Crabtree or Nicks? (1 Viewer)

[Grahamburn]

At the moment Crabtree's ADP is higher than Nicks, but as the season approaches I expect Nicks to start sneaking into the 4th round as well. They're both similarly ranked in the 18-25 or so range for 2010.

Both players overcame obstacles in their rookie seasons to put up some fairly impressive numbers considering the circumstances.

Nicks got dinged in the first game, didn't start all year, and still managed 47 receptions for 790 yards and 6 TDs on only 74 targets. Nicks should play the WR1a role to Steve Smith, has the more proven QB, and showed a major propensity to break the big play. Will he command enough targets to outscore MC?

Crabtree held out of camp, didn't play or practice until week 7, and still had 48 catches for 625 yards and 2 TDs on 86 targets. Crabtree is the clear cut WR1 and should command more targets than Nicks. He's obviously extremely talented and plays a much easier schedule against the pass. Does he have the explosiveness to enter the elite tier, and can Alex Smith consistently get him the ball?

We're expecting improvement from both and each player has his own set of question marks heading into this season. If their ADPs creep into the same area as I expect, which player are you targeting for 2010?

 

[Balco]

I was about to start a thread on Crabtree. Top 5 fantasy receiver this year, IMO.

 

[Sabertooth]

Great question. I tend to like Nicks. I think he's the best receiver in the big apple. He's got a very stable situation around him and a QB that can and will use his talents, which are not far off of Crabtree's.

Also, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 49ers passing game. Alex Smith is not a great player. He's a below average NFL Qb.

 

[dagwood]

Great question. I tend to like Nicks. I think he's the best receiver in the big apple. He's got a very stable situation around him and a QB that can and will use his talents, which are not far off of Crabtree's.Also, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 49ers passing game. Alex Smith is not a great player. He's a below average NFL Qb.

I think Crabtree will outperform your ranking. Just my two cents.

 

[fightingillini]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.

Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

 

[Daniel Shirley]

Assuming a scenario where Dez Bryant performs up to his ceiling, does he fit anywhere any this discussion, or is that for the 2011 off season?

 

[bigmiiiiike]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Yes, but NYG is a much better passing offense as well. It would be interesting to see a study (any volunteers FBG staffers?) on the size of the pie available to WR1s on run heavy teams where the only a credible receiving threat at TE (I'm thinking San Diego the past few years with Gates/VJax) versus teams that have 1a and 1b WRs in a more pass heavy offense (the Giants aren't exactly the '99 Rams, but Smith/Nicks kind of resemble Bruce/Holt, or maybe Fitz/Boldin). My gut tells me that the 1a/1b (not sure which one Nicks is) WR has the chance at bigger numbers, just stereotyping by situation. For redraft 2010 purposes, I would probably side with Nicks.

 

[Grahamburn]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Crabtree should be a steady 5-6 catches a game player. Will he get enough red zone looks?Crabtree is going to be the 3rd option in the red zone behind Gore and Davis, while I think Nicks will be the top receiving option getting red zone targets for the Giants because of his size and huge hands. Couple that with his big play potential and Hakeem could approach 9 TDs. He had 6 on just 74 targets in 2009.While I expect Nicks' 16.8 yards per catch average to come down a bit, it's still an extremely impressive number. Smith may be taking away some of the underneath and intermediate catches, but Nicks could potentially only have 75 receptions and still get 1,200 yards. It's a tough call, which is why I started the thread.

 

[rizzler]

this is one of those cases where I love crabtree. his talent. watching him play... and I just want to have him on my team.

I think he makes for a great WR2 with obvious WR1 potential... I may have to reach for him this year... he's just the kind of guy I want on my roster to help me win and for pure enjoyment.

im high as hell on nicks too... if it was up to me id have both as my WR2 and wr2b

one can wish... I have a draft tonite (for work) and can almost guarantee when I come back tomorrow, Ill have both

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

 

[Grahamburn]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.

Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

If they have the same number of receptions Nicks will have a lot more yards.

 

[Phurfur]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

 

[rizzler]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.

Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

If they have the samen number of receptions Nicks will have a lot more yards.

don't know if I agree with that or not... it'll be close. very close.

 

[Sabertooth]

Assuming a scenario where Dez Bryant performs up to his ceiling, does he fit anywhere any this discussion, or is that for the 2011 off season?

IMO, his ceiling is higher than Miles Austin's ceiling so I think he's in the discussion. His floor is much lower (this season) than Crab or Nicks'.

 

[Grahamburn]

this is one of those cases where I love crabtree. his talent. watching him play... and I just want to have him on my team.I think he makes for a great WR2 with obvious WR1 potential... I may have to reach for him this year... he's just the kind of guy I want on my roster to help me win and for pure enjoyment. im high as hell on nicks too... if it was up to me id have both as my WR2 and wr2bone can wish... I have a draft tonite (for work) and can almost guarantee when I come back tomorrow, Ill have both

I'm also thinking along these lines, especially for drafts starting early. You could potentially take your RB1, RB2, and a stud QB in the first three rounds, Crabtree in round four, and Nicks in round five to round out a real nice start to a team if you believe in these two players.With Mike Sims-Walker, both Steve Smith(s), and Ochocinco being drafted in this area as well I think there's considerable value at the WR position in rounds 4 and 5.

 

[Grahamburn]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.

Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

If they have the samen number of receptions Nicks will have a lot more yards.

don't know if I agree with that or not... it'll be close. very close.

2009 yards per catch.16.8 ypc for Nicks.

13.0 ypc for Crabtree.

Their yardage may be close in the end, but if they have the same number of receptions it certainly won't be.

 

[jestertj]

Another question, might these two be available at the 4/5 or 5/6 (or later?) turn? If so, for guys that like to get 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds, would you be comfortable having these two be at the top of your WR stable for the season?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Nicks over Crabtree because:

[*]Better QB throwing to Nicks

[*]Nicks talent better suited for deep balls/red zone targets

[*]Giants offense will be balanced at worst, SF going run-heavy

[*]NYG sked has more potential shootouts, SF more potential blowouts

As great a talent as Crabtree is, I am becoming more convinced by the day that Nicks is just as good, and his skillset is more fantasy-friendly. Both ascending talents, so you look to situation, and Nicks is the clear winner there imo. Smith is just never going to be the kind of QB that challenges defenses, throws up jumpballs and lets WR talent take over, takes big hit to make a throw... he's a game manager and everything SF has done this offseason indicates that they will ask the D and running game to do the heavy lifting.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I just don't trust Alex Smith. He hasn't proven he can be productive when Frank Gore is heavily involved in the offense from a smashmouth run game perspective. I remember watching Smith last year operate well out of the shotgun, but he still had issues with traditional dropbacks.

I like Crabtree and he performed well even with the lengthy holdout. But I see his upside as WR2 because I just don't see him having many monster games which is essential for WR1 status. Nicks on the other hand has Manning and while he will be competing for targets with Smith, Manningham...talent usually wins out so long as he works hard to earn his keep. Nicks has it in spades.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Another question, might these two be available at the 4/5 or 5/6 (or later?) turn? If so, for guys that like to get 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds, would you be comfortable having these two be at the top of your WR stable for the season?

I would be, especially if you add in a Maclin/Hester in 7/8 and continue to pepper your roster with high upside fliers like Floyd, Garcon, Wallace, LMoore, DThomas

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.

Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

If they have the samen number of receptions Nicks will have a lot more yards.

don't know if I agree with that or not... it'll be close. very close.

2009 yards per catch.16.8 ypc for Nicks.

13.0 ypc for Crabtree.

Their yardage may be close in the end, but if they have the same number of receptions it certainly won't be.

Nicks has more deep speed, and a QB more willing to test the defense deep. Both are amazing after the catch, among the best in the league already.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I just don't trust Alex Smith.

 

[TheFanatic]

I own Nicks in one league and would take Crabtree in a second over Nicks if offered straight up.

 

[fightingillini]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

Gore is a stud RB. Most of his value is going to be running the football, which will help open the field. I think Davis will probably have about 70-75 receptions this year. The SF passing game is generally going to go through Crabtree and Davis, with Gore getting receptions out of the backfield. There's more competition in NY for the passing game, but there will be a bigger piece of the pie, as I expect E Manning to throw more yards that Alex Smith. I just think that S Smith is a lock to get a good chunk of that pie. For me to think Nicks will be better than Crabtree, then I would have to believe that Nicks will surpass S Smith in the food chain in NY. I don't quite see that.Guess I didn't word my response well. Generally what I was trying to say is that NY has more options than SF, but , while SF has less options, SF has other great talent that defenses need to focus on.Both are talented WRs.....I just would like the WR who will be the clear #1WR target and potentially become the #1 target over Davis. I see Crabtree getting a lot more receptions than Nicks. The main question will be TDs. I don't see any reason why Crabtree can't be a redzone threat for SF....the guy is supremely talented.

 

[Go deep]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

I was thinking the same thing. This is a perfect example of bias. Seeing the good in the players you like, and the bad in the players you dont.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

Gore is a stud RB. Most of his value is going to be running the football, which will help open the field. I think Davis will probably have about 70-75 receptions this year. The SF passing game is generally going to go through Crabtree and Davis, with Gore getting receptions out of the backfield. There's more competition in NY for the passing game, but there will be a bigger piece of the pie, as I expect E Manning to throw more yards that Alex Smith. I just think that S Smith is a lock to get a good chunk of that pie. For me to think Nicks will be better than Crabtree, then I would have to believe that Nicks will surpass S Smith in the food chain in NY. I don't quite see that.Guess I didn't word my response well. Generally what I was trying to say is that NY has more options than SF, but , while SF has less options, SF has other great talent that defenses need to focus on.Both are talented WRs.....I just would like the WR who will be the clear #1WR target and potentially become the #1 target over Davis. I see Crabtree getting a lot more receptions than Nicks. The main question will be TDs. I don't see any reason why Crabtree can't be a redzone threat for SF....the guy is supremely talented.

Josh Morgan is just as good as Manningham, and while Smith might catch more balls than Nicks, Davis will get a lot more red zone love than Crabtree. There's as much chance that Crabtree becomes a 1A in the red zone as there is that Nicks becomes the 1A in the target pecking order. Crabtree as the clear #1 target among WRs is blunted by the presence of Davis, and Nicks likelihood as the second WR in terms of targets is enhanced by more of those targets being downfield targets and red zone targets, where is superior to Smith. All in all you have a wash when it comes to how supporting cast will help/hurt these guys. Thats why you turn to quality of surrounding pass offense to break the tie, and you even agree that NY passing game will be more productive.

 

[T with T]

I was about to start a thread on Crabtree. Top 5 fantasy receiver this year, IMO.

How do you figure.... he is in no way better then nicks... NICKS is a way better playmaker as evidenced by his 6 tds in 74 targets... crabtree had 2 with 84 targets... more balls fired his way and could only make 2 tds worth... nicks is bigger,stronger/more physical bigger hands and plays in a way better offense.. I take NICKS over crabs

 

[T with T]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

HAHAHA thats hilarious.... Nicks tripled the output of crabtree with less targets and had more yards with less targets... yea that makes sense

 

[T with T]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

your missing the point sigmund like some of the other FBGers have made clear... crabtree plays in a run first offense with a crap qb and is third option in the redzone... only 130 rec for the niners last year while the GIants were over 200... who gives a crap about smith no one cares as he could help take pressure off nicks I mean geez. when has two wrs ever thrived on the same team I doubt that ever happens.. DOH... anyways the point is Nicks is number 1 guy in redzone and with 6 tds in 74 targets he will still get 70-80 catches for 1200 and 8-10 tds.... crabtree i think 70-1000-6 Nicks wins

 

[PhantomJB]

Another question, might these two be available at the 4/5 or 5/6 (or later?) turn? If so, for guys that like to get 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds, would you be comfortable having these two be at the top of your WR stable for the season?

Good strategy but you've got some execution risk so may be dependent on draft slot.I"ve been targeting Crabtree in every 3-WR mock draft so have been paying close attention to ADP. He rarely makes it past 5.3 and in most cases is between 4.6 - 5.1, with some people even reaching into the early 4th.

 

[footballman_696969]

Crabtree went 4.01 and Nicks went 5.04 in the PPR MOCK I did last night.

Personally I like Nicks better and think he is good value at 5.04.

 

[PhantomJB]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

your missing the point sigmund like some of the other FBGers have made clear... crabtree plays in a run first offense with a crap qb and is third option in the redzone... only 130 rec for the niners last year while the GIants were over 200... who gives a crap about smith no one cares as he could help take pressure off nicks I mean geez. when has two wrs ever thrived on the same team I doubt that ever happens.. DOH... anyways the point is Nicks is number 1 guy in redzone and with 6 tds in 74 targets he will still get 70-80 catches for 1200 and 8-10 tds.... crabtree i think 70-1000-6 Nicks wins

I think this is a little over-simplified. While Smith does have a checkered past, after he got the starting job he had an 81.5 passer rtg which was better than MAtt Ryan who gets tons of love on this board. Smith's 2,350/18/12 for 11 games extrapolates to 3,400/26/17 for a full season.My interpretation of what fightingillini is saying is that the Giants' situation looks like a competitive target environment more like a poor man's Saints or Colts. Already there is talk of Hicks "competing" with Manningham for the starting job. Even if he wins, does that mean Manningham doesn't take away some looks? Plus it seems apparent that the G-men may look to play more smash-mouth vs. last year's wide open approach which could put Eli back to around 3,500-3,800 pass yds.On the other hand, the 49ers situation looks more like the Falcons. Smith's numbers look very similar to Ryan (not saying Smith is more talented, just objectively looking at the facts), both teams have a bell-cow RB (Gore/Turner), White is more experienced than Crabtree but looks eerily similar in a lot of ways with neither having a clear WR2 (unlike Giants).I give the nod to Crabtree based on the above analysis.ETA:49ers also similar to Falcons in terms of stud TE (vs. WR2).Where Crabtree falls short is targets / game only at around 7 last year. I think Gore steals some of those.Projections: Crabtree 1100/7. Nicks 980/7.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

your missing the point sigmund like some of the other FBGers have made clear... crabtree plays in a run first offense with a crap qb and is third option in the redzone... only 130 rec for the niners last year while the GIants were over 200... who gives a crap about smith no one cares as he could help take pressure off nicks I mean geez. when has two wrs ever thrived on the same team I doubt that ever happens.. DOH... anyways the point is Nicks is number 1 guy in redzone and with 6 tds in 74 targets he will still get 70-80 catches for 1200 and 8-10 tds.... crabtree i think 70-1000-6 Nicks wins

I think this is a little over-simplified. While Smith does have a checkered past, after he got the starting job he had an 81.5 passer rtg which was better than MAtt Ryan who gets tons of love on this board. Smith's 2,350/18/12 for 11 games extrapolates to 3,400/26/17 for a full season.My interpretation of what fightingillini is saying is that the Giants' situation looks like a competitive target environment more like a poor man's Saints or Colts. Already there is talk of Hicks "competing" with Manningham for the starting job. Even if he wins, does that mean Manningham doesn't take away some looks? Plus it seems apparent that the G-men may look to play more smash-mouth vs. last year's wide open approach which could put Eli back to around 3,500-3,800 pass yds.On the other hand, the 49ers situation looks more like the Falcons. Smith's numbers look very similar to Ryan (not saying Smith is more talented, just objectively looking at the facts), both teams have a bell-cow RB (Gore/Turner), White is more experienced than Crabtree but looks eerily similar in a lot of ways with neither having a clear WR2 (unlike Giants).I give the nod to Crabtree based on the above analysis.ETA:49ers also similar to Falcons in terms of stud TE (vs. WR2).Where Crabtree falls short is targets / game only at around 7 last year. I think Gore steals some of those.Projections: Crabtree 1100/7. Nicks 980/7.

1) if you take away what Smith did when the niners were down three touchdowns at the half (Packers and Texans), he was one of the worst fantasy QBs in the league. 2) the Giants only threw three more times a game in 2009 than they did in 2008. They were pretty much right in the middle of the league in pass and rush attempts per game. They were balanced last year, not wide open. Even if they go back to tilt to the run, I think Eli having 31 attempts a game vs 34 wont greatly change the outlooks of Nicks and Smith. If they do go run-heavy in 10, that seems to hurt Smith more than Nicks, because more of Smith's targets are functional equivalents of runs - high percentage throws to set up good down and distances .3) The 49ers have a clear WR2 - Josh Morgan, who had 38 targets to Crabtree's 50 and VD's 46 over the last 6 games of the season.4) Im not sure what having a bell-cow RB has to do with a WRs production. The top two WRs in FF (Fitz and Andre) both play on RBBC teams.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Crabtree went 4.01 and Nicks went 5.04 in the PPR MOCK I did last night.

Personally I like Nicks better and think he is good value at 5.04.

I think they're relatively close but in a PPR league, I like Crabtree more than I like Nicks. Nicks to me also has more competition in Smith and Manningham than what Crabtree has over in S.F. There's potential by season's end that Crabtree will be SF's Wr1 and Nicks Wr3. To me right now, Crabtree in a PPR is a safer play that more than likely will be productive.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nicks over Crabtree because:

[*]Better QB throwing to Nicks

[*]Nicks talent better suited for deep balls/red zone targets

[*]Giants offense will be balanced at worst, SF going run-heavy

[*]NYG sked has more potential shootouts, SF more potential blowouts

As great a talent as Crabtree is, I am becoming more convinced by the day that Nicks is just as good, and his skillset is more fantasy-friendly. Both ascending talents, so you look to situation, and Nicks is the clear winner there imo. Smith is just never going to be the kind of QB that challenges defenses, throws up jumpballs and lets WR talent take over, takes big hit to make a throw... he's a game manager and everything SF has done this offseason indicates that they will ask the D and running game to do the heavy lifting.

 

[Grahamburn]

Crabtree went 4.01 and Nicks went 5.04 in the PPR MOCK I did last night.

Personally I like Nicks better and think he is good value at 5.04.

I think they're relatively close but in a PPR league, I like Crabtree more than I like Nicks. Nicks to me also has more competition in Smith and Manningham than what Crabtree has over in S.F. There's potential by season's end that Crabtree will be SF's Wr1 and Nicks Wr3. To me right now, Crabtree in a PPR is a safer play that more than likely will be productive.

I tend to agree with you that Crabtree may be the "safer" play, but if you're deciding between these two players as a WR2 or WR3 is that really what you're looking for?I'd also argue that Nicks doesn't really have as much competition as everyone seems to be implying. Smith runs the short move the chains routes. He's not stealing targets from Nicks in that area. The Giants like to run hitches to get the ball in Nicks' hands quickly and he'll be the intermediate/deep threat as evidenced by his 16.8 ypc average in 2009. If healthy, Nicks will approach 75 catches for 1,200 yards and 9 TDs.

I don't think there are enough TDs to go around in San Francisco for Crabtree to equal that kind of production. I wouldn't be surprised to find him around 1,200 yards as well, but his TD total will be closer to 6.

Technically, Crabtree faces equal competition for touches in SF with Gore and Vernon Davis. He may be the unquestioned WR1, but he's not the number one option on his team, especially in the red zone where it really counts. Couple that with the weak competition the 49ers face this season and we're probably going to see a lot of grind it out wins late in games.

The Giants face tougher competition and have a weaker defense. I'd expect them to be passing quite a bit more than San Francisco.

 

[redBourne]

I was about to start a thread on Crabtree. Top 5 fantasy receiver this year, IMO.

How do you figure.... he is in no way better then nicks... NICKS is a way better playmaker as evidenced by his 6 tds in 74 targets... crabtree had 2 with 84 targets... more balls fired his way and could only make 2 tds worth... nicks is bigger,stronger/more physical bigger hands and plays in a way better offense.. I take NICKS over crabs

I posted something similar in the Hicks/Manningham thread, but to reiterate, my first year into FF I was all over Marc Boerigter as my super sleeper. In 2002 he had 20 receptions and 8 tds. I know that I'm providing an extreme example, but you get the point. And Nicks isn't "bigger, stronger" either.Nicks is listed at 6-1 and 212 lbs.Crab is listed at 6-1 and 214 lbs.Nicks had 47 receptions for the year and couldn't keep Manningham off the field.Crab had 48 receptions and missed a LARGE chunk of his rookie season.

 

[PhantomJB]

While I like Nicks' talent....I like Crabtree more. Nicks has to share the ball with S Smith, Manningham, Boss, as well as the NYG running game. I like what they are doing in SF. While I don't belive Alex Smith is an elite talent, he did vastly improve at the end of last year. Vernon Davis is a stud, Frank Gore is a stud, so defenses can't just focus on Crabtree. He has more potential to put up top 10 stats, and that's what your looking for in WRs ranked around 20-25. Harder for Nicks to do that if S Smith is taking 90+ catches away from the NYG passing game.

Nicks outlook is dinged b/c he has to share with good players, but Crabtree having stud teammates that make it so Ds cant focus on him is a plus?

your missing the point sigmund like some of the other FBGers have made clear... crabtree plays in a run first offense with a crap qb and is third option in the redzone... only 130 rec for the niners last year while the GIants were over 200... who gives a crap about smith no one cares as he could help take pressure off nicks I mean geez. when has two wrs ever thrived on the same team I doubt that ever happens.. DOH... anyways the point is Nicks is number 1 guy in redzone and with 6 tds in 74 targets he will still get 70-80 catches for 1200 and 8-10 tds.... crabtree i think 70-1000-6 Nicks wins

I think this is a little over-simplified. While Smith does have a checkered past, after he got the starting job he had an 81.5 passer rtg which was better than MAtt Ryan who gets tons of love on this board. Smith's 2,350/18/12 for 11 games extrapolates to 3,400/26/17 for a full season.My interpretation of what fightingillini is saying is that the Giants' situation looks like a competitive target environment more like a poor man's Saints or Colts. Already there is talk of Hicks "competing" with Manningham for the starting job. Even if he wins, does that mean Manningham doesn't take away some looks? Plus it seems apparent that the G-men may look to play more smash-mouth vs. last year's wide open approach which could put Eli back to around 3,500-3,800 pass yds.On the other hand, the 49ers situation looks more like the Falcons. Smith's numbers look very similar to Ryan (not saying Smith is more talented, just objectively looking at the facts), both teams have a bell-cow RB (Gore/Turner), White is more experienced than Crabtree but looks eerily similar in a lot of ways with neither having a clear WR2 (unlike Giants).I give the nod to Crabtree based on the above analysis.ETA:49ers also similar to Falcons in terms of stud TE (vs. WR2).Where Crabtree falls short is targets / game only at around 7 last year. I think Gore steals some of those.Projections: Crabtree 1100/7. Nicks 980/7.

1) if you take away what Smith did when the niners were down three touchdowns at the half (Packers and Texans), he was one of the worst fantasy QBs in the league. 2) the Giants only threw three more times a game in 2009 than they did in 2008. They were pretty much right in the middle of the league in pass and rush attempts per game. They were balanced last year, not wide open. Even if they go back to tilt to the run, I think Eli having 31 attempts a game vs 34 wont greatly change the outlooks of Nicks and Smith. If they do go run-heavy in 10, that seems to hurt Smith more than Nicks, because more of Smith's targets are functional equivalents of runs - high percentage throws to set up good down and distances .3) The 49ers have a clear WR2 - Josh Morgan, who had 38 targets to Crabtree's 50 and VD's 46 over the last 6 games of the season.4) Im not sure what having a bell-cow RB has to do with a WRs production. The top two WRs in FF (Fitz and Andre) both play on RBBC teams.

Good points. The much better QB/offense argument is compelling.Surprised to see so many targets go Josh Morgan's way since they really didn't translate into much in the box score but that is a valid concern since he has some skills. Still a little concerned about Manningham vulturing targets from Nicks more than people think (41 to 34 in Wks 11-16 when they both played) but plenty of debate on that in the other thread.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think Crabtree has a lot of talent but because of the offense in San Fran and them spending 2 pretty high picks on some run stuffing types along the OL, and a defensive minded HC even more so than Tom Coughlin...if Crabtree were on the Giants and Micks in SF, this might look different. But I think when you factor in a big talent level like Nicks with talent around him and a division where the Giants are going to have to put up a lot of points.

I have Nicks slated for about 65/1000/8Tds...I don't see Crabtree doing that as easily.

But Crabtree will have some moments this year, guy has a lot of talent there is no denying that. I think he got caught up in a lot of weirdness last year with his contract and I am anxious to see what a good full training camp will do for him this year.

 

[T with T]

Crabtree went 4.01 and Nicks went 5.04 in the PPR MOCK I did last night.

Personally I like Nicks better and think he is good value at 5.04.

I think they're relatively close but in a PPR league, I like Crabtree more than I like Nicks. Nicks to me also has more competition in Smith and Manningham than what Crabtree has over in S.F. There's potential by season's end that Crabtree will be SF's Wr1 and Nicks Wr3. To me right now, Crabtree in a PPR is a safer play that more than likely will be productive.

Are u kidding nicks wr3... come on he is 2 for sure maybe more like 1a. 1b... like fitz/boldin... smith may have more catches but nicks more yards/tds

 

[Balco]

Taking his averages, Crabtree's stats over a 16 game schedule last season would be 76 catches and 998 yards.

He is an absolute beast, and with a full year learning the offense, and the fact the 49ers will incorporate him more in the offense, I expect a year 2 bust out similar to Larry Fitzgeralds. He is a beast all over the field, he snatches the ball in the air, and is an inviting red zone target.

I predict 90 catches, 1200 yards and 11 tds.

 

[fightingillini]

anyways the point is Nicks is number 1 guy in redzone and with 6 tds in 74 targets he will still get 70-80 catches for 1200 and 8-10 tds.... crabtree i think 70-1000-6 Nicks wins

#1 guy in the redzone? First, look at the NYG stats from last year. EManning threw 74 times in the redzone last year. Nicks was targeted SEVEN times. That's right. Seven. S Smith had 24, Manningham had 8, Boss had 15. I am not sure why you think he's going to be the #1 guy in the redzone.Second, for Nicks to get 80 catches with a 63% catch rate (his ratio last year), Nicks needs about 125 targets. Do you honestly think he's going to get that? He had 74 targets last year. Now I know he was nicked up early in the year, but if you annualize his targets, he gets about 100 targets. So swap him with Manningham, who had 99 targets last year. It's clear that S Smith is going to get the most targets. He's the possession receiver. Nicks is more a deeper big play option. Nicks will be lucky to catch 70.Third, Nicks scored 4 TDs from 35 yards out. You think that's going to continue? It could, but I wouldn't guarantee it. Plus, Nicks had 5 games last year (out of the 12 that he played) where he caught 3 or less passes. He's got potential to be a feast or famine guy on a weekly basis.

 

[LBH]

Ill take Crabtree pretty easily. I like the talent of both WRs but i play mostly in PPR and I see more consistancy with Crabtrees potential for targets/receptions week to week. Roddy White and Calvin Johnson both had well below average QB play within the last few years and put up WR1 production. I see the same happening with Crabtree

 

[TeamSnooki]

I'm taking Crabs over Nicks.

While I agree that the Giants will have a better passing attack than the 49ers, I still think the depth around the Giants won't let Nicks match Crabs numbers. Also I can't see the Giants throwing more than they did last year. The dependence on Crabs in the offense should make him more consistent as well.

Barring injury, I can't see the amount of targets per game for either change so much that it would give Nicks the opportunity to finish with much better numbers. However, I could see a fairly big spike for Crabs. (I think the lack of WR receptions for the 49ers isn't a necessarily horrible downgrade but as an opportunity for improvement.)

Give Crabs a full training camp with his team and he should have a very good year. I'm not too worried about the lack of TDs last year, I think he takes a few from Davis and ends with 5-8 TDs. I'm guessing that the 13 TDs from a TE seems like an outlier and that Davis will settle in with 8-9 for a few years.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.

Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

If they have the samen number of receptions Nicks will have a lot more yards.

I doubt it..

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

HAHAHA thats hilarious.... Nicks tripled the output of crabtree with less targets and had more yards with less targets... yea that makes sense

Take a look at the preseason prep between the 2 players, and their strengths in college... Try to make it past the final stat line and do a bit of investigation...

 

[Avery]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

HAHAHA thats hilarious.... Nicks tripled the output of crabtree with less targets and had more yards with less targets... yea that makes sense

Take a look at the preseason prep between the 2 players, and their strengths in college... Try to make it past the final stat line and do a bit of investigation...

Nicks missed a good part of training camp due to injury. It's not staying at home but it's not like he as out there every practice either.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

HAHAHA thats hilarious.... Nicks tripled the output of crabtree with less targets and had more yards with less targets... yea that makes sense

Take a look at the preseason prep between the 2 players, and their strengths in college... Try to make it past the final stat line and do a bit of investigation...

Nicks missed a good part of training camp due to injury. It's not staying at home but it's not like he as out there every practice either.

Crabtree didn't see work till week 7... are we comparing apples to pineapples?

 

[Avery]

I see Crabtree having several multi-TD games this year. The best hands on the team, how do you not go to him for your red zone pass attempts. Great in open space as well.. He may not average 6-7 receptions a game but the ones he does get will be good.Nicks on the other hand has a great opportunity this year as well, maybe less talent but great chances none the less. I see him maybe matching Crabtree in receptions with less yards and TD's

HAHAHA thats hilarious.... Nicks tripled the output of crabtree with less targets and had more yards with less targets... yea that makes sense

Take a look at the preseason prep between the 2 players, and their strengths in college... Try to make it past the final stat line and do a bit of investigation...

Nicks missed a good part of training camp due to injury. It's not staying at home but it's not like he as out there every practice either.

Crabtree didn't see work till week 7... are we comparing apples to pineapples?

Have no idea where your disconnect is.You were comparing "preseason prep" and looking "past the final state line and do a bit of investigation" and I continued on that theme by pointing out that Nicks had limited preseason prep due to injury. I also said it was more prep than staying at home, which Crabtree did.Also, if you want to "continue to look past the stat line", Nicks put up most of his numbers with a broken toe.