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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (1 Viewer)

The Duff Man said:
Indy had the #2 run defence and was worst in the league defending long passes. I don’t understand the game plan in this one. 
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Yeah, I didn't understand all the running.  The first few QB runs were fine, but we definitely overdid it.  The important thing is that we won.

I don't know how I survived the SB years when it was like this week after week, year after year.

 
This game feels very reminiscent of the first Patriots game.

Bills are - on paper - the better team. National media saying they're the better team.  They're as hot as any team in the NFL.  But it's something they haven't done in forever (beaten the Patriots / won a playoff game).  They had to exorcise those demons, had to prove that they could climb that mountain.  A little antsy.  It wasn't pretty - the other team (just like in the Patriots game) is a formidable opponent capable of beating you.  But they climbed the mountain and proved to themselves that they can do it.

We'll see what happens next week.  Baltimore and Tennessee are not good matchups for the Bills.  I've got a lot more confidence in beating PIttsburgh, but any given Sunday I suppose.  Happy to be here and watch the rest of the weekend's games coming off a relieving win.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
My college age kids were both texting me starting at 10 this morning all like "I think I'm going to throw up" and "I can't take this" and "I haven't sat down since the first quarter" etc. etc.  Rookies.
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I'm relatively young in the grand scheme of this message board, but at least I have memories of when the Bills were good.  I remember the last 2 Super Bowls, remember where I was during the Music City Miracle, I was at the Bills last home playoff game with my dad and my uncle.  I feel bad for the younger fans who literally have zero memory of the Bills being good.  If you're like 27 or younger, you probably have no recollection of the Bills ever being good.

 
Steve Tasker said:
I'm relatively young in the grand scheme of this message board, but at least I have memories of when the Bills were good.  I remember the last 2 Super Bowls, remember where I was during the Music City Miracle, I was at the Bills last home playoff game with my dad and my uncle.  I feel bad for the younger fans who literally have zero memory of the Bills being good.  If you're like 27 or younger, you probably have no recollection of the Bills ever being good.
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Yep.  I'm acutely aware that this team has been completely irrelevant during my kids' entire lives.  I'm happy that they get to experience this and have a bright future to look forward to.  We should be a solid team for a long time, regardless of what happens this year.

 
Steve Tasker said:
We'll see what happens next week.  Baltimore and Tennessee are not good matchups for the Bills.  I've got a lot more confidence in beating PIttsburgh, but any given Sunday I suppose.  Happy to be here and watch the rest of the weekend's games coming off a relieving win.
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Yeah, I really want no part of Bal or Ten. I think there’s about a 90% chance they’ll be playing the Steelers though.

If they do end up playing Bal or Ten, if they win the toss I think they’d be best served to take the ball to start. Scoring first and jumping out to an early lead is absolutely the key to beating Bal or Ten for the Bills. The sooner you can get them to abandon the run even a little, the better your odds of winning.

 
GroveDiesel said:
If they do end up playing Bal or Ten, if they win the toss I think they’d be best served to take the ball to start.
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I was actually kind of bummed they chose to defer today. I don't think the Colts are too far away from Balt/Ten in terms of being a run-first team. Against those types of teams I'd like to see the Bills take the ball and try to get out to a lead as early as possible.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
Definitely a bummer, but I don't think it affects much. This isn't a run first team, and Singletary is perfectly capable. Throw Williams or Yeldon in for 3-4 carries per game and they are fine.
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Yeah, I like Moss, but all of our RBs are kind of interchangeable.  Regardless of who we play next week, we should be throwing the ball 90% of the time anyway.

 
Josh Allen finished 26-of-35 (74%) for 324 yards and 2 TDs. Also added 11/54/1 with his legs. This makes him the first QB to throw for 300+, run for 50+, and complete at least 70% of his passes in a playoff game all-time. Unreal.

Link

Yeah, throw the freaking ball.

 
Can you imagine what it would be like for this fan base if the Colts had gone on to win that game after the fumble non-call?  It would be like Home Run Throwback dialed up to 11.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Can you imagine what it would be like for this fan base if the Colts had gone on to win that game after the fumble non-call?  It would be like Home Run Throwback dialed up to 11.
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To be honest, I was kind of trying to brace for it in the moment. I'm glad I didn't have to realize it.

 
Bills will be playing Saturday again. I was hoping for that. Obviously they'd have an extra day of rest no matter the outcome, but this way it's 6 and 5 days rest as opposed to 7 and 6.

 
Tomlin has seemingly made the wrong call every single time tonight. They badly need an analytics guy (or someone that has played Madden).

 
Well, if the Bills manage to get to the Super Bowl, they would certainly have earned it. The AFC is a murderer’s row this year. From here on out I think it comes down to which QB has a better game that week and which defense makes the most big plays. Likely gonna be a whole lot of offense.

 
I'm holding off on re-watching Saturday's game until after the season, but I'm still baffled as to what happened to all the time on the clock on that last drive.  The Colts got the ball back at about their own 15 with about 2:30 left to play.  My recollection is that after the non-fumble-that-was-obviously-a-fumble they had a first down at about their own 40 with about 50 seconds remaining.  I remember everything up to that point pretty clearly.  Then it was like all of the sudden there's 8 seconds left on the clock and they're stuck with a hail mary attempt.  I somehow blocked out the plays in between, but it seemed like they had plenty of time to get 20 or so yards for a long FG attempt.  

Such a weird ending to that game.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm holding off on re-watching Saturday's game until after the season, but I'm still baffled as to what happened to all the time on the clock on that last drive.  The Colts got the ball back at about their own 15 with about 2:30 left to play.  My recollection is that after the non-fumble-that-was-obviously-a-fumble they had a first down at about their own 40 with about 50 seconds remaining.  I remember everything up to that point pretty clearly.  Then it was like all of the sudden there's 8 seconds left on the clock and they're stuck with a hail mary attempt.  I somehow blocked out the plays in between, but it seemed like they had plenty of time to get 20 or so yards for a long FG attempt.  

Such a weird ending to that game.
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On their last first down they threw a pass outside that got stopped for a loss or short gain.  He was tackled in bounds so the clock did not stop.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm holding off on re-watching Saturday's game until after the season, but I'm still baffled as to what happened to all the time on the clock on that last drive.  The Colts got the ball back at about their own 15 with about 2:30 left to play.  My recollection is that after the non-fumble-that-was-obviously-a-fumble they had a first down at about their own 40 with about 50 seconds remaining.  I remember everything up to that point pretty clearly.  Then it was like all of the sudden there's 8 seconds left on the clock and they're stuck with a hail mary attempt.  I somehow blocked out the plays in between, but it seemed like they had plenty of time to get 20 or so yards for a long FG attempt.  

Such a weird ending to that game.
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Just took them too long to get down the field. Lots of short plays and lots of incomplete passes. It was a 13 play drive! Getting to a 4th and 1 and running it definitely drained the clock. They had some other weirdly long plays as well. That fumble that wasn’t a fumble that really was a fumble took 22 seconds. The next play took 14 seconds.

Bottom line: Bills basically went into prevent and it worked. The Colts aren’t really built for big plays anyway, but they had plays of 11, 5, 4, 3, and 17 yards that all stayed inbounds. Their only other non-incomplete pass went for just 1 yard and was fumbled out of bounds.

 
I am worried about this one. 
The refs swallowed the whistles this week. That helps the less talented team as they can hold and disrupt the receiving game. 
The weather is also not forecast to help the passing game. 

 
Interesting stat: the Bills are only the 2nd team ever to have 20+ first downs in every game. A testament to how consistently the Bills have moved the ball all year. They even had 20+ this last week despite not having that many possessions.

 
First time in 18 years that a team has won a playoff game despite losing the field position battle by 163 yards.  It's honestly pretty amazing to be pinned back like that pretty much the whole freaking game and goes a long way toward explaining why this was such a nervous outing.

Really tough draw this week.  We could beat the Colts despite not playing especially well, but we need to bring our A game this time.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
First time in 18 years that a team has won a playoff game despite losing the field position battle by 163 yards.  It's honestly pretty amazing to be pinned back like that pretty much the whole freaking game and goes a long way toward explaining why this was such a nervous outing.

Really tough draw this week.  We could beat the Colts despite not playing especially well, but we need to bring our A game this time.  
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Really wish Pitt would’ve won...  

But Edmunds, Milano, someone, needs to put a hit so hard on Jackson early that he thinks twice about running with the ball. 
Raven’s worry me.  Not cause they’rea better team, but you never know what Jackson is gonna do with his backyard garbage play. 

 
Feels like this will come down to how the game is called. If they “let them play” our WRs will struggle to get open against their man coverage and that will also help Bal run the ball (if holding is not called). I think if there are more than 2.5 holding calls Bills win. 

 
Mr. Peterson said:
Really wish Pitt would’ve won...  

But Edmunds, Milano, someone, needs to put a hit so hard on Jackson early that he thinks twice about running with the ball. 
Raven’s worry me.  Not cause they’rea better team, but you never know what Jackson is gonna do with his backyard garbage play. 
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They may be the better team. Their defense seems to be pretty good and I’m not so sure that’s the case with Buffalo. Buffalo is the better offense overall, but Jackson is such a unique weapon that he always has the potential to win a game himself.

And I’ll disagree that Jackson’s play is garbage play. Is he a top 10 passer? No, but he is so far and away a unique running talent that he is special. And he’s a good enough QB to make him a threat and force teams to respect the pass enough that you can’t just play the run. He’s such a special talent that is so unique that it’s impossible that consistently shut him down because if you build a defense that can do that you’ll struggle with every other offense out there. I think if I were starting a team, I’d probably put my QBs as:

Mahomes

Allen

Watson/Jackson

 
I imagine that preparing for Baltimore is kind of like preparing for a really good service academy.  Their offense is just so unlike anything else you regularly see in the NFL, but they're legitimately good and it's not just a gimmick.

 
Reading some things that make me a little more positive about the outcome. It sounds like Bal is likely to play man. Allen carved up man this year, 126 passer rating, 25 TD and 2 INT against man, Cover 0 or Cover 1.  Better than Rodgers or Mahomes. 
 

Against Cover 2 and their variations in zone his rating dropped to 95, with 11 TDs and 8 INTs. 
 

Bal D has been hot down the stretch, but look at the opposition. Cin, NYG and Jax all averaged around 14-17 pts down the stretch with several single digit scores against other opponents. So Bal holding them down is not impressive. 

Mayfield and Mahomes carved them up. I don’t see why Allen couldn’t. 
 

 
A completely imperfect comparison of the Wild Card performances:

Indy’s average game score the prior 4 games was 30.75 - 22.25. With a final of 24 - 27 the Bills “outperformed” what Indy had been doing by 11.5 points, split almost equally offence and defence. 
 

Ten’s average game score the prior 4 games was 33 - 28.25. With a final of 13 - 20 the Ravens “outperformed” what Ten had been doing by 11.75 points. They slightly underperformed on offence and crushed them on defence. 
 

I found it interesting that the performances (under this completely random criteria) were nearly identical. 

 
Here is a crazy stat on how hot these teams are. Since Thanksgiving they are a combined 13-1 against the spread with the lone exception being the Bills last week 😳

 
I'm not really that worried about Allen and the offense.  That's not meant in any way to be disrespectful to Baltimore or anything, just that the offense has been consistently excellent all year except for the Tennessee game which was deeply weird all around.  Baltimore has a good defense, but the Bills passing game has been shredding good defenses all year.  I'll be kind of disappointed if Buffalo is held below 28.

I'm super duper worried about the Buffalo defense vs. Baltimore's running game.  That's a real weakness-vs.-strength matchup in Baltimore's favor.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm not really that worried about Allen and the offense.  That's not meant in any way to be disrespectful to Baltimore or anything, just that the offense has been consistently excellent all year except for the Tennessee game which was deeply weird all around.  Baltimore has a good defense, but the Bills passing game has been shredding good defenses all year.  I'll be kind of disappointed if Buffalo is held below 28.

I'm super duper worried about the Buffalo defense vs. Baltimore's running game.  That's a real weakness-vs.-strength matchup in Baltimore's favor.  
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I honestly think the game comes down to turnovers.

 
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