We had multiple Quarterbacks throw for almost 5,000 yards last season and people are projecting Thomas for less than 1,000?
Peyton will throw for a minimum of 4,000 yards this season with an over / under of about 500 yards.
Demaryius Thomas has a career statline of:
54 Catches / 834 Yards / 6 Touchdowns
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Ask yourself, how many catches do you think Demaryius Thomas can catch with Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Logic dictates that he will catch at least 70 passes from Manning this year (a little more than double the 32 he caught last year), especially when there are games on the schedule that could potentially be shootouts:
Steelers
Falcons
Texans
Patriots
Chargers x2
Raiders x2
Saints
Panthers
Throw in the fact that both Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Reggie Wayne all caught about 60 - 70 passes the past few years; let's pencil in Demaryius Thomas for a floor of about 70 catches:
70 Catches (at a career YPC of 15.4) / 1,078 Yards
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Thomas had 4 Touchdowns last year and I believe the Broncos will be in scoring position quite a bit more than last year with Tebow at the helm. I also believe it would be in the Broncos best interest to have Peyton passing the ball in the RZ as opposed to handing it off to one of those Running backs.
Without turning this into a huge novel, these are my projections:
Floor:
70 Catches / 1,150 Yards / 6 Touchdowns
Ceiling:
90 Catches / 1,386 Yards / 14 Touchdowns
I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
great points..DT is a tough player to get a read on...but he's certainly one the best lottery picks out there....at worst you could get ho-hum WR4 numbers out of him (65-70 catches), at best, he's a top 10-12 WR..
chances are, he's somewhere in the middle, and people will draft him too early..
80-1120-7. 14 yards per catch.
If I'm going to take a lottery pick from the Broncos, it's going to be McGahee..he's the real play here..