Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Doug Martin Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'll go on record saying I think Blount is more productive per touch than Martin in 2012. But this staff drafted Martin so we'll see how they handle the situation. I've cited the 2011 and 2010 RB elusive ratings in several threads, which I think shed some light on just how good of a back Blount is. The whole team struggled in 2011, so to me his 4.2 ypc was actually pretty impressive considering how often he got hit behind the line. With Nicks added to the line and a new coaching staff, I won't be the least bit surprised to see him return to his 5.0 ypc form.

Martin was a late first round pick out of Boise State. It could easily take him a year to get used to the pro game. Even though Blount has been working on his pass protection and receiving, I think the coaching staff lets Martin handle 3rd downs.

Blount 220 carries x 4.8 ypc = 1056 yds 8 TD, 15 rec x 8 = 120 yds 0 TD

Martin 120 carries x 4.2 ypc = 504 yds 2 TD, 30 rec x 7 = 210 yds 1 TD

 

[butcher boy]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

 

[butcher boy]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

But how many of the young backs on that list were drafted by a new coaching staff? If the whispers are true that Blount gave up when the team tanked last year, that kind of attitude won't fly with Schiano at the helm. Martin is a perfect match for the new coaching style this team is now under.

 

[jurb26]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

It's not enough to simply be younger. You also have to be better. That wasn't the case for many on Thai list. Injuries also effected some guys.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

It's not enough to simply be younger. You also have to be better. That wasn't the case for many on Thai list. Injuries also effected some guys.

It's much easier to look back now and say they weren't better. Each of these players had hype trains that people hopped aboard. I'm simply pointing out that we can't push Blount aside because of past history of young RBs struggling.

 

[butcher boy]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

It's not enough to simply be younger. You also have to be better. That wasn't the case for many on Thai list. Injuries also effected some guys.

It's much easier to look back now and say they weren't better. Each of these players had hype trains that people hopped aboard. I'm simply pointing out that we can't push Blount aside because of past history of young RBs struggling.

It's much more valuable to look at each situation individually, and when you look at Martin's, it really points to him having a decent year, and exceeding Blount.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

It's not enough to simply be younger. You also have to be better. That wasn't the case for many on Thai list. Injuries also effected some guys.

It's much easier to look back now and say they weren't better. Each of these players had hype trains that people hopped aboard. I'm simply pointing out that we can't push Blount aside because of past history of young RBs struggling.

It's much more valuable to look at each situation individually, and when you look at Martin's, it really points to him having a decent year, and exceeding Blount.

I like Martin and Blount, but i'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Martin has already had a small injury and Blount looks recharged taking the 1st team reps.

 

[FF Ninja]

But how many of the young backs on that list were drafted by a new coaching staff? If the whispers are true that Blount gave up when the team tanked last year, that kind of attitude won't fly with Schiano at the helm. Martin is a perfect match for the new coaching style this team is now under.

Um, how many rookies were drafted by the previous coaching staff? Whether the staffs were new or not, all of those guys were drafted in a high position by the staff that coached them that year and yet still chose to give the lion's share of carries to the incumbent.Who said Blount gave up last year? He got pulled out of the game a lot by an incompetent coaching staff, but when he was actually in the game he was gaining yards after contact and making people miss. Not sure what else you can ask of a guy.This staff may have had some preconceived notions about Blount's game (or deficiencies in his game) that Blount is working hard to change, and by all accounts he's been doing pretty well at that. The guy has proven to be one of the better pure runners in the game, while also not impressing in blocking, receiving, or fumbling, but those latter aspects don't make the former not true. He's got two years in the league and now he and Martin both have one camp with this staff. We'll see how it shakes out, but I think the risk/reward for drafting Blount is very favorable this year. And if you are in a keeper or dynasty league, he'll be a FA next year, I believe.

 

[butcher boy]

TB did not draft Martin to not have an immediate impact. The new coaching staff is going to have this team disciplined and playing tough, hard football and I dont think Blount fits that role as well as Martin can. Martin is NFL ready and I think his numbers will refelct that.

EDIT: Also of note is that TB has one of the most favorable SOS swings this year. Their schedule is going to be a lot easier this year.

210/985/6 35/320/1

I posted this in another thread but believe it fits here as well. Many times lately we've thought that the young RB will immediately take over as the starter and it hasn't happened for many reasons.1) Dwill vs Jstew

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram

7) Addai vs Donald Brown

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden

11) Tolbert vs Mathews

It's not enough to simply be younger. You also have to be better. That wasn't the case for many on Thai list. Injuries also effected some guys.

It's much easier to look back now and say they weren't better. Each of these players had hype trains that people hopped aboard. I'm simply pointing out that we can't push Blount aside because of past history of young RBs struggling.

It's much more valuable to look at each situation individually, and when you look at Martin's, it really points to him having a decent year, and exceeding Blount.

I like Martin and Blount, but i'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Martin has already had a small injury and Blount looks recharged taking the 1st team reps.

I think I've already mentioned my reasons.- Martin has superior receiving skills than Blount.

- Martin was HC Schaino's pick. He has a similar run style to Ray Rice, whom Schiano coached at Rutgers.

- Blount hasn't shown he has the work ethic to fit into Schiano's philosophy.

Unless you're banking on both a complete turnaround in Blount's work ethic, receiving, and fumbles, as well as Coach Schiano forgetting that he traded into the first round to pick Martin, then Martin is the superior running back here.

 

[butcher boy]

Um, how many rookies were drafted by the previous coaching staff? Whether the staffs were new or not, all of those guys were drafted in a high position by the staff that coached them that year and yet still chose to give the lion's share of carries to the incumbent.

Greg Schiano traded to be able to pick Martin in the draft. It's obvious he's implementing a system tailored perfectly for Martin's skills.

Who said Blount gave up last year? He got pulled out of the game a lot by an incompetent coaching staff, but when he was actually in the game he was gaining yards after contact and making people miss. Not sure what else you can ask of a guy.

Combination of his stats at the end of the and whispers and rumors on various blogs including his player profile on this site.

This staff may have had some preconceived notions about Blount's game (or deficiencies in his game) that Blount is working hard to change, and by all accounts he's been doing pretty well at that.

Training camp and pre-season will tell us if this is indeed the case. As it stands now however, we have a situation where Blount grossly underachieved last year, possibly has a bad rep, and a new coaching staff in place that traded to draft a rookie RB with skills that are in a lot of ways superior to Blount.Obviously this is an interesting situation to monitor in training camp.

 

[FF Ninja]

Greg Schiano traded to be able to pick Martin in the draft. It's obvious he's implementing a system tailored perfectly for Martin's skills.

The first part is very possibly true. The second part is pure speculation. The word obvious has no place here.

Who said Blount gave up last year? He got pulled out of the game a lot by an incompetent coaching staff, but when he was actually in the game he was gaining yards after contact and making people miss. Not sure what else you can ask of a guy.

Combination of his stats at the end of the and whispers and rumors on various blogs including his player profile on this site.

Considering the whole team fell apart, his 4.2 ypc and 10 ypr were very solid. Whispers and blog numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Are you ignoring the fact (not rumor) that Blount was running with the 1st team offense so far this year? I'm not putting a lot of stock into that, but I'd say it holds more weight than offseason blog rumors...

Training camp and pre-season will tell us if this is indeed the case. As it stands now however, we have a situation where Blount grossly underachieved last year, possibly has a bad rep, and a new coaching staff in place that traded to draft a rookie RB with skills that are in a lot of ways superior to Blount.Obviously this is an interesting situation to monitor in training camp.

Again, in no way did Blount "grossly underachieve". He did what he could in his limited opportunities on a team that the coaching staff had lost control of. If anyone grossly underachieved it was Freeman and M.Williams. Blount was still breaking tackles and hurdling people. But when your QB goes from throwing 25/6 to 16/22, the offense just doesn't move quite as well.Additionally, to proclaim any of Martin's skills superior to Blount's is pure speculation. While Martin was playing in the WAC, Blount has amassed 385 NFL carries at a 4.64 ypc clip and more top flight highlight reel plays than some 8 year veterans.I can't say definitively that this coaching staff will give the most productive player the ball, but I fully expect Blount to be more productive per touch than Martin in 2012.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

1) Dwill vs Jstew My link

Jstew rookie numbers= 184 carries 836 yards 4.5 10 TD, 8 receptions 47 yards 0 TDs

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley (Couldn't find a player spotlight, however they were later picks than Martin)

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller My link

Spiller rookie numbers=74 carries 283 yards 3.8 0 TD, 24 receptions 157 yards 1 TD

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas My link

Daniel Thomas rookie numbers= 165 carries 581 yards 3.5 0 TD, 12 receptions 72 yards 1 TD

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams My link

Ryan Williams was injured for all of his rookie season

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram My link

Mark Ingram rookie numbers= 122 carries 474 yards 3.9 5 TD, 11 receptions 46 yards 0 TD

7) Addai vs Donald Brown My link

Donald Brown rookie numbers= 78 carries 281 yards 3.6 3 TD, 11 receptions 169 yards 0 TD

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones My link

Felix Jones rookie numbers= 30 carries 266 yards 8.9 3 TD, 2 receptions 10 yards 0 TD

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells My link

Beanie Wells rookie numbers= 176 carries 793 yards 7 TD, 12 receptions 143 yards 0 TD

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden My link

McFadden rookie numbers= 113 carries 499 yards 4.4 4 TD, 29 receptions 285 yards 0 TD

11) Tolbert vs Mathews My link

Mathews rookie numbers= 158 carries 678 yards 7 TD, 22 receptions 145 yards 0 TD

 

[az_prof]

I like Martin a lot and think he will start and be a three down back. Not really sure what his projections will be as I don't have a good feel for the Tampa offense, but I do think Martin will be a top 16 back as a minimum, if he is healthy.

 

[jurb26]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

That's besides the point. People can hype whoever they want. My point was only that the reality in the NFL is far more about who's better, not who's younger. You're original post made it seem as if the older back was keeping his spot simply because he was the older, more experienced player. That's misleading IMO. The guys who kept their role generally kept it because they are better players. Maybe we didn't know that then but it's still the reality. If Martin is better, then he will likely play despite his youth. If he's not, Blount will likley continue to play the major role.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

That's besides the point. People can hype whoever they want. My point was only that the reality in the NFL is far more about who's better, not who's younger. You're original post made it seem as if the older back was keeping his spot simply because he was the older, more experienced player. That's misleading IMO. The guys who kept their role generally kept it because they are better players. Maybe we didn't know that then but it's still the reality. If Martin is better, then he will likely play despite his youth. If he's not, Blount will likley continue to play the major role.

I respectfully disagree. I posted all of those links because many times people have thought the rookie would immediately take over. That simply hasn't been the case in each of the situations I posted.Now some of those were due to injuries, but I also think rookie RB's are more prone to injuries as well. I think they have a correlation.

 

[FF Ninja]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

That's besides the point. People can hype whoever they want. My point was only that the reality in the NFL is far more about who's better, not who's younger. You're original post made it seem as if the older back was keeping his spot simply because he was the older, more experienced player. That's misleading IMO. The guys who kept their role generally kept it because they are better players. Maybe we didn't know that then but it's still the reality. If Martin is better, then he will likely play despite his youth. If he's not, Blount will likley continue to play the major role.

Regardless of the perceived point of his post, the research shows that just because a regime drafts a rookie RB early does not mean he's a shoe in to start. It was asserted earlier that they didn't trade up for him not to play him so it is a given that he'll get the most carries. I think you and benson actually agree. The better player is likely going to play. At least for 2012, I think Blount will be the better RB on the Bucs.

 

[butcher boy]

Greg Schiano traded to be able to pick Martin in the draft. It's obvious he's implementing a system tailored perfectly for Martin's skills.

The first part is very possibly true. The second part is pure speculation. The word obvious has no place here.

The first part IS true, not possibly. And these threads are all about speculation. In my case, I'm speculating that Schiano became the coach, saw the team's abysmal state, identified Martin as a back very similar to one he had success with in college, and made sure he got him. All of those signs point to him wanting Martin to play a significant role. Check out FBG's page on Martin. They all pretty much say the exact same thing. The "speculation" that Martin possesses superior skill is also a widely regarded opinion. He's shown better pass catching and pass protection skills than Blount, and I'm not even counting the fact that my 88 year old grandmother could probably fumble less than Blount does.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Think about this…going into the 2011 season, the Buccaneers had atop their depth chart a player who at the beginning of the prior season was a UDFA trying to make another team. LeGarrette Blount turned in a fantastic 2010 season no doubt as soon as TB gave him a shot. But behind Blount, the Bucs had absolutely nothing. Kregg Lumpkin? Earnest Graham? I mean, this position may have been the most devoid of talent as any in the NFL. It was asking a lot of Blount to carry the load in 2011. Remember, in 2010, he had the benefit of a quasi-resurgent Cadillac Williams.

So out goes the old coaching staff, and in comes Schiano, Carl Nicks, V-Jax and a new attention to detail and accountability. Gone are catch phrases like 'youngry'. Martin was a good get for the Bucs. They absolutely needed a guy that if they needed to, could give him the ball 250-275 times. Whether he’ll do that or not remains to be seen but with Blount being simply an unacceptable option in the passing game both as a receiver and protector, this was a giant void.

But people are bidding Blount farewell far too soon IMO. The last 5 games of the season, the Bucs average halftime deficit was 19.6 points. Tough to get a run game established, particularly with a guy with no passing game skills, in those types of situations. Whether the murmurs about Blount packing it in were true or not…fact of matter is that if you watched that team during this putrid 5 game stretch, it would have been tough to tell the difference between Blount and any other Buc. I get that Schiano is going to want to build a team with his guys, but smart coaches give holdovers a chance to be their guys too. I wouldn’t write off Blount quite yet.

In the 9 games he played prior to the Bucs tanking from 12/3 on Blount put up a 772(YFS)/4 line. Prorated over 16 games, that’s a solid 1372/7. My point is, I don’t see Blount disappearing. Blount is going to get touches and he’s going to do it at the expense of Martin. Martin is still going to be a central cog in the offense, but bad teams need to make best use of all their assets, and for lack of a better term, Blount is an asset.

Will it break down to a 50/50 split? 60/40? 40/60? It will probably be in that range…but running games go bye-bye if the defense doesn’t prevent 20 point halftime deficits on a consistent basis, and for the most part, for a team that pretty much stopped being able to stop the run last year, their primary defensive additions were Mark Barron/Eric Wright. They get some guys back from injury, notably Gerald McCoy. But Martin’s success, or lack of it, will depend on his defenses ability to step up. Can it? I have significant doubts. I also have significant doubts about Josh Freeman. Now entering Year 4, I’m not getting a ‘franchise signal’ caller vibe from him.

So while I like Martin’s long term chances for success…I think he’ll be a good NFL RB, I don’t like his situation in 2012 and it baffles me that a guy like Peyton Hillis is goin on average 2.5 rounds later than Martin.

Prediction: 178 Rushes, 758 Rushing Yards, 4 TD’s; 34 Receptions 278 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

 

[PhantomJB]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

I think the point made with this list isa good one and there may be another example with some similarities to Martin's situation worth noting(or maybe you omitted on purpose).In 2008 Ray Rice (the guy many are obviously comparing Martin to) was drafted 2nd round. Don't know if he was "hyped" or not, but pretty clear he was the eventual heir-apparent to the aging McGahee and FB Leron McClain.He was also drafted by rookie head coach Harbaugh so it was "his guy for the future" vs. the incumbents.Stats-wise, Rice finished '08 third on the team in rushing with 454 yds (McClain = 902, McGahee = 671). Rice did lead RB's in receiving with 33 catches. Obviously, none of us knows in June how Schiano will split carries this year. But this and your other examples clearly show that, even though the writing may be on the wall long-term, in their rookie year (for whatever reasons) it is far from a given that the better talent immediately becomes a three-down back.

 

[Buck Stop]

Martin is being under appreciated in this thread for sure.

 

[FF Ninja]

Greg Schiano traded to be able to pick Martin in the draft. It's obvious he's implementing a system tailored perfectly for Martin's skills.

The first part is very possibly true. The second part is pure speculation. The word obvious has no place here.

The first part IS true, not possibly. And these threads are all about speculation. In my case, I'm speculating that Schiano became the coach, saw the team's abysmal state, identified Martin as a back very similar to one he had success with in college, and made sure he got him. All of those signs point to him wanting Martin to play a significant role. Check out FBG's page on Martin. They all pretty much say the exact same thing. The "speculation" that Martin possesses superior skill is also a widely regarded opinion. He's shown better pass catching and pass protection skills than Blount, and I'm not even counting the fact that my 88 year old grandmother could probably fumble less than Blount does.

I said "possibly" because coaches don't usually have final say in draft picks. It is also possible that the GM made the move and Schiano made the comparison to Rice after the fact. Just because he compares a first round talent to a player he used to have doesn't mean HE made the GM make the pick. So I'm going to stick with "possibly" true rather than concrete fact.Yes, these are about speculation, but when you state something as obvious then you are making a switch from speculation to fact stating. Just because they drafted a running back w/the 31st pick doesn't mean they are tailoring the offense to him. It sure isn't an obvious fact. I mean, clear things up for me here. Are you envisioning a ball control offense like Baltimore? I would think with Freeman and Williams and now the highly paid VJax that they'll be airing it out quite a bit. I don't know, though, so I'm not going to speak definitively.People always speculate that the first round picks are more talented than the incumbents. But I'm not going to bet on a guy coming out of the WAC to be better than a guy averaging 4.64 ypc in the NFL. To me, this just appears to be another case of premature rookie hype.Finally, do you really think Blount can't correct his fumbles? Part of it has to be attributed to the fact that he refuses to go down. A problem that cost Peterson and the Vikings a shot at the super bowl. But it has been noted that Blount is practicing holding the ball differently this year. Sounds like he's fixing the problem. He's also been working on his receiving and pass pro, so we'll see how he takes to the new instruction. Seems like he never got coached on it before.

 

[bengalbuck]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

That's besides the point. People can hype whoever they want. My point was only that the reality in the NFL is far more about who's better, not who's younger. You're original post made it seem as if the older back was keeping his spot simply because he was the older, more experienced player. That's misleading IMO. The guys who kept their role generally kept it because they are better players. Maybe we didn't know that then but it's still the reality. If Martin is better, then he will likely play despite his youth. If he's not, Blount will likley continue to play the major role.

I respectfully disagree. I posted all of those links because many times people have thought the rookie would immediately take over. That simply hasn't been the case in each of the situations I posted.Now some of those were due to injuries, but I also think rookie RB's are more prone to injuries as well. I think they have a correlation.

It's a fair point and I do think we are quick to automatically assume a talented rookie RB will immediately jump ahead of the veteran. However, often the biggest thing keeping the rookie off of the field is struggling to pick up pass blocking. In this case, its been said Blount is one of the worst pass blocking backs in the league while Martin was considered to be right up there with Richardson as the best pass blocking back in this class. When you look at skill sets, intelligence and doing all the little things right, Martin has the veteran skill set while Blount is the one who has the look of a rookie. This is also an area where I don't think you can simply look at YPC as the only factor as to whether a RB played well. Blount struggled with all the little things, displayed immaturity, etc. I just don't see it with him. Will he take enough carries to limit Martin's value as a rookie? Maybe. Will Blount get enough touches to have fantasy relevancy? I highly, highly doubt it barring an injury to Martin.

 

[r3t2]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

1) Dwill vs Jstew My link

Jstew rookie numbers= 184 carries 836 yards 4.5 10 TD, 8 receptions 47 yards 0 TDs

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley (Couldn't find a player spotlight, however they were later picks than Martin)

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller My link

Spiller rookie numbers=74 carries 283 yards 3.8 0 TD, 24 receptions 157 yards 1 TD

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas My link

Daniel Thomas rookie numbers= 165 carries 581 yards 3.5 0 TD, 12 receptions 72 yards 1 TD

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams My link

Ryan Williams was injured for all of his rookie season

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram My link

Mark Ingram rookie numbers= 122 carries 474 yards 3.9 5 TD, 11 receptions 46 yards 0 TD

7) Addai vs Donald Brown My link

Donald Brown rookie numbers= 78 carries 281 yards 3.6 3 TD, 11 receptions 169 yards 0 TD

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones My link

Felix Jones rookie numbers= 30 carries 266 yards 8.9 3 TD, 2 receptions 10 yards 0 TD

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells My link

Beanie Wells rookie numbers= 176 carries 793 yards 7 TD, 12 receptions 143 yards 0 TD

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden My link

McFadden rookie numbers= 113 carries 499 yards 4.4 4 TD, 29 receptions 285 yards 0 TD

11) Tolbert vs Mathews My link

Mathews rookie numbers= 158 carries 678 yards 7 TD, 22 receptions 145 yards 0 TD

just to pretend to be impartial, could someone start throwing in chris johnson vs lendale white? adrian peterson vs chester taylor, MJD vs fred taylor (both good), reggie vs deuce (1300 yds, 8 TDs, 88 REC).

also, some of these comparisons stretch the main point of the thread pretty thin. reggie bush was not an incumbent for miami and until last year played a different role in the league. same for sproles. i doubt either team saw their results coming or they wouldn't have drafted thomas/ingram as high as they did. hightower and fargas were not in the same class of athlete as most of the list, nor was tolbert. it looks like you're cherry-picking.

i think the point is: accomplished incumbent will not be usurped by highly-touted rookie. both have to be true to prove your point. otherwise, if you just want to base it on rookie accomplishments we could add in portis, james, cadillac, forte, kev smith, and even moreno and ronnie brown had semi-effective rookie fantasy seasons.

martin 240/1050/6 - 30/220/2.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

This is just off the top of my head, so a thousand pardons if I remember incorrectly... my responses in bold:

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

1) Dwill vs Jstew My link

Jstew rookie numbers= 184 carries 836 yards 4.5 10 TD, 8 receptions 47 yards 0 TDs

DWilly started out slow as a rookie and didn't show studliness the year before Stewart was drafted... then he became a mega stud. He was in his physical prime. Not a terrible example in that Blount is in his physical prime, but DWilly is much better than Blount, imo, which makes this a mediocre comparison.

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley (Couldn't find a player spotlight, however they were later picks than Martin)

A few people expected Vereen to have a chance to take over, but most expected the NE RBBC to continue. Vereen's injury in camp derailed any chance for him to compete.

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller My link

Spiller rookie numbers=74 carries 283 yards 3.8 0 TD, 24 receptions 157 yards 1 TD

Good example.

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas My link

Daniel Thomas rookie numbers= 165 carries 581 yards 3.5 0 TD, 12 receptions 72 yards 1 TD

Terrible example. Bush was signed to a big contract the same season that Thomas was drafted. Everybody assumed two things: that it would be a RBBC and that Bush would get hurt. Well, it was a RBBC until it was Thomas that got hurt, then Bush really seemed to elevate his play.

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams My link

Ryan Williams was injured for all of his rookie season

ACL. Terrible example proves nothing. (though I would have thought a RBBC until Beanie got hurt)

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram My link

Mark Ingram rookie numbers= 122 carries 474 yards 3.9 5 TD, 11 receptions 46 yards 0 TD

Ingram got hurt early and stayed gimpy and wasn't going to take any receptions away from Sproles anyway.

7) Addai vs Donald Brown My link

Donald Brown rookie numbers= 78 carries 281 yards 3.6 3 TD, 11 receptions 169 yards 0 TD

Good example.

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones My link

Felix Jones rookie numbers= 30 carries 266 yards 8.9 3 TD, 2 receptions 10 yards 0 TD

Felix was injured, and it was going to be some sort of committee even is he was healthy.

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells My link

Beanie Wells rookie numbers= 176 carries 793 yards 7 TD, 12 receptions 143 yards 0 TD

Didn't Beanie get hurt in camp and play gimpy all year? I don't clearly remember this one.

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden My link

McFadden rookie numbers= 113 carries 499 yards 4.4 4 TD, 29 receptions 285 yards 0 TD

McFadden was injured in week two, after compiling 21 carries for 160 yards. The injury limited him the rest of the season.

11) Tolbert vs Mathews My link

Mathews rookie numbers= 158 carries 678 yards 7 TD, 22 receptions 145 yards 0 TD

Mathews started his career with 20 touches in his first game. Then he injured his ankle in week two and was hobbled the rest of the season.

I'm not calling you out or anything, but most of these examples were injury related. Nobody can predict injuries. I don't think most of these examples supports anything related to whether or not Blount will hold of the rookie, though if Martin gets injured, I am sure it will be Blount that gets the touches.

 

[mjr]

Tampa Bay ranked dead last in the league with a lowly 346 rushing attempts in 2011, scoring a single-digit grand total of TDs on the ground all year long. Even if Schiano & Co. were to add 100 more rush attempts on top of that, they still would have only ranked in the middle of the pack by last season's NFL rush attempt standards. Clearly, Martin was brought in to boost Tampa's ailing ground stats, which were comparatively weak enough to explain the move of trading up for a known entity in an attempt to correct. Therefor, I think it's a mistake to automatically deduce that the move means Blount's days as a top contributor have come to an end.

While I do like Martin's skill set and situation, I don't believe the rook is going to walk in as Tampa's sole ground game savior in 2012 with 200+ rush attempts and double digit TDs while Blount rides the pine waiting for change of pace opportunities or to give Martin his breathers. Such a suggestion would not only put a lot of faith in the rookie, it nearly bestows upon him the ability to single-handedly vault Tampa's ground game into an entirely new level of professional play. Any projections ballparking 1000 and 10 TDs would suggest Martin is capable on nearly besting what Tampa's entire offense was capable of doing on the ground last year (1458 yards, 9TDs team total). And, even if Martin were to shine in such a scenario, the move to reduce Blount's contribution in such a way would only serve to diminish Tampa's ground game overall when it would make so much more sense to keep Blount active in the rotation, keeping that ground attack fresh.

Rather than take carries directly away from Blount as some seem to believe, I prefer to think the majority of Martin's carries will come from both an increase in the teams overall rushing attempts on the 2012 season as well as a number of carries that were previously divided up between QB's, backup RB's and even WR's and TE's. In short, I think Blount's role is stable even with the rookie's addition and Tampa's backfield will mostly take on the now NFL-typical 50/50 RBBC approach (barring injuries).

Though I could see Martin taking on a more prominent role in 2013 and beyond as Schiano's game philosophy coalesces, I don't expect more than the following out of him in 2012 unless Blount misses significant time with an injury:

170 carries, 730 yards, 5 TDs.

19 receptions, 171 yards, 1 TD.

 

[jurb26]

Tampa Bay ranked dead last in the league with a lowly 346 rushing attempts in 2011, scoring a single-digit grand total of TDs on the ground all year long. Even if Schiano & Co. were to add 100 more rush attempts on top of that, they still would have only ranked in the middle of the pack by last season's NFL rush attempt standards. Clearly, Martin was brought in to boost Tampa's ailing ground stats, which were comparatively weak enough to explain the move of trading up for a known entity in an attempt to correct. Therefor, I think it's a mistake to automatically deduce that the move means Blount's days as a top contributor have come to an end.

While I do like Martin's skill set and situation, I don't believe the rook is going to walk in as Tampa's sole ground game savior in 2012 with 200+ rush attempts and double digit TDs while Blount rides the pine waiting for change of pace opportunities or to give Martin his breathers. Such a suggestion would not only put a lot of faith in the rookie, it nearly bestows upon him the ability to single-handedly vault Tampa's ground game into an entirely new level of professional play. Any projections ballparking 1000 and 10 TDs would suggest Martin is capable on nearly besting what Tampa's entire offense was capable of doing on the ground last year (1458 yards, 9TDs team total). And, even if Martin were to shine in such a scenario, the move to reduce Blount's contribution in such a way would only serve to diminish Tampa's ground game overall when it would make so much more sense to keep Blount active in the rotation, keeping that ground attack fresh.

I don't think anyone is under the misconception that Martin alone is going to catapult the TB running game into a top ranking unit. The optimisim comes from the multitude of additions TB has made this off-season on the Oline, see link and qoute bellow, along with the addition of a premier down the field threat at WR in Jackson.

After drafting no offensive linemen it should be no surprise that the Buccaneers are looking to upgrade their offensive line. Of the 16 undrafted free agents they have signed, 6 are offensive linemen. The Bucs have a high-quality starting offensive line with the likes of Donald Penn, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph. They do have an issue at right tackle, though, as starter Jeremy Trueblood is incapable of stopping any pass rusher with a little speed. The Bucs' depth is less than ideal, however, as backup T Demar Dotson is still a developmental prospect, and backup G/C Ted Larsen has the ability but not the consistency to start.

This should be a vastly improved unit because of the sum of all these parts, not just the addition of Martin. This is regardless of Martin's role. If Martin proves to be an upgrade to Blount then it only sweetens the pot IMO.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I'll go on record saying I think Blount is more productive per touch than Martin in 2012. But this staff drafted Martin so we'll see how they handle the situation. I've cited the 2011 and 2010 RB elusive ratings in several threads, which I think shed some light on just how good of a back Blount is. The whole team struggled in 2011, so to me his 4.2 ypc was actually pretty impressive considering how often he got hit behind the line. With Nicks added to the line and a new coaching staff, I won't be the least bit surprised to see him return to his 5.0 ypc form.

Martin was a late first round pick out of Boise State. It could easily take him a year to get used to the pro game. Even though Blount has been working on his pass protection and receiving, I think the coaching staff lets Martin handle 3rd downs.

Blount 220 carries x 4.8 ypc = 1056 yds 8 TD, 15 rec x 8 = 120 yds 0 TD

Martin 120 carries x 4.2 ypc = 504 yds 2 TD, 30 rec x 7 = 210 yds 1 TD

Of course you know you are in the minority with this opinion. Most of people here are saying the shark move is Martin and to sell Blount while you still can. But I agree fully with you. I think most people aren't aware of Blount's "want to", and he has it in spades. Not a knock on Martin so much as to emphasize how easily people are wishing for Blounts demise. I'll go on record to co-sign your projection.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

This is just off the top of my head, so a thousand pardons if I remember incorrectly... my responses in bold:

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

1) Dwill vs Jstew My link

Jstew rookie numbers= 184 carries 836 yards 4.5 10 TD, 8 receptions 47 yards 0 TDs

DWilly started out slow as a rookie and didn't show studliness the year before Stewart was drafted... then he became a mega stud. He was in his physical prime. Not a terrible example in that Blount is in his physical prime, but DWilly is much better than Blount, imo, which makes this a mediocre comparison.

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley (Couldn't find a player spotlight, however they were later picks than Martin)

A few people expected Vereen to have a chance to take over, but most expected the NE RBBC to continue. Vereen's injury in camp derailed any chance for him to compete.

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller My link

Spiller rookie numbers=74 carries 283 yards 3.8 0 TD, 24 receptions 157 yards 1 TD

Good example.

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas My link

Daniel Thomas rookie numbers= 165 carries 581 yards 3.5 0 TD, 12 receptions 72 yards 1 TD

Terrible example. Bush was signed to a big contract the same season that Thomas was drafted. Everybody assumed two things: that it would be a RBBC and that Bush would get hurt. Well, it was a RBBC until it was Thomas that got hurt, then Bush really seemed to elevate his play.

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams My link

Ryan Williams was injured for all of his rookie season

ACL. Terrible example proves nothing. (though I would have thought a RBBC until Beanie got hurt)

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram My link

Mark Ingram rookie numbers= 122 carries 474 yards 3.9 5 TD, 11 receptions 46 yards 0 TD

Ingram got hurt early and stayed gimpy and wasn't going to take any receptions away from Sproles anyway.

7) Addai vs Donald Brown My link

Donald Brown rookie numbers= 78 carries 281 yards 3.6 3 TD, 11 receptions 169 yards 0 TD

Good example.

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones My link

Felix Jones rookie numbers= 30 carries 266 yards 8.9 3 TD, 2 receptions 10 yards 0 TD

Felix was injured, and it was going to be some sort of committee even is he was healthy.

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells My link

Beanie Wells rookie numbers= 176 carries 793 yards 7 TD, 12 receptions 143 yards 0 TD

Didn't Beanie get hurt in camp and play gimpy all year? I don't clearly remember this one.

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden My link

McFadden rookie numbers= 113 carries 499 yards 4.4 4 TD, 29 receptions 285 yards 0 TD

McFadden was injured in week two, after compiling 21 carries for 160 yards. The injury limited him the rest of the season.

11) Tolbert vs Mathews My link

Mathews rookie numbers= 158 carries 678 yards 7 TD, 22 receptions 145 yards 0 TD

Mathews started his career with 20 touches in his first game. Then he injured his ankle in week two and was hobbled the rest of the season.

I'm not calling you out or anything, but most of these examples were injury related. Nobody can predict injuries. I don't think most of these examples supports anything related to whether or not Blount will hold of the rookie, though if Martin gets injured, I am sure it will be Blount that gets the touches.

Very good points and I didn't take it the wrong way. I simply listed as many recent higher draft picks that got a lot of hype and failed to live up to expectations. Every situation is different. I own both Martin and Blount in multiple leagues, so I really don't care who takes the starting job. I do think that people are pushing Blount(the leading rusher from his rookie class) aside way too early and the Shark move is to acquire Blount for pennies on the dollar.

 

[butcher boy]

This is just off the top of my head, so a thousand pardons if I remember incorrectly... my responses in bold:

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

1) Dwill vs Jstew My link

Jstew rookie numbers= 184 carries 836 yards 4.5 10 TD, 8 receptions 47 yards 0 TDs

DWilly started out slow as a rookie and didn't show studliness the year before Stewart was drafted... then he became a mega stud. He was in his physical prime. Not a terrible example in that Blount is in his physical prime, but DWilly is much better than Blount, imo, which makes this a mediocre comparison.

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley (Couldn't find a player spotlight, however they were later picks than Martin)

A few people expected Vereen to have a chance to take over, but most expected the NE RBBC to continue. Vereen's injury in camp derailed any chance for him to compete.

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller My link

Spiller rookie numbers=74 carries 283 yards 3.8 0 TD, 24 receptions 157 yards 1 TD

Good example.

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas My link

Daniel Thomas rookie numbers= 165 carries 581 yards 3.5 0 TD, 12 receptions 72 yards 1 TD

Terrible example. Bush was signed to a big contract the same season that Thomas was drafted. Everybody assumed two things: that it would be a RBBC and that Bush would get hurt. Well, it was a RBBC until it was Thomas that got hurt, then Bush really seemed to elevate his play.

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams My link

Ryan Williams was injured for all of his rookie season

ACL. Terrible example proves nothing. (though I would have thought a RBBC until Beanie got hurt)

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram My link

Mark Ingram rookie numbers= 122 carries 474 yards 3.9 5 TD, 11 receptions 46 yards 0 TD

Ingram got hurt early and stayed gimpy and wasn't going to take any receptions away from Sproles anyway.

7) Addai vs Donald Brown My link

Donald Brown rookie numbers= 78 carries 281 yards 3.6 3 TD, 11 receptions 169 yards 0 TD

Good example.

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones My link

Felix Jones rookie numbers= 30 carries 266 yards 8.9 3 TD, 2 receptions 10 yards 0 TD

Felix was injured, and it was going to be some sort of committee even is he was healthy.

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells My link

Beanie Wells rookie numbers= 176 carries 793 yards 7 TD, 12 receptions 143 yards 0 TD

Didn't Beanie get hurt in camp and play gimpy all year? I don't clearly remember this one.

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden My link

McFadden rookie numbers= 113 carries 499 yards 4.4 4 TD, 29 receptions 285 yards 0 TD

McFadden was injured in week two, after compiling 21 carries for 160 yards. The injury limited him the rest of the season.

11) Tolbert vs Mathews My link

Mathews rookie numbers= 158 carries 678 yards 7 TD, 22 receptions 145 yards 0 TD

Mathews started his career with 20 touches in his first game. Then he injured his ankle in week two and was hobbled the rest of the season.

I'm not calling you out or anything, but most of these examples were injury related. Nobody can predict injuries. I don't think most of these examples supports anything related to whether or not Blount will hold of the rookie, though if Martin gets injured, I am sure it will be Blount that gets the touches.

Very good points and I didn't take it the wrong way. I simply listed as many recent higher draft picks that got a lot of hype and failed to live up to expectations. Every situation is different. I own both Martin and Blount in multiple leagues, so I really don't care who takes the starting job. I do think that people are pushing Blount(the leading rusher from his rookie class) aside way too early and the Shark move is to acquire Blount for pennies on the dollar.

The reason I put Blount aside right now is by looking at what's happened. He was horrible last year. Yes I know the whole team was horrible, but he was absolutely attrocious at the end of the year. Compare to MJD who still put up elite numbers in a crappy offense. Then you have a new coaching staff come in and immediately trade to be able to draft a RB. I'll do a complete 180 if the work Blount is putting in really does pay off, but until then I'm looking at the above as a sign that there's a changing of the guard in Tamps.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

1.) TB's top 2 RBs put up the following stat line in 2011: 221 - 1019 - 9, 41 - 311 - 0

2.) TB was 30th in rushing and 32nd in run defense. The team sucks (or at least they did last year).

Even with some improvement, I don't see the Bucs being able to produce anything super exciting at RB. What modest production they do provide looks pretty likely to be split between at least two players, with Blount getting a bit more in the way of carries and TDs and Martin getting more catches.

Martin - 125 rushes for 500, 25 catches for 200, 3 TDs

Blount - 150 rushes for 675, 15 catches for 100, 6 TDs

Wouldn't take Martin as my RB2 (which is where he's going). Might take Blount as my RB4 (his current cost) but wouldn't be thrilled with him there either.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Looks like Blount will be a better value than Martin. If you want Martin you have to go nearly all in and draft him as a starter-I think I'd rather draft Blount much(?) later and stash him

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Listen to the June 28th Audible podcast for our experts view. they tend to think that Blount is the value pick and has the talent to be the lead back and just needs to foucs. I am a Martin owner and don't like to hear this but to dismiss it out of hand because it doesn't suit me would be folly.

 

[mjr]

I don't think anyone is under the misconception that Martin alone is going to catapult the TB running game into a top ranking unit. The optimisim comes from the multitude of additions TB has made this off-season on the Oline, see link and qoute bellow, along with the addition of a premier down the field threat at WR in Jackson.

After drafting no offensive linemen it should be no surprise that the Buccaneers are looking to upgrade their offensive line. Of the 16 undrafted free agents they have signed, 6 are offensive linemen. The Bucs have a high-quality starting offensive line with the likes of Donald Penn, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph. They do have an issue at right tackle, though, as starter Jeremy Trueblood is incapable of stopping any pass rusher with a little speed. The Bucs' depth is less than ideal, however, as backup T Demar Dotson is still a developmental prospect, and backup G/C Ted Larsen has the ability but not the consistency to start.

This should be a vastly improved unit because of the sum of all these parts, not just the addition of Martin. This is regardless of Martin's role. If Martin proves to be an upgrade to Blount then it only sweetens the pot IMO.

I don't know, man. I don't see much reason for optimism when TB passes on all chances to upgrade the OL through the draft, opting instead to leave it to a half-dozen UDFA's coming in for tryouts. To me, that pretty much says "not a priority". Jackson does add a nice wrinkle, but it's going to take a big increase in 1st downs and points on the board before for any kind of Jackson-born aerial attack can effect the run game positively.

 

[jurb26]

I don't think anyone is under the misconception that Martin alone is going to catapult the TB running game into a top ranking unit. The optimisim comes from the multitude of additions TB has made this off-season on the Oline, see link and qoute bellow, along with the addition of a premier down the field threat at WR in Jackson.

After drafting no offensive linemen it should be no surprise that the Buccaneers are looking to upgrade their offensive line. Of the 16 undrafted free agents they have signed, 6 are offensive linemen. The Bucs have a high-quality starting offensive line with the likes of Donald Penn, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph. They do have an issue at right tackle, though, as starter Jeremy Trueblood is incapable of stopping any pass rusher with a little speed. The Bucs' depth is less than ideal, however, as backup T Demar Dotson is still a developmental prospect, and backup G/C Ted Larsen has the ability but not the consistency to start.

This should be a vastly improved unit because of the sum of all these parts, not just the addition of Martin. This is regardless of Martin's role. If Martin proves to be an upgrade to Blount then it only sweetens the pot IMO.

I don't know, man. I don't see much reason for optimism when TB passes on all chances to upgrade the OL through the draft, opting instead to leave it to a half-dozen UDFA's coming in for tryouts. To me, that pretty much says "not a priority". Jackson does add a nice wrinkle, but it's going to take a big increase in 1st downs and points on the board before for any kind of Jackson-born aerial attack can effect the run game positively.

Nicks is perhaps the best G in football. That doesn't get you at least a little bit excited about improvement? I thought Nicks was one of the best FA signings of the year. He alone is a massive upgrade IMO.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I don't think anyone is under the misconception that Martin alone is going to catapult the TB running game into a top ranking unit. The optimisim comes from the multitude of additions TB has made this off-season on the Oline, see link and qoute bellow, along with the addition of a premier down the field threat at WR in Jackson.

After drafting no offensive linemen it should be no surprise that the Buccaneers are looking to upgrade their offensive line. Of the 16 undrafted free agents they have signed, 6 are offensive linemen. The Bucs have a high-quality starting offensive line with the likes of Donald Penn, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph. They do have an issue at right tackle, though, as starter Jeremy Trueblood is incapable of stopping any pass rusher with a little speed. The Bucs' depth is less than ideal, however, as backup T Demar Dotson is still a developmental prospect, and backup G/C Ted Larsen has the ability but not the consistency to start.

This should be a vastly improved unit because of the sum of all these parts, not just the addition of Martin. This is regardless of Martin's role. If Martin proves to be an upgrade to Blount then it only sweetens the pot IMO.

I don't know, man. I don't see much reason for optimism when TB passes on all chances to upgrade the OL through the draft, opting instead to leave it to a half-dozen UDFA's coming in for tryouts. To me, that pretty much says "not a priority". Jackson does add a nice wrinkle, but it's going to take a big increase in 1st downs and points on the board before for any kind of Jackson-born aerial attack can effect the run game positively.

Nicks is perhaps the best G in football. That doesn't get you at least a little bit excited about improvement? I thought Nicks was one of the best FA signings of the year. He alone is a massive upgrade IMO.

 

[texasbirdfan]

to boil it down for me. Pass catching Martin > Blount

Pass blocking Martin > Blount

Pedigree Martin > Blount

NFL 2012 and beyond baring rule changes: pass, pass, etc.

 

[Newmancrew]

I was anticipating a pro Martin following in this thread. More like the opposite.

 

[karmarooster]

Does this get the train back on track?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/22/legarrette-blounts-work-ethic-a-major-problem-in-tampa-bay/

 

[chickensoup]

I think Martin gets the better numbers for the year overall but Blount is the better play by ADP. And you're not going to like starting either player barring injury. Martin could be a flex play but is drafted as a RB 2 for a team that went QB or WR first and/or second round. He's been taken as high as the third round, nuts to me

Martin 200 rushes 4.6 ypc 920 yards 40 rec 7 ypr 280 yards 7 total TD

Blount 180 carries 4.5 ypc 810 yards 15 rec 6 ypr 90 yards 5 total TD

 

[bengalbuck]

Does this get the train back on track?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/22/legarrette-blounts-work-ethic-a-major-problem-in-tampa-bay/

It certainly backs up my opinion on the matter. People buying into the puff pieces about Blount suddenly becoming smart, dedicated and mastering the intricacies of the passing game and his blocking assignments are like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. I don't love Martin this season (though I think he is definitely a top 20 RB) as I do think Blount could take enough carries to limit his value. However, I think people predicting that Blount will be the larger part of the RBBC are way off base.

 

[TheFanatic]

Does this get the train back on track?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/22/legarrette-blounts-work-ethic-a-major-problem-in-tampa-bay/

That rips the guy for what he did in the past, but if he were still doing that crap, no way he would be getting first team reps. Terrible article. From everything I've read, the guy is beyond motivated and keeping the kid on the bench so far (or at least with the second team). Who knows how long that lasts, but I would think if he was pulling that stuff this year, something they don't really mention at all in the article, then he wouldn't be getting the reps he is. Terrible speculation by a reporter who is dwelling on the past and not looking at what is happening right now.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I think Blount will end up losing more touches as the season goes on. He's not a factor in terms of 3rd Downs and in 385 career carries (with only 20 catches) he has 9 fumbles. Even last season he saw his carries go down from 201 to 184 despite having little competition from Earnest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin.

The fact that Martin was drafted in large part because of his ability to block and be a receiver will only help his case in Schiano's eyes (who already coached Ray Rice at Rutgers). He won't put up particularly splashy end of season numbers but they should be solid overall.

240 carries for 1,032 yards and 6 TD. 48 catches for 341 yards with 1 TD.

 

[renesauz]

I think Martin gets the better numbers for the year overall but Blount is the better play by ADP. And you're not going to like starting either player barring injury. Martin could be a flex play but is drafted as a RB 2 for a team that went QB or WR first and/or second round. He's been taken as high as the third round, nuts to meMartin 200 rushes 4.6 ypc 920 yards 40 rec 7 ypr 280 yards 7 total TDBlount 180 carries 4.5 ypc 810 yards 15 rec 6 ypr 90 yards 5 total TD

THIS.I'm all in on Martin in dynasty, but he's over-valued in redraft. Blount will remain relevant. As another poster pointed out, Tampa was so bad on the ground last year that there's plenty of room for Martin without taking a ton from Blount.

 

[beachbum]

240 rush 960 yds, 5TDs

65 rec 520, 2 TDs

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

I will include links to people hyping them their rookie seasons and rookie season stats

1) Dwill vs Jstew My link

Jstew rookie numbers= 184 carries 836 yards 4.5 10 TD, 8 receptions 47 yards 0 TDs

2) BJGE vs Vereen/Ridley (Couldn't find a player spotlight, however they were later picks than Martin)

3) Fred Jackson vs Spiller My link

Spiller rookie numbers=74 carries 283 yards 3.8 0 TD, 24 receptions 157 yards 1 TD

4) Reggie Bush vs Daniel Thomas My link

Daniel Thomas rookie numbers= 165 carries 581 yards 3.5 0 TD, 12 receptions 72 yards 1 TD

5) Beanie Wells vs Ryan Williams My link

Ryan Williams was injured for all of his rookie season

6) Sproles/Thomas/Ivory vs Mark Ingram My link

Mark Ingram rookie numbers= 122 carries 474 yards 3.9 5 TD, 11 receptions 46 yards 0 TD

7) Addai vs Donald Brown My link

Donald Brown rookie numbers= 78 carries 281 yards 3.6 3 TD, 11 receptions 169 yards 0 TD

8) MBIII vs Felix Jones My link

Felix Jones rookie numbers= 30 carries 266 yards 8.9 3 TD, 2 receptions 10 yards 0 TD

9) Hightower vs Beanie Wells My link

Beanie Wells rookie numbers= 176 carries 793 yards 7 TD, 12 receptions 143 yards 0 TD

10) Justin Fargas vs McFadden My link

McFadden rookie numbers= 113 carries 499 yards 4.4 4 TD, 29 receptions 285 yards 0 TD

11) Tolbert vs Mathews My link

Mathews rookie numbers= 158 carries 678 yards 7 TD, 22 receptions 145 yards 0 TD

Nice post. I applaud the effort you put into this post, however I think some of the examples you have listed are incongruent to the Blount/Martin situation. It is my understanding that Martin has been drafted to replace Blount (Similar to the Fargas/McFadden scenario). Examples like Bush/Thomas are examples of a team drafting a RB with the intent of him complementing the incumbent.

For the purposes of the TB RB situation I think we can look to Fargas/McFadden, Hightower/Wells, Jackson/Spiller. Which, as you pointed out are all examples of a team drafting a RB and the RB not 'running away' with the job.

 

[Grahamburn]

That article is irrelevant. I hope nobody reads it thinking it's current information.

I really love Martin as a Buc fan and expect him to be a key cog in what I think is an up and coming offense, but Blount is the play in redraft leagues at his current ADP. This situation looks like a complete committee to me with Blount getting goalline looks and Martin playing on passing downs. Martin being drafted 4-5 rounds ahead of Blount is silly. Blount has shown he can be a productive runner in the NFL.

I actually see a lot of similarities here to the Beanie Wells/Ryan Williams situation in Arizona coming in to last season.

Talented RB has a tough season on a bad team, said team drafts a young player at the same position, fantasy players ignore the incumbent in favor of the rookie. Granted, Williams got hurt which led to Beanie's value increasing, but I'd argue he would have had a similar season regardless. This type of situation often lights a fire under the incumbent as it did with Beanie, and as it has with Blount it seems.

The Bucs will want to run the ball. If their defense can stop some people I expect 450+ rushes with 400 of those going to the RBs. Blount and Martin should dominate the touches as there isn't much else on the roster besides those two.

Blount: 196 carries at 4.7 ypc is 921 yards. 15 receptions at 8 ypr is 130 yards. 8 TDs

Martin: 170 carries at 4.4 ypc is 616 yards. 40 receptions at 8.4 ypr is 336 yards. 5 TDs.

 

[eric rymer]

fwiw.....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1275200-bucs-1st-round-pick-martin-opens-camp-as-lead-running-back

 

[baconisgood]

Does this get the train back on track?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/22/legarrette-blounts-work-ethic-a-major-problem-in-tampa-bay/

It certainly backs up my opinion on the matter. People buying into the puff pieces about Blount suddenly becoming smart, dedicated and mastering the intricacies of the passing game and his blocking assignments are like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. I don't love Martin this season (though I think he is definitely a top 20 RB) as I do think Blount could take enough carries to limit his value. However, I think people predicting that Blount will be the larger part of the RBBC are way off base.

I'm not trying to state that Blount will get it but nothing in that piece mentions anything that has happened yet this off season. There is a chance Blount gets "it" and is a stud for his career, a chance he gets it for just long enough to land a big contract and a chance he never gets it. I've heard no negative news this off season about him, but if I do I am inclined to very quickly drop him in my rankings.