7 strong hunches for 2012 season (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

7 strong hunches for 2012 season

Don Banks

The NFL is both beloved and exalted in the pantheon of spectator sports because absolutely no one knows what will unfold from week to week. But that doesn't stop us from predicting up a storm when it comes to the season just ahead. More than two months away from the full-scale opening of training camps, here are seven strong hunches we're willing to share in a bold foretelling of 2012's storylines to come:

• News flash: The Bills are closer to dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East than the big, brash Jets. Rex Ryan might love his team, or at least profess to, but it says right here they're not even the second-best team in the state of New York. That would be the long-downtrodden Bills, who can rightfully lay claim to having the best offseason in the league. After 12 playoff-less seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL, there's hope again in Buffalo. And this time, it's there for good reason.

While the second-place Jets (8-8 in 2011) were busy creating a potential team-splitting quarterback controversy for themselves with the Tim Tebow trade, not to mention the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples), the fourth-place Bills (6-10) were adding and retaining quality pieces to the puzzle at every turn. Be it their re-signing of key veterans Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson or Scott Chandler, their drafting of talents such as Stephon Gilmore, Cordy Glenn and T.J. Graham, or their headline acquisitions of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Vince Young in free agency, the Bills have made moves to get better. Maybe a lot better.

The Jets? They've made a messy locker room situation that much messier. Life under Ryan in New York will never be friction-free, but pouring gas on the fire and expecting things to settle down is a curious approach to say the least.

• Blaine Gabbert will lose his starting quarterback job to Chad Henne by Week 3 (of the preseason). Remember when the Jaguars were trying to decide how much they wanted to go after Tim Tebow in trade earlier this offseason, a competition they ultimately lost to the New York Jets? There were those inside the Jacksonville organization who were ambivalent about the move, believing that even with Tebow on board, Henne, the ex-Dolphins starter, would beat out both players by late August. Let's just say that sentiment hasn't changed with Henne now competing only against Gabbert, the team's first-round pick in 2011.

New head coach Mike Mularkey says there's no quarterback competition between Gabbert and Henne, but that's what he has to say right now. Gabbert is in fragile condition after a brutal rookie season, and there's no reason to further shake his confidence. But all you really need to know is that Jaguars coaches have been working with Gabbert to re-teach him some fundamentals and hone his drops and balance in the pocket. That's not really what you want to hear about your starting quarterback as he enters year two of his career, after going 10th overall in the draft.

It may be Gabbert's team and Gabbert's job in mid-May. But by the time summer is drawing to a close, it'll be clear that Henne is the best man to run Mularkey's offense.

• The Bucs will start fast and be one of the surprise stories in the season's first half, feeding off Greg Schiano's energy and a last-place schedule. Even though they were 4-2 at one point last season, the Bucs of 2011 played an undisciplined style of ball and couldn't finish what they started. That won't be the issue under the business-like and highly driven Schiano, who demands a lot from his teams, and then holds folks accountable if they underachieve. The Schiano effect has already been felt in the locker room, with fourth-year quarterback Josh Freeman shedding 20 pounds to get into better shape, and team captain Ronde Barber lauding his new head coach's no-nonsense approach.

Tampa Bay may not be able to pull off the whole worst-to-first turnaround this season, but I think they're going to be in playoff contention into December in the rugged NFC South. The Bucs open with four of their first six games at home, and if they can create some momentum, who knows where that might lead? Just two of Tampa Bay's first 10 opponents made the playoffs last season, and four of their six tough NFC South games fall from mid-November on. It's a decent recipe for a bounce-back year, and with a big-name free-agent haul and a well-received draft class, the Schiano-led Bucs are headed back up.

• Chad Ochocinco (or whatever he's calling himself these days) won't be around to see another burst of fall foliage in New England. Unless the Patriots make NFL history and decide to keep eight receivers, or a couple pass-catchers go down in camp with season-ending injuries, the math doesn't add up for Chad. In English or Spanish. New England is beyond loaded with bodies at receiver, and Ochocinco was essentially dead weight all of last season.

That realization is only going to get driven home all the more dramatically once training camp opens and No. 85 is out there trying to compete with the likes of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Anthony Gonzalez, Julian Edelman, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Matthew Slater. Pay cut to $1 million or not, Ochocinco is still over-priced by New England's typical produce-or-be-gone standards. He and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick have always been chummy and all, but shockingly, there's a limit to B.B.'s warm and fuzzy side. And in this case, it's a 53-man limit.

• Randy Moss' impact in San Francisco will be a lot closer to his 2010 tenure in Minnesota and Tennessee than his 2007-2009 production in New England. Moss is notorious for playing up (or down) to the level of the team around him, and he's with a legit Super Bowl contender in Jim Harbaugh's 49ers. That's the good news. But he's also 35, coming off a year's retirement, and finds himself playing in an offensive system that greatly values running the ball and the short to intermediate passing game. Honestly now, do you see Alex Smith and Moss reprising the 1998 Vikings, with Randall Cunningham and Moss connecting on playground go patterns all day? I don't. Not even a little bit.

Moss might have his moments, and his game days where he reminds us of his brilliant play-making past, but I'm not feeling a full-blown renaissance or Comeback-Player-of-the-Year type season in the offing. With San Francisco now having him, Mario Manningham, Michael Crabtree, A.J. Jenkins and Kyle Williams to throw to, not to mention tight end Vernon Davis, there might not be enough action to keep Moss interested and motivated throughout the course of 16 games. And we know where that can lead, one-year break from the game or not.

Moss in the guise of a content and productive role player is one assignment we've never seen him successfully pull off. Until we do, I'm dubious.

• Juan Castillo will be hailed as a much improved defensive coordinator in year two, thanks to better players. Every coach's intelligence level is tied to his team's win-loss record to some degree, but the wisdom of moving Castillo from offensive line coach to defensive coordinator last year in Philadelphia was thought one of the all-time dumb moves -- at least during the Eagles' dismal 4-8 start to its "dream'' season. Funny, but the risky manuever got a little smarter looking when Philly finished the year with four consecutive victories to even things out at 8-8.

Castillo will be accorded even smarter status this year, and if the revamped Eagles defense starts quickly, don't be surprised if the words "stroke of genius'' are employed at some point to describe his 2011 promotion. At least Philadelphia went out and got their DC some IQ helpers this offseason, trading for veteran middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans, and then splurging on defense in the draft, with the first four rounds bringing to town defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, linebacker Mychal Kendricks, defensive end Vinny Curry and cornerback Brandon Boykin.

If the Eagles can get better play at safety, and make all those blown fourth-quarter leads a distant memory, Castillo's unit might vie for the league's most improved defense in 2012.

• Mohamed Sanu will be the second consecutive Bengals rookie receiver to show up and show up early. Karma owes Sanu a little something-something after he endured that cruel prank phone call on the first night of last month's draft, and I believe he's going to wind up having the last laugh when it comes to his career in Cincinnati starting roughly 24 hours later than he was first led to believe. The ex-Rutgers receiver is already off to an impressive start, easily standing out at last weekend's Bengals rookie minicamp, drawing both praise and a prediction of early contributions from head coach Marvin Lewis.

Cincinnati has a decent history of rookie impact from receivers, getting that monster debut season from first-rounder A.J. Green last year (65 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns), and a seven-touchdown showing from third-rounder Chris Henry in 2005. Sanu is an ideal complement to Green's outside speed and vertical game, and he'll work the inside and underneath routes with both precision and determination, pulling down plenty of catches in a crowd or despite solid coverage. NFL scouts worried about his ability to separate this spring, but come September, Sanu will be putting plenty of distance between himself and most of the league's other rookie receivers.

 

[Sabertooth]

I agree with all of these. Especially about Buffalo. They are going to be a force on defense in fantasy this season. Top 5 I bet in some formats.

 

[Tomfin2000]

They all seem pretty reasonable to me as well except for Gabbert. He probably SHOULD be benched in favor of Henne by the third week of the preseason, but I don't think that will happen with Gene Smith still here. Now, if they want to fire Smith AND bench Gabbert by the third week of the preseason, the whole town might have to take the day off and celebrate, because it will be the first time in a decade this franchise showed some cajones.

(I'm from Jax, and we've been the laughing stock of the league (albiet well deserved) long enough.)

 

[Sabertooth]

They all seem pretty reasonable to me as well except for Gabbert. He probably SHOULD be benched in favor of Henne by the third week of the preseason, but I don't think that will happen with Gene Smith still here. Now, if they want to fire Smith AND bench Gabbert by the third week of the preseason, the whole town might have to take the day off and celebrate, because it will be the first time in a decade this franchise showed some cajones.(I'm from Jax, and we've been the laughing stock of the league (albiet well deserved) long enough.)

New ownership might play a role in that. Of course they might want to keep the photogenic Gabbert as the face of the franchise too.

 

[bengalbuck]

I'm not sold on Tampa being a quick turnaround, even though I liked their draft. They still have a ton of holes on defense, especially at CB. I don't think their offense will be great even with Martin and VJax.

Plus, while some of those teams on the early schedule didn't make the playoffs, they still have talent. The "easy" early schedule goes Carolina, @Giants, @Cowboys out of the gate. That looks more like 1-2 or 0-3 to me than a fast start. Among the other non-playoff teams which allegedly make their schedule easy, they face teams like Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Diego, etc.

Looking at it, I actually think their schedule is pretty brutal. That's a very tough division. They play the whole NFC East, which is very good, and the whole AFC West, which could also be tough with Peyton in Denver, KC getting Charles/Berry/Moeaki/Cassell back healthy (and really beefing up both the O and D lines), Rivers likely having a better season, etc.

Tampa seems headed in the right direction, but that looks like a 5-11 type of schedule.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Let's wait to see how Fitzpatrick plays before crowning them anything. I love Buffalo's offseason, but if Fitz plays like he did the 2nd half of the season, they'll be watching the playoffs from home again.

 

[Dragon1952]

The calls on Gabbert and Ochocinco aren't very risky hunches, especially Ocho.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

The calls on Gabbert and Ochocinco aren't very risky hunches, especially Ocho.

Same on Moss.

 

[Faust]

The article was called "7 strong hunches", not "7 risky hunches".

 

[Tomfin2000]

They all seem pretty reasonable to me as well except for Gabbert. He probably SHOULD be benched in favor of Henne by the third week of the preseason, but I don't think that will happen with Gene Smith still here. Now, if they want to fire Smith AND bench Gabbert by the third week of the preseason, the whole town might have to take the day off and celebrate, because it will be the first time in a decade this franchise showed some cajones.(I'm from Jax, and we've been the laughing stock of the league (albiet well deserved) long enough.)

New ownership might play a role in that. Of course they might want to keep the photogenic Gabbert as the face of the franchise too.

Thank you! I needed a good laugh, and that's the best one I've had in awhile!

 

[Dragon1952]

The article was called "7 strong hunches", not "7 risky hunches".

I know, but you don't have to be a sportswriter to figure those out.....why even waste paper. He might as well call some of them 'foregone conclusions'

 

[Faust]

The article was called "7 strong hunches", not "7 risky hunches".

I know, but you don't have to be a sportswriter to figure those out.....why even waste paper. He might as well call some of them 'foregone conclusions'

 

[Donnybrook]

7 strong hunches for 2012 season

Don Banks

The NFL is both beloved and exalted in the pantheon of spectator sports because absolutely no one knows what will unfold from week to week. But that doesn't stop us from predicting up a storm when it comes to the season just ahead. More than two months away from the full-scale opening of training camps, here are seven strong hunches we're willing to share in a bold foretelling of 2012's storylines to come:

• News flash: The Bills are closer to dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East than the big, brash Jets. Rex Ryan might love his team, or at least profess to, but it says right here they're not even the second-best team in the state of New York. That would be the long-downtrodden Bills, who can rightfully lay claim to having the best offseason in the league. After 12 playoff-less seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL, there's hope again in Buffalo. And this time, it's there for good reason.

While the second-place Jets (8-8 in 2011) were busy creating a potential team-splitting quarterback controversy for themselves with the Tim Tebow trade, not to mention the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples), the fourth-place Bills (6-10) were adding and retaining quality pieces to the puzzle at every turn. Be it their re-signing of key veterans Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson or Scott Chandler, their drafting of talents such as Stephon Gilmore, Cordy Glenn and T.J. Graham, or their headline acquisitions of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Vince Young in free agency, the Bills have made moves to get better. Maybe a lot better.

The Jets? They've made a messy locker room situation that much messier. Life under Ryan in New York will never be friction-free, but pouring gas on the fire and expecting things to settle down is a curious approach to say the least.

I agree with most of this. Call me crazy but I actually believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick broken rib was the most significant reason for Buffalo decline in mid season. The Bills did upset the Patriots at home last season. It really depends on whether the Patriots have or can improved their pass rush significantly. If not, Fitzpatrick is still capable of picking their secondary apart.I disagree with "the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples)". According to most draft experts, Couples looked at his best when he played DT in his junior year. I think it as much of a stretch that Banks is making it out to be. If Couples is talented, it will make no difference where they line him up.

 

[Sabertooth]

They all seem pretty reasonable to me as well except for Gabbert. He probably SHOULD be benched in favor of Henne by the third week of the preseason, but I don't think that will happen with Gene Smith still here. Now, if they want to fire Smith AND bench Gabbert by the third week of the preseason, the whole town might have to take the day off and celebrate, because it will be the first time in a decade this franchise showed some cajones.(I'm from Jax, and we've been the laughing stock of the league (albiet well deserved) long enough.)

New ownership might play a role in that. Of course they might want to keep the photogenic Gabbert as the face of the franchise too.

Thank you! I needed a good laugh, and that's the best one I've had in awhile!

Do you not think Z score plays a role in a team with attendance issues? Or do you not think martketting is a driving force behind running a successful business. Lots goes into these decisions. And there are going to be factors outside of on-field performance that dictate. Having a young kid grow into a star is in the best interest of everyone involved not names Henne. So he's going to get every opportunity to grow. Now, whether that means playing on the field or riding the pine watching Henne remains to be seen.

 

[Sabertooth]

7 strong hunches for 2012 season

Don Banks

The NFL is both beloved and exalted in the pantheon of spectator sports because absolutely no one knows what will unfold from week to week. But that doesn't stop us from predicting up a storm when it comes to the season just ahead. More than two months away from the full-scale opening of training camps, here are seven strong hunches we're willing to share in a bold foretelling of 2012's storylines to come:

• News flash: The Bills are closer to dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East than the big, brash Jets. Rex Ryan might love his team, or at least profess to, but it says right here they're not even the second-best team in the state of New York. That would be the long-downtrodden Bills, who can rightfully lay claim to having the best offseason in the league. After 12 playoff-less seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL, there's hope again in Buffalo. And this time, it's there for good reason.

While the second-place Jets (8-8 in 2011) were busy creating a potential team-splitting quarterback controversy for themselves with the Tim Tebow trade, not to mention the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples), the fourth-place Bills (6-10) were adding and retaining quality pieces to the puzzle at every turn. Be it their re-signing of key veterans Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson or Scott Chandler, their drafting of talents such as Stephon Gilmore, Cordy Glenn and T.J. Graham, or their headline acquisitions of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Vince Young in free agency, the Bills have made moves to get better. Maybe a lot better.

The Jets? They've made a messy locker room situation that much messier. Life under Ryan in New York will never be friction-free, but pouring gas on the fire and expecting things to settle down is a curious approach to say the least.

I agree with most of this. Call me crazy but I actually believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick broken rib was the most significant reason for Buffalo decline in mid season. The Bills did upset the Patriots at home last season. It really depends on whether the Patriots have or can improved their pass rush significantly. If not, Fitzpatrick is still capable of picking their secondary apart.I disagree with "the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples)". According to most draft experts, Couples looked at his best when he played DT in his junior year. I think it as much of a stretch that Banks is making it out to be. If Couples is talented, it will make no difference where they line him up.

Aaron Kampman disagrees. The Packers decision to switch to a 3-4 screwed his entire career. He went from being the best player on the defense to being a mediocre linebacker, to Jacksonville, where he watched the defense he led for years win the Super Bowl without him.

 

[Donnybrook]

7 strong hunches for 2012 season

Don Banks

The NFL is both beloved and exalted in the pantheon of spectator sports because absolutely no one knows what will unfold from week to week. But that doesn't stop us from predicting up a storm when it comes to the season just ahead. More than two months away from the full-scale opening of training camps, here are seven strong hunches we're willing to share in a bold foretelling of 2012's storylines to come:

• News flash: The Bills are closer to dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East than the big, brash Jets. Rex Ryan might love his team, or at least profess to, but it says right here they're not even the second-best team in the state of New York. That would be the long-downtrodden Bills, who can rightfully lay claim to having the best offseason in the league. After 12 playoff-less seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL, there's hope again in Buffalo. And this time, it's there for good reason.

While the second-place Jets (8-8 in 2011) were busy creating a potential team-splitting quarterback controversy for themselves with the Tim Tebow trade, not to mention the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples), the fourth-place Bills (6-10) were adding and retaining quality pieces to the puzzle at every turn. Be it their re-signing of key veterans Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson or Scott Chandler, their drafting of talents such as Stephon Gilmore, Cordy Glenn and T.J. Graham, or their headline acquisitions of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Vince Young in free agency, the Bills have made moves to get better. Maybe a lot better.

The Jets? They've made a messy locker room situation that much messier. Life under Ryan in New York will never be friction-free, but pouring gas on the fire and expecting things to settle down is a curious approach to say the least.

I agree with most of this. Call me crazy but I actually believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick broken rib was the most significant reason for Buffalo decline in mid season. The Bills did upset the Patriots at home last season. It really depends on whether the Patriots have or can improved their pass rush significantly. If not, Fitzpatrick is still capable of picking their secondary apart.I disagree with "the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples)". According to most draft experts, Couples looked at his best when he played DT in his junior year. I think it as much of a stretch that Banks is making it out to be. If Couples is talented, it will make no difference where they line him up.

Aaron Kampman disagrees. The Packers decision to switch to a 3-4 screwed his entire career. He went from being the best player on the defense to being a mediocre linebacker, to Jacksonville, where he watched the defense he led for years win the Super Bowl without him.

What does Aaron Kampman have to do with it? He transition from a 43 DE to a 34 LB. That is totally different than Couples. Couples like JJ Watt will be going from 43 DE to 34 DE. He will be no longer a player to have in your IDP league but he still could have a good NFL career.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Also I'm pretty sure getting hurt every season did more to screw Kampman's career than the 9 games he played at OLB.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

Yeah, I have a strong hunch Randy Moss will come nowhere close to the Moss of old. Maybe not right away but past experience tells us he'll become disgruntled and unmotivated to play. Thank god they didn't pay a lot for him. If he starts with any antics I'm sure he won't be around long. Yet, if he understands that he's older,coming outta retirement and realizes & accepts what their role for him will be he could do ok and possibly get himself a SB ring.

 

[dhockster]

I agree with all of these. Especially about Buffalo. They are going to be a force on defense in fantasy this season. Top 5 I bet in some formats.

Please post if/when Mario Williams get hurt. Also, I don't think Vince Young upgrades the team at all after his pathetic back-up showing in Philly. Chan Gailey does not inspire me as a coach. I see Buffalo going 8-8 at best.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I agree with all of these. Especially about Buffalo. They are going to be a force on defense in fantasy this season. Top 5 I bet in some formats.

Please post if/when Mario Williams get hurt. Also, I don't think Vince Young upgrades the team at all after his pathetic back-up showing in Philly. Chan Gailey does not inspire me as a coach. I see Buffalo going 8-8 at best.

And that still may make Buffalo, the second best team in NY.

 

[msommer]

They all seem pretty reasonable to me as well except for Gabbert. He probably SHOULD be benched in favor of Henne by the third week of the preseason, but I don't think that will happen with Gene Smith still here. Now, if they want to fire Smith AND bench Gabbert by the third week of the preseason, the whole town might have to take the day off and celebrate, because it will be the first time in a decade this franchise showed some cajones.(I'm from Jax, and we've been the laughing stock of the league (albiet well deserved) long enough.)

New ownership might play a role in that. Of course they might want to keep the photogenic Gabbert as the face of the franchise too.

Just not a believer in Henne either. Actually, as a TEN fan, this situation brings a (small) smile to my face

 

[dhockster]

I agree with all of these. Especially about Buffalo. They are going to be a force on defense in fantasy this season. Top 5 I bet in some formats.

Please post if/when Mario Williams get hurt. Also, I don't think Vince Young upgrades the team at all after his pathetic back-up showing in Philly. Chan Gailey does not inspire me as a coach. I see Buffalo going 8-8 at best.

And that still may make Buffalo, the second best team in NY.

You have a point there.

 

[Sweet Love]

I love the Moss comment:

He will be closer to the worst year he had in his career versus the best....kinda like saying Betty White won't die tomorrow, but hey, she is gonna die. I love crap like this...he literally told us nothing about what he or anyone expects (or could expect) from Moss except he will not have the best season for a WR...thanks for the info.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I agree with all of these. Especially about Buffalo. They are going to be a force on defense in fantasy this season. Top 5 I bet in some formats.

Please post if/when Mario Williams get hurt. Also, I don't think Vince Young upgrades the team at all after his pathetic back-up showing in Philly. Chan Gailey does not inspire me as a coach. I see Buffalo going 8-8 at best.

I've learned not to get my hopes up about the Bills and Mario Williams's injury history is definitely a concern to me, but I don't think that anyone really sees anything in the Vince Young signing other than he's better than Tyler Thigpen and he fits in Chan Gailey's idea of a QB well. And you're certainly entitled to your opinion on Gailey, but I think he does a pretty good job. The Bills made excellent adjustments in game all last year. And I would think that most people would portray last year's team as being over achievers in a lot of ways. Those are indicators of a good coach IMO.

 

[JaxBill]

I know it's popular to kick Gabbert while he's down but I love the logic that because the new coaching staff is trying to stress fundamentals and improved footwork to the second-year QB, it's a sure sign that he'll be benched.

 

[dhockster]

I agree with all of these. Especially about Buffalo. They are going to be a force on defense in fantasy this season. Top 5 I bet in some formats.

Please post if/when Mario Williams get hurt. Also, I don't think Vince Young upgrades the team at all after his pathetic back-up showing in Philly. Chan Gailey does not inspire me as a coach. I see Buffalo going 8-8 at best.

I've learned not to get my hopes up about the Bills and Mario Williams's injury history is definitely a concern to me, but I don't think that anyone really sees anything in the Vince Young signing other than he's better than Tyler Thigpen and he fits in Chan Gailey's idea of a QB well. And you're certainly entitled to your opinion on Gailey, but I think he does a pretty good job. The Bills made excellent adjustments in game all last year. And I would think that most people would portray last year's team as being over achievers in a lot of ways. Those are indicators of a good coach IMO.

I mentioned Vince Young only because the author of the piece mentioned him as one of their free agent signings that would improve the team. I don't have anything against the Bills, they just don't have anything on the team that really excites me. Hey, sometimes those are the best teams.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

Let's wait to see how Fitzpatrick plays before crowning them anything. I love Buffalo's offseason, but if Fitz plays like he did the 2nd half of the season, they'll be watching the playoffs from home again.

it also should be noted that the Bills offensive line is among the league's worst units. Even after adding Cordy Glenn at left tackle they are short on top talent. When your best lineman is andy levitre there is problem.

 

[RUSF18]

Pretty clear that he included the Moss comment (as well as 85, really) because he's an easy guy to build a conversation around. I don't even think the 49ers expect much out of him. There's some thoughts out there that he may not even make the team out of camp.

 

[Spike]

I'm not saying the Bills D won't be markedly improved, but I just hope people learned the lesson the Eagles D gave us last season.

Consensus top 3 D pick in redrafts. How's they turn out?

It might take a year for them (Buffalo's D) to gel.

 

[Jason Wood]

I like Banks well enough, but I would say the only one of those hunches that's really out on a limb is the call re: Sanu.

 

[Jaruta]

I think the Dolphins are closer to winning the AFC East than the Jets and Bills are.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I'm not saying the Bills D won't be markedly improved, but I just hope people learned the lesson the Eagles D gave us last season.Consensus top 3 D pick in redrafts. How's they turn out?It might take a year for them (Buffalo's D) to gel.

Philly 2011 defensive ranks: 21st in pts, 12th in yardsPhilly 2012 defensive ranks: 10th in pts, 8th in yardsThey did much better. Offensively, they weren't as good. Too many turnovers.

 

[Dragon1952]

I'm not saying the Bills D won't be markedly improved, but I just hope people learned the lesson the Eagles D gave us last season.

Consensus top 3 D pick in redrafts. How's they turn out?

It might take a year for them (Buffalo's D) to gel.

Philly 2011 defensive ranks: 21st in pts, 12th in yardsPhilly 2012 defensive ranks: 10th in pts, 8th in yards

They did much better. Offensively, they weren't as good. Too many turnovers.

Cool.....Back to the Future....one of my favorite movies

 

[Clutchfanatic]

The calls on Gabbert and Ochocinco aren't very risky hunches, especially Ocho.

Same on Moss.

Yeah. No doubt. Boy......this guy really put himself out there.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Let's wait to see how Fitzpatrick plays before crowning them anything. I love Buffalo's offseason, but if Fitz plays like he did the 2nd half of the season, they'll be watching the playoffs from home again.

it also should be noted that the Bills offensive line is among the league's worst units. Even after adding Cordy Glenn at left tackle they are short on top talent. When your best lineman is andy levitre there is problem.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree here. Eric Wood is pretty good and Levitre is a top 5 LG in the league. PFF ranked them the #1 offensive line last year. I believe Football Outsiders also had them ranked very highly. Now, part of that is that Chan Gailey's system helps the O-line by using fast developing plays, but the run blocking was also very good.So no, their O-line most likely won't be a major problem for this team this year.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I'm not saying the Bills D won't be markedly improved, but I just hope people learned the lesson the Eagles D gave us last season.Consensus top 3 D pick in redrafts. How's they turn out?It might take a year for them (Buffalo's D) to gel.

That's possible, but Buffalo will also have a full offseason, unlike the Eagles. That's a huge benefit. The Eagles also had a defensive coordinator that had never even coached that side of the ball before and who was forced to shoehorn a bunch of guys into schemes that didn't fit them due to Andy Reid giving too much control of the defense to Washburn.But there certainly could be some growing pains. Gailey has done a pretty good job of trying to put guys in position to succeed. Which is why the 3-4 is out and Wanny and the 4-3 is in. So I don't anticipate doing stuff like forcing one of the best CBs in the game to play a type of coverage he isn't comfortable with and isn't as skilled at.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

PFF ranked them the #1 offensive line last year. I believe Football Outsiders also had them ranked very highly.

They are wrong. Compare the Bills offensive line to their defensive line that's what premium talent looks like.I like Andy and Eric but these guys are not exactly Carl Nicks and Nick Mangold. Cordy might be Marcus McNeil but it will take 3 seasons for that to happen.

 

[karl722]

I think the Dolphins are closer to winning the AFC East than the Jets and Bills are.

You've got to give us a reason why you think this, that's a pretty strong opion to just leave it hanging out there. Enlighten the masses please!

 

[GroveDiesel]

PFF ranked them the #1 offensive line last year. I believe Football Outsiders also had them ranked very highly.

They are wrong. Compare the Bills offensive line to their defensive line that's what premium talent looks like.I like Andy and Eric but these guys are not exactly Carl Nicks and Nick Mangold. Cordy might be Marcus McNeil but it will take 3 seasons for that to happen.

Well, Mangold and Nicks are the best at their positions, so that's fair to say that Levitre and Wood aren't those guys. Although few people appreciate just how dominant Levitre was early last year before he had to start moving all over the place. But Wood and Levitre are both still pretty good.And offensive lines aren't just about individual talent. Buffalo gave up the least number of sacks in the NFL last year despite facing one of the hardest slates of pass rushers. And they also ran the ball pretty darn well too. I think those two things alone tell us quite a bit about how good Buffalo's offensive line is.And lastly, PFF and FO watch every single player on every single snap and rate each play for that player. If you're going to disagree with those guys, that's fine, but you'd better come up with a whole lot more than what you have given us so far. Especially when the raw stats already back them up.Buffalo's O-line has been bad for so long that it's easy to just assume they're still bad, but anyone that watched quite a bit of their games last year can tell you that the offensive line played well as a unit and was more of a positive than a negative. The only game they were really bad in when was when they played Levitre at center when Wood got hurt. That was a disaster.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

Well, Mangold and Nicks are the best at their positions, so that's fair to say that Levitre and Wood aren't those guys. Although few people appreciate just how dominant Levitre was early last year before he had to start moving all over the place. But Wood and Levitre are both still pretty good.

the fact that Levitre had to move all over the place is one of the reasons why the Buffalo line isn't good. Cohesion is very important and any line that's replacing their left tackle with a 2nd round draft pick is not among the league's best (Pittsburgh is in the same boat). They might be great in a few years but right now it's a transition.

And offensive lines aren't just about individual talent. Buffalo gave up the least number of sacks in the NFL last year despite facing one of the hardest slates of pass rushers.

it can be argued that these low sack numbers were due to the system (quick hitters) and Fitz's release.

And they also ran the ball pretty darn well too. I think those two things alone tell us quite a bit about how good Buffalo's offensive line is.

how they ran last year tells us (a little) about how last's year's line was. Last year is over. It's not the same line.

And lastly, PFF and FO watch every single player on every single snap and rate each play for that player. If you're going to disagree with those guys, that's fine, but you'd better come up with a whole lot more than what you have given us so far. Especially when the raw stats already back them up.

im tired of everyone sucking up to these sites. These guys do a great job but their site is not the be all and end all of football. They rely on stats and math but they don't look at what causes the stats. A quarterback gets sacked, is that the QB's fault the LT's fault, the WR's fault, the coach's fault? PFF and FO doesn't know. I wrote a team-by-team analysis that is over 10,000 words long. I graded every starter, every swing tackle, every OL Coach and also assigned a grade for cohesion. I wrote a 3,000+ word article explaining my methodology. It's all going to be published soon and I hope everyone gets a chance to read it.

Buffalo's O-line has been bad for so long that it's easy to just assume they're still bad, but anyone that watched quite a bit of their games last year can tell you that the offensive line played well as a unit and was more of a positive than a negative. The only game they were really bad in when was when they played Levitre at center when Wood got hurt. That was a disaster.

you are a fan and I understand what that's like. you are looking at it through the eyes of a fan. Let's look around the league, do the Bills compare to the Titans? THe Titans signed 7x All-Pro Hutchinson to go with 4x All Pro Roos, 1x All Pro Stewart and Harris/Amano at the other spots. Levitre/Wood are comparable to Harris/Amano. the difference is the Bills is they don't have any All Pro's, Pro Bowlers at the other 3 spots. They have players that are worse than Levitre and Wood. That's the highlight of their line. On other lines these guys would be the solid reliable players that support the studs. or just look at the Bills defensive line for an example of quality. They signed Mario Williams to a huge contract. they took Dareus with a top 3 pick. They have Kyle Williams with a Pro Bowl resume. That's a high quality unit. the Bills didn't spend that kind of money on their O-line. they didn't sign Carl Nicks. They signed Mario Williams instead. Keep in mind that another team DID sign Carl Nicks and that line is many tiers better than the Bills line.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I don't think you really understand what FO and PFF do. They actually watch every single play for every single team and assign a grade for each player involved in the play. That's not just a bunch of math and statistics. It's some of the most comprehensive breakdowns that exist. And yeah, PFF does actually assign credit and blame on every single play. I'm sure you did that too, right?

Some of your other points are just silly. Who cares about individual awards for players? How does that make a whole unit good? Offensive lines are often more about how a unit as a whole plays, not individual awards of each player. This seems especially true for offensive linemen since most voters show that they have no clue how to grade linemen. Jason Peters was one of the best LTs in the league for about 3 years before he got his due.

As for Levitre moving all over, you do realize that was because of injuries, right? When you have 2 LTs and a center hurt, sometimes guys have to move around a bit. Sure, that speaks to depth and that certainly is an issue for Buffalo, but how that relates to Levitre is a mystery to me.

If you're going to be basing your analysis and writing on which players won which awards in the past, I think I'll go ahead and pass.

As for your last point, I guess the Pats grade pretty low at QB because they have a 6th round QB starting for them, huh? Come on man, ranking units because where guys were drafted? That's just lazy.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

I don't think you really understand what FO and PFF do. They actually watch every single play for every single team and assign a grade for each player involved in the play. And yeah, PFF does actually assign credit and blame on every single play. I'm sure you did that too, right?

I understand what they do, I think their data can be useful but I don't agree with all their conclusions. they don't factor in alot of the intangibles that can't be measured. For example according to their data, Eli Manning was the most pressured quarterback in the league last year. Their line gave up over 100 more pressures than the crosstown Jets. Yet the Giants won the super Bowl and the Jets went 8-8. I think it's safe to say the Jets had a better line than the Giants. But the Giants had a more successful season.

my point? The stats are one thing, the conclusions are another. I might say the Bills have a below average line but that doesn't mean they won't win games.

Some of your other points are just silly. Who cares about individual awards for players? How does that make a whole unit good? Offensive lines are often more about how a unit as a whole plays, not individual awards of each player. This seems especially true for offensive linemen since most voters show that they have no clue how to grade linemen. Jason Peters was one of the best LTs in the league for about 3 years before he got his due.

yes and he did eventually get his due. I will admit that individual awards have their flaws. But let's not sit here and pretend that Andy Levitre is as good as Carl Nicks. Cause he's not and he probably never will be. An All-Pro is usually better than a Pro Bowler, who is usually better than a non Pro Bowler. Are there exceptions sure but they aren't on the Bills.

(I have identified 5 in my rankings that should have at lest Pro Bowl alternates, those players are Andrew Whitworth, Evan Mathis, Chris Snee, Mike Iupati and Andre Smith)

Sure, that speaks to depth and that certainly is an issue for Buffalo, but how that relates to Levitre is a mystery to me.

you took the words out of my mouth, if Buffalo had better depth, they wouldn't have to move Levitre around in the case of injury.

If you're going to be basing your analysis and writing on which players won which awards in the past, I think I'll go ahead and pass.

I'm sorry we couldn't come to a consensus. Let me ask you one more time, directly, do you think the Buffalo Offensive line is in the same class as the Buffalo Defensive line?

The team spent big money and high draft picks on the DL and they went cheap on the OL. There is a difference in quality, and in this league you often get what you pay for. I think you know that deep down but your loyalties as a fan are getting in the way.

People say salary doesn't matter, individual honors don't matter and a team of 5 average paid, low profile linemen can be great. I think that's a stretch. The Chargers line isn't as good as the Titans line.

As for your last point, I guess the Pats grade pretty low at QB because they have a 6th round QB starting for them, huh? Come on man, ranking units because where guys were drafted? That's just lazy.

If we were grading Tom Brady as a 6th round rookie, that's fair. in the year 2000, Brady total stats were 1-3 for 6 yards. Jason Peters was an undrafted tight end but he wasn't an all Pro in year 1. that's what I'm saying. Cordy Glenn might be awesome when he matures up, this year it's gonna be up and down.

 

[Obie Wan]

Let's wait to see how Fitzpatrick plays before crowning them anything. I love Buffalo's offseason, but if Fitz plays like he did the 2nd half of the season, they'll be watching the playoffs from home again.

Fitz may be watching form the couch- but the Bills will be in the playoffs led by Vince (all he does is win) Young

 

[GroveDiesel]

I saw this article by Daniel Jeremiah this weekend and it made me think of the back and forth in this thread.

Bronze: Carl Nicks , OG, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There was a long list of candidates for this last spot on the podium. The offensive and defensive line coaches that I spoke with were very high on Ravens guard Marshal Yanda . Another name that kept popping up was a bit of a sleeper on the national scene: Bills center Eric Wood

LINKLike I said, Levitre and Wood may not be Mangold and Nicks, but they're both VERY good offensive linemen that are underrated by the media and fans. The league's GMs, coaches and scouts know how good they are though. Perhaps the chattering monkeys in the media will get it figured out and give them their due as well eventually.

Either way, any "experts" in fantasy football that are knocking Buffalo down a peg due to their O-line are missing the boat and doing their readers a disservice. The only possible justification would be if you assumed to Cordy Glenn will be an absolute disaster at LT and that Hairston won't be able to perform to the same adequate level he performed to last year.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

Either way, any "experts" in fantasy football that are knocking Buffalo down a peg due to their O-line are missing the boat and doing their readers a disservice. The only possible justification would be if you assumed to Cordy Glenn will be an absolute disaster at LT and that Hairston won't be able to perform to the same adequate level he performed to last year.

glenn won't be a disaster but like every rookie he will have his ups and downs and there's a real chance he will hit the rookie wall. This year Cordy Glenn doesn't get an offseason. He's been going non-stop since the bowl game... senior bowl.. combine.. pro day etc. You keep bringing up Levitre and Wood, those are the BEST players. Erik Pears kinda sux dude. Kraig Urbik is not great. Eric Wood is coming off a torn ACL. Like I said before if Levitre and Wood were the worst players on that line, it would be an elite line. The Bills have no top end talent. the Bills DL, that's a great unit. the OL is below average. Who is the Mario Williams on the Bills OL? It's not Andy friggin lEvitre.put it another way the bills OL is like the Bills DL was 3 years ago. When Kyle Williams was the only decent talent. Levitre is like Kyle Williams. There's nothing wrong with that. In fact they are under-rated valuable players. But there's no Dareus or Mario on this O line.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Either way, any "experts" in fantasy football that are knocking Buffalo down a peg due to their O-line are missing the boat and doing their readers a disservice. The only possible justification would be if you assumed to Cordy Glenn will be an absolute disaster at LT and that Hairston won't be able to perform to the same adequate level he performed to last year.

glenn won't be a disaster but like every rookie he will have his ups and downs and there's a real chance he will hit the rookie wall. This year Cordy Glenn doesn't get an offseason. He's been going non-stop since the bowl game... senior bowl.. combine.. pro day etc. You keep bringing up Levitre and Wood, those are the BEST players. Erik Pears kinda sux dude. Kraig Urbik is not great. Eric Wood is coming off a torn ACL. Like I said before if Levitre and Wood were the worst players on that line, it would be an elite line. The Bills have no top end talent. the Bills DL, that's a great unit. the OL is below average. Who is the Mario Williams on the Bills OL? It's not Andy friggin lEvitre.put it another way the bills OL is like the Bills DL was 3 years ago. When Kyle Williams was the only decent talent. Levitre is like Kyle Williams. There's nothing wrong with that. In fact they are under-rated valuable players. But there's no Dareus or Mario on this O line.

I find it weird that you keep saying that there's "no Mario" on the O-line when Daniel Jeremiah basically says in his article that after talking to a bunch of O-line and D-line coaches in the league, Eric Wood is one of the top 10 offensive linemen in the league. If by "there's no Dareus or Mario" you mean "there's nobody that has the name recognition of those guys" then you are right. But I'd say that not only do Buffalo's numbers last year speak for themselves, but the respect around the league by actual coaches, scouts and GMs for the guys on Buffalo's o-line reveal them to be an upper echelon unit. This will be my last post on the issue. If people want to ignore all the mounting evidence, that's fine. If people want to just paint me as a homer, that's fine. I've been one of the biggest critics of Buffalo's offensive line for a decade. I'm fully aware that their pedigree is not the same as some others. Pears and Urbik aren't world beaters (although both of them are pretty darn good in the running game). And yes, Gailey's offense does benefit the O-line. But all of the guys are good fits for what Gailey wants to do with the offense. They work together well. Most people would say that Jason Peters is one of the top 2 or 3 LTs in the game. So if that's the case, why was Michael Vick sacked and hit so often over the last 2 years? Could it be that the talent of one or 2 guys doesn't determine the success of the O-line as much as the unit playing together, the offense, the QB, etc.? Rather than rating units by the individuals on the line, I think it's better to take a more holistic approach. Offensive line units are difficult to evaluate because it's the one area where one guy by himself can't do it all. One stud WR, QB or RB can make a huge difference and make plays all by himself. A stud DE, DT, or LB can get a sack or make huge plays all by himself. But one o-linemen blows an assignment and it results in a sack. And a stud LT may pancake the RDE, but if the RG misses his block, the QB is still getting blown up. The value of an O-line is often more or less than the sum of all its parts.

 

[hutchins929]

Javid Best, Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure well end up make the Lions a top 10 rushing team. That combined with their prolific passing attack and they will be end with the best offense statistically in the league.

 

[Faust]

Javid Best, Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure well end up make the Lions a top 10 rushing team. That combined with their prolific passing attack and they will be end with the best offense statistically in the league.

As long as they can all stay clear of concussions, other injuries, weed, and other assorted off-field incidents!

 

[houndirish]

I know this is taking it back several posts but anyone knocking the job that Chan Gailey's been doing in Buffalo hasn't been paying close attention.

Gailey's been a strong coach for that squad and he's been doing it under the radar. The Bills will continue to improve this year and might even make the playoffs.

 

[Witz]

• News flash: The Bills are closer to dethroning the mighty Patriots in the AFC East than the big, brash Jets. Rex Ryan might love his team, or at least profess to, but it says right here they're not even the second-best team in the state of New York. That would be the long-downtrodden Bills, who can rightfully lay claim to having the best offseason in the league. After 12 playoff-less seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL, there's hope again in Buffalo. And this time, it's there for good reason.

While the second-place Jets (8-8 in 2011) were busy creating a potential team-splitting quarterback controversy for themselves with the Tim Tebow trade, not to mention the dubious decision to draft a 4-3 defensive end to play in their 3-4 front (Quinton Coples), the fourth-place Bills (6-10) were adding and retaining quality pieces to the puzzle at every turn. Be it their re-signing of key veterans Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson or Scott Chandler, their drafting of talents such as Stephon Gilmore, Cordy Glenn and T.J. Graham, or their headline acquisitions of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Vince Young in free agency, the Bills have made moves to get better. Maybe a lot better.

The Jets? They've made a messy locker room situation that much messier. Life under Ryan in New York will never be friction-free, but pouring gas on the fire and expecting things to settle down is a curious approach to say the least.

Seeing as the Bills are the only team in the state of New York, I'd hope they would be more then the second best team. Maybe he has the New York Dragons rated higher.