Warrior
Footballguy
I was taking a look at the QB stats of RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson last night and wanted to do a more thorough breakdown to determine who should win the Rookie of the Year award. While I'm doing the legwork, I figured I would post the results here for discussion.
I'm taking the most important factors (in my opinion) and rating each QB from 1-3 in each category (3 = best, 1 = worst). The categories are in no particular order. I'll throw in a couple subjective categories that I feel are very important as well.
---Total yards from scrimmage---
RGIII: 4015 (15 games) (2)
Luck: 4629 (3)
Wilson: 3607 (1)
Andrew Luck edges out RGIII in this category, though it comes on a few hundred more passing attempts. Wilson is clearly lagging behind here.
---Total Touchdowns---
RGIII: 27 (15 games) (2)
Luck: 28 (2)
Wilson: 30 (2)
I don't see much of an edge for any of the three in total TD's, it's a virtual dead-heat.
---Turnovers---
RGIII: 7 (15 games) (3)
Luck: 23 (1)
Wilson: 13 (2)
Wilson did a much better job of protecting the football than Luck, and he still had twice as many turnovers as Griffin. Luck was far too careless with the football and he takes a HUGE hit in the RoY race because of it.
---QB Rating---
RGIII: 102.4 (2.5)
Luck: 76.5 (1)
Wilson: 100.0 (2.5)
Griffin and Wilson are head and shoulders above Andrew Luck in QB Rating, which takes many factors into account. Turnovers are very costly to a team and Luck simply had too many.
---Completion %---
RGIII: 65.6 (2.5)
Luck: 54.1 (1)
Wilson: 64.1 (2.5)
Once again, Wilson and RGIII are neck and neck, while Luck falls farther behind because of accuracy issues.
---Yards per attempt---
RGIII: 8.1 (3)
Luck: 7.0 (1)
Wilson: 7.9 (2)
While luck puts up plenty of yards on volume, Griffin and Wilson consistently make the most of their passing plays, producing a full yard of additional offense every time they throw the ball. Griffin ranks 2nd in the league, while Wilson ranks 6th.
***Win/Loss record***
RGIII: 10-6 (2)
Luck: 11-5 (2)
Wilson: 11-5 (2)
Football is a team sport and the offense only gets the ball for half of the game. But QB play has clearly been a big factor in turning these three teams around from last season. I think this category is too close to call. All three teams have made the playoffs and while Washington has one less win than Indy or Seattle, they are riding an incredible 7-game winning streak.
***Team's dependence on QB for wins***
RGIII: (2)
Luck: (3)
Wilson: (1)
Wilson has the luxury of having perhaps the league's best defense on his side. They produce turnovers, give Wilson more time on the field, and keep the team in a position to win. Marshawn Lynch has been extremely productive this season as well, opening up more passing lanes and teams stack the box. Griffin has also benefitted from a strong running game, though the Redskins defense has been awful due to a string of injuries. Andrew Luck doesn't have much of a running game or a solid defense to rely on, which is why he is forced to throw the ball so much more than the other two rookies.
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Total points:
RGIII: (19)
Wilson: (15)
Luck: (14)
While Andrew Luck has carried the Colts on his back, he's been far too careless with the ball and his most impressive stats are padded by a huge volume of passing attempts. He's the Brett Favre of this year's RoY race. Russell Wilson has been very impressive this season as well, showing more than anyone expected and leading a very good Seahawks team to the postseason, but he still trails in nearly every single relevant passing category.
In my opinion, based on the analysis above, neither player stands a chance against Robert Griffin III in this race. RGIII has been the most efficient, explosive, and accurate rookie passer this season. His numbers aren't padded by 300 additional passing attempts or by having a dominant defense handing him the ball in good field position. He makes a shoddy offensive line look much better by using his scrambling ability and his presence on the field has opened up huge holes for
the running game. His intangibles have been equally as impressive, as he has become the clear leader of the team and driving force behind 7 straight wins, all of which were needed to make the playoffs.
Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have been spectacular this season, but this is clearly Robert Griffin III's award.
I'm taking the most important factors (in my opinion) and rating each QB from 1-3 in each category (3 = best, 1 = worst). The categories are in no particular order. I'll throw in a couple subjective categories that I feel are very important as well.
---Total yards from scrimmage---
RGIII: 4015 (15 games) (2)
Luck: 4629 (3)
Wilson: 3607 (1)
Andrew Luck edges out RGIII in this category, though it comes on a few hundred more passing attempts. Wilson is clearly lagging behind here.
---Total Touchdowns---
RGIII: 27 (15 games) (2)
Luck: 28 (2)
Wilson: 30 (2)
I don't see much of an edge for any of the three in total TD's, it's a virtual dead-heat.
---Turnovers---
RGIII: 7 (15 games) (3)
Luck: 23 (1)
Wilson: 13 (2)
Wilson did a much better job of protecting the football than Luck, and he still had twice as many turnovers as Griffin. Luck was far too careless with the football and he takes a HUGE hit in the RoY race because of it.
---QB Rating---
RGIII: 102.4 (2.5)
Luck: 76.5 (1)
Wilson: 100.0 (2.5)
Griffin and Wilson are head and shoulders above Andrew Luck in QB Rating, which takes many factors into account. Turnovers are very costly to a team and Luck simply had too many.
---Completion %---
RGIII: 65.6 (2.5)
Luck: 54.1 (1)
Wilson: 64.1 (2.5)
Once again, Wilson and RGIII are neck and neck, while Luck falls farther behind because of accuracy issues.
---Yards per attempt---
RGIII: 8.1 (3)
Luck: 7.0 (1)
Wilson: 7.9 (2)
While luck puts up plenty of yards on volume, Griffin and Wilson consistently make the most of their passing plays, producing a full yard of additional offense every time they throw the ball. Griffin ranks 2nd in the league, while Wilson ranks 6th.
***Win/Loss record***
RGIII: 10-6 (2)
Luck: 11-5 (2)
Wilson: 11-5 (2)
Football is a team sport and the offense only gets the ball for half of the game. But QB play has clearly been a big factor in turning these three teams around from last season. I think this category is too close to call. All three teams have made the playoffs and while Washington has one less win than Indy or Seattle, they are riding an incredible 7-game winning streak.
***Team's dependence on QB for wins***
RGIII: (2)
Luck: (3)
Wilson: (1)
Wilson has the luxury of having perhaps the league's best defense on his side. They produce turnovers, give Wilson more time on the field, and keep the team in a position to win. Marshawn Lynch has been extremely productive this season as well, opening up more passing lanes and teams stack the box. Griffin has also benefitted from a strong running game, though the Redskins defense has been awful due to a string of injuries. Andrew Luck doesn't have much of a running game or a solid defense to rely on, which is why he is forced to throw the ball so much more than the other two rookies.
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Total points:
RGIII: (19)
Wilson: (15)
Luck: (14)
While Andrew Luck has carried the Colts on his back, he's been far too careless with the ball and his most impressive stats are padded by a huge volume of passing attempts. He's the Brett Favre of this year's RoY race. Russell Wilson has been very impressive this season as well, showing more than anyone expected and leading a very good Seahawks team to the postseason, but he still trails in nearly every single relevant passing category.
In my opinion, based on the analysis above, neither player stands a chance against Robert Griffin III in this race. RGIII has been the most efficient, explosive, and accurate rookie passer this season. His numbers aren't padded by 300 additional passing attempts or by having a dominant defense handing him the ball in good field position. He makes a shoddy offensive line look much better by using his scrambling ability and his presence on the field has opened up huge holes for
the running game. His intangibles have been equally as impressive, as he has become the clear leader of the team and driving force behind 7 straight wins, all of which were needed to make the playoffs.
Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have been spectacular this season, but this is clearly Robert Griffin III's award.