Stray Doug
Footballguy
Estimating a final 117.35 cut line (putting in estimated values for SNF/MNF games)
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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter apalmer
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
126 with some smaller odds and ends should do it. Attrition from injury is picking up.
jdkapow
Footballguy
I'd feel a lot better if Josh threw it to Gabe instead of, you know, the guy covering him.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
some quick halftime numbers courtesy of Quizzomatic (includes everyone whether roosterable or not)
Bengals:
Burrow 21.05
Mixon 11.80
Trayveon Williams 1.30
Higgins 7.20
Hudson 7.30
Sample 11.80 (!)
Boyd 4.40
Irv Smith Jr 10.80 (!)
Chase 3.90
Iosivas 1.90
McPherson 3.00
Bengals Defense 3.00
Bills:
J Allen 5.20
Cook 0.90
Shakir 6.50
Diggs 6.30
Kincaid 10.70
Bass 1.00
Bills Defense 1.00
-QG
Bengals:
Burrow 21.05
Mixon 11.80
Trayveon Williams 1.30
Higgins 7.20
Hudson 7.30
Sample 11.80 (!)
Boyd 4.40
Irv Smith Jr 10.80 (!)
Chase 3.90
Iosivas 1.90
McPherson 3.00
Bengals Defense 3.00
Bills:
J Allen 5.20
Cook 0.90
Shakir 6.50
Diggs 6.30
Kincaid 10.70
Bass 1.00
Bills Defense 1.00
-QG
jdkapow
Footballguy
Hey, what about Gabe Davi...oh, never mind.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
After Sunday Night 172.50 + Chargers - 8.00
Remaining Byes (and injured guys)
QB: None
RB: K Herbert (13-injured), Gainwell (10)
WR: Dotson (14), A Pierce (11), Nacua (10), Michael Wilson (14-injured)
TE: Waller (13-injured), Kincaid (13)
PK: Sanders (10), Santos (13)
DEF: Rams (10)
Guys past their bye:
QB: Burrow, Pickett
RB: McCaffrey, K Walker III, Bigsby, C Evans
WR: Chase, Doubs, Dell
TE: Otton, Musgrave
PK: Hopkins
DEF: Lions, Chargers
Good luck to those still sweating.
-QG
Remaining Byes (and injured guys)
QB: None
RB: K Herbert (13-injured), Gainwell (10)
WR: Dotson (14), A Pierce (11), Nacua (10), Michael Wilson (14-injured)
TE: Waller (13-injured), Kincaid (13)
PK: Sanders (10), Santos (13)
DEF: Rams (10)
Guys past their bye:
QB: Burrow, Pickett
RB: McCaffrey, K Walker III, Bigsby, C Evans
WR: Chase, Doubs, Dell
TE: Otton, Musgrave
PK: Hopkins
DEF: Lions, Chargers
Good luck to those still sweating.
-QG
PIK95
Footballguy
I'm at 117 right now with Garrett Wilson and Zeurlein still to go. Carrying Puka and Doubs with sixes and a zero at kicker, so there is still hope with Wilson and Leg. Send me vibes!
Thanks to Juwan Johnson and Musgrave picking up the slack for Waller. Dotson and Mostert again helped.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Well thanks for nothing Gabe Davis.
Still modestly confident that I can get to 120....but its not a sure thing.
Skipdog77
Footballguy
TE's saved me this week (assuming the cut line doesn't jump by 43 pts tonight).
Makes up for my pitiful RB crew:
| TE Dalton Kincaid - $10 | 23.10 |
| TE Luke Musgrave - $6 | 15.60 |
| TE Jake Ferguson - $6 | 25.60 |
Makes up for my pitiful RB crew:
| RB Bijan Robinson - $33 | 6.90 |
| RB Samaje Perine - $16 | 0.00 |
| RB Khalil Herbert - $13 | 0.00 |
| RB Tank Bigsby - $9 | 0.00 |
| RB Zack Moss - $4 | 2.60 |
| RB Ty Chandler - $3 | 0.00 |
themeanmachine
Footballguy
welp, that was it for me - picking Love as one of my QBs really hurt with Lawrence on bye. All my RBs and WRs flopped. And Waller getting hurt at the same time LaPorta and Engram were on bye left me with a 0 at TE. And those TEs were the anchor of my team, and the only reason my overall crappy team made it this far. In weeks 1-8, at least 2 TEs scored for me every week, and all 3 scored in 3 weeks. Looking forward to the post-season contest!
Puppies
Footballguy
Hey Buddy,,,, you better get a few more points tonight or you might slip back town into "tier 5" with me...
I'm sitting on 161.05 with Dicker the Kicker -6 left to play tonight. 
Good luck!I thought I was toast this week, but I got some points from some of the most unexpected players.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
| Player | Position | Team | Owners Alive |
| Cameron Dicker | PK | LAC | 564 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 342 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | TD | LAC | 322 |
| Greg Zuerlein | PK | NYJ | 280 |
| New York Jets | TD | NYJ | 232 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 220 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 209 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | NYJ | 185 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | NYJ | 116 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 92 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | NYJ | 89 |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | LAC | 82 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | NYJ | 82 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 61 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | 42 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | NYJ | 38 |
| Joshua Kelley | RB | LAC | 18 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | 16 |
| Isaiah Spiller | RB | LAC | 16 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 15 |
| Donald Parham Jr. | TE | LAC | 14 |
| Israel Abanikanda | RB | NYJ | 6 |
| Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | 2 |
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Just want Herbert and Ekeler to score enough points tonight to ensure I advance (shouldn't take more than 10 combined)... because the less they score the more likely to bring down their ownership numbers, which make them bigger differentiators for me (as long as the reason they score low isn't reflective of an injury or other cause for performance concern going forward!)
Chase, Ekeler, and the Texans D are my lowest-ownership-remaining players with <100 each. Ekeler is the lowest at 61, and currently 16 of his owners are projected to get cut this week.
Also McCaffrey's numbers should drop quite a bit... currently showing 141 of his 354 owners projected to miss the cut (40% cut rate for the week).
Five highest survival rates to date for players who already have had their bye are Thielen (32.9%), Parham Jr. (30.4%), Turd Ferguson (28.3%), Walker III (28.1%), and Dustin Hopkins (27.6%).
Chase, Ekeler, and the Texans D are my lowest-ownership-remaining players with <100 each. Ekeler is the lowest at 61, and currently 16 of his owners are projected to get cut this week.
Also McCaffrey's numbers should drop quite a bit... currently showing 141 of his 354 owners projected to miss the cut (40% cut rate for the week).
Five highest survival rates to date for players who already have had their bye are Thielen (32.9%), Parham Jr. (30.4%), Turd Ferguson (28.3%), Walker III (28.1%), and Dustin Hopkins (27.6%).
Last edited:
jdkapow
Footballguy
apalmer
Footballguy
Check Army Eyes's page (link in the first post of this thread)
jdkapow
Footballguy
Dead Man Walking Watch:
At the moment, there are three players on the verge of having all their rosters eliminated from the contest (in addition to the 5 players who already died):
Bailey Zappe
Sam Darnold
Cooper Kupp (!)
Looked a little closer at the Kupp situation. There are three teams that can theoretically get over the line tonight, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Entry #107601: sitting around 107 now and still has Herbert...but also has Howell, so it's Herbert - 23.95.
Entry #107922: sitting around 96 and has Wilson - 4.2, so it's possible but would take a monster game.
Entry #100518: sitting around 79 with Allen, Parham and the Chargers D, minus around 12 total. So needs 50+ from those three.
At the moment, there are three players on the verge of having all their rosters eliminated from the contest (in addition to the 5 players who already died):
Bailey Zappe
Sam Darnold
Cooper Kupp (!)
Looked a little closer at the Kupp situation. There are three teams that can theoretically get over the line tonight, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Entry #107601: sitting around 107 now and still has Herbert...but also has Howell, so it's Herbert - 23.95.
Entry #107922: sitting around 96 and has Wilson - 4.2, so it's possible but would take a monster game.
Entry #100518: sitting around 79 with Allen, Parham and the Chargers D, minus around 12 total. So needs 50+ from those three.
SDJohnny
Footballguy
Agreed, totally unnecessary to wipe our teams off the site.
dbc925
Footballguy
Well, he did just enough. I think I'm going to make it through with 131.5. The Chargers -2 should add a few points. This is the first time I've been this close this year. Hopefully it is not an indication of things to come.
jdkapow
Footballguy
Well, the Chargers D/ST, my last chance at points (-4), has already done what Gabe could not! I think I'll be okay.
jdkapow
Footballguy
I think they're up to 11 less than 9 minutes into the game?!
Yahoo didn't credit the sack, but ESPN did. Should be 11. (ESPN correct)
jdkapow
Footballguy
Awards and notable teams of the week.
Strongest Living Team: One Giant Loss (#107797) scored only 165.55 this week but still has a stranglehood on this title. They’re still averaging over 200 points per week (201.5) at a point when nobody else cracks 190, but they are now as far ahead of 2nd place as the 2nd place team is ahead of the 85th(!) place team.
Strongest Dead Team: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Going into this week, Lavalley01 (#103589) and Cake or Death (#100791) were the 2nd- and 3rd-strongest teams in the contest. After week 9, they’re still 8th and 10th, respectively, but they’re also dead.
Keep Your Day Job Award: Very silly Entry #102381 continues to be very silly, averaging 57 points a week where no other team is under 90. Entry #104339 is still the worst “serious” team in the contest, despite the fact that they scored a whopping 138.55 points this week. This was the first time they actually cleared the cutline, but their overall average is still just 105.2.
Safest Team: One Giant Loss (#107797) still leads here as well: they’ve cleared the cutline by at least 46.4 points every week. We’re down to one other team above 40: APE APE APE (#107757).
Just Skating By Award: Sea Dragons (#103912) has never cleared the cutline by more than 24.85 points, but hey, they’re still alive, which is better than 8500 other teams can say!
Steady Eddie Award: The lowest standard deviation for a living team barely moved this week, edging up from 7.05 to 7.19, with Entry #103945 our new leader as most consistent living team. They’ve scored between 152 and 175 every week. I should note that Texicans (#109193) has by far the lowest standard deviation overall in the contest (6.39), but many of their scores, all between 119 and 141, were below the cutline.
Crazy Eddie Award: GUNMAN1217 still has the highest standard deviation among living teams, at 45.2, but they dropped from 19th to 36th in overall rank. Not surprisingly, the highest-standard-deviation teams also tend to be dead teams at this point.
Icarus Award: See “Strongest Dead Team” above: the 2nd- and 3rd-strongest teams in the contest going into week 9 are now smoldering wreckage. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that happen before.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Dirtypirates (#107096) has this category on stranglehold. They’ve easily cleared the cutline every week…since week 1, when they were eliminated. Since then, they’re averaging over 180 points per week.
Strongest Living Team: One Giant Loss (#107797) scored only 165.55 this week but still has a stranglehood on this title. They’re still averaging over 200 points per week (201.5) at a point when nobody else cracks 190, but they are now as far ahead of 2nd place as the 2nd place team is ahead of the 85th(!) place team.
Strongest Dead Team: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Going into this week, Lavalley01 (#103589) and Cake or Death (#100791) were the 2nd- and 3rd-strongest teams in the contest. After week 9, they’re still 8th and 10th, respectively, but they’re also dead.
Keep Your Day Job Award: Very silly Entry #102381 continues to be very silly, averaging 57 points a week where no other team is under 90. Entry #104339 is still the worst “serious” team in the contest, despite the fact that they scored a whopping 138.55 points this week. This was the first time they actually cleared the cutline, but their overall average is still just 105.2.
Safest Team: One Giant Loss (#107797) still leads here as well: they’ve cleared the cutline by at least 46.4 points every week. We’re down to one other team above 40: APE APE APE (#107757).
Just Skating By Award: Sea Dragons (#103912) has never cleared the cutline by more than 24.85 points, but hey, they’re still alive, which is better than 8500 other teams can say!
Steady Eddie Award: The lowest standard deviation for a living team barely moved this week, edging up from 7.05 to 7.19, with Entry #103945 our new leader as most consistent living team. They’ve scored between 152 and 175 every week. I should note that Texicans (#109193) has by far the lowest standard deviation overall in the contest (6.39), but many of their scores, all between 119 and 141, were below the cutline.
Crazy Eddie Award: GUNMAN1217 still has the highest standard deviation among living teams, at 45.2, but they dropped from 19th to 36th in overall rank. Not surprisingly, the highest-standard-deviation teams also tend to be dead teams at this point.
Icarus Award: See “Strongest Dead Team” above: the 2nd- and 3rd-strongest teams in the contest going into week 9 are now smoldering wreckage. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that happen before.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Dirtypirates (#107096) has this category on stranglehold. They’ve easily cleared the cutline every week…since week 1, when they were eliminated. Since then, they’re averaging over 180 points per week.
jdkapow
Footballguy
Notable Teams:
QBs: We lost the last 8-QB team last week. All the 7-QB teams were already dead. Of the 25 6-QB teams, 2 of them (8%) are still with us. Compare to the overall 14.7% survival rate: don’t draft six or more QBs. Entry #100302 and Entry #108571 are trying to be the exceptions, but I wouldn’t get too excited about their prospects.
RBs: We lost one of the last two remaining 10-RB teams this week. Entry #104404 is the last one standing.
WRs: Entry #105705 simply will not die. They’ve been the only surviving 14-WR team for weeks now and they came through again. Meanwhile, the three 13-WR teams are all dead, as are all but two of the twelve 12-WR teams.
TEs: No change: Walts Froze Head (#105214), the last 7-TE team standing, made it through yet another week.
PKs: We lost just one of the 5-K teams. Four of the original 54 remain.
DEFs: We lost one of the 6-DEF teams this week. Three of the original 15 remain, for a pretty-good 20% survival rate.
Dollars: Thought I’d add something new this week. There were 11 teams that only spent $240 or less of their budget (one spent only $184). Why? Beats me. Anyway, they’re all dead. Five of them died week one. Entry #104361, on the other hand, is still very much alive, despite spending only $241 to assemble their roster. There are only 23 players on their team, what makes one ask, “why?” But hey, hard to argue with success!
QBs: We lost the last 8-QB team last week. All the 7-QB teams were already dead. Of the 25 6-QB teams, 2 of them (8%) are still with us. Compare to the overall 14.7% survival rate: don’t draft six or more QBs. Entry #100302 and Entry #108571 are trying to be the exceptions, but I wouldn’t get too excited about their prospects.
RBs: We lost one of the last two remaining 10-RB teams this week. Entry #104404 is the last one standing.
WRs: Entry #105705 simply will not die. They’ve been the only surviving 14-WR team for weeks now and they came through again. Meanwhile, the three 13-WR teams are all dead, as are all but two of the twelve 12-WR teams.
TEs: No change: Walts Froze Head (#105214), the last 7-TE team standing, made it through yet another week.
PKs: We lost just one of the 5-K teams. Four of the original 54 remain.
DEFs: We lost one of the 6-DEF teams this week. Three of the original 15 remain, for a pretty-good 20% survival rate.
Dollars: Thought I’d add something new this week. There were 11 teams that only spent $240 or less of their budget (one spent only $184). Why? Beats me. Anyway, they’re all dead. Five of them died week one. Entry #104361, on the other hand, is still very much alive, despite spending only $241 to assemble their roster. There are only 23 players on their team, what makes one ask, “why?” But hey, hard to argue with success!
jdkapow
Footballguy
And now the players:
Eliminated Players: After a week 8 that generated no new zombie players, week 9 was a bloodbath. Three new players—Sam Darnold, Bailey Zappe, and Cooper Kupp—are no longer rostered on any living teams, swelling the zombie rolls to eight.
The Biggest Mistake: Jerry Jeudy (102 rosterers) and Justin Jefferson (1065 rosterers) are clearly the biggest mistakes among commonly-rostered players, with survival rates of 3.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Bad year for the letter J.
The Survivor: We lost the 30% survivors this week. Despite a mediocre week, Puka Nacua is at the top of the list with a 29.8% survival rate, doubling up the overall 14.7% rate (the only player to do so).
The Bargain: It’s Nacua’s world, we’re just living in it. Michael Wilson is the only other $3 player with a survival rate over 25%.
The Parasite: Leonard Fournette still hasn’t scored a single point (although I think that will change soon), but somehow his teams have a 23.6% survival rate, well above average. I assume he’ll suit up soon, though, and that remarkable achievement of non-contribution will end.
Eliminated Players: After a week 8 that generated no new zombie players, week 9 was a bloodbath. Three new players—Sam Darnold, Bailey Zappe, and Cooper Kupp—are no longer rostered on any living teams, swelling the zombie rolls to eight.
The Biggest Mistake: Jerry Jeudy (102 rosterers) and Justin Jefferson (1065 rosterers) are clearly the biggest mistakes among commonly-rostered players, with survival rates of 3.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Bad year for the letter J.
The Survivor: We lost the 30% survivors this week. Despite a mediocre week, Puka Nacua is at the top of the list with a 29.8% survival rate, doubling up the overall 14.7% rate (the only player to do so).
The Bargain: It’s Nacua’s world, we’re just living in it. Michael Wilson is the only other $3 player with a survival rate over 25%.
The Parasite: Leonard Fournette still hasn’t scored a single point (although I think that will change soon), but somehow his teams have a 23.6% survival rate, well above average. I assume he’ll suit up soon, though, and that remarkable achievement of non-contribution will end.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
138 vs 117 final woot! 1/1.5PPR from Wilson and Conklin on the Rudderless Jets adds up!
The Lions are my primary engine for high scoring (Goff, Gibbs, LaPorta) so I'm guardedly optimistic to make the finals.
Bye Weeks Remaining....
10 KC LAR MIA PHI - should impact the cut lion significantly....I have Mostert and Philly's kicker
11 ATL IND NEP NOR - less of a cut line impact....Zeke Elliott only
12 NO BYES - low scores beware during "no bye 'mageddon"
13 BAL BUF CHI LV MIN NYG - bye mageddon part deux - Gabe Davis [Waller]
14 AZ WAS - oh noess Dotson bye week!
The Lions are my primary engine for high scoring (Goff, Gibbs, LaPorta) so I'm guardedly optimistic to make the finals.
Bye Weeks Remaining....
10 KC LAR MIA PHI - should impact the cut lion significantly....I have Mostert and Philly's kicker
11 ATL IND NEP NOR - less of a cut line impact....Zeke Elliott only
12 NO BYES - low scores beware during "no bye 'mageddon"
13 BAL BUF CHI LV MIN NYG - bye mageddon part deux - Gabe Davis [Waller]
14 AZ WAS - oh noess Dotson bye week!
PIK95
Footballguy
I have Mostert, Swift, and Puka on bye. Waller is my first big injury this year. I'm in trouble. I only rostered four RB's total. My other rb's are Etienne and James Cook. Need Josh Allen and Ridley to blow up finally. Dotson and Musgrave to keep it going! Garrett Wilson, Flowers, Downs, Doubs, or Mims please let's go.
I'm in trouble.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Week 9 started with 23 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @JaBoo @Galileo @Parmcat @themeanmachine
Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @QuizGuy66 @Puppies @cstruk @ZWK @Kruegs @scottybo @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @apalmer @firstseason1988 @Shaunz33 @wollac @SeniorVBDStudent @bamabuddha
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00 @Deamon
Page 7 - @HairySasquatch
Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @HairySasquatch with 186.90 points, but I'm not even sure he/she knows they are in this contest
- Our lowest survivor was @Deamon who was right on the cut line with 117.70
- The overall contest survival rate is 14.66%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 48.72%.
Bring on week 10!
Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @QuizGuy66 @Puppies @cstruk @ZWK @Kruegs @scottybo @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @apalmer @firstseason1988 @Shaunz33 @wollac @SeniorVBDStudent @bamabuddha
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00 @Deamon
Page 7 - @HairySasquatch
Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @HairySasquatch with 186.90 points, but I'm not even sure he/she knows they are in this contest
- Our lowest survivor was @Deamon who was right on the cut line with 117.70
- The overall contest survival rate is 14.66%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 48.72%.
Bring on week 10!
Nice!
jdkapow
Footballguy
Week 10 is my no-Tyreek week, so I’ve always been nervous about it. But I should be fine with Davis, Pickens and Flowers, the guys who gave me a total of 4 points this week, right? Right?
Stafford’s the only other bye, and I’ll be Waller-less I assume.
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