Coach Otis All-Value Team (1 Viewer)

[amnesiac]

wish this had come out yesterday before my redraft last night.

now i have to go find another league to jump into tonight.

 

[Patoons]

Riddle me this on Garcon. He put up 21-251-2 in the post season. But Collie posted 17-241-2. And now Anthony Gonzalez is back as well.In the post season, Manning threw the ball at a rate that would net him 683 passing attempts over a full season. His average number of attempts over the past 7 years was 530 attempts. He also had 4500 passing yards last year, which was just short of his career high.Bottom line, where is Garcon going to get more production from? Is Manning going to throw the ball 700 times? Will he hit 5500 passing yards? Do Collie and Gonzalez hold a clip board on the sidelines? Do Wayne and Clark do way worse?As an owner, I'd like to get on the Garcon train . . . but I just don't see where he is going to get a lot more to work with.

I think it's a combination of the above. Garcon continued to be more consistent as the season went on; I don't think it's only the postseason that was impressive for Garcon. If you breakdown Garcon's 2009 season, he wasn't targeted much before the bye (week 4) and missed time for roughly 3 games to close the season and still put up those numbers. Considering that, I'm finding it hard to see how he won't hit 1,000 in 2010 now that he has experience as a starter and a full year of playing time under his belt.Further examining his target pattern, it increased substantially as the year progressed last year. He was averaging around 8 targets per game after the Colts bye through the end of the season. All that considered, we add on his impressive postseason and I don't see how he's as overlooked as he is right now.I also believe Clark's year of 100 catches ~1100 yards was a result questionable options at the #2 and #3 WR spots for the better part of the season.Re: Gonzo, from everything I've seen/read, the Colts have always wanted Gonzo as a slot guy. I recall rumors from the front office prior to the 2009 draft that the front office thought they needed a legit outside WR. They didn't end up drafting anyone, but Garcon's filled that role nicely. Collie and Garcon appear to have been able to hold him off so far and I expect that to continue.

 

[Otis]

I was really expecting an Alexander the Great appearance on the list

The next person who mentions a professional football player by anything other than their name, I swear to God, I'm putting you on every gay porn and bondage mailing list I can find.

You can't be telling me you don't know who he is? Alexander the Great? That's ok. You will soon enough.Otis is spot on with Garcon. This guy gets no respect, but let's remember he put up 770 yards only 2 years out of MOUNT UNION and a 4 catch rookie season. This kid is going to be damn good.

Riddle me this on Garcon. He put up 21-251-2 in the post season. But Collie posted 17-241-2. And now Anthony Gonzalez is back as well.In the post season, Manning threw the ball at a rate that would net him 683 passing attempts over a full season. His average number of attempts over the past 7 years was 530 attempts. He also had 4500 passing yards last year, which was just short of his career high.

Bottom line, where is Garcon going to get more production from? Is Manning going to throw the ball 700 times? Will he hit 5500 passing yards? Do Collie and Gonzalez hold a clip board on the sidelines? Do Wayne and Clark do way worse?

As an owner, I'd like to get on the Garcon train . . . but I just don't see where he is going to get a lot more to work with.

Less targets for Wayne, better ROI for Garcon (i.e., more catches-per-target), and Manning matches his total yardage last year to result in a career year in 2010. Regarding pass attempts, forget the posteason, Manning during the regular season last year had 571 attempts, and he's done that twice before in his career, so I don't think it's unrealistic to see him surpassing his 530 attempt average. Note that his completion percentage has steadily increased, and he was near 70% last year. Also, he threw 33 TDs last year, but on the upside of his career he threw 49 in 2005. I'd argue he has better all around pass weapons now than he ever has, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him match that. That's a lot of receiving TD fantasy points for someone (and I can see Garcon easily besting his 4 TDs of last year). Note also that Garcon started 13 games last year, so if he starts a full season, there's no reason to think he can't build quite a bit onto his 47 catches.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I'm just here for the free dollar.

 

[Zoomanji]

I was really expecting an Alexander the Great appearance on the list :(

The next person who mentions a professional football player by anything other than their name, I swear to God, I'm putting you on every gay porn and bondage mailing list I can find.

 

[urbanhack]

Nice writeup, with one problem.Hawks prepare for weeks 15 & 16, and Forte plays @ MIN, NYJ. Hawks pass on this.

That's why you line up LJ against the Rams and Titans in those weeks

this is good shtick.

 

[Otis]

Nice writeup, with one problem.Hawks prepare for weeks 15 & 16, and Forte plays @ MIN, NYJ. Hawks pass on this.

That's why you line up LJ against the Rams and Titans in those weeks

this is good shtick.

 

[urbanhack]

Nice writeup, with one problem.Hawks prepare for weeks 15 & 16, and Forte plays @ MIN, NYJ. Hawks pass on this.

That's why you line up LJ against the Rams and Titans in those weeks

this is good shtick.

Good luck playing a back-up running back as one of your starters.

 

[Escape Goat]

:black<poop>dot:

 

[Football Critic]

DLO?

Maybe Derek Lowe? Im still confused.

I'm trying to decide on a flex for week 1. Got DLO, ARFO, and SHOGRE. Any tips?

This dont make sense...DLo is short For DeAngelothe names of Foster and Green would of been acceptable if I said DWill

I think it would be acceptable if you said DeAngelo Williams.

What about MJD, ADP, BMW, MSW you gonna pretend like you dont know who they are either?Are we gonna continue to be childish over shortening someones name whos is somewhat long?Yes I type DLo and will continue to do so, because everyone knows who it is

 

[Otis]

Nice writeup, with one problem.

Hawks prepare for weeks 15 & 16, and Forte plays @ MIN, NYJ. Hawks pass on this.

That's why you line up LJ against the Rams and Titans in those weeks

this is good shtick.

Good luck playing a back-up running back as one of your starters.

Who's he backing up?You rolling with Portis those weeks? Oof.

 

[Otis]

Yes I type DLo and will continue to do so, because everyone knows who it is

X

 

[tommyGunZ]

Oats - love the analysis and going out on a limb on lesser names. I'm probably in the minority, but due to my ADD, the Talented Mr Roto/Bill Simmons shtick takes away from your post IMO.

Look forward to more stuff from MOPtis in the future.

 

[urbanhack]

That's why you line up LJ against the Rams and Titans in those weeks

this is good shtick.

Good luck playing a back-up running back as one of your starters.

Who's he backing up?You rolling with Portis those weeks? Oof.

No. I'll be rolling with Grant, Best or Bradshaw.

 

[Insein]

What about MJD, ADP, BMW, MSW you gonna pretend like you dont know who they are either?Are we gonna continue to be childish over shortening someones name whos is somewhat long?Yes I type DLo and will continue to do so, because everyone knows who it is

I think MJD is the only one worthy of an abbreviation cause a) His name works that well and b) he's that damn good. In reality anytime I see ADP, I think Average Draft Position. And no one knows who DLo is.

 

[5Rings]

Joe Bryant gives us lots of good advice. Well, except for that one preseason he kept telling me not to take Frank Gore because Kevan Barlow or Michael Robinson or some other clown was the go-to-guy there, and I had to keep pulling Chase aside in a bar and plead with him that "you guys have got this one all wrong" but still nobody listened to old Oats, and we all know how that one turned out (with Calbear huddled in a corner in a pool of his own tears gripping a wet Kevan Barlow poster). That all went down in 2005, and this sort of feels a whole lot like 2005 to me.

This is awesome...and so true... Props, O

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Are we doing J-Chaz yet? Because that I could get on board with.

 

[Chaka]

Consider the gauntlet thrown down. I got the rookie Mike Williams with the attitude problem, you can have the vet Mike Williams with the eating disorder. But "hucking knuckleballs"? You are either just being funny, which is cool, or didn't watch the kid, which is a shame. Freeman looked like he could be a good one last year.Good post, like most of the WR calls, especially Garcon. I'd really be on board if you had Stafford on there instead of Bradford. Bradford might do better than people expect, but I cannot see him being an important part of winning fantasy teams. Stafford, on the other hand, is gonna give top 8 production, and he's still going around QB15-16.

I don't disagree on your Stafford call. With Calvin and Best, I think he's surrounded by talent on that side of the ball, and I think he's ready to make an impact. Was just a more obvious pick, and I was looking for the sneaky play. But I don't disagree.On Freeman, I disagree. It's the same as the Kevin Kolb situation. Everyone is telling me all of these QBs are going to have enormous breakout seasons, and I think they are dead wrong. These guys are going to flounder right out of the gates. They may have a good week here or there, but of course that will be the week you've got them benched. I have zero faith in the Tampa Bay offense. That's not fair. Like 0.5 faith. Like the kind of faith I had when I was 7 and my mom told me there was a tooth fairy and I was a smart enough to know that it sounded like complete BS but still just naive enough that I thought it actually could be the truth. That's the kind of faith I have in Kolb and Freeman. And I think this Freeman-to-rook connection is going to be much, much less interesting than everyone else seems to think.

I don't disagree with you about Freeman, necessarily. I don't predict a massive breakout, like I do for Stafford. But, I think he can be good enough for Mike Williams (the good one) to have a good (to great) rookie season. Freeman doesn't need to turn into McNabb in order for Williams to be a viable fantasy option.

Second year QBs rarely make the statistical jump that many are hoping for.It's still an injured second year QB and a rookie WR on a team without much offensive punch in general.I would keep my expectations low and allow myself to be pleasantly surprised if they outperform them.

 

[Chaka]

What about MJD, ADP, BMW, MSW you gonna pretend like you dont know who they are either?Are we gonna continue to be childish over shortening someones name whos is somewhat long?Yes I type DLo and will continue to do so, because everyone knows who it is

Actually no, everyone did not know who it was off the bat. It only became obvious from the additional qualifier you had to provide (20 TDs).It's fine to shorten names but don't go around trying to invent your own when the player in question already has a better one.Please accept this and move on.

 

[Otis]

I'm probably in the minority, but due to my ADD, the Talented Mr Roto/Bill Simmons shtick takes away from your post IMO.

I don't know what this means.

 

[Chaka]

While we're at it I wish Otis would stop with the Hawk speak.

Seriously, cut it out.

 

[Otis]

this is good shtick.

Good luck playing a back-up running back as one of your starters.

Who's he backing up?You rolling with Portis those weeks? Oof.

No. I'll be rolling with Grant, Best or Bradshaw.

I'm sorry for your loss.

 

[Chaka]

In reality anytime I see ADP, I think Average Draft Position.

Agreed. Although the context usually makes the distinction obvious.

 

[Otis]

While we're at it I wish Otis would stop with the Hawk speak.

Seriously, cut it out.

Sometimes it's us and them, and it just is what it is. Pick a side.

 

[ScottNorwood]

A whole lot of IT in this thread.

it=info

 

[Zow]

If you are bored I could use some help writing a brief. kthnxbai

 

[Dr. Gobbler]

Great job Otis. You're way off base on everyone except Harrison. You remind me of the twirling plastic bag in American Beauty. Twirling around aimlessly without direction... The most beautiful thing I've ever seen.

FYI. I'm buying Skittles with that dollar you're going to owe me.

 

[Chaka]

While we're at it I wish Otis would stop with the Hawk speak.

Seriously, cut it out.

Sometimes it's us and them, and it just is what it is. Pick a side.

No

 

[Abrantes]

Great job Otis. You're way off base on everyone except Harrison. You remind me of the twirling plastic bag in American Beauty. Twirling around aimlessly without direction... The most beautiful thing I've ever seen.FYI. I'm buying Skittles with that dollar you're going to owe me.

You only agree with Otis' stance on Harrison, yet you're waiting on a dollar that depends on Otis being wrong about him?

 

[Hoart Petterson]

I think it's obvious to any fantasy football physician that Pete Carroll has come down with a textbook case of Wuerffel Syndrome.

Symptoms:

- Presents soon after coach makes jump from big time college program to pros

- Involves player who was a stud in college during coach's tenure

- Player either has failed at other pro stops or has questionable pro skills

- Total denial of syndrome presence

- When speaking about player coach will recall plays made while in college

- More qualified players at position are benched or released

Prognosis:

- Team/coach/player can expect losing season

- Syndrome will cause friction within coaching staff as not every coach is afflicted

- Denial can last anywhere from 5-16 games

- Coach will be extra complimentary of (ex-)player once coach is cured and player is no longer playing

- Coach could have tearful press conference (Vermeil Disorder)

- Team will spend (inevitably) high draft pick on player at same position

 

[Exit 1]

If you are bored I could use some help writing a brief. kthnxbai

Fruit of the womb?

 

[bonesman]

"Hawk"?Oh come on.other than that I agree with pretty much everything except Bradford. He won't match Matt Stafford's rookie year, let alone Peyton Manning's.

He's obviously a poker player and has read the Brat's book....and I personally like the arrogance shtick when it's done in an over the top "I'm not really like this in real life" way. It's the subtle "servant to humanity" arrogance that really grinds my gears.fun read.

 

[tommyGunZ]

...and I personally like the arrogance shtick when it's done in an over the top "I'm not really like this in real life" way. It's the subtle "servant to humanity" arrogance that really grinds my gears.

agreed - one of the reasons Oats is one of my favorite posters.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

No. I'll be rolling with Grant, Best or Bradshaw.

since Hawks skip the first three rounds these players aren't available to them.

well Bradshaw would be, but not the other two.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Yes I type DLo and will continue to do so, because everyone knows who it is

X

Do you read this D-Lo (like j lo)

I like D < O (Dee Angle O)

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Great job Otis. You're way off base on everyone except Harrison. You remind me of the twirling plastic bag in American Beauty. Twirling around aimlessly without direction... The most beautiful thing I've ever seen.FYI. I'm buying Skittles with that dollar you're going to owe me.

You only agree with Otis' stance on Harrison, yet you're waiting on a dollar that depends on Otis being wrong about him?

 

[zoonation]

:this river's full of lost sharks:

 

[Otis]

Great job Otis. You're way off base on everyone except Harrison. You remind me of the twirling plastic bag in American Beauty. Twirling around aimlessly without direction... The most beautiful thing I've ever seen.FYI. I'm buying Skittles with that dollar you're going to owe me.

You only agree with Otis' stance on Harrison, yet you're waiting on a dollar that depends on Otis being wrong about him?

Ol' Hip gets it.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

Yes I type DLo and will continue to do so, because everyone knows who it is

X

Do you read this D-Lo (like j lo)

I like D < O (Dee Angle O)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

You know how Belichick usually lists everybody and his brother on the injury report?

He didn't list Wes Welker this week.

 

[Joe Bryant]

You know how Belichick usually lists everybody and his brother on the injury report?He didn't list Wes Welker this week.

Classic. I love that guy.J

 

[Homer]

See people, THIS is how it's done. Make bold predictions... none of this wavering "he will have a great week unless he doesn't" BS you find in other posters' writeups.

Otis for Staff

Yeah, but Bradford?

Anyone can come in here and tell you to draft Jay Cutler and start him when he plays DET, but I'm looking for some reaches here, because to me that's what makes this game most interesting. I know to get all-in when I've got bullets; teach me how to win with K-10o.

I'm telling you that your Team D strategy should be to pick up any crappy D facing the mighty Lambs this season.

What do I win?

 

[Otis]

You know how Belichick usually lists everybody and his brother on the injury report?He didn't list Wes Welker this week.

He's obviously reading this thread and trying to send a message.

 

[D'OHtis]

I agree with Bradford being best rookie talent at QB since Peyton. I don't know that he'll put up as many TD's as Peyton, but doesn't deter my feelings about him long term. People really really missed the boat taking Hardesty/Tate/Thomas/Benn (and anyone else) with those mid 1st rookie picks over Sam.

I was calling the 5-6 picks this year the worst in many many years because I saw the majority of owners taking meddling talents like Hardesty/Tate going over a young QB with elite potential like Bradford.

 

[Tanner9919]

Matt Forte

All value all day long and the hawk in me gets all giddy when I see something like this. It's perfect really. Guy has a down year after being a top-5 consensus pick the year before. His team was a mess last year, he was injured, and he looked injured out on the field. Fast forward a year, and you've got a guy calling the plays who actually knows about offense (and a guy who knows how to utilize a good pass catching back), and you've got a healthy Forte who, by all accounts, looks like his old self out on the field, and his biggest competition for touches is a 30-year-old back who has broken 1,000 yards rushing exactly once in his career, when the Vikings were desperate at the position. This journeyman isn't keeping real talent off the field. Now, don't get me wrong here -- Forte is NOT physically gifted as a worldbeater. But he is competent across the board, and is now back to health and in the right situation. He won't average 4.5 YPC, but he will outperform all expectations and be a starting caliber fantasy back. Hawks roll with Forte. Let the gups take Gore.

you do realize that not one of Mike Martz's last five offenses has finished with a winning record..you also realize during that 5-yr run, these offenses finish last in INT's and last in sacks allowed and last in rushing...(source Fantasyindex.com)

take it to the bank, Forte will not be anything more than a bottom-feeding RB this season, i.e., RB #29-32 or so..Cutler will get killed//turnovers will hurt time of possession which will hurt Forte's chances of becoming a decent viable starting fantasy RB ( or otherwise)

and you're absolutely if you think Forte is a better draft pick , or better player than Gore in 2010

 

[David Yudkin]

Matt Forte

All value all day long and the hawk in me gets all giddy when I see something like this. It's perfect really. Guy has a down year after being a top-5 consensus pick the year before. His team was a mess last year, he was injured, and he looked injured out on the field. Fast forward a year, and you've got a guy calling the plays who actually knows about offense (and a guy who knows how to utilize a good pass catching back), and you've got a healthy Forte who, by all accounts, looks like his old self out on the field, and his biggest competition for touches is a 30-year-old back who has broken 1,000 yards rushing exactly once in his career, when the Vikings were desperate at the position. This journeyman isn't keeping real talent off the field. Now, don't get me wrong here -- Forte is NOT physically gifted as a worldbeater. But he is competent across the board, and is now back to health and in the right situation. He won't average 4.5 YPC, but he will outperform all expectations and be a starting caliber fantasy back. Hawks roll with Forte. Let the gups take Gore.

you do realize that not one of Mike Martz's last five offenses has finished with a winning record..you also realize during that 5-yr run, these offenses finish last in INT's and last in sacks allowed and last in rushing...(source Fantasyindex.com)

take it to the bank, Forte will not be anything more than a bottom-feeding RB this season, i.e., RB #29-32 or so..Cutler will get killed//turnovers will hurt time of possession which will hurt Forte's chances of becoming a decent viable starting fantasy RB ( or otherwise)

and you're absolutely if you think Forte is a better draft pick , or better player than Gore in 2010

The last and rushing thing sounds nice but is not accurate.2008 SF - 27th

2007 DET - 31st

2006 DET - 32nd

2005 STL - 22nd

2004 STL - 25th

Admittedly the point is still valid (not great rushing totals).

As far as fantasy RB success . . .

2008 - Frank Gore - 14th

2007 - Kevin Jones - 28th

2006 - Kevin Jones - 23rd

2005 - Steven Jackson - 11th

2004 - Marshall Faulk - 30th

 

[buckeye35]

I'll put in my vote for thread of the year. Outstanding stuff, nice work Otis. I'd like to see someone track this team vs. a "Perfect Draft" team, for example, and see who is standing at the end of it all. Hawk vs. Shark? Should be interesting.

 

[dharmapunk]

Otis > MOP, and Joe Bryant has noticed.

 

[Otis]

As far as fantasy RB success . . .2008 - Frank Gore - 14th2007 - Kevin Jones - 28th2006 - Kevin Jones - 23rd2005 - Steven Jackson - 11th2004 - Marshall Faulk - 30th

These are some pretty deceiving stats, Yude. If you, like me, are of the mind that Kevin Jones isn't very good, and that Faulk had one foot in the grave (he started a single game in 2005, and didn't play in 2006), then you can write these stats off pretty quickly. Also, Faulk missed games in 2004 and Kevin Jones started only 10 and 12 games those seasons. If you give me the two above-average RB14 and RB11 finishes, since I think they are the only worthwhile data points above, I can live with that.:soaring:

 

[hook014]

As far as fantasy RB success . . .

2008 - Frank Gore - 14th

2007 - Kevin Jones - 28th

2006 - Kevin Jones - 23rd

2005 - Steven Jackson - 11th

2004 - Marshall Faulk - 30th

These are some pretty deceiving stats, Yude. If you, like me, are of the mind that Kevin Jones isn't very good, and that Faulk had one foot in the grave (he started a single game in 2005, and didn't play in 2006), then you can write these stats off pretty quickly. Also, Faulk missed games in 2004 and Kevin Jones started only 10 and 12 games those seasons.

If you give me the two above-average RB14 and RB11 finishes, since I think they are the only worthwhile data potions above, i can live with that.

:soaring:

At Otisguys if you put up bad info you get called out.

The Hawksnest is a tough place. Believe.