AFC playoff seeding scenarios (1 Viewer)

[The_Man]

I'm trying to figure out AFC playoff seeding -- I think this is right.

If the Ravens, Texans, and Patriots all finish tied at 13-3, then they'll all be 10-2 in the AFC. Head-to-head won't apply, since they haven't all played each other. And Common Games won't apply, because they don't have four Common Games. That means the tie-breaker would be Strength of Victory. Baltimore has a big edge here:

Baltimore = 62 (2 win over Pitt and one over SF alone are worth 28 and counting, plus every HOU win adds to the Ravens' tally)

New England = 45

Houston = 41 (two wins over Jax and Indy only count for 6)

At 13-3, Baltimore wins a two-way tie over Houston on head-to-head, and over New England on Common Games (5-0 vs. 4-1 against PITT, NYJ, SD, Indy).

If Baltimore loses, and Pittsburgh gets into a three-way tie at 13-3, they would be eliminated from the tie with a 7-3 conference record. In that scenario, Houston and New England would have the same AFC record, be 4-1 vs. Common Opponents (MIA, OAK, Indy, Pitt) and the tie-breaker for the #1 seed would still be Strength of Victory. This same tie-breaker also applies to determining who would be the #2 seed if Baltimore were to get the #1 as outlined above. If Pittsburgh gets into a two-way tie with NE, they are #1, but if they are in a two-way tie with Houston, they are #2 (based on head-to-head in both situations).

In the West, with Denver and Oakland tied at 7-5, the Broncos hold a couple of advantages. One, the Broncos have already clinched the Common Games tie-breaker (if these teams finish tied): Oakland went 2-0 vs. non-common opponents, while the Broncos went 1-1. That means if they finish with the same number of wins, the Broncos will have one more win vs. Common Opponents. The tie-breaker before that is division record. Denver is 3-2 in the division while Oakland is 2-2. If you figure both these teams will probably lose at least one more game, the Raiders can't afford for that loss to be in the division. Because Denver has already clinched the Common Games tie-breaker, the Raiders lose if they finish with the same AFC West record as the Broncos.

Wild Card is way too crazy to figure out right now. Same is true with the top seeds if they finish at 12-4 instead of 13-3. Could be pretty amazing for the Steelers to finish 13-3 and end up as a #5 seed, playing at 9-7 Oakland or Denver. Also, the Ravens could go into Week 17 at Cincy needing a win to be #1, or falling all the way to #5 with a loss. I just don't see the Ravens ending the season on a 7-game winning streak, so my playoff prediction is:

1: Pittsburgh (13-3)

2: New England (13-3)

3: Houston (11-5)

4: Denver (9-7)

5: Baltimore (12-4)

6: Can't make an educated guess yet.

 

[David Yudkin]

NE and BAL each have one game against an above average opponent. PIT has the toughest game remaining of all 4 teams. HOU plays two teams with a winning record and are forced to go with a rookie QB.

Patriots: @ WAS (4-8), @ DEN (7-5), MIA (4-8), BUF (5-7)

I don't see the Pats losing any of these, although historically they haven't played well in Denver. While Tebow has been on a nice run, it's the Broncos defense that has been stepping up. They haven't faced an offense like the Pats and I am not sure Tebow's QBing skills will give him the 350/3 passing lines that the Pats have been giving up.

Ravens: IND (0-12), @ SD (4-7), CLE (4-8), @ CIN (7-5)

Baltimore on the road is usually hard to predict, so the Chargers are probably the toughest game left. The Bengals have only beaten one team with a winning record (Titans), and that might be the other iffy game for BAL. I still think the Ravens win out (but you never know what you get with them at times.)

Texans: @ CIN (7-5), CAR (4-8), @ IND (0-12), TEN (7-5)

Given the Yates factor, HOU could lose any of these games but I think HOU would be considered a favorite in all of them given their defense and running game.

IMO, the PIT/SF game will be a battle of teams that will lose a solid chance at a bye if they don't win. If the Steelers lose to the Niners, I would guess they fall to the #5 seed no matter what.

Seems like there is a decent chance of TWO 13-3 AFC teams having to play in the wildcard round this year (which I'm guessing is a rarity). Add in a third (SF or NO) and that would be pretty unusual.

 

[David Yudkin]

People can tinker with combinations of outcomes with the Yahoo Playoff Generator, which is always a good time.

 

[The_Man]

Texans: @ CIN (7-5), CAR (4-8), @ IND (0-12), TEN (7-5)Given the Yates factor, HOU could lose any of these games but I think HOU would be considered a favorite in all of them given their defense and running game.Seems like there is a decent chance of TWO 13-3 AFC teams having to play in the wildcard round this year (which I'm guessing is a rarity). Add in a third (SF or NO) and that would be pretty unusual.

I just don't see Houston winning five straight games with Yates at QB. While I can't necessarily point to any one game in which they'll lose, I'll take the bet that it won't happen. In fact, if Andre Johnson is out, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy beat them this week. As bad as Atlanta played for much of yesterday, a defensive holding called that negated a pick-6 pretty much won the game for Houston. Without that call, Yates is down by a TD in the fourth quarter and I don't think pulls out the game.

People can tinker with combinations of outcomes with the Yahoo Playoff Generator, which is always a good time.

I was doing that earlier, and actually came up with a not-crazy scenario where Seattle makes the playoffs at 9-7. They've got STL at home on MNF, then @ Chicago, home vs. SF, and then @ AZ. Beating SF is kind of a stretch, but the rest are plausible with the way Lynch is playing. I just can't figure out how they lost to Washington at home last week. Without that, they're 6-6, riding a 4-game win streak.

 

[The_Man]

I'm trying to figure out AFC playoff seeding -- I think this is right.If the Ravens, Texans, and Patriots all finish tied at 13-3, then they'll all be 10-2 in the AFC. Head-to-head won't apply, since they haven't all played each other. And Common Games won't apply, because they don't have four Common Games. That means the tie-breaker would be Strength of Victory. Baltimore has a big edge here:Baltimore = 62 (2 win over Pitt and one over SF alone are worth 28 and counting, plus every HOU win adds to the Ravens' tally)New England = 45Houston = 41 (two wins over Jax and Indy only count for 6)At 13-3, Baltimore wins a two-way tie over Houston on head-to-head, and over New England on Common Games (5-0 vs. 4-1 against PITT, NYJ, SD, Indy).If Baltimore loses, and Pittsburgh gets into a three-way tie at 13-3, they would be eliminated from the tie with a 7-3 conference record. In that scenario, Houston and New England would have the same AFC record, be 4-1 vs. Common Opponents (MIA, OAK, Indy, Pitt) and the tie-breaker for the #1 seed would still be Strength of Victory. This same tie-breaker also applies to determining who would be the #2 seed if Baltimore were to get the #1 as outlined above. If Pittsburgh gets into a two-way tie with NE, they are #1, but if they are in a two-way tie with Houston, they are #2 (based on head-to-head in both situations).

At the top of the AFC, absolutely nothing has changed with all 4 9-3 teams improving to 10-3. Even though Houston is currently the #1 seed, that's only because their AFC record is 8-2, vs. 7-2 for Baltimore and New England. The Texans play Carolina this week, so the Pats and Ravens could catch them at 8-2 in the AFC with wins this week. If all 3 teams win out, Baltimore becomes the # 1 seed, based on Strength of Victory. Current SOV standings:Baltimore - 67Houston - 52New England - 51But I think Baltimore has the toughest remaining schedule of any 10-3 team, with games at San Diego and at Cincy. I still think the Ravens lose one of those, so they need Pittsburgh to lose at SF, or they would look to drop from #1 all the way to #5. Jets took a huge step toward the #6 seed, getting a game clear of Cincy, Oakland, and the Titans, and are playing very well right now.

 

[David Yudkin]

Using the above link for a playoff generator, if the 49ers beat the Steelers and the Texans and Pats win out, NE is listed as the 2 seed. (At least that's what is shows for me given the other results included).

 

[The_Man]

Using the above link for a playoff generator, if the 49ers beat the Steelers and the Texans and Pats win out, NE is listed as the 2 seed. (At least that's what is shows for me given the other results included).

If the Texans and Pats win out, they'll be 10-2 in the AFC, be 4-1 vs. Common Opponents (MIA, OAK, Indy, Pitt) and the tie-breaker for the #2 seed would be Strength of Victory.Your result is based on how your other predictions affect Strength of Victory. With just one game separating Houston and New England in that category, it's absolutely impossible to predict how that plays out.