points.  From a different angle, I can get 3 midlevel QBs for less than the cost of Rodgers.  Draft Dominator projections are that Rodgers will score between 23 and 27 points per week.  My 3 cheaper guys will score between 21 and 26 ppw. Even without a backup QB for Rodgers, I'm saving money and getting very nearly the same production (and the DD app tends to underestimate the quantity advantage, so there may not be any real difference).

 
Raback said:
I’m aware.  But what $4 RB is likely to outscore Gordon/Barkley/McCaffrey/Freeman? And is a $4 WR 11th WR really going to make a big difference for me?  If you’re going to say I should upgrade, I prefer the WRs at 5-7$ more than the ones from 9-12$.  So by my estimation an extra kicker or two is more likely to help me 
Click to expand...
well if you think a kicker will give your team more value than another wr then thats fine.  thats a strategic decision.  but it shouldnt be because you cant find a spot to spend the extra $4 bc theres $2-$4 value plays for days.

also i should point out that the only year i ever made money in this constest it was because of a $3 wr.  james jones the year he went off for gb and put up a qualifying score for me like every week.  plus $5 robby anderson and $5 cooper kupp were huge for the top finishers in the playoff rounds last year.  more than you have left to spend, but stil point remains.

 
Raback said:
I’m aware.  But what $4 RB is likely to outscore Gordon/Barkley/McCaffrey/Freeman? And is a $4 WR 11th WR really going to make a big difference for me?  If you’re going to say I should upgrade, I prefer the WRs at 5-7$ more than the ones from 9-12$.  So by my estimation an extra kicker or two is more likely to help me 
Click to expand...
There could be one in the making...

 
Dr. Dan said:
if you go back to the 2017 rules (for the longest time the link at the top of the forum page took you to 2017) it shows this is not the case 
Click to expand...
I'm fairly certain the .5, 1, 1.5 ppr has been here for a few contests running at least?

eta - I only find a link to the 2017 post season contest.... which indeed had the .5, 1, 1.5.

 
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If you liked calcomatic.com last year wait until you see what's in store for this year!!!!  Just kidding, it's essentially the same. 

Rosters are supposed to lock on 9/5 and I'll try to have everything ready for the Eagles/Falcons game on 9/6!  If you donated last year thank you!  If you are planning to make a donation this year doing so now could provide additional motivation for me to have everything ready by the Eagles/Falcons kickoff :D :P  

A couple additional notes: 

  1. The scoring has changed this year for the contest and I think I have everything setup correctly but things could be off this first week.  As always, calcomatic is not official.
  2. These 10 players will not score points in calcomatic until I am able to associated their "NFL ID" with their "Calcomatic ID" - I'll get this corrected as soon as they accumulate any stats during the regular season.  
1    C Williams    WR    ARI
2    T Ward    RB    ATL
3    N Boyle    TE    BAL
4    E St. Brown    WR    GB
5    K Coutee    WR    HOU
6    M Rivera    TE    JAX
7    B Bowman    TE    LAC
8    S Michel    RB    NE
9    A Darboh    WR    SEA
10    T Taylor    WR    SF

 
Steeler said:
  1. These 10 players will not score points in calcomatic until I am able to associated their "NFL ID" with their "Calcomatic ID" - I'll get this corrected as soon as they accumulate any stats during the regular season.  
1    C Williams    WR    ARI
2    T Ward    RB    ATL
3    N Boyle    TE    BAL
4    E St. Brown    WR    GB
5    K Coutee    WR    HOU
6    M Rivera    TE    JAX
7    B Bowman    TE    LAC
8    S Michel    RB    NE
9    A Darboh    WR    SEA
10    T Taylor    WR    SF
Click to expand...
Sony Michel sticks out like a sore thumb...but he'll probably take week 1 off so you've got some time :P

 
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