ADP's Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)

[thatguy]

Apologies in advance if there is a thread dedicated to this, but I haven't seen one. I've seen the topic touched on to some degree in other threads that are floating around, but I figured this topic deserved it's own thread...

So, I know that his dynasty value is situation dependent... That is to say, in league's that have been going for several years, he is likely worth significantly more or less to certain owners based on team makeup and circumstances.

But, let's say you were starting a new 12 team dynasty league with standard rules/scoring, and knowing only what we know now, where would feel comfortable taking AP? This too is obviously dependent on your managerial strategy (i.e., are you looking to win now, or build for the future, etc.).

Which RB's would you say he is comparable to in terms of value? This I know is tough question, but an important one I think.

And let's say we are talking pre-existing dynasties, what kind of trade value do you think he has? What players would you give up for him (I think for this question it is important to give some information regarding your team makeup; are you rebuilding, contending now, etc.)? What rookie draft picks would you give up for him?

And for AP owners, what would it take for you to let him go?

 

[moderated]

As far as rookie picks I'd rather have Richardson, luck, Blackmon, and rgIII over him, but after that Peterson, so he's worth 1.4-1.5 rookie pick.

In a startup dynasty he'll go in the early to late 3rd round. Most people don't want to invest a top 24 pick in their initial startup on a 27 yr old rb coming off ACL surgery. I wouldn't take him until the 4th, but someone will jump on him once the 3rd round comes around.

He's a great player, but his 2012 season is up in the air and by 2013 he'll be in his late 20's which is suicide for FF value.

 

[thatguy]

Another important, and related, question, I think, is how do you value Gerhart now? As an AP owner, or if you draft AP in a startup, how important is it to also get Gerhart? How much would you give up to acquire him? Of, even if you don't own AP, what would you give up to acquire Gerhart? Let's say you have a strong team, but a solid 3rd RB would put you over the top going into next season, how much would you give up to acquire Gerhart? How confident are you that, if AP misses a good portion of, if not all of, next season, Gerhart will be the primary ball carrier?

A lot of questions I know, but it's really a very complicated matter, and I think these questions are probably on the minds of a lot of dynasty owners right now--both those who own AP, Gerhart, or both, and those who don't...

 

[moderated]

I don't think gerhardt has that much value. He'll start at the beginning of the 2012 season but once AD is back he's worthless unless AD gets hurt again.

Also when he becomes a FA I highly doubt anyone will bring him in as their starting RB.

So he's a handcuff for AD and doesn't have much value to anyone else which limits the market for him.

A desperate AD owner might give up a 2nd round rookie pick for him, but that's the top of his value range.

 

[thatguy]

I don't think gerhardt has that much value. He'll start at the beginning of the 2012 season but once AD is back he's worthless unless AD gets hurt again.Also when he becomes a FA I highly doubt anyone will bring him in as their starting RB.So he's a handcuff for AD and doesn't have much value to anyone else which limits the market for him.A desperate AD owner might give up a 2nd round rookie pick for him, but that's the top of his value range.

Thanks for the responses. Let's say AP is at some point ruled out for all of 2012 and Gerhart is the unquestioned workhorse going into the season... How much value do you think he holds as essentially a one year starting RB for a contending team in need of a solid RB3/flex?

 

[Abraham]

I still have Peterson as a top 10 dynasty rb. People are quick to forget how good he is. Even if he only comes back to 75% of his normal production for four more seasons, that is still 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. I'm not sure how he could fall tithe fourth in a dynasty draft.

 

[moderated]

I don't think gerhardt has that much value. He'll start at the beginning of the 2012 season but once AD is back he's worthless unless AD gets hurt again.Also when he becomes a FA I highly doubt anyone will bring him in as their starting RB.So he's a handcuff for AD and doesn't have much value to anyone else which limits the market for him.A desperate AD owner might give up a 2nd round rookie pick for him, but that's the top of his value range.

Thanks for the responses. Let's say AP is at some point ruled out for all of 2012 and Gerhart is the unquestioned workhorse going into the season... How much value do you think he holds as essentially a one year starting RB for a contending team in need of a solid RB3/flex?

IF Peterson is ruled out for all of 2012, which I highly doubt, then I could see someone parting with a late 1st for him.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Another thing to consider is the possibility the Vikings draft a RB with a high pick this year or next. If they are convinced Richardson is the next AP wouldn't they be smart to draft him? They could also use a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and get a guy that has far more. Ability than gerhart. That may be a smart move as well, as they may not feel good about hitching their running game on the back of Gerhart for a big portion of 2012.

I agree with moderated about his value as well. About 1.5 in the rookie draft, and the 3rd in a startup.

 

[Sabertooth]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Another thing to consider is the possibility the Vikings draft a RB with a high pick this year or next. If they are convinced Richardson is the next AP wouldn't they be smart to draft him? They could also use a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and get a guy that has far more. Ability than gerhart. That may be a smart move as well, as they may not feel good about hitching their running game on the back of Gerhart for a big portion of 2012.I agree with moderated about his value as well. About 1.5 in the rookie draft, and the 3rd in a startup.

The Vikings are a terrible team with a lot of holes, namely on defense, the offensive line, and WR. There is little to no chance that they waste an early pick on a RB. They will go with Gerhart, mix Harvin in, and sign a stopgap RB to fill in until Peterson returns.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How sure are we that he misses time next year? Didn't Welker blow his ACL/MCL in week 17 and play week 1 of the next year? I know RBs do more cutting than WRs, but Welker relies on his knees and quick cuts more than probably any other WR in the league and he was back in time.

 

[rlwomack]

Not that this is big news but the Vikings picked up Jordan Todman who was drafted in the 6th round by San Diego in 2011 draft and was waived on October 22 and resigned to the practice squad.

I have AP in a dynasty auction league that started this year. Trying to figure out his value myself because other than Rice, my RBs are pretty bad. I have Vick that I can move but haven't received much interest in him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Another thing to consider is the possibility the Vikings draft a RB with a high pick this year or next. If they are convinced Richardson is the next AP wouldn't they be smart to draft him? They could also use a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and get a guy that has far more. Ability than gerhart. That may be a smart move as well, as they may not feel good about hitching their running game on the back of Gerhart for a big portion of 2012.I agree with moderated about his value as well. About 1.5 in the rookie draft, and the 3rd in a startup.

I can't see the Vikings spending a high pick on a RB with so many holes to fill. I see no way they draft Richardson and I'd hardly call drafting him a "smart" move. Peterson will be back at some point. As far as drafting a RB in round 2 or 3 that has "far more ability" than Gerhart - I think people are forgetting the Vikings moved up in the second round to draft Gerhart just two years ago. Gerhart has performed more than adequately replacing Peterson as well. Gerhart was a very good runner at Stanford and while he lacks some quickness, he's pretty well rounded otherwise. I do think they can draft a RB in later rounds or sign a cheap veteran FA to share some of the load with Gerhart (plus they have Harvin to take some carries as well), but I think they'd be ok with using Gerhart for the first six or seven weeks of the season if necessary.As to the OP, I do find this an interesting topic as I will have a start up dynasty draft this offseason. Honestly I'm not sure where I'd feel comfortable taking him at this point - but the injury will land some one a bargain I suspect.As for estblished league I think most owners will hold as they'll only get lowball offers for now. In all 3 of my dynasty leagues the Peterson owner also owns Gerhart so at least they'll feel somewhat covered. In one I did make an offer of Jermichael Finley, Brandon Jacobs and Jacquizz Rodgers for Peterson and Gerhart to try and test the waters out a little. It was quickly rejected and I haven't stepped my offer up yet.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Another thing to consider is the possibility the Vikings draft a RB with a high pick this year or next. If they are convinced Richardson is the next AP wouldn't they be smart to draft him? They could also use a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and get a guy that has far more. Ability than gerhart. That may be a smart move as well, as they may not feel good about hitching their running game on the back of Gerhart for a big portion of 2012.I agree with moderated about his value as well. About 1.5 in the rookie draft, and the 3rd in a startup.

The Vikings are a terrible team with a lot of holes, namely on defense, the offensive line, and WR. There is little to no chance that they waste an early pick on a RB. They will go with Gerhart, mix Harvin in, and sign a stopgap RB to fill in until Peterson returns.

Agreed that the Vikings have a ton of holes to fill on their roster. I doubt that stops them from taking a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round however if he is their BPA.

 

[Concept Coop]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts. Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts.

Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

NFL.com's Michael Lombardi says that Toby Gerhart "looks too slow to ever be a full-time back, or even a good short-yardage back for the Vikings." Read more: http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Toby_Gerhart/1944177/nflcoms-michael-lombardi-says-that-toby-gerhart-quotlooks#ixzz1hwdjUw2G

 

[Concept Coop]

Another thing to consider is the possibility the Vikings draft a RB with a high pick this year or next. If they are convinced Richardson is the next AP wouldn't they be smart to draft him? They could also use a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and get a guy that has far more. Ability than gerhart. That may be a smart move as well, as they may not feel good about hitching their running game on the back of Gerhart for a big portion of 2012.I agree with moderated about his value as well. About 1.5 in the rookie draft, and the 3rd in a startup.

They used a 2nd round pick on him, and he has averaged just under 5YPC (4.9). On top of that, he has been solid out of the backfield. What don't they feel great about? What has Gerhardt done or not done, since being drafted, to make them feel that they made a mistake?If Toby went to an SEC school and looked a bit different, there wouldn't be these concers.

 

[Concept Coop]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts.

Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

NFL.com's Michael Lombardi says that Toby Gerhart "looks too slow to ever be a full-time back, or even a good short-yardage back for the Vikings." Read more: http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Toby_Gerhart/1944177/nflcoms-michael-lombardi-says-that-toby-gerhart-quotlooks#ixzz1hwdjUw2G

I hope he keeps saying that. He is every bit as fast as he was when he was a 2nd round pick (and graded out as one), and fast enough to average 4.9 YPC. And TG is plenty fast to be a goal line back.

EDIT: 4.53/40YD

 

[Dr. Octopus]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts.

Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

NFL.com's Michael Lombardi says that Toby Gerhart "looks too slow to ever be a full-time back, or even a good short-yardage back for the Vikings." Read more: http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Toby_Gerhart/1944177/nflcoms-michael-lombardi-says-that-toby-gerhart-quotlooks#ixzz1hwdjUw2G

4.5 speed at 230 pouns is really not "too slow" at all and he's already proven to be successful in short yardage (at the GL at least). Not sure why Lombardi would say that, but I think Gerhart is no worse than a league average back.

 

[cstu]

I still have Peterson as a top 10 dynasty rb. People are quick to forget how good he is. Even if he only comes back to 75% of his normal production for four more seasons, that is still 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. I'm not sure how he could fall tithe fourth in a dynasty draft.

He's 27 in March and coming off ACL and MCL tears that will limit what he does in 2012. It will be 2013 before he's back to his old self and that gives him roughly 3 stud years left - and that's the best case scenario. RB Two Year Rule.

 

[cstu]

I don't think gerhardt has that much value. He'll start at the beginning of the 2012 season but once AD is back he's worthless unless AD gets hurt again.

Also when he becomes a FA I highly doubt anyone will bring him in as their starting RB.

So he's a handcuff for AD and doesn't have much value to anyone else which limits the market for him.



A desperate AD owner might give up a 2nd round rookie pick for him, but that's the top of his value range.

The 2nd round is where he was drafted. Having proven himself as a legit back I don't think his value is less now that he is likely going to be getting a lot of carries early in the season next year. Admittedly I'm a fan who think he would be much more highly thought of if his skin was a different color.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I will be shopping Peterson at our year end party next week and see what the value is. If I am offered the 1.1 (Richardson), I might listen and jump. It is tough though, AP is a once in a decade player* that you do not want to lose from your team. I think name value, plus the fact he had surgery today could help his value as it was thought it would be weeks before he had surgery.

* By once in a decade I mean uber-talented, nice guy, says/does the right thing kind of guy that is in your starting line-up every week barring injury. No off field issues here, a true Walter Payton type of player.

Edit to add surgery a "success".

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson has had surgery to repair torn ligaments in his left knee.

Peterson

Coach Leslie Frazier said the team was informed that Friday's operation by Dr. James Andrews was "successful" and that Peterson was "resting comfortably." In a statement distributed by the team, Frazier wished Peterson a "speedy recovery."

Peterson tore the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in the knee during last Sunday's game at Washington. He finished his fifth year in the NFL with 970 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing.

The Vikings have said they expect him to be ready in time for the start of the 2012 season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts.

Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

NFL.com's Michael Lombardi says that Toby Gerhart "looks too slow to ever be a full-time back, or even a good short-yardage back for the Vikings." Read more: http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Toby_Gerhart/1944177/nflcoms-michael-lombardi-says-that-toby-gerhart-quotlooks#ixzz1hwdjUw2G

4.5 speed at 230 pouns is really not "too slow" at all and he's already proven to be successful in short yardage (at the GL at least). Not sure why Lombardi would say that, but I think Gerhart is no worse than a league average back.

By "slow", he actually meant "white"

 

[Sabertooth]

So, with the fog of the season cleared, where does Adrian sit now?

 

[EBF]

He's overrated based on past production and name value. He's a 27 year old RB coming off a devastating injury. He also has 1400+ NFL carries of mileage on his body. I think projections of 3-4 more quality seasons are too rosy. It's unlikely that he will be 100% next year. So by the time he's all the way back (if he ever gets there), he'll be 28 years old. That's roughly the age where RBs start to decline even if they aren't coping with a reconstructed knee. He was an obvious sell high even before he got hurt. Now he's a huge avoid.

 

[Sabertooth]

He's overrated based on past production and name value. He's a 27 year old RB coming off a devastating injury. He also has 1400+ NFL carries of mileage on his body. I think projections of 3-4 more quality seasons are too rosy. It's unlikely that he will be 100% next year. So by the time he's all the way back (if he ever gets there), he'll be 28 years old. That's roughly the age where RBs start to decline even if they aren't coping with a reconstructed knee. He was an obvious sell high even before he got hurt. Now he's a huge avoid.

I advised selling him last offseason. Now I think his value might be more realistic. I think his long term value is higher than guys like DeAngelo Williams, BJGE, and Shonn Greene to give a broad spectrum of players.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts.

Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

NFL.com's Michael Lombardi says that Toby Gerhart "looks too slow to ever be a full-time back, or even a good short-yardage back for the Vikings." Read more: http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Toby_Gerhart/1944177/nflcoms-michael-lombardi-says-that-toby-gerhart-quotlooks#ixzz1hwdjUw2G

4.5 speed at 230 pouns is really not "too slow" at all and he's already proven to be successful in short yardage (at the GL at least). Not sure why Lombardi would say that, but I think Gerhart is no worse than a league average back.

He had a faster 40 time at the combine than Mark Ingram

 

[Sabertooth]

His value is taking a nosedive. If only there had been a thread about this prior to the season.

This shtick needs to die - the thread with it. You didn't predict a freak injury, and would have been wrong to do so, anyway. You were wrong.On to Peterson - he has a 24 year old, 2nd round draft pick as a handcuff, who has been putting up points and who can catch the ball. AP's true value is not taking the hit that his ADP(draft spot) will in startups. Of course, drafting Peterson will REQUIRE that you get Tobi, overpaying if needed. But he is a very good insurance policy. Imagine what Gerhardt's draft value would have been had he gone to a team that used him as the Vikings will if AP is out: Top 5-7 pick in rookie drafts.

Peterson/Gerhardt is a buy low right now, and Tobi is the "sneaky" acquisition, and key to AP's value. He is either going to be the handcuff to your stud RB, or his is going to be a starting, young, talented RB who can catch the ball, block and serve as the goal line back (All 3 downs).

NFL.com's Michael Lombardi says that Toby Gerhart "looks too slow to ever be a full-time back, or even a good short-yardage back for the Vikings." Read more: http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Toby_Gerhart/1944177/nflcoms-michael-lombardi-says-that-toby-gerhart-quotlooks#ixzz1hwdjUw2G

4.5 speed at 230 pouns is really not "too slow" at all and he's already proven to be successful in short yardage (at the GL at least). Not sure why Lombardi would say that, but I think Gerhart is no worse than a league average back.

He had a faster 40 time at the combine than Mark Ingram

AD could run a faster 40 than Ingram today with a blown knee.

 

[Shutout]

He's overrated based on past production and name value. He's a 27 year old RB coming off a devastating injury. He also has 1400+ NFL carries of mileage on his body. I think projections of 3-4 more quality seasons are too rosy. It's unlikely that he will be 100% next year. So by the time he's all the way back (if he ever gets there), he'll be 28 years old. That's roughly the age where RBs start to decline even if they aren't coping with a reconstructed knee. He was an obvious sell high even before he got hurt. Now he's a huge avoid.

Its the circle of life. Last year at this time, there were A LOT of owners (a few in some of my leagues) that would have asked a king's randsom + a first born child for Peterson. Now its all gloom and doom.Which makes me think the truth is somewhere squarely in the middle. I agree I would be more inclined to sell than to buy him and I do agree that it will probably be 2013 before we see him in his best form again. But that is where I split off from the herd.I think he is the kind of RB that could easily have a FJAX-like year two or three years from now and could be a RB2 on someone's team when he is 31, maybe 32. So, in RB terms, he is a guy I think is valuable for about 5 more seasons played and that's about as good as anyone can hope for when it comes to RBS...so I wouldn't fault anyone for holding or buying because, let's face it, even if I was drafting a 22 year old highly-touted rookie like Richardson, DMAC, Ingram, etc, there is really no guarantee of what I'm getting for more than a 5 year window.

 

[thriftyrocker]

He's overrated based on past production and name value. He's a 27 year old RB coming off a devastating injury. He also has 1400+ NFL carries of mileage on his body. I think projections of 3-4 more quality seasons are too rosy. It's unlikely that he will be 100% next year. So by the time he's all the way back (if he ever gets there), he'll be 28 years old. That's roughly the age where RBs start to decline even if they aren't coping with a reconstructed knee. He was an obvious sell high even before he got hurt. Now he's a huge avoid.

I advised selling him last offseason. Now I think his value might be more realistic. I think his long term value is higher than guys like DeAngelo Williams, BJGE, and Shonn Greene to give a broad spectrum of players.

No one is going to take DeAngelo Williams for him. The potential is for 2 elite years (age 28 and 29) and 2 to 5 good years (age 27, 30, and later). LT, even with his precipitous decline in ability, still had RB2/flex value at 30 and 31. Is the risk really that much higher than guys like Murray, DMC, Charles, Lynch, Stewart, Spiller, pick your favorite that go in the 3rd or 4th of startup drafts? Almost every RB has issues, it's just about picking your poison. He's still a top 50 player. Top 30 is close. He did go top 30 in the #DLFMock.

 

[Concept Coop]

People are missing the boat on Toby. Big time.

Physically, he is on par with Mark Ingram, who still has a loyal following on the boards. He has a very good mix of speed/power and his combine numbers back this up.

Toby makes plays out of the backfield. 17% of his touches were receptions. For reference: Foster - 16%; Rice = 19%. His 3 receiving TDs were tied for 2nd among the productive 3 down backs. For reference: McCoy - 3; Foster - 2.

Toby produces yards on the ground. In his 5 games in which he received doubt digit carries, Toby averaged:

16.6 carries for 79.2 yards (4.77/Per); 2.8 receptions for 16 yards; 0.8 TDs. Or 16.5 fantasy points/game.

I said it before, but will repeat: Toby Gerhart is the key to Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. The ability to handcuff with a future starting RB is big. Especially when that RB's (Toby) value is so low. Trading a safer RB for AP/Toby is logical, in my opinion, as Toby mitigates a lot of that risk. MJD for AP/TG, for instance. Seeing as how Richadson is going in the first round of startups: Richardson for AP/TG/1st rounder.

The onwer that gets AP in the third and Toby in the 10th is doing better than the owner that got TR in the 1st or MJD in the early 2nd.

 

[Shutout]

People are missing the boat on Toby. Big time.

Physically, he is on par with Mark Ingram, who still has a loyal following on the boards. He has a very good mix of speed/power and his combine numbers back this up.

Toby makes plays out of the backfield. 17% of his touches were receptions. For reference: Foster - 16%; Rice = 19%. His 3 receiving TDs were tied for 2nd among the productive 3 down backs. For reference: McCoy - 3; Foster - 2.

Toby produces yards on the ground. In his 5 games in which he received doubt digit carries, Toby averaged:

16.6 carries for 79.2 yards (4.77/Per); 2.8 receptions for 16 yards; 0.8 TDs. Or 16.5 fantasy points/game.

I said it before, but will repeat: Toby Gerhart is the key to Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. The ability to handcuff with a future starting RB is big. Especially when that RB's (Toby) value is so low. Trading a safer RB for AP/Toby is logical, in my opinion, as Toby mitigates a lot of that risk. MJD for AP/TG, for instance. Seeing as how Richadson is going in the first round of startups: Richardson for AP/TG/1st rounder.

The onwer that gets AP in the third and Toby in the 10th is doing better than the owner that got TR in the 1st or MJD in the early 2nd.

Lots of guy's combine numbers suggest they are better than they really are.Is that stat before or after the Vikings seemed to get a clue on how to use Harvin?

With both things being said, I don't know if I will ever be sold on Toby but I agree generally with the point. Back in the day, had you picked up Michael turner or darren Sproles because you were a LT owner, you would have benefitted in the future. Same thing with Benson/Thomas Jones. Those things are far and few between but valid. You just have to know which ones to take/not take.

I don't think Toby is as good as you are drawing the line, as an every week starter, playing every game. But I don't think he is as bad as some people are disregarding him either.

 

[Concept Coop]

People are missing the boat on Toby. Big time.

Physically, he is on par with Mark Ingram, who still has a loyal following on the boards. He has a very good mix of speed/power and his combine numbers back this up.

Toby makes plays out of the backfield. 17% of his touches were receptions. For reference: Foster - 16%; Rice = 19%. His 3 receiving TDs were tied for 2nd among the productive 3 down backs. For reference: McCoy - 3; Foster - 2.

Toby produces yards on the ground. In his 5 games in which he received doubt digit carries, Toby averaged:

16.6 carries for 79.2 yards (4.77/Per); 2.8 receptions for 16 yards; 0.8 TDs. Or 16.5 fantasy points/game.

I said it before, but will repeat: Toby Gerhart is the key to Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. The ability to handcuff with a future starting RB is big. Especially when that RB's (Toby) value is so low. Trading a safer RB for AP/Toby is logical, in my opinion, as Toby mitigates a lot of that risk. MJD for AP/TG, for instance. Seeing as how Richadson is going in the first round of startups: Richardson for AP/TG/1st rounder.

The onwer that gets AP in the third and Toby in the 10th is doing better than the owner that got TR in the 1st or MJD in the early 2nd.

Lots of guy's combine numbers suggest they are better than they really are.Is that stat before or after the Vikings seemed to get a clue on how to use Harvin?

With both things being said, I don't know if I will ever be sold on Toby but I agree generally with the point. Back in the day, had you picked up Michael turner or darren Sproles because you were a LT owner, you would have benefitted in the future. Same thing with Benson/Thomas Jones. Those things are far and few between but valid. You just have to know which ones to take/not take.

I don't think Toby is as good as you are drawing the line, as an every week starter, playing every game. But I don't think he is as bad as some people are disregarding him either.

Why are Toby's combine number lying, but others are accurate? That is what I don't get.Toby has produced with the likes of Ben Tate, was drafted before Tate in the same draft, didn's suffer a major injury or have the benefit of playing in Houston...yet, Tate would be a top 15 back if Foster wasn't around, and Toby is a handcuff.

It doesn't add up to me.

 

[thatguy]

People are missing the boat on Toby. Big time.

Physically, he is on par with Mark Ingram, who still has a loyal following on the boards. He has a very good mix of speed/power and his combine numbers back this up.

Toby makes plays out of the backfield. 17% of his touches were receptions. For reference: Foster - 16%; Rice = 19%. His 3 receiving TDs were tied for 2nd among the productive 3 down backs. For reference: McCoy - 3; Foster - 2.

Toby produces yards on the ground. In his 5 games in which he received doubt digit carries, Toby averaged:

16.6 carries for 79.2 yards (4.77/Per); 2.8 receptions for 16 yards; 0.8 TDs. Or 16.5 fantasy points/game.

I said it before, but will repeat: Toby Gerhart is the key to Adrian Peterson's dynasty value. The ability to handcuff with a future starting RB is big. Especially when that RB's (Toby) value is so low. Trading a safer RB for AP/Toby is logical, in my opinion, as Toby mitigates a lot of that risk. MJD for AP/TG, for instance. Seeing as how Richadson is going in the first round of startups: Richardson for AP/TG/1st rounder.

The onwer that gets AP in the third and Toby in the 10th is doing better than the owner that got TR in the 1st or MJD in the early 2nd.

Lots of guy's combine numbers suggest they are better than they really are.Is that stat before or after the Vikings seemed to get a clue on how to use Harvin?

With both things being said, I don't know if I will ever be sold on Toby but I agree generally with the point. Back in the day, had you picked up Michael turner or darren Sproles because you were a LT owner, you would have benefitted in the future. Same thing with Benson/Thomas Jones. Those things are far and few between but valid. You just have to know which ones to take/not take.

I don't think Toby is as good as you are drawing the line, as an every week starter, playing every game. But I don't think he is as bad as some people are disregarding him either.

Why are Toby's combine number lying, but others are accurate? That is what I don't get.Toby has produced with the likes of Ben Tate, was drafted before Tate in the same draft, didn's suffer a major injury or have the benefit of playing in Houston...yet, Tate would be a top 15 back if Foster wasn't around, and Toby is a handcuff.

It doesn't add up to me.

Agreed. Toby is a low end RB1, and at the very worst, high end RB2, as the starter in Minny. And he get bumped even higher in PPR leagues.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/28/adrian-peterson-on-target-for-week-one-return/

 

[Shanahanigans]

I think it's a good time to buy assuming the owner has soured on him. Why not take the risk, his value has never been lower, and that's the best time to buy players.

 

[mjr]

I bought on ADP this year because Im in win now mode and can survive his limited use the first few weeks of the season. Owner was too worried about his injury, which he should considering AP was his only ace in the hole.

If he can finish strong this year and play well next year, ill be happy. Other than that, I don't think AP is a buy for a building team at all.

 

[Sabertooth]

I bought on ADP this year because Im in win now mode and can survive his limited use the first few weeks of the season. Owner was too worried about his injury, which he should considering AP was his only ace in the hole. If he can finish strong this year and play well next year, ill be happy. Other than that, I don't think AP is a buy for a building team at all.

His value peaked in preseason last year. There was a thread around here somewhere.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Traded him after the injury for what is now the 1.12, 2.12, and a 2013 1st.... I was offered various deals involving a late 1st and/or multiple 2nd/3rd round picks in this year's draft, but I was adamant about receiving a 1st in 2013. It will be probably be a late pick in 13 but so be it. I pretty much agree with EBF's assessment and figured this was about as a good of a deal as I could find.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Try for a mark Ingram or another under performing rookie. Charles would be another good catch if u can spare the risk.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Peterson is a buy if you can get him at around 3rd round redraft value or lower. When the season draws near he will likely be a 2nd to late 1st round pick if he doesn't have set backs in rehabilitation.

While the 2 year rule is something to be very mindful of concerning Petersons performance in 2012. I also think you need to consider Petersons desire to be great. His passion for the game and the way he gives his all every play. He has always been a injury risk because of this, but it is also the reason I would not bet against his desire to come back great.

I am actually more concerned about Peterson pushing himself too hard in rehab risking re-injury. Frasier has indicated the same concern. But if Peterson makes it through camp and preseason without major set back. Shows he still has the same explosiveness as before his value will only go up as the season gets closer.

Gerhardt is a very capable RB. Where you can get him will largely depend on the league your in and how Petersons rehab progresses. I think he would have a very good season if Peterson were not able to play. I am guessing people would start looking at him as early as the 5th round, but more likely he will get sniped in round 7-8.

Having both on your roster should be a good investment especially if the Vikings do get Kahil or other players to strengthen the offensive line. Gerhardt will never be as good as Peterson but he is very capable of being a quality starter for the Vikings or another team if he moves on after contract is expired.

ETA- There is no way I see the Vikings drafting a RB before round 4 given megabucks given to Peterson last season and how well Gerhardt has performed spelling him. Also some nice work from Harvin in that role. The cupboard is far from empty here. I also think the small name free agent signings suggest they feel pretty comfortable at the position going into the draft as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

by Tom PelisseroAdrian Peterson is scheduled to begin running this week. For real this time.Last month, Peterson said in multiple interviews he was ready to run less than two months after undergoing knee reconstruction, prompting Minnesota Vikings coach Leslie Frazier to call his star halfback and tell him not to rush his rehabilitation.That rehabilitation has remained on target, Frazier said on Wednesday at the NFL meetings, and Peterson is back in Minnesota with the Vikings' training staff this week as he prepares to take the next step -- moving from jogging in a pool to dryland."He's supposed to start running this week," Frazier said. "We'll get a better gauge of where he is once he starts running. But everything he's done up to this point has been very good."Peterson, 27, tore the anterior cruciate ligament and medial collateral ligament in his left knee on Dec. 24 at Washington. He underwent surgery six days later with Dr. James Andrews, who selected the therapists Peterson has been working with much of the offseason at his home in Houston.Eric Sugarman, the Vikings' head athletic trainer, has been in daily contact with Peterson and visited him in Houston as well. Running this week would match the timeline Sugarman laid out for reporters in January, saying it would take about three months for the patella tendon from which Peterson's new ACL was grafted to be strong enough."This is the beginning stages of running," Frazier said. "So, we'll have a better gauge in another, let's say, one or two weeks as to what kind of progress he's going to make. But we've got to determine if he's going to have any swelling after the first time he runs, when he begins cutting and turning and twisting."The Vikings continue to hope for Peterson to play in Week 1, but Frazier acknowledged last month Peterson may be highly limited early on. Frazier said on Wednesday the Vikings are moving forward with contingency plans to add a third back who could play a significant role behind Toby Gerhart whether Peterson makes it back or not."It's too early right now to say that he's going to absolutely make it back by the first game," Frazier said. "But so far, he's on target with everything we've asked him to do."

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Vikings_Adrian_Peterson_to_begin_running_this_week_Hes_on_target032812I am expecting RBBC for the begining of the season between Peterson and Gerhart regardless of how well Petersons rehab has gone.

 

[The Comedian]

I bought on ADP this year because Im in win now mode and can survive his limited use the first few weeks of the season. Owner was too worried about his injury, which he should considering AP was his only ace in the hole. If he can finish strong this year and play well next year, ill be happy. Other than that, I don't think AP is a buy for a building team at all.

His value peaked in preseason last year. There was a thread around here somewhere.

So who is blowing out their knee this year, Nostradamus?

 

[The Comedian]

I will be shopping Peterson at our year end party next week and see what the value is. If I am offered the 1.1 (Richardson), I might listen and jump.

I think his long term value is higher than guys like DeAngelo Williams, BJGE, and Shonn Greene to give a broad spectrum of players.

Two 's for each end of the absurd spectrum here.

 

[Sabertooth]

I bought on ADP this year because Im in win now mode and can survive his limited use the first few weeks of the season. Owner was too worried about his injury, which he should considering AP was his only ace in the hole. If he can finish strong this year and play well next year, ill be happy. Other than that, I don't think AP is a buy for a building team at all.

His value peaked in preseason last year. There was a thread around here somewhere.

So who is blowing out their knee this year, Nostradamus?

I don't know. But Adrian's value would still be in the 4-5 range even if he'd stayed healthy last season. Last season it was in the 1-2 range. Next season it will be even lower regardless of what he does.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I bought on ADP this year because Im in win now mode and can survive his limited use the first few weeks of the season. Owner was too worried about his injury, which he should considering AP was his only ace in the hole. If he can finish strong this year and play well next year, ill be happy. Other than that, I don't think AP is a buy for a building team at all.

His value peaked in preseason last year. There was a thread around here somewhere.

So who is blowing out their knee this year, Nostradamus?

I don't know. But Adrian's value would still be in the 4-5 range even if he'd stayed healthy last season. Last season it was in the 1-2 range. Next season it will be even lower regardless of what he does.

I would say that if he had not blown his knee out it wouldRiceFosterMcCoythen ADP or Matthews

 

[Abraham]

I still have him top 5.

Foster

Rice

McCoy

Murray

Peterson

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Peterson's value was interchangeable with Rice/McCoy/Foster before he blew his knee out. A lot of people still had him #1. He's the only one of the group that's proven he's immune to a poor team situation. You even went into your thread and admitted to being wrong like a week before he got hurt, and then when he got injured you jumped back in with "LOL SEE I TOLD U SO WHO'S THE MAN?!!?!".

 

[KellysHeroes]

Peterson's value was interchangeable with Rice/McCoy/Foster before he blew his knee out. A lot of people still had him #1. He's the only one of the group that's proven he's immune to a poor team situation. You even went into your thread and admitted to being wrong like a week before he got hurt, and then when he got injured you jumped back in with "LOL SEE I TOLD U SO WHO'S THE MAN?!!?!".

Peterson would of started this season about 2 yrs older than what's currently rated top 5, his value was going to start decreasing this yr no matter what.

 

[Sabertooth]

Peterson's value was interchangeable with Rice/McCoy/Foster before he blew his knee out. A lot of people still had him #1. He's the only one of the group that's proven he's immune to a poor team situation. You even went into your thread and admitted to being wrong like a week before he got hurt, and then when he got injured you jumped back in with "LOL SEE I TOLD U SO WHO'S THE MAN?!!?!".

no