Who are your top 5 rookie busts for 2024? (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

This is not taking into account long term success. Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than other rookies not expected to produce in 2024. This shouldn't include project players that you know won't be given much of a chance in 2024.

1) Keon Coleman - Buffalo is the drawing card here, but let's not forget the separation issues he had going into the draft. That hasn't suddenly been fixed. Buffalo is an attractive landing spot, but if he doesn't get open Josh Allen will look in other directions.
2) Xavier Legette - another raw prospect without a route tree, one year wonder? He will need some time to develop IMO, if ever.
3) Adonai Mitchell - I'm not sure AR can support two WRs, let alone three. Great spot for the Colts. Perhaps not for your fantasy team in 2024.
4) Drake Maye - Poor decision making and footwork won't help him in the beginning once he takes over in 2024 (and he will). I have doubts about his ability to deal with pressure. He can be a top 10 QB with the right coaching, but it won't be in 2024.
5) Ricky Pearsall - Only on the caveat that both Deebo and Aiyuk don't get traded. I'm not so sure Pearsall will see enough targets in 2024 with so many options in SF (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle). Don't get me wrong, I love Pearsall. I'm not sure I love him in 2024.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

JJ McCarthy - I just don't see it. I'm know I'm not alone but based on what he did in college I don't understand why he was a top 10 pick or how he was even vaguely coveted by NFL teams with that sort of investment. The notion that he won in college and therefore he's somehow a really good QB is one of the more perplexing narratives I've seen during the pre draft process. Michigan didn't need him to win. They went huge periods in games without him doing anything more than handing the ball off. Maybe he can do more than he's shown, he probably can, but based on what we've seen I don't really understand why anyone would project that growth to reach a level where you'd invest your future in him. He seems like a nice kid and I'll be hoping he can take the significant step required however.

I don't have 5. I can understand why everyone else went where they did and think they are all reasonable picks at cost.

 

[JohnnyU]

JJ McCarthy - I just don't see it. I'm know I'm not alone but based on what he did in college I don't understand why he was a top 10 pick or how he was even vaguely coveted by NFL teams with that sort of investment. The notion that he won in college and therefore he's somehow a really good QB is one of the more perplexing narratives I've seen during the pre draft process. Michigan didn't need him to win. They went huge periods in games without him doing anything more than handing the ball off. Maybe he can do more than he's shown, he probably can, but based on what we've seen I don't really understand why anyone would project that growth to reach a level where you'd invest your future in him. He seems like a nice kid and I'll be hoping he can take the significant step required however.

I don't have 5. I can understand why everyone else went where they did and think they are all reasonable picks at cost.

Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson doesn't hurt. If he fails they can't say he wasn't set up for success in 2024. I get it that rookie QBs are very risky, but if I had to choose one that may beat those odds, it's McCarthy. I think he's an efficient QB that won't lose games for the Vikings and will utilize those weapons. I'm not saying he will be a top QB in 2024, but he is set up for success. Then one might say, I am dissing Keon Coleman and he has Josh Allen. I think it's a big difference given McCarthy will have the ball in his hands every play.

 

[Max Power]

If we're talking 2024, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brian Thomas Jr. underperform. I love his talent and think long term he should be a top 5 rookie pick.

I'm worried because I think there are still a lot of mouths to feed in Jacksonville and the offense hasn't shown the ability to rack up points on a consistent basis. Lawrence still needs to take that next step forward and I'm not even sure Jacksonville has with him.

My Avoid list (long term) due to draft capital is Legette, Corley and Polk. All three have a ding or two in my eyes that I'm discounting them more than the average FBG and will gladly let others take on those adventures.

 

[Birdie048]

Good discussion topic. My quick thoughts on 2024 Fantasy value:

1) Xavier Legette: Any Carolina Offensive player in 2024 will underperform or not reach any level of FF value until they fix the OL/FO; long term I see Metcalf "potential"
2) Rome Odunze - new offense, new talented professional WR competition, 2024 will be a JXN type FF output (WR60 range); love his long term value
3) Brian Thomas - Jax has to fix TLaw first and they like the run game more; so limited targets will make a slow development
4) Xavier Worthy - Speed kills, but needing to challenge real NFL caliber DBs will limit his early production; slow start in 2024 and evolve late
5) Jonathan Brooks - Carolina Run OL is decent, but his recovery from ACL will limit his opportunities and the whole CAR offense is dire

 

[JohnnyU]

If we're talking 2024, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brian Thomas Jr. underperform. I love his talent and think long term he should be a top 5 rookie pick.

I'm worried because I think there are still a lot of mouths to feed in Jacksonville and the offense hasn't shown the ability to rack up points on a consistent basis. Lawrence still needs to take that next step forward and I'm not even sure Jacksonville has with him.

My Avoid list (long term) due to draft capital is Legette, Corley and Polk. All three have a ding or two in my eyes that I'm discounting them more than the average FBG and will gladly let others take on those adventures.

I also have some worry about Brian Thomas Jr., but not enough to put him in my top 5. They do have a dependable WR in Kirk and TE in Engram, but Gabe Davis doesn't impress me (except for his one or two insane games each year) and losing Ridley opens up targets for Thomas Jr.

 

[JohnnyU]

Good discussion topic. My quick thoughts on 2024 Fantasy value:

1) Xavier Legette: Any Carolina Offensive player in 2024 will underperform or not reach any level of FF value until they fix the OL/FO; long term I see Metcalf "potential"
2) Rome Odunze - new offense, new talented professional WR competition, 2024 will be a JXN type FF output (WR60 range); love his long term value
3) Brian Thomas - Jax has to fix TLaw first and they like the run game more; so limited targets will make a slow development
4) Xavier Worthy - Speed kills, but needing to challenge real NFL caliber DBs will limit his early production; slow start in 2024 and evolve late
5) Jonathan Brooks - Carolina Run OL is decent, but his recovery from ACL will limit his opportunities and the whole CAR offense is dire

I wanted to make Worthy an honorable mention, but I think he's a lot more than a speed guy and if anyone can make you a superstar it is Mahomes. Worthy is a lot better WR than other WRs taken by the Chiefs in recent drafts (i.e. Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman).

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I get it that rookie QBs are very risky, but if I had to choose one that may beat those odds, it's McCarthy

If you could only choose one QB from this class you'd take McCarthy? That seems very bold to me mate. Not sure I believe it.

 

[Gold Fox]

JJ McCarthy - I just don't see it. I'm know I'm not alone but based on what he did in college I don't understand why he was a top 10 pick or how he was even vaguely coveted by NFL teams with that sort of investment. The notion that he won in college and therefore he's somehow a really good QB is one of the more perplexing narratives I've seen during the pre draft process. Michigan didn't need him to win. They went huge periods in games without him doing anything more than handing the ball off. Maybe he can do more than he's shown, he probably can, but based on what we've seen I don't really understand why anyone would project that growth to reach a level where you'd invest your future in him. He seems like a nice kid and I'll be hoping he can take the significant step required however.

I don't have 5. I can understand why everyone else went where they did and think they are all reasonable picks at cost.

Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson doesn't hurt. If he fails they can't say he wasn't set up for success in 2024. I get it that rookie QBs are very risky, but if I had to choose one that may beat those odds, it's McCarthy. I think he's an efficient QB that won't lose games for the Vikings and will utilize those weapons. I'm not saying he will be a top QB in 2024, but he is set up for success. Then one might say, I am dissing Keon Coleman and he has Josh Allen. I think it's a big difference given McCarthy will have the ball in his hands every play.

I'm expecting McCarthy to be a good NFL quarterback, but an average Fantasy quarterback.

 

[JohnnyU]

I get it that rookie QBs are very risky, but if I had to choose one that may beat those odds, it's McCarthy

If you could only choose one QB from this class you'd take McCarthy? That seems very bold to me mate. Not sure I believe it.

I didn't say that. I said if I had to choose one to beat the odds it is McCarthy. I like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels more than McCarthy. I don't necessarily think he is a top 5 bust for 2024.

 

[-OZ-]

This is not taking into account long term success. Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than most other rookies in 2024. This shouldn't include project players that you know won't be given much of a chance in 2024.

1) Keon Coleman - Buffalo is the drawing card here, but let's not forget the separation issues he had going into the draft. That hasn't suddenly been fixed. Buffalo is an attractive landing spot, but if he doesn't get open Josh Allen will look in other directions.
2) Xavier Legette - another raw prospect without a route tree, one year wonder? He will need some time to develop IMO, if ever.
3) Adonai Mitchell - I'm not sure AR can support two WRs, let alone three. Great spot for the Colts. Perhaps not for your fantasy team in 2024.
4) Drake Maye - Poor decision making and footwork won't help him in the beginning once he takes over in 2024 (and he will). I have doubts about his ability to deal with pressure. He can be a top 10 QB with the right coaching, but it won't be in 2024.
5) Ricky Pearsall - Only on the caveat that both Deebo and Aiyuk don't get traded. I'm not so sure Pearsall will see enough targets in 2024 with so many options in SF (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle). Don't get me wrong, I love Pearsall. I'm not sure I love him in 2024.

Good list, but is anyone expecting Pearsall to do a lot if neither Deebo or Aiyuk are traded? He’s the 5th option at best to start the year. Is his ADP in redraft that high?

 

[JohnnyU]

This is not taking into account long term success. Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than most other rookies in 2024. This shouldn't include project players that you know won't be given much of a chance in 2024.

1) Keon Coleman - Buffalo is the drawing card here, but let's not forget the separation issues he had going into the draft. That hasn't suddenly been fixed. Buffalo is an attractive landing spot, but if he doesn't get open Josh Allen will look in other directions.
2) Xavier Legette - another raw prospect without a route tree, one year wonder? He will need some time to develop IMO, if ever.
3) Adonai Mitchell - I'm not sure AR can support two WRs, let alone three. Great spot for the Colts. Perhaps not for your fantasy team in 2024.
4) Drake Maye - Poor decision making and footwork won't help him in the beginning once he takes over in 2024 (and he will). I have doubts about his ability to deal with pressure. He can be a top 10 QB with the right coaching, but it won't be in 2024.
5) Ricky Pearsall - Only on the caveat that both Deebo and Aiyuk don't get traded. I'm not so sure Pearsall will see enough targets in 2024 with so many options in SF (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle). Don't get me wrong, I love Pearsall. I'm not sure I love him in 2024.

Good list, but is anyone expecting Pearsall to do a lot if neither Deebo or Aiyuk are traded? He’s the 5th option at best to start the year. Is his ADP in redraft that high?

I would agree, but one will be traded. They aren't paying both, so if one is traded you have to put Pearsall into the conversation.

 

[Biabreakable]

JJ McCarthy - I just don't see it. I'm know I'm not alone but based on what he did in college I don't understand why he was a top 10 pick or how he was even vaguely coveted by NFL teams with that sort of investment. The notion that he won in college and therefore he's somehow a really good QB is one of the more perplexing narratives I've seen during the pre draft process. Michigan didn't need him to win. They went huge periods in games without him doing anything more than handing the ball off. Maybe he can do more than he's shown, he probably can, but based on what we've seen I don't really understand why anyone would project that growth to reach a level where you'd invest your future in him. He seems like a nice kid and I'll be hoping he can take the significant step required however.

I don't have 5. I can understand why everyone else went where they did and think they are all reasonable picks at cost.

Vikings fan here and I can relate to your perspective about him. When he first was being talked about as a fit for the Vikings, my first thought was that the Vikings don't run the ball nearly as much as Michigan did with McCarthy and their philosophy on offense as well as personnel does not fit doing that with him either. The Vikings are a passing team, they ask their QB to do more.

That said over the past month I have also learned some things he is good at.

Very good on 3rd down.

Good at attacking the middle of the field.

Athletic and can extend plays or run for 1st downs.

He is 21 years old.

It's always hard to extrapolate any metrics to a larger sample size but McCarthy shows good things that should translate to the NFL.

 

[BigJim®]

I get it that rookie QBs are very risky, but if I had to choose one that may beat those odds, it's McCarthy.

Whatever anyone thinks of McCarthy, he's been a winner and superlatively efficient (according to metrics I saw predraft) for 3rd/4th down and redzone. Can't locate, but also think his outside the pocket % numbers were near the top. He may not be a Joe Burrow out of the gates, but efficient QBs who have proven poise on pressure downs is a good foundation for growing into something better.

 

[titusbramble]

Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than most other rookies in 2024.

This makes no sense to me. For me, a bust is someone that doesn't live up to the expectations you have for that player. I wouldn't consider any of the players you listed possible busts, as outside of Coleman I don't expect any of them to project to do much of anything for 2024 redraft purposes. Legette being drafted above McConkey and then producing less than McConkey would not qualify him as a bust in and of itself as I expect McConkey to produce more than Legette will. Legette producing less than what I project Legette to do would make him a bust

 

[JohnnyU]

Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than most other rookies in 2024.

This makes no sense to me. For me, a bust is someone that doesn't live up to the expectations you have for that player. I wouldn't consider any of the players you listed possible busts, as outside of Coleman I don't expect any of them to project to do much of anything for 2024 redraft purposes. Legette being drafted above McConkey and then producing less than McConkey would not qualify him as a bust in and of itself as I expect McConkey to produce more than Legette will. Legette producing less than what I project Legette to do would make him a bust

I guess what I'm saying is that we have different opinions on who we expect to produce in 2024. These are my 5 that I feel others think like me and expect them to produce in their rookie year. Obviously there are differing opinions on this. One possible exception might be Legette. There may be some who think he shouldn't be expected to produce, but he was selected 32nd overall, thus the reason why I do think he is expected to produce in 2024 and makes my list. I also think McConkey is expected to produce and I think he will, thus the reason he isn't on my list.

edit: I updated the OP to hopefully be more clear - "meaning they were expected to do better than other rookies not expected to produce in 2024"

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Pretty much every RB, even the ones on good teams. They all seem like role-player, (scat back, special teams, short yardage) - they would almost all need multiple injuries ahead of them to become start-able in FF, and even then, likely only flex dart throw type players.

That’s for 2024. A couple of them could see expanded roles in 2025 and beyond, but none of their metrics really pop. The dudes with NFL build (~220 lbs) are all 4.6+ slugs who lack a 2nd gear. The undersized dudes seem destined to 3rd down or ST roles. Many have pass pro issues, from what I’ve been reading.

And virtually none of them have enough draft capital to get much rope if they come out of the gate sputtering.

I know they’ll all get drafted in dynasty, but that’s just rookie fever and rose-colored glasses. The vast majority will be roster cloggers.

 

[socrates]

4) Xavier Worthy - Speed kills, but needing to challenge real NFL caliber DBs will limit his early production; slow start in 2024 and evolve late

You cannot use the words "Xavier Worthy" and "slow" in the same sentence. It's just not allowed!

 

[Crippler]

I get it that rookie QBs are very risky, but if I had to choose one that may beat those odds, it's McCarthy

If you could only choose one QB from this class you'd take McCarthy? That seems very bold to me mate. Not sure I believe it.

I am drafting SF next week and he is my target. I dont have 1.8 but expect him to be there and have done the legwork. I pick 4, 13, 15, 17, 22 and have had many discussions with owner at 5, 7, 8 about trade ideas. Just pulling trigger now during draft. He is my 2nd fav next to Williams. The guy is a winner and love the weapons. I know 5 thinking Odzune at 5 and Maye or Daniels at 7. Now let’s see what 4 brings because no clue at the top.

 

[socrates]

This is not taking into account long term success. Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than other rookies not expected to produce in 2024. This shouldn't include project players that you know won't be given much of a chance in 2024.

1) Keon Coleman - Buffalo is the drawing card here, but let's not forget the separation issues he had going into the draft. That hasn't suddenly been fixed. Buffalo is an attractive landing spot, but if he doesn't get open Josh Allen will look in other directions.
2) Xavier Legette - another raw prospect without a route tree, one year wonder? He will need some time to develop IMO, if ever.
3) Adonai Mitchell - I'm not sure AR can support two WRs, let alone three. Great spot for the Colts. Perhaps not for your fantasy team in 2024.
4) Drake Maye - Poor decision making and footwork won't help him in the beginning once he takes over in 2024 (and he will). I have doubts about his ability to deal with pressure. He can be a top 10 QB with the right coaching, but it won't be in 2024.
5) Ricky Pearsall - Only on the caveat that both Deebo and Aiyuk don't get traded. I'm not so sure Pearsall will see enough targets in 2024 with so many options in SF (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle). Don't get me wrong, I love Pearsall. I'm not sure I love him in 2024.

I am not necessarily out on any of these rookies long-term, but I agree with most of your points for 2024 success.

Keon Coleman: I am not convinced that Coleman is going to be a high-volume receiver, but he can be a high-volume redzone threat
Xavier Legette: Legette has a path to being the Panthers' WR1, but they reached for him in Round 1. Legette is your classic boom-or-bust fantasy pick, but, unfortunately, you will have to invest early in dynasty drafts to get him. I am probably out at the cost of acquiring Legette, although I do like his potential
Adonai Mitchell: I probably like Mitchell a little more than the consensus, but not so much for 2024. I am not especially optimistic about Mitchell having early success in Indy
Drake Maye: I suspect the plan in NE is to bring Maye along slowly as they develop the young talent around him. I just don't know that they will be afforded that patience. Maye is an exciting talent, but he is raw. I believe Maye’s strengths fit what OC Van Pelt wants to do (Flacco, another big-arm QB, had some late-season success under Van Pelt’s direction in 2023)
Ricky Pearsall: As it stands now, there are a lot of mouths to feed in SF, so you may be sitting on this pick for a year (or more) before it pays out. San Francisco is generally near the bottom of the league in terms of running three-receiver sets, but if either Deebo or Aiyuk gets traded (or injured), Pearsall immediately becomes a valuable fantasy commodity

 

[Zow]

JJ McCarthy - I just don't see it. I'm know I'm not alone but based on what he did in college I don't understand why he was a top 10 pick or how he was even vaguely coveted by NFL teams with that sort of investment. The notion that he won in college and therefore he's somehow a really good QB is one of the more perplexing narratives I've seen during the pre draft process. Michigan didn't need him to win. They went huge periods in games without him doing anything more than handing the ball off. Maybe he can do more than he's shown, he probably can, but based on what we've seen I don't really understand why anyone would project that growth to reach a level where you'd invest your future in him. He seems like a nice kid and I'll be hoping he can take the significant step required however.

I don't have 5. I can understand why everyone else went where they did and think they are all reasonable picks at cost.

Vikings fan here and I can relate to your perspective about him. When he first was being talked about as a fit for the Vikings, my first thought was that the Vikings don't run the ball nearly as much as Michigan did with McCarthy and their philosophy on offense as well as personnel does not fit doing that with him either. The Vikings are a passing team, they ask their QB to do more.

That said over the past month I have also learned some things he is good at.

Very good on 3rd down.

Good at attacking the middle of the field.

Athletic and can extend plays or run for 1st downs.

He is 21 years old.

It's always hard to extrapolate any metrics to a larger sample size but McCarthy shows good things that should translate to the NFL.

Yep, same takeaway. I was initially really surprised and resistant when McCarthy was being talked about as a trade up option. But, after looking into it via podcasts, here, etc. McCarthy's skills actually fit the type of throws the Minnesota offense calls for.

 

[Zow]

I actually like a lot of the players drafted and thought the NFL did a nice job drafting. Nonetheless, as this is a good exercise, here are my top 5 busts:

1. Penix - Look, I know listing him first is almost like cheating and nobody expects much this year, but I see him as a Chase Daniel at best which means he's a bust at 1.8. So, even SF drafters taking him in the first part of the second round won't get value.
2. Keon Coleman - Yeah, it seems to be a trend already in this thread and I didn't hate the pick when Buffalo grabbed him as he's got a ceiling, but his floor is very low given the separation issues.
3. Ladd McConkey - First of my picks that are probably going against the grain, but I see Harbaugh running a lot and McConkey's ceiling will be limited. I see a Hunter Renfrow level of production.
4. Malik Nabers - I think the Giants are a mess and Nabers is going higher than he should. I expect him to be rosterable and a borderline starter, but I see him as a "bust" for those taking him over top QBs in SF and I much prefer Odunze.
5. Jayden Daniels - Injury-risk choice here.

 

[Truebluey]

4. Malik Nabers - I think the Giants are a mess and Nabers is going higher than he should. I expect him to be rosterable and a borderline starter, but I see him as a "bust" for those taking him over top QBs in SF and I much prefer Odunze.

Top WRs, right? Aiyuk tends to go way before Nabers at end of the second, whereas Nabers and Deebo are end of the third, start of the fourth. I personally don't hate him there, although there are others I would reach for first, and that might be my TE round this year.

 

[Zow]

4. Malik Nabers - I think the Giants are a mess and Nabers is going higher than he should. I expect him to be rosterable and a borderline starter, but I see him as a "bust" for those taking him over top QBs in SF and I much prefer Odunze.

Top WRs, right? Aiyuk tends to go way before Nabers at end of the second, whereas Nabers and Deebo are end of the third, start of the fourth. I personally don't hate him there, although there are others I would reach for first, and that might be my TE round this year.

No, I am referring to the top QBs (except Caleb) in SF rookie drafts. I'm seeing him go like 1.3 or 1.4 over guys like Daniels and Maye - which I think will wind up being a mistake.

 

[Mister CIA]

3. Ladd McConkey - First of my picks that are probably going against the grain, but I see Harbaugh running a lot and McConkey's ceiling will be limited. I see a Hunter Renfrow level of production.

Yeah, I'll disagree with you on this one. It's generally accepetd that the Chargers are going to throw less under the new regime, but all that stands in the way preventing McConkey from being the team's #1 WR is Quentin Johnson, Josh Palmer, and D.J. Chark. Until now I'd thought about McConkey only in terms of dynasty value, but I'll probably be selecting him in the 7th round of a redraft to round out my starting lineup.

 

[pecorino]

I don't know much about this rookie class but I saw Drake Maye play a couple times last year and I was shocked that he was so highly regarded. I could see him busting.

 

[ZADO]

Im kind of shocked nobodies said Brock Bowers considering so many people are writing the Raiders off due to lack of quality QB play

 

[TheWinz]

Pretty much every RB, even the ones on good teams. They all seem like role-player, (scat back, special teams, short yardage) - they would almost all need multiple injuries ahead of them to become start-able in FF, and even then, likely only flex dart throw type players.

That’s for 2024. A couple of them could see expanded roles in 2025 and beyond, but none of their metrics really pop. The dudes with NFL build (~220 lbs) are all 4.6+ slugs who lack a 2nd gear. The undersized dudes seem destined to 3rd down or ST roles. Many have pass pro issues, from what I’ve been reading.

And virtually none of them have enough draft capital to get much rope if they come out of the gate sputtering.

I know they’ll all get drafted in dynasty, but that’s just rookie fever and rose-colored glasses. The vast majority will be roster cloggers.

I know the class of RB's is lacking this year, but at least 1 rookie always breaks out... ALWAYS. I went back to 2000, and every season has at least 1 rookie finish RB2 or better. In the 24 years, we have had 28 RB1's and 29 RB2's, with 16 of those years garnering at least one RB1.

 

[Lansdowne]

I'm going to do something a little different and list a bunch of rookies and the things I'm most worried about them for 2024. These aren't predictions so much as they're hypotheticals that concern me. I still like them more for dynasty for the most part. This is more of a redraft thing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - He's one Kyler Murray injury away from having to catch passes from Desmond Ridder. Good luck if it ever comes to that.
Malik Nabers - The most yards ever by a receiver on a Daniel Jones-led team is 811, and that was at Duke.
Rome Odunze - DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will command a large target share, might be a JSN-type season for Rome.
Caleb Williams - Still got questions about the offensive line, potential for a lot of turnovers his rookie season.
Xavier Worthy - Gets compared to Tyreek Hill but is 22 lbs. lighter than Hill, target volume in question with Kelce, Brown, Rice around, could be another Jamo situation.
Brock Bowers - Questionable QB situation, target competition from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, rookie TE's often take longer to adapt than other skill positions.
Brian Thomas Jr. - Offense still centered around ETN, plus will need to compete for targets with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram.
Ladd McConkey - I have PTSD of Greg Roman after being burnt by Rashod Bateman, who I thought was a can't-miss prospect.
Jayden Daniels - Style of play lends itself to injury, worrisome especially given his slender frame for a QB.
Jonathon Brooks - Coming off an ACL injury and on an underwhelming offense on paper.
Keon Coleman - Lots of target competion for someone who profiles as a lower volume receiver, might be another high variance guy like Gabe Davis was for them.
Trey Benson - May be no more than a handcuff for 2024 with Conner in the last year of his contract and still playing at a high level.
Ricky Pearsall - Low volume passing attack and that's factoring in he's probably 5th in the order, at best, for 2024.
Adonai Mitchell - Getting Donte Moncrief vibes, also will be surprised if he beats out either of Pittman and Downs for targets.
Drake Maye - Lots of growing pains to be expected assuming he even starts a game this season.
Blake Corum - Similar to Trey Benson situation except with an elite fantasy RB and one who is signed through 2025.
J.J. McCarthy - I'd expect less fantasy points than what Kirk Cousins gave as starter, and it'll probably be Sam Darnold running it for most of 2024.
Xavier Legette - Raw prospect at age 23, expected to be brought along slowly, wouldn't expect much for this season.

 

[Gally]

J.J. McCarthy - I'd expect less fantasy points than what Kirk Cousins gave as starter

That isn't really going out on a limb considering Cousins was top 5-ish for the last two years (last year he was top 5 at the time he got hurt). That would be a monster season from JJ to even approach those numbers.

 

[TripItUp]

This is not taking into account long term success. Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than other rookies not expected to produce in 2024. This shouldn't include project players that you know won't be given much of a chance in 2024.

1) Keon Coleman - Buffalo is the drawing card here, but let's not forget the separation issues he had going into the draft. That hasn't suddenly been fixed. Buffalo is an attractive landing spot, but if he doesn't get open Josh Allen will look in other directions.
2) Xavier Legette - another raw prospect without a route tree, one year wonder? He will need some time to develop IMO, if ever.
3) Adonai Mitchell - I'm not sure AR can support two WRs, let alone three. Great spot for the Colts. Perhaps not for your fantasy team in 2024.
4) Drake Maye - Poor decision making and footwork won't help him in the beginning once he takes over in 2024 (and he will). I have doubts about his ability to deal with pressure. He can be a top 10 QB with the right coaching, but it won't be in 2024.
5) Ricky Pearsall - Only on the caveat that both Deebo and Aiyuk don't get traded. I'm not so sure Pearsall will see enough targets in 2024 with so many options in SF (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle). Don't get me wrong, I love Pearsall. I'm not sure I love him in 2024.

Most of these guys aren't really ranked that high for redraft....so not sure if they can really be classified as busts. Maye wont even go drafted in most PPR leagues(as an example)

What ranking are you using?

Weird topic...this thread is flawed.

 

[nirad3]

This is not taking into account long term success. Only expectations for 2024, meaning they were expected to do better than other rookies not expected to produce in 2024. This shouldn't include project players that you know won't be given much of a chance in 2024.

1) Keon Coleman - Buffalo is the drawing card here, but let's not forget the separation issues he had going into the draft. That hasn't suddenly been fixed. Buffalo is an attractive landing spot, but if he doesn't get open Josh Allen will look in other directions.
2) Xavier Legette - another raw prospect without a route tree, one year wonder? He will need some time to develop IMO, if ever.
3) Adonai Mitchell - I'm not sure AR can support two WRs, let alone three. Great spot for the Colts. Perhaps not for your fantasy team in 2024.
4) Drake Maye - Poor decision making and footwork won't help him in the beginning once he takes over in 2024 (and he will). I have doubts about his ability to deal with pressure. He can be a top 10 QB with the right coaching, but it won't be in 2024.
5) Ricky Pearsall - Only on the caveat that both Deebo and Aiyuk don't get traded. I'm not so sure Pearsall will see enough targets in 2024 with so many options in SF (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle). Don't get me wrong, I love Pearsall. I'm not sure I love him in 2024.

Most of these guys aren't really ranked that high for redraft....so not sure if they can really be classified as busts. Maye wont even go drafted in most leagues(as an example)

What ranking are you using?

Weird topic...this thread is flawed.

Completely agree. A ton of rookies can "bust" or "disappoint" in Year One and then still have excellent long-term dynasty value.

We're talking about redraft for 2024? Rookies?

 

[travdogg]

I'm going to do something a little different and list a bunch of rookies and the things I'm most worried about them for 2024. These aren't predictions so much as they're hypotheticals that concern me. I still like them more for dynasty for the most part. This is more of a redraft thing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - He's one Kyler Murray injury away from having to catch passes from Desmond Ridder. Good luck if it ever comes to that.
Malik Nabers - The most yards ever by a receiver on a Daniel Jones-led team is 811, and that was at Duke.
Rome Odunze - DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will command a large target share, might be a JSN-type season for Rome.
Caleb Williams - Still got questions about the offensive line, potential for a lot of turnovers his rookie season.
Xavier Worthy - Gets compared to Tyreek Hill but is 22 lbs. lighter than Hill, target volume in question with Kelce, Brown, Rice around, could be another Jamo situation.
Brock Bowers - Questionable QB situation, target competition from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, rookie TE's often take longer to adapt than other skill positions.
Brian Thomas Jr. - Offense still centered around ETN, plus will need to compete for targets with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram.
Ladd McConkey - I have PTSD of Greg Roman after being burnt by Rashod Bateman, who I thought was a can't-miss prospect.
Jayden Daniels - Style of play lends itself to injury, worrisome especially given his slender frame for a QB.
Jonathon Brooks - Coming off an ACL injury and on an underwhelming offense on paper.
Keon Coleman - Lots of target competion for someone who profiles as a lower volume receiver, might be another high variance guy like Gabe Davis was for them.
Trey Benson - May be no more than a handcuff for 2024 with Conner in the last year of his contract and still playing at a high level.
Ricky Pearsall - Low volume passing attack and that's factoring in he's probably 5th in the order, at best, for 2024.
Adonai Mitchell - Getting Donte Moncrief vibes, also will be surprised if he beats out either of Pittman and Downs for targets.
Drake Maye - Lots of growing pains to be expected assuming he even starts a game this season.
Blake Corum - Similar to Trey Benson situation except with an elite fantasy RB and one who is signed through 2025.
J.J. McCarthy - I'd expect less fantasy points than what Kirk Cousins gave as starter, and it'll probably be Sam Darnold running it for most of 2024.
Xavier Legette - Raw prospect at age 23, expected to be brought along slowly, wouldn't expect much for this season.

I can agree with most of the potential downsides of these guys, but I don't know about the McConkey one. I don't see Roman as having anything to do with Bateman disappointing. That has everything to do with Bateman and his injuries. Even with Roman gone, its not like Bateman suddenly broke out or anything. There was a guy who went 107-1361-9 as the #1 under Greg Roman, he was the Ravens #1, he just played TE. Even Hollywood had a 91-1008-6 season with Roman, and I think McConkey is likely a better talent than Hollywood is.

I'll also add, I think it'd be a pretty big upset if Sam Darnold starts more than a couple games, and I think there is a better than 50-50 chance McCarthy starts week 1, though yes, expecting him to be Kirk Cousins instantly is unlikely.

In Malik Nabers (and Daniel Jones I guess) defense, Jones has never had a pass catcher even half as good as Nabers. He's had a career with Darius Slayton as his #1 WR.

 

[joey]

I'm going to do something a little different and list a bunch of rookies and the things I'm most worried about them for 2024. These aren't predictions so much as they're hypotheticals that concern me. I still like them more for dynasty for the most part. This is more of a redraft thing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - He's one Kyler Murray injury away from having to catch passes from Desmond Ridder. Good luck if it ever comes to that.
Malik Nabers - The most yards ever by a receiver on a Daniel Jones-led team is 811, and that was at Duke.
Rome Odunze - DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will command a large target share, might be a JSN-type season for Rome.
Caleb Williams - Still got questions about the offensive line, potential for a lot of turnovers his rookie season.
Xavier Worthy - Gets compared to Tyreek Hill but is 22 lbs. lighter than Hill, target volume in question with Kelce, Brown, Rice around, could be another Jamo situation.
Brock Bowers - Questionable QB situation, target competition from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, rookie TE's often take longer to adapt than other skill positions.
Brian Thomas Jr. - Offense still centered around ETN, plus will need to compete for targets with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram.
Ladd McConkey - I have PTSD of Greg Roman after being burnt by Rashod Bateman, who I thought was a can't-miss prospect.
Jayden Daniels - Style of play lends itself to injury, worrisome especially given his slender frame for a QB.
Jonathon Brooks - Coming off an ACL injury and on an underwhelming offense on paper.
Keon Coleman - Lots of target competion for someone who profiles as a lower volume receiver, might be another high variance guy like Gabe Davis was for them.
Trey Benson - May be no more than a handcuff for 2024 with Conner in the last year of his contract and still playing at a high level.
Ricky Pearsall - Low volume passing attack and that's factoring in he's probably 5th in the order, at best, for 2024.
Adonai Mitchell - Getting Donte Moncrief vibes, also will be surprised if he beats out either of Pittman and Downs for targets.
Drake Maye - Lots of growing pains to be expected assuming he even starts a game this season.
Blake Corum - Similar to Trey Benson situation except with an elite fantasy RB and one who is signed through 2025.
J.J. McCarthy - I'd expect less fantasy points than what Kirk Cousins gave as starter, and it'll probably be Sam Darnold running it for most of 2024.
Xavier Legette - Raw prospect at age 23, expected to be brought along slowly, wouldn't expect much for this season.

I LOVE all of these write ups! You need to do a Debbie Downer thread every year to list the downside of the top 20 rookies. I think it would hilarious (and informative/reality check).

 

[Lansdowne]

I'm going to do something a little different and list a bunch of rookies and the things I'm most worried about them for 2024. These aren't predictions so much as they're hypotheticals that concern me. I still like them more for dynasty for the most part. This is more of a redraft thing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - He's one Kyler Murray injury away from having to catch passes from Desmond Ridder. Good luck if it ever comes to that.
Malik Nabers - The most yards ever by a receiver on a Daniel Jones-led team is 811, and that was at Duke.
Rome Odunze - DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will command a large target share, might be a JSN-type season for Rome.
Caleb Williams - Still got questions about the offensive line, potential for a lot of turnovers his rookie season.
Xavier Worthy - Gets compared to Tyreek Hill but is 22 lbs. lighter than Hill, target volume in question with Kelce, Brown, Rice around, could be another Jamo situation.
Brock Bowers - Questionable QB situation, target competition from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, rookie TE's often take longer to adapt than other skill positions.
Brian Thomas Jr. - Offense still centered around ETN, plus will need to compete for targets with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram.
Ladd McConkey - I have PTSD of Greg Roman after being burnt by Rashod Bateman, who I thought was a can't-miss prospect.
Jayden Daniels - Style of play lends itself to injury, worrisome especially given his slender frame for a QB.
Jonathon Brooks - Coming off an ACL injury and on an underwhelming offense on paper.
Keon Coleman - Lots of target competion for someone who profiles as a lower volume receiver, might be another high variance guy like Gabe Davis was for them.
Trey Benson - May be no more than a handcuff for 2024 with Conner in the last year of his contract and still playing at a high level.
Ricky Pearsall - Low volume passing attack and that's factoring in he's probably 5th in the order, at best, for 2024.
Adonai Mitchell - Getting Donte Moncrief vibes, also will be surprised if he beats out either of Pittman and Downs for targets.
Drake Maye - Lots of growing pains to be expected assuming he even starts a game this season.
Blake Corum - Similar to Trey Benson situation except with an elite fantasy RB and one who is signed through 2025.
J.J. McCarthy - I'd expect less fantasy points than what Kirk Cousins gave as starter, and it'll probably be Sam Darnold running it for most of 2024.
Xavier Legette - Raw prospect at age 23, expected to be brought along slowly, wouldn't expect much for this season.

I LOVE all of these write ups! You need to do a Debbie Downer thread every year to list the downside of the top 20 rookies. I think it would hilarious (and informative/reality check).

I remember reading the Puka Nacua hype on Reddit when Cooper Kupp got injured, and thinking “okay but you guys hyped up Bryan Edwards and Elijah Moore too and look how that turned out”. Every year I play fantasy football, I’m reminded that the more I think I know about these players, the less I actually know.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I just want Williams to be a bust and I'll be happy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Pretty much every RB, even the ones on good teams. They all seem like role-player, (scat back, special teams, short yardage) - they would almost all need multiple injuries ahead of them to become start-able in FF, and even then, likely only flex dart throw type players.

That’s for 2024. A couple of them could see expanded roles in 2025 and beyond, but none of their metrics really pop. The dudes with NFL build (~220 lbs) are all 4.6+ slugs who lack a 2nd gear. The undersized dudes seem destined to 3rd down or ST roles. Many have pass pro issues, from what I’ve been reading.

And virtually none of them have enough draft capital to get much rope if they come out of the gate sputtering.

I know they’ll all get drafted in dynasty, but that’s just rookie fever and rose-colored glasses. The vast majority will be roster cloggers.

I know the class of RB's is lacking this year, but at least 1 rookie always breaks out... ALWAYS. I went back to 2000, and every season has at least 1 rookie finish RB2 or better. In the 24 years, we have had 28 RB1's and 29 RB2's, with 16 of those years garnering at least one RB1.

Yep, I agree.

As I said in the RB class topic, identifying which is going g to be the hard part. Feels like you can narrow it down to 3-4.

And ya might still be wrong.

 

[Payne]

After the 2012 draft I stated in my office that Cousins would be a better QB the RGIII.

While I don't feel the gap is quite as large with this next prediction, I do think it will happen.

JJ will be a better QB than Caleb. And I'm an MSU fan.

I think Caleb has bust written all over him. I don't have the stats or even a valid argument for that statement.
It's just a gut feeling. I believe Caleb is going to fold under any form of pressure. You saw it in college. Crying to your mom after a loss? Pass.
He has been deemed the golden child for quite some and probably has an immense amount of pressure on him.
I don't think he can handle it at all.

Only time will tell.

 

[Ilov80s]

If we are talking for 2024 redraft:

1. Caleb Williams- because he went 1.01 and is seen as "generational", landed on a team with a loaded skill group and the CJ Stroud effect, I think a lot of people reach for him much higher than we normally see rookie QBs go in redraft and for me, unless a rookie QB is a demon in the run game, I want to fade them.
2. Xavier Legette- not a good prospect, he didn't do anything in college until he was a 5th year senior beating up on players much younger. For a guy as fast and strong as he is, he should have been making an impact earlier. People might see 1st round pick and think "somebody has to step up in Carolina" but that is surely a trap.
3. Jonathan Brooks- he may end the year as a nice fantasy asset but with his knee injury and the presence of Chuba, I think it's going to be a slow acclimation to the NFL. Brooks is the type of player who burns the player who drafts him but provides a nice boost to the team savy enough to get him as a cheap midyear trade throw-in.
4. Ladd McConkey- he's going to get steamed up because of the lack of other options in LA but that's never a good reason to take a player. Call me extremely skeptical that a player who was like the 4th option on his college team can step into the NFL day 1 and be the primary target.
5. Brian Thomas- I see him as a DJ Chark type tall field stretcher, not a primary fantasy target hog. Kirk is more reliable, Davis is better in the red zone. I think Thomas' ADP will get hot but I will stay cool.

 

[Young 8]

Im kind of shocked nobodies said Brock Bowers considering so many people are writing the Raiders off due to lack of quality QB play

He also has "duck feet".

 

[kface]

I mean I think reading even pre-draft anyone can be bust (minus Harrison who could be a bust but most agree probably will not be).

Nabers - I can the giants being in a cycle of 2-3 year implosion and it's hard to be great when the team is throwing the ball for 150 yards a game
Williams - certainly i can see this being a huge flop. Lots of pressure to be great and the guy
McCarthy - I'm not high on him. I think he chokes this away in a team that is somewhat turning over
Worthy - something tells me the chiefs are drafting another wr next year
Bowers - he's a talent but this feels like a Kyle Pitts situation

As many have mentioned so many of the rbs and so many of the wrs are deeply flawed I do suspect there are more busts than hits this year