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aside, I think this is a common mistake in dynasty. Lloyd has outscored Harvin all but one week this season and has scored about 60% more points. And like I stated above, I don't really look much past two or three years down the road. And why would you? There is so much uncertainty in the NFL from season to season, I think that is a losing bet for all but the super elite players.What makes you think he's going to keep this up for 2-3 more years? There are a ton of options in Denver and who knows what happens once Thomas is completely healthy and more familiar with the NFL game.I wouldn't trust Lloyd past this year, personally.aside, I think this is a common mistake in dynasty. Lloyd has outscored Harvin all but one week this season and has scored about 60% more points. And like I stated above, I don't really look much past two or three years down the road. And why would you? There is so much uncertainty in the NFL from season to season, I think that is a losing bet for all but the super elite players.
His situation for one. He and Orton will be there for at least this year and next. The emergence of Thomas may or may not ever happen. Many thought he was a reach where he was picked. Many many many first round physical specimens just flop. Lots of questions, and maybe it was a bit short sighted, but then again maybe not. I'm not foolish enough to think I know what will happen. He's not even 30 years old yet. Heck Demaryus could emerge and become such a threat that teams are forced to roll coverage away from Lloyd. We just don't know.What makes you think he's going to keep this up for 2-3 more years? There are a ton of options in Denver and who knows what happens once Thomas is completely healthy and more familiar with the NFL game.I wouldn't trust Lloyd past this year, personally.aside, I think this is a common mistake in dynasty. Lloyd has outscored Harvin all but one week this season and has scored about 60% more points. And like I stated above, I don't really look much past two or three years down the road. And why would you? There is so much uncertainty in the NFL from season to season, I think that is a losing bet for all but the super elite players.
You just listed a bunch of guys who have proved themselves year after year. I'm more interested to know how many WR's got their first 1000 season at 29 (or even 27 or 28) and repeated it the next year.
Look no further than two former Broncos (Rod Smith broke out at 27, Easy Ed McCaffrey at 31). I just found this article which is a pretty interesting read on Lloyd's past. He seems a bit misunderstood. Is the 29-year-old Lloyd a genuine late bloomer? He would need to continue posting consistent fantasy numbers over a full season (I wouldn’t expect 100-plus receiving yards each week) for me to answer yes. It’s not unusual for receivers to amass elite numbers late in their careers. Denver fans may recall another late bloomer by the name of Ed McCaffrey. He enjoyed his first 70-plus catch season at 31 years old and amassed his first 100-plus catch season at age 32. Troy Brown, formerly of the New England Patriots, compiled 83, 101 and 97 catches, respectively, at ages 29, 30 and 31.
Delusion of grandeur.
He's 29. The same age as Roddy White.Edit: according to this page. I noticed Waldman's article also says he is 30, so I don't know which is true.
He's 29, my error.
Thanks for the link Mark. I obviously agree and have been a bit baffled by how many people still consider what he is doing to be fluky. The notion that he is going to fade into obscurity when the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker emerge is completely off base. Why would Denver stop feeding him the ball simply because they have two promising rookie WR's? The bottom line is that right now, Lloyd is far and away Denver's best WR, and that is not likely to change anytime soon. The only other Denver WR on his level from a talent standpoint is Thomas, but he still appears to be a year or two away from putting it all together. And even when he does, there is no reason to believe Lloyd will simply disappear. If Thomas does emerge, it should only help Lloyd. Thomas is a physical freak, and if he is able to become a good WR as well, he will be almost impossible to cover one-on-one. Teams will be forced to pick their poison between Lloyd and Thomas, and this will open things up for both of them, as well as opening things up for Royal, Decker, and Gaffney underneath.Matt Waldman said:
fixed
In another dynasty league pprI 1st traded Lloyd and a 3rd for Reggie Bush and traded a 2nd and David Nelson for Lloyd
I was never in the "flash in the pan" group, but this is why I am somewhat down on dynasty leagues these days. It's so situationally based especially for WR's, unless the situation is stable, it's still a crapshoot. Roddy White for instance is in a stable situation... young QB, and the coaching staff is unlikely to change. If things change in Denver, Lloyd might not keep this pace up. Look at B Marshall and Fitz. Change their situation, and they drop from elite status. TO disappears in Buffalo for a year and blows up in Cinci. The real question in my mind regarding Lloyd is just how stable are things in Denver? I think his situation will likely be stable into next year, but you have both Tebow and the potential threat of a coaching change down the road. By 2012, Lloyd could be nothing more than a WR3 again.
Does that mean he lacked talent or otherwise didn't apply himself in previous years? Or was just in a bad situation? His highlight reel has a couple of very impressive catches. As long as his situation stays favorable in Denver it would surprise me more if he all the sudden started sucking.
My only concern would be that something obviously clicked this year and its not clear if its with Lloyd himself or if he works well with this QB and/or Head Coach. If its the latter, then I would worry how stable the coaching situation is considering Denver is 5-14 since last year's 6-0 start, especially when you consider all the headaches the coach has caused, at least early in his tenure. If Denver is a 5 win team this year, and doesnt really improve next year you could be looking at an entirely different offensive game plan...
I'll pass and let other go crazy over a very average talent in a great situation. I see an Eddie Royal type crash.
I see that side as well. Certainly with the coaching change, anything is possible. An early 2nd is not much more than a 50/50 bet at becoming relevant. That isn't much different than Lloyd's odds for next year.But, what about these last 3 games this year? Do you think the change affects his potential the rest of the year?ETA - I can't believe there is so little discussion on Orton (top 5 this year) and Lloyd (top 3) since the firing. Just the potential effect this year on the playoffs is huge.
The splits show this to be the case. However, I don't see how that will change in the next few weeks. The Broncos defense stinks.Da Guru said:
I agree on most of this myself! Not so much the Miles Austin part, but Lloyd is def here to stay! And I would give a 1.8 or worse for him myself!
Wow, you guys must really value those draft picks. What the heck kind of player do you get with the 1.8? Nothing near Lloyd's production for the foreseeable future, that's for sure.
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